This might be the most ridiculous thing I've posted all season. Two full games. Six pitchers. One game plus two pitchers are copy and pastes from Friday. Two pitchers were pushed back and one game was postponed.
Otherwise, I promise I went through all 15 (I guess 16 now, though we don't know pitching orders in Atlanta for Saturday, which may have stopped us from having more games), but could only find one I was interested. It just so happened to be the first one. Placeholders are left in case something pops up on Saturday.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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Rays @ Yankees
Taj Bradley has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 12 starts, including seven straight. His 21.9 K-BB% is tied for 10th most among pitchers with at least 60 innings since he made his debut in May. He won’t continue to strand 82.5% of runners, but still has a pretty healthy estimator range (3.20 dERA – 3.87 xERA). PitchingBot and Stuff+ aren’t in agreement with the former projecting a 4.51 Bot ERA, the latter 115 Stuff+ and 103 Pithcing+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 120 (116 Home)
DEF: 2
B30: 4.05
The Rays knocked Nestor Cortes around in his last start, putting up five runs in just 4.1 innings. His Home (24.1 K-BB%)/Road (13.2 K-BB%) splits are stark this year, but can’t remain that wide. He’s also faced a lot of his weakest opposition at home. He’s gone beyond 5.1 innings in just four of his last 10. Cortes has a larger estimator range than Bradley, the strangest part being a 3.46 xERA that’s his only one below a 3.67 ERA, despite 8.7% Barrels/BBE and a 44.4% hard hit rate.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: 15
B30: 3.78
White I do have the Rays as dogs here, I see it a lot closer than their current price of +134 on FanDuel. I think Bradley may be the slightly better pitcher, while the offensive gap is not as large as you’d imagine because the Rays have smashed LHP. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Cardinals @ Braves
Sonny Gray’s 24.3 K-BB% is fifth best among qualified pitchers with his 3.34 ERA just about perfectly matching his 3.33 xERA at 8% Barrels/BBE with a 39% hard hit rate with all other estimators below three. Gray has stranded just 64.7% of his runners and 17.7% of his runners have been unearned, which means the discrepancy could be even worse. Gray throws five pitches between 15% and 23% of the time with only the curveball (49) receiving a PitchingBot grade below 60 to go along with 108 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ scores. While LHBs are more than 100 points (wOBA) better against Gray this year, Statcast drops that to a 31 point split that’s still somewhat substantial, though far less outrageous.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.3 K%, 107 Home)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.22
With all estimators below four, Spencer Swellenbach has pitched better than his 4.43 ERA, stranding just 67.5% of runners with a 16.6 K-BB% and just four barrels allowed (4.0%) through seven starts. Like Gray, Schwellenbach throws five pitches between 13% and 24% of the time, all of them exceeding PitchingBot grades of 50 with his 96 Stuff+ mark working up to a 107 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 107 (94 Road)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 2.87
Update 3:30 EST: Although I played STL +112 last night (viewable on Action Network), when there was no F5 line. I would now prefer -106 F5 to STL +102 full game.
Tigers @ Blue Jays
Angels @ Athletics
Mets @ Marlins
Phillies @ Pirates
Reds @ Nationals
Orioles @ Rangers
Padres @ Guardians
White Sox @ Royals
Brewers @ Twins
Diamondbacks @ Cubs
Zac Gallen returned from a month long IL stay throwing nearly two mph harder, striking out seven of 19 A’s. Throwing even harder in the next start, he struck out four of 19 Dodgers. He dipped back down to only a mph harder than his season average and then half a mph above his season average each of the last two times out, striking out just five of 44 Braves and Blue Jays, allowing 12 runs with a 51.4% hard hit rate. On the season (17.4 K-BB%), all estimators are within half a run of his 3.87 ERA, but he’s taken a strange route to get there. Who is he and is he healthy right now?
Opp wRC+: 99 (24.1 K%)
DEF: 20
B30: 4.11
Red Sox @ Dodgers
Cardinals @ Braves
Giants @ Rockies
In his last start before the break, Logan Webb struck out just four batters for the first time since April. His 11.4 K-BB% since May has been 17.6% since, generating ground balls at a 56.1% clip that’s just below his season rate (57.6%). The K-BB increase was much needed, even with the heavy ground ball rate because half of Webb’s contact has been at a 95 mph EV or higher both before May and since. He does pitch in San Francisco, so just six of his 31 barrels have turned into home runs, which gives him a FIP below three (2.79), an xERA above four (4.24) with all other estimators within half a run of his 3.47 ERA. Because of the new balanced schedule, Webb hasn’t pitched in Coors yet this year.
Opp wRC+: 80 (25.6 K%)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 3.63
Astros @ Mariners
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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