Just a pair of unconfirmed pitchers is probably a blessing at this point in the season and it was that way early enough in the day that I got through all 15 on Thursday night, except for the two we're still waiting on. Below are few games of interest and just one side, but it's my favorite one of the season so far. Take that for what you will. I'm certainly expecting this line to move. THAT I've been right about more often than not, it's the actual ball bounces once the game start that have become unnerving.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Twins @ Tigers
Every time it’s looked like Pablo Lopez was ready to roll, he hits an unscheduled bump in the road. He shut down the Brewers (7 IP – 1 R – 1 BB – 7 K). The changeup has been the problem. It’s still a good pitch (61 PB grade), but not commanded as well as last season, resulting in a negative run value (-1.6 RV/100) and a dip in usage below 20% for the first time in his career. That’s the pitch he has to be more consistent with. All estimators are still more than a run below his 4.86 ERA (66.2 LOB%, home runs on 18 of 25 barrels). The other two pitches he throws more often than the change (sweeper, four-seam) also have PB grades of 58 and 59 respectively and are offerings the Tigers are below average against. Should be good spot for Lopez.
Opp wRC+: 94 (101 Home)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.39
At least four runs in four of Keider Montero’s six outings with just 15 strikeouts (15.6%) over his last four starts. Despite solid contact management (36.1% hard hit rate), his 5.10 xERA is higher than contact neutral estimators, including a matching SIERA and xFIP (4.38). RHBs have a .413 wOBA and .375 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 111
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.20
Update 3:45 EST: Greene out, Lewis back. Expected line movement in favor of Twins.
Guardians @ Phillies
Ben Lively has been an unexpectedly average pitcher this year. All estimators are worse than his 3.57 ERA (82.8 LOB%), but a 3.65 xERA is the only one within half a run. Odd, considering the contact profile seems very average (7.4% Barrels/BBE, 42.8% hard hit rate). It sort of falls apart in pitch modeling with 71 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ scores and all three pitches thrown more than 10% below a 50 PitchingBot grade (4.48 Bot ERA). The fastball (31.5%, 0.2 RV/100, 38 PB grade) could be particularly dangerous here (PHI 0.37 wFA/C is fourth best).
Opp wRC+: 106 (118 Home)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.78
Cristopher Sanchez has hit just a pair of speed bumps over his last 11 starts, allowing two runs or less nine times. A 58.1 GB% and 5.1% Barrels/BBE combined with a 13.7 K-BB% run non-FIP estimators from a 3.16 xFIP to a 3.60 xERA. Somehow, just three of 17 barrels have exited the park, explaining the 2.97 ERA and 2.64 FIP. Sanchez has held LHBs below a .240 wOBA and xwOBA this year (RHBs over 65 points higher) and it’s very difficult for Cleveland to divest itself of LHBs in their lineup. There will likely be two or three.
Opp wRC+: 117 (98 Road)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.88
Update 3:50 EST: No Naylor, Josh that is.
Reds @ Rays
Four straight starts without one of quality for Nick Lodolo (19 IP – 14 R – 10.3 K-BB%). He has a 3.51 ERA without an estimators above 3.89 (FIP), but it somehow seems worse (well, it has been over the last month). He has almost no split like no other pitcher I’ve seen. Batters from both sides between a .292 and .295 wOBA and xwOBA against Lodolo this year.
Opp wRC+: 114 (24.8 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.49
This hasn’t really been the Shane Baz we’ve been hoping to see. Walking five Yankees last time out with a single strikeout kills his K-BB after three starts (7.9%). He allowed all five barrels this year in that start before (also against the Yankees) and has a 50% hard hit rate or higher in each start with a sub-9 SwStr% in two of three. A 113 Stuff+ mark makes it seem that he’s not much off, but it’s way below his 2021 debut (144) with a 97 Pitching+ matching 2022’s small sample. Talent is still there, but there’s some work to do. Reds as good a spot to start as any though.
Opp wRC+: 93 (25.5 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.97
Update 4:15 EST: Hitter friendly Moscoso behind the plate.
