I feel like I do my best work with 12 or fewer games after an off day. Anything more just feels like a rush. All pitchers for each game below where they're listed on MLB.com (No DET or ARI currently with Allard just posted as I write this). Will finish up the last few confirmations. We're also very slow in getting F5 lines on Wednesday night and had to make decisions on whether to wait and perhaps lose the line or play the full game with some hesitancy. Here's hoping I'm right and the Angels dip below +200 on Thursday.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Giants @ Nationals
Kyle Harrison has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in two of his last three road starts (17 BF each) in Cleveland and Cincinnati. He has three solid starts in between, but two of them were against Colorado. A 14.0 K-BB%, but troubling contact profile (10.5% Barrels/BBE, 45.6% hard hit rate) project estimators all above his 4.09 ERA, rising as high as a 4.86 xERA. PitchingBot grades ranging only from 44 to 50, along with 90 Stuff+ and 92 Pitching+ grades confirm that we’re probably looking at a fourth starter here. One who has benefited from a home park where only three of his 14 barrels have gone for home runs. It’s gone a bit the other way with 11 of 17 road barrels leaving the yard. There’s a 50 point Home/Road wOBA difference and 1.2 run ERA difference. The K-BB% also drops 10 points to single digits on the road this year with his xFIP nearly a run and a half higher. Not a large enough sample to make any strong conclusions about yet, but something to be aware of.
Opp wRC+: 87 (20.1 K%, 129 L7 days)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.59
DJ Herz followed up his first double digit strikeout effort with just six over his next two starts. He followed up his second with just eight over the next two, but now has a 30.8 K-BB% over his last two starts and is up to 22.9% on the season. Just 10 starts in, I still don’t believe he’s that good. Herz has allowed 10.3% Barrels/BBE, but he probably has more upside than a lot of people originally projected. It’s been a bit of misfortune that nine of his 13 barrels have left the park (4.12 FIP nearly matches 4.27 ERA), but he doesn’t have another estimator reaching three and a half. Pitch modeling might be a more efficient indicator than estimators at this point and they still see Herz as a below average pitcher (93 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+) with PitchingBot grades between 48-51, leading to a 4.60 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 120
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.23
Brewers @ Braves
Frankie Montas was up nearly two mph in his debut for the Brewers, while the results were mixed. He struck out five of 24 Nationals without a walk, but he did get BABIP’d (.444) with three runners scoring on a 42.1% hard contact rate. He also had just a 4.5 SwStr%. With all estimators above four and a half (9.7 K-BB%, 8.5% Barrels/BBE), it’s been a tough go for Montas, who’s splitter (21.2%, 0.3 RV, 51 PB grade) is the only pitch to reach a 50 PitchingBot grade, but none fall below 47 either and both his 99 Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks are league average. Perhaps there’s some hope. The majority of his problems have come in the form of left-handed batters (.379 wOBA, .377 xwOBA with RHBs below .300), a resource the Braves are sorely lacking.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.7 K%)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.09
Every time I think Charlie Morton is cooked, he goes on a heater. Once I reconsider, he gets smashed. Here are his numbers on the whole: a 14.3 K-BB% with 9.2% Barrels/BBE and estimators ranging from a 4.05 xFIP to a 4.35 FIP just a bit above his 3.94 ERA (eight unearned runs). The fastball is a problem (27.8%, -1.7 RV/100, 40 PB grade) and one the Brewers can solve (0.08 wFA/C is top third of the league). Morton recognizes this by throwing his best pitch (58 PB grade curveball) more often (41.2%, 0.7 RV/100). His 95 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ scores are slightly inferior to his opponent’s.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: -9.5
B30: 3.42
I expressed my surprise in noting the Milwaukee offense being better than the Atlanta one in Monday’s post, as part of the reason I was siding with the road team. I’ll do so again here (massive defensive edge and potentially parallel pitching or even an edge if Montas sustains his velocity increase). I still show strong value on the full game line, but would rather wait for an F5 to see if it’s worth avoiding that bullpen. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Barely a second for you, but it’s been about four hours since I’ve written the sentences above and we finally have an F5 line. Not as much value as the full game line (MIL +130).
Update 12:05 EST: It's 90 degrees with a near double digit wind out to left-center. Hoskins out. Soler, Murphy and Rosario out. Just two LHBs against Montas and a 4.84% gain on MIL ML.
