Nothing long winded today. I've put in over five hours work below and still have three games to go. Wiped out and I'm sure it will show in some mistakes below. I will note that it's a surprise to see so many games starting early and off the main slate on Tuesday (six).
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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Nationals @ Orioles
One quality start for Jake Irvin over his last six, though he missed another one by just two outs. A strikeout rate to 17.1% over this stretch probably bears some responsibility. He’s also allowed 12 barrels (10.1%), but with just a 33% hard contact rate. It’s just that 10 of those 12 barrels have left the park. Still holding a 15.3 K-BB% on the season, estimators above his 3.76 ERA only range from 3.93 xFIP to a 4.11 FIP giving us a lot of confidence that we know who he is. The sinker is his highest graded pitch (65 PB), but he only throws it 17.9% of the time. May want to increase that against the Orioles, as it’s really the only pitch they struggle with (-0.32 wSI/C is eight worst).
Opp wRC+: 117 (20.9 K%, 119 Home)
DEF: -7
B30: 4.39
Trevor Rogers in two starts with the Orioles: 9.1 IP – 45 BF – 8 R (7 ER) – 1 HR – 5 BB – 5 K
Nothing has changed. The one change they have made is a small increase in sinker usage at the expense of a few four-seamers, which seems like maybe the right idea, considering his velocity dropped about a mph five starts back and stayed there. Batters from either side exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The sinker has just a 48 PB grade though with the fastball at 54 and the changeup at 60. He’s thrown four pitches all between 20-30% this year with just an 84 Stuff+ mark.
Opp wRC+: 84 (20.3 K%, 6.3 HR/FB)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.02
Irvin is the better pitcher right now and I feel somewhat confident stating that because his recent struggles have all been against above average offenses with his lone below average offense faced in that span resulting in seven innings of two run ball. At +140, I think it’s worth a shot he outpitches Rogers for five innings. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 4:45 EST: No change in WAS F5.
Cubs @ Guardians
No available line on this game at the time of writing and I’m not talking about Javier Assad more than I have to. Despite a K/SwStr above three (two is league average, three is Bartolo Colon and nobody else territory), he doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half or a PitchingBot grade above 46.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.2 K%, 108 Home, 76 L7 days)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.19
Matthew Boyd makes his season and team debut. He’s thrown just 84 innings since the beginning of the 2022 season with a 14.9 K-BB%. He struck out 12 of the 32 AAA batters he’s faced without a walk. Projections average around four and a quarter.
Opp wRC+: 99 (127 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.49
Update 4:20 EST: CLE adds a RHB in Noel, but also sit one (Thomas). Swish Analytics has Alfonso Marquez listed as the plate umpire. Could sway towards an under for Assad (3.5 Ks) if true.
Mariners @ Tigers
There is no line at this time on this game. George Kirby is suspected (Roster Resource), but not confirmed. Detroit got three runs in five innings in his last start. He hasn’t allowed more runs in 13 starts (22.7 K-BB%, 6.8% Barrels/BBE, 35.3% hard contact). Kirby doesn’t have an estimator reaching three and a half this season. All PitchingBot grades are at least 55, including a 71 grade sinker (23.2%, 1.5 RV/100). The Tigers are the worst offense in the league against sinkers (-1.18 wSI/C). Kirby’s K-BB is 6.4 points lower on the road this season than at home.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: -9
Seven quality starts for Tarik Skubal in his last eight (26.8 K-BB%). Only one with more than two runs. Only two less than seven innings. He doesn’t have an estimator reaching three. Skubal doesn’t have a PitchingBot grade below 52 with the slider (55) and changeup (67) matching up with pitches the Tigers have really struggled against (they really struggle against almost everything). Batters from either side are below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 93 (26.2 K%)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.24
Update 4:05 EST: No Raleigh or Polanco. Carpenter back, Malloy out.
Cardinals @ Reds
The Cardinals have Erick Fedde throwing a few more cutters at the expense of changeups, a change that was probably starting to happen even before the trade. He’s been fine (15.1 K-BB%, 8.1% Barrels/BBE, 36.9% hard hit rate), but estimators from a 3.82 dERA to a 4.07 SIERA exceed his 3.28 ERA by a bit more than half a run because he’s stranded 79.6% of his runners.
