It's nearly 8pm EST on Tuesday night as I start this and we still have six TBDs for Wednesday. I'm just blindly trusting the best guesses from Roster Resource and doing what I can here. Most of the unnamed pitchers are afternoon starts.
Now 11 pm EST. Done for the night with six more to go. Still three TBDs, all day games and the rainout in Atlanta could complicate things some, but with all daily fantasy main slate pitchers confirmed, I should be able to post DFS notes once I get through the last six.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Reds @ Braves
Frankie Montas has allowed 11 barrels (16.9%) over his last four starts and has a 48.2% hard contact rate over his last five. Pitch modeling is very marginal and he doesn’t have an estimators below four and a half. Montas does have a 100 point split by either wOBA or xwOBA. It could help him here Atlanta only featuring a few LHBs recently.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.3 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.64
Allan Winans has a 15.7 K-BB% over 82 AAA innings and very aggressive projections averaging around four. He’s been a bit barrel prone (8.4%) in his 37 innings of major league work since last year.
Opp wRC+: 91 (25.5 K%)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 2.85
Cardinals @ Pirates
RR is guessing Matt Liberatore here. RHBs have a .349 wOBA and .355 xwOBA against him this year.
Opp wRC+: 96 (24.6 K%, 87 Home)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.98
Martin Perez has allowed 9.3% Barrels/BBE, nearly matching his 9.7 K-BB%. ALL batters exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him without and estimator below four and a half. His 71 Stuff+ is second worst among all pitchers with more than 70 innings.
Opp wRC+: 78 (20.3 K%, 96 Road)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.18
Phillies @ Twins
Aaron Nola opened his second half with four runs and as many strikeouts over 22 Pirates faced. He’s allowed 23 runs over his last 40.1 innings, but with a 22.8 K-BB%, which has raised his season mark to 18.5%. On the season, all estimators are within one-quarter run of his 3.54 ERA with 103 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ marks to go with a 3.55 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 111 (125 Home)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.71
This could be David Festa, a strong pitching prospect (50 Future Value grade via Fangraphs), who had poor results (12 runs, 10 innings), but a 14.9 K-BB% and strong pitch modeling metrics with all pitches graded above 55 via PitchingBot, in his first two starts.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.34
Update 12 EST: Okert opens, Festa likely to follow.
Brewers @ Cubs
This might be Joe Ross returning from a two month IL stint. He struck out just seven of 46 in three rehab starts, facing 22 batters in the last of them. Ross had estimators averaging close to four and a half through nine starts prior to the injury. The surprising part was a large reverse split (RHBs > .350 wOBA and xwOBA, LHBs < .300).
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 20
B30: 4.31
Justin Steele didn’t have it for the first time in a long time in his first post-break start, allowing five of the 25 Diamondbacks he faced to score in fewer than five innings. On the season, his 3.07 ERA matches a 3.00 ERA with an 18.1 K-BB%, 5.4% Barrels/BBE and 34.7% hard contact rate.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 2
B30: 3.36
Update 12:15 EST: Ross is not starting. Don't know if it's an opener for him or a full on bullpen game. Yelich out. It's a wind blowing in day at Wrigley, but not insanely so.
Red Sox @ Rockies
By Stuff+ (135) and Pitching+ (109), Nick Pivetta is one of the filthiest pitchers in the league and after striking out 28 of his last 72 batters, can you really argue? His 10% Barrels/BBE hurts less with a 23. K-BB%. All estimators are below his 3.84 ERA, while PitchingBot grades for all three offerings he throws more than 10% of the time are 57 or better. His 66 grade fastball (48.5%, 0.9 RV/100) matches up well with a team that can’t hit fastballs (-0.44 wFA/C is sixth worst).
Opp wRC+: 82 (25.5 K%, 82 Home)
DEF: -6
B30: 4.31
Cal Quantrill has allowed 21 runs over his last 29.1 innings with an improved 11.9 K-BB% and the same 6.5% Barrels/BBE. A bit of regression with his 4.15 ERA still at least two-tenths of a run below all estimators.
