We've got everything except the Game Two starter for Baltimore below. It's amazing how I can sometimes go through 15 games and struggle to find one or two, but after 11 games here, I'm already on nearly half of them. We finally have Paul Skenes on the daily fantasy main slate, but in a really tough matchup. There's one other top arm on the slate, but he's also in a tough spot. I see Skenes being immensely popular on Monday night without even looking at pricing.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Blue Jays @ Orioles (G1)
Yariel Rodriguez has struck out 25 of his last 82 batters with just eight walks (20.7 K-BB%), allowing just five runs over 22.1 innings on two barrels (4.1%). He’s been rolling and it’s mostly due to the slider (61 PB grade on the year, it’s up to 68, despite reduced usage (19.1%) over this span. Rodriguez has increased usage (52.8%) on his 48 grade fastball, which declines to a 47 PB grade over this stretch. Odd stuff. RHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year with LHBs 100 points less, but only a .231 wOBA since July 1st. It’ll be interesting to see what lineup decisions Baltimoire makes in Game One.
Opp wRC+: 115 (20.6 K%, 114 Road)
DEF: 17.5
B30: 4.69
Zach Eflin may not be what he was last year, but is better than his 4.09 ERA by any metric, dropping as low as a 3.38 xERA. Not asked to lead a rotation in Baltimore, he should be fine and a large upgrade as a middle of the rotation arm. All four pitchers he throws at least 10% of the time still carry PitchingBot grades of 55 or higher, while also being pitches Toronto struggles against (that can be said about everything except changeups though).
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.1 K%)
DEF: 8
B30: 4.05
Update 2:30 EST: A lot to talk about here. Above 90 degrees with a near double digit wind out to left. Swish has Fairchild & DeJesus listed as plate umpires, but doesn't tell us which game. The latter is more hitter friendly, the former closer to neutral, but still slight hitter lean if anything. Rutschman sits, but that adds a RHB (McCann) against Rodriguez's large reverse split. Not the worst thing. Seven RHBs against Eflin's reverse split. Considering TOR has the second worst pen estimators L30 days too, I played BAL o4.5 (-120) here.
Blue Jays @ Orioles (G2)
Bowden Francis last started a major league game in early June, but did start a minor league game, completing five innings and facing 17 batters on July 24th. An 11.6 K-BB% and 9.8% Barrels/BBE over 38.2 major league innings leaves a lot to be desired. That said, all estimators are more than a run below his 5.82 ERA (66.9 LOB%), running as low as a 4.26 SIERA. A 46.6 Z-O-Swing% is worst on the day by nearly four points, but Francis receives impressive 101 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ grades with a Bot ERA below four (3.92).
Opp wRC+: 115 (20.6 K%, 114 Home)
DEF: 17.5
B30: 4.69
Update 3:15 EST: Played F5 o5.5 (+108) here.
Guardians @ Tigers
Tanner Bibee left his last start (also against the Tigers) after just 17 batters (67 pitches) and five innings (one run, four strikeouts) with a knee issue, but receives no extra time here. A 21.0 K-BB%, 6.9% Barrels/BBE and 35.4% hard hit rate produces estimators all within one-fifth of a run of his 3.50 ERA, while his 101 Stuff+ works up to a 106 Pitching+. All PitchingBot grades exceed 50 with only the fastball (51) below 57. Detroit’s lack of LHBs (RHBs .236 wOBA, .276 xwOBA against Bibee this year) is a factor in his favor.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24 K%, 101 Home – is Greene officially on the IL?)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.60
Jack Flaherty was back down to 92.8 mph, his second lowest velocity of the season, last time out and we know he’s had back issues lately. The good news is that he still threw six innings of one run ball (none earned), striking out six of these same Guardians with just three hits. His 17.4 K-BB% in that game was his third lowest of the season. That’s how good he has been. His 2.97 ERA exceeds all non-FIP estimators. So good, in fact, that he may not even pitch this game. I’d certainly consider that he could be traded before this start if playing this game.