Padres @ Pirates
On the surface, Randy Vasquez has a 4.62 ERA with a 8.8 K% and it’s within a quarter run of his SIERA, xFIP and FIP, but the dERA and xERA exceed five (the latter by a lot) with 9.7% Barrels/BBE. LHBs exceed a .430 wOBA and xwOBA against him. However, every single pitch Vasquez throws (six of them more than 10% of the time) exceeds a 50 PitchingBot grade. That includes curveballs, cutters and changeups, which should be platoon breakers. He has a 3.96 Bot ERA and also a 106 Stuff+ mark that works down to a 100 Pitching+. As I said prior to his last outing (five innings of one run ball against the Rockies), there’s a disconnect somewhere…but maybe he’s beginning to find it?
Opp wRC+: 84 (24.1 K%, 86 Home)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.10
Luis Ortiz’s first three starts (plus two innings in relief): 27.4 K-BB% (maybe they have something)
Luis Ortiz’s last three starts: 0.0 K-BB% (what they have is a problem)
While that first group includes the White Sox and Reds (but also the Mets), the second one includes just the Diamondbacks and Phillies, so maybe the answer is somewhere in between. If were exactly in between, he’d still be an average pitcher. Like his opponent, Ortiz has solid 104 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ marks. In a starting role, those numbers are 102 and 103. Over his last three starts, 101 and 100. Who knows?
Opp wRC+: 117 (18 K%, 107 Road, 131 L7 days)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.99
The Padres are only -102? You could argue that Ortiz has been the better pitcher, I prefer to suggest that both are still extremely volatile and we don’t know. The Padres surely have a massive offensive edge and a small defensive one. In this case, I don’t have to wait for an F5 line because the Padres have a large bullpen advantage too.
Update 12:15 EST: McCutchen sits. A 2.33 gain on SD ML.
Mets @ Rockies
David Peterson has been a bit of a luck sack this year. With an 81.1% strand rate, he’s generated a 3.47 ERA more than a run below most of his estimators. His 55 GB% is is in line with last year, but his 7.7 K-BB% is about half his career rate, along with the a 43.3% hard contact issue similar to last year. None of this is good (well, the ground ball rate is) and batters form either side exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Pitch modeling is also well below average (4.91 Bot ERA, 94 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+), but has never really liked Peterson’s arsenal. The Mets defense has improved, but that’s not enough to suggest that Peterson can maintain this charade much longer.
Opp wRC+: 79 (27.4 K%, 84 Home, 70 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.62
Austin Gomber has a 19.6 K-BB% over his last four starts, but six home runs on nine barrels (13.6%) with a 48.3% hard contact rate over that span. His 11.5 K-BB% on the season is still below average, now with 10.4% Barrels/BBE. His 4.66 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators, while RHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. An 80 Stuff+ does work up to a nearly average 98 Pitching+ though.
Opp wRC+: 119 (114 Road)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.26
Reds @ Marlins
I’m ready to call this a breakout. Initially, Hunter Greene seemed to solve his hard contact and home run problems, while reducing his K-BB. Over his last eight starts though, Greene has posted a 25.4 K-BB% to drive his season rate up to 18.7%, while allowing just four barrels and a 30.8% hard contact rate. A 2.92 xERA is now the best of Greene’s estimators, nearly matching his 2.83 ERA with additional estimators more than half a run higher (as high as a 4.12 xFIP, due to his 35.4 GB%). There’s no way this man is a true four run talent or skill level right now. His 124 Stuff+ is among the league leaders (104 Pitching+) The slider (48 PB grade) still needs some work, but here he takes a 58 grade fastball (55.4%, 1.3 RV/100) against the third worst fastball offensive in the league (-0.59 wFA/C). Batters from either side run no higher than a .285 wOBA or xwOBA against him this year.
