Just to reiterate something from yesterday, which I don't expect was widely read with just three games (but 2-0), I'll mostly be using only 2024 stats going forward, since we're now past the halfway mark. It gets crazy with six straight days of every team playing starting today. Almost made it all the way through all 15 on Monday night. Just another couple to go.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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Cardinals @ Pirates
Depending how you want to manipulate the numbers, the Braves may have just ended a nice run of starts for Kyle Gibson with four runs in four innings and four strikeouts. Five walks breaking up the party of four. Shockingly, his 11.3 K-BB% is within a hair of his career rate (10.6%). Estimators ranging from a 4.05 xFIP to a 4.84 xERA are all more than one-third of a run above Gibson’s 3.70 ERA. Substandard pitch modeling metrics offer up a 92 Stuff+ score, 94 Pitching+ and 5.12 Bot ERA. His top five most frequently thrown pitches all receive PitchingBot grades no higher than 46.
Opp wRC+: 82 (25 K%, 81 Home)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.81
After a string of six straight quality starts with two runs or less, Mitch Keller has allowed four runs in two of his last three starts (Cardinals, Reds). In his last outing, Keller failed to complete six innings for the first time in nine starts by a single out. With a healthy 15.3 K-BB% and just 6.5% Barrels/BBE, non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.81 xERA to a 4.26 dERA are all more than half a run above his ERA with just eight of 19 barrels leaving the yard (7.2 HR/FB). Pitch modeling grades are all very average as well. Perhaps miscast as the defacto Ace of this staff early in the season, Keller fits right in the middle of the Pittsburgh rotation behind Skenes and Jones.
Opp wRC+: 104 (90 Road)
DEF: -20
B30: 3.95
White Sox @ Guardians
Only 20% of Chris Flexen’s starts have been quality starts. A 4.47 xERA (34.7% hard contact rate) is his only estimator more than one-