Opp wRC+: 96 (19.1 K%, 95 Road)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.23
Cade Povich’s 4.0 K-BB% with 12.4% Barrels/BBE over seven starts registers estimators from a 4.26 SIERA to a 5.32 FIP. The good news is that all are far below his 5.82 ERA, four of his eight barrels have left the park at home (which should be lower than 50% for a LHP in that park) and the barrels account for 37% of his hard contact. None of his non-FIP estimators reach five. However, pitch modeling brings some more bad news. Only the cutter (15.1%) reaches a 50 PB grade (52) with a 4.72 Bot ERA and an 85 Stuff+ working up to only a 94 Pitching+. He’s still got some work to do.
Opp wRC+: 87 (18.7 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.03
Update 3:55 EST: 80 degrees with a light wind in from right center. No Flaherty, still no Greene. No interest.
Yankees @ Phillies
Three straight starts of one run allowed with a 29.4 K-BB% means we can consider Luis Gil’s speed bump a think the rear view mirror. Some mechanical adjustments and revamping a slider that has a 66 PitchingBot grade over this stretch (47 on the season) has made a world of difference. Gil still has an 11.4 BB% and has walked just two batters during this run. His 3.10 ERA is still below estimators ranging from a 3.28 xERA to a 4.04 xFIP with a 2.28 BABIP, but we may not be looking at an even better pitcher than Gil was when he was striking out 30% of batters, but walking over 12% earlier in the season.
Opp wRC+: 106 (118 Home)
DEF: 13.5
B30: 3.61
Six hits in 12 innings against the Twins and Dodgers over his last two starts and seven strikeouts in three straight. What do you need from me? He’s Zach Wheeler. Estimators ranging from a 2.91 xERA to a 3.61 dERA are above his 2.55 ERA (.239 BABIP), but so what. He’s still a rare workhorse and true Ace in this league.
Opp wRC+: 124 (118 Road, 167 L7 days)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.81
I have this one about even and will likely be on the Yankees once A) Gil and officially confirmed and B) there’s a F5 line, although there’s not much difference in pen estimators recently, but the Phillies have upgraded and perhaps the Yankees will have too by Monday night
Update: Gil confirmed. No F5 yet. Playing +130 full game.
Update 4:05 EST: 80 degrees. Near double digit wind out to LC. Stanton back. 1.97% gain on NYY.
Cubs @ Reds
We have another starter here who may not be with his team anymore on by Monday night. On the one hand, Jameson Taillon has come up in trade talks with the Cubs indicating they’re selling. On the other hand, the Cubs went out and added after they said that, so who knows? While he’s an out away from eight straight quality starts, Taillon has struck out just six of his last 49 (7.3 SwStr%) and sat a season low 92 mph in his last start. He’s a control (5.1 BB%) and contact management (36.2% hard hit rate) specialist with enough strikeouts (19.1%), producing estimators (3.68 xERA – 4.24 SIERA) all well above a 2.96 ERA (seven of 40 runs unearned). PitchingBot grades range widely from 43 (sinker) to 65 (sweeper) with an 87 Stuff+ mark working up to a 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 90 (25.6 K%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.27
Carson Spiers has produced a 17.2 K-BB% over five starts (16% overall) with 40% of his barrels on the season coming in a single start against the Tigers. Not concerned about his improvement in a starting role because he also threw at least three innings in every relief appearance. Spiers has a 3.83 ERA that’s within half a run of all estimators on either side. Spiers has two PitchingBot grades below 45, but the other three exceed 60 with an 87 Stuff+ working up to a 102 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24 K%)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 3.57
DFS Notes: Three protected environments with only one a chance of being open on an eight game slate where the prevailing theme is rain and wind, although only one game appears to be seriously threatened and luckily it’s this earliest one. A pair of offenses reach five implied runs (barely) then two more at exactly 4.75, unfortunately, in the most at risk game in Cincinnati. Then we drop to EIGHT offenses at 4.25 runs exactly before the rest of the field below four, creating four distinct tiers, one of which may be wiped out. It also means we have plenty of solid pitching choices tonight, though the bottom half of the board is somewhat bland.
