Didn't have enough confirmed starting pitchers to write about Friday. Had enough tonight and filled up about 40% of the slate and left place holders in case there's more time on Saturday.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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Red Sox @ Yankees
Astros @ Twins
Hunter Brown has increased his sinker usage to 25% over his last five starts and that seems to be what everybody is talking about, but it’s actually the other pitch he’s utilizing more over that span (cutter 22.7%) that owns the much higher run value (4.85 wFC/C). The PitchingBot grade on the sinker over that span is 52, but 57 for the cutter. Brown has allowed one run over 31 innings with a 20 K-BB% over these five starts. Now up to a 16.1 K-BB% on the season, non-FIP estimators (12 home runs, 12 barrels, 31.5% hard contact rate) range from a 3.33 xERA to a 3.78 SIERA, all more than a quarter of a run below his 4.07 ERA. Stuff+ and Pithcing+ marks are up to 104 and 102 respectively. Now, an addendum to the previous, written before his last start and updated for results. Brown has utilized his cutter just 13.5% of the time in his last two starts against the Rockies and Blue Jays, walking six of 46 batters.
Opp wRC+: 108 (121 Home)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.73
These Astros represent the only outing all season where Joe Ryan failed to record at least one sixth inning out. He’s even completed seven innings in five of his last 10. A 23.1 K-BB% limits the damage on 9.6% Barrels/BBE. Ryan’s 3.21 ERA is an exactly match for his SIERA with all estimators within one-quarter of a run. All PitchingBot grades above 55 with a 2.56 Bot ERA and 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 113 (18.6 K%, 98 Road)
DEF: 11
B30: 3.54
Brown was unsustainable bad to start the season, now unsustainably good in June. I have Ryan the superior pitcher by somewhere between one-third and one-half run. While Houston does have the five point edge in wRC+ v RHP, Minnesota is 23 points better Home/Road. Decent defensive edge and small bullpen one. I think we’re getting the Twinskies too cheap her (-116). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Angels @ Cubs
No pitcher can evade regression forever and it’s now 15 runs over 28 innings for Tyler Anderson, a 1.6 K-BB% over that span dropping his season rate to a paltry 4.6%. A 4.78 xERA is the closest estimator to his 3.03 ERA, even with just a 33.4% hard contact rate. He still has the changeup (36.6%, 1.7 RV/100, 60 PB grade), but no other pitch grading above 47. Batters from either side of the plate have a .342 xwOBA against him this year.
Opp wRC+: 94 (102 Home)
DEF: -11
B30: 4.49
The Brewers smashed Kyle Hendricks for seven runs with both barrels (13.3%) leaving the park. He’s allowed just 14 barrels all year (6.8%) and 13 of them have gone out. Considering his 31.4% hard contact rate and 6.6 BB%, even a 16.9 K% has all estimators more than two and a half runs below his 7.48 ERA. In addition to 19.7% of his fly balls leaving the yard, Hendricks is stranding just 56% of his runners. He hasn’t been good, but his estimators are far better than Anderson. His pitch modeling is too. A 56 PitchingBot grade for both his sinker (35.4%, -3 RV/100) and changeup (39.8%, -1.4 RV/100) to go along with a 102 Pitching+ score.
Opp wRC+: 92 (91)
DEF: -7
B30: 4.07
It’s hard laying a heavy price with Hendricks (-142), put by every metric except for ERA, he’s been the better pitcher. In fact, there’s no LAA edge here. The Cubs have the better bad offense, better bad defense and better bad bullpen.
