About two-thirds of the way there late Monday night. Missing 11 pitchers exactly because I already had Cannon written up from Monday. Repeating the same play at almost the same line there too. I'm probably not going to be giving late umpire updates anymore. I've been getting them from Swish Analytics and often note a different umpire than they originally listed. When I go back to recheck, several umpires are different from what they originally listed. Too many errors unless you're checking back really late I guess.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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Diamondbacks @ Guardians
Arizona probably wasn’t excepting Eduardo Rodriguez to be making his first start of the season in August when they signed him. A career 15.7 K-BB% with some ups and downs with an ERA and estimators around four, that’s just where he’s projected on average. Fangraphs does not have a record of any rehab starts, though there must be some somewhere. MiLB doesn’t have any rehab starts listed either though.
Opp wRC+: 114 (109 Home, 131 L7 days)
DEF: 14
B30: 3.54
With seven runs over his last 22.1 innings, Ben Lively has actually increased his strand rate to 83.8% and decreased his BABIP to .260. He’s also reduced his K-BB to 14.1% and increased his hard contact rate to 42.1% over this stretch. Yet, a 3.64 xERA is his only estimator within half a run of a 3.42 ERA. Lively is down to a 69 Stuff+ mark, giving Chris Flexen some competition at the bottom of that board.
Opp wRC+: 108 (19.9 K%, 108 Road, 174 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.60
Padres @ Pirates
Dylan Cease has allowed five hits, not runs, hits over his last 27.2 innings. A 36.2 K% over his last eight starts has driven him up to 32.3% on the year. At that point, 10.2% Barrels/BBE is bearable. Especially with a 36.2% hard contact rate overall. Cease’s worst estimator, a 3.16 xFIP is still more than a quarter run better than his 3.42 ERA (70.7 LOB%). Cease slings sliders (42.1%, 1.5 RV/100, 61 PB grade) and the Pirates hate them (-0.5 wSL/C is eight worst).
Opp wRC+: 84 (24 K%, 88 Home)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.34
Bailey Falter has allowed 21 runs (19 earned) over his last 31.1 innings. His 3.95 ERA is still more than half a run below all estimators. Falter has just 89 Stuff+ and 96 Pitch+ marks with a 4.47 Bot ERA. He has nearly the same rate of barrels (9.2%) as Cease with half the strikeout rate (16.6%).
Opp wRC+: 101 (17.4%, 107 Road, 132 L7 days)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.93
The current F5 price on FD (-158) is just a bit too small and I don’t think it needs further explanation beyond the numbers above. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 4:30 EST: No Kim or Arraez (who appears to be a platoon player now), but also no Cruz. A 4.04% gain on SD F5.
Reds @ Marlins
Something is off with Nick Lodolo, who has allowed 24 runs (23 earned) over his last 31.2 innings with a league average 13.4 K-BB% (18% season) and 12.5% Barrels/BBE (8.2% season). For the season, all estimators are below, but within half a run of his 3.99 ERA and all PitchingBot grades are 55 or higher, matching up well with pitches the Marlins struggle with because they struggle with everything. Those pitch grades have only dropped slightly (53 or higher) over this rough patch.
Opp wRC+: 75 (7.5 HR/FB)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.79
Six home runs on 10 barrels (13.9%), but a 17.5 K-BB% for Max Meyer through five starts. He’s also struck out 17 of his last 62. The fastball (39.1%) and slider (44.7%) exceed PitchingBot grades, along with a 104 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 90 (25.4 K%, 90 Road)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 2.81
If I take the bullpen numbers at face value, the Marlins are the play here. I want to see what the currently unavailable F5 says because they still may be, as I only have the Reds slightly favored here.
Update 3:40 EST: Line for MIA has dropped before I got a chance to play F5.
Giants @ Nationals
Hayden Birdsong has a 61 grade changeup (16.5%) via PitchingBot, that’s his worst pitch by Run Value (-4.7 RV/100), but a curveball (18.4%) worth 5.4 RV/100 with just a 43 PB grade. The consensus all around is that the fastball sucks (42.3%, 30 PB grade), but the secondaries should be able to carry him and have to an 18.3 K-BB% with a 14.8 SwStr% through six starts. An 11.9% walk rate hurts though, driving his 106 Stuff+ down to a 96 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 95 (20.7 K%, 92 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.77
Mackenzie Gore suddenly has a bad everything, allowing 21 runs over his last 21.1 innings with a 0.0 K-BB% and 48.6% hard contact rate. The ERA is up to 4.54 and there’s probably some misfortune in a .363 BABIP and 67.5 LOB%, but the velocity has slowly been declining for some time and it just appears as if he’s got nothing left in the tank. Gore is down to a 95 Pitching+ over this span (102 season).
