If they don't want to give me pitchers, I can't write analysis. I start with seven TBDs on MLB.com at 7 PM EST on Monday night. The task of digging in and trying to decipher who may or may not pitch in these spots is time exhausting.
As I now look again more than four hours after the paragraph above, we're still at seven TBDs. One pitcher was confirmed, but another was scratched. I'll try to get through the last four with whatever corrections and updates are needed on Tuesday. If there aren't too many, then I'll follow up with daily fantasy notes, which may run a bit later than usual, depending on how many of Tuesday's TBDs Roster Resource got right.
In the process of starting another extra-inning losing streak (White Sox & Rockies). Also blew multiple leads in each game, including a four run one at Coors.
Stats are through Sunday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Tigers @ Guardians
This looks like a bullpen game. Roster Resource is currently listing Joey Wentz, who hasn’t started a game this year, even as an opener.
Opp wRC+: 116 (v LHP, 110 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.90
Xzavion Curry has faced fewer than 20 batters in all three starts. His only two major league appearances since June have been out of the pen, totaling 4.2 innings.
Opp wRC+: 94 (87 Road)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.01
Update 4 EST: Different LH reliever, Horton, starting. CLE keeping four LHBs in lineup. Riley Greene out. Replaced by Ibanez.
Cardinals @ Pirates
LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Lance Lynn, who sports just 83 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 85 (24.1 K%, 87 Home)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.02
Batters from either side of the plate are below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA against Paul Skenes (29.8 K-BB%, 6.0% Barrels/BBE). Along with 110 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ marks with a 2.97 Bot ERA, Skenes has a 58 grade fastball (PitchingBot). The Cardinals have one pitch weakness. They are third worst against fastballs (-0.72 wFB/C).
Opp wRC+: 108 (96 Road)
DEF: -17
B30: 3.26
Update 3:30 EST: 80 degrees, very little wind. Triolo & Grandal in for Hayes & Bart. Pitcher leaning Wolf behind the plate. Have a slight lean towards the Cards, who have a very large offensive advantage. We've seen marginal starting pitchers hold down the Pittsburgh offense and the Pirates defense is awful. But, it's also Lance Lynn. I need a bit.
Update 5:30 EST: I'm projecting Skenes closer to seven than eight strikeouts, but the +150 on the FanDuel boost makes it worthwhile.
Orioles @ Marlins
All non-FIP estimators are at least a run and a quarter above Albert Suarez’s 2.82 ERA. He’s stranded 79.4% or runners with just four home runs (4/4 HR/FB), but only 11 barrels (5.1%).
Opp wRC+: 83 (85 Home)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.77
This might be Kyle Tyler, who’s thrown 16 unimpressive innings for the Marlins this year (3.1 K-BB%).
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.5 K%, 120 Road)
DEF: -12
B30: 2.97
Update 3:45 EST: Playing o4.5 F5 (-125). Park has played more neutrally last few seasons. Suarez estimators around four and a half on average, Tyler projects even worse.
Padres @ Nationals
Pitch modeling thinks Randy Vasquez has the goods (107 Stuff+) and he’s just starting to show it with five runs over his last 20.1 innings. He’s struck out 11 of his last 44 Braves and D’Backs with two walks, but just an 8.0 SwStr%. LHBs exceed a .450 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while a 4.44 xFIP is his only estimator below a 4.57 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.9 K%, 96 Home)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.80
DJ Herz may be back. He’s struck out 41 over seven starts, 23 of them coming in just two. The 22.7 K-BB% is a bit skewed and comes with 11.2% Barrels/BBE. Just a 91 Stuff+ mark doesn’t suggest this is a guy who will continue to pile up the strikeouts.
Opp wRC+: 99 (17.5 K%)
DEF: -17
B30: 3.95
Mets @ Yankees
Jose Quintana allowed four home runs in a home start against the Rockies in his last effort before the break, but he’s also struck out 23.6% of batters over his last five starts and that includes a three walk, one strikeout start against the Nationals, over which he shut them out for seven innings. His 4.13 ERA on the season is below estimators ranging from a 4.40 xFIP to a 5.18 xERA. Quintana has stranded 78.6% of runners with a .262 BABIP. He’s never been below .282 before and that was back in 2018. He’s been above .300 each season since. Add to that an 82 Stuff+ score and 93 Pitching+ to go along with a 5.23 Bot ERA and all PitchingBot grades below 50. Batters from either side exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year.