Opp wRC+: 90 (24.9 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 2.43
I’m essentially going to copy and update last week’s blurb on Greene, despite not his best start against the Marlins…
I’m ready to call this a breakout. Initially, Hunter Greene seemed to solve his hard contact and home run problems, while reducing his K-BB. Over his last eight starts though, Greene has posted a 23.6 K-BB% to drive his season rate up to 18.3%, while allowing just four barrels and a 30.3% hard contact rate. A 2.92 xERA is now the best of Greene’s estimators, nearly matching his 2.90 ERA with additional estimators more than half a run higher (as high as a 4.19 xFIP, due to his 35.3 GB%). There’s no way this man is a true four run talent or skill level right now. His 124 Stuff+ is among the league leaders (104 Pitching+) The slider (47 PB grade) still needs some work, but here he takes a 60 grade fastball (55.1%, 1.4 RV/100) against the second worst fastball offensive in the league (-0.6 wFA/C). Batters from either side run no higher than a .286 wOBA or xwOBA against him this year.
Opp wRC+: 104 (94 Road)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.53
Marlins @ Phillies
Don’t have a confirmed starter for the Marlins. RR lists Valente Bellozo, who’s served up a fine 16.9 K-BB% through four starts, but eight of 19 strikeouts with just one walk in a single start against the Red Sox. He also gave up five of his seven runs in that start. Pitch modeling does like the cutter (21.2%, 59 PB grade), but not the fastball (43.9%, 40 PB grade). He has a 4.74 Bot ERA and 74 Stuff+ (91 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 102 (114 Home)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.38
Taijuan Walker has spent nearly two months on the IL. His estimators average nearly five and half. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while pitch modeling sees him in the same range as Bellozo (5.26 Bot ERA, 89 Stuff+, 94 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 86 (78 Road)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.86
The Phillies are just league average against RHP and the bullpen has been atrocious over the last month, yet Taijuan Walker is a sizeable favorite over anybody?
Update 3:55 EST: A 3.24 loss on MIA ML made me question whether Walker was still pitching. I don't understand how he's a two to one favorite over anybody. Miami pen estimators now more than a run and a half better than Philly L30 days. I'm almost tempted to add to Miami.
Astros @ Rays
Yusei Kikuchi has struck out 19 of 45 batters since the walk, but also walked six with four runs over 11 innings against the Rays and Rangers. The changeup spike in his first start for Houston didn’t last and that makes sense considering it’s 37 PitchingBot grade, but they do have him throwing more sliders, which does jive with that pitch’s 55 PB grade. The curve (66) and four-seam (70) are elite pitchers though, while Kikuchi has 110 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ marks. With a 4.62 ERA more than half a run above all estimators (20.8 K-BB%, but 10.1% Barrels/BBE and a 44.8% hard hit rate), Kikuchi is still due some regression from a .336 BABIP, but it’s not like the Houston defense is going to improve on what Toronto did for him.
Opp wRC+: 117 (24.6 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 4.32
Shane Baz is coming off the worst of his six starts in St Louis, allowing four runs over as many innings with two walks and strikeouts and is down to just a 20 K%. He’s not fooling anyone with just a 13.6 CStr% and 50.1 Z-O-Swing% that’s resulted in a 51.6% hard contact rate. Fortunate that just two of his seven barrels have left the park, all non-FIP estimators exceed his 4.30 ERA. The good news is that a 112 Stuff+ mark and 63 grade fastball (PB) suggest he still has it in the tank. The lack of another pitch exceeding a 41 PB grade is a concern though.
Opp wRC+: 109 (15.1 K%, 103 Road, 155 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.20
The numbers (Tampa Bay’s wRC+ v LHP and bullpen edge) suggest taking another shot with the Rays as home dogs, but I can’t pull the trigger on this one. I’m not sure Baz is right yet.
Update 4:35 EST: Junior Caminero bats fifth in his debut.
