Monday 8/12 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

I'll also post an end of the season snapshot of all the valleys included with the peaks, but running well is fun when it happens. I haven't had a streak like this since an 18-1 post-season run back in 2021 I think. The Diamondbacks below a 2-0 lead to the Phillies late on Friday night, but then a rookie leads off the bottom of the 9th with the game winning home run against an All Star closer, the first of his career, to win a two unit game. Was I unlucky they below the lead late or lucky they won it anyway. These were the types of games I was almost always loosing in extra-innings early in the year. Hopefully, I didn't just jinx myself here. 

Got a late start. Still four more to cover on Monday morning. 

Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.

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Cubs @ Guardians

Shota Imanaga may have been fortunate the wind was blowing in at Wrigley again for his last start against the Twins, but it was not the reason he whiffed 10 batters for the second time in four starts. A 26.5 K-BB% over his last six starts, brings his season rate up to 22%. Despite the 34.6 GB%, he’s allowed a reasonable 8.6% Barrels/BBE, perhaps because he has a hard hit rate overall just under 40%. Estimators ranging from a 3.35 xERA to a 3.92 dERA still fly above his 3.06 ERA, though not by as much as they were previously. Surprisingly, the splitter (31.5%, 0.3 RV/100) only incurs a 44 PitchingBot grade and it’s the only pitch the Guardians are in the top half of the league against (0.12 wFS/C is eight best). No surprise that Imanaga’s 89 Stuff+ works up to a 103 Pitching+.

Opp wRC+: 112 (109 Home)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.23

Ben Lively is coming off a season high four walks, tying a season low two strikeouts against the Diamondbacks. He also struck out just two Padres a few starts before, but low whiff rates against those two teams is not concerning. With just 6.9% Barrels/BBE, but a 12.9 K-BB% and 42.3% hard contact rate, Lively has given Cleveland more than they could expect and probably more than they should going forward with a 3.59 ERA that nearly matches up with a 3.70 xERA that’s more than half a run below all other estimators. Lively also hasn’t recorded a seventh inning out since May and only four all season long. With a fastball he throws 32.8% of the time receiving just a 37 PitchingBot grade, it’s even more surprising how well he’s done. A 69 Stuff+ grade is one of the worst marks in the league and only works up to a 94 Pitching+.

Opp wRC+: 95 (135 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.48

Cardinals @ Reds

Sonny Gray has a 24.6 K-BB% and some of the best pitch grades in the game (only one pitch thrown more than 10% of the time below a 60 PitchingBot grade), resulting in a 3.01 Bot ERA, 109 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+. If there’s a problem, it’s in his contact profile. The 14 home runs he’s allowed on 29 Barrels (9.1%) are his most since Cincinnati in 2021. That’s the reason why his 3.68 xERA is more than two-thirds of a run above all other estimators and now almost perfectly in line with a 3.65 ERA. The Reds are the second worst offense in the league against cutter (-1.16 FC/C), a pitch Gray throws 17.7% of the time (0 RV/100, 60 PB grade). The Reds do have a 14.2 HR/FB at home though and LHBs have been league average (.318 wOBA, .309 xwOBA) against Gray.

Opp wRC+: 91 (24.9 K%, 89 Home)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.23

Andrew Abbott has at least seven strikeouts in four of his last nine starts, yet still has just a 21.2 K% over that span. Just a 10.3 K-BB% on the season, Abbott earns his spot by managing contact (33.8% hard hit rate), but still allows 9.7% Barrels/BBE. Twenty-four of his 37 barrels have left the yard and 10 of 11 at home. Abbott’s best estimator is a 4.09 xERA that’s nearly three-quarters of a run below all other estimators. Marginally below average pitch grades give Abbott a 4.44 Bot ERA and 92 Stuff+ that only works up to a 97 Pitching+.

Opp wRC+: 86 (20.3 K%)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.54

Update 3:25 EST: India out for Benson, Burleson out for Walker. Each team adds a bat from the side the opposing pitcher is worse against. 