Opp wRC+: 103 (10.1 K-BB%, 116 Home)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.26
Luis Gil has made some adjustments and fixed his shit since the last time the Mets saw and pummeled him. He’s struck out 16 of his last 47 with a single walk, but another two barrels. He’s allowed multiple barrels in five straight starts (15.2%), which is why the K-BB% improvement is so important. At a 16.5 K-BB% and 9% Barrels/BBE on the season, his 3.17 ERA is below estimators from a 3.36 xERA to a 4.06 xFIP. That’s because one quarter of his hard contact has come in barrels. Despite a 110 Stuff+ (101 Pitching+), Gil has just a 4.22 Bot ERA with all three pitches grading between 46 and 53 (PB). RHBs are below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 109 (114 Road)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.39
DFS Notes: An 11 game slate features three protected environments, two frequently open, one rarely ever. Weather conditions are a bit warmer and riskier (rain) than yesterday with light winds. It doesn’t currently seem that any of the games with rain potential need to be avoided at this point though. The Red Sox (6.03) once again clear the field by more than a run, but with eight offenses between 4.5 and 5.0 runs today and just six below four implied runs.
We start in the Bronx with temps in the low 80s, a light wind across the field and very little chance of disruption. The Yankees have the second highest team total on the slate (4.98) with the Mets a bottom half of the board offense tonight (4.02). While Gil has righted the ship to some extent, he still has enough flaws in a tough matchup that I wouldn’t want to pay $9K or more for him. Even with increased strikeouts, the risk/reward ratio on Quintana is not enough here. LHBs have a .287 wOBA, but .318 xwOBA against Gil. Nimmo (130 wRC+, .190 ISO v RHP this year) and Lindor (122, .191) each exceed a 140 wRC+ over the last 30 days and remain in play here. Gil is not easy to run on and the Yankee bullpen has turned it around with the sixth best estimators L30 days. Judge (241, .425) is the top bat on the board. Soto (170, .208) isn’t too far behind. Verdugo (64, .082) might be the only Yankee bat I’d look to avoid. The Mets have the sixth worst pen estimators L30 days and both Diaz (40) and Butto (46) have worked two of the last three days.
Update 4:20 EST: Jahmai Jones (197, .300 in a small sample) bats leadoff and could be a great value. Vientos is back, Alvarez is out and the Mets are playing Taylor instead of Stewart against Gil's sizeable split, knocking them down to three LHBs. Playing NYY o.45 (-125).
Rays @ Blue Jays
This could be Tyler Alexander returning. He was optioned because a 4.24 SIERA was his only estimator below four and a half. He’s had similar results, but a 17.9 K-BB% over 35.2 AAA innings. It was at 14.2% for the Tigers this year, but with 10.9% Barrels/BBE. PitchingBot absolutely loves him. Every pitch grades 60 or better with a 2.92 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 87 (18.7 K%)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.93
Berrios struck out a then season high eight Yankees four starts back and followed up by striking out a single Astro. He followed that up with a new season high 10 strikeouts in Seattle before finishing up his first half with no strikeouts and four walks in Arizona. It’s been a mess all season for Berrios, his 4.01 ERA below estimators that start at a 4.41 dERA and run all the way up to a 5.12 FIP. It’s actually RHBs doing most the damage this year (.336 wOBA, .363 xwOBA), though LHBs are above .300 too. Berrios adds middling 91 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ marks to a 4.16 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 12
B30: 4.72
Do we perhaps have an undervalued pitcher facing an over-valued one here? I have both pitchers grading similarly here, where the only real Toronto edge is on defense and it’s not that large a gap. The Toronto pen has the worst estimators in baseball L30 days and even if it’s not Alexander, I’m more against Berrios and the Toronto pen (and an offense now lacking Bichette) than on Alexander. Rays +136. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: A 98 park run factor with the roof closed increases to 102 on average with it open, The Blue Jays are upper middle of the board at 4.57 runs and Berrios is overvalued here with the Rays below four runs (3.93). If you’re playing multi-entry, a Berrios lineup or two is fine. Volatile means he’ll occasionally pop the big one, but that’s not our expectation. Although nobody in particular stands out (maybe Brandon Lowe’s 120 wRC+, .230 ISO v RHP), I’d likely sneak in a few Tampa Bay stacks too. In addition to batters from either side having at least a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against Berrios, the Blue Jays have the worst pen estimators in baseball L30 days. Alexander gets an opener and I’m still not even absolutely sure he’s pitching. If he were, remember that RHBs smash him and the Toronto lineup will be full of them. George Springer (96, .155) has a 213 wRC+ L30 days, Vlad (142, .194) is at 193 and may be my favorite third baseman on the slate. Solid value on nearly the entire lineup with Alexander pitching most of the game, as they’re fairly cheap. The Rays have bottom third of the league estimators L30 days too.
