Second half (or nearly the last third) of the season is in full swing and I'm hoping to get back to a regular rhythm here, though there probably will be some missed days. To illustrate how much work this is, it takes me about a half hour to gather starting pitchers and set up. Then each game write up and first go through takes about 20 minutes per game, if I'm not shorting either pitchers, which I'll tend to do in a few spots when there are 15 games. That's still 5-6 hours work before we even get to the second go around, catching up on weather and what not for daily fantasy notes. It's easily a full time job at five days a week and sometimes upwards of 10 hours work in a single day.
Opened up with a couple of blown leads on Friday and another loss on a game where we beat the line by more than 5% (9-12 on the year on those). Made some back on the lone play from Saturday in which we lost more than 2% (3-2 on those). I want to say it's been an odd season, but it's been much like that since I started tracking line movement gains and losses (giving myself the worst possible line) about a year ago. I've got slightly over two months left to turn it around, although between that and the awful extra-innings luck, down 5.5 units isn't the end of the world. It could be easily made up in a week and break even is practically winning with some of the reward programs, boosts and bonuses these days, which I don't count.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Rays @ Yankees
Zack Littell completed six innings for the first time in six starts last time out after having three run quality starts in each of his preceding three starts. He strikes out batters at around a league average rate (21.4%) with pristine control (4.7 BB%) and a marginally average contact profile (9.0% Barrels/BBE, 39.7% hard hit rate). All estimators are within half a run of his 4.26 ERA without exceeding it by more than one-tenth of a run. The command allows an 82 Stuff+ mark to work up to a 99 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 120 (116 Home)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.99
Carlos Rodon has recorded one sixth inning out in his last six starts and has allowed 30 runs (29 earned) over those 27 innings, despite an 18.7 K-BB%. The Yankees are blaming the fastball. It’s not that it’s a bad pitch per se at all (49.6%, 0.6 RV/100, 63 PB grade), but they just think he throws too many of them, even after opponents have seen it several times. Rodon has allowed 10.5% Barrels/BBE overall, while batters have a .364 wOBA and .531 SLG against the fastball. The X stats are even worse. However, the times through the order splits don’t support that opponents are pounding him the second or third time through the order any harder than the first. Take that for what you will. A 4.62 ERA sits among a wide estimator range (3.92 SIERA – 4.99 dERA) with an extremely strong Stuff+ grade (123) dropping down to a 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 119
DEF: 16
B30: 3.31
Tigers @ Guardians
Four straight quality starts and seven or more strikeouts in five straight for Tarik Skubal, now posting a 26.2 K-BB% on the season with just a 32.1% hard hit rate. All estimators are above his 2.41 ERA without reaching three. His 104 Stuff+ works up to a 108 Pitching. The studs are the easy write ups. The Guardians actually have a slightly higher strikeout rate against LHP (22%), due entirely to the bottom half of the order.
Opp wRC+: 116 (112 Home)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.97
Carlos Carrasco has allowed just 11 runs (10 earned) over his last 27 innings with a 17.8 K-BB% and league average contact profile. In fact, he has an above average 15.1 K-BB% over his last 10 starts. Carrasco has averaged 92 mph on his fastball over his last 11 starts, as opposed to 90.6 mph over his first six. His season PitchingBot grade on the pitch is just 45 and only up to 48 since the start of May. Estimators ranging from a 4.22 xFIP to 4.85 xERA are a bit below the 5.02 ERA on the season.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.07
Update 3:55 EST: Only three LHBs for DET. CLE LU has 5 with at least a 21 K% v LHP this year. Hedges and Neol close to 40%. Skubal 7+ Ks in five straight. Played o6.5 (+122) at FD.
Cardinals @ Pirates
Over eight starts, Andre Pallante’s ground ball rate has only dropped to 57.6% (from above 60% in the bullpen) with a 12.4 K-BB% that’s actually an improvement on his season rate (10.1%). A 3.89 FIP/3.81 xFIP combination is also an improvement on his season rates. Pallante hasn’t altered his pitch usage or velocity in the transition. Just lots of contact on the ground and a 50 point reverse xwOBA split (160 points by actual wOBA).