Opp wRC+: 109 (112)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.95
Pitching and offensive edges are very large for Boston here. I like their F5 price (-166).
Update 1:30 EST: 93 degrees. Blackmon, Wong, O'Neill all sit. No movement on BOS F5.
Astros @ Athletics
Over his last 61 innings, Hunter Brown has allowed just 14 runs with a 20.1 K-BB% and half of those runs were surrendered to the red hots Twins two starts before the break. Minnesota also represents the only other time Brown has allowed more than two runs over these nine starts. Yes, 10 of his 14 runs over this span belong to the Twins. Up to a 15.5 K-BB% with a 32.1% hard hit rate (4.8% Barrels/BBE), Brown has allowed exactly as many home runs (14) as barrels. Non-FIP estimators are all more than a quarter run below his 4.14 ERA with PitchingBot grades between 49 and 56 for five of his six pitches with a 4.27 Bot ERA, 104 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 99 (26.1 K%, 111 Home, 158 since break)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.61
At one point, J.P. Sears had struck out exactly one batter in three straight starts against the Padres and then Twins twice. He’s followed that up by striking out 24 of 91 Angels, Diamondbacks and Red Sox. He’s actually struck out two or fewer in eight of his 19 starts this year, but also six or more seven times. The 17.6 K% and 10.6 K-BB% are uneven and volatile, while we can say the same for his 10.2% Barrels/BBE. Sears has generated 28 of his 34 barrels in 10 of his 20 starts. The result is all estimators above a 4.50 ERA, but only a 5.59 dERA more than half a run outside his 4.49 ERA. You could end up with an eight strikeout quality start, but you could also end up with a more barrels than Ks.
Opp wRC+: 108 (17.6 K%, 97 Road)
DEF: -16.5
B30: 4.03
That volatility from Sears can work in our favor with the offense being competitive. It’s a nice price (+138) for a team that’s been smoking the ball at home.
Update 1:40 EST: No Langeliers, but low 80s w/ near double digit wind out to right-center. Playing the over (8.5 -105).
Angels @ Mariners
Griffin Canning’s best estimator is a 4.84 dERA. LHBs exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 93 (28.8 K%)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.25
Pretty impressive that Luis Castillo struck out eight of 23 Blue Jays in his second to last start before the break, but it’s the only time he’s struck out more than five in his last six starts and ties his highest strikeout total since April. The velocity is down nearly a mph from last season and the strikeouts are down nearly three points, resulting in a 16.6 K-BB%. In addition, LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Castillo, which may be a point of strength for him against the Angels, as RHBs are below .270.
Opp wRC+: 91 (88 Road)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.89
Update 1:50 EST: Seattle adds a RHB (Haniger) to give them just five LHBs against Canning's split. Los Angeles adds two LHBs (Calhoun, Thaiss in for Rendon, O'Hoppe) to give them five against Castillo's split. Line has moved substantially towards Angels.
Tigers @ Guardians
Jack Flaherty averaged 94 mph for the first time since May, suggesting that his back is feeling better. With 15 of 20 barrels leaving the park, a 3.16 FIP is perfectly in line with a 3.13 ERA, all other estimators being below three and dropping as low as a 2.48 xFIP. Flaherty’s 96 Stuff+ score is a bit of a surprise, but works up to a 104 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 98 (19 K%, 110 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.91
A 27.6 K% and 6.6 BB% that nearly matches the 7.2% Barrels/BBE that Tanner Bibee has allowed, generate estimators ranging from a 3.35 FIP to a 3.54 dERA, which are all slight below his 3.58 ERA. At least six innings in eight of his last 10 starts as well with 102 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ marks. Bibee does have some difficulties with LHBs (.336 wOBA, .305 xwOBA w/ RHBs below .285) that the Tigers are unlikely to support.
Opp wRC+: 95 (88 Road)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.91
DFS Notes: Three protected environments, two nearly always closed, on an eight game slate with one game that has minor rain potential. No Coors, but we do have a Flexen. The Rangers (5.39) are the top offense on the board with three more offenses exceeding four and a half implied runs and another three exactly at that mark right now. Only one other offense before we get to seven below four runs. Pitching decisions are difficult tonight with all top pitchers having something to be at least slightly concerned about.