Opp wRC+: 87 (87 Home & L7 days too)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.71
A 4.9 K-BB%, 8.4% Barrels/BBE and 44.6% hard contact rate over his first 27.1 innings tells us that Kyle Tyler needs more first name/last name separation. The Stuff is decent (101 Stuff+), but the command is not (95 Pitching+, 5.44 Bot ERA). Left-handed batters exceed a 400 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 93 (25 K%)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.07
Angels @ Yankees
Last time out, I suggested that Tyler Anderson might struggle against one of the better offenses against changeups in the league. He struck out three, allowing as many runs over five innings. You might think this is as dangerous a matchup, but the Yankees struggle against changeups (-0.38 wCH/C is seventh worst), while we know it carries Andreson’s game (37.1%, 1.9 RV/100, 61 PB grade). It’s his only pitch reaching even a 50 PitchingBot grade and is enough for him to reach a 100 Pitching+ and 4.16 Bot ERA with just a 9.1 K-BB%. He thrives off weak contact on that changeup (32.3% hard hit rate). Even then, a 4.19 xERA is Anderson’s only estimator less than a run and a third above his 3.04 ERA. No pitch can sustain his .240 BABIP and 82.5 LOB%. Anderson had also done his damage against six straight below average offenses before facing the Mets last time out. Considering LHBs have a 10 point higher wOBA, but 27 point higher xwOBA against Anderson, again due to the changeup, I wonder if the Yankees will leave most of their LHBs in here.
Opp wRC+: 106 (9.3 K-BB%, 119 Home, 130 L7 days)
DEF: -13
B30: 3.98
Nestor Cortes has allowed 18 runs over his last 18.2 innings and it’s not as if I’m cherry picking starts because he’s allowed at least three runs in no more than 5.1 innings in each one of his last four. He’s done this with an 8.7 K-BB% (17.5% on the season) with nine barrels (13.6%) and a 42.4% hard contact rate that actually improves on his 44.4% season rate. The Rays threw Nestor’s Home/Road argument out with three home runs in the Bronx a few starts back. His 4.16 ERA is within half a run of all except a 4.75 dERA. His PitchingBot grades range from 49 to 56 with a 99 Stuff+ nearly matching a 101 Pitching+. Average pitcher works for me.
Opp wRC+: 93 (20.8 K%, 85 Road, 70 L7 days)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 3.77
Would it surprise you if I sided with the Angels here? Considering I’ve probably railed against Anderson most of the year with his unsustainable numbers. Even so, he and Cortes are fairly similar in terms of their numbers and even if the Angels don’t exactly have the advantage in any aspect of this game (maybe baserunning), they don’t have to for a line to still be too high and I think this one gets there above +200. With similar bullpen numbers, I’ll look for an F5 here, which are nowhere to be found for any game as of 9pm EST.
DFS Notes: On a five game slate with three protected environments, we still have significant risk of a washout. The biggest thing in favor of playing through is that it’s a game that will very difficult to reschedule. One roof we already know is closed, one never tells us, but is open around three quarters of the time, while the other is frequently open, but has become more difficult to confirm. One team above five runs, two at exactly 4.75 and two more at 4.5 implied runs with three below four runs and even one below three. Oh, and we still don’t know what the Tigers are doing in the highest upside matchup on the small slate.
The good news here, in the Bronx, is that it’s the earliest game on the slate, so perhaps we’ll have some idea which way they’re leaning before lock. It would be more of a shame to lose this game because Cortes is probably a top three arm on this slate in a very close group of pitchers. I’d really prefer to use him over any of the other options because he only costs $8K. He has been struggling and I do like Zach Neto (199 wRC+, .172 ISO v LHP, 176 wRC+ L30 days) as perhaps my top value at SS (RHBs .334 wOBA, .307 xwOBA against Cortes). The Yankee bullpen has middling estimators. Everyone except Kahnle worked in Wednesday’s double-header, but had two days off prior. The Angels have the second lowest team run total on the slate (3.28). The Yankees top the board (5.22) by nearly half a run. Who are they’re good hitters against LHP aside from Judge (219, .378, 266) and Soto (185, .250, 238)? Just Torres (109, .193, 128). And this is part of why I like the Angels as large dogs. I do really like Soto here because I’m not sure too many understand the reverse split. The Anderson/O’Hoppe combo can be run on. The Angels have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days (just barely), but, like the Yankees, nearly everybody worked yesterday after two days off. Joyce is the exception though. With four days off, I’d feel almost certain the Yankees are going to see him if it’s close. Forgot to mention the 10 mph wind in from center is one of the reasons I'm a bit higher on Cortes (and pitchers in general here) for DFS purposes, despite playing the Angels.
Update 3:30 EST: No further update on the weather. Yankees remain with four LHBs. Still, a 2.65% gain on Angels. Looks like I made the right decision last night. F5 line is much lower.