Opp wRC+: 119
DEF: -9
B30: 4.41
Here, we already have the F5 line and it’s a bit light at -114 for the road team with a pair of pitches moving in opposite directions and the Giants pummeling LHP. There’s no edge they don’t have here, but I’ll take the cheaper F5 line.
Update 4 EST: Small 1.86% gain on SF F5. Don't mind SFG o4.5 (-115) here either.
Angels @ Yankees
Davis Daniel’s estimators are almost a run below his 4.91 ERA, running only as high as a 4.09 dERA, but its been much more about command (2.2 BB%) than anything else. This is confirmed with his 79 Stuff+ mark increasing to a 102 Pitching+. It’s just four starts though, following poor scouting reports and he’s only shined against the Detroit and Colorado offenses. Daniel has an actual 130 point reverse split, but Statcast has batters from either side between a .310 and .320 xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 124 (119 Home, 150 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.05
With three walks and runs allowed over 5.1 innings in Philly, Luis Gil was a bit less successful than his previous three starts, but still carries a 27.5 K-BB% and 34.9% hard contact rate over that span and he’s done this facing the Mets, O’s and Red Sox too, not a bunch of cream puffs. On the season, Gil’s 3.20 ERA is in line with a 3.36 ERA, though contact neutral estimators hover around four (.234 BABIP). Pitch modeling is more in that latter camp too with PitchingBot grades between 48 and 54 creating a 4.23 Bot ERA to go along with a 110 Stuff+ mark, but 101 Pithcing+.
Opp wRC+: 90 (85 Road)
DEF: 13.5
B30: 3.69
Tempted to jump on the Yankees over 4.5. Don’t really believe in Daniel, but don’t have enough of a read on him.
DFS Notes: An 11 game Tuesday slate includes three domes (one likely open, one maybe, one almost certainly closed), one potential washout (which we’ll get to immediately) and quite a bit of wind. Five teams reach five implied runs with the Mets more than half a run ahead of the field (and maybe much more). Just two more exceed four and a half and seven below four implied runs. I found it very difficult to build a lineup, not because of pitching, but because offense is obviously stacking a high priced Mets lineup, while positions like Catcher and Third Base are particularly difficult tonight.
We start in the Bronx with tonight’s one and only potential washout. If the Yankees (5.8) did not step to the plate tonight, the Mets would lead the field by more than a run. The Angels (3.2) are fourth from the bottom and serve as fodder for Gil, whose price I’m certainly not paying on this slate, especially with the rain risk. The only interest here is in Yankee bats, most obviously Judge (216 wRC+, .380 ISO v RHP) and Soto (192, .302) if you can figure out some way to afford them. However, Wells (118, .191) may be the sole reason I want this game to play. He’s my favorite DK Catcher value on the board (don’t need a catcher necessarily on FD). The Angels are a bottom third of the league pen.
Update 3:45 EST: PPD
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed 17 runs (16 earned) over his last 28 innings, but with a 21.5 K-BB%, bringing his season rate up to 19.1%. Five of his seven barrels have left the yard during this span, all at home. He’s actually kept 51.2% of his contact on the ground in these five starts too. I hope nobody is concerned about any of this because he’s just a few command issues away from Ace status. All estimators are below, but within one-third of a run of his 3.86 ERA. Pitch modeling seems to think he’s an Ace already with 119 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ scores. A 2.87 Bot ERA is shaped by not a single pitch below a 55 score, while the fastball (46.4%, 0.1 RV/100, 64 PB grade) may work best against the Blue Jays (-0.47 wFA/C is fifth worst).
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.4 K%, 9.7 HR/FB)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.05
Twenty runs over Chris Bassitt’s last 25.2 innings with a 10.7 K-BB% that brings his season mark down to 12.4%. Stuff+ (94) and Pitching+ (98) marks have dropped below average and he can’t get LHBs out anymore (.359 wOBA, .368 xwOBA), which is not what you want in a matchup against the Orioles as currently constructed.
