Five away from being done with several TBDs still on MLB.com. Hopefully, Roster Resource got those right and some of the work hasn't been for nothing. The bad news is that there won't be any daily fantasy notes on Friday. I have a busy afternoon, some of it outside the house. I hope to be able to finish up on pitcher notes with enough info to allow players to draw their own conclusions (which is what readers should be doing anyway). The good news is the last couple of weeks have been a nice ride if you've been following along on Action Network. Let's finish out the year in the green.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Angels @ Nationals
Ground balls (58.7%) with a lot of hard contact (45.2%) and just a 10.2 K-BB%. Right-handed batters (.351 wOBA, .342 xwOBA) hit Jose Soriano better than LHBs, though he just shut down a good predominantly right-handed lineup last time out. Estimators from a 3.71 dERA to a 4.33 xERA are above his 3.47 ERA (seven undearned runs).
Opp wRC+: 96 (20.8 K%, 127 L7 days)
DEF: -13
B30: 4.09
Mitch Parker…
First eight starts: 16.9 K-BB%, 8.4% Barrels/BBE, 46.9 GB%.
Next eight starts: 12.8 K-BB%, 8.8% Barrels/BBE, 34.9 GB%
Last four starts: 4.4 K-BB%, 6.7% Barrels/BBE, 29.5 GB%
All non-FIP estimators above his 4.06 ERA now, rising as high as a 4.65 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 93 (20.7%, 86 Road)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.28
Orioles @ Rays
Two starts with Baltimore, Zach Eflin has allowed five runs over 12.1 innings, striking out 10 of 53 batters with a single walk. Mostly what he was doing before the trade (3.39 xERA – 3.96 SIERA), but he did throw 16.3% changeups last time out, more than double any other game percentage. Maybe that will be a thing in Baltimore. Eflin throws a lot of pitches, but the only one his former teammates have had success against as a group this year is the changeup.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24.2 K%)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.84
Added together Zachs Eflin and Littell have a combined 7.2 BB% that’s better than league average. That’s their sum, not their average. Eflin has a 16.2 K-BB%, Littell has a 16.7 K-BB%. Littell has higher estimators (3.99 SIERA – 4.37 dERA) because he’s allowed 9.4% Barrels/BBE with a much lower ground ball rate (34%).
Opp wRC+: 118 (20.9 K%, 116 Road)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.11
Rangers @ Yankees
Cody Bradford has struck out seven of 28 batters (14.3 SwStr%) with just two walks since coming off the IL, but has also allowed eight runs on three barrels (15.8%) and home runs. The entire season is still a very small sample for him with all estimators within a half run of his 3.96 ERA. Pitch modeling is conflicted. Bradford has just 94 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ marks, but PitchingBot grades all his pitches (thrown more than 5%) above 50 with a 3.64 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 105 (9.2 K-BB%, 119 Home, 136 L7 days)
DEF: 18.5
B30: 4.52
Carlos Rodon’s velocity has been more than half a mph above his season average (95.5 mph) in four of his last five starts. He also has a 17.8 SwStr% over that stretch and has struck out 32 of his last 90 batters. Could superstar Rodon be back? I think for that to entirely take effect, he’d have to curb some barrels (10.4%), one stat that has not improved recently. Back on the positive side, his 62 grade fastball (49.7%, 0.5 RV/100) should dominate the Rangers (-0.54 wFA/C is fourth worst in the league).
Opp wRC+: 97 (87 Road, 84 L7 days)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 3.75
Athletics @ Blue Jays
After struggling with the home run ball with a pair of the toughest offenses in the league (Orioles, Phillies), Mitch Spence has followed up by allowing just five runs over his last 17 innings and has been somewhat competent as a starter overall (11.8 K-BB%, 9.3% Barrels/BBE) with a 4.44 ERA/4.42 FIP/4.34 xFIP combo that nearly matches. That’s fine for a fifth starter. A 3.65 Bot ERA, 100 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ marks are more optimistic, led by solid break balls (67 grade slider, 57 grade curveball).
Opp wRC+: 99 (20.4 K%, 9.6 HR/FB)
DEF: -18
B30: 3.41
Two starts back, Jose Berrios threw seven innings of one run ball without a walk and five strikeouts against the Rangers. I emphasize that because he’s still allowed 24 runs (23 earned) over his last 31.2 innings with a 7.3 K-BB%, 12.5% Barrels/BBE and 50% hard hit rate. All estimators are more than one-third of a run above his 4.11 ERA (.258 BABIP, 80.4 LOB%) and it’s surprisingly been RHBs that have torched Berrios this year (.335 wOBA, .360 xwOBA), not necessarily a great thing when facing Rooker and friends.