Astros @ Rays

Coming into his last start, Framber Valdez had struck out 10 in three of four starts. He only struck out five, but cam a single out from no-hitting the Texas Rangers with a 15.4 SwStr% (16.4% over his last five starts). The ground ball rate has reduced during this stretch (53.9%), but who cares? Trading ground balls for strikeouts is a perfectly fine tradeoff. His K-BB up to 14.2%, all estimators are within one-third of a run of his 3.46 ERA. That 59.2 GB% on the season is how Valdez allows just 5.2% Barrels/BBE despite a 47.3% hard hit rate. More strikeouts means fewer balls in play and fewer hard hit batted balls as well. The curveball (30.3%, 1.3 RV/100, 58 PB grade) is the pitch to attack the Rays with (-0.5 wCU/C is third worst in the league). Valdez is a stuff (112 Stuff+) over command (101+) type.

Opp wRC+: 117 (24.7 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 4.35

Praise a guy for being on a roll and then he lets up nine runs over his next 9.2 innings, striking out just nine of 46 batters. Still sitting on a 20.3 K-BB% over 16 starts now, Taj Bradley has some issues with hard contact as well, but his league average ground ball rate along with it results in 10.8% Barrels/BBE. His 3.07 ERA (.256 BABIP, 79.3 LOB%) is below estimators ranging from a 3.33 dERA to a 3.76 xERA that are very similar to Valdez’s, though they get there in completely different ways.

Opp wRC+: 109 (19.1 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.11

As mentioned, both pitches get to  a similar place in vastly different ways and while I don’t buy into Tampa’s season long wRC+ against LHP w/o Arozarena and Paredees, it’s still a fairly formidable lineup, averaging a 109 wRC+ against southpaws this year, as projected. Giving the Rays a smaller defensive edge, the surprise here is probably how large the bullpen estimator gap is over the last 30 days. It doesn’t feel great going against Framber on this role, but the stats say the Rays shouldn’t be plus money (+102) here. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.

Update 4:20 EST: Nine RHBs for TB. Line movement towards HOU (-1.88%). Not surprised considering perceptions. 

Rangers @ Red Sox

Tyler Mahle allowed just a run over five innings, striking out just two of 21 Astros (7.9 SwStr%). His velocity (92.3 mph) was almost in line with last year’s five starts (92.6), but down a mph from 2022 (93.2). His pitch mix was similar to last season with a 3.75 Bot ERA also in line with last year (3.76). Stuff+ saw a drop off (111 last year, 105 career, 92 first start). Projection systems now average out to four and a quarter runs going forward.

Opp wRC+: 111
DEF: 25.5
B30: 4.69

Brayan Bello has four quality starts over his last seven, but with a four and a half ERA over that span. That’s actually an improvement on his 5.16 season ERA with a .325 BABIP, 70.1 LOB% and 20 HR/FB (18 of 29 barrels). A 4.75 xERA (8.7% Barrels/BBE, 43% hard contact rate) is Bello’s only estimator not more than a half run better than actual results with contact neutral estimators dropping below four (13.9 K-BB%, 50.6 GB%). His bane has been LHBs (.370 wOBA, .348 xwOBA), though PitchingBot grades range from 51 to 58 on his three pitches, including the changeup (51), his best pitch by run value as well (-0.1 RV/100). From that aspect,  the large split doesn’t make much sense and pitch modeling overall really seems to like Bello (3.64 Bot ERA, 103 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+)

Opp wRC+: 90 (20.1 K%, 88 Road, 68 L7 days)
DEF: -12
B30: 4.92

I can be a bit more aggressive on Mahle’s projections and get him down to Bello’s level, but Boston (-120 F5) still has the massively better offense this season.