Padres @ Orioles
One start at AAA and Adam Mazur is back. He set a season/career high with six strikeouts before being sent down to finally give him more strikeouts than walks (1.4 K-BB%), though he also allowed three barrels. His 99 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ marks aren’t terrible, but the 43 grade fastball (38.2%, -3.4 RV/100) is going to be a problem here (BAL 0.3 wFA/C Is seventh best). LHBs exceed a .385 wOBA and xwOBA against Mazur.
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.6 K%, 115 Home)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.71
A 23.7 K-BB% over his last four starts and 19.6% on the season, Grayson Rodriguez is getting closer and closer. He’s allowed 8.1% Barrels/BBE, but eight of 23 have come in two starts. All estimators below, but within a third of a run of his 3.83 ERA, while 120 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ marks confirm the potential. Even better, Gray-Rod has a 2.88 Bot ERA with all pitch grades exceeding 55. RHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while LHBs are below .270. San Diego has a very static, balanced lineup that probably won’t change though.
Opp wRC+: 116 (18.1 K%)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.79
DFS Notes: A 12 game slate is about as large as it gets these days (thankfully) and is going to take a while to get through. Four protected environments, which we’ll go through quickly:
Toronto – generally open in decent weather, becoming harder to get confirmation through Twitter
Houston – always closed during summer
Milwaukee – could go either way, call the hotline on the website this afternoon
Arizona – already posted on website, closed roof for the entire series
No weather issues today and fairly minimal effects overall. The Orioles are the only offense to clear five implied runs with eight more above four and a half, nine under four implied runs too. We start in Baltimore with temps in the mid-80s and a light breeze in from right. Rodriguez is sufficiently priced against a contact prone offense (Arraez 2.6 K% v RHP). He’s probably still a top five overall arm tonight, on a tough pitching board. I have no interest in San Diego bats (though we mentioned his issues with RHBs) because you can’t run on him, Baltimore buries right-handed power. Baltimore has a very middling pen, but every top guy threw last night (Kimbrel 28) with Webb (34) and Perez (30) two in a row. The biggest Baltimore problem is affordability. Adley (91), Mountcastle (102) and Mullins (102) are the only three projected below a 127 wRC+ v RHP this year, Adley also the only one below a .160 ISO. Mountcastle and his 54 wRC+ L30 days is probably the only batter I’m looking to avoid here. The San Diego bullpen cracks the top third of the league via L30 day estimators and is well rested.
Update 4:35 EST: Kjerstad in for Mullins. Increases offensive potential. Playing BAL o4.5 (-130). Considered BAL -182 F5.
Rangers @ Blue Jays
Andrew Heaney has allowed just seven runs (six earned) over his last 27.1 innings. His 16.8 K-BB% is a point below his career rate, but so is 7.5% Barrels/BBE. Even with 14 of 22 barrels leaving the park, all estimators sit between a 3.92 SIERA and 4.61 dERA (the latter is nearly half a run above all other estimators). Just an 82 Stuff+ score works up to a 99 Pitching+, while the fastball (52.3%, 0.3 RV/100) has been a weapon upstairs (57 PB grade) and one the Blue Jays don’t hit (-0.39 wFA/C is sixth worst).
Opp wRC+: 86 (18.9 K%)
DEF: 18
B30: 3.96
Both pitchers have great fastballs that the opposing offense has been surprisingly putrid against, but Yusei Kikuchi’s is better (48.9%, -0.2 RV/100, 70 PB grade) and the Rangers are worse (-0.42 wFA/C is fifth worse). With at least four runs in seven of his last 11 starts, something is wrong and you can sort of see it in the discrepancy between the fastball run value and PitchingBot grade. Kikuchi has a 20.7 K-BB% over these 11 starts (20.5% season), but with 20 of his 32 barrels (12.8%) and a 46.8% hard hit rate. It’s not that so many of those barrels have left the park (12), but a .368 BABIP and 64.4 LOB% haven’t helped. He’s also throwing a 37 grade changeup 11.1% of the time that’s a negative by run value too (-0.4 RV/100). There hasn’t been much change in fastball velocity or break. It may be maddening, but he should be able to figure this out and this may be the struggling lineup to do that against. (No, I did not know they had a 100 wRC+ against LHP when writing the preceding sentence.)