We start in Cleveland, below 80 degrees with a double digit wind blowing across the field. The Guardians (3.8) and Tigers (3.2) are both near the bottom of the board, the latter second from last. I think Flaherty is fine and would be my third best pitcher in a vacuum. The obvious caveat is that the Guardians don’t strike out. I have Bibee barely behind Flaherty and am not sure why the numbers don’t like him more. Personally, I prefer Bibee slightly for just $500 less and tried to make him work in my DK lineup, but came up just $100 short. The weakest split here is Bibee against LHBs, as mentioned above. Riley Greene (154 wRC+, .225 ISO v RHP, 143 wRC+ L30 days) is my only bat of interest in this game. Both pitchers are tough to run on, the Cleveland duo tougher. The Tigers have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days, Cleveland middle of the pack. The Guardians used nearly the entire pen yesterday, though only Smith (40), who threw the most pitches, has worked two of the last three.
Update 3:55 EST: The wind has slightly changed directions, slightly blowing in from the left-field pole. Phil Cuzzi makes it more pitcher friendly. Noel in for Fry slightly increases strikeout rate for Flaherty. McKinstry and Kelly in for Malloy and Rogers gets another LHB in against Bibee and slightly decreases strikeout rates. Flaherty ahead of Bibbee w/ Cole in between right now. Flaherty a stronger consideration on both sites tonight. We'll see if it remains that way all the way through.
Orioles @ Marlins
Nearly 26 year-old Chayce McDermott is likely to make his major league debut here. The 45+ Future Value prospect (Fangraphs) has potentially three above average pitches, but questionable command grades. Recent scouting reports suggest mid-rotation upside if he can throw more strikes. McDermott has had strikeout rates above 30%, but walk rates in the double digits too at AAA each of the last two years. Projection systems average around four and a half runs per nine.
Opp wRC+: 83 (87 Home)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.71
Edward Cabrera has walked four or more in three of his last five starts. LHBs have a .442 wOBA and .443 xwOBA against him this year. That is a problem against Baltimore. Also a problem is his 30 grade fastball (24.5%, -5.3 RV/100) because the Orioles are the fifth best offense in the league against fastballs (-0.36 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.5 K%, 119 Road, 149 since break)
DEF: -12
B30: 2.99
DFS Notes: Three protected environments, two nearly always closed, on an eight game slate with one game that has minor rain potential. No Coors, but we do have a Flexen. The Rangers (5.39) are the top offense on the board with three more offenses exceeding four and a half implied runs and another three exactly at that mark right now. Only one other offense before we get to seven below four runs. Pitching decisions are difficult tonight with all top pitchers having something to be at least slightly concerned about.
We start in Cleveland, below 80 degrees with a double digit wind blowing across the field. The Guardians (3.8) and Tigers (3.2) are both near the bottom of the board, the latter second from last. I think Flaherty is fine and would be my third best pitcher in a vacuum. The obvious caveat is that the Guardians don’t strike out. I have Bibee barely behind Flaherty and am not sure why the numbers don’t like him more. Personally, I prefer Bibee slightly for just $500 less and tried to make him work in my DK lineup, but came up just $100 short. The weakest split here is Bibee against LHBs, as mentioned above. Riley Greene (154 wRC+, .225 ISO v RHP, 143 wRC+ L30 days) is my only bat of interest in this game. Both pitchers are tough to run on, the Cleveland duo tougher. The Tigers have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days, Cleveland middle of the pack. The Guardians used nearly the entire pen yesterday, though only Smith (40), who threw the most pitches, has worked two of the last three.
Update 4:10 EST: Another contender (LHB) Kjerstad (143, .204). Now we have to find one to omit. Also played BAL o4.5 (-102).