Mets @ Pirates
Cardinals @ Nationals
Was shocked to see Lance Lynn’s fastball as the most valuable pitch in baseball from a counting standpoint, it’s 14 RV/100 is tops and is strong even from a 2.1 RV/100 and has an above average 53 PitchingBot grade. I also think a lot of that is the big park in St Louis. His rate of Barrels/BBE has only decreased from 10.4% last year to 9.2% this year. True, his ground ball rate has increased from 35.6% to 40.3% and that helps too, but his HR/FB has been cut in half (19% to 10.2%). Lynn has legitimately been better over the last month with an 18.9 K-BB% that increases his season rate to 13.9%, but also a 50% hard hit rate over that span. It’s not a surprise to see Lynn’s 3.89 FIP and 4.44 xERA bookend his estimators, though with seven unearned runs, his ERA is just 3.59. That fastball is his top graded pitch and Pitch Modeling is not otherwise in his corner with an 84 Stuff+ mark that only works up to a 94 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 94 (20.7 K%)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.98
At least seven strikeouts in eight of MaKenzie Gore’s last 12 starts has him up to 27.2% on the season with a 19.8 K-BB%, complemented by allowing just 6.4% Barrels/BBE with a 35.9% hard hit rate. These numbers produce contact neutral estimators like a 3.47 SIERA and 3.49 xFIP that match his 3.47 ERA with a 2.99 FIP,, but 3.76 xERA. Let’s just say three and a half and call it a day? But pitch modeling likes him even more (3.46 Bot ERA, 115 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+) and speaking of fastballs? Gore’s is elite (54.7%, 0.7 RV/100, 67 PB grade) and he’s facing the third worst offense against fastballs (-0.63 wFA/C) on Saturday.
Opp wRC+: 77 (19.7 K%, 7.0 HR/FB)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.52
St Louis’s lack of power against LHP has just been astounding and despite what run values say, I’d wager that Gore has the superior fastball in a vacuum. (How do fastballs work in vacuums?) I have Gore half a run better than Lynn at this point in their respective careers and while I don’t think the wRC+ is really 17 points here, James Wood may make the Nationals (-125) a near league average offense. Only edge for the Card is defense and it’s not like they’ve been good at that either.
Rays @ Rangers
Orioles @ Athletics
Tigers @ Reds
Giants @ Guardians
Kyle Harrison’s 3.96 ERA and FIP are below additional estimators because he pitches a lot of his games in San Francisco and just nine of his 24 barrels (10.2%) have left the park. With a 13.9 K-BB%, they run as high as a 4.60 dERA. The problem is…well, he doesn’t really have a good pitch. The fastball is okay (1 RV/10, 53 PB grade), but he throws it 62.5% of the time with all other pitchers below average by both run value and pitch grade, resulting in a 4.56 Bot ERA, 90 Stuff+ and 94 Pithcing+.
Opp wRC+: 119 (114 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.42
Logan Allen’s 5.75 ERA matches his 5.63 FIP too with 18 of his 30 barrels (11.4%) leaving the park. The difference is that he has just a 9.9 K-BB% with RHBs torching Allen for a .398 wOBA and .389 xwOBA this year. His 78 Stuff+ mark only works up to a 92 Pitching+ with a 4.78 Bot ERA and no PitchingBot grade exceeding 47.
Opp wRC+: 119 (139 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.86
It’s hard to say that Kyle Harrison is the better pitcher here, so I’ll just say that Logan Allen has been far worse. By like nearly a run. For example, Harrison’s 4.60 dERA is his worst estimator. Allen’s 4.60 SIERA is his best. Teams have the same exactly wRC+ against LHP and even though the Giants have the better bullpen estimators over the last month by nearly half a run, the gap starts to close after the starters enter, so I’ll take the slightly better F5 price (+112).
Blue Jays @ Mariners
White Sox @ Marlins
Phillies @ Braves
Brewers @ Dodgers
After struggling with his command for too long this season, Freddy Peralta finally appears to be back on track, allowing just three runs over his last 18 innings with a 23.2 K-BB% and just a single barrel. Peralta’s problem has been 9.2% Barrels/BBE on the season, despite just a 36.4% hard contact rate with 25.9% of that hard contact being those barrels. Yet, he still has estimators ranging from a 3.16 dERA to a 3.54 FIP all more than a quarter run better than his 3.83 ERA. Peralta has a 107 Stuff+ mark this year, which works down to a 103 Pitching+. He can miss bats with the best of them, but has flaws in other areas.
Opp wRC+: 117 (120 Home)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.06
At least five runs in three of James Paxton’s last seven outings. A total of two combined in the other four. Only twice going past five innings though. Only three times completing five. Just a 4.6% K-BB% and 8.2% Barrels/BBE. You generally don’t want that second number to be higher than the first (or even anywhere near it). Paxton is somehow still running a 4.28 ERA more than half a run below all of his estimators and he’s doing it throwing some of the worst pitches in the league (73 Stuff+, 90 Pitching+, 5.05 Bot ERA). He’s a two pitch pitcher and neither exceeds a 45 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 95 (104 Road)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.25
How the hell am I getting even money on the Brewers F5?
Royals @ Rockies
Diamondbacks @ Padres
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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