Athletics @ Mets
Again, MLB.com has not told us who is pitching for Oakland tomorrow. If it’s Ross Stripling, I guess I can’t blame them for not wanting to admit it. He has a 9.2 K% over his last nine starts and he’s allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE over that span. Maybe that’s because he throws a 43 grade fastball 30.9% of the time. The Mets love fastballs (0.41 wFA/C is third best).
Opp wRC+: 107 (109 Home)
DEF: -20.5
B30: 3.53
Paul Blackburn has four straight road starts (with a more than two month IL stint in between), but can he call it home when it’s a park he’s never pitched in before (I don’t know that for sure). The Mets traded for him and said, “Hey, you’ve got a great cutter (22.1%, 66 PB grade). Throw that more.”
At 33.7% usage since the trade, Blackburn has struck out 12 of 50 batters with a 56.3 GB%, allowing three runs (two earned) over 12 innings. On the season, all estimators exceed his 3.86 ERA without reaching four and a half, but should he retain these new peripherals, he’s got a chance to drop them all below four. Revenge game, but how could you want revenge on the A’s? Haven’t they already been through enough?
Opp wRC+: 98 (25.4%, 92 Road)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.35
DFS Notes: Not a single weather concern on a nine game slate with the same two protected environments as Monday with Arizona already confirmed closed again. In fact, it’s in the 70s with little wind just about everywhere outside of San Francisco. Three teams reach five implied runs with six more at or above four and a half and that’s half the board. Only four below four runs. There is not a $10K pitcher on the slate (either site), but there’s a clear number one guy in my eyes.
We start with mid to upper 70s at Citi Field in Queens with a light breeze across the field. The Mets (4.84) are fifth from the top with the A’s (3.66) fourth from the bottom. I’m seeing Stripling listed in some places, but have not yet seen him confirmed on the now unreliable MLB.com. Regardless, he’d be one of the worst values on the board. Blackburn, however, is my SP2 and my favorite DK value below $8K. This is a high upside matchup in a pitcher friendly park against an offense that is much worse on the road. That said, I’m not going to completely throw out his immense reverse split (RHBs .373 wOBA, .360 xwOBA with LHBs below .300), which could become even more pronounced with increased cutter usage, and call Brent Rooker (161 wRC+, .264 ISO v RHP, 200 wRC+ L30 days) one of the top batters on the board, but more of a one off for me. Butler (119, .222, 198) is the only other Oakland bat I’d even consider because he’s red hot, still cheap and leading off (most likely). They are also the only projected A’s above a 101 wRC+ on the road this year (both above 120). Blackburn and Alvarez can be run on, but the revamped pen of the Mets have the sixth best estimators over the last 30 days and Diaz hasn’t pitched in nearly a week.
I was surprised to find myself not rostering a single Met in either one of my single entries, but LHBs have just a .291 xwOBA against Stripling. With McNeil (projected lineup high 182 wRC+ L30 days) the only projected Met below a 110 wRC+ against RHP over the last 30 days, this is still a likeable offense. I blame their slumber in Seattle on a road trip from hell ending in the toughest park against the toughest pitching staff. Alonso (114, .198, 145), Martinez (111, .171, 99) and Lindor (121, .171, 142) look best here. McNeil is also the only projected Met below a 98 wRC+ at home. However, Langeliers is one of the best arms behind the plate and the Oakland pen has the fifth best pen estimators L30 days with Miller back, despite trading away at the deadline.
Update 3:30 EST: Welp, it's Joe Boyle, who's estimators averaged around five and a quarter earlier in the year. Great stuff (110 Stuff+). Doesn't know where it's going (92 Pitching+). LHBs had a .369 wOBA and .387 xwOBA, while he held RHBs to .300 or below. Changes the dynamic here. Vientos out, Lindor & the struggling Nimmo (111, .167) now the Mets top plays, along with Winker (131, .168) batting third.