Padres @ Nationals
Matt Waldron is as volatile as, well, a knuckleballer, despite the traditional arsenal in his back pocket. He’s completed at least six innings in 9 of 10 and more than that in half of them, but had allowed at least three runs in three straight (once with one strikeout) before six innings of one run ball in Cleveland last time out, striking out five without a walk. His 3.59 ERA is below all estimators, closer to contact inclusive ones (32.7% hard hit rate) with contact neutral ones (14.5 K-BB%) above four. Pitch modeling doesn’t deal with knuckleballs, but PitchingBot does love the sweeper (20.6%, 1.4 RV/100, 67 grade), a pitch the Nationals don’t hit (-0.44 wSL/C is bottom third of the league). However, Waldron has just an overall 83 Stuff+ mark, working up to a 98 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 96 (20.9 K%, 95 Home)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.71
Mitchell Parker has allowed four or five runs in four of his last seven starts (every other start), including not making it out of the first inning against the Brewers last time out. A 4.51 dERA being an outlier, Parker’s 3.90 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all other estimators. The good news is that he’s sustained his season long 14.5 K-BB% over this seven start span, stranding just 60.1% of his runners. As his 4.25 Bot ERA somewhat confirms, with three of four pitches slightly above a 50 grade, league average pitcher gonna pitch league averagely?
Opp wRC+: 99 (17.5 K%)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 3.81
DFS Notes: Just above 80 with a five mph wind out to center and our only real rain chances on the slate. Both teams at 4.5 implied runs. Parker may be one of the worst values on the board, simply because the Padres DON’T STRIKE OUT! Waldron is a bit volatile for more than $8K, but some exposure is fine in multi-entry. Batters from either side between a .280 and .310 wOBA and xwOBA against Waldron this year. Abrams (123 wRC+, .226 ISO v RHP) and Winker (143, .194) have some value, but the sneaky play here may be Yepez (195, .216). All three exceed a 125 wRC+ L30 days, but Yepez is up to 189. The Padres sit just outside the top third of the league in pen estimators L30 days with Saurez (32) and Estrada (34) working two of the last three days. Profar (180, .208) and Machado (113, .167) are my favorite San Diego bats and in at least one of my single entry lineups. RHBs have a .288 wOBA, but .342 xwOBA against Parker. Both exceed a 110 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 100 wRC+ on the road. The Nats have very middling pen estimators, but are rested at the top.
Update 4:25 EST: Adams in for Ruiz. Has 2.5x the K rate vs RHP.
Mets @ Yankees
Sean Manaea followed up a nine strikeout effort against the Rockies going into the break with a one strikeout performance against the worst offense in baseball against LHP, the Marlins, who tagged him for five runs. At least he only walked one in each start. It broke a string of three straight starts of six innings or more, a mark which he hadn’t previously hit since early May. You’re going to get your ups and downs with Manaea. The overall record a league average 13.2 K-BB% with a near league average contact profile (8.2% Barrels/BBE, 41.1% hard hit rate). With just 10 of 23 barrels leaving the park (Thanks Citi Field? But eight of 10 HRs at home), a 3.84 FIP nearly matches his 3.73 ERA with additional estimators ranging from a 4.28 SIERA to a 4.54 dERA. A 4.72 Bot ERA is even higher and in line with his 86 Stuff+ and 96 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 102 (9.9 K%, 118 Home, 135 since break)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.35
First three starts, Gerrit Cole averaged 95.5 mph on his heater. Last three, 96.3 mph. He’s significantly increased cutter usage (23.5% from 7% last year) and reduced slider reliance (9.9% from 20.8% last year) and has a 26.8 K-BB% over his last three starts, as opposed to 8.8% over his first three. Six of his eight barrels were allowed in those first three starts too, with a 50% hard contact rate, down to 22.7% over his last three. If you think it was opponent based, he’s faced the Orioles, Red Sox and Rays over his last three starts. I’ll refrain from putting much stock in his full six start estimators as it appears to be two different pitchers. Cole is up to a 112 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+, still well below last year’s 121 and 109.