Opp wRC+: 98 (25.4 K%, 12.3 HR/FB)
DEF: 16.5
B30: 5.25
There are just some games you can eyeball and without even starting the work, know that the line is going to be off due to perception. Although, I’ll admit, I thought the A’s would be larger dogs than +108. Berrios is the inferior pitcher here and doing some of his worst work of the season currently. These offenses are basically the same quality, though they get there in much different ways. The gap on defense can be made up in bullpens. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Astros @ Red Sox
We don’t have a confirmed pitcher for either side of this game, but Roster Resource Is listing Ronel Blanco for the Astros. A 21.1 K-BB% over his last five starts (15.7 SwStr%) has his season rate up to 14.7% with a 13.5 SwStr%. Missing bats is not the problem. If you look at the 2.98 ERA, there are no problems. However nearly double digit walk (9.7%) and barrel (9.9%) rates project just a single estimators (3.93 xERA) below four. Pitch modeling is even less enthusiastic (95 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+). Blanco has a 4.55 Bot ERA led by a 44 grade fastball and 45 grade slider that make up exactly 70% of his pitches thrown this season.
Opp wRC+: 112 (103 Home, 148 L7 days)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.98
Tanner Houck (also listed by RR) is on his way to torpedoing a great season, allowing 25 runs (21 earned) over his last 30.2 innings with a 3.5 K-BB% and 46.6% hard contact rate. The velocity has been stable, but Houck has already blown past his career high for innings pitched and you start to wonder. It’s actually RHBs doing most of the damage with a .423 wOBA over this span (LHBs .323). It can still be salvaged. His 3.09 ERA nearly matches a 3.07 FIP with additional estimators quite a bit higher, but still none reaching four. Houck’s 109 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+ and 3.36 Bot ERA are all still quite strong.
Opp wRC+: 107 (19.2 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.79
Padres @ Marlins
In his first start for the Padres, Martin Perez struck out seven of 21 batters with an 18.8 SwStr%, just as expected. It was the Rockies, but still. I wouldn’t have bet Perez had that in him against a decent high school team. He had walked 10 of his previous 71 with 11 strikeouts (5.7 SwStr%). His 4.96 ERA is within half a run of all estimators It’s hard to find much he’s done at an average or better rate, while his 72 Stuff+ only works up to a 95 Pitching+ and none of the three pitches he throws more than 12% of the time exceed a 46 PitchingBot grade. This is another fine spot for him to shine though.
Opp wRC+: 75 (8.3 HR/FB, 87 Home)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.12 (still adjusting for lost relievers)
There’s no question who has the better stuff here. Edward Cabrera 31 point higher Stuff+ grade. It’s simply a matter of him not knowing where his pitches are going. Four times this year has Cabrera walked two or fewer with seven or more strikeouts. The good news for the Marlins is that he’s done so in each of his last two starts. Caution in combination with wildness has held Cabrera below six innings in every start since his first. The 13.0 BB% and 11.7% Barrels/BBE are major problems, but with a 29.8 K%, contact neutral estimators are below four.
Opp wRC+: 118 (17.9 K%, 108 Road, 142 L7 days)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.17
Guardians @ Twins
MLB.com has Alex Cobb making his season debut in the second game of this double-header. He is the only pitcher currently confirmed for either team. His average projection is about a quarter run below four. Most of his rehabbing was done in A ball. In a pair of AAA starts, he struck out nine of 35 batters with three walks. He did not exceed 18 batters in any start. Cobb has a 16.0 K-BB% over the last three seasons with 58.1% of his contact on the ground.
Opp wRC+: 113 (127 Home, 130 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.76
Bailey Ober is likely to pitch one of these games (RR again) and I suspect the Twins would be a fairly decent favorite in that game because he has been breathing fire as of late. Four runs over his last 22 innings with a 21.8 K-BB%. He has a 25.6 K-BB% over his last eight starts and is up to 20.7% on the season. He’s gone at least six innings in all those starts, at least seven in four. Estimators are all within a quarter run of his 3.69 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 97 (19 K%, 96 Road)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 3.84
Cardinals @ Royals
The most interesting aspect of Miles Mikolas’s profile is in his PitchingBot grades. He throws five pitches more than five percent of the time, grading from 49 to 58, resulting in a 3.71 Bot ERA. His command allows an 87 Stuff+ mark to grow to a 102 Pitching+. All of his estimators are at least two-thirds of a run below his 5.12 ERA (65.3 LOB%), but only running as low as a 4.23 xFIP. Batters from either side are between a .320 and .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 100 (18.5 K%, 107 Home, 112 L7 days)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 4.04
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Michael Lorenzen’s 3.69 ERA is not supported by a single estimator. In fact, his 4.61 xERA is the only estimator not more than a run and a quarter higher. A 6.8 K-BB% will do that. In his case, RHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs below .300. Also in contrast to Mikolas, Lorenzen’s 94 Stuff+ remains a 95 Pitching+, while his slider (10.5%) or sweeper (4.1%) (don’t know which PB is grading here) is the only one (or two) of his six (or seven) pitches exceeding a 43 PitchingBot grade, resulting in a 5.10 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 104 (92 Road)
DEF: 26.5
B30: 3.76
I’m conflicted. Lorenzen is the more fraudulent pitcher here, but the Royals have been very good at home. I think I’m going to split a unit between KC’s team total (4.5 -104) and o4.5 (-130) F5. Did you know Kansas City has a 110 Park Run Factor via Statcast (3-year rolling)?