Opp wRC+: 100 (91 Road, 89 since break)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.48
A pair of offenses that have under-performed against one pitcher who has been better than the results (forgot to mention his 4.54 ERA comes without a single estimators above four) and one league average one. The thing sealing in this F5 under (-128) is two of the best defenses in the league. And the thing keeping it from being a full game under is that you can’t trust these bullpens, especially Toronto’s, while Texas’s has been overworked in a tighter series than they expected with the White Sox. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: A 98 park run factor increases to 102 on average with the roof open (it has been frequently). Both the Blue Jays (4.1) and Rangers (3.9) are bottom half teams tonight. As volatile as he’s been, I think Kikuchi has the potential to be one of the top values on the board and potentially a top five arm tonight, though it’s a big risk. I’m not crazy about attacking Heaney here. He’s been decent against RHBs (.293 wOBA, .314 xwOBA). You can run on him and the Rangers have a middle-bottom of the board bullpen. Maybe Springer (91 wRC+, .151 ISO, 191 wRC+ L30 days) and Vlad (139, .190, 184). No other projected RHB exceeds an 85 wRC+ L30 days. Wyatt Langford (160, .271, 99) is the most interesting Texas bat with RHBs owning a .328 wOBA, but .311 xwOBA against Kikuchi this year. Perhaps Semien (144, .188, 111) too. Garcia (.190) and Grossman (.179) are the only other projected Rangers exceeding a .136 ISO v LHP. Toronto has the worst bullpen estimators in baseball L30 days.
Braves @ Mets
Charlie Morton appears to not be as cooked as I thought him to be this season. Following last year’s decline to league average pitcher (14.0 K-BB%, 38.8% hard contact rate), he’s avoided further decline (14.5 K-BB%, 38.5% hard contact rate), though Barrels/BBE are up from 7.8% to 9.1%. Still, his 3.92 ERA is below, but within a quarter run of all estimators. That’s because he’s pretty much forsaken a below average fastball (27.7%, -1.5 RV/100, 40 PB grade) that he certainly doesn’t want to test against the Mets (0.48 wFA/C is second best) in favor of even more curveballs (41.2%, 1 RV/100, 60 PB grade). Whatever works.
Opp wRC+: 111 (112 Home, 131 since break)
DEF: -3
B30: 2.94
It’s been a long road back for a pitcher who was only supposed to miss the first quarter of the season. Kodai Senga comes off an impressive 18.0 K-BB% in his first year of major league competition with projections fairly around a quarter run below four for the remaining one-third of this season. Three AAA starts were far from impressive in terms of results (0.0 K-BB%). The velocity was down 0.8 mph from last season, but the 14.6 SwStr% was impressive and the Mets maintain that the priority was health above all else.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.8 K%, 88 Road, 81 since break)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.27
DFS Notes: Low 80s with a double digit wind blowing in from somewhere around the left-field pole. It could switch to across the field or in from left fairly easily, two large distinctions. Both teams are below four runs, the Mets 3.97 and Braves 3.53, fifth from the bottom. Senga is probably not a good investment for the price first game back. He’s shown nothing in his rehab starts to suggest he’s in top form yet. On the other side, he’s hard to run on and Aside from Riley (142 wRC+ L30 days), D’arnaud (131) and Ozuna (150) nobody else in this lineup is hitting. The Mets do have bottom third pen estimators last 30 days. No interest in Charlie Morton for $8.5K or more in a tough spot. Lindor (126 wRC+, .199 ISO v RHP, 184 wRC+ L30 days) is matchup proof right now, but despite everyone except the red hot McNeil (147 wRC+ L30 days) being above a 100 wRC+ and .160 ISO v RHP this year and everyone except Martinez (74) exceeding a 100 wRC+ L30 days, I’m not on Mets bats in a pitcher friendly park against a pitcher they can’t run on and the best bullpen estimators in baseball L30 days.