Opp wRC+: 111 (115 Road, 111 since break)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.56
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a breeze coming in from near the right field pole. The Yankees (4.8) are second from the top with the Mets (3.70) fourth from the bottom. No interest in Manaea here. Cole is right around the Flaherty/Bibee line for me, but also in a tough matchup and second most expensive on the board. He’s probably fine, but not my first choice. There are some strikeouts in the projected Mets lineup, but only Martinez above 25%. All, but the red hot McNeil (142 wRC+ L30 days) exceed a 100 wRC+ v RHP this year. Lindor (124 wRC+, .192 ISO) is the top bat here with a 179 wRC+ L30 days, but probably too expensive for this matchup. The Yankees have top quarter of the league pen estimators L30 days behind Cole. RHBs a .283 wOBA, but .330 xwOBA against Manaea, LHBs .332 and .315. Severino wasn’t wrong. It’s Judge (241, .413) and Soto (165, .202) here plus Jones (160, .261) if in the leadoff spot again. Judge and Soto exceed a 200 wRC+ over the last 30 days with Torres (120) the only other projected batter above 65. The Mets pen has the third worst estimators L30 days and Mendoza has exhausted it since the break, while Weaver (53) is the only Yankee reliever working two of the last three.
Update 4:35 EST: No Jones. Torres bats leadoff. Iglesias in for Bader, lower strikeout rate. Have Cole slightly ahead of Bibee and slightly behind Flaherty.
Rays @ Blue Jays
Written before his last start…”Zach Eflin has retained all the precision of previous years and even improved upon it with this season’s absurd 2.2% walk rate, but there’s been a decline in pure stuff from last year, represented in his 18.9 K% and 94 Stuff+ mark, which works up to a 104 Pitching+ with location added back in. The results have been kind of hit or miss, striking out at least six with only one walk in four of his last five starts, including the Yankees last time out.”
He walked four Yankees. With 6.8% Barrels/BBE and a 35.7% hard hit rate, Eflin’s 3.38 xERA is the lowest of estimators running as high as a 3.91 SIERA, all below his 4.14 ERA (67.4 LOB%). Eflin does offer a range of highly graded pitches (curveball, cutter, sinker) which the Blue Jays struggle against. Of course, they’re below average against everything except changeups.
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.2 K%, 99 Home)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.93
After a magnificent pair of outings with 12.2 innings of one run ball with 12 strikeouts, Yariel Rodriguez was right back to four innings and 19 batters against Arizona, despite just two runs and seven strikeouts. Despite a 24.5 K% and just 5.7% Barrels/BBE both the team and his 12.9 BB% generally cap his outings somewhere around twice through the order (if that). A 3.92 ERA is his only estimator within half a run of his 3.67 ERA, despite three of five barrels turning into home runs. While both of these pitchers have reverse splits, Rodriguez’s is more pronounced, about 100 points, with RHBs above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 15.5
B30: 4.59
DFS Notes: A 98 closed roof run factor averages 102 with it open and it has been frequently, but the problem has been finding out in a timely manner. Team total increases could be a clue, but they currently stand at Blue Jays 3.9 with the Rays just slightly higher (4.1). Rodriguez could pop on at $6.5K, but is generally too limited. Eflin has been too low upside against a team that makes contact, but might not be the worst for $7.5K. I feel “meh” about all of it. Some interest in Springer (104 wRC+, .167 ISO v RHP, 207 wRC+ L30 days) and Vlad (140, .186, 195) with Eflin’s slight reverse split (RHBs .329 wOBA, .308 xwOBA). Vlad actually has a 161 wRC+ at home this year. Eflin isn’t easy to run on. The Tampa Bay pen has middle of the league estimators L30 days, but two of last three for Fairbanks (34) and Adams (39). Because of Rodriguez’s larger reverse split (mentioned above), I’d rather attack with Rays RHBs if forced to. Arozarena (93, .149, 153) and Paredes (122, .183, 111) would be my top choices. Both exceed a 110 wRC+ on the road, Rodriguez and Jansen can be run on and the Jays have the worst pen estimators in the league L30 days.
Update 4:50 EST: No official word. May not get one, but there is one tweet suggesting a closed roof. Kirk in for Jansen again. Better throwing catcher.
