This isn't really the fan friendliest league in the world. After nearly a week off, MLB.com still hasn't told us half of Friday's starters as of Thursday evening. I'm relying on Fangraphs Roster Resource for a lot of Friday's starters, which may or may not be accurate. If they are, we may have DFS notes on Friday. Probably not if I have to make too many adjustments though. All stats were downloaded on Tuesday (7/16).
Update 12:45 EST: Only two pitchers have changed (Nelson for Gallen, Harrison for Webb), but we still have four TBD on MLB.com. No daily fantasy notes today.
Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Diamondbacks @ Cubs
Zac Gallen returned from a month long IL stay throwing nearly two mph harder, striking out seven of 19 A’s. Throwing even harder in the next start, he struck out four of 19 Dodgers. He dipped back down to only a mph harder than his season average and then half a mph above his season average each of the last two times out, striking out just five of 44 Braves and Blue Jays, allowing 12 runs with a 51.4% hard hit rate. On the season (17.4 K-BB%), all estimators are within half a run of his 3.87 ERA, but he’s taken a strange route to get there. Who is he and is he healthy right now?
Opp wRC+: 99 (24.1 K%)
DEF: 20
B30: 4.11
Seven straight quality starts for Justin Steele, more than six innings in five of them. Up to an 18.3 K-BB% with just 5.8% Barrels/BBE, his 2.85 xERA is in line with a 2.71 ERA, but all other estimators are more than half a run higher. His strand rate has now crossed the 70% barrier, but the BABIP is down to .238. Quite the turnaround. The Arizona offense is pretty extreme in that they absolutely excel against some pitches, but are awful against others. Steele’s biggest advantage could be in throwing sliders (29.2%, -0.1 RV/100, 61 PB grade) at the D’Backs (-0.91 wSL/C is third worst), as they are the top offense against fastballs and pretty damn good against LHP too.
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.86
Phillies @ Pirates
Last five starts before the break, 31.2 inning and just 11 runs against Aaron Nola. He also struck out 26 of 74 Marlins, Braves and Dodgers over his last three. It doesn’t make sense that he did this by upping his four-seam fastball usage, but it might when you realize he’s been throwing a mph harder of these last three starts. Well, actually, last four (93.4 mph vs 92.3 mph on the season). Nola is up to an 18.8 K-BB%, allowing just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. His 3.38 ERA is within half a run of all estimators and within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. Seventeen of his 20 barrels have flown out of the park, 11 home runs on just nine barrels at home. Yes, that certainly means Pittsburgh will be a park upgrade for him. Nola also matches up well arsenal-wise against a that is second worst in the league against sinkers (-0.96 wSI/C) and third worst against curveballs (-0.66 wCU/C), when those two pitches make up over half of his usage and both receive PitchingBot grades exceeding 60.
Opp wRC+: 86 (24.2 K%, 86 Home)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.61
Even with 7.1 innings of one run ball in St Louis (87.5% strand rate, 7.7 K%), Martin Perez has allowed 12 runs over 16 innings since returning from the IL. Allowing 9.1% Barrels/BBE with a single digit K-BB%, batters from either side of the plate are exceeding a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Perez this year with a 4.43 xFIP his only estimator above five. A 71 Stuff+ grade is one of the worst marks in the league. Only Chris Flexen (later) has thrown more than 70 innings with a lower score. Some of Perez’s worst pitches also match up with ones that the Phillies have smoked, but that’s also mostly because the Phillies have smoked everything and nearly all of Perez’s pitches have been below average.
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: -15.5
B30: 3.56
Let’s start the second half by having a go with the Phillies (-135). Don’t have a F5 line yet, which may have been of use with bullpens having similar estimators over the last 30 days, even with Aroldis Chapman walking everyone in the park. We don’t even have confirmation on Pittsburgh’s starting pitcher yet. However, the only one I would fear here would be Skenes and I’m pretty confident that’s not happening. Nola hit the break peaking, while the visiting Phils have massive defensive and offenses edges too (I can’t believe I said the first part either). Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 4:05 EST: Nice 5.31% gain on PHI. Added 1/2 unit plays on Perez u3.5 Ks (+130). Four swings and misses last 199 pitches. And PHI o4.5 (-115).