Yankees @ Red Sox
Nestor Cortes has some well-known Home/Road issues (13.2 K-BB% on road since last year), but he’s just been overall bad over his last five starts (26 IP, 18 ER). His 16.7 K-BB% over this span is just 1.2 points below his season rate, but Cortes has also allowed 14.8% Barrels/BBE over this span (12 of his 32). His fastball did not generate a single whiff against the Rays last time out. His 3.99 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators aside from a 4.59 dERA. All PitchingBot grades between 49 and 56.
Opp wRC+: 100 (28.8 K%, 98 Home, 130 since break)
DEF: 16
B30: 3.76
Conversely, Brayan Bello is coming off a quality start on the road against the Dodgers (three runs, but still), his third in his last four starts with a 22.3 K-BB% over this stretch (13.8% season). Everything appears to be working, but he hadn’t gotten a handle on those barrels (12 last seven starts), while LHBs have a .370 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against him. Contact neutral estimators are a run and a half below his 5.27 ERA with contact inclusive ones nearly a run higher. Still, each of the .325 BABIP, 69.1 LOB% and 20.5 HR/FB (15 of 24 barrels) are likely to regress.
Opp wRC+: 122 (115 Road, 133 since break)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.43
In maybe the top run environment outside Coors, this looks like an F5 and/or maybe full game over. I have F5 (4.5 -125) rates slightly higher. Cortes has some ugly L30 day estimators (4.31 SIERA/4.63 xFIP) with Bello’s contact inclusive estimators above four and a half on the season. An average offense against a two man wrecking crew (Severino wasn’t wrong) with one poor defense.
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a light breeze in from left-center, the Yankees are third from the top (4.87) with the Red Sox (4.63) not too far behind. You already know I like offense here, so pitchers are not viable for me, but they’re not the worst and do cost less than $7.5K on at least one site tonight. Cortes has shut down LHBs, but RHBs have a .329 wOBA and .306 xwOBA against him, making O’Neill (209 wRC+, .378 ISO v LHP) and Refsnyder (155, .179) very viable here. I think Duran (99, .090) needs to be considered to on account of his lineup spot and 163 wRC+ L30 days. The Yankees have middling pen estimators L30 days. Mentioned above, Bello’s issues with LHBs. That’s come down slightly in July, but still above .330. I think left-handed Yankees are the play tonight. You can’t run on Bello, but the Red Sox have the second worst pen estimators on the board L30 days. Rice (117 wRC+, .257 ISO v RHP, 104 wRC+ L30 days), Wells (113, .191, 179) and Soto (197, .312, 216) are all in my single entry lineup on DK. Judge (197, .351, 193) priced out, but Grisham (94, .204, 90) the punt value play on this board.
Update 4:55 EST: Yankees get a 6th LHB w/ Cabrera in for LeMahieu. Verdugo and Rice swap spots in the order though, making the former the potentially better value now.
Cubs @ Royals
This seems to be an ideal place to save some time and space. Kyle Hendricks has estimators all more than a run below his 6.69 ERA, non-FIP more than a run and a half. He has a very large split (LHBs .390 wOBA, .373 xwOBA) and throws a terrible fastball (12.8%, -2.6 RV/100, 37 PB grade), but better sinker (35.5%, -2.4 RV/100, 57 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 98 (18.9 K%, 110 Home, 123 since break)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.06
Brady Singer has estimators all more than half a run higher than his 3.00 ERA (82.4 LOB%), including a 4.81 xERA (9.1% Barrels/BBE), his only one above four. He has a very large split (LHBs .386 wOBA, .392 xwOBA) and throws a terrible fastball (13.2%, -1.3 RV/100, 37 PB grade), but better sinker (38.8%, 1 RV/100, 52 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 96 (24.2 K%, 97 Road, 54 since break)
DEF: 17.5
B30: 3.54
DFS Notes: Upper 80s with a near double digit win blowing across the field. Again, a slight change in direction could make this game play differently. This appears to be the hottest temperature on the board. As such, the Royals (4.89) are second from the top, but the Cubs (4.11) are the offense I’m a bit more interested in. That said, if you don’t agree with me, the Chicago lineup does offer enough upside for Singer to be viable. Hendricks might be one of the worst values on the board. Bobby Witt (171 wRC+, .253 ISO v RHP, 262 wRC+ L30 days) is one of the top bats on this board and top SS if you can afford him. We talked about LHBs, but RHBs still exceed a .320 wOBA, xwOBA against Hendricks as well. The front five (Frazier, Pasquatch, Perez and Massey) all look good here. In fact, Garcia (71, .090) appears to be the only poor value here. Very easy combo to run on, but the Cubs’ bullpen has improved all the way to third best estimators L30 days. With how badly LHBs have smashed Singer, it’s surprising he’s had any success at all. Busch (125, .187, 131) and Happ (125, .212, 176) are very strong plays here and in both my single entry lineups. Singer is tough to run on and the Royals do have top third pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:35 EST: KCR four LHBs, CHC adds Mastrobuoni for Morel to make five.