As already mentioned, rain likely with both teams at 4.75 implied runs, tied for third best on the board with half a run separating these two teams and fifth place. The thing is, I don’t think you HAVE to roster players from this game. I entirely avoided it in single entry on both sites without TRYING to avoid it. If the environment doesn’t take these pitchers off the board (because they are high upside matchups) the weather probably does it. Spiers would have otherwise made a decent SP2 choice. Spiers has a 121 point wOBA split, but only two point xwOBA one. Busch (122, .182), Suzuki (133, .221) and Happ (122, .206) are your only projected Cubs batters exceeding a .145 ISO with only Tauchman (107) additionally above a 100 wRC+ against RHP. Paredes (123, .179) does not appear to have a price tag. All four have a 120+ wRC+ L30 days. The Reds have top third of the league pen estimators L30 days (barely) with Cruz throwing 34 pitches on Sunday. Elly (142, .261) is the only Cincy bat of interest. No other projected Red exceeds a 105 wRC+ v RHP this year. Taillon has just an eight point wOBA split, but 38 point xwOBA. Elly (159) is the only Red projected above a 120 wRC+ L30 days. Elly is the biggest stolen base threat on a combo that they should be able to run on. The Cubs have the fourth best pen estimators L30 days with Neris (33) going back to back days.
Update 6:30 EST: Rain risk still present. Bellinger activated, not in lineup. Paredes not in LU. Cruz sits for Reds.
Mariners @ Red Sox
Logan Gilbert has failed to post a quality start just four times in 21 tries, recording seventh inning outs in two-thirds of his outings. Up to a 20.1 K-BB%, estimators from a 3.11 dERA to a 3.44 SIERA are a bit above his 2.72 ERA (.226 BABIP, five unearned runs – four last start). According to Stuff+, these are two of the best pitchers in the league opposing each other, Gilbert with the lesser score of 118 with all PitchingBot grades between 53 and 58.
Opp wRC+: 110 (154 L7 days)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.54
Nick Pivetta has struck out 28 of 72 batters before being bludgeoned at Coors, and we can’t even really blame the park that much anymore, as plenty of mediocre arms have shut down the Rockies at home the last few seasons. He still struck out six of 19, didn’t walk anyone and allowed just one barrel, though a 61.5% hard contact rate. Moving on, his 9.9% Barrels/BBE is muffled by a 23.4 K-BB% with each of the three pitches he throws more than 7.5% of the time exceeding a 55 PB grade. Pivetta’s 134 Stuff+ is seven points ahead of any other pitcher with more than 80 innings pitched. All non-FIP estimators are more than two-thirds of a run below his 4.50 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 96 (28.5 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.84
I have the starting pitching dead even here and while the Mariners improve with the addition of Arozarena, they’re still down Crawford and Julio. The Red Sox should be larger home favorites, but probably aren’t due to Pivetta’s struggles at Coors, which I’m currently viewing as a blip and an opportunity (BOS F5 -115).
DFS Notes: Temperatures around 70 with a light wind out to left-center and rain possible, but not likely. This could be a long one because it includes two of the top and most viable pitchers on the board, but with both teams at 4.25 implied runs and some cheap bats, we can’t completely rule out offense. Despite the extremely positive run environment, Logan Gilbert is my top overall pitcher. There are enough strikeouts and he goes deep into games consistently. That said, Pivetta is the more volatile pitcher I’ve chosen to use on both sites because he’s more than $1K cheaper and not that far behind. With batters from either side no higher than a .292 wOBA or xwOBA against Gilbert, I’d still consider Devers (199 wRC+, .377 ISO v RHP), Duran (151, .274) and maybe Abreu (138, .252) in this run environment, though the latter has PH risk. All + O’Neil exceed a 140 wRC+ L30 days with a 130+ wRC+ at home this season. Raleigh controls the running game well, while the Mariners are barely a top third bullpen by L30 day estimators with Munoz (34) off back to back days. Pivetta being more volatile has a lot to do with his continued issues with LHBs (.350 wOBA, .320 xwOBA) with RHBs below .285. Vosler (152 wRC+, .231 ISO v RHP in a small sample), Polanco (91, .153) and Raleigh (106, .173) are the interesting LH Mariners, while we can consider Robles (157, .179), Haniger (121, .194) and Arozarena (93, .147) as either value plays or part of stacks and I certainly would hedge in multi entry. Raleigh, Arozarena and Robles exceed a 150 wRC+ L30 days. Pivetta does not hold runners well and Boston pen estimators are now worst in the league L30 days, while most of the top of the pen had Sunday off after they all seemed to pitch both Friday and Saturday.