Update 4:30 EST: No roof info yet. Gain 3.93% on Rays ML.
Reds @ Braves
Another TBD, this might be Nick Martinez (per Roster Resource). His last start was in May and he’s faced even 10 batters in a game just twice since the start of June. Both he and the Cincinnati bullpen over the last month have estimators around three and a half. He does have some issues against LHBs (.337 wOBA). Statcast brings that down to a .299 xwOBA, but a lot of that work is out of the bullpen. However, now down Albies and Harris, the Braves are lacking LHBs.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.3 K%)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.55
Chris Sale struck out just four of 20 Padres in his last start before the break, but that team just does not strike out. Potentially the leading Cy Young candidate, a 26.8 K-BB% is supported by a 48.1 GB%, 5.7% Barrels/BBE and 31.9% hard hit rate. His 2.70 ERA matches a 2.70 xERA and 2.68 SIERA. Matching 102 Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks are a bit surprising, but all PitchingBot grades are 55 or better with a 3.31 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -3
B30: 3.15
No matter who the Reds throw here, I think +200 is a bit much. With all of the injuries, we can’t say that Atlanta has the better offense here. As good as Sale is and a massive advantage over any Cincinnati pitcher, the Reds are in their better split against LHP. Atlanta edges on defense and in the bullpen are minor as well. The Braves certainly deserve to be favored at home by a decent amount here, but not this much.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with wind less than five mph out towards left, near the pole and some chance of rain here. The Braves (4.51) are upper middle of the board with the Reds the low man (2.99). Sale is my top pitcher on the board and a strong value, but not by much on the former and not my favorite value near the top of the board. None the less, he’s a perfectly fine choice, weather permitting. Nick Martinez is not a pitcher of interest. We have no idea what his leash is. We mentioned that LHBs have given him some trouble with RHBs below a .265 against him. Kelenic (107 wRC+, .192 ISO v RHP) is the standout bat here and I want to say Olson (74, .137), but his numbers are awful, including a 16 wRC+ L30 days. Ozuna (161, .197) crushes RHP and has a team leading 165 L30 days. Stephenson is one of the worst throwing catchers. The Reds barely have top third of the league pen estimators L30 days. While I think the Reds were undervalued on the moneyline at +200, I’m not challenging Sale and the best bullpen estimators in baseball L30 days with Cincinnati bats.
Update 4:40 EST: Both teams sitting their third hitter (Riley & Candelario). D'arnaud bats cleanup for Braves.
Phillies @ Twins
Zach Wheeler had a pair of rough starts in Miami and Baltimore, the only two times he’s allowed more than two runs in his last 15 starts. His 18 K-BB% over that span is a bit lower than his season mark (19.5%), but with just 5.5% Barrels/BBE and a 29.8% hard contact rate. A contact inclusive estimator like a 2.89 xERA says Wheeler is pitching nearly as well as his 2.70 ERA, though additional estimators are around a half run higher and around three-quarters of a run worse than his ERA, maxing out at a 3.58 dERA. There may be some decline in underlying numbers, but Wheeler (108 Pitching+, 2.96 Bot ERA) is still one of the better pitchers in the league.