Update 6 EST: Roof actually open.
White Sox @ Rangers
The pitcher with the worst stuff in baseball (52 Stuff+) was drilled for seven runs by the Royals with more walks than strikeouts last time out. He’s allowed 8.4% Barrels/BBE, but only a 36.4% hard contact rate. The 7.8 K-BB% is the larger issue. All estimators are below, but within half a run of his 5.22 ERA (66.6 LOB%). Batters from either side are within three points of a .340 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 91 (20.1 K%, 94 Home, 56 since break)
DEF: -22
B30: 4.06
After three straight outings of seven innings and a total of three runs, Nathan Eovaldi was smacked for six runs and three home runs by the Orioles. That can be forgiven, but there are a couple of concerning signs here. The first is 13 of his 19 barrels coming over his last eight starts with his hard hit rate up to 43.6% on the year, though he’s actually slightly improved his K-BB to 17.3% over that span. The other is that he was down to 94.7 mph in this start. That’s a game average he has been at this season, but not since May 2nd. In fact, he hasn’t had a single game average within half a mph since then. That said, all estimators remain below four and he has one of the best defenses in the league behind him.
Opp wRC+: 74 (24 K%, 78 Road, 74 since break)
DEF: 22
B30: 4.32
DFS Notes: A 104 park run factor with the roof closed, as it almost certainly is, the Rangers are the top team on the board (5.39) with the White Sox pulling up the bottom (3.11). Yesterday, I played a struggling pitcher with a great matchup and cashed that lineup on DK. Tonight, I’m playing another in my SP1 spot and on FD, despite Eovaldi’s velo drop last time out. He’s gotta be my top pitcher with this matchup and only third most expensive. Let’s hope all is right. With RHBs below .300 (wOBA and xwOBA) against him, I can’t even make a case for Robert (106 wRC+, .253 ISO v RHP) here. Alternatively, the only things holding you back from Rangers would be price and ownership. The former not an issue with Josh Smith (135, .183). Mentioned above, Flexen’s issues with LHBs, which make Seager (143, .230) a strong play at a strong position, he also struggles against RHBs (.315, .340), but nearly every right-handed Ranger has been subpar. Still fine for stacks. One thing you can’t do is run on Flexen and Lee. The White Sox are just outside the bottom third of the league in pen estimators L30 days and Brebbia (46) has worked two of the last three. The Texas pen has been heavily worked the last few days, which could give Eovaldi a deeper leash.
Update 5 EST: Roof closed as expected. Eovaldi still top arm.
Diamondbacks @ Royals
This is going to be a tale of two great pitches. The first is Ryne Nelson’s fastball. He utilized it 67.7% of the time in his last start (68.7% last three) and struck out nine Cubs. According to Nick Pollack’s Starting Pitcher Roundup that day, “The pitch returned 11/65 whiffs at 95+ mph with a 34% CSW, backed by 17″ of iVB”. When it’s on, he has a chance. He’s allowed just five runs over his last 19.1 innings with a single barrel, 28.6% hard hit rate and 22.5 K-BB%. His season K-BB is half that rate (11.5%). On the season, all estimators are below Nelson’s 4.78 ERA, though only the FIP (3.89) dips below four. This is an improved pitcher with this fastball though. In fact, it gets a 59 PItchingBot grade on the season, while the four-seam is one of two pitches the Royals really struggle with (-0.48 wFA/C is fourth worst). Beware though, RHBs still exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Nelson on the season.