Update 4:20 EST: 2.65% gain on BOS F5
Twins @ Mets
SWR has a 23.4 K% over his last nine starts with an 11.3 SwStr%. He’s allowed 15 barrels over that span (11.2%), but just 47 hard hit balls overall (35.1%). That’s nearly one-third of his hard contact in barrels. SWR’s 3.27 ERA is closer to contact inclusive estimators (3.56 FIP, 3.74 xERA) than contact neutral ones (4.22 xFIP), but he’s down to a 4.00 xFIP over this nine game stretch. SWR works an 87 Stuff+ up to a 102 Pitching+ with the curve (7.8%) and change (21.3%) exceeding 60 PitchingBot grades. I’m beginning to buy in here and I believe this is the first time he faces the team that drafted him.
Opp wRC+: 110 (110 Home & L7 days too)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.71
Jose Quintana is up to a 24.7 K% (10.1 SwStr%) over his last seven starts, but with a 9.6 BB% that limits the gains somewhat. Some of those walks have been unintentional intentional to the likes of Judge, but if he can keep a separation of more than 13 points between strikeouts and walks, it would really help a contact profile with a 42.7% hard hit rate. A 4.41 xFIP is Quintana’s only season estimators not more than half a run above his 4.02 ERA (80.1 LOB%), but the increased strikeout rate would improve on that. Quintana doesn’t have a PItchingBot grade reaching 50 on the season or over this seven start stretch.
Opp wRC+: 119 (20.2 K%, 103 Road, 129 L7 days)
DEF: 2
B30: 4.05
Nearly back to full strength (only Correa still out, I believe) the Minnesota one is one to reckon with for LHPs. My weighted estimators have SWR three-quarters of a run better, in a game where I have the road team as a small favorite F5. Another thing I've been incorporating more is base running, where the Twins have a sizeable advantage too. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: Mid-to-upper 70s with a double digit wind out to left with a minor chance of delay, both teams are also at 4.25 implied runs here. I have no interest in Quintana against this offense and limited interest in SWR in a revenge spot for less than $7K on DK. He’s one of two pitchers below that price point I’d probably even consider. RHBs have a .326 wOBA, but .363 xwOBA against Quintana and the Twins have the roster to line them all up from that side. Margot (119 wRC+, .130 ISO v LHP) is one of my favorite value plays on the board, while Lewis (253, .393) is one of two players I’m looking to jam in everywhere as a top of the board bat at a tough position tonight. Buxton (133, .216), Miranda (86, .123) and Santana (160, .258) would be my favorite stack completers. Mets pen estimators are barely bottom third of the board last 30 days. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA against SWR and under a .310 xwOBA. Lindor (122, .193) and Nimmo (122, .178) would be my favorite Mets. All projected except McNeil (93, .148) exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO v RHP (and also above a 100 at home). McNeil has a 130 L30 days, where only Alvarez (66), Martinez (83) and Bader (69) are below 100. The Twins have middle of the league estimators L30 days.
Update 3:50 EST: Temps now projected closer to 80 degrees. Most pitcher friendly umpire Bill Miller somewhat counters. Torrens in for Alvarez. Kepler in for Miranda (only LHB). 2.44% gain on MIN F5. Added o8.5 (-108).
Rangers @ Cardinals
My concern about a velocity dip for Nathan Eovaldi last time out was quelled when he was back up to his season average (95.6 mph) and struck out 10 of 15 White Sox. That leaves the previous start in Baltimore as the lone blip in four starts of two runs or less in seven innings in his last five. The latest performance drives the K-BB up to 18.5%. A 3.27 xFIP is the only estimator below a 3.31 ERA that’s within half a run of all.