Rangers @ Red Sox
Jose Urena has a 3.2 K-BB% over his last 32 innings with a 49 GB%, but 44.2% hard hit rate. With an 86 Stuff+ (95 Pitching+), he doesn’t have a PitchingBot grade reaching 50 and estimators only as low as a 4.29 dERA on the season.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: 22.5
B30: 4.75
The good news is that Kutter Crawford allowed a single home run in his last start without even allowing a barrel and just four hard hit batted balls. The bad news is that he walked four, struck out just three and was out of the game before the fifth inning after allowing 12 home runs (13 barrels) in his previous three starts. Sure, that sounds like some misfortune, but guess what? He now has a 4.07 ERA, 4.08 SIERA and 4.06 xERA on the season. The fastball (34.7%) still owns a 61 PB grade and the Rangers are a bottom third offense against heaters (-0.37 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 91 (20.9 K%, 89 Road)
DEF: -18
B30: 4.97
Don’t think I can lay money with Kutter Crawford in his current condition and without enough time to figure why, I’m going to side with the Red Sox going over a high total (5.5) with a great matchup in a great park.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with virtually no wind in Boston makes it the top run environment on the slate (114 PRF on average). The Red Sox (5.36) are right behind the Yankees (what else is new) with the Rangers (4.64) not too much further down the board. Absolutely no interest in pitching here, but plenty of interest in offense. Rafaela (92 wRC+, .146 ISO v RHP) is the only Boston bat I’d call a poor value. Devers (182, .352) is at least the top third baseman on the board. Hamilton (96, .151) could be a great value if in the leadoff spot again with Duran serving out his suspension. Abreu (140, .253), Yoshida (122, .130) and even Refsnyder (114, .122) should be strong values too. Hamilton is the only bat mentioned below a 129 wRC+ L30 days and the Rangers have the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days with Yates throwing 25 pitches last night and Robinson 35 after 13 on Saturday. I’m actually more interested in Texas left-handed bats (.310 wOBA, .330 xwOBA against Crawford) against a struggling pitcher here. They just fit better. Seager (156, .263) may once again be the top bat on the board. Smith (116, .153) and Lowe (112, .142) could be great values. I’d even consider Semien (84, .147) a strong second base choice in this environment. Only Smith is below a 110 wRC+ L30 days among those mentioned. In fact, nobody else projected reaches even an 80 wRC+ L30 days. Semien the only one mentioned below a 110 wRC+ on the road. Urena and Heim can be run on and Boston has the second worst pen estimators last 30 days. In fact, it’s a pair of Sox at the bottom.
Update 4:50 EST: No movement on BOS team total (4.5 +110).
Royals @ Twins
Scuse me while I saddle this high horse…
Seth Lugo should start the All-Star game. He’s gonna win a Cy Young. But all those WINS!! No, Seth Lugo didn’t suddenly turn into a Hall of Famer and discover how to do things no pitcher in the history of the game has ever done. He’s the same guy he was five starts ago with estimators around four (3.93 xFIP – 4.05 SIERA) and now he’s allowed 19 runs over his last 33.2 innings with a 9.6 K-BB% (15.6% season), but more importantly, a 56.2 LOB% that’s finally dropped his season rate under 80%. This regression is real, it hurts and it was always going to happen. Why do people refuse to buy into proven concepts like unsustainable strand rates? The insane thing is that his BABIP is only .245 over this stretch, dropping his season rate to .260. He’s feeling the pain of regression, but with a 2.72 ERA still more than a run below all non-FIP estimators, there’s still more to come. Does that mean continuing at this five run per nine path the rest of the way? No, but something closer to four. Perhaps we can concede something even closer to his 3.45 FIP in a power suppressing park with a great defense, but Kansas City, where he’s not pitching tonight, is actually one of the most positive run environments in the league.
