A tiny five game slate to ease back into it after the chaos of the trading deadline. The problem now is that team statistics no longer hold the same weight for a good portion of the league, particularly bullpen numbers. The good news is that L30 day estimators should be as functional as ever in just a couple of weeks. What do we do in the meantime? Well a smarter person would have the actual pitchers in the bullpen factored into more complex models. I'll just be taking things with a grain of salt and noting where what you see might not be what you get.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Orioles @ Guardians
Not yet confirmed, this may be where Trevor Rogers makes his Orioles debut. I wouldn’t expect to see anything much different from him yet. Unfortunately, that’s meant an 8.3 K-BB% with 8.9% Barrels/BBE. That generates a 4.42 FIP that’s somewhat in line with a 4.53 ERA with just 12 of 30 barrels leaving the yard. Additional estimators are all higher, but below five. The good news it that he’ll likely keep a low home run to barrel ratio in his Baltimore starts (Cleveland is not exactly a right-handed power haven either). Just ask Cole Irvin, who was DFA’d last week, but owes the last year and a half of his career to the dimensions in Baltimore. Rogers throws four pitches 20% of the time or more, ranging in PitchingBot grades from 40 (slider) to 60 (changeup), but just an 84 Stuff+ mark working up to a 98 Pitching+. Just a six point actual wOBA split with batters from either side within five points of .340, Statcast opens that up to a 32 xwOBA split with RHBs a point below .350.
Opp wRC+: 112 (108 Home)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.61
How does Ben Lively continue to post a 3.44 ERA that’s below estimators ranging from a 3.62 xERA (7.4% Barrels/BBE) to a 4.49 FIP (16 home runs on 21 barrels)? An 83.9 LOB% is a good start. He hasn’t been bad (14.1 K-BB%) despite a lack of quality pitches (70 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+), especially a fastball (31.6%, 0.5 RV/100, 37 PB grade) that the Orioles (0.39 wFA/C is fourth) should crush. The .372 wOBA and .405 xwOBA against it with just a 16.1 Whiff% further confuse the success. Counter to Rogers, Lively has a 68 point reverse wOBA split reduced to 11 points by Statcast and xwOBA with batters from either side within six points of .300 on the latter of those.
Opp wRC+: 117 (20.6 K%, 117 Road)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.54
Royals @ Tigers
Seth Lugo bookended his three-hitter against the White Sox with 11 runs over 11.1 innings against the Red Sox and Cubs. Did anyone in the world not expect his 84.9 LOB% (now 80.3%) not to regress? He pitches in a power suppressing park, where only six of his 14 barrels have turned into home runs, though his 8.6 Home HR/FB is actually slightly worse than his 8.1 Road HR/FB. Give him all the credit in the world for a 16.2 K-BB% that produces non-FIP estimators in the upper threes, but they are all still more than a run above his 2.66 ERA with just a 26 point wOBA split and four point xwOBA one. Statcast believes Lugo has thrown seven pitches more than 100 times this year with PitchingBot grades from 42 (changeup) to 58 (curveball), the latter being the outlier and his only PB grade above 51. About as league average as it gets, a 98 Stuff+ works to a 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 92 (53 L7 days)
DEF: 23
B30: 4.02
Keider Montero has allowed 16 runs (15 earned) over his last 15.1 innings to the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Twins. Tough run with six home runs on just five barrels (9.1%). He hasn’t been good over this stretch (9.7 K-BB%), but maybe deserves better than having his season ERA shot up to 6.38. All non-FIP estimators are more than a run lower. Contact neutral estimators run as low as a 4.34 SIERA. Batters from either side exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA. Batters from the right-side exceed .380. The fastball (53), slider (52) and curveball (52) which make up 90.5% of his pitches thrown, do have solid PitchingBot grades with a barely below average 97 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+. Let’s see how he does against a contact prone, but more marginal offense.
Opp wRC+: 98 (18.7 K%, 84 Road)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.42
Marlins @ Braves
Max Meyer has struck out 17 of 81 batters (11.5 SwStr%), five walks, three home runs, eight barrels (13.8%). Throwing at least 43% sliders in each of his three April starts, he returned throwing a season high 49.4% fastballs last week. In 15 AAA game starts, Meyer posted a 17.6 K-BB%, lower than his 12 start stint with a 20.1 K-BB% at AAA last year. The changeup (14.8%, -6.5 RV/100, 34 PB grade) has been a detriment, while the fastball (53 PB grade) and slider (52) have been fine. Meyer’s 106 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ marks are better than his 4.28 Bot ERA. Non-FIP estimators range from a 3.76 xERA to a 3.93 SIERA through four starts with RHBs above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA, but LHBs below .260.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.5 K%, 104 Home)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 3.18
Written before his last start…
“Charlie Morton appears to not be as cooked as I thought him to be this season. Following last year’s decline to league average pitcher (14.0 K-BB%, 38.8% hard contact rate), he’s avoided further decline (14.5 K-BB%, 38.5% hard contact rate), though Barrels/BBE are up from 7.8% to 9.1%. Still, his 3.92 ERA is below, but within a quarter run of all estimators. That’s because he’s pretty much forsaken a below average fastball (27.7%, -1.5 RV/100, 40 PB grade) that he certainly doesn’t want to test against the Mets (0.48 wFA/C is second best) in favor of even more curveballs (41.2%, 1 RV/100, 60 PB grade). Whatever works.”