Orioles @ Blue Jays
With just a 12.7 K-BB% and below average ground ball rate, Dean Kremer’s 10.5% Barrels/BBE are a killer. Even in Baltimore, 10 of his 15 barrels have left the park and 14 of 25 overall. Seven of those home runs at home have been surrendered to LHBs, just three to RHBs, which makes perfect sense. Kremer’s 4.39 ERA is nearly perfectly in line with his 4.36 SIERA, but lower than other estimators, including a 5.02 xERA. As mentioned, Kremer’s real problem is with LHBs (.344 wOBA, .364 xwOBA) and this is not a weakness the Blue Jays are fully capable of exploiting.
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.4 K%, 100 Home, 105 L7 days)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.89
Kevin Gausman just can’t get it going with any consistency this year. He’s followed 10 strikeouts with three and eight with two over his last five starts. The one positive is that he’s consistently going through the lineup three times (at least 26 batters faced in nine of last 11), but with an increase in ERA (4.89) and estimators over that span with just a 13.7 K-BB%, 13.1% Barrels/BBE and 46% hard contact rate. All of his estimators are almost exactly half a run removed from Gausman’s 4.56 ERA, but they don’t all go in the same direction with a 5.09 xERA and others near four. His .303 BABIP is actually 11 points below his career rate, but he’s only stranding 67% of runners this year (7.1% below career). The splitter’s not toast (31.7%, -0.4 RV/100, 54 PB grade), but not his normally dominant pitch, while the fastball (51.8%) is much better via PB grade (65) than run value (-0.3 RV/100). Gausman’s mere 95 Stuff+ mark works up to a 105 Pitching+, which tells you the command is still there, the concern is for the actual stuff.
Opp wRC+: 118 (20.8 K%, 116 Road, 122 L7 days)
DEF: 16.5
B30: 5.16
DFS Notes: A 98 PRF with the roof closed only increases to 100 on average when it is open, the most significant boost would be to right-handed power, something more likely to assist the Jays here. Both teams at 4.5 implied runs. I believe Kremer to be overpriced in a low upside matchup. Gausman is volatile enough that he’s still probably one of my top three tonight, just ahead of Cortes, but costing $1K to $2K more. Adequately priced I would call it. Mentioned above, Kremer’s issues with LHBs, while the Blue Jays are predominantly right-handed. Batters from that side have a .255 wOBA, but .327 xwOBA. Horwitz (139 wRC+, .147 ISO) is the only above average LHB against RHP projected for the Jays. Varsho (87, .213) and Loperfido (95, .136) are the others. I’d find the latter more useful at a low price if batting second. The red hot Vlad (295 wRC+ L30 days) is still probably the top bat here (151, .198). He has a 173 wRC+ at home this year. The O’s have very middling pen estimators L30 days. Not mentioned above, batters from either side are between a .327 and .368 wOBA and xwOBA against Gausman this year. O’Hearn (129, .164), Santander (137, .294), Cowser (127, .216) and Henderson (171, .288) all look strong tonight, especially with Toronto’s worst in the league pen estimators L30 days, while Cabrera (34) has worked two in a row.
Update 3:35 EST: No roof info. Found out it was open last night, something that wasn't posted until game time. Loperfido bats 6th, killing his value. Varsho 2nd.
Rays @ Cardinals
Striking out 12 of his last 45 with just three walks, Shane Baz is starting to look like the guy Rays fans (are there any) dreamed on a couple of years ago after a rough go of it against the Yankees and Rangers his first few times out. The contact profile has been a problem. Five of his seven barrels came in just one start (his second) against the Yankees, but his hard contact rate has been above 45% in each of his five starts. With just two of his barrels leaving the park (both in that Yankee game), Baz has a nearly 3.60 ERA matching 3.49 FIP with contact neutral estimators around three-quarters of a run higher and then a 5.69 xERA. I can’t give the latter so much credence in so few starts and he’s had a SwStr greater than 17% in four of his five starts. Deferring to pitch modeling, Baz has a 115 Stuff+, but 102 Pitching+. A 64 grade fastball (44.8%, -1.3 RV/100) is of particular interest here, as the Cardinals are the second worst offense against such pitches (-0.61 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 104 (103 Home, 87 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.15
We know what Kyle Gibson is. No need to belabor this. He’ll pop a few nice starts, get smashed every now and then, eat innings and be a reliable back end of the rotation guy for a marginal playoff contender. His 12.2 K-BB% with 9.2% Barrels/BBE is below average work this year. Gibson’s 4.04 ERA is below, but within one-third of a run of all estimators except a 4.80 xERA. He’s allowed 16 barrels in a power suppressing home park, but just five home runs. Nine of 16 have become homers on the road. Left-handed batters have been a particular problem for him (.354 wOBA, .364 xwOBA). Gibson’s 93 Stuff+ doesn’t improve much to a 95 Pitching+ with a 4.94 Bot ERA suggesting he’s just about toast.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.2 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.96
I’d probably side with Baz’s fastball in this matchup at any plus money price if he had a couple more starts under his belt. The Rays traded some relievers, so those monthly estimators may not be true, but it would be hard to say they’re at a disadvantage there. I may change my mind later, but regardless, I’d like to see some F5 lines somewhere. Still not on DraftKings or FanDuel at 10 PM EST.