Opp wRC+: 113 (21.1 K%, 126 Home)
DEF: 25.5
B30: 3.97
Zebby Matthews makes his major league debut. The 24 year-old has just 19 innings at AAA, which seems to be the trend lately (skipping AAA), but when you have a 27 K-BB% at both levels above A ball and a 33.3 K-BB% without a walk in 22.2 A+ innings before that…
Matthews is a 45 FV grade (Fangraphs) with a scouting report on that site that’s fairly fresh (6/25), suggesting fourth starter upside right now, the biggest flaws being lack of a platoon busting pitch and perhaps living in the middle of the zone too much. Projection systems average a bit below four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 101 (18.4 K%, 88 Road, 126 L7 days)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.89
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a breeze in from near the right field pole, the Twins (4.42) are middle of the board with the Royals (4.06) fifth from the bottom. Your guess is as good as mine with the debuting Matthews. Seems to have some upside and risk. It’s a fairly neutral park, more run than power friendly. The Royals don’t strike out a lot, but have large home/road splits (Witt a mere 124 wRC+ on the road). The two catchers are the only other above average hitters on the road, among those projected. It’s Witt (178 wRC+, .272 ISO, 255 wRC+ L30 days) or nothing for me here. The Minnesota pen is rested with top half of the league estimators L30 days. I would be remiss after my rant about Lugo if I didn’t roster a single batter against him and with LHBs owning a .317 xwOBA against him, that batter is the smoking hot Matt Wallner (191, .357, 209). I don’t hate Lewis (171, .404, 167) here either. The second most expensive pitcher on either site, Lugo actually might be fine tonight. He’s actually about tied for my second best overall arm on a weak pitching slate and you’re not running on him, but the Twins are beasts at home. Middling pen estimators last 30 days for a well-rested Kansas City relief corps.
Update 4:15 EST: Line movement towards Twins. Shocking, I know. Frazier in for Renfroe. For the Twins, Miranda, Margot and Vazquez in for Buxton, Larnach and Jeffers. Buxton is an injury situation, but Lugo does not have a reverse split this year, so I somewhat question the right-handed lean.
Yankees @ White Sox
Speaking of regression…
Nestor Cortes has allowed 24 runs over his last 23.1 innings with a 7.9 K-BB% (17% season) and 11.8% Barrels/BBE (8.7% season with a 44% hard contact rate. There had been a home/road thing going on, but I think that was more about great matchups at home because lately, he’s just been bad period. His 4.42 ERA is above all estimators except a 4.75 dERA, though only the xERA (3.78) drops below four. With 99 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ marks and a 3.91 Bot ERA, sure, Cortes is a league average pitcher on a bit of a rough run, but the peripherals suggest he deserves it. The velocity isn’t down, but he’s already hit twice last year’s inning total.
Opp wRC+: 79 (24.4 K%, 74 Home, 68 L7 days)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 4.13
Three straight quality starts with a total of four runs for Jonathan Cannon, despite a 1.3 K-BB% over that span, dropping him to 9.8% on the season. With an average contact profile, Cannon produces estimators ranging from a 4.29 xERA to a 4.70 SIERA that are more than half a run above his 3.91 ERA, though there’s not any single thing on it’s own that’s responsible for it. Batters from the left side are just above a .330 wOBA and wOBA against him with RHBs 15 to 20 points lower. Interestingly, Cannon’s pitch modeling is not far off of Cortes with a 100 Pitching+ and 4.13 Bot ERA including not a single Pitching Bot grade below 50 on anything he throw smore than 10% of the time.
Opp wRC+: 125 (10.4 K-BB%, 16.1 HR/FB, 119 Road, 135 L7 days)
DEF: -22
B30: 5.19
This is the same exact thing as yesterday. I’m just not going to copy and paste because I think the pitching matchup is actually slightly better and maybe worth a full unit. We’re already playing with house money unless the Yankees come back from down 9 with two outs in the 8th. Gil is better than Cortes.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with surprisingly little wind in Chicago, where the Yankees top the board (5.83) with the White Sox (3.17) second from the bottom. How’d that work out again last night? Oh, right…baseball happened. A struggling Cortes is adequately priced, but still maybe a top five or six arm on this slate. Cannon may be one of the worst values. As opposed to not having a single above average hitter against RHP, the White Sox have some small sample heroes against southpaws in Vaughn (129 wRC+, .188 ISO), Julks (127, .120) and Vargas (114, .186), the latter two costing around $2.5K on DK. Vaughn (115) and Benny (155) are the only projected ChiSox above a 72 wRC+ L30 days. Vaughn (106) is the only one above a 100 wRC+ at home. The Yankees now have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days with a struggling Holmes off 45 pitches on Sunday. Aside from the obvious in Judge (215, .365) and Soto (189, .290), Wells (124, .194) may be my favorite catcher value at a weak position tonight. All three plus Chisholm (who might have been injured last night) exceed a 150 wRC+ L30 days with at least a 110 wRC+ on the road. As mentioned earlier, the Sox have the worst pen estimators in the league over the last month.