DFS Notes: An eight game slate includes a pair of protected environments, one already confirmed closed and the other can be deciphered by calling the hotline later in the day. A chance of rain, not significant, in just one spot and I don’t think it’s outside the 70s in more than one spot. A pair of offenses separate themselves at five and a half implied runs with nobody else currently reaching five, but five reaching four and a half with just one more offense above four. Finally, six offenses don’t even reach three and a half runs on a small, but pitching rich slate.

Just above 70 with a 10 mph wind out to right and the chance of a late start, our only game listed on the weather report on this slate. The Red Sox (4.94) and Rangers (4.56) are both top five offenses tonight by team run totals. Nobody in the projected lineup for Boston is below a 92 wRC+ against RHP this year. Mahle has been a reverse splitter in recent years, which should help him here because unless the Red Sox switch it up, they’re only projected to start a pair of RHBs, both below a 100 wRC+ against RHP. Duran, Abreu and Devers each exceed a 135 wRC+ and .250 ISO v RHP this season and a 140 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Duran is also one of the top base runners in the league, but Mahle and Kelly are tough to run on. Both teams have bottom five pen estimators L30 days, though the top of the Texas pen is well rested. In easily the top run environment on the board (on average 114 PRF), I’m siding with some left-handed Texas bats against Bello, splits mentioned above. Corey Seager (156, .266) may be my top bat on the board and Josh Smith (117, .154) are great value for less than $4K (just $3K FD). Lowe (116, .144) and Jung (159, .295) should play here too with RHBs above .320 against Bello too. Lucas Sims (42) has thrown two of the last three days.

Update 4:10 EST: Heim, not Kelly catches. Refsnyder in for Duran. Wonder if this is about punishment and Mahle just happens to have the reverse split tendencies. No movement on BOS F5. 

Royals @ Twins

After three consecutive starts of exactly seven innings, Brady Singer lasted 5.2 innings against the Red Sox (four runs). Another pitcher with significant platoon issues, more than 100 points by either wOBA (LHB .373) or xwOBA (.380), it’s far worse on the road (LHBs .482 wOBA). Eight of the 13 home runs Singer has allowed this year have come against LHBs on the road. His K-BB overall drops six points on the road (11.9%). Batters overall have a .367 xwOBA against him on the road. With 85 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ marks, pitch modeling is not a fan of Singer overall either.

Opp wRC+: 112 (21.1 K%, 126 Home)
DEF: 25.5
B30: 3.90

After three consecutive quality starts with two runs or less and exactly seven strikeouts in each, Pablo Lopez struck out just two Cubs at Wrigley (wind blowing in), allowing four runs in five innings in an affair that had a pregame run total of six. You look at the 21.6 K-BB%, somewhat average contact profile and PitchingBot grades that are above 55 on four of five pitches and wonder where the hell a 4.74 ERA that’s more than a run above non-FIP estimators that don’t rise above three and a half comes from? The easy answer is that 21 of 31 barrels have left the yard with a 68% strand rate. Batters from either side are tightly between a .292 and .306 wOBA and xwOBA against Lopez, who likely deserves far better than his actual results, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he might not have to make some adjustments to get there.

Opp wRC+: 101 (18.4 K%, 88 Road, 117 L7 days)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 3.84

DFS Notes: Mid-70s with hardly any wind, the Twins are THE middle of the board offense tonight (4.44) with the Royals (3.56) beginning the bottom tier, ahead of five other offenses. While Singer doesn’t grade terribly in this situation, I’m certainly looking at cheap left-handed Twins here for reasons mentioned above. Wallner (192 wRC+, .370 ISO v RHP) and Larnach (115, .185) could be great values with Castro (114 wRC+, .133) is viable as well. Every projected Twin has at least a 94 wRC+ against RHP, but considering how Singer stifles RHBs, no, it’s probably not crazy for less than $9K. Wallner has a lineup leading 200 wRC+ L30 days. Singer and Fermin/Perez are tough to run on. Both teams have middle of the league pen estimators L30 days. Erceg has Sunday off after working three of the previous four (62 pitches). I can’t, in good faith, give Pablo Lopez too much of a recommendation on this slate for more than $9K in a low upside matchup, although Witt (176 wRC+, .267 ISO) is the only bat I’d consider and I’ve already mentioned I like Seager better. He has a 236 wRC+ L30 days. Neither Duran, nor Jax pitched Saturday or Sunday.