Reds @ Nationals
The oddest thing about the profile of Frankie Montas is that he’s induced 16 popups, along with the 22 barrels he’s allowed (8.7%), despite a 43.7 Z-O-Swing% that’s worst on the board today. With just a 9.4 K-BB%, all estimators are more than a quarter run above his 4.38 ERA, though only the dERA (5.10) reaches above five. Pitch modeling is a bit more optimistic with 99 Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks, while all PitchingBot grades reside between 46 and 52. Montas does have more than a 100 point wOBA and xwOBA split (not something you normally see from a pitcher emphasizing a splitter), but it’s also not something the Nationals are set up to exploit.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -8
B30: 3.46
With a 15.9 K% and 9.8% Barrels/BBE, contact neutral estimators may not believe Patrick Corbin deserves his 5.57 ERA, but a 6.29 xERA sure speaks differently. It obviously makes sense that a bunch of teams would want to open the second half with some of the worst Stuff+ grades in the league, as Corbin’s 77 mark is worst among all qualified pitchers and third worst among those with more than 70 innings pitch and all three are potentially pitching on Friday. While Corbin has a near 50 point wOBA split, Statcast pushes both sides above a .380 xwOBA this year.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -17
B30: 3.69
Rays @ Yankees
Zach Eflin has retained all the precision of previous years and even improved upon it with this season’s absurd 2.2% walk rate, but there’s been a decline in pure stuff from last year, represented in his 18.9 K% and 94 Stuff+ mark, which works up to a 104 Pitching+ with location added back in. The results have been kind of hit or miss, striking out at least six with only one walk in four of his last five starts, including the Yankees last time out. With 6.8% Barrels/BBE and a 35.7% hard hit rate, Eflin’s 3.24 xERA is his only estimator outside of one-third of a run of his 3.99 ERA with all estimators being below that mark. (Christ, was that last sentence English? I’m only four games in.)
Opp wRC+: 120 (11 K-BB%, 15.9 HR/FB)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.05
It’s been a slow process and brutal five game schedule (BAL 2x, NYM, BOS, TOR) for Gerrit Cole, but he does seem to be rounding back into form. The velocity has increased with each start, up to 96.4 mph last time out (still just slightly below last year’s 96.7 mph), while the swinging strike rate is up to 12.6% over his last three starts after being in single digits in each of his first two starts. Cole’s 110 Stuff+ and 101 Pithcing+ grades are below last year’s marks (121 and 109), but let’s see where he is after another few starts and facing more average offenses.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 15
B30: 3.78
Both pitchers throw curveballs exceeding a 55 PitchingBot grade around one-fifth of the time and both offenses are bottom half of the league against curveballs. More an interesting nugget than anything all that useful.
Tigers @ Blue Jays
Jack Flaherty failed to exceed a 93.5 mph average velocity in just three of his first 10 starts, but now also each of his last six, over which his 24.2 K-BB% is still elite, but well below his 29.6% mark over the first 10. The good news is that he was up to 93.4 mph in each of his last two starts and the break should help his ailing back a bit further with more than a full week of rest. With 14 of 17 barrels leaving the park, a 3.17 FIP is perfectly in line with a 3.13 ERA, all other estimators being below three and dropping as low as a 2.50 xFIP.
Opp wRC+: 99 (20 K%, 20 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.93
Walking eight of his last 51 batters before the break, Chris Bassitt is now the author of a slightly below average 11.7 K-BB%. Counter to Flaherty, just eight of Bassitt’s 23 barrels have been home runs, the result being a 4.24 xFIP and SIERA being his best non-FIP estimators against a 3.52 ERA. Bassitt throws a lot of different pitches, but none of them seem to be able to get LHBs out (.350 wOBA, .375 xwOBA this year).
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 17.5
B30: 4.66
Update 4:45 EST: This line has moved too far in favor of Toronto. DET F5 (+112). Even with back concerns over the last month, Flaherty's 3.40 SIERA and .306 xwOBA are far better than Bassitt's 4.38 and .326. Four of F6 in DET LU are LHBs, so that means 8 of F15 Bassit faces will be LHBs.
