I opted to waste some time on Tuesday night with such foolishness as eating a healthy dinner and breathing. Not to mention the 15 minutes I spent unsuccessfully searching for starters for Arizona and Baltimore. Thus, a bit less lengthy today and four more to go. I'll also be away in the afternoon for a vet appointment. Not for me, but the dog isn't old enough to drive yet.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Cardinals @ Pirates
Remember when Miles Mikolas ran off five straight quality starts and dropped his hard hit rate below 40%? Well, 14 runs over his last 10.1 innings with just four strikeouts and three walks. Back up to a 40.5% hard contact rate with all estimators above four.
Opp wRC+: 81 (25 K%, 81 Home, 87 L7days)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.79
Jared Jones first nine starts: 27.2 K-BB%
Jared Jones last six starts: 8.3 K-BB%
With 10% Barrels/BBE and a 44.1% hard hit rate, he’s going to need more of the former than the latter. His 3.66 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators, but I’m not sure he should be evaluated that way right now.
Opp wRC+: 104 (90 Road, 76 L7 days)
DEF: -20
B30: 4.02
White Sox @ Guardians
Erik Fedde’s string of three straight quality starts was snapped by the Dodgers. His 8.5 SwStr% barely supports a 22 K% (lg avg 16.5 CStr%). Estimators from 3.42 (dERA) to 3.78 (SIERA) may rise a bit. He has about a 20 point natural split with LHBs near league average against him. The Guardians can line up with seven or eight.
Opp wRC+: 104 (19 K%, 115 Home)
DEF: 16.5
B30: 3.44
A 12.8 K-BB% in 82 innings for Gavin Williams last year. A 22.4 K-BB% in five AAA rehab starts (12 IP). He’s projected a bit better than last year, as a league average arm this year.
Opp wRC+: 76 (78 Road)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.91 (Shocking CWS are better here)
Red Sox @ Marlins
A pair of disappointing pitchers here, but at least Brayan Bello has decent peripherals (3.97 xFIP – 4.38 xERA among non-FIP estimators) and pitch modeling (104 Stuff+ & Pitching+, slider & sinker > 55 PB grade). LHBs have smoked him for a .383 wOBA and the .337 xwOBA that drops to isn’t great either.
Opp wRC+: 82 (86 Home)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.72
Three straight quality starts for Trevor Rogers, but a 9.0 K-BB% and eight barrels (13.3%) over that span. His best estimator is a 4.49 xFIP and an 84 Stuff+ grade only works up to a 97 Pitching+, including a 39 grade slider (21.4%, -2.1 RV/100) from PitchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 106 (28.1 K%, 113 Road)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.39
Mets @ Nationals
Christian Scott’s return to the minors wasn’t expected to last long, but it went the entire month of July. He averaged estimators slightly below four with a 58 grade fastball (52%, 0 RV/100) and 101 Stuff+ (100 Pitching+) through five starts. He has a 26.2 K-BB% in 42.1 AAA innings.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 0
B30: 3.46
With just eight of 19 barrels leaving the park, Mitchell Parker has been able to turn a perfectly average 14 K-BB% into a 3.32 ERA and 3.60 FIP with additional estimators hovering around four.
Opp wRC+: 123 (125 Home, 165 L7 days)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.52
Reds @ Yankees
Andrew Abbott followed up his shocking 10 strikeout performance in Boston with six walks and just two strikeouts in St Louis. He allowed two runs in both. What he does well is limit hard contact. His 31.7% rate is only below Wheeler and Sale today, resulting in a 3.48 xERA that matches his 3.41 ERA. We also have to pay attention to every other estimator being more than a run higher with a 10.7 K-BB%, while his 33.5 GB% is probably not much more dangerous here than it is in Cincinnati. Abbott has a below average 91 Stuff+ mark too (95 Pitching+, 4.60 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 106 (9.9 K-BB%, 121 Home, 127 L7 days)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.35
Absolutely counter to his opponent, Carlos Rodon has great stuff (according to pitch modeling) with 121 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+ and 64 PB fastball grades, resulting in a 16.4 K-BB%, but poor contact management (10.6% Barrels/BBE). Rodon has a 4.62 xERA which isn’t much higher than his 4.42 ERA, which is within half a run of all estimators since allowing 20 runs (six home runs, nine barrels) over his last 13.2 innings. RHBs have a .345 wOBA and .347 xwOBA against him this season and there’s a chance he could face nine.
