No daily fantasy notes with just a pair of night games. You probably don't want them after how poorly Wednesday has gone. We have plenty of small sample sizes and pitchers returning from long IL stints. I've only found one game of interest so far and it's one of the biggest dogs on the board against a legend who may be reaching the end of the line.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Padres @ Nationals
Back to back one-hit, double digit strikeout efforts for Dylan Cease. Now up to a 24.9 K-BB%, the 11.1% Barrels/BBE matter a bit less. Even his xERA (3.28), the worst of his estimators, is nearly a half run below Cease’s 3.76 ERA. The season strand rate is at 69.2%. It’s the slider (41.5%, 1.3 RV/100, 61 PB grade) that Cease may want to emphasize even more against the Nationals (-0.44 SL/C is eight worst).
Opp wRC+: 96 (20.9 K%)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.71
Three hits over six innings with six strikeouts and no walks against the Reds. That doesn’t sound like the open for any recent Patrick Corbin start, but he did it by leaning into his new cutter (51.9%). To illustrate how rare that is, he’s still only thrown it 17.9% of the time this year. The metrics actually suggest it’s a pretty good pitch (-0.3 RV/100, 57 PB grade) and one the Padres don’t hit (-0.49 wFC/C is seven worst). If he tries to throw more sliders (31.6%, 0.5 RV/100, 45 PB grade), he deserves what he gets (0.7 wSL/C is by far the best in baseball). The cutter still has a long way to go to bring Corbin’s 76 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ marks up to par. A 4.28 xFIP is his only estimator below four and a half, while 9.3% Barrels/BBE and a 47.8% hard hit rate projects a 6.05 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 99 (17.5 K%)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 3.81
Orioles @ Marlins
Four straight quality starts. Fifteen straight with at least six innings pitched, but just three starts all season where Corbin Burnes has exceed six strikeouts and one of them was in his Orioles’ debut. The 17.6 K-BB% is still firmly above average, though the Orioles would probably tell you they expected better. You can’t argue with a 49.7 GB% and 31.1% hard contact rate. Even still, there’s a large gap between his 2.38 ERA and best estimator (3.09 dERA). The 83.3 LOB% will eventually regress, even if it’s not necessarily this year. None of the pitches Burnes throws more than 7.5% of the time is a traditional fastball and all grade above average, but it’s his secondaries (slider, curveball) that the Marlins struggle more against than cutters, though they’re not really strong anywhere. RHBs have been nearly league average (.298 wOBA, .300 xwOBA) against Burnes this year.
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.61
Roddery Munoz has allowed one run in 11 innings against the Mets, 34 runs (31 earned) in 45 innings against all other teams. He’s allowed multiple barrels (12.6%) in eight of 11 outings. With just a 7.3 K-BB%, his 5.14 ERA is a perfect match for a 5.14 SIERA. And that’s the best of his estimators. Munoz has a cutter (24.5%, 1.4 RV/100) and slider (18.1%, 0.3 RV/100) that have positive run values, but PitchingBot grades below 40. That will be tested here, as Baltimore is a top six offense against both pitches.
Opp wRC+: 117 (20.5 K%, 119 Road)
DEF: -13
B30: 2.90
Update 12:05 EST: Just posted a picture of Marlins pen usage on Twitter and played o4.5 (-120) for BAL team total.
Tigers @ Guardians
Not confirmed, but expected to play some part in the proceedings here is Kenta Maeda, recently banished to the bullpen with a 7.07 ERA and estimators that aren’t nearly that bad, but still all above four and a half. He has a nearly respectable 10.5 K-BB%, but with 9.1% Barrels/BBE and just a 36.4 GB%. One thing he needs to do is stop throwing the fastball (25%, -3.7 RV/100, 37 PB grade), especially against teams like the Guardians (0.06 wFA/C is top half of the league).
Opp wRC+: 99 (19 K%, 112 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.14
Gavin Williams has struck out just 14 of 83 batters with eight walks and a 44.1% hard contact rate. He’s throwing harder than last year, but his Stuff+ (95) and Pitching+ (97) are down five and three points respectively with exactly a half run increase in Bot ERA (4.48). No home runs yet, but all non-FIP estimators exceed is 4.50 ERA. Statcast believes he’s throwing a cutter instead of a slider this year.
Opp wRC+: 95 (88 Road)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.74
White Sox @ Rangers
You can manipulate the numbers to say almost anything you want. Jonathan Cannon has allowed 20 runs (17 earned) over his last 24.2 innings. He’s gone six innings in three straight (nine runs in 18 innings), but settled down after a rough first inning in Kansas City last time out. He’s worked enough that we’re comfortable saying he’s pitched better than his 4.58 ERA (66 LOB%). About half a run better (3.91 FIP – 4.22 SIERA). All four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time have either 52 or 54 PitchingBot grades. Cannon does have a 100 point real (wOBA) and 60 point Stacast (xwOBA) split, which really means Seager and Smith here.