Padres @ Guardians
Matt Waldron is more complicated than your average knuckleballer because even when that isn’t working, he has a more standard repertoire to fall back on, which also may or may not be working. Strikeouts have been volatile on a start to start basis, but he’s gone at least six innings in eight of his last nine and seven innings in four of them, allowing more than three runs just three times, but also each of his last three starts. Pitch modeling does knuckleballers no justice, while they sometimes break estimators too, but Waldron’s run between a 3.79 xERA, which nearly matches his 3.71 ERA, and 4.48 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 101 (18.8 K%, 115 Home)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.81
A 28.4 K% and 6.2 BB% that nearly matches the 6.8% Barrels/BBE that Tanner Bibee has allowed, generate estimators ranging from a 3.27 SIERA to a 3.54 dERA, which are all a bit below his 3.77 ERA (a 67.6 LOB% over his last seven starts isn’t helping). At least six innings in eight of his last 10 starts as well with 102 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 116 (18.1 K%)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.11
Mets @ Marlins
Since his disastrous London start against the Phillies (which was really just a disastrous inning), Sean Manaea has allowed nine runs (eight earned) over 35.2 innings with a 15.1 K-BB% (14% season) and just 5.8% Barrels/BBE (8.1% season). There’s been no real pitch mix alterations, but he is throwing more than a mile per hour harder than his previous season average. On the season, just nine of his 21 barrels have left the yard. Non-FIP estimators (4.15 xERA – 4.54 dERA) are more than two-thirds of a run above his 3.46 ERA, though he has actually been pitching better lately. Sometimes the skills improve before the results regress. Manaea’s Stuff+ mark has only increased to 87 since London (86 overall) with his 93 Pitching+ representing a decline.
Opp wRC+: 70 (6.0 BB%, 6.9 HR/FB)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.19
Edward Cabrera misses a ton of bats (32.1 K%, 13.4 SwStr%), but also walks far too many (11.5%), while getting smashed on contact (15.3% Barrels/BBE). This, despite a 23.7 Z-O-Swing%. The Marlins have held him below 85 pitches and two times through the lineup in each of his two starts back. He allowed four home runs in Cincinnati last time out. All contact neutral estimators are below three and a half with contact inclusive ones above five. The fastball is a real mess (24.3%, -5.2 RV/100, 32 PB grade) and could be a point of contention against the Mets (0.46 wFA/C is third best in the league). Cabrera’s 101 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ marks are surprising, as I’d expect the first to be higher and the second lower.
Opp wRC+: 109 (116 Road)
DEF: -11.5
B30: 3.07
Cardinals @ Braves
Sonny Gray’s 24.3 K-BB% is fifth best among qualified pitchers with his 3.34 ERA just about perfectly matching his 3.33 xERA at 8% Barrels/BBE with a 39% hard hit rate with all other estimators below three. Gray has stranded just 64.7% of his runners and 17.7% of his runners have been unearned, which means the discrepancy could be even worse. Gray throws five pitches between 15% and 23% of the time with only the curveball (49) receiving a PitchingBot grade below 60 to go along with 108 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ scores. While LHBs are more than 100 points (wOBA) better against Gray this year, Statcast drops that to a 31 point split that’s still somewhat substantial, though far less outrageous.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.3 K%, 107 Home)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.22
With all estimators below four, Spencer Swellenbach has pitched better than his 4.43 ERA, stranding just 67.5% of runners with a 16.6 K-BB% and just four barrels allowed (4.0%) through seven starts. Like Gray, Schwellenbach throws five pitches between 13% and 24% of the time, all of them exceeding PitchingBot grades of 50 with his 96 Stuff+ mark working up to a 107 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 107 (94 Road)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 2.87
Update 3:30 EST: Although I played STL +112 last night (viewable on Action Network), when there was no F5 line. I would now prefer -106 F5 to STL +102 full game.
Orioles @ Rangers
An 18.0 K-BB% and 117 Stuff+ (108 Pitching+) are great numbers for most pitchers. For Corbin Burnes, they represent a stark reduction from career numbers like a 24.4 K-BB% and 130 Stuff+. Burnes still excels at contact management (6.2% Barrels/BBE, 30.9% hard contact rate), but even a 3.00 xERA (his best estimators) is more than half a run above a 2.43 ERA. Taking advantage of an 82.2 LOB%, Burnes has gone at least six innings in 14 straight starts. He’s been remarkably consistent, striking out either five or six in 13 of his 19 starts overall and last 17.