Opp wRC+: 97 (19 K%, 109 Home, 119 since break)
DEF: 19.5
B30: 3.77
Michael Wacha’s changeup may be more than great (31.8%, 2 RV/100, 79 PB grade – 80 is max). It may be the best pitch in baseball and matches up well with the Diamondbacks (-0.69 wCH/C is third worst), who smoke fastballs, cutters and curves. Wacha has allowed more than two runs in just one of his last nine starts with a 16.9 K-BB% and 32.4% hard contact rate over this span. His 3.55 ERA is a match for his 3.55 FIP on the season, though other estimators are half a run higher. Despite the elite changeup, it’s LHBs that exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC: 103 (20.6 K%)
DEF: 17.5
B30: 3.27
DFS Notes: Hottest weather on the slate, near 90 degrees, but without wind. Both teams at 4.5 implied runs. Despite Nelson’s fastball rise, the Royals don’t strike out enough. However, he’s just $6.1K on DraftKings. Maybe? Wacha is currently my chosen DK SP2 ($7.7K) when I came up just short of Bibee ($100), although I’m considering a chance to McDermott. I have Wacha just behind the top five (Cole/Flaherty/Bibee group). That the Diamondbacks struggle against changeups makes the difference for me right now. They don’t strike out much either though and this is not a pitcher friendly environment in this heat, even if it deflates power. I’m not ignoring LH D’Backs here (.332, .321 against Wacha). I would recommend hedging in multi-entry with Marte (114 wRC+, .162 ISO v RHP), Carroll (95, .147) and Pederson (148, .217). However, Wacha is tough to run on and KC has top five pen estimators L30 days. With Nelson’s reverse split, Witt (168, .256) looks great and Perez (124, .206) is viable. Witt exceed a 220 wRC+ L30 days and at home this year. You can’t run on Nelson either though and Arizona has middle of the league pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:30 EST: Thomas and Herrera in for Gurriel and Moreno. Seven LHBs.
Giants @ Dodgers
The returns of a former Cy Young winner and current Cy Young hopeful, Robbie Ray makes his first start of the season and first for the Giants after Tommy John. Rehab starts have been all over the minors (CPX/A/AAA) and in no particular order either. He worked through the order twice in his last start (AAA) and has struck out 16 of his last 35 batters (A & AAA). Ray has a career 18.9 K-BB%, seemingly solving walk issues and at least improving contact management in recent seasons. Projection systems average slightly above four. They think he’ll return to be a league average pitcher in his age 32 season.
Opp wRC+: 124 (18.4 K%, 123 Home, 137 since break)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.57
Tyler Glasnow only missed a few weeks, but could be slightly limited without a rehab start. He’s allowed 10 runs over his last nine innings before hitting the IL and actually had a 4.50 ERA going back over his last 52 innings, though that was a lot about a 59.2% strand rate and seven of 11 barrels (8.9%) leaving the yard. Glasnow retained a 26.9 K-BB% over this span. His season rate is 26.8% with all estimators below three and all non-FIP estimators more than three-quarters of a run below his 3.47 ERA. Although, a 3.37 Bot ERA nearly matches actual results with only the curveball (18.2%, 1.9 RV/100, 46 PB grade) grading below average.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -6
B30: 4.47
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a near double digit wind out to center is hitting weather in L.A.. The Dodgers (4.68) are third from the top, the Giants (3.32) third from the bottom. I don’t know what to do with Robbie Ray here. I’m certainly not rostering him in his first game back in a disastrous potential matchup. I guess I’d have some Dodger exposure in multi-entry. Maybe mimic ownership. Smith, Ohtani, Teoscar, Pages and Vargas all exceed a 140 wRC+ v LHP, Pages the only one below a .200 ISO. The first four in the projected order exceed a 120 wRC+ L30 days. Ray is super easy to run on, Bailey super hard. The Giants pen estimators are top third of the league last 30 days. In a vacuum, Glasnow would be my second best pitcher. Perhaps I move him back because of workload concerns and potential rust. Perhaps he’s too expensive here. I’m off SF bats…with ONE exception. Fitzgerald (202 wRC+, .325 ISO v RHP) has been on FIRE (349 wRC+ L30 days). You can run on Glasnow and the Dodgers have the second worst pen estimators L30 days and it has been absolutely exhausted since the break. Hudson (25), Vesia (36), Trienen (36) and Phillies (33) all AT LEAST two of last three.
Update 6:30 EST: No lineups yet, but DFS slate starts in 10 minutes. Had to use Fitgerald to keep my O's stack with Jamhai Jones out.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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