Cubs @ White Sox
Seven quality starts with two runs or less in Jameson Taillon’s last 10 starts. Three of the last five were seven innings. The 14.1 K-BB% is barely above average, the same for his contact profile (7.6% Barrels/BBE, 36.3% hard hit rate). All estimators are more than half a run above his 3.25 ERA (seven unearned runs), but only running as high as a 4.25 SIERA. That’s a solid pitcher and a questionable contract that might be working out. Ironically, the fastball and slider grade in the 40s (PB), with everything else 57 or higher (3.60 Bot ERA) with an 86 Stuff+ working up to a 103 Pitching+. Truly a command over stuff pitcher, who has learned his craft.
Opp wRC+: 71 (24.2 K%, 73 Home, 54 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.22
Garrett Crochet hasn’t gone beyond four innings, 18 batters or 77 pitches in any of his last four starts. While there will be a new regime on the field, it’s still the same front office, so who knows if plans will change. Velocity has increased last two times out with smaller workloads, but he’s only struck out five of 34 batters with as many walks and one of those outings was against the Mariners. Ironically, the cutter is the only the Cubs are above average against and they smash it (0.80 wFC/C is fifth best).
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -22
B30: 5.14
Reds @ Brewers
Carson Spiers 4.23 ERA/4.27 FIP/4.02 xFIP in a starting role (seven). An extremely competent 17.6 K-BB% and near league average contact profile and five of those seven starts at home, in a tough park. He doesn’t give up free passes (4.4%). The sinker and cutter (both utilized just under 20% of the time) exceed 60 PitchingBot grades over this stretch with a 3.89 Bot ERA that’s second best among Reds starters since the middle of June (more than 30 innings) too. As mentioned, command over stuff, Spiers’ 86 Stuff+ works up to a 102 Pitching+ as a starter.
Opp wRC+: 111 (112 Home, 166 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.62
Five starts for the Blue Jays and nothing has changed. Six of eight barrels (10.1%) have left the yard with a 12.3 K-BB%. The ERA and estimators have increased. All are below his 5.14 ERA, but only running as low as a 4.19 SIERA on the season. A 90.4 Z-Contact% is not helping. The sweeper (17.3%, -0.1 RV/100, 67 PB grade) and curveball (16.5%, -1 RV/100, 59 PB grade) are his only PitchingBot grades above 45, despite their marginal run values. Why not throw them more?
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.8 K%)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.81
Braves @ Rockies
Who are these guys? Grant Holmes has pitched very effectively as a reliever and struck out 12 of 40 over 9.2 innings in a starting role, pitching better against the Brewers than the Marlins. His full season numbers (20.9 K-BB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE, 36% hard hit rate) need to be taken with a grain of salt, but you can certainly see why the Braves want to give him a shot. Three pitches more than 20%, PitchingBot grades between 49 and 57. A 96 Stuff+ works up to a 101 Pitching+. Would expect some regression in a starting role.
Opp wRC+: 81 (25.5 K%, 82 Home, 67 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.69
Tanner Gordon has a 14.3 K-BB% through four starts. Four of his six barrels and his only start above a 50% hard hit rate came against the Mets. This will only be his second home start though. A 15.1 K-BB% in 38.2 AAA innings after starting the season on the IL. A four pitch mix, the slider mentioned as his best in this year’s Fangraphs scouting report is actually his worst by PB grade (40) and RV (-4.7 RV/100). RHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA so far.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.9 K%, 90 Road)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 4.01
Phillies @ Diamondbacks
Zack Wheeler bounced back from allowing at least six runs for the third time in his last 14 starts with eight two hit innings of shutout ball, striking out nine of 27 Mariners with a single walk. In his last 18 starts, 21 of his 35 runs have come in those three starts. A 19.1 K-BB% with a 32.7% hard contact rate, but 8.1% Barrels/BBE, project estimators ranging from a 2.98 xERA to a 3.65 dERA and with a .237 BABIP, the ERA is a bit lower (2.77). The three pitches Wheeler throws most often all have 64 or higher PitchingBot grades. However, the only pitch he throws more than 20% of the time is the fastball (41.2%, 1.1 RV/100, 67 PB grade). The Diamondbacks are the best fastball hitting team in the league (0.79 wFA/C) and it’s not particularly close.