Yankees @ White Sox

Luis Gil was fixed with three straight single run outings, walking a total of two. He’s only allowed three runs in 10.1 innings since, striking out 14 of 45, but with eight walks. Maybe the risk of walks (12.0% on the season) are just going to be there. At least this year. Gil’s contact inclusive estimators are half a run above his 3.06 ERA with contact neutral ones hovering just on either side of four. Pitch modeling loves the stuff (110 Stuff+), but not the command (101 Pitching+).

Opp wRC+: 72 (24.2 K%, 74 Home)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 4.11

Twenty-four year-old Ky Bush struck out three of 20 Athletics in his major league debut, walking five. Five of 11 batted balls reached a 95 mph EV. A 7.1 K-BB% in just 19 AAA innings and 14.5% in 80 at AA this season, Bush is a 40 Future Value prospect (Fangraphs) with (surprise) poor command and a fastball that could get him trouble, but a potentially plus slider. That sounds like a LOOGY to me. Projections average around five.

Opp wRC+: 105 (9.8 K-BB%, 120 Road)
DEF: -20
B30: 5.09

If Ky Bush is a true five ERA type, then this line is far too high because Gil is somewhere between three and a half and four, probably a bit closer to the latter right now. For sure, the Yankees have every edge in this game and none of them small, and I don’t expect the White Sox to win this game often. Maybe one-third of the time at home, leaves this line with significant value and worth a small shot.

DFS Notes: Low 70s with a light wind in from center, the Yankees top the board at 5.99 implied runs with the White Sox (3.01) second from the bottom. Gil is my number four pitcher tonight on Fanduel, but closer to Peralta and maybe even Singer as top six arms overall on DK. I don’t know that he’s over-priced, but probably adequately priced, especially on FD ($10.8K). I think he may be more popular than he should be on DK ($9K). I’m certainly not interested in any Chicago bats, as none reach even a 90 wRC+ against RHP, among those projected, with Robert (.211) the only one above a .160 ISO and Benny (145) the only one above a 90 wRC+ L30 days overall. What to do against the left-handed Ty Bush with the Yankees occasionally keeping in as many as four LHBs against southpaws? Well, you have the two matchup proof guys in Soto (180, .273) and Judge (223, .385), each exceeding a 200 wRC+ L30 days and the top run total on the slate, but no other projected RHBs reaching a 100 wRC+ against LHP this year. Jazz (132) is the only Yankee besides the big two exceeding a 110 wRC+ on the road. The White Sox have graduated to the worst pen estimators in the league L30 days.

Update 4:45 EST: No Robert. Good for Gil, right? Actual lineup lower strikeout rates than projected though. Just less power risk. 

Dodgers @ Brewers

Clayton Kershaw struck out six of 20 Giants in his first start with a 19.6 SwStr%. He was then roughed up by the Padres without a single strikeout and a drop in velocity. The velocity was back up last time out, striking out five of 19 Phillies (12.3 SwStr%), but was yanked as soon as he got into some trouble in the fifth. He’s been held under 85 pitches in all three starts and runs into another tough matchup here. The schedule hasn’t been kind to him. Conflicting pitch modeling with solid, yet not spectacular 102 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ marks, but a 4.72 Bot ERA with the curveball (14.8%, 53 PB grade) his only above average pitch.