Opp wRC+: 98 (10.6 K-BB%, 96 Road)
DEF: 14
B30: 4.34
I’m not fully buying into contact management here. It’s less predictive than strikeouts and walks. I still have Rodon as the superior pitcher, though by less than half a run and we also have the Yankees in their lesser split with the Reds in their better one with a pair of LHPs. Lastly, the kicker, the Cincinnati bullpen has pen estimators a full run better than the Yankees last 30 days. We’re talking sixth worst vs third best. Reds +160 worth a shot. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: It’s the same 11 game slate as Tuesday with less eventful weather. With winds counteracting temperatures in most parks, there’s only one or two spots where the weather should assist batters by more than a few percentage points and virtually no real rain risk.
The Dodgers and Twins are the pair of non-Coors teams reaching five implied runs with the Brewers more than a full run ahead of the field. Only two more above four and a half with one more team before six at exactly 4.25 implied runs and the rest of the field below four. I think the most difficult part of building lineups tonight is the many unknown pitchers we have on the mound.
We start in the mid-70s with a double digit wind blowing in from around the right field pole in the Bronx. The Yankees (4.88) are fifth on the board with the Reds (3.63) fourth from the bottom. Can you afford Judge (242 wRC+, .431 ISO v RHP this year, .277 L30 days)? I can’t with my choice of pitching. RHBs have a .327 wOBA, .303 xwOBA against Abbott this year. LHBs are below .275, which likely makes Soto (185, .244, 167) a more marginal value. I actually like J.D. Davis (113, .179, 120) here for near the minimum. These are the only three projected Yankees above a 95 wRC+ over the last 30 days. If Stephenson is back, this is a great combo to run on, but the Reds have the fourth best bullpen estimators in the league L30 days. I don’t hate Rodon here. Even if the Reds are better against LHP, there should still be enough Ks here for him, although I’m counting five below 20% against LHP this year with two unknowns. That said, we quoted Rodon’s issues with RHBs above, while the Yankees have bottom five pen estimators over the last 30 days and had Luke Weaver throw 30 pitches last night. India (139, .123, 185), De La Cruz (122, .163, 168), Steer (143, .235, 109) and Stephenson (102, .200, 87) are all bats of interest against one of the easiest combos to run on in the league.
Astros @ Blue Jays
Ronel Blanco allowed a trio of home runs to the Mets last time out and has allowed 12.3% Barrels/BBE over his last 10 starts and also walked nine of his last 78 batters. A lot of people think he’s good because of a .183 BABIP and 86.7 LOB%, but his 13.1 K-BB% is league average. Despite the increase in barrels, Blanco still has a 34.3% hard hit rate this year, thus a 3.55 xERA that’s still more than a run above his 2.49 ERA and well below his next best estimator, a 4.15 dERA. But he knows how to pitch. Hmm…98 Pitching+ and 4.33 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.9 K%, 100 Road, 129 L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.97
Thirteen runs over Yusei Kikuchi’s last 11 innings, but with 17 strikeouts and just two walks. Really it was just a bad last inning against the Yankees last time out. He had a 16.7 SwStr% and 33.3% hard hit rate in that start. Kikuchi has averaged 96.4 mph in three of his last four starts, his highest velocities of the year. Despite the 10% Barrels/BBE, I’m buying on the 19.2 K-BB% with all estimators below his 4.18 ERA and none exceeding four. His pitch modeling his far superior to Blanco as well (111 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+, 2.88 Bot ERA), including PitchingBot grades of 65 or better on his curveball and heater.
Opp wRC+: 110 (16.5 K%, 97 Road, 119 L7 days)
DEF: 16.5
B30: 4.10
When both of these pitchers are healthy and pitching to the best of their abilities, Kikuchi is the far more skilled hurler. Offense and bullpens are close enough with a significant defensive edge, that I believe the home team should be more heavily favored (-106).