Opp wRC+: 118 (20.7 K%, 117 Road, 154 L7 days)
DEF: 16.5
B30: 5.23
DFS Notes: A 98 PRF with the roof closed increases to 100 on average with it open. The problem is that it’s getting harder to find out lately. Right-handed power has the most to gain with the roof open and that’s not what we’re interested in here. The Blue Jays come in at 3.93 runs with the Orioles at 4.57. I have Grayson Rodriguez as the fourth best pitcher on the slate, but only a better value than Gil in his price range. Problems include a low upside Toronto lineup (in terms of strikeouts) and G-Rod’s reverse split against a predominantly right-handed lineup. O’Hearn, Santander, Henderson and Cowser are LHBs exceeding a 130 wRC+ with a .199+ wRC+ v RHP this year. The Blue Jays have the second worst pen estimators over the last 30 days.
Update 4:10 EST: No roof info. No Mullins. No Mayo. Six LHBs against Bassitt.
Brewers @ Braves
Colin Rea doesn’t have a single estimator within four-fifths of a run of his 3.59 ERA (.258 BABIP, 78.8 LOB%). On a positive note, he does have a 19.9 K-BB% over his last 33.1 innings. Rea doesn’t really have strong pitch modeling either though with PitchingBot grades between 43 and 51 (4.54 Bot ERA) and 85 Stuff+ and 96 Pitching+ scores.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24.6 K%)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 4.03
On the other side, Bryce Elder’s 5.67 ERA is more than a run above estimators ranging from a 3.91 dERA to a 4.64 xERA, but with just a 12.2 K-BB% and 44.6% hard contact rate. The slider (31.1%, -1.1 RV/100, 53 PB grade) is his only PitchingBot grade above 40 with a 5.28 Bot ERA, along with 93 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 107 (101 Road)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.17
The Braves may have the slightly better pitcher, the Brewers the slightly better offense, which a five month younger version of me wouldn’t have believed he was saying, so you give Braves a small edge for home field advantage F5. But then you’d be completely ignoring the large defensive gap. That’s while I’ll side with the Brewers (+114) here. Rea’s been more interesting lately as well.
DFS Notes: A near double digit wind blowing out to the right side with temps in the mid-80s is fine here because we weren’t interested in pitchers in the first place. The Braves (4.73) are fifth from the top with a middle of the board appearance for the Brew Crew (4.27). Despite LHBs owning a .314 wOBA and .369 xwOBA against Rea, who are you going to roster? Olson (88 wRC+, .162 ISO v RHP). RHBs (.290 wOBA, .316 xwOBA) are more interesting. Particularly Ozuna (154, .296), Riley (123, .202) and Soler (93, .152). The Brewers have middling pen estimators L30 days, but you can run on Rea & Contreras. Just two projected LHBs for the Brewers (.407 wOBA, .369 xwOBA against Elder with RHBs below .300). Neither reaches a 100 wRC+ or .175 ISO vs RHP this year. Six of the seven RHBs exceed a 100 wRC+. Chourio (111, .186) may be my favorite Brewer, but this is not a bullpen I want to tangle with.
Update 5:40 EST: Mitchell bats third. A 1.75% gain on MIL F5.
Rays @ Cardinals
After missing more than a season and a half, Jeffrey Springs returned to strike out three of 18 Marlins, allowing seven base runners, including a pair of barrels. His fastball velocity was down a mile and a half per hour. Perhaps realizing that, Springs only threw it 36.8% of the time (45.5% career). He got 30 innings of rehabbing in at AAA with an impressive 21.4 K-BB%, so not to be too worried. With that much work under his belt, why did the Rays pull him at 76 pitches? Will they do so again? Projections are in the upper threes, which is where his career rates lie, but that’s counting some rough work before getting to the Rays.