Opp wRC+: 106 (103 Home)
DEF: 20
B30: 3.82
Over nine starts, Andre Pallante’s ground ball rate has only dropped to 59.6% (from above 60% in the bullpen) with an 11.5 K-BB% that’s actually an improvement on his season rate (9.5%). A 3.78 FIP/3.75 xFIP combination is also an improvement on his season rates. Pallante hasn’t altered his pitch usage or velocity in the transition. Just lots of contact on the ground and a 42 point reverse xwOBA split (125 points by actual wOBA).
Opp wRC+: 91 (20.1 K%, 90 Road)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.94
While the xERAs are within 10 points and favor Pallante, I have Eovaldi as the better pitcher by more than one-third of a run, but Pallante keeps the ball on the ground, staying out of trouble and has the better offense behind him at home. Will take a dog price here (+104).
DFS Notes: The highest temperature on the board (near 90) with a light wind out to right-center and very minor rain chances, we again have…can you guess it? A pair of offenses at 4.25 implied runs. I’m calling Eovaldi a top of the board arm here. Right in between Gilbert and Pivetta in terms of price and value as well, he’d be my overall number two. Pallante is probably the only top half of the board arm ( by price) that I wouldn’t consider, due to lack of upside in both him and his opposing lineup. LHBs are on the ground nearly three quarters of the time with RHBs just under half though with RHBs owning the higher wOBA (.368) and xwOBA (.322). The Rangers don’t have a RHB reaching even a 90 wRC+ against RHP this season (among those projected at least). It’s Semian (88 wRC+, .150 ISO) and/or Seager (148. .233) or nobody here. The Cardinals have middling pen estimators L30 days. LHBs have a .297 wOBA, but .333 xwOBA against Eovaldi this year. This is a hitter friendly environment in the heat, so Donovan (121, .149), Contreras (151, .235) and Burleson (153, .227) might have some value. Goldy (82) and Gorman (76) are the two projected Cardinals below a 99 wRC+ at home. The Rangers have middle of the league pen estimators L30 days too.
Update 4:45 EST: Slight temp and wind increase. Semien and Smith swap lineup spots. 1.96% gain on STL ML.
Pirates @ Astros
I guess the most unexpected aspect of Paul Skenes’ season is that he’s faced at least 23 batters in eight straight starts and at least 27 in three of his last 25. They’re letting this stud pitch! Sure, a 29.6 K-BB% with just 6.4% Barrels/BBE generate estimators running only as high as a 2.58 FIP, while 109 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ grades almost feel too low. The best pitchers are the easiest ones to write.
Opp wRC+: 110 (19.1 K%, 123 Home, 127 L7 days)
DEF: -14
B30: 3.25
Conversely, Jack Bloss, from the same draft last year, has not reached 20 batters in any of his three starts. A 25% ground ball rate is how you get six barrels with only 12 hard hit batted balls (29.3%). With a 14.5 K-BB%, that still produces a 5.78 xERA, but perhaps we should focus on pitch modeling more with only three starts. A 91 Stuff+ works up to a 105 Pitching+ (usually the other way around with young phenoms), while PitchingBot thinks the fastball (43.7%, 62 PB grade) is great, but the changeup (8%, 31 PB grade) sucks with everything else around average. It’s probably not as bad as the early results.
Opp wRC+: 83 (65 L7 days)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.64
DFS Notes: A 102 park run factor with the roof closed, the Astros (3.55) and Pirates (3.95) bring up the bottom of the board. I don’t know if this shocks anyone, but I have Skenes as my fourth best arm tonight and a bit over-priced purely due to matchup and environment. I’d still have some exposure in multi-entry because he really hasn’t had a poor game yet, but prefer the three arms I mentioned earlier. We finally get Skenes on a main slate and it’s this matchup. That said, with Pittsburgh also owning top five estimators in the pen last 30 days, I’m off Houston bats. About the best I could say is you’d be absolutely alone if Skenes did finally get blown up. Batters from either side below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA against him. If not necessarily performance, workload kills Bloss for me in a fine spot. Maybe he covers $6.6K in less than 20 batters? LHBs have a .461 wOBA and .371 xwOBA against him in a small sample. Reynolds (142 wRC+, .215 ISO v RHP, 159 wRC+ L30 days) and Cruz (132, .224, 179)? The Astros have middle of the league estimators L30 days with Hader having thrown 9 pitches over the last week.