DFS Notes: Low 80s with a near double digit wing blowing in from near the left field pole, the Rays are third lowest on the board (3.84) with the Cardinals in the middle (4.16). I think Gibson might be the most playable pitcher on DK ($7.9K) because he has a chance to give you something useful and is unlikely to get totally bombed. Baz is interesting here, but since throwing 92 pitches in his first start back, he’s been above 80 in just one other start. I like the guy and think the Rays probably should be even money here, but he hasn’t exceeded seven strikeouts in a start yet. Goldy is the only projected Cardinal below a 99 wRC+ v RHP with Burleson (146, .225 ISO v RHP) is the most interesting. The former does have the highest wRC+ among those projected over the last 30 days though (117). Batters from the left side a .350 wOBA and .403 xwOBA against Baz so far with RHBs .259 and .325. The Rays have the best bullpen estimators L30 days and are very fresh. Brandon Lowe (136, .289) is the only projected Ray above a 110 wRC+ or .190 ISO v RHP. He has a 198 wRC+ over the last 30 days with only two other projected Rays above 81. His 153 road wRC+ leads the projected lineup too. Gibson is difficult to run on. The Cardinals have pen estimators barely outside the bottom third of the league last 30 days with Helsley (40 BF L2 days) likely unavailable. Hopefully, I’ve laid out good enough reasons why I could roster Gibson, but still bet the Rays (though I haven’t actually done the latter yet).
Tigers @ Mariners
Without a confirmed pitcher for Detroit, we don’t have a line yet on this game. I’m using Kenta Maeda (Roster Resource) as a place holder. The Tigers have been giving him bulk innings behind an opener the last few times through the rotation. He’s had strong relief appearances against the Twins and Dodgers, but poor ones against the Royals and Blue Jays. Go figure. Right-handed batters have a .379 wOBA and .370 xwOBA against him this year, while all estimators are above four and a half, though not nearly as bad as his 6.75 ERA. His 91 Stuff+ works up to a respectable 98 Pitching+. The splitter (29.8%, 55 PB grade) and slider (29.8%, 52 PB grade) are still fine, but the fastball sucks (24.5%, 37), though all three have poor run values.
It’s now noon on the east coast on Thursday. MLB still has TBD listed. Roster Resource now has Brant Hurter. Rotogrinders has Alex faedo. Twitter searches reveal nothing.
Opp wRC+: 96 (28.2 K%, 90 Home)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.42
The lengthy blurb before Woo’s last start…
“Bryan Woo has completed five innings in just one of his last five starts. Is he healthy? Velocity has been up and down all season, sitting at 94.3 mph last time out, below his season average and his previous three starts, which were all 94.9 mph or better on average. The 2.35 ERA is a bit fluky by contact neutral estimators, but he’s walked just 2.9% of batters with a barrel rate that’s even lower (2.5%) with just a 34.4% hard contact rate. That projects a 2.49 xERA. He still has the goods (104 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 2.83 Bot ERA), but we can never tell if he’s healthy and even then, he’s not likely to go much further than twice through the lineup.”
Of course, at the same 94.3 mph, Woo went seven shutout innings, 26 batters and 92 pitches deep last time out. It was only the second time he’d reached 80. The fastball (50.7%, 0.6 RV/100, 61 PB grade) and sinker (25.5%, 3.3 RV/100, 76 PB grade) grade off the chart. Detroit is bottom quarter of the league against both pitches including worst in the game against sinkers.