Opp wRC+: 104 (10.7 K-BB%, 109 Home, 156 L7 days) (incl. Sun)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.97

Freddy Peralta’s ERA hit four after allowing as many runs in his last start. With a 20.5 K-BB%, but 9.5% Barrels/BBE, despite a sub-40% hard hit rate, estimators are all below that mark, but only as low as a 3.51 SIERA. We’ve seen 19 of his 30 barrels leave the park, which is a bit unfortunate, but the strand rate and BABIP are fine. With just a 38.3 GB%, he has to curb the barrels too be much more effective. A 104 Stuff+ mark believes he’s above average, but not great, dropping to a 101 Pitching+ with a 4.25 Bot ERA that sees the changeup (17.3%, 1.1 RV/100, 42 PB grade) as the culprit (all other pitches between 53 and 55), despite it owning the top run value in his arsenal and Peralta owning a slight reverse split (batters from either side between .292 and .319 wOBA and xwOBA).

Opp wRC+: 114 (110 Road, 116 L7days)
DEF: 15
B30: 3.79

DFS Notes: A 96 PRF increases to 98 on average should the roof be open with RH power getting a significant boost with the home run factor for LHBs already reaching 120 even with the roof closed, the Dodgers and Brewers are both middle of the board at exactly four runs. I’m laying off both pitchers here. Kershaw’s workload makes it easy, as does the Dodger offense. There are no standout bats for Milwaukee against Kershaw and the Dodger pen has improved to middling over the last 30 days with Phillips (30) working three straight. Against a tough, but volatile pitcher Betts (159 wRC+, .198 ISO v RHP), Ohtani (196, .378) and Freeman (166, .225) remain somewhat matchup proof, though not likely the greatest of values in this spot. The Brewers are a top half pen last 30 days. Peralta is actually $300 cheaper on FD, which is interesting. I have him in line with Gil on DK and only slightly behind on FD, as a top five or six arm, but not someone I’m paying up for.

Update 6:25 EST: Open roof, 76 degrees. Betts back. MIL leaves in three LHBs, two in the first three batters. Kershaw has occasionally shown some minor reverse split tendencies, though not in this year's small sample yet. 

Blue Jays @ Angels

Pitch modeling is a fan of Bowden Francis (101 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+) with pitches thrown more then seven percent of the time graded between 50 and 59 via PitchingBot. The heater (53.8%, 0.4 RV/100, 59 PB grade) should remain his weapon of choice against the Angels (-0.42 wFA/C is bottom quarter of the league). The problem is that more than half his innings have come out of the pen this year and we can’t just expect the stuff to play the same in a starting role. Two encouraging starts in a row against the Orioles does help a bit though. At 11.6% Barrels/BBE with just a 19.6 K%, Francis’s best estimator is a 4.27 SIERA with contact inclusive ones above five, including a 5.44 ERA matching 5.41 FIP. Batters from the right side have a .394 wOBA and .351 xwOBA, though there’s only a three point xwOBA gap to LHBs.

Opp wRC+: 90 (incl. Sun)
DEF: 18
B30: 4.90

Not much was expected from Davis Daniel, but elite control (3.7 BB%) though five starts has resulted in estimators more than a run and a half below his 6.04 ERA (.351 BABIP, 59.2 LOB%). With 9.9% Barrels/BBE, a 4.47 xERA is his worst indicator. However, we also have to note that his only double digit SwStr% was in his first start, while running a mere 13.3 K-BB% since then and his quality of competition is a bit lacking with Detroit, Oakland, Colorado and Texas in addition to the Yankees. PitchingBot grades both the slider (23.1%) and fastball (48.3%) at 61 (3.66 Bot ERA) with an 81 Stuff+ working up to a 102 Pitching+. Let’s see where he stands after another few starts.