Opp wRC+: 93 (20 K%)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.98
Jon Gray has been shelled for 23 runs over his last 23 innings, striking out just 10 of 105 batters with a 6.7 SwStr% over that span. He throws a 45 grade fastball (PitchingBot) and 46 grade slider more than 40% of the time each. Left-handed batters have a .373 wOBA and .363 xwOBA against him. Even right-handed batters have a .247 wOBA, but now .320 xwOBA. This is a terrible matchup for Gray, who’s non-FIP estimators (eight home runs, 24 barrels) all exceed his 4.01 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 115 (20.5 K%, 117 Road)
DEF: 22
B30: 3.79
White Sox @ Royals
You’ve read it mentioned several times above. Chris Flexen’s 51 Stuff+ score is 20 points worse than any other pitcher with at least 70 innings pitched and few are worse than his 93 Pitching+ too. Flexen actually has four quality starts over his last five, three with two runs or less, but his 7.9 K-BB% over this span is even worse than his 8.4% mark. He manages contact well (35.5% hard hit rate), but all estimators remain within one-third of a run of his 4.82 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.1 K%, 108 Home)
DEF: -21.5
B30: 3.99
Michael Wacha may not have elite stuff (91 Stuff+), but he certainly does have one elite pitch and he throws his changeup a lot (32.2%, 1.5 RV/100, 77 PB grade). I could tell you that the White Sox are worst in the league against changeups (-1.54 wCH/C), but they’re just worst in the league. However, to illustrate the gap, the Diamondbacks are next worst against changeups at -0.95 wCH/C. Wacha’s 13.7 K-BB% is perfectly league average. He’s allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE, but just a 33.8% hard contact rate. Allowing just nine home runs on 22 barrels, a 3.73 FIP is not only his best estimator, nearly matching a 3.83 ERA, it’s his only estimator below four.
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: 18.5
B30: 3.74
Giants @ Rockies
In his last start before the break, Logan Webb struck out just four batters for the first time since April. His 11.4 K-BB% since May has been 17.6% since, generating ground balls at a 56.1% clip that’s just below his season rate (57.6%). The K-BB increase was much needed, even with the heavy ground ball rate because half of Webb’s contact has been at a 95 mph EV or higher both before May and since. He does pitch in San Francisco, so just six of his 31 barrels have turned into home runs, which gives him a FIP below three (2.79), an xERA above four (4.24) with all other estimators within half a run of his 3.47 ERA. Because of the new balanced schedule, Webb hasn’t pitched in Coors yet this year.
Opp wRC+: 80 (25.6 K%)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 3.63
For a while there, Cal Quantrill had convinced people there was something interesting going on. He ran a 2.39 ERA with eight quality starts over an 11 start span. It must be the split finger (34%, 1.2 RV/100, 48 PB grade). Since then, he has allowed 18 runs in 23.1 innings with an 11.9 K-BB% that’s actually better than his 8.2% during that 11 start run. Even with just 6.1% Barrels/BBE on the season, all estimators exceed his 4.13 ERA with batters from either side exceeding a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 9
B30: 4.37
Angels @ Athletics
I was surprised to learn that Griffin Canning had as many as five quality starts in his last 13 because he’s only had a double digit K-BB% in four of them and only been above 11.5% twice. His 7.6 K-BB% on the season comes with a somewhat average contact profile, producing non-FIP estimators (18 home runs, 27 barrels) all within one-fifth of a run of his 4.84 ERA with none that are lower than that though. Canning’s pitch metrics include a 55 grade changeup, which he throws 27.2% of the time, but nothing else reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade to go along with an 86 Stuff+ mark (97 Pitching+). Left-handed batters exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, but that’s not really an exploitable point for Oakland.