Update 5:30 EST: Chisholm out. White Sox play Sheets against a LHP who generally shuts lefties down. Actual 0.82% gain on White Sox. Guess last night scared them off betting the Yankees up tonight.
Dodgers @ Brewers
Gavin Stone has allowed 24 runs over his last 27.1 innings with a 9.2 K-BB% (11.6% season) with his solid contact management only ticking slightly up to league average over this stretch. Stone still has a 78.7 LOB% that’s probably due a bit more regression with his 3.71 ERA still more than one-third of a run below all estimators, rising as high as a 4.43 SIERA. In line with estimators, a 4.20 Bot ERA, 99 Stuff+ and 101 Stuff+ also suggest something along the lines of league average. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .300 and .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Remarkably league averish-ish.
Opp wRC+: 109 (109 Home, 156 L7 days)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.97
Colin Rea has allowed four runs over his last 23 innings with a 26.7 K-BB% to push his season rate up to a 12.4% (Atlanta twice, Washington and the Cubs in case you’re wondering). Along with 9.2% Barrels/BBE, his 3.38 season ERA is well ahead of estimators ranging from a 4.27 FIP to a 4.75 xERA, but we can go back further and see a 16+ K-BB% in six of his last eight starts. Rea has a 2.80 SIERA and .265 xwOBA allowed over the last 30 days. He keeps pitching like this, no regression needed.
Opp wRC+: 114 (110 Road, 116 L7 days)
DEF: 14
B30: 3.79
I get Betts is back and that’s more than a small bump, but why are the Dodgers road favorites in this game? I understand Rea’s season numbers may still be slightly behind Stone, but my weighted estimators have him up a quarter run by recent performance that sees these pitchers going in vastly different directions quickly and it’s not like the Dodgers have some large edge in any other aspect of this game. Brewers +108.
DFS Notes: A 96 PRF with the roof closed, 98 with it open, the biggest boost goes to right-handed power with LHBs already having a 120 home run factor, the Brewers (4.5) and Dodgers (4.5) are both middle of the board. I neither like, nor hate either pitcher in the $7.5K range, but feel Blackburn to be a much better value. As I’m still in shock about saying that about Rea, it’s Ohtani (198 wRC+, .384 ISO v RHP), Betts (162, .210) and Freeman (163, .223) with maybe a side of Lux (95, .127), now hitting cleanup? He tops the projected lineup with a 178 wRC+ L30 days (Kike 177). The Dodgers should find it easy to run on this combo, but the Brewers have top half of the league pen estimators L30 days, just a couple of spots ahead of the Dodgers. I have interest in Chourio (115, .197) and Mitchell (129, .164) from the home side, each exceeding a 125 wRC+ L30 days. Turang is the only projected Brewer below a 105 wRC+ at home. The Dodger pen has been heavily worked with Hudson (43) and Phillips (30) three of four and Kopech (33) two of the last three.
Update 5:20 EST: Roof closed. Only three LH Dodgers. MItchell dropped down the order, as Black (in for Bauers) bats third.
Blue Jays @ Angels
Kevin Gausman his going deep into games with at least 6.2 innings pitched in four of his last five, but he also has just 20 strikeouts to 13 walks over that span (5.7 K-BB%). He has just a 14.6 K-BB% on the season. His 4.42 ERA is above, but within one-third of a run of all of his contact neutral estimators AND his FIP. The bad news is a 5.07 xERA with 11.3% Barrels/BBE. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs up to a .366 xwOBA. There’s some more good news in the pitch modeling (3.75 Bot ERA, 105 Pitching+). The splitter (55 PB grade) and fastball (64) still grade very well. Perhaps he comes back healthy and strong next season.