Opp wRC+: 111 (124 Home)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.62
Striking out seven of 21 Giants last time out, SWR now has a 23.2 K% over his last eight starts with an 11.5 SwStr%. He’s allowed 14 barrels over that span (11.7%), but just 42 hard hit balls overall (35%). That’s one-third of his hard contact in barrels. Similar to Wheeler, SWR’s 3.51 ERA is closer to contact inclusive estimators (3.68 FIP, 3.82 xERA) than contact neutral ones (4.30 xFIP), but he’s down to a 4.11 xFIP over this eight game stretch. SWR works an 87 Stuff+ up to a 101 Pitching+ with the curve (7.8%) and change (21.3%) exceeding 60 PitchingBot grades. I seem to go back and forth with him, but there may be some talent here.
Opp wRC+: 108 (105 Road)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.37
There’s no question who the superior pitcher is here. That might be it though. The Twins are down a couple of bats (aren’t they always), but appear to be on par with the Phillies offensively, while crushing the ball at home, and have defensive and bullpen edges. Let’s go with the home dog here (+136).
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light breeze in from left. We have miniscule interruption potential here. The Phillies (4.36) are middle of the board with the Twins fourth from the bottom (3.66). Wheeler is my third favorite arm tonight and a reasonable roster at a high price, even in a tough spot, but again, not my favorite high priced value. The Philadelphia pen estimators are middling over the last month, but the Twins that do reach are not running on this combination. Despite their productivity, I’m not very interested in any Minnesota bats. SWR is slightly interesting at $6.2K and is a reasonable SP2 consideration, though not the one I currently have in my single entry lineup. Statcast has batters from either side just below a .310 xOBA against him this year. Similar to yesterday, Harper (161 wRC+, .291 ISO v RHP) and Turner (160, .179) are my favorite Philly bats here. Both exceed a 130 wRC+ on the road this year and a 185 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. SWR can not stop the run game, but the Twins have the fourth best pen estimators L30 days.
Update 4:50 EST: Buxton and Jeffers out (along with Correa and Lewis still). Doesn't look that formidable a lineup, but still a 2.07% gain on Twins ML.
White Sox @ Rangers
Garrett Crochet struck out four of the six Pirates he faced in his last start. Yup, the White Sox are being ultra-conservative with their top trade chip. I don’t think they’ll be that aggressive with him here. He faced just 21 batters in his previous start, but over 93 pitches. This looks like a strong matchup for Crochet (29.8 K-BB%) in that he throws 55% fastballs (1.1 RV/100, 67 PB grade) and the Rangers can’t hit those (-0.45 wFA/C is sixth worst). Crochet’s worst estimator is a 2.61 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 96 (95 Home)
DEF: -22
B30: 3.98
Jon Gray has a 14 K% over his last 39.2 innings. The good news is that LHBs are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him and the White Sox only generally play two to four and none of them are really very good. With an 83 Stuff+ mark, all PitchingBot grades are below 50 for Gray.
Opp wRC+: 74 (78 Road)
DEF: 18
B30: 4.31
I don’t love the bullpens here and can’t be sure how far the White Sox will allow Crochet to go. Gray should be able to handle the White Sox with a great defense behind him. The F5 total is just 3.5, but +120 to the under and worth a shot here.
DFS Notes: A 104 park run factor with the roof closed, we have a pair of bottom half of the board offenses here with the White Sox (3.47) a bit lower than the Rangers (4.03). Yuck, but I think Jon Gray is my SP2 on DraftKings. That’s if I want to stack Red Sox again. Perhaps I can reconfigure to fit a pair of high priced arms, but this is where I’m landing right now. He’s just $7K in a great spot where he won’t have to face many competent LHBs. Robert (112 wRC+, .260 ISO v RHP) is a fine one off here. Gray can be run on and the Rangers have bottom five pen estimators L30 days with both Yates (34) and Robinson (31) working back to back days. Crochet would be tied with Wheeler for my number three overall arm if I were more confident in his workload. Semien (135, .194) and Langford (162, .281) are bats of interest here against a bottom third pen that was worked heavily in extras last night with Brebbia (46) going two straight.