Dodgers @ Astros
Gavin Stone finished up his first half with eight runs over 7.2 innings, striking out just six of his last 40 batters. He returned to throw five innings of one run ball against the Red Sox a week ago, but with just three strikeouts. Stone success is built more upon his contact profile (4.8% Barrels/BBE, 34% hard contact rate) than his 12.1 K-BB%. Even then, his 3.78 xERA is half a run above that ERA with other non-FIP estimators even higher. Pitch modeling paints a somewhat similar picture, portraying Stone as an average pitcher with PitchingBot grades between 47 and 56 on everything he throws more than five percent of the time with a 4.17 Bot ERA and a 97 Stuff+ mark working up to a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 109 (19.3 K%, 122 Home)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 4.60
Framber Valdez is keeping the ball on the ground at an extremely high rate (60.5%), resulting in just 4.7% Barrels/BBE, despite a 48.3% hard contact rate and average exit velocity above 91 mph, while his K-BB has decline to a below average 12.2% with a 90.3 Z-Contact%. The ground ball rate keeps estimators within a one-third of a run of his 3.63 ERA and a 110 Stuff+ is actually a career high (disregarding 2020).
Opp wRC+: 122 (18.9 K%, 115 Road, 122 since break)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.70
DFS Notes: A 102 park run factor with the roof closed, the Dodgers (4.1) are bottom half of the board with the Astros (4.4) right in the middle. I’m not touching either of these pitchers against theses offenses. I’m lukewarm on Houston bats. Batters from either side between a .290 and .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Stone. He’s tough to run on, but the Dodgers have the third best pen estimators L30 days in addition to just about everybody being heavily used this week. Alvarez (148 wRC+, .250 ISO v RHP, 223 wRC+ L30 days) and Altuve (125, .149, 129) are the top bats here. LHBs have a .350 wOBA against Framber this year with RHBs more than 50 points lower, though Statcast reverses that to make RHBs 15 points higher. Ohtani (134, .196, 179), Smith (170, .289, 134) and Teoscar (160, .317, 140) are favorites here. This is a combo that can be run on, while the Astros are barely inside the top third last 30 days.
Mariners @ White Sox
Eigth straight quality starts for George Kirby, only one with more than two runs. A 21.9 K-BB% over this span actually reduced his season rate to 22.1%. Add to this a 34.7% hard contact rate and Kirby doesn’t even really need the help of his home park. However, just 11 of 28 barrels have turned into home runs, but disregarding the 2.74 FIP, all other estimators are within one-tenth of a run of his 3.20 ERA. All PitchingBot grades 54 or better, including the sinker and slider, where the White Sox are easily the worst offense in the league against the latter (-1.38 wSL/C). Kirby also registers 108 Stuff+ and 107 Pithing+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 73 (24.1 K%, 74 Home, 36 since break)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.88
A -3.0 K-BB% for Drew Thorpe’s first three starts has improved all the way to 10.0% over his last four without a single game effort reaching 15%. He’s trying to live on his changeup (35%, 2.5 RV/100, 54 PB grade) because everything else is below average, resulting in a 5.38 Bot ERA, 83 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+. Thorpe has been an elite contact manager so far (4.4% Barrels/BBE, 32.7% hard hit rate), resulting in a 3.60 xERA that’s still well above his 3.03 ERA with all contact neutral estimators exceeding five.