DFS Notes: IstheDomeOpen waited until 6:38 EST to tell us the roof was open last night. It has been most days over the last month, increasing the run environment from 98 to 102 on average (depending on weather, of course). The slightly larger benefit is for right-handed power increasing from a 99 HR factor to 113. Both teams at 4.25 implied runs. You already know how I feel about Blanco and this is a low floor spot for him. I’m fine with Kikuchi. Tough spot, but he’s only $8K. I have hima bit behind the top spot three tonight and in line with Rodon above, among the top five or six. LHBs have a .279 wOBA, but .339 xwOBA against Blanco. Horwitz (183 wRC+, .211 ISO v RHP this year, 168 L30 days) is my favorite bat here. Diaz has a poor arm behind the plate and both teams have bullpens hanging around the bottom third of the league L30 days, while Green (30) and Pearson (51) have worked two of three and Richards (25) two in a row. LHBs have a .261 wOBA, but .320 xwOBA against Kikuchi this season, which makes Alvarez (164, .196, 204) stand out. Vlad, Turner, Altuve, Clement and Diaz also exceed a 140 wRC+ L30 days.
Giants @ Braves
Jordan Hicks has great stuff (107 Stuff+), but uses it more to generate ground balls (51.6%) with occasional strikeouts (20.9 K%, 10.4 SwStr%) and get double plays to make his way out of jams (9.1 BB%). Estimators ranging from a 4.05 xFIP to a 4.47 xERA are well above his 3.38 ERA though and he’s recorded just one sixth inning out since the end of April. He has a substantial split this year (43 points by wOBA, nearly 100 by xwOBA), but the Braves don’t have enough LHBs to exploit that in full.
Opp wRC+: 95 (109 Home, 77 L7 days)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.65
Chris Sale may be the leading Cy Young contender. He’s gone seven innings with two runs or less in three of his last four and seven of his last 11. A 27.7 K-BB% and 31.1% hard hit rate (5.8% Barrels/BBE), all of his estimators are below his 2.79 ERA (though not by much). Amazingly, his 105 Stuff+ grade is two points lower than Hicks.
Opp wRC+: 121 (20.4 K%, 102 Road, 123 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.18
Yup, massive edge for Sale, despite Hicks somehow having the better Stuff+ grade, but in addition to the significant edge for the Giants on defense, they may be the better offense this year. I think there’s a lot of value in this big dog (+170).
DFS Notes: Near 90 with a light wind (5 mph) in from center. Yes, I think the Giants are underpriced and yes, I’m also playing Sale in both singe entry lineups in DFS. He’s the top pitcher on an otherwise marginal board and it’s not particularly close. The Giants are at a board low 3.13 implied runs with the Braves near the middle at 4.38. Jarred Kelenic (129 wRC+, .204 ISO v RHP this season, 144 wRC+ L30 days) is one of just four Braves (Ozuna, Murphy, Riley) either above a 91 wRC+ vs RHP this season or above a 94 wRC+ L30 days. This is why I like the Giants tonight, but Kelenic is still one of my favorite outfield values. Though, note that Hicks is very difficult to run on, especially with Bailey behind the plate, while the Giants have top quarter of the league pen estimators L30 days. I also still have to mention Ramos here (279, .447, 174). Sale can be run on, Murphy not so much and Atlanta has the second best pen estimators L30 days. Every projected Giant exceeds a 100 wRC+ L30 days with only Ahmed below 120.
Padres @ Rangers
Pitch modeling grades of 98 Stuff+ and 96 Pithcing+ tell a more optimistic story about Adam Mazur’s first five starts than actual results and that’s saying something. He’s failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in a start yet (-5.8 K-BB%), but has allowed just a pair of barrels with a 32% hard hit rate. A 5.07 xERA is his best estimator by more than a run, while LHBs exceed a .410 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 90 (19.7 K%, 94 Home, 110 L7 days)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.89
Jon Gray throws both his slider and fastball more than 40% of the time and both receive exactly 46 PitchingBot grades, along with an 83 Stuff+ mark. He’s also struck out just nine of 78 batters since returning from the IL (8.2 SwStr%) and has been battered for eight runs or more by both the Orioles and Mets over his last three starts. Now up to 9.8% Barrels/BBE, but only seven of his 23 barrels leaving the park, all non-FIP estimators exceed his 3.77 ERA. LHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 123 (18.2 K%, 108 Road, 152 L7 days)
DEF: 14.5
B30: 3.90
The play that screams out to me here is o4.5 F5 (-130).