Opp wRC+: 90 (86 Road, 72 L7 days)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.82
DFS Notes: A park run factor of 83 on average with the roof open, like Toronto, right-handed power would get the biggest boost. We won’t know, so we have to assume open, going with the 75%. If we somehow get word that someone is going to be throwing somewhere around five innings against the Mariners, they’re probably worth a look here. Still using Maeda as a place holder just because, maybe you hope Robles (148 wRC+, .176 ISO v RHP, 173 wRC+ L30 days) continues his hot streak on the cheap. The Mariners have a 4.16 team total in the middle of the board. Polanco is the only projected batters below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP, Rojas (58) and Raley (43) the only two below a 110 wRC+ L30 days. The Tigers have the sixth worst pen estimators L30 days, traded some guys and Foley (53) has thrown four of the last five days. Woo is tricky. Tell me he’s going to be cut loose like he was last start and he might be the top arm on the board. I certainly believe he’ll be heavily owned, but I’m not sure the Mariners let him do that twice in a row and he costs at least $9K. That said, with batters from either side below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against him and only Madris (131, .140) and Vierling (108, .204) above average against RHP, I’m not interested in any Detroit bats here. Woo should be effective for however long he’s in there for. None of these Detroit hitters are particularly hot and Perez is the only one above average on the road. The Mariners have middling pen estimators L30 days, but are fairly fresh at the top.
Update 6:45 EST: Brenan Hanifee is starting for the Tigers. We know that much at least.
Phillies @ Diamondbacks
No line on this game yet. No confirmed pitchers. It might be Allard and Montgomery. Will update with more information in the morning.
No line on this game yet. No confirmed pitchers. It might be Allard and Montgomery. Will update with more information in the morning.
Now confirmed, Kolby Allard has struck out five of 32 batters faced (one start) with three barrels (12%) and an average projection of four and three-quarter runs per nine. Just an 11.7 K-BB% in 13 AAA starts and an 11.0 career K-BB% (253 innings). Was surprised to find out he’s only 26. PitchingBot grades everything except the 11 curveballs he’s thrown above 50, resulting in a 3.97 Bot ERA. A small sample 67 Stuff+ grade plays all the way up to a 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.5 K%, 113 Road, 178 L7 days) (incl. Wed)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.85
Jordan Montgomery has struck out seven of his last 72 batters with as many walks and I’m at a complete loss here. There must be some sort of lingering injury, which he likely believes to be caused by the lack of a proper spring training. His best estimator is a 4.65 FIP. Right-handed batters have a .395 wOBA and .374 xwOBA against him. His Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks are each 95 with a 4.67 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: 15
B30: 3.60
DFS Notes: Thank you to the Diamondbacks for already telling me the roof is closed and I can expect a perfectly neutral (100 PRF) run environment. Never the less, with quality offenses facing a pair of below average LHPs, each team has 4.75 team run totals, tied for second on the board. Obviously, any interest lies on the offensive side of the board. The only factors that could make you even consider Montgomery are price ($6.8K) and a great defense. He hasn’t seen the sixth inning in four straight starts though. Marsh (42) is the only projected Phillie below a 110 wRC+ v LHP and also the only one below a .170 ISO. Despite holding LHBs below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA, I’m still considering Schwarber (189, .231) against Montgomery because you can’t not consider a guy who’s hit four home runs in his last two games. In fact, his 145 wRC+ last 30 days leads the projected lineup with Bohm (124, .202, 135) the only other above average bat over that time span. Realmuto (127, .173) may be the top catcher on the board. Turner (154, .212) might be the top Philadelphia bat here. Marsh is also the only projected bat below a 97 wRC+ on the road. The Diamondbacks have top third of the league pen estimators and have added to the pen, However, just above everyone in that pen has worked Friday, Sunday, Monday and Wednesday. Puk hasn’t gone over 12 pitches in any of his four outings though. Can’t say that about any other pitcher of consequence. Marte (207, .354, 253) is the one bat I’m looking to jam into my lineup tonight. Grichuk (120, .124, 43) and Gurriel (138, .177, 85) are the only other ones above a 100 wRC+ v LHP among those projected with nobody else reaching a .190 ISO. Carroll, Bell and Suarez all exceed a 160 wRC+ L30 days though. Carroll has added the most base running runs in baseball via Statcast and it’s not particularly close. The Philly pen has the third worst pen estiamtors L30 days, though Strahm (33 pitches last two days) is the only one who may be unavailable.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
Add comment
Comments