Opp wRC+: 90 (95 Home, 122 L7 days)
DEF: 18.5
B30: 4.90
Carson Fulmer has a 3.60 ERA ERA as a starter with estimators in the low to mid-fours and a .306 xwOBA allowed. In other words, similar or even better than Gausman in some instances. He’s allowed just four barrels (5.8%) in five starts with a 13.9 K-BB%. His pitch modeling is not as optimistic (4.96 Bot ERA includes bullpen work) with only the fastball (21.5%, 55 PB grade) above average. These converted relievers are hard to gage until they get more than a handful of starts under their belt.
Opp wRC+: 99 (96 Road, 92 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.25
I can’t say the Blue Jays have much of an edge anywhere except defense and the Angels probably make this up on the bullpen edge. I think Gausman’s reputations makes this line (Angels +130), not his performance.
DFS Notes: On to the west coast in the mid-70s with a light wind out to center in Los Angeles, both teams here at 4.5 implied runs too. Gausman maybe a pinch behind Lugo as my second best pitcher, but $200 cheaper and probably a better value on FanDuel. He still has the potential to pop a big one and has done so every so often this year. That said, Schanuel (109 wRC+, .119 ISO v RHP), O’Hoppe (119, .172) and Neto (124, .199) don’t look bad here. A group that may include the top catcher on the board and two others exceeding a 140 wRC+ L30 days. The Blue Jays have the fifth worst pen estimators in the league last 30 days (Angels just three spots ahead). I’m not in on Fulmer. The Blue Jays rarely strike out, despite Vlad (156, .207) and Horwitz (135, .163) the only two projected above a 96 wRC+ against RHP this year.
Update 6:35 EST: No TOR LU yet, but we have our big mover of the day with a 5.54% gain on the Angels.
Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Seven innings of two run ball with six strikeouts and one walk against the Padres, bookended by a pair of outings where Austin Gomber failed to complete four innings. A 7.01 ERA over his last 12 starts, despite an increase in K-BB (12.7%), Gomber has a 4.92 season ERA within half a run of all estimators. An 11.1 K-BB% is barely above the 10.6% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed. The command is good enough that a 79 Stuff+ works up to a 98 Piching+ with a 4.22 Bot ERA, which is to say that pitch modeling is a bit more optimistic than estimators and actual results. With RHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him, Gomber will still likely have trouble with the Diamondbacks, even if they might be missing their best hitter (Marte)
Opp wRC+: 119 (20.2 K%, 117 Home, 160 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.11
Eduardo Rodriguez was down a mph from last season and half a mph from his previous season average low in his first start against the Guardians, striking out just one with two walks and home runs on as many barrels with just a 3.1 SwStr%. Not a great offense to judge his stuff against. The pitch mix showed a few more changeups than usual, but nothing too out of the ordinary. Imagine the excitement in Arizona in March when they thought they were going to have a top four of Gallen, J-Mont, E-Rod and Kelly. Projections average right around four, but it’s hard to tell right now.
Opp wRC+: 82 (27.2 K%, 15.2 HR/FB, 79 Road)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.66
DFS Notes: Closed roof and a perfectly neutral run environment. The Diamondbacks (5.02) are third from the top with the Rockies (3.48) third from the bottom. Gomber is one of the worst values on the board. Gurriel (145 wRC+, .172 ISO), McCarthy (157, .119) and Grichuk (120, .118) have been the best against LHP, among those projected. Marte and Walker are really big omissions, though this is still a formidable lineup against LHP. Perdomo (98, .050) could be a top value if in the leadoff spot again. Herrera is the only bat projected below a 96 wRC+ L30 days. Grichuk (90) the only one below a 97 wRC+ at home. Colorado pen estimators over the last 30 days barely escape the bottom third of the league. I’m content to avoid the entire E-Rod situation, outside maybe Tovar (94, .201) and Doyle (97, .159). Arizona pen estimators are just outside the top third of the league last 30 days.
Pirates @ Padres
Luis Ortiz has struck out just 11 of his last 91 batter (6.8 SwStr%) with nine walks and six home runs on seven barrels (9.3%). Batters from the left side have a .300 wOBA, but .357 xwOBA against him. This is his second straight against the Padres, who barreled him as many times as they struck out (three) in Pittsburgh.