Opp wRC+: 92 (28.6 K%, 96 Road, 58 since break)
DEF: -22
B30: 4.19
The Mariners F5 (-145) are my largest play of the year to this point. I thought it was a misprint at fist. I know, the offense, but even a watered down poor offense is still better than Chicago’s and the pitching gap is massive. I feel good if I get a run here, two is a party and the defense alone might give them that.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a near double digit wind in from left-center. The Mariners are middle of the board (4.15) with the White Sox (3.35) third from the bottom. I’m sure nobody will be surprised that Kirby is my top pitcher tonight, but he’ll likely be the top pitcher for a lot of players tonight because he’s also probably one of the better values. It’s all just looking so good that he probably has a five run first. Thorpe is tough to get a read on. I guess he’s okay as would anyone be against the Mariners for $6.6K. Robles (136 wRC+, .133 ISO v RHP, 189 wRC+ since joining the team) is still a nice value punt here. I have no projected Arozarena. LHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Thorpe with RHBs having a 100 point higher xwOBA than wOBA. The Whites Sox have dropped to sixth worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:25 EST: Just a 2.36% gain on SEA F5. Smaller than I expected. Arozarena not there yet.
Marlins @ Brewers
One of his better command starts last time out and Trevor Rogers still couldn’t get out of the fifth. Just an 8.4 K-BB% with 8.5% Barrels/BBE (43.3% hard hit rate) keeps all estimators within one-quarter run of his 4.59 ERA. RHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA. The slider has been a disaster (20.6%, -1.9 RV/100, 40 PB grade) and a poor choice against the Brewers (0.42 wSL/C is third best).
Opp wRC+: 104 (10.6 K-BB%, 114 Home)
DEF: -13
B30: 2.89 (Puk traded)
Despite being erratic, Freddy Peralta has had his moments, like his six shutout innings on two hits with eight strikeouts against the Twins last time out. His walk rate (8.4%) and Barrels/BBE (8.5%) meet on the high side, somewhat countering what his 30.4 K% provides. Peralta’s 3.88 ERA is a bit above estimators ranging from a 3.23 dERA to a 3.55 FIP and xERA. His 105 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+ scores are in line with his career marks.
Opp wRC+: 84 (72 Road, 117 since break)
DEF: 19
B30: 4.24
DFS Notes: A 96 run factor with the roof closed increases to 98 on average with it open. The Brewers (4.53) are upper half of the board, the Marlins (2.97) bring up the bottom. If something were to happen to Kirby, Peralta is a very close second and may be the only thing keeping Kirby’s popularity from soaring tonight. No interest in Rogers. We can pretty safely omit Marlins tonight, although if you’re daring, Peralta has had some blowups and they’ve been hitting the ball better lately, while the Brewers have the fifth worst pen estimators L30 days. Ortiz (113 wRC+, .176 ISO v RHP) seems like the value play here, if atop the lineup, but he has just a -4 wRC+ L30 days. Conteras (142, .132) looks good here as well. Rogers can be run on. The Marlins have the second best pen estimators L30 days, but the top has been heavily worked this week and Puk is gone.
Update 5:50 EST: Roof open, 76 degrees. The slumping Ortiz dropped in the order. Chourio (61, .061, 154 wRC+ L30 days) now leadoff and the much better value.
Nationals @ Cardinals
Mackenzie Gore has hit a wall, allowing 18 runs over his last 20.2 innings, striking out just 20 of 99 batters with 16 walks. He’s averaged 95.9 mph on his fastball over his last four starts (96.5 mph before that) and it’s declined further with each start. His Stuff+ has actually increased (115), along with his Pitching+ (104), over this span and is higher than Gray’s, so who knows? A 4.28 dERA is Gore’s only estimator now below his 4.20 ERA on the season with only his 4.03 xERA additionally above four. He still has a 17.2 K-BB% and solid contact profile (6.8% Barrels/BBE, 36.7% hard hit rate), but is tough to trust right now.