DFS Notes: Assuming the roof closed generates a 102 park run factor here. The Rangers at 4.56 implied runs and Padres at 3.94. I believe the latter is undervalued, though Gray is just $6.5K, about where he should be priced in this spot probably. Mazur may be the worst value on the board. Cronenworth (142 wRC+, .225 ISO v RHP this year, 110 L30 days), Arraez (127, .089, 76) Merrill (152, .176, 180) and Profar (148, .146, 134) are strong plays against Gray, who, along with Heim, can be run on. Lowe (112, .154, 129), Seager (137, .214, 87), if back, and Smith (139, .168, 160) are top plays for Texas, who are better played as a stack with Mazur’s walk issues. A pair of marginal pens over the last 30 days are both well rested.
Phillies @ Cubs
Like anyone, Zach Wheeler has the occasional blowup game, even against a team like the Marlins, but generally, he’s as steady as they get. Eight starts of at least seven innings with two runs or less. With a 19.3 K-BB% and 31.5% hard contact rate, his worst estimator is a 3.55 dERA with a 2.98 xERA his closest to a 2.77 ERA. Wheeler has a 106 Stuff+ score, 108 Pitching+, 2.98 Bot ERA and PitchingBot grades of 64 or better on his four-seamer, sinker and sweeper.
Opp wRC+: 96 (24.6 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 2.97
Shota Imanaga first nine starts: 23.4 K-BB%, 7.0% Barrels/BBE
Shota Imanaga last six starts: 15.1 K-BB%, 13.1% Barrels/BBE
Hmm…what started happening around the end of May?
Opp wRC+: 117 (109 Road, 99 L7 days)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.36
DFS Notes: Around 80 degrees with a light (5 mph) wind in from around the right field pole area. Both teams at 3.75 implied runs. I fixed an error above, where I had read Wheeler’s line for Kikuchi. Wheeler and Gilbert are a bit behind Sale for me tonight. I think he’s adequately priced around $10K, but still perfectly fine in a decent spot with some upside. I just believe Sale has more. I actually think Imanaga may be slightly over-priced at this point and have him as a top seven arm, somewhere in line with Stone and close to Kikuchi and Rodon. No real interest in Chicago bats. Although LHBs have a .301 wOBA and .312 xwOBA against Wheeler this year, he’s very difficult to run on and the Phillies have the top pen in baseball L30 days. On the other hand, Imanaga/Amaya can be run on, while the Cubs have the sixth worst bullpen estimators L30 days. With RHBs just barely below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Imanaga, I like Turner (147 wRC+, .125 ISO v LHP this year). He has a 160 wRC+ since returning. I also think Sosa (181, .302) has value.
Rays @ Royals
Suggested by 118 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ grades, Ryan Pepiot can do a pretty good Tyler Glasnow impression when he’s commanding the ball. The problem is that he doesn’t always consistently do so. He has a 20 K-BB%, but it can improve on that by lowering his 8.7 BB%. He’s allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE, but 10 of his 18 have come in just four starts. That said, with 11 of 18 barrels leaving the park, non-FIP estimators are 3.50 SIERA to a 3.94 dERA are well below his 4.40 ERA with just a 70.1 LOB%. Perhaps he loses his mechanics with men on base, but that can be fixed. Better things should be ahead for him. LHBs are more than 50 points of wOBA and xwOBA than RHBs against him this year, but that’s not really a Kansas City lineup strength.