Update 5:40 EST: Roof confirmed closed. Tichenor hitter friendly though. No McCutchen or Gonzales, Pirates playing Bart & Grandal. Tempted to find a Skenes Under. First five in HOU LU 19% or lower K% v RHP. Only #9 above 23.6%.
Royals @ White Sox
Alec Marsh has a perfectly competent 14.6 K-BB%, but leaves too many pitches over the middle of the plate, resulting in 10.4% Barrels/BBE. While all estimators exceed four, a 4.85 xERA is the only one not more than 0.4 points below his 4.75 ERA. If he can locate more consistently, he might be an average pitcher. RHBs have a .347 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while LHBs have a .347 xwOBA too. A strand rate driven down to 68.7% probably is line for some regression.
Opp wRC+: 72 (24.3 K%, 73 Home, 37 L7 days)
DEF: 20
B30: 3.81
The pitcher with the worst stuff in baseball (52 Stuff+) has been drilled for 10 runs over his last 9.1 innings with as many walks (seven) as strikeouts. He’s allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE, but only a 37.5% hard contact rate. The 7.6 K-BB% is the larger issue. All estimators are below, but within half a run of his 5.25 ERA (67.3 LOB%). Batters from either side are within four points of a .345 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 98 (18.8 K%)
DEF: -18
B30: 4.51
Any competent pitcher should probably be a near two to one favorite over the White Sox at this point. Look at the massive defensive difference here too. I have the better F5 price (-150) the better value.
DFS Notes: Mid-to-upper 70s with a near double digit wind out to left, the Royals are essentially tied for the top spot (5.04) with the White Sox third from the bottom (3.95). Marsh is my SP2 for $7.7K. You could actually pair Pivetta with a higher priced pitcher, but this lets me do what I want on offense, which is not necessarily Royals bats (plural), but one Kansas City bat in particular. Flexen’s splits mentioned above, Witt (167 wRC+, .246 ISO v RHP, 249 wRC+ L30 days) is the top bat at a strong position tonight. So much so that he’s the other player (Lewis being the other) that I’m looking to jam into lineups. Despite Kansas City’s success this season, Perez (119, .207) is really the only other strong KC bat against RHP. Melendez (93, .231) has value here. I might otherwise go underweight on KC bats here. Sal and Witt are the only two projected Royals above a 100 wRC+ on the road. They’re the only two above 80. This is a very tough combo to run on. The White Sox have the third worst pen estimators L30 days though. Maybe Robert (92, .243) plays here? No projected Chicago bat reaches a 90 wRC+ L30 days. The Royals have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days with McArthur and Harvey reaching 20 pitches on Sunday if it matters.
Update 4:55 EST: Massey the new leadoff batter for the Royals.
Braves @ Brewers
Twenty-eight year old Grant Holmes has threw 23.1 innings out of the bullpen for the Braves, but almost all more than one inning and up to 52 pitches and 14 batters faced last time out. They should be able to get four to five innings out of him here. Holmes has an impressive 18 K-BB% with just 4.8% Barrels/BBE that may not hold up in even longer outings, but since he hasn’t started regularly since AA in 2019, we really have nothing to draw on. Holmes had a 22 K-BB% in 41 innings, mostly in relief, at AAA this year.