Opp wRC+: 99 (20.5 K%)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.25

DFS Notes: Moving to the west coast for the last half of the slate, mid-70s with a light wind out to left-center in a run neutral, but power friendly park where the Angels and Blue Jays are tied at 4.5 implied runs. Bowden is less than $6K on DK and is probably the spot I’d consider going if I couldn’t fit two higher priced pitchers into my DK lineup. Daniel may be one of the worst values on the board in a low upside matchup. Right-handed batters have a .404 wOBA against him, but that drops nearly 100 points (.311) via xwOBA, while LHBs go from .310 to .344. Vlad (155 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Horwitz (138, .162) are the only projected Jays above a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year. Vlad has a 293 wRC+ L30 days. I’d probably throw a few Jays stacks into multi-entry. Daniel/O’Hoppe can be run on and the Angels are a bottom third pen last 30 days with only Joyce, who threw 29 pitches on Sunday, keeping them up that high. Mentioned above, batters from either side within two points of a .350 xwOBA against Francis.  Schanuel (112 wRC+, .121 ISO v RHP), O’Hoppe (120, .173) and Neto (102, .202) grade best. The latter with a 188 wRC+ L30 days, over which the Blue Jays have the third worst pen estimators in the league.

Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Cal Quantrill has been drilled for 34 runs (33 earned) over his last 43.1 innings with just five of those starts at home. So much for the splitter reviving his career and now he has to face the hottest offense in the league since the break. All estimators are within half a run, but also above Quantrill’s 4.56 ERA with just an 8.3 K-BB% with batters from either side between a .325 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The splitter (32.9%) and sinker (40%) make up so much of his arsenal, yet are his only two pitches below a 50 PitchingBot grade. Though they like four-seamers more, the Diamondbacks are top quarter of the league against sinkers too (0.34 wSI/C).

Opp wRC+: 111 (20.2 K%, 117 Home, 169 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.11

Brandon Pfaadt has walked just three of his last 131 batters, increasing his K-BB to 17%. If he only had a pitch to neutralize LHBs (.338 wOBA, .327 xwOBA with RHBs below .250), well, maybe the ERA (3.92) would match the pitch modeling (106 Stuff+ and Pitching+ with a 2.88 Bot ERA and all pitches graded 50 or better via PitchingBot). He’s also still above all estimators, but with only a 3.30 xERA more than half a run lower (6.7% Barrels/BBE).

Opp wRC+: 82 (25.6 K%, 79 Road)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.67

DFS Notes: Roof closed, we have a neutral run environment in Arizona, but the Diamondbacks (5.57) don’t seem to understand that. The Rockies (2.93) are the bottom team on the board. Quantrill costs just $5.3K on DK, but no thank you in this spot. Pfaadt is my third overall arm tonight and a great value. He is my DK SP2 ($8.6K). There’s enough offensive value on the board to make that possible. No interest in Colorado bats with only Doyle (106) reaching a 100 wRC+ against RHP and the Diamondbacks with top third of the league pen estimators L30 days. We certainly want Arizona stacks, which are probably easier than Yankee stacks, among our multi entry exploits. Only Herrera and Gurriel Jr. below a 100 wRC+ against RHP among projected Arizona bats. Marte (124, .213), Pederson (163, .272) and Carroll (106, .181) all exceed a 170 wRC+ L30 days, as do Bell and McCarthy with Suarez at 168. The Rockies have a middling pen the last 30 days, which is a pleasant surprise, but they were worked this weekend with Vodnik (34) going Friday and Sunday.

Update 6:30 EST: No COL LU yet, but it appears Blalock will start for the Rockies. It had been known that Quantrill wasn't starting for a couple of days, but MLB.com was apparently too lazy to be on top of that. They've been far behind and/or oblivious on a number of pitcher listings in recent weeks. Bradley Blalock is a marginal AA pitcher (league average) with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). I would play any Diamondbacks you were going to play against Quantrill with that lack of information. 

Pirates @ Padres

A 7.9 K-BB% with a 11.6% Barrels/BBE is not going to cut it and that’s exactly what Marco Gonzales (not yet confirmed) has done in seven starts for the Pirates. All estimators exceed his 4.54 ERA with a 74 Stuff+ and 4.73 Bot ERA. Batters from either side exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him with the 39 LHBs he’s faced above .400.