Opp wRC+: 91 (20.1 K%, 94 Home)
DEF: -22
B30: 4.06
Max Scherzer was pulled after two innings in his most recent start with an arm issue. He’s been known to do that in order to preserve himself and not let injuries get out of hand. After averaging just 91.3 mph over those two innings, he’s down to 92.6 mph on the season. That’s more than a mph down from last season, which was his first time below 94 mph since Detroit. On a grand scale, the 20 K% is concerning, but with just 5.0% walks and a 33.7% hard contact rate, it’s workable. His 3.46 xERA is half a run below a 3.99 ERA that’s a quarter to half a run lower than all other estimators. Scherzer has a 92.8 Z-Contact% that’s frightening though. His worst mark ever was 85.5% in 2010. PitchingBot thinks he still has something left in the tank with all, but one pitch grading above 50 and even the changeup (12.2%) missing by one point to form a 3.62 Bot ERA. The other model projects an 85 Stuff+ that works up to a 102 Pitching+. Even last year, Scherzer had a 101 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 74 (24 K%, 78 Road)
DEF: 23.5
B30: 4.32
I’m concerned enough about Scherzer to take a shot with a large dog, who really only has a small bullpen edge. It’s not like the Rangers have a great offense this year. You could add both teams wRC+ since the break and still not break 100. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Rays @ Blue Jays
Seven one-hit innings for Taj Bradley last time out. Seven shutout innings in his previous start. In fact, since the Orioles punished him for nine runs, he’s allowed just eight runs (five earned) over 49 innings with a 21.6 K-BB%, bringing his season rate up to 21.2%. He has a 33.9% hard contact rate an 6.1% Barrels/BBE over this 49 innings stretch as well. Safe to say he’s found it with a 2.61 FIP and 3.06 xFIP over this span, though some season estimators still closer to four with 11.4% barrels/BBE. Fourteen of his 21 barrels came in his first five starts. PitchingBot (4.51 Bot ERA) only really likes his fastball, while Stuff+ (115) is more optimistic (103 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.2 K%)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.93
Chris Bassitt has allowed 12 runs over his last 16.2 innings with a 7.6 K-BB%. He just can’t get it going with any consistency and still can’t get LHBs out (.347 wOBA, .369 xwOBA) despite all 321 pitches he throws. Some of those pitches are above average, but some of them also sit below 40 on the PitchingBot scale. Bassitt’s 94 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ marks confirm the decline. With just 10 of his 24 barrels leaving the yard, all non-FIP estimators exceed four.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 15.5
B30: 4.59
Giants @ Dodgers
Logan Webb has gone at least six innings in 12 of his last 13 starts, but allowed at least four runs in four of them, including 11 in his last 11 innings pitched. Webb is up to a 14.7 K-BB% on the season, but it’s dropping again (10.6% over his last four). He keeps the ball on the ground no matter what (57.7%), but has allowed far too much hard contact this season (48.5%) with 8.2% Barrels/BBE, despite all the ground balls. He either needs to keep his K-BB% well above average or diminish the hard contact if he wants to get back in the top pitchers in the league discussion. With just seven of his 32 barrels leaving the yard, he’s able to hide some of this decline in estimators below his 3.59 ERA, except for the contact inclusive 4.30 xERA. Some believe his .330 BABIP will decline, but I worry about his 8.0 HR/FB outside San Francisco. On a more positive note, nearly all his pitches grade extremely well via PitchingBot with 112 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ marks, but the Dodgers have no individual pitch weaknesses.
Opp wRC+: 118 (123 Home, 137 since break)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.57
Clayton Kershaw is conservatively projected just a quarter run below four on average. He had some estimators close to that in 2019, otherwise never. In his two AAA rehab starts, he struck out five of nine, but then just two of 18. I don’t really know what to expect.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: -5.5
B30: 4.47
Braves @ Mets
I don’t think the Braves are mad Chris Sale was pushed back to face the Mets here with rainouts against the Reds two straight days, but that also means I can copy and paste this from Tuesday…
Chris Sale struck out just four of 20 Padres in his last start before the break, but that team just does not strike out. Possibly the leading Cy Young candidate, a 26.8 K-BB% is supported by a 48.1 GB%, 5.7% Barrels/BBE and 31.9% hard hit rate. His 2.70 ERA matches a 2.70 xERA and 2.68 SIERA. Matching 102 Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks are a bit surprising, but all PitchingBot grades are 55 or better with a 3.31 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 122 (113 Home)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 2.94
Luis Severino has bookended his last five starts with 12 innings of shutout ball on just five hits (17 strikeouts). In between, he allowed 13 runs in 19.1 innings with 10 strikeouts. Severino has frequently been mixing up his pitch usage over the last month, going 35.2% sliders last time out, but 40.2% sliders the game before that after 54.9% sinkers. He seems to be leading with a different pitch each game and that ends up dictating his ground ball and strikeout rates that game. With a 42.6 GB% over his last 10 starts, he’s dipped under 50% on the season (48.4%). He’s allowed just a 33.6% hard contact rate and 5.6% Barrels/BBE over this span on basically on the season, which allows him to continue with a 10% K-BB, although that’s been volatile too lately. A 3.74 xERA is Severino’s only estimator not more than half a run above his 3.58 ERA, but you just don’t know what you’re going to get from him in any given start anymore, at least in terms of pitch mix, but it’s likely to be hard to square up.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.3 K%, 89 Road)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.35
Athletics @ Angels
How about we avoid this mess and just say that Ross Stripling’s estimators were averaging around four and a half before hitting the IL with an elbow issue exactly two months ago and Kenny Rosenberg projects similarly to that? Stripling struck out one of the 36 batters he faced in a pair of AAA rehab starts. He struck out just 13 of his last 127 before hitting the IL, but he’s also allowed just 4.4% Barrels/BBE with a 34.8% hard contact rate, so the 4.39 xERA isn’t THAT bad. He also has a 4.35 Bot ERA with an 89 Stuff+ score working up to a 99 Pitching+. It’s not all terrible. Some of it is merely below average.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: -17
B30: 4.13
Kenny Rosenberg has struck out seven of 43 batters over two relief appearances. He’s walked four with as many barrels (12.5%) and a 43.8% hard hit rate. He’s 29 years-old and has thrown 53.2 big league innings for the Angels over the last three seasons with an 8.5 K-BB%.
Opp wRC+: 109 (90 Road, 180 since break)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.29
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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