He’s now allowed 16 runs (12 earned) over his last 20.1 innings with seven home runs on eight barrels (12.3%) and just an 18.2 K%. There’s been no velocity drop off, so something else must be behind the hard contact increase recently. Both his Z-Contact and O-Contact are up. Morton’s 4.16 season ERA is within one-fifth or a run of all non-FIP estimators and he should still have some success with the curveball (41.4%, 0.7 RV/100, 58 PB grade) against the Marlins (-1.49 wCU/C is worst in MLB, double the next worst team). They did just trade away a bunch of players, but it’s not like the replacement bats are going to be much better right away.
Opp wRC+: 86 (78 Road)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 4.27
The numbers that tell me Meyer has sub-four estimators through four starts are not trustable. The ones that tell me the Marlins have the best bullpen estimators in baseball over the last 30 days are clearly yesterday’s news. Perhaps we can still trust Atlanta’s 94 wRC+ against RHP, even with Soler and Morton’s estimators in the low fours, but what do we do when the outdated numbers tell us to jump the Marlins at +168? Wait for an F5 first of all. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps and an update when I do find an actionable F5 number.
Update 1 EST: This is the only update I'll be posting today, so I'm talking about four of the five games when I say there's significant rain potential today everywhere except Los Angeles. The price on Miami F5 is +154 and worth a small play.
Cardinals @ Cubs
Five more runs in five innings gives Sonny Gray 24 (21 earned) over his last 28.1 with a 23.8 K-BB% that’s very near his 24.6% season rate. Five of eight barrels (9.4%) have gone out over this span with a 4.25 BABIP and 55.3 LOB%. His velocity is also down over this span, but less than half a mph. A 3.70 xERA matches his 3.79 ERA on the season with all other estimators below three and envious pitch modelling grades, several in the 60s and even a 70 grade fastball (24%, -0.8 RV/100), resulting in a 3.00 Bot ERA to go with 108 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ marks. I’m having a bit of trouble with the elite grade on the fastball though, when both the wOBA and xwOBA on it are above .400 with just an 18.3 Whiff%. Statcast brings Gray’s actual 95 point wOBA split down to a 23 point xwOBA split.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.98
Aside from this two blowup starts (seven runs and 10 runs), Shota Imanaga continues to pitch well. Though, while those were his only two outings with more than two runs up to that point, he’s allowed three runs in three of his last five, but no more than that. His 93.8 LOB% until the first blowup has been 64.7% since, rounding out to a somewhat sustainable 77.7% mark on the season. The best part of his game is the 3.8% walk rate that helps generated a 21.1 K-BB%, which, in turn, helps circumvent the 9.2% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed. Eleven of 19 have left the park since that end of May blow up, just three of 10 before the weather warmed and wind started blowing out at Wrigley. Estimators from a 3.34 FIP to a 4.09 dERA are still a bit above the 2.95 ERA, due to six unearned runs, but we’re dealing with another elite fastball here (54.4%, 1.2 RV/100, 66 PB grade). This one makes more sense with a wOBA and xwOBA below .320 and could be particularly effective against the Cardinals (-0.71 wFA/C is second worst), as it was in their first meeting, resulting in seven innings of four-hit ball. An 89 Stuff+ works up to a 103 Pitching+ for Imanaga.
Opp wRC+: 83 (20.1 K%, 94 Road, 111 L7 days)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.24
Rockies @ Angels
Ryan Feltner has a two run lower ERA and 50 point lower wOBA allowed on the road, but his xFIP is nearly a run higher than at home with a nearly three point lower K-BB (11.8%) on the road and 3.2 point dip in ground ball rate to 44.8%. Overall, his 4.99 ERA is about three-quarters of a run above estimators ranging from a 4.07 dERA to a 4.23 xERA. Feltner’s been perfectly average in almost all respects, though LHBs (.355 wOBA, .333 xwOBA) hit him a bit better than RHBs. The 4.46 Bot ERA is a bit higher, but the sinker (13.7%, 39 PB grade) is the only pitch grade outside a 47 to 51 range in addition to 98 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ scores.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 7
B30: 4.24
Since striking out seven of 17 Mariners in his first start of the season, Carson Fulmer has struck out just six of 41 A’s with five walks over his last two. His 12.1 K-BB% in a starting role is actually higher than his season rate of 11.2%. He’s allowed two barrels in starts, but 9.7% overall as well. Sooner or later, Fulmer will have to make a start against a decent offense, but that’s not today. Estimators ranging from a 4.17 xERA to a 4.59 xFIP are average around half a run above his 3.77 ERA (.230 BABIP). Fulmer reaches a 51 PitchingBot grade on his fastball (19.3%), his only grade above 46 on any of the four pitches he throws more than five percent of the time. Fulmer has a 30 point regular split, increased to 93 points by Statcast.
Opp wRC+: 83 (25.3 K%, 81 Road)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 4.44
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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