Opp wRC+: 109 (19.8 K%, 113 Home, 142 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.85
Despite a pair of four run outings in Kansas City and Pittsburgh over his last three, Ryne Nelson has allowed 13 runs over his last 37.1 innings with a 19.3 K-BB%. He’s elevated his fastball usage to 64.6% over this span (54.4% season) and for good reason. It’s a great pitch and might be his only even good one (0.3 RV/100, 59 PB grade). With it, Nelson’s 103 Pitching+ is only four points below Wheeler. Over the last month, Nelson’s 3.54 ERA matches his 3.57 SIERA with a .245 xwOBA allowed.
Opp wRC+: 103 (103 Road, 117 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.60
I’m not going to try and tell you that Ryne Nelson is a better pitcher than Zack Wheeler, but I will tell you that the difference gap may not be as wide as most probably think it is and that has nothing to do with Wheeler declining. I will tell you that Airzona might have the better offense and that they certainly have the better defense and far better pen estimators over the last 30 days. Not only do I like the D’Backs (+140) here. I’m not even sure the right team is favored.
Pirates @ Dodgers
No more than two runs in any of Mitch Keller’s last five starts. Three of those starts went at least seven innings. The other two went seven innings combined. His 3.20 ERA flies well below estimators ranging from a 3.75 FIP to a 4.14 dERA. He’s managed contact well (6.4% Barrels/BBE) with a 14.7 K-BB%, but a 78.4 LOB% that’s probably a bit high. Batters from either side between a .296 and .314 wOBA and xwOBA. Keller has a 100 Stuff+ and Pitching+ and a six pitch mix all grading between 48 and 58 PitchingBot grades. Everything except the ERA screams solid, average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 114 (120 Home) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -15
B30: 4.39
Jack Flaherty struck out seven of 25 Athletics without allowing a run over six innings in his first start for the Dodgers. A monstrous 27.3 K-BB%, but back concerns. Keep an eye on his velocity. We now know the Yankees backed out of a trade. When healthy he’s been magnificent this year. Estimators all within a quarter run of his 2.80 ERA and batters from either side below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 84 (24.1 K%, 87 Road)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 4.13
Mets @ Mariners
Jose Quintana’s 3.95 ERA owes a lot of thanks to a .260 BABIP and 79.2 LOB% without an estimator below four and a half. It’s been argued that he pitches around danger to get to his 9.9 K-BB%, but that’s a pretty dangerous way to live and those walks should come back to bite him more often, considering the low strikeout rate and fairly average contact profile. He doesn’t have a single pitch reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade, resulting in a 5.33 Bot ERA, while an 83 Stuff+ only works up to a 93 Pitching+.Batters from either side exceed a .315 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 92 (26.1 K%, 89 Home & L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.36
Bryce Miller at home: 22.8 K-BB%, .241 wOBA, 2.48 FIP, 3.32 xFIP.
The park helps keep some of those barrels in the park, but it doesn’t make the 14 point difference in his home and road K-BB%. Left-handed batters have a .299 wOBA against him, but just .256 at home. Only four of his 16 home runs have been surrendered at home. Overall, all estimators exceed Miller’s 3.62 ERA, but only a 4.19 xERA (10.6% Barrels/BBE) by more than half a run. Pitch modeling loves him (111 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+) with PitchingBot grades exceeding 60 on the fastball (43.6%) and splitter (17.1%). Too bad we can’t get home/road splits on those.
Opp wRC+: 109 (115 Road)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.85
Tigers @ Giants
It’s 5 PM EST. MLB is still TBD. Roster Resource and Rotogrinders list Brant Hurter as the bulk guy. He struck out three of 11 Royals in his major league debut without allowing a run over three innings or walking anyone. A 14.6 K-BB% at AAA, Hurter has a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). A January scouting report suggested that his development of a changeup could evolve him from a specialist to a bulk role type. Projections average a bit above four, which would make him a near league average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 121 (109 Home, 128 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.38
Robbie Ray walked two batters and hit one in his first inning of work before going on to dominate the Dodgers for five innings, striking out eight of 19. He was then shelled for three home runs, not lasting five innings against the A’s. Last time out, he struck out nine of 19 Reds. That’s the Robbie Ray experience in a nutshell. He’s back. A 25.4 K-BB% and 13.3% Barrels/BBE through three starts. He’s thrown as many as 94 pitches, but hasn’t exceeded five innings or 21 batters faced yet.
Opp wRC+: 87 (86 Road)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.72
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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