Opp wRC+: 96 (19.5 K%, 111 Home, 117 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.86
You get a changeup. And you get a changeup. And YOU get a changeup! It’s changeups for everyone when Michael Wacha pitches. And why not with an elite 78 PitchingBot grade (32.7%, 1.5 RV/100). It may be one of the best pitches in baseball. A bit of discrepancy between a 99 Pitching+ mark and 3.15 Bot ERA, but Wacha has allowed just one-third of his contact at a 95 mph exit velocity or worse with a league average 13.5 K-BB%, resulting in all estimators within half a run of his 3.91 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 16
B30: 4.11
DFS Notes: Just below 80 with a light (5 mph) wind in from right field. Both teams a 4.25 implied runs. I’m favoring Wacha a bit more than some unknowns in an SP2 spot (think he’s okay on FD too) and have him potentially as high as the fourth or fifth best arm on the board, along with that Kikuchi/Rodon group. Pepiot is a highly volatile fine SP2 arm also if you want to embrace risk against a contact prone offense in a positive run environment with near neutral weather. Seven projected Rays exceed a 22 K% v RHP this year. Lowes, Brandon (118 wRC+, .240 ISO v RHP this year) and Josh (107, .192) are still bats of interest here. LHBs have a .335 wOBA and .313 xwOBA against Wacha despite the elite changeup. You can’t run on he and Perez, but the Kansas City pen has bottom third of the league estimators L30 days. LHBs have a .331 wOBA, .332 xwOBA against Pepiot, but he’s tough to run on with a marginal pen behind him. Witt (148, .237) and Pasquantino (112, .203) are worth shots here, though RHBs are below .275 against Pepiot. Witt is simply matchup proof at this point.
Tigers @ Twins
Keider Montero worked behind an opener in his second major league outing. He’s struck out 11 of 39 (14.4 SwStr%) with four walks and three barrels (12.5%). Nearly 24 years old (in a few days), Montero carries a 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) with an above average fastball, but average at best secondaries and poor command. Montero has a 10.7 K-BB% at AAA. He was Detroit’s 22nd ranked prospect (again, Fangraphs) back in January, projected eventually as a reliever, due to his lack of an above average arsenal, aside from the fastball. Projections call for something slightly above four and a quarter.
Opp wRC+: 106 (118 Home)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.73
All via Fangraphs, 24 year-old right-hander David Festa is the fourth best prospect in the Minnesota organization and 93rd best overall with a 50 Future Value grade. He’s a slider first pitcher, sometimes even throwing his changeup more often than his fastball with projected upside of a mid-rotation starter. Speaking of projections, averaging barely north of four isn’t bad at all, while he’s posted a 23.4 K-BB% over 59.2 AAA innings this year. He struck out just two of 23 Diamondbacks in a five inning, five run debut.
Opp wRC+: 88 (24.2 K%, 82 Road, 43 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.73
DFS Notes: It’s around 80 with a near double digit wind out to center. If not for this and a really tough matchup, Montero would be of some interest here. If I had to pick an unknown today, it probably would be Festa for $6.7K, although he looked awful in his first start. Lewis was injured again last night, which is a shame. The Tigers are at 3.93 runs with the Twins third from the top (5.07). Both of these pens hover near the top third mark over the last 30 days. Greene (151 wRC+, .234 ISO v RHP this year) is the only projected Tiger exceeding a 95 wRC+ L30 days (145) and one of two above 72. Perez (94, .130) and Vierling (111, .227) are cheap enough to maybe be worth a shot too. Depending on who replaces Lewis, Kepler is the only projected Twin below a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year and just by two points. He, Jeffers and Larnach are below an 85 wRC+ L30 days. Everyone else is above at 150 or higher. Everyone is above a .150 ISO v RHP this season. Castro (114, .156), Correa (148, .181) and Miranda (159, .220) are some of my favorites here. Brieske (26 yesterday) and Duran (47 3 of L5) may have limited availability.
Brewers @ Rockies
Colin Rea struck out a season high eight of 22 Cubs last time out, following up on striking out none of the 23 Padres he faced. Let’s be honest though. His 3.61 ERA is a complete fluke, based on an 80% strand rate and .253 BABIP. He’s struck out just 16.8% of batters (7.4 SwStr%) with 9.5% Barrels/BBE and doesn’t have an estimator below 4.60 (xFIP). His 85 Stuff+ mark only works up to a 96 Pitching+, while his only above average PitchingBot grade is a curveball (57) that he throws less than five percent of the time. LHBs have a .347 wOBA and .393 xwOBA against Rea this year.