Opp wRC+: 82 (20.1 K%, 104 Home)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.31
Some might say Sonny Gray finally got on track with seven innings of two run ball at Wrigley last time out because he’s allowed 18 runs over his previous 24 innings. I’d say he was already there with his third seven inning outing in four starts and a 26.4 K-BB% over his last seven starts, raising his season rate to 24.9%. With 9.4% Barrels/BBE, Gray has a matching ERA (3.72) and xERA (3.72). Every other estimator is below three and I’m in the camp that believes his 65.6 LOB% should regress. He’s also had 12 unearned runs, which may be why the xERA and ERA match despite the strand rate. Only one of the five pitches Gray throws more than 10% of the time has a PitchingBot grade below 60 with 109 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.2 K%, 101 Road, 132 L7 days)
DEF: -7
B30: 4.08
DFS Notes: Low 80s with a near 15 mph wind in from around the left field pole. Gray would be my preferred pitcher on FD, but I could not build an acceptable lineup with him. He’s my favorite pitcher on the board, but a bit better value on FD. The Rays have a 3.41 team total with the Cardinals at 4.09. I’m concerned with Springs’s workload and havent’ seen enough from him yet to recommend him. The Cardinals don’t hit LHP well, but don’t strike out a ton either. The Rays still have a solid pen behind Springs. Gray has had some issues with LHBs (.326 wOBA, .311 xwOBA), which makes me look at Brandon Lowe (138 wRC+, .243 ISO v RHP), but that’s about it. It’s really Sonny Gray or bust for me here.
Update 4:35 EST: Slight drop in temperature with the wind now projected to be blowing across the field. At +134, we're closing in on a price where the Rays have some value even with the uncertainty of Springs.
Astros @ Rangers
Whatever Framber Valdez was looking for, he sure seems to have found it. He’d been trending towards league average pitcher all season until striking out 10 in three of his last four starts. Sure, the Marlins and Pirates are in there, but so are the Dodgers. His 29.3 K-BB% over this span has driven his season rate up to 14.7%. He did sacrifice a few ground balls (52.7%) to do it, but strikeouts are automatic outs (unless the catcher drops the ball) and he still has a 59.3 GB% on the season. He allowed just three barrels over this span and dropped his overall hard hit rate (42.9% last four starts, 47.9% season). What has he done? Fewer sinkers and more curveballs. Makes sense. We’re talking his best pitch (29.9%, 1.1 RV/100, 58 PB grade, 41.3 Whiff%) and second best one (49.2%, 0.3 RV/100, 55 PB grade, 12.6 Whiff%). Throw the best one more, duh. Framber’s 3.56 ERA matches his SIERA and is within one-third of a run of all estimators.
Opp wRC+: 100 (97 Home, 83 L7 days)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.08
Another returnee here. Tyler Mahle also missed more than a season and a half. He struck out 18 of 66 batters in rehabs from the Complex to AAA. Projections average nearly four and a quarter, which is right around his career rates.
Opp wRC+: 106 (19.4 K%, 62 L7 days)
DEF: 18.5
B30: 4.24
DFS Notes: Expecting a closed roof, neutral run environment, Framber Valdez is my second best pitcher on the slate and maybe even a better value than Sonny Gray. He’s in my DK single entry and would probably have to be my FD pitcher, had I played a lineup there. Both teams have 4.25 implied run lines. There are four batters in the upper two-thirds of the projected Texas lineup exceeding a 25 K% v LHP. With increased upside recently, I think Framber can get it done. That said, Semien (137 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Langford (155, .254) have done some damage against southpaws this year and you can run on Framber. No idea what to do with Mahle here. I’m not going to use him, but he’s become a reverse splitter in recent years and is difficult to run on. The Rangers have a bottom third pen behind him though with Yates (57), Robinson (52) Chafin (54) and LeClerc (48) all working at least two of the last three (Chafin three of L4).
Twins @ Cubs
Pablo Lopez has been far from as bad as his 4.65 ERA asserts, although he certainly hasn’t had it as often as last year on a start to start basis. Three straight quality starts though, two of seven innings with a total of five runs allowed. A 22.3 K-BB% and average contact profile produces estimators only as high as a 3.75 FIP with all non-FIP estimators more than a run better than actual results. A career low 97 Stuff+ grade works up to a 104 Pitching+ that’s below last year’s 109, but the second best mark of his career. Last year, all PB grades were 57 or better with a 2.97 Bot ERA. This year, the curveball dips below 50 with everything else 58 or higher with a 3.22 Bot ERA. Just a small step backwards and not nearly as bad as the ERA suggests.