Update 5 EST: Roof confirmed close. Carapazza behind the plate leans pitcher friendly. No Seager. Pham out for Sheets. Four LHBs for CWS. The F5 under (3.5) has moved to -105.
Brewers @ Cubs
With just a 10.2 K-BB% and 8.8% Barrels/BBE, Colin Rea doesn’t have an estimator within two-thirds of a run of his 3.77 ERA. LHBs have a .326 wOBA and .375 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24.1 K%)
DEF: 16.5
B30: 4.38
With a 14.9 K-BB% and 8% Barrels/BBE, Jameson Taillon doesn’t have a single estimator within half a run of his 3.10 ERA, but his worst estimator (4.18 xFIP) is still far better than Rea’s best (4.47 FIP).
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 4
B30: 3.34
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a near double digit wind out to right center with a chance for a delay. We’re not interested in pitching here anyway. The Brewers and Cubs both have middling 4.25 team run totals, which seem a bit light for this weather. Though batters from either side have a .289 wOBA against Taillon this year, it’s confirmed for RHBs by Statcast, but LHBs have a .321 xwOBA. Yelich (155 wRC+, .192 ISO) is the only really attractive play here. His 166 wRC+ over the last 30 days tops the projected lineup, although all exceed a 100 wRC+ v RHP this year. The Cubs have the fifth best pen estimators L30 days, though the entire top half of the pen has worked back to back days, though nobody exceeding 25 pitches. The reason mentioned above, I really like Cubs LHBs here. Happ (129, .216) and Busch (128, .190) both make my single entry lineup on either DK or FD. Both exceed a 135 wRC+ L30 days. Rea can be run on and the Milwaukee pen has the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:25 EST: Let's pile all the bad weather news here. Increasing chance of disruption here and in Atlanta (less so in New York). May drop Sale's ownership some and put more people on Gilbert, unfortunately. Also a very pitcher friendly umpire (Eddings). Both of these hurt my LH Cubs. Bauers in for Hoskins.
Diamondbacks @ Royals
This one looks like it will be Jordan Montgomery returning from just under a month on the IL. No rehab starts are visible in his Fangraphs game log. RHBs have a .402 wOBA and .371 xwOBA against him this year with all non-FIP estimators above five.
Opp wRC+: 95 (17.6 K%, 108 Home)
DEF: 19
B30: 4.03
Alec Marsh has a perfectly competent 14.4 K-BB%, but leaves too many pitches over the middle of the plate, resulting in 10.2% Barrels/BBE. While all estimators exceed four, a 4.95 xERA is the only one above his 4.52 ERA. If he can locate more consistently, he might be an average pitcher. RHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 102 (20.6 K%, 105 Road)
DEF: 17.5
B30: 3.48
DFS Notes: Mid-80s with almost no wind, both teams are upper half of the board at 4.75 implied runs. These are not pitchers we’re looking to roster. I don’t even know how much to expect out of Montgomery because it doesn’t look like he’s had a rehab start. Witt (148 wRC+, .219 ISO v LHP) is a top of the board bat. I’m using Maikel Garcia (91, .197) as a second base value play (Vlad at third). Fermin (156, .111) and/or Perez (113, .152) are viable here too. Diamondbacks pen estimators have improved to middling over the last 30 days. Virtually everyone except Perdomo (78, .059) seems employable from the Arizona side with Thomas (126, .262) a strong value play and Pederson (149, .221) far too cheap on FD. Walker, Marte, Suarez and Moreno all have a 140 or better wRC+ L30 days. The Royals have top third of the league pen estimators L30 days. Both pitchers can be run on, but both catchers mitigate that somewhat.
Update 5:15 EST: McCarthy in for Thomas and Garcia bats sixth for Royals with Hampson leading off. Might change my lineups. Also split one unit between KCR o4.5 (-105) and o4.5 F5 (-135).