Opp wRC+: 78 (19.9 K%, 6.8 HR/FB, 103 Home)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 3.84
Sonny Gray appears to have hit a wall as well (19 runs, 16 earned in 23.1 innings), but has done so with a 25.5 K-BB% that’s right on his season rate (25.1%) and a reasonable 8.5% Barrels/BBE (four in Atlanta last time out). Five of the six barrels have gone out with a .409 BABIP and 57.1 LOB% over this span. His velocity is also down over this span, but less than half a mph. I’m far less concerned here, especially at just 106.2 innings. A 3.55 xERA matches his 3.54 ERA with all other estimators below three and envious pitch modelling grades, several in the 60s and even a 71 grade fastball (23.7%, -0.4 RV/100), resulting in a 2.90 Bot ERA to go with 108 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 95 (89 Road)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.78
DFS Notes: Low 80s with a light wind in from right. The Cardinals (4.24) are middle of the board with the Nationals (3.26) second from the bottom. Gray is my third favorite arm tonight, but facing a lower strikeout offense than the other two arms. LHBs actually have a .338 wOBA and .312 xwOBA against him this year, which makes Abrams (119 wRC+, .221 ISO v RHP) a sneaky play here, but at a strong position. The Cardinals have middle of the board estimators L30 days Contreras (164, .244) is one of two projected St Louis bats exceeding a 100 wRC+ against LHP this year with Winn (100, .174) the only other one above a .150 ISO, Arenado (.144) the only other one above .120. However, Goldy & Winn (the second and third best wRC+ v LHP ironically) are the only pair below a 99 wRC+ L30 days and RHBs have a .313 wOBA, .315 xwOBA against Gore this year. An easy combo to run on, Nationals pen estimators are just outside the bottom third last 30 days.
Athletics @ Angels
Paul Blackburn returns from a foot injury, suffered in early May, to showcase himself just before the trade deadline. A competent, but below average 12.2 K-BB% and average contact profile through seven starts produced estimators ranging from a 3.88 xFIP to a 4.62 xERA. RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, slightly problematic against an Angels’ lineup that leans more towards that side. Blackburn throws six different pitches at least 10% of the time, the cutter (19.9%) and changeup (19.1%) grading above 55 (PitchingBot) and also matching up well with LAA weaknesses.
Opp wRC+: 89 (75 since break)
DEF: -16.5
B30: 3.79
Carson Fulmer struck out seven of 17 Mariners through 4.2 no hit innings in his first start of the season and then went the same distance, striking out just three of 20 A’s with a pair of walks and three runs in his second. With estimators ranging from a 4.07 SIERA to a 4.37 xFIP pitching mostly in relief, I wouldn’t expect improvement upon transitioning to the rotation. Pitch modeling grades (5.00 Bot ERA, 96 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+) are slightly subpar as well.
Opp wRC+: 101 (90 Road, 162 since break)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.33
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind out to center, both offenses are at 4.75 implied runs, we’re obviously looking at offense here. The A’s have been scorching the ball and Lawrence Butler (143 wRC+, .249 ISO v RHP, 267 wRC+ L30 days) is the head…scorcher? Brent Rooker (165, .259, 244) and Seth Brown (90, .162, 213) have been breathing fire too. Roocker (159 wRC+) and Butler (136) are easily the top two road bats in the projected lineup. The Angels have the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days with Joyce hung out for 37 pitches last night. O’Hoppe (133, .186) is really the only quality bat here, though Rengifo (110, .117) is viable too at a weak 3B position. Both are within three points of a 140 wRC+ L30 days. Oakland pen estimators have improved to middling last 30 days, but Miller is out.
Update 6:25 EST: Hitter friendly Wegner behind the plate.