Opp wRC+: 96 (93 Home) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.58
On the opposite side, Shota Imanaga’s 3.09 ERA is still outpacing his estimators (3.44 FIP – 4.05 dERA). And that’s all early season strand rate and home run suppression with the wind blowing in at Wrigley.
First nine starts: 0.84 ERA – 23.4 K-BB% - .266 BABIP – 93.8 LOB% - 4.8 HR/FB
Last 11 starts: 5.03 ERA – 19.5 K-BB% - .313 BABIP – 66.9 LOB% - 13 HR/FB
What happened? The weather warmed up and the wind wasn’t so consistently blowing in at Wrigley. The truth is somewhere in between.
Opp wRC+: 112 (20.8 K%, 101 Road, 138 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.27
DFS Notes; Imanaga? More like Imalucksack. It’s 69 degrees with a 20 mph wind in from left center. Must be nice to live like that. These are the two bottom offenses on the board (3.0 each). Imanaga is actually $100 cheaper and the better value on FD, but Lopez is my third favorite pitcher tonight and the one I’m more interested in. I’ve been able to roster both he and Valdez on DK with a Mets stack. Any interest I may have had in Twins bats is blown away by the wind.
Update 5:45 EST: No Buxton again. For what it's worth, Swish Analytics has the pitcher friendly Phil Cuzzi listed as the plate umpire on top of the weather boost these two pitchers get.
Red Sox @ Royals
Just like the game above, we have a pair of pitchers with similar estimators separated by two and a half runs of ERA. In fact, Brayan Bello’s 5.13 ERA is twice Seth Lugo’s 2.57 ERA. Bello also has a .325 BABIP, 70.7 LOB% and 17 of his 27 barrels (8.4%) have left the yard. With a 42.9% hard hit rate overall, his 4.67 xERA actually exceeds his 4.57 FIP, but with a competent 13.8 K-BB%, contact neutral estimators float just below four. Over his last six starts, against some of the best (Yankees, Dodgers) and worst (Marlins, Mariners) offenses in the league, Bello has registered a 19.7 K-BB%, so things are looking up. His 103 Stuff+ becomes a 104 Pitching+ with PitchingBot grades from 51 to 58 with a 3.61 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 99 (18.4 K%, 107 Home) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -11.5
B30: 4.89
Seth Lugo is just six outs from having completed six innings in all of his starts this year, allowing more than three runs just five times, although twice in his last four starts suggests the regression has already begun. Just 12 of his 31 barrels (7.2%) have left the park, though it’s not what you think because six of nine home barrels have left the park in a power suppressing environment. He’s also rocking the .258 BABIP and 80.3 LOB%. If you want to see the biggest difference between these two pitchers, there it is. Non-FIP estimators exceed Lugo’s ERA by more than a run and a quarter. His 98 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+ and 4.37 Bot ERA are all a step behind Bello.
Opp wRC+: 111 (118 Road, 156 L7 days)
DEF: 26.5 (the defenses are also a part of each pitcher’s success or lack of it that’s not going away)
B30: 3.78
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a 10 mph wind blowing in from left-field has the Royals (4.47) upper-middle of the board with the Red Sox (4.03) closer to the bottom. We have one sufficiently priced arm in Lugo, but Bello may be too cheap on DK ($6.5K), although this is a low upside matchup. LHBs have a .280 wOBA and .316 xwOBA against Lugo. Don’t hate Duran (151 wRC+, .276 ISO v RHP) or Devers (196, .371), but neither is cheap, you can’t run on Lugo and the Royals have top half of the league pen estimators L30 days with deadline upgrades. RHBs are within two points of a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Bello with LHBs above .340, but he’s been better recently. Witt (168, .251) is nearly always a top of the board bat and matchup proof. No other Royals really stand out, though Boston has the third worst pen estimators over the last 30 days.
Mets @ Rockies
Luis Severino’s worst start of the season, lasting three innings, pushed his ERA up to 3.93, matching a 3.96 xERA (5.7% Barrels/BBE, 36.1% hard hit rate) with additional estimators running as high as a 4.55 SIERA. The ground ball rate has been dropping (42.4% last 12 starts), despite an increase in sinker usage over that span. Well, that last part is only true over the first two-thirds of that stretch. Over his last four starts, Severino is throwing 30% sliders, but still doesn’t have a double digit SwStr% effort to show for it. With a 47.8 GB% on the year, the problem is that his 10% K-BB isn’t improving along the way. Batters with the platoon advantage now exceed a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against Severino. Not necessarily a problem here, though the lack of ground balls might be.