Opp wRC+: 79 (25.5 K%, 85 Home, 52 L7 days) (incl. Tue from here on)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.25
Only 25% of Dakota Hudson’s starts have been of the quality variety, while he’s allowed at least three runs in 75% of them (not all earned). With a 52.9 GB%, he’s limited barrels to 5.8% of contact, despite a 42% hard hit rate, but with just a 0.3 K-BB%, his best estimators are still just a 5.28 xFIP and FIP. His 83 Stuff+ mark works up to just a 91 Pitching+ with only his curveball (15.8%, 44 PB grade) reaching a 40 PitchingBot grade. Batters from either side have at least a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: 8.5
B30: 4.45
DFS Notes: Low to mid 80s with a double digit wind in from near the right field pole. As mentioned, Brewers at 6.48 lap the field with the Rockies (5.02) fourth best. Absolutely no interest in pitching. Can you afford Brewers? I could, a few. All projected exceed a 100 wRC+ v RHP this season. Only Turang and Frelick below a .150 ISO, but the former has been batting leadoff and is a top bat on this slate, along with Yelich (159, .175) and Contreras (121, .163). In fact, other than Will Smith, I can't find any other catcher I’d consider nearly as strong as Contreras and no great values either. He’s the one guy I’m most interested in paying up for. The only issue is that you can’t run on Hudson, but who needs to? The Rockies have the third worst pen estimators L30 days. Virtually everyone in it has been heavily worked over the last several days too. Two in a row for Megill (31) and 36 for Hudson yesterday, while the Brewers also have bottom third of the league estimators L30 days. Rea can be run on, in addition to LHBs smoking him. Blackmon (86, .156), McMahon (99, .179), Doyle (97, .167) and Toglia (69, .225) are enhanced here. RHBs are at .278 and .316 against Rea.
Angels @ Athletics
Davis Daniel threw 12.1 major league innings over three long relief appearances in 2023 with as many walks as strikeouts. The 27 year-old 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs), 16th ranked prospect for the Angels has been delayed by injuries projects to be a swing man of some type. In 76 innings at AAA, he has a respectable 16.9 K-BB%. Of course, he struck out eight of 26 Tigers in his season debut, shutting them out on four hits without a walk and just a single barrel over eight innings. Projection systems still have him a bit above four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 92 (26.9 K%, 103 Home)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.41
Joey Estes struck out a career high eight of 23 Angels last time out after striking out just a single one of the 24 Twins he faced in his previous start (that’s 12 sets of Twins). Just two quality starts, but 14 of his 27 runs have come in just two of his nine starts, while 13 of his 14 barrels have come in five starts. He has just a single start where he’s allowed one barrel. Feast or famine. With a league average 13.8 K-BB%, but just 20.4 GB% (only 29 through nine starts), a 4.32 xERA is still his best estimator, despite 9.9% Barrels/BBE. Pitch modeling is a fan. Sort of. His 99 Stuff+ works up to a 107 Pitching+, while Estes receives a 68 PitchingBot grade on his slider (15.5%) or is it his sweeper (16.5%)? LHBs have a .391 wOBA and .387 xwOBA against him with RHBs below .300, but I’m not sure the Angels can really exploit that…hence the eight strikeouts last time out.
Opp wRC+: 94 (94 Road, 120 L7 days)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 4.83
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind out to RF. A’s and Angels both at 4.25 runs. Both of these pitchers shined last time out, but have enough flaws that I’m not much interested in either one of them here. Daniel’s ridiculous performance against an awful offense jacked his price up. Estes is just so bad against LHBs. He and Langeliers appear a difficult combo to run on, the other side much easier, while we’re dealing with a pair of bottom five pen estimators L30 days here. I’m not sure what to do with A’s bats here, which means doing nothing in single entry. Rengifo (120 wRC+, .121 ISO v RHP this year), Schanuel (93, .116) and Calhoun (111, .141) and virtually any LHB in the top half of the lineup are of interested against Estes. Miller threw 24 pitches last night, which may knock him out for a week.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
This could be Cristian Mena making his major league debut. The 21 year-old has a 40+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs), recently anointed as the 10th best prospect in the Arizona system with a back end of the rotation projection. Major projection systems have him a bit above four and a quarter runs per nine. A 14.0 K-BB% in 16 starts (82.2 IP) at AAA.