Opp wRC+: 96 (26.7 K%, 107 Home)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.03
At one point, J.P. Sears had struck out exactly one batter in three straight starts against the Padres and then Twins twice. He followed that up by striking out 20 of 67 Angels, Diamondbacks and Red Sox going into the break. He’s actually struck out two or fewer in eight of his 19 starts this year, but also six or more seven times. The 17.6 K% and 10.2 K-BB% are uneven and volatile, while we can say the same for his 9.9% Barrels/BBE. Sears has generated 25 of his 31 barrels in nine of his 19 starts. The result is all estimators above a 4.50 ERA, but only a 5.59 dERA more than half a run outside his 4.56 ERA. You could end up with an eight strikeout quality start, but you could also end up with a more barrels than Ks.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -17.5
B30: 4.19
Red Sox @ Dodgers
The Pivetta Stone is another cool sounding matchup. Nick Pivetta went into the break striking out 20 of his last 51 batters. True, they were A’s and Marlins, but he’d struck out only 17 of his previous 91 against the Phillies, Blue Jays, Reds and Padres. He’s struck out eight or more in half (seven) of his 14 starts and five or fewer in his other seven (and only five once). Oakland and Atlanta have one start on each side of that ledger. The interesting thing about those last two starts was that Pivetta basically cut his cutter out almost completely (2.1%), going almost purely fastball (42.3%, 67 PB grade)/sweeper (37.6%, 56 PB grade) with some curveballs (18%, 60 PB grade) mixed in. Considering the cutter earns just a 44 PB grade, perhaps giving it the boot is the right idea. Among those with more than 70 innings pitched, Stuff+ believes Pivetta to be the baddest man in baseball (136), nine points better than Jared Jones. They are each tied for the best Pitching+ mark at 109. With a 22.1 K-BB%, but 10.1% Barrels/BBE, all estimators are at least one-third of a run below Pivetta’s 4.18 ERA, but there’s a lot of start to start variance there.
Opp wRC+: 116 (121 Home)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.96
Gavin Stone finished up his first half with eight runs over 7.2 innings, striking out just six of his last 40 batters. Looked to as the staff savior due to all the injuries and his 3.26 ERA, Stone success is built more upon his contact profile (4.8% Barrels/BBE, 34.4% hard contact rate) than his 12.0 K-BB%. Even then, his 3.77 ERA is half a run above that ERA with other non-FIP estimators even higher. Pitch modeling paints a somewhat similar picture, portraying Stone as an average pitcher with PitchingBot grades between 46 and 55 on everything he throws more than five percent of the time with a 4.20 Bot ERA and a 98 Stuff+ mark working up to a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 108 (111 Road)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.53
The Dodger offensive edge is not significant here and it happens to be their only edge with my weighted estimators holding Pivetta half a run better than Stone. Pivetta (+120) is volatile, but if he’s on, the Dodgers could be in for a long (or short depending on your point of view) night.
Update 6:30 EST: BOS now +110, makes it all three games gaining more than 2%. Also, with hitter friendly weather, a hitter friendly umpire could make over 8 a consideration. Umpire not listed for some reason yet.
Astros @ Mariners
Over his last 55 innings, Hunter Brown has allowed just 14 runs with a 21.4 K-BB% and half of those runs were surrendered to the red hots Twins two starts before the break. That run actually started with six shutout innings of four hit ball with nine strikeouts against the Mariners. In fact, Minnesota also represents the only other time Brown has allowed more than two runs over these nine starts. Yes, 10 of his 14 runs over this span belong to the Twins. Up to a 15.9 K-BB% with a 31.8% hard hit rate (5.1% Barrels/BBE), Brown has allowed exactly as many home runs (14) as barrels. Non-FIP estimators are all more than half a run below his 4.39 ERA with PitchingBot grades between 49 and 56 for five of his six pitches with a 4.27 Bot ERA, 104 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 94 (28.9 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.63
Pretty impressive that Luis Castillo struck out eight of 23 Blue Jays in his second to last start before the break, but it’s the only time he’s struck out more than five in his last five starts and ties his highest strikeout total since April. The velocity is down nearly a mph from last season and the strikeouts are down nearly three points, resulting in a 17.1 K-BB% that’s exactly a point below his career average, but 1.5 points below his previous five years. In addition, LHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Castillo, which may be a point of strength for him against Houston, as RHBs are below .270. Castillo has very similar pitch modeling numbers to Brown with PitchingBot grading all four pitches between 48 and 56 with a 4.05 Bot ERA, 102 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 110 (18.8 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.95
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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