Opp wRC+: 102 (17.4 K%, 117 Home, 140 L7 days)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.37

One rehab start, 14 batters faced with two strikeouts and a hit by pitch for Joe Musgrove. He hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since May, while season estimators average closer to five than four with batters from either side exceeding a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The San Diego bullpen has been heavily worked over the last week, but not too bad on Sunday and we’re likely to see a lot of it here.

Opp wRC+: 84 (24.3 K%)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.14

DFS Notes: Around 70 with a light wind blowing towards the right field pole, the Padres (4.67) are fourth from the top in a negative run environment with the Pirates (3.33) fifth from the bottom. I can’t recommend Musgrove here. I have no idea what we’re going to see. I have trouble recommending Pirates bats with the possible exceptions of Reynolds (140 wRC+, .206 ISO v RHP, 161 wRC+ L30 days) and Bart (108, .222, 165) at a tough position behind the plate tonight. The Padres have the top pen estimators in the league L30 days. Assuming Gonzales, I’m heavy on Padres tonight with Solano (157, .185, 208) maybe my favorite value if in the two hole, as he has been against LHP recently. Profar (170, .208, 151) is a top overall bat and Higashioka (111, .302, 127) a top catcher. Machado (117, .202, 153) and Bogaerts (84, .106, 157) have been hot too. The Pirates have bottom third of the league estimators L30 days with Bednar throwing 38 pitches L30 days.

Update 5:45 EST: The first of a pair of pitching changes tonight. Jake Woodford starts for the Pirates. I'm not sure it makes a world of difference in the expected result, but it does change the dynamic. With LHBs above a .390 wOBA and xwOBA in his small sample this year, that gives LH Padres all the value with Kim the only one below a 100 wRC+ v RHP. No Machado and Solano bats fifth. 

Braves @ Giants

Chris Sale punched out at least nine for the 10^th time in his last 16 starts last time out and has a 28.5 K-BB% over that span (26.7% on the season). His 2.75 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. He’s allowed just 5.6% Barrels/BBE with a 29.2% hard contact rate. Mere 101 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+ marks are stunning with results. Batters from either side are below a .265 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Opp wRC+: 119 (106 Home)
DEF: -13
B30: 3.55

Blake Snell has struck out 34 of his last 74 batters (20.6 SwStr%) and has allowed just 12 hits with a single barrel and 18.4% hard contact rate over his last 39 innings!! On the season, his strikeout rate and contact profile looks almost exactly like Sale’s, just with a higher walk rate (9.8%). Batters from either side are below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA. Yet, Snell has a 118 Stuff+ (104 Pitching+) with PitchingBot grades of either 64 or 67 on all three of his pitches.

Opp wRC+: 106 (93 Road)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.69

I’ll give you that Sale has been a better pitcher for a longer run this season than Snell, though I don’t think anybody in the league has pitched as well over the last month. The Giants are still the superior offense and defense with similar pen estimators L30 days. How the hell are they even money at home on FanDuel?

DFS Notes: With temps below 60 in a pitcher friendly environment, no shock that these are the top two pitchers on the board. Ramos (260 wRC+, .418 ISO v LHP) and Fitzgerald (171, .282) are the only bats I’d consider against Sale (or either pitcher), though probably not at current prices. Snell is my favorite overall pitcher and value. Sale is perfectly fine as well, but the most expensive pitcher on the board. Both pens hover right around the edge of the top third of the league last 30 days.

Update 6:15 EST: 3.49% gain on SFG. 

Top DFS Pitchers

1 - Blake Snell

2 - Chris Sale

3 - Brandon Pfaadt

Top DFS Hitters 

1 - Corey Seager

2 - Jurickson Profar (Pitching change - still a solid choice though)

3 - Aaron Judge

4 - Shohei Ohtani

Top DFS Hitter Values

1 - Donovan Solano (Pitching change)

2 - Matt Wallner

3 - Josh Smith

4 - Joc Pederson

Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)