Opp wRC+: 118 (122 Home)
DEF: 17.5
B30: 4.84
Four hit shutout of the White Sox with seven strikeouts for Gavin Stone last time out. An 18.7 K-BB% over his last six starts has brought his season rate up to 12.5%. He’s also allowed just three of his 13 barrels this season over this span (nine barrels in the preceding five starts). Even with estimators now ranging from a 3.34 FIP to a 4.24 SIERA, Stone is running well below that with a 2.73 ERA with a 6.3 HR/FB and 79.9 LOB%. He’s still bound for some regression, but we’ve also seen vast improvement recently. Pitch modeling (100 Pitching+, 4.19 Bot ERA) suggests a perfectly average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 99 (20.6 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.92
DFS Notes: Around 70 with a double digit wind out to right-center and I’m sure the Dodgers (5.32) will be fine, whoever the Diamondbacks with the league’s worst bullpen estimators L30 days throw. Freddie Freeman (181 wRC+, .243 ISO v RHP this year) fit in my FD lineup and I don’t fear LHP with either he or Ohtani (216, .394 v RHP). Smith (102, .155), Teoscar (116, .188) and Heyward (102, .187) may be top bats if we knew who to project them against. Montero is one of the best throwing catchers though. I think Stone has improved and is one of the better pitchers tonight, but isn’t cheap and facing a contact prone offense. At 3.68 runs, I’m not interested in attacking him. Not easy to run on and a decent Dodger pen behind. However, both Sewald (40) and Phillips (47) have worked three of the last four days.
Orioles @ Mariners
Dean Kremer returns from the IL, having struck out just nine of 44 AAA batters over three rehab starts, allowing four home runs. He allowed 12.9% Barrels/BBE before hitting the IL, generating a 5.48 xERA that’s more than half a run above all other estimators with a 15.0 K-BB%. Other non-FIP estimators are within one-third of a run of his 4.32 ERA. Kremer’s 89 Stuff+ grade worked up to a 99 Pitching+ with a 4.31 Bot ERA before his injury.
Opp wRC+: 95 (28.5 K%, 54 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.61
Logan Gilbert has failed to complete six innings just twice (once by a single out), exceeding that mark in 11 of his 17 starts with a 19.1 K-BB% and average contact profile. Still, a .229 BABIP keeps his 2.72 ERA a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.26 xERA to a 3.52 SIERA, which are still very strong. Despite just a 4.9 BB%, Gilbert’s 119 Stuff+ mark drops to a 103 Pitching+ with every pitch he’s thrown more than 13 times this grading between 54 and 58 via PitchingBot methods. Gilbert has held LHBs below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA this year. It should be interesting to see what the Orioles do here. For daily fantasy purposes, we hope they don’t do it too late, though we’re unlikely to be attacking Gilbert in this environment anyway.
Opp wRC+: 118 (20.2 K%, 118 Road, 124 L7 days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.91
DFS Notes: As mentioned yesterday, the roof is open around three-quarters of the time, so that’s what I’m defaulting to now, raising the run factor all the way from 81 to 85 on average, still most negative in the league. The biggest boost with the open roof is to right-handed power. These are two of the three lowest run totals tonight. I don’t trust Kremer. I don’t know if there are workload limitations. It’s so high upside against the Mariners though. Maybe he’s fine? I have Gilbert essentially tied with Wheeler, maybe slightly behind as the second or third best arm on the board. His strength this year is in the workload. Henderson (182 wRC+, .333 ISO v RHP this year) maybe matchup AND park proof. That’s about it here. Marginal running against either combo. The Orioles are a top third pen L30 days with the Mariners bottom half of the league.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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