Opp wRC+: 86 (24.2 K%, 84 Home)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.07
The Pirates pulled Mitch Keller after just 58 pitches and seven base runners last time out. He’s had a bit of a rough time in three of his last four starts, but did throw eight innings of two run ball against the Mets in his second to last before the break. With an 18.3 K-BB% and just 6.7% Barrels/BBE, Keller is an effective mid-rotation innings eater, rather than the Ace he was portrayed as before Skenes and Jones arrived. He’s produced five quality starts of more than six innings and less than three runs and failed to complete five innings for the first time all season last time out. His 3.46 ERA is about half a run below estimators ranging from a 3.79 FIP to a 4.10 dERA. The low barrel rate has led to just a 9.8 HR/FB.
Opp wRC+: 107 (95 Road)
DEF: -17
B30: 3.43
Pallante and Keller actually have very similar estimators, while the Cardinals have the better offense and defense, yet FD currently has them as a decent F5 dog (+126).
Update 3:15 EST: Pitcher leaning umpire (Blakney). Small gain (1.2%) on STL F5. Each lineup adds a RHB (fifth for both sides) to the bottom third of the lineup. Pallante reverse split. Keller really none.
Mets @ Marlins
David Peterson has authored a quality start in four of eight, but with a mere 6.9 K-BB% and 43.7% hard hit rate that pushes all of his estimators (4.22 dERA – 5.36 xERA) more than a run above his 3.09 ERA. While he’s generated 55.6% of his contact on the ground, he’s also stranded 83.1% of his runners. Statcast sees the issue being against RHBs, who have a .319 wOBA, but .365 xwOBA against him. Peterson’s 93 Stuff+ only works up to a 97 Pitching+ with a 4.62 Bot ERA, but his best pitch, a sinker (31.8%, 1.1 RV/100, 56 PB grade) matches up well with the Marlins (-0.6 wSI/C is fourth worst), though there’s not really a single pitch they actually excel against, while being atrocious against LHP in general.
Opp wRC+: 72 (84 Home)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.15
After three home runs (only two barrels), four walks and a single strikeout in Cincinnati last time out, Yonny Chirinos has a 5.76 ERA that’s above all estimators with only a 4.07 xERA more than a run below. He’s struck out just 17.9% of batters (10.2 K-BB%), but pitch modeling has some interesting takes, including a 114 Stuff+ mark and just a single below average pitch via PitchingBot (fastball 17.6%, -3.5 RV/100, 21 PB grade). Batters from either side of the plate have smoked Chirinos above a .380 wOBA, but below a .350 xwOBA. Some regression from a .363 BABIP is expected, while five of six barrels have left the park.
Opp wRC+: 109 (115 Road)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.09
Update 3:30 EST: Eight RHBs for Peterson. Stewart in for Vientos, who got banged up on Sunday. Helps having a fourth LHB against Chirinos too.
Reds @ Braves
Hunter Greene put his best stretch of the season together just before the break, throwing 17.2 innings of two run ball, striking out 23 of 67 batters with just six walks. With a 26.1 K-BB% over his last five starts, Greene is up to 17.8% on the season. There are still occasional issues with command, but he’s done wonders managing contact this season (5.1% Barrels/BBE, 33.8% hard hit rate), generating a 3.10 xERA that’s his only estimator below a 3.34 ERA with others rising as high as a 4.18 xFIP, the only one above four. Stuff+ (124) adores Greene, though the command drops him to a 103 Pitching+ with a 3.74 Bot ERA. PitchingBot actually sees the slider as just below average (49 grade), but gives the fastball (55.6%, 0.8 RV/100) a healthy 57 grade. Atlanta may have lost another bat in Albies on Sunday too.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.4 K%, 107)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.46
Reynaldo Lopez has thrown a quality start 10 times in 17 tries. Attempting to avoid overworking Lopez, the Braves have only let him exceed 93 pitches once in his last 14 starts, which may be keeping his 86.9 LOB% slow in regressing, while only six of his 22 barrels (8.6%) have left the park. The 15.8 K-BB% is impressive enough for non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.79 xFIP to a 4.24 xERA, but not a 1.88 ERA. Lopez’s pitch modeling is not as strong as Greene’s (95 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, 4.15 BotERA) with his slider (28.1%, 1.5 RV/100, 45 PB grade) his worst graded pitch too with none reaching 55.