Opp wRC+: 117 (17.8 K%, 116 Home, 180 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.43
Did you realize Michael King was up to a 19.4 K-BB% with just 5.7% Barrels/BBE and a 29.8% hard contact rate? All estimators exceed his 3.34 ERA, but only running as high as a 3.69 dERA. I’m finally not embarrassed enough to admit that I threw a few dollars on him to win the CY pre-season at +10000 (that’s four zeros). All PitchingBot grades are between 53 and 59, King has allowed just seven barrels (3.0%) over his last 16 starts with a 22.7 K-BB%. He still has a shot, right?
Opp wRC+: 84 (24.2 K%)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.16
DFS Notes: Around 70 with a light breeze across the field, the Padres (4.94) are fourth from the top with the Pirates (3.06) at the bottom. King is the most expensive pitcher, but still below $10K and my top pitcher by a mile tonight. Maybe even the best value on the slate. I know he’ll be well represented, but am still incredibly high on him in this great spot without a trustable arm below him. With the Padres also owning the second best pen estimators L30 days, I’m on no Pittsburgh bats. Profar (146 wRC+, .182 ISO v RHP) is the top San Diego bat in a projected lineup that includes only Kim (96) below a 100 wRC+ v RHP and only he, along with Cronenworth and the aching Arraez below a 110 wRC+ L30 days. The Pirates have the seventh worst pen estimators L30 days.
Braves @ Giants
I said it last time, every time I think Charlie Morton is cooked, he goes on a heater. Once I reconsider, he gets smashed. Four home runs for the Brewers. Three or more barrels in three of his last five starts, but none in the other two. Here are his numbers on the whole: a 14.2 K-BB% with 10.1% Barrels/BBE and estimators ranging from a 4.09 xFIP to a 4.76 FIP, all now within half a run of his 4.47 ERA and that’s with eight unearned runs. The fastball is a problem (27.4%, -2 RV/100, 40 PB grade) and one the Giantss can solve (0.03 wFA/C is just outside the top third of the league). Morton recognizes this by throwing his best pitch (59 PB grade curveball) more often (41.2%, 0.1 RV/100), but even that got smashed last time out. His 95 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ scores are slightly superior to his opponent’s.
Opp wRC+: 95 (104 Home, 82 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 3.56
Eleven of Kyle Harrison’s 32 strikeouts over his last seven starts came in one outing (against the Rockies). He’s exceeded four in only one of those other six starts. His 14.1 K-BB% is league average, brought down by allowing 10% Barrels/BBE, but only three of those 14 barrels have left the yard at home. Overall, his 4.08 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 4.21 SIERA to a 4.71 xERA. The park is always going to help him to some degree, though maybe not as much as a LHP, though RHBs have a .323 wOBA, but .352 xwOBA this season. More extreme than the estimators, pitch modeling sees Harrison as a below average pitcher (4.98 Bot ERA, 90 Stuff+, 92 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 106 (24.4 K%, 94 Road)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.59
DFS Notes: Around 70 with a light breeze across the field, the Padres (4.94) are fourth from the top with the Pirates (3.06) at the bottom. King is the most expensive pitcher, but still below $10K and my top pitcher by a mile tonight. Maybe even the best value on the slate. I know he’ll be well represented, but am still incredibly high on him in this great spot without a trustable arm below him. With the Padres also owning the second best pen estimators L30 days, I’m on no Pittsburgh bats. Profar (146 wRC+, .182 ISO v RHP) is the top San Diego bat in a projected lineup that includes only Kim (96) below a 100 wRC+ v RHP and only he, along with Cronenworth and the aching Arraez below a 110 wRC+ L30 days. The Pirates have the seventh worst pen estimators L30 days.
Top DFS Pithers Overall
1 - Michael King
2 - Michael King
3 - Michael King/Seth Lugo/Kevin Gausman
Top DFS Bats Overall
1 - Shohei Ohtani
2 - Corey Seager
3 - Aaron Judge
4 - Juan Soto
Top DFS Bat Values
1 - Geraldo Perdomo (if leadoff)
2 - Nathaniel Lowe
3 - David Hamilton (if leadoff or near top)
4 - Randal Grichuk?
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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