Opp wRC+: 82 (25.5 K%, 84 Home, 61 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.50
Kyle Freeland has posted quality starts with two earned runs or fewer in six of his seven starts back from the IL. Guess which one start I bought in on. Yup, six runs in San Fransisco, his only multi-home run game since returning. However, he still struck out eight with a single walk and has an impressive 18.5 K-BB% over this stretch. On the negative side is the 11.8% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed over this span. That’s a 2.91 ERA/3.65 FIP/3.62 xFIP line, but a much higher xERA, which the Statcast page on his game log on Fangraphs does not tell us when we split time frames. Right-handed batters exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Freeland on the season with LHBs at a .353 wOBA, but .319 xwOBA. Freeland’s 82 Stuff+ works up to a 97 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 120 (115 Road)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 4.39
DFS Notes: If it weren’t already all about the offenses here (one particularly), how about low 80s with a double digit wind out to center? Should the game in the Bronx not play, the Rockies would move up to the second best run total (5.2) more than a run behind the Mets (6.3). Batters from either side between a .288 and .321 wOBA and xwOBA against Severino. Toglia (76 wRC+, .235 ISO v RHP), McMahon (99, .170), Doyle (109, .220), Blackmon (87, .153) and Tovar (101, .188) have promise here. The Mets actually now have the sixth best pen estimators L30 days and nearly overhauled the entire pen. The only question is which Mets. The answer, whichever ones fit. Only Bader (66) and Taylor (45) are below a 105 wRC+ v LHP (Alvarez the only other one below 134). Alonso, Vientos, Nimmo, Martinez and Lindor all exceed a .190 ISO. Iglesias seems to be the cheap necessity here. The Rockies have the sixth worst pen estimators L30 days.
Tigers @ Mariners
Just two of Keider Montero’s nine outings have resulted in fewer than four runs. Now, 11 home runs on just 10 barrels suggests that he doesn’t deserve his 6.18 ERA, but his best estimator is still a 4.40 xFIP with a 5.06 xERA. Pitch modeling is more optimistic (96 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 4.26 Bot ERA) that he has average pitcher upside, but batters from either side have at least a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him and the strikeout rate is going in the wrong direction (15.6% last six starts).
Opp wRC+: 96 (28.1 K%, 90 Home, 111 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.46
Like Bassitt far above, Luis Castillo’s decline can be directly correlated to his sudden inability to get LHBs out (.354 wOBA, .359 xwOBA). Batters from the right-hand side are still below .265 against him this year. He has a 23.2 K-BB% against RHBs, a 9.3 K-BB% against LHBs. A 16.5 K-BB% overall is his second lowest mark since 2018 and three and a half points below his 20.1 K-BB% over the previous two seasons. This isn’t to say Castillo has been bad (102 Stuff+ and Pitching+ with PitchingBot grades from 48 to 55), but estimators ranging from a 3.71 FIP to a 3.91 SIERA are clearly above the 3.43 ERA. The third best pitcher on this staff is not a bad gig.
Opp wRC+: 90 (85 Road, 54 L7d ays)
DEF: -8
B30: 4.00
DFS Notes: An open roof around 75% of the time gives us an 83 PRF on average with right-handed power getting a major boost from the roof being open. Castillo is fine in this spot and maybe my fifth or sixth best arm overall behind Imanaga and maybe ahead of Lugo. A lot of bunched together names there. Montero is very cheap in a matchup with upside. It’s hard to throw out pitchers against the Mariners and only Turner lowers their strikeout rate. Arozarena strikes out as often as the rest of the lineup. Bligh Madris and Colt Keith are LHBs exceeding a 140 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Believe it or not, Jorge Polanco (88) is the only projected Seattle bat below a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year. Victor Robles is rocking a 179 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Montero has been tough to run on, but the Tigers have the fifth worst pen estimators over the last month.