Opp wRC+: 107 (113 Home – No Yelich)
DEF: -11.5
B30: 2.80
What has gotten into Colin Rea with a 20 K-BB% over his last five outings? Most likely a string of bad offenses (Cubs 2x, Rockies, Nationals Pirates). Up to a still below average 11.1 K-BB% with 8.8% Barrels/BBE, all estimators are more than two-thirds of a run above his 3.60 ERA with a 4.45 Bot ERA joining that group, alongside an 85 Stuff+ that only works up to a 96 Pitching+. LHBs have a .319 wOBA, but .371 xwOBA against Rea.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.5 K%, 88 Road)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.49
DFS Notes: A 96 park run factor with the roof closed will increase to 98 on average with the roof open, which happens frequently with temperatures in the 70s (there’s a hotline on the team website). We’re back to 4.25 implied runs for both teams here. I don’t absolutely hate and even considered Rea here, but just couldn’t pull the trigger. The Braves are not an offense to fear here and have strikeout upside. Maybe you have a stronger stomach than me. LHBs mentioned above, RHBs have a .284 wOBA and .311 xwOBA against him. Kelenic (99 wRC+, .181 ISO v RHP), Ozuna (160, .302) and maybe Rliey (122, .205) here. Olson (80, .141) did homer yesterday, but we’ve been waiting on him all season. Ozuna (154) and Riley (109) are the only two projected exceeding a 100 road wRC+ this year. Rea can be run on. The Brewers have the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days. They did get Williams back, but he threw 24 pitches in his first game back on Sunday. I can’t take Holmes’ massive split in a small sample at face value with LHBs above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA and RHBs below .220. Frelick (97, .072) and Turang (102, .113) are the low men by wRC+ and ISO v RHP with everyone else projected above a .140 ISO otherwise. Ortiz (-2) and Turang (44) the only two below a 95 wRC+ 30 days. Turang (59) the only man below a 110 wRC+ at home. The Braves have the best pen estimators in baseball L30 days.
Update 4:30 EST: Roof open. 76 degrees. Hitter friendly Marquez behind the plate. Biggest boost w/ roof open goes to RH power.
Nationals @ Diamondbacks
Mitchell Parker has allowed four or more runs in five of his last eight starts, including not making it out of the first inning against the Brewers two starts back. Parker’s now 4.34 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. The good news is that he’s sustained his season long 14 K-BB% over this seven start span, stranding just 57.5% of his runners. As his 4.21 Bot ERA somewhat confirms, with three of four pitches grading 50 or better (PB), this might be a league average pitcher, who will probably hit his career high innings pitched in this start, but that idea is fading fast. RHBs now have a 50 point higher xwOBA than wOBA against him, while LHBs have a 55 point higher wOBA than xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 115 (21 K%, 109 Home, 120 L7 days)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.84
Jordan Montgomery struck out just two of the 18 batters he faced in his return from the IL, but also only allowed a single run over five innings on three hits. It’s hard to draw conclusions of an improvement here. Montgomery has a 14.9 K%, allowing just 6.1% Barrels/BBE, but with a 40.6% hard contact rate. All non-FIP estimators exceed four and a half with a 4.72 Bot ERA. RHBs exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 83 (20.3 K%)
DEF: 19
B30: 3.55
DFS Notes: Roof already confirmed closed it’s an even 100 neutral park run factor here. The Diamondbacks are tied with the Royals atop the board (5.01) with the Nationals (3.99) fourth from the bottom. What upside does Montgomery have here, costing less than $7.5K against a below average, but contact prone offense? Maybe? Yepez (199 wRC+, .176 ISO v LHP, 173 wRC+ L30 days) and Thomas (160, .186, 128) are good here. Montgomery is still dominating LHBs at least (below .260). The Diamondbacks have top third of the league estimators L30 days now (they were recently last), but Sewald (41), Puk (34) and Thompson (23) are all working on at least two of the last three days. Nearly everyone threw on Sunday. I’m very interested in three or four right-handed Arizona bats. Marte (204, .352, 181) is my favorite second base bat. Moreno (97, .076, 150) my favorite catcher value. Walker (117, .150, 155), Gurriel (141, .178, 85) and Grichuk (115, .115, 83) should work well here too, thought the latter may very well be on his way out. His .341 wOBA against LHP does match his .336 xwOBA though. The Washington pen estimators are smack middle of the league last 30 days.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
Add comment
Comments