Opp wRC+: 91 (25.6 K%)
DEF: -11
B30: 2.97
My weighted estimators have Greene the better pitcher by nearly one-third of a run, the major discrepancies being where Lopez’s FIP is half a urn better, while Greene has a more than full run xERA edge. There’s also the fact that Atlanta’s offensive edge is much smaller than in years past and their defense may be worse than Cincinnati’s. Not overall, but when including players expected to be on the field. I have the F5 (+130) with slightly more value, mostly because I actually see the Reds as very small F5 favorites. Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: A nine game Monday slate features a pair of domes, one almost always closed, the other usually open, and two potential rain spots, but otherwise near perfect baseball weather. The Red Sox top the field by more than a full run at Coors. Four more teams eclipse four and a half runs with only five below four. With the top pitchers all in difficult matchups, two of them in potential rain spots, we have some difficult decisions to make. Perhaps stacking right-handed Red Sox should be your top priority (in single entry at least).
We start in Atlanta where it’s below 80 degrees with a light breeze in from right field with some chance of a delay, though not currently enough to pull us off anything in this game, if we were interested in anything in the first place. Lopez is sufficiently priced at $9K or more. He’s priced on what he’s done, not the average pitcher we’d expect him to be going forward. He does have a favorable matchup though. Greene is my number three overall pitcher tonight and potentially a strong value. If ownership projections suggest players still fear the Braves, all the better. With some high strikeout rates, this is not a lineup we’re looking to avoid anymore. That said, Riley (127 wRC+, .203 ISO v RHP this season, 143 wRC+ L30 days), Ozuna (159, .300, 167) and Kelenic (111, .196, 96) are useful bats here. Greene has been slightly better against LHP, though batters from either side are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. The Braves have a 4.07 implied run total (middle of the board). This is a combination that can be run on. Both pens are top third of the league, the Braves with the second best pen estimators L30 days. The Reds are second from the bottom at 3.43 runs. Although Lopez doesn’t hold well, D’arnaud throws well. While batters from either side are below a .300 wOBA against Lopez, Statcast pushes both above a .300 xwOBA with LHBs quite a bit higher (.338). Elly (132, .256, 173) is my favorite bat here, but at a strong position tonight. India (116, .147, 194) is usable as well.
Update 4:10 EST: Nacho Alvarez is the Albies replacement and he bats second. Large 6.02% gain on CIN F5, which usually means dead meat. We'll see.
Phillies @ Twins
A .360 BABIP and 56.2% strand rate over his last four starts has seen Ranger Suarez allow 19 runs (17 earned) over his last 21.2 innings. He’s only struck out 17 of 103 batters with a 6.8 SwStr%, but generated 60.5% of his contact on the ground over this span. On the season (18.8 K-BB%, 5.1% Barrels/BBE, 53.6%), a 2.76 ERA is slightly below estimators ranging from a 3.04 FIP and xFIP to a 3.30 ERA. Over the last 30 days, those estimators are about a run higher. Considering it’s always been command (101 Pitching+) over stuff (83 Stuff+), Suarez can’t afford to miss his spots. While the Twins aren’t exactly the offense you want to run into as a slumping LHP, they’re also down a pair of key RHBs in the middle of their order again.
Opp wRC+: 122 (20 K%, 123 Home)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.77
With a 28.0 K-BB% and 33.3% hard contact rate, Bailey Ober has allowed just 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 33.1 innings. His swinging strike rate is up to 17.6% over this span. His 20.4 K-BB% on the season comes with 9.6% Barrels/BBE, though all estimators are below his 4.14 ERA, ranging as low as a 3.56 SIERA and only as high as a 3.97 dERA. As with Saurez, Ober is command (103 Pitching+) over stuff (90 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 8
B30: 3.17
No F5 line yet on this game, but I don’t think we’ll need one. These pitchers have mostly been moving in opposite directions and, as a result, I only have Suarez slightly ahead of Ober. With the Phillies back at full strength and Minnesota down Lewis and Correa, perhaps the offensive gap isn’t as larger here, but it’s hard to say the Twins are worse. The Philadelphia defense has been good. The Minnesota defense has been better. The Phillies have a good bullpen. The Twins have a better one. Home team +116.