White Sox @ Athletics
Jonathan Cannon impressed out of the chute with 32.1 innings of a 3.34 ERA/3.20 FIP/3.57 xFIP with a 16.4 K-BB%. Staring with a disastrous one inning outing in Detroit, he’s generated a 4.78 ERA/5.32 FIP/5.32 xFIP over his last 37.2 innings with just a 3.8 K-BB%. Maintaining an average contact profile throughout, a 4.22 xERA is now the best of his estimators, while LHBs are up to a .364 wOBA and .347 xwOBA against him. A 93 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ on the season have been just 85 and 98 since that inning in Detroit, a span over which only his changeup (16.1%) exceeds a 50 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 98 (25.6 K%, 112 Home)
DEF: -23
B30: 5.24
Ross Stripling only surrendered a single run to the Giants in his second start back from the IL, but did so without striking out any of the 22 batters he faced. A 12.8 K-BB% isn’t going to cut it in this league, even with a 5% walk rate and 34% hard hit rate (5.3% Barrels/BBE), resulting in a 4.27 xERA. The 56% strand rate should regress, but this is squarely a below average pitcher with contact neutral estimators around five. Is this where the White Flags break the streak.
Opp wRC+: 71 (24.3 K%, 73 Road, 51 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 3.50
This is a copy/paste from Monday because it’s the same pitcher with the same total… “The weather in Oakland doesn’t generally vary very much, so I feel comfortable playing the A’s to score more than 4.5 runs (+100) because they’ve punished the baseball at home. Canning has been trended downward and you find maybe the worst defense and bullpen in the league in White Sox uniforms now. This is one way to jump on the losing streak bandwagon without having to lay -170 with the A’s.”
DFS Notes: Upper 60s with a five mph wind out to left center. The A’s (5.05) are fourth from the top and may end up being the top offense outside Coors tonight. The White Sox (3.45) aren’t bottom of the board at least. Not even against the White Sox would I roster Stripling and a declining Cannon doesn’t exactly have an easy matchup, though it does have upside. There is no longer a single projected Chicago bat reaching a 90 wRC+ against RHP this year. Butler (125 wRC+, .232 ISO v RHP) is the matchup play here, but Rooker (163, .271) has been so good, even if RHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Cannon. It helps that the White Sox have the worst pen estimators in the league last 30 days.
Update 5:55 EST: Line movement towards OAK. Team total now -118.
Phillies @ Dodgers
Cristopher Sanchez allowed 20 runs over 27.1 July innings with a 9.8 K-BB%, 51.6 GB% and 7.2% Barrels/BBE, which aren’t all awful, but declines from season long numbers. That really just illustrates how good he’s been this year. All non-FIP estimators are within one-third of a run of his 3.36 ERA. Right-handed batters are 40 to 50 points better against him, but that still only brings them to a .296 wOBA and .311 xwOBA. Oddly, the Dodgers represent his best pitched game (6 IP, 2 R, 5 K) during this rough patch.
Opp wRC+: 122 (19.8 K%, 123 Home) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.68
Statcast suggest the velocity is down from 90.7 mph each of the last two seasons to 90 mph in two starts this year, but it’s really the 89.6 mph in his second start that’s the larger concern. After striking out six of 20 Giants in a fine debut, he didn’t whiff any of the 21 Padres he faced his last time out. Projections are calling for estimators nearly a quarter run below four. Kershaw had a FIP that bad in 2019, but that’s about it. PitchingBot likes the curveball (12.9%, 56 PB grade), but neither the fastball (36.1%, 41 PB grade), nor slider (41.9%, 47 PB grade), earning a 4.93 Bot ERA through two starts. A bit less frightening are his 98 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ marks, though still not the Kershaw we know and love.
Opp wRC+: 122
DEF: -8
B30: 3.91
DFS Notes: We finish it out with mid 70s and a near double digit wind out to center, but two pitchers I’m not touching at this point in these matchups with each offense at 4.25 implied runs. Sanchez might be reasonably priced enough that that’s too harsh, but I’m still not going to do it. Do you throw in a stack or two against Kershaw? The Dodgers have middling pen estimators. They’ve brought in some reinforcements, but and have frequently, though not heavily worked the last few days. Shohei (139 wRC+, .211 ISO v LHP) still matchup proof. Teoscar (166, .321) and Smith (164, .274) probably viable here too. The Phillies have the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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