Red Sox @ Rockies
Cooper Criswell’s 4.03 ERA is above, but within half a run of all estimators. His last outing, on the 12th of July, was his first to complete six innings and he did so with a single strikeout. A 13.9 K-BB% is still league average though and PitchingBot grades all three pitches he throws more than 15% of the time between 59 and 64. Ironically, they match up with the only three pitches Colorado has had some success against.
Opp wRC+: 82 (25.5 K%, 82 Road)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.21
Ty Blach’s last start came on June 20th with four relief outings of no more than 39 pitches since then. With just an 11.9 K% and 11.0% Barrels/BBE (those numbers should never be this close), estimators ranging from a 4.66 xFIP to a 6.25 xERA are both well below and above his 5.46 ERA. RHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while his 70 Stuff+ mark would be second worst among pitchers with more than 50 innings. PitchingBot is much more optimistic with a 4.22 Bot ERA that’s nearly league average, including two pitches exceeding a 50 grade.
Opp wRC+: 96 (29.1 K%, 112 Road)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.01
DFS Notes: Mid-80s with a light breeze in from right. The Red Sox (6.03) are the far and away top offense and against an even poorer LHP than last night, you want to jam as many RHBs into your lineup as possible again, but like yesterday, virtually everyone aside from Yoshida (51 wRC+, .122 ISO v LHP) is fine. Refsnyder (152, .171), O’Neill (188, .318) and Wong (153, .176) are extremely strong tonight. You can’t run much on Blach and the Colorado pen has graduated to medium bad L30 days, but who cares? Vodnik and Beeks have thrown three of four days since the break too. With Criswell’s reverse split (RHBs .352 wOBA, .312 xwOBA) this year, Doyle (112, .204) is my favorite Rockies bat. His 188 30 day wRC+ easily tops the projected lineup and he’s the top base runner too. The Red Sox still without Jansen in this series, have the third worst pen estimators L30 days. They were heavily worked in extras last night too.
Update 5:35 EST: McMahon out again (injury?), but Bryant returns from the IL for a visit.
Astros @ Athletics
Jake Bloss has gone exactly twice through the order in each of his two starts, totaling 7.2 innings with four runs allowed, striking out just six of 36, but with a league average 10.5 SwStr%. He’s allowed only seven hard hit batted balls (25%), just two of which were barrels. Projection systems still conglomerate around four and three-quarters runs per nine for the 50 Future Value grade prospect (Fangraphs). The curve and fastball grade 60 or better via PitchingBot so far with 100 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ scores.
Opp wRC+: 99 (26.1 K%, 111 Home)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.56
Only one of Osvaldo Bido’s seven appearances has been a start and it was his first, lasting just 2.2 innings. He’s had three longer relief outings since and has not allowed a single barrel with a 22.9% hard contact rate, but also a 13.9 BB%. A 2.83 xERA is well below his 3.44 ERA, which nearly matches a 3.68 FIP, but is well below remaining estimators all above five. His 103 Stuff+ mark drops to a 91 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 109 (19.1 K%, 97 Road)
DEF: -17.5
B30: 4.07
DFS Notes: Around 70 degrees with a light wind out to right. The Astros (4.5) are middle of the board with the A’s (4.0) closer to the bottom. I think Bloss’s workload kills his value, though has good stuff and some pedigree. No Bido. Two starts, LHBs have a .345 wOBA and .328 xwOBA against Bloss. He has a top third of the league pen behind him. Butler (131 wRC, .222 ISO v RHP, 218 wRC+ L30 days) maybe? Rooker exceeds all three of those numbers from the right-hand side. If the Astros didn’t agitate you enough last night, Alvarez (148, .252, 202) looks good here. The A’s have bottom third of the league pen estimators behind Bido and Miller threw and entire 11 pitches last night. Two straight for Erceg (38) though.
Angels @ Mariners
Jose Soriano utilizes a heavy sinker 42.6% of the time (1.6 RV/100, 52 PB grade) to generate a 60.2 GB% with just a 10.6 K-BB%. The ground balls keep his barrel rate reasonable (7.7%), despite a 44.1% hard contact rate. That’s it. That’s his game. All estimators are within half a run of his 3.71 ERA with only a 3.62 dERA below that mark.
Opp wRC+: 93 (28.8 K%)
DEF: -11
B30: 4.34
Logan Gilbert is coming off seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts and two hits against these Angels. He did not walk a batter and more impressively, his one barrel was also his only hard hit batted ball allowed (7.1%). Gilbert has 13 quality starts of more than six innings and while all estimators are above his 2.79 ERA (.225 BABIP), none reach three and a half. A 118 Stuff+ mark drops to a 104 Pitching+, while all PitchingBot grades exceed 55.
Opp wRC+: 91 (88 Road)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.71
DFS Notes: Open roof three-quarters of the time, we have an 85 average park run factor last three years, as opposed to 81 with it closed. Both teams sit below four runs with the Angels (3.04) second lowest on the board. Gilbert is my second overall arm tonight, but my top value among the top arms. He’s a workhorse in a great park in a strong matchup at a reasonable price. I have him in both my single entry lineups on either site. Not a single LAA bat of interest. Soriano generally lacks upside, but the Mariners give that too him. He’s fine in an SP2 spot for $600 more than Gray on DK. That said, RHBs have pounded him (.361 wOBA, .340 xwOBA). With Crawford’s injury, along with Julio, perhaps Robles (155 wRC+, .158 ISO v RHP, 229 wRC+ since joining Seattle) remains near the top of the order at an incredibly cheap price. The Angels have the seventh worst pen estimators in baseball behind Soriano. Estevez (25) and Castillo (28) have worked back to back. Munoz (22) has worked two straight and Stanek (40) two of three for Seattle, which may work in Gilbert’s favor.
Update 6:38 EST: Closing the day out, still waiting for three lineups. Seattle playing six LHBs and a much different lineup against Soriano's reverse split. Have a lean towards the under (7 -110 FD).
Giants @ Dodgers
Jordan Hicks utilizes a heavy sinker 50.7% of the time (-0.1 RV/100, 50 PB grade) to generate a 50.5 GB% with just an 11.5 K-BB%. Despite the ground balls, he’s still allowed 9.2% Barrels/BBE with a 43.6% hard contact rate. That’s it. That’s his game. See what I did there? More seriously, only 11 of his 26 barrels have left the park, surprisingly just three of 14 on the road. Estimators ranging from a 4.10 dERA to a 4.75 xERA are well above his 3.79 ERA. LHBs have a .342 wOBA and .381 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 117 (122 Home)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.58
Landon Knack owns a very respectable 16.3 K-BB%, but with 10.8% Barrels/BBE. The Dodgers have a knack for early hooks, having failed to complete five innings in four of his last five starts with no more than 20 batters faced in that span and only once exceeding 80 pitches. He (and the bullpen) has stranded 91.2% of runners with a .223 BABIP, so despite eight of 12 barrels leaving the park, all estimators are at least three-quarters of a run above his 3.23 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -5
B30: 4.46
DFS Notes: Low 70s with a near double digit wind out to center is hitting weather in Los Angeles. The Dodgers (4.89) are fourth from the top with the Giants middle-bottom (4.11) of the board. Hicks doesn’t have enough upside for this dangerous spot, especially considering his numbers against LHBs. Knack is not landing enough pitches for consideration. Ohtani (207 wRC+, .386 ISO v RHP) is barely behind Judge for my top overall bat tonight. Freeman (171, .230) is another great, but expensive option. Hurting other LHBs, you can’t run on this combo and the Giants have top third of the league estimators L30 days. While Statcast puts batters form either side within two points of a .315 wOBA and xwOBA against Knack, RHBs have a nearly 40 point higher wOBA. Ignoring that, Wade (142, .106) is the most viable Giant, while Bailey (127, .157) is of some interest behind the plate. The Dodgers have the second worst pen estimators L30 days and Hudson (38) has thrown three of the last four with Treinen (40) two of the last three.
Update 6:45 EST: Scheurwater leands slightly hitter friendly. Dodgers get a fifth LHB in against Hicks with Biggio. No SFG LU yet.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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