DFS Notes: It just so happens that this is the other spot with rain potential. The risk slightly higher than Atlanta, though the game is currently expected to play fine. Temps below 80 here too with a slight breeze out to right center. Ober has been cruising and is my number two overall pitcher as well as a great value, despite the matchup. The Phillies can be pitched to and have just a 4.0 team total. Ober has a small reverse split (RHBs .324 wOBA, .303 xwOBA with LHBs just below .300). I don’t see any great values in the Philly lineup, but Harper (159 wRC+, .281 ISO v RHP) and Turner (160, .182) have been red hot ( > 180 wRC+ L30 days). The Twins have a top five pen behind Ober too. A struggling Suarez is adequately priced at $8.8K or higher in a tough matchup, despite the Twins having the same 4.0 team total. RHBs have a .264 wOBA and .286 xwOBA against Suarez this year. Margot (122, .144) might have some minor value at the top of the lineup, as well as Castro (166, .216). You’re not running on this combination though and the Phillies have an above average bullpen. Probably best to leave it alone.
Update 4:45 EST: Some bottom of the order change for both teams. Wilson in for Marsh. Total has increased half a run, Phillies slightly more than Twins, but still a 4.02% gain on MIN ML. Increasing rain concern.
White Sox @ Rangers
Eric Fedde has been getting it done for the White Sox (2.99 ERA) because he learned to strand 80% of his runners over in Japan. Realistically, his 3.53 FIP and even 3.96 SIERA were better than the White Sox could ever have hoped with a career high 15 K-BB%. The arsenal remains slightly below average (93 Stuff+), but he makes it work with good command (100 Pitching+, 3.97 Bot ERA). PitchingBot grades range from 45 to 53 and again, the White Sox would be thrilled with a league average pitcher here. What they’ve gotten has been slightly better, even if there is some regression coming.
Opp wRC+: 92 (20.3 K%, 96 Home)
DEF: -23
B30: 4.11
If Fedde is being served a dish of regression, then Michael Lorenzen is likely to be hit with the entire buffet. He’s the composer of a just a 5.6 K-BB% with 8.5% Barrels/BBE, resulting in a 3.52 ERA because he’s stranded 82% of runners with just a .224 BABIP. His best estimator is a 4.82 xERA. Right-handed batters exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him, the rare time where not having any left-handed batters will likely help the White Sox. Lorenzen’s 95 Stuff+ remains a 95 Pitching+ with a 5.05 Bot ERA and no pitch reaching a 50 Pitching Bot grade.
Opp wRC+: 75 (80 Road)
DEF: 22
B30: 4.28
Both of these pitchers have been worse than their actual results, but at least Fedde is somewhat close with respectable underlying numbers. The White Sox have a small edge on pen estimators over the last month too. Will take +138 here.
DFS Notes: Roof almost always closed, run factor is 104 via Statcast. While I believe both pitchers to be overvalued in general, with both costing around $7.5K on DraftKings, I’d actually side with Lorenzen as the better value, simply because of the matchup. The Rangers haven’t been good this year, but they don’t strike out. They still have the second highest team total on the board (4.86), which seems a bit high, with the White Sox third from the bottom (3.64). As mentioned, the reverse split should help the Sox here. Pham (96 wRC+, .078 ISO v RHP) and Robert (110, .262) are bats to consider here. The latter, the only projected starter above an 85 wRC+ (126) L30 days. Lorenzen is tough to run on, but the Rangers have bottom five bullpen estimators L30 days. LHBs have a .289 wOBA and .310 xwOBA against Fedde. Seager (148, .234) and Smith (138, .186) are attractive bats here. They also both exceed a 130 wRC+ L30 days, the only projected Rangers who can say that. Fedde is easy to run on, though Lee counters that somewhat. The White Sox have middling pen estimators over the last month.
Update 4:30 EST: Ingenious move by the White Sox to add a third and fourth LHB to the lineup against Lorenzen's reverse split. Eloy Jimenez is out. A 1.2% loss on the White Sox, which I no longer see much value in. Both team totals have decreased by about 1/4 run.
Brewers @ Cubs
Since failing to go beyond five innings in any of his first six major league starts, Tobias Myers has not only eclipsed that in six of his last seven, but has five quality starts to show for it. Unfortunately that and his 3.13 ERA are the product of an 84.1 LOB%, though a 14.6 K-BB% is perfectly competent, producing estimators from a 3.98 xERA to a 4.16 FIP. It’s all right there. League average pitcher. The Brewers would still be thrilled. A 91 Stuff+ mark that works up to only a 97 Pitching+ with a 4.35 Bot ERA says that pitch modeling is a bit less optimistic.
Opp wRC+: 98 (24.1 K%, 96 Home)
DEF: 16.5
B30: 4.4
I planted my flag on the Javier Assad strikeout regression hill fairly early and am pretty upset that I wasn’t able to take full advantage of him striking out NONE of his last 35 batters with a 3.0 SwStr%. Of course, I’ve been on the wrong end of his strikeout props several times this season. Even after that, he’s still holding a 3.43 K/SwStr this season, that latter at just 6.3%. Even with his actual 21.4 K% (and 9.2% Barrels/BBE), Assad can’t generate a single estimator not at least a full run above his 3.27 ERA. On top of all those called strike threes, he’s stranding 84.1% of his runners. With an 87 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+ and 4.97 Bot ERA, every single pitch grades below average via PitchingBot. Right-handed batters exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Assad this season.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: 4
B30: 3.40
DFS Notes: The weather is calm at Wrigley tonight with temps in the 70s and a less than five mph wind blowing in from left-center. Both the Brewers (4.35) and Cubs (4.15) sit middle of the board here. Assad may be the worst value on the board with his lack of swing and miss and RHBs pummeling him. Every projected Brewer exceeds a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year. Turang (.120), who’s likely leading off, and Frelick (.075) are the only two below a .150 ISO. The Cubs bullpen actually has the fourth best estimators in baseball over the last 30 days, but I’d probably still go over-weight on Milwaukee bats in multi-entry. On the other side, Myers is probably my favorite bottom half of the board value and my single-entry SP2 currently. Probably a necessity if I want to stack Red Sox. There are only three projected Cubs below a 24.8 K% v RHP this season. Myers does have some issues with LHBs (.330 wOBA, .323 xwOBA), potentially making Busch (127, .192) and Happ (126, .207) viable. Both have a 130+ wRC+ L30 days. The Milwaukee pen has the third worst pen estimators L30 days with their top guys heavily used over the weekend.
Update 6:15 EST: Mastrobuoni in for Morel. Slightly lowers strikeout rate.
Diamondbacks @ Royals
Yilber Diaz has struck out just seven of 45 batters with an 8.2 SwStr%. A strong effort against the Braves (in terms of missing bats) was followed by a pedestrian one against the Blue Jays, although he allowed just a single run in each start. Projection systems come to a consensus just above four and a half runs per nine against him, but early pitch modeling returns paint an even grimmer picture. A 79 grade on the stuff with a 43 PitchingBot grade on both the fastball and slider (90.6% of his pitches).
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.1 K%, 108 Home)
DEF: 19
B30: 4.02
Cleveland and Toronto are the only two offenses to prevent Cole Ragans from a quality start in his last 14 outings, while he’s allowed even three runs only one other time. Everything appears to be working with a K-BB up to 21.6% with just 6.4% Barrels/BBE. Skubal is the only other pitcher on Monday who comes close to Ragans’ 77.6 Z-Contact%. The home park benefits him with just eight of 19 barrels turning into home runs (though four of seven at home, so maybe not really), but all non-FIP estimators are within a quarter run of the 3.16 ERA, while a 109 Stuff+ score drops just a bit to a 104 Pitching+, along with a 3.66 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 117 (107 Road)
DEF: 19
B30: 3.59
DFS Notes: It’s 80 degrees with very little wind in Kansas City. The Royals are third form the top (4.7) with the Diamondbacks fourth from the bottom (3.8). As I said, top pitchers are in tough spots tonight and Ragans is no different, though he’s still the top arm on the board and my guy on either site tonight, despite just two projected Arizona bats above a 21.9 K% v LHP this year. RHBs have a .265 wOBA and .286 xwOBA against Ragans this year. Marte is so good against LHP (193 wRC+, .324 ISO) that he’s the only one off I’d still consider. He has a 160 wRC+ L30 days. The Royals have top quarter of the league pen estimators L30 days. Again, shortstop is strong tonight and Witt (163, .243) is a top bat. Diaz has a pretty large standard split in just two starts, but not something we can count on yet. The Arizona pen does have bottom third of the league estimators L30 days and was very heavily used over the weekend, so we can see why Kansas City stacks might be popular tonight, but Witt is the only real standout among them.
Red Sox @ Rockies
Did Tanner Houck right the ship in his last start before the break with six shutout innings against the A’s or was it just the opponent he was facing? He struck out six of 22 batters with a 10.7 SwStr%, bott his second highest mark in his last six starts. He also walked three, which makes it seven of his last 39 batters too. No matter which metrics you use, Houck is a bit fortunate that just five of his 18 barrels have turned into home runs, the major reason his 2.57 FIP matches his ERA 2.54 ERA, while all other estimators are at least half a run higher. Still, an 18.0 K-BB% with a 55.8 GB% and 5.5% Barrels/BBE are nothing to sneeze at. This is still a breakout season, even if those estimators are closer to four over the last month. Houck still has a 109 Stuff+ score, 107 Pitching+ and 3.22 Bot ERA with all pitch grades above 50.
Opp wRC+: 82 (25.4 K%, 83 Home)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.24
Austin Gomber doesn’t walk many (6.0%) and that’s about where the compliments end. A 10.1 K-BB% isn’t entirely useless, though 9.8% Barrels/BBE doesn’t help matters. A 4.61 ERA nearly matches a 4.65 SIERA, while all estimators are within one-third of a run of actual results. Gomber has just a 79 Stuff+ mark, but does work it up to a 97 Pitching+, while the fastball (41.1%, -0.7 RV/100, 45 PB grade) is his only below average pitch via PitchingBot, but it’s also his most frequently thrown one.
Opp wRC+: 95 (29.2 K%, 111 Road)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.98
Let’s take stock here. Houck is about a run better by my weighted estimators, but he’s also struggling, while the Red Sox are also the better offense and are also below average against LHP. I certainly have the Red Sox as favorites here, but when you combine the above with a large defensive disadvantage and smaller bullpen one over the last month, this line (+154) might be just a little too high.
DFS Notes: Close to 80 with a light breeze in from right-center. The Rockies are fifth from the top (4.57) and we already discussed the Red Sox being the clear top offense on the board. I think Houck is adequately priced. It’s not necessarily Coors that does that, but his own inefficiencies lately as well. He’s still done a good enough job that batters from either side are no higher than a .305 wOBA or xwOBA against him and RHBs have been the better side against him. That makes Doyle (111 wRC+, .204 ISO v RHP) the most interesting bat here. His 182 wRC+ L30 days is more than 60 points higher than the next best projected Rockie. He’s their best base runner as well. The Red Sox have bottom third pen estimators L30 days and Jansen is not with the team. Rodgers (67, .097) is probably the Colorado bat to avoid here, but you want some Colorado exposure in multi-entry. I see I failed to mention that RHBs are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Gomber this year. Should he play (back issues?), Refsnyder (154, .178) may be the top bat on the board and if he’s not, Tyler O’Neill (179, .321) might be. Wong (150, .149) is my top catcher and Romy Gonzalez (114, .157) is the value play here. With LHBs slightly above .300 against Gomber as well, Duran (91, .078) and Devers (76, .143) don’t need to be avoided here. Gonzalez and Wong are the only below average bats over the last month in this projected lineup, while this is a tough combination to run on, but a bottom half of the league pen last 30 days behind Gomber.
Update 5:20 EST: Both team totals drop slightly. McMahon and Diaz out. Only COL third and fourth hitters. Must have heard I was on them. Still gained 1.61%.
Astros @ Athletics
SpAghetti was pitching fairly well going into the break with a pair of quality starts (COL, TEX) over his last four starts and another strong five inning outing against the Twins. He’s been able to miss bats (25.4 K%, 11.6 SwStr%) and has only allowed multiple barrels in three of his starts. In fact, nine of his 17 barrels have come in those three outings. The problem is a 12% walk rate. Even still, his worst estimator, a 4.64 ERA is still a run below Arrighetti’s 5.63 ERA, due to a .344 BABIP and 11 of those 17 barrels leaving the park. Despite a 91 Stuff+ mark and 98 Pitching+, the cutter (19.7%, 1.1 RV/100, 68 PB grade) is the star of this show and a pitch he may want to consider throwing more often.
Opp wRC+: 98 (26.5 K%, 112 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.70
Hogan Harris finished up the first half walking five of 16 Phillies without a strikeout. It’s been seven starts since he posted a double digit swinging strike rate. With now just a 5.8 K-BB% and 8.9% Barrels/BBE, a 4.90 FIP is Harri’s only estimator below five and not more than a run and a half above his 3.40 ERA (five of 23 runs have been unearned). PitchingBot still likes the fastball (58.3%, -0.5 RV/100, 56 grade), but that’s not a Houston weakness. Harris also only has 86 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 108 (17.3 K%, 97 Road)
DEF: -16.5
B30: 4.18
The A’s may be undervalued at home against a pitcher who walks a lot of batters, but Harris is just bad. I can’t pull this trigger even if the numbers are asking me too. Oakland has been scolding the ball lately though and I will jump on the F5 over (4.5 -114).
DFS Notes: Low 70s with a light breeze out to left-center and the A’s have just hammed the ball in this park this season, yet they’re bottom five (3.89) on the board against a pitcher with some talent, who walks the park. The Astros are fourth from the top (4.61) and probably my favorite of the offenses between four and a half and five runs. There are enough strikeouts in this Oakland lineup that SpAgheti would probably be my second favorite sub-$8K arm behind Myers and a top third Houston pen L30 days probably further prohibits too many Oakland bats here, but this is a combination that can be run on and batters from either side are between a .318 and .345 wOBA and xwOBA against Arrighetti this season. The red hot Lawrence Butler (128 wRC+, .226 ISO v RHP, 206 wRC+ L30 days) is one of my favorite values on the board. Rooker (171, .261, 246) has been even hotter and destroying RHP this year. Batters from either side are above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Harris so far with LHBs (.398, .375) doing the most damage. Alvarez (177, .227, 203), Altuve (141, .152, 126) and Pena (108, .152, 124) are the bats I’m most looking to roster. Tough combo to run on, but Oakland has bottom third of the league estimators L30 days, though Miller hasn’t seen the mound since the break.
Angels @ Mariners
Tyler Anderson has 81 strikeouts and 12.3% of them came in a single start against the Cubs two starts back. He’s only even been above five in two other starts and those were in April. It’s not for lack of swings and misses. Nobody comes close to Anderson’s 1.44 K/SwStr. At least not on Monday. Peterson’s 1.72 K/SwStr is second lowest. Someone, with a just a 16.8 K% and 8.5% Barrels/BBE, Anderson has posted a 2.97 ERA that’s well more than a run below all estimators, the best of which is a 4.42 xERA. Another oddity here is that 26% of Anderson’s hard contact has come in barrels. There’s another outlier in his pitch modeling and that’s the changeup (36.6%, 1.8 RV/100, 61 PB grade). It’s an elite pitch among several other below average ones, cumulating in a 4.23 Bot ERA to go with 95 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ marks. The Mariners are the fourth worst offense against changeups (-0.65 wCH/C). They’re not particularly good against anything, but worse against changeups than most pitches.
Opp wRC+: 96 (26 K%, 91 Home)
DEF: -11
B30: 4.07
Six shutout innings against the Padres ended Bryce Miller’s first half, despite striking out just one of 21 batters. His first quality start in five starts and each of his last three quality starts have come with no runs allowed. There’s been some damage done in between though. Most of it on the road. Miller has a 16.0 K-BB% this season and that’s above average, but since last season, he has a 19.9 K-BB% at home with just an 8.6 HR/FB. Just four of his 16 barrels have turned into home runs at home with 11 of 17 leaving the yard on the road. At 10.8% Barrels/BBE overall this season, a 4.15 xERA is a small outlier to estimators otherwise ranging from a 3.89 dERA to a 3.97 SIERA. Miller is a real pitch modeling favorite with 110 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ scores. Both the fastball (61) and splitter (67) receive PitchingBot grades above 60, while the Angels are bottom third of the league against both pitches.
Opp wRC+: 91 (87 Road)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.72
DFS Notes: Roof is open around 75% of the time here, giving this park an 85 run factor on average, a slight bump from 81 with the roof closed last three years. The Mariners are middle of the board (4.24) witht eh Angels bringing up the bottom (3.26). I believe Miller to be slightly over-valued above $8K. The park is doing most of the work for a barrel prone pitcher and three of the first four projected Angels are below a 20 K% v RHP. The good news is that he has a pretty large split and the Angels project just three LHBs. Well, not good news if you’re looking to roster Angels, who I have very little interest in. Raleigh is one of the stronger throwing catchers and the Mariners have a solid pen. If I were ever going to consider Tyler Anderson, this spot for less than $8K on DK would be it. I have him a bit behind Myers and Arrighetti below that price point. With Julio potentially out (knee), Victor Robles (103 wRC+, .069 ISO v LHP, 234 wRC+ since joining Seattle) might be a top value play if near the top of the lineup. Batters from either side are below a .300 wOBA, but within two points of a .330 xwOBA against Anderson this year. I like Crawford (134, .170) as potentially the top value at a strong position. You can run on this combo and the Angels have bottom five pen estimators L30 days. I’d have some exposure, but not go nuts with Seattle bats. Raleigh, Garver and Moore exceed a 100 wRC+ with at least a .200 ISO v LHP this year.
Update 6:30 EST: Julio out. Clase in. Pitcher friendly Estabrook behind the plate.
Giants @ Dodgers
Blake Snell ended his disastrous first half with seven innings of one-hit ball against the Twins. He struck out eight of 21 batters and walked NONE! Is this it? Is he back? Snell’s 95.9 average velocity was his best game average of 2024. Starting at 95.1 mph, he’s crept up incrementally in six straight starts. A 10.8% walk rate and 8.2% Barrels/BBE aren’t even really that bad (for Snell), especially when combined with a strikeout rate that’s now up to 26.6% and growing with just a 34.7% hard contact rate. A 4.36 dERA is his only estimator above four. A 56% strand rate is absurd. Pitch modeling likes Snell’s stuff (115 Stuff+) and the command is coming around (101 Pitching+) All three pitches Snell has thrown more than 15% of the time receives a PithcingBot grade of 63 or higher.
Opp wRC+: 125 (18.4 K%, 121 Home)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.62
Nearly 26 year-old River Ryan is expect to make his debut. The second ranked prospect in the organization (Fangraphs) holds a 55 Future Value grade with three potentially plus pitches (fastball, curveball, cutter) and very little experience above AA (23.1 IP). Ryan started as a two way player and began the season on the IL with shoulder fatigue, making just eight minor league starts this year at three different levels. He faced more than 16 batters in just one of them. Ryan has struck out 32 of 95 batters faced this year though. Projection systems have him a bit above four and a half, which seems a bit pessimistic.
Opp wRC+: 97 (97 Road)
DEF: -6
B30: 4.47
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with perhaps the strongest wind of the day (near 10 mph) blowing out to center. My default with an unknown, and it’s probably wrong, is to avoid in daily fantasy, outside extreme circumstances. We don’t have that here and we know the Dodgers like to protect their young arms, which they’d done with Ryan in the minors. I don’t expect him to pitch deep enough to far exceed his $7K price against a marginal offense against RHP. The Dodgers do have the second worst pen estimators in baseball L30 days. Wade (138, .108), Bailey (123 wRC+, .159 ISO), Ramos (105, .160), Conforto (100, .196) and Yaz (116, .207) are your top bats here. Do what you will. RHBs have a .325 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against Snell this year. Has he finally turned it around? Kike and Taylor are the only projected Dodgers below a 110 wRC+ or .150 ISO v LHP this year. Ohtani (146, .207) and Smith (146, .207) are the top bats here. The Dodgers have a 4.45 team run total, the Giants at 4.05. Snell is one of the easiest pitchers to run on, but Bailey may be the toughest catcher. The Giants have a top third of the league pen last 30 days.
Update 6:35 EST: Lux in for Rojas adds third LHB. Fitzgerald in for Estrada.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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