Pirates @ Diamondbacks
Luis L. Ortiz has allowed two runs over 24.2 innings as a starter, last seen throwing seven shutout innings on three hits at the Phillies, but with just two strikeouts and walks. Including the two relief innings since his first start, Ortiz has posted a 20.4 K-BB%, exceeding all expectations and his bullpen work this season by quite a bit. The caveat to the rule that pitchers are unlikely to improve when going from relieving to starting. He has a 13 SwStr% over this span (9.9% season) and has allowed just two barrels with a 30.6% hard hit rate. A good part of the reason may be that there’s been absolutely no velocity drop off (95.9 mph average while starting and relieving). He’s thrown more four-seamers and fewer sinkers since transitioning. Ortiz has a 3.34 SIERA and 3.14 xFIP over the last 30 days. His 102 Stuff+ is a slight decline from his bullpen work, but a 104 Pitching+ is improvement.
Opp wRC+: 83 (88 Road)
DEF: 19
B30: 3.80
Zac Gallen was throwing with increased velocity his first couple starts back from the IL with poor results, but dropped back down to his season velocity average over his last two starts. The Blue Jays torched him in the first of those, but he shut out the Cubs over five innings last time out. However, he walked six of 24 batters with just four strikeouts. His 16.5 K-BB% and 6.5% Barrels/BBE would be great for most pitchers, but the former is a step back for him and the latter comes with a 47.2% hard hit rate, producing a 4.26 xERA, his only estimator more than one-quarter of a run above his 3.64 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 83 (89 Road)
DEF: 19
B30: 3.82
DFS Notes: A perfectly even 100 park run factor with the roof closed, he Diamondbacks are fourth from the top (4.8) with the Pirates (3.7) sixth from the bottom. I’m scared off Gallen here. Is he even confirmed yet? Puk improves an Arizona pen with middling estimators L30 days. Pittsburgh may be good for a stack in mult-entry in case Gallen is still injured or off, but not much more than that. Ortiz is interesting for $7.3K, despite facing a contact prone offense. He doesn’t get me to the offense I want tonight though. He and the Pittsburgh pen (fourth best estimators L30 days) are enough reason for me to be mostly off Diamondbacks tonight. Marte (117 wRC+, .172 ISO v RHP, 195 wRC+ L30 days) might be the exception.
Rockies @ Giants
I’m old enough to remember when Kyle Freeland’s March velocity spike encouraged some optimism about his season. He then got destroyed on opening day in Arizona and then in Chicago with two more poor starts against Arizona again and lastly in Toronto since hitting the IL. Well, he’s been back for five starts now with the same velocity bump and a 15 K-BB%, allowing nine runs (seven earned) over 32.1 innings. He hasn’t faced good offenses and has allowed 9.4% Barrels/BBE since returning, but three starts at Coors and another in Cincinnati are something. Freeland’s 82 Stuff+ since returning is the same as his pre-IL mark. His 100 Pitching+ is an improvement at least. He has a 3.36 FIP and 3.90 xFIP since returning.
Opp wRC+: 114 (107 Home, 84 since break)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.00
Kyle Harrison has just two quality starts over his last nine and one was a three run affair (four actually, but only three earned). He has a 4.50 ERA and just 9.9 K-BB% over that span, just 12.3% on the season. Estimators ranging from a 4.09 FIP to a 4.81 xERA and dERA float above his 3.86 ERA with just 10 of 27 barrels leaving the yard, three of 13 at home. That’s been his play. Hope the park saves his ass. No PitchingBot grades exceeding 50 with 90 Stuff+ and 92 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 87 (25.4 K%, 84 Road)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.55
DFS Notes: Doesn’t even get to 60 degrees here, yet the Giants sit middle of the board (4.52) with the Rockies fourth from the bottom. I don’t think Harrison has enough upside here. He’s adequately priced. Freeland, on the other, hand has been interesting since returning from the IL and I’m willing to take a shot here in an SP2 spot for $5.5K. That said, I’d certainly hedge with a couple of San Francisco stacks. Ramos (268 wRC+, .410 ISO v LHP) and Fitzgerald (164, .259) are certainly bats to look at here. Villar (158, .182) is really cheap. The Rockies have a bottom third of the league pen last 30 days. No interest in road Colorado bats under these conditions, though Brenton Doyle (118, .172) has a 202 wRC+ L30 days Giants pen estimators L30 days are just outside the top third of the league. Both Rogers boys (35 pitches each) have worked two of the last three.
Update 6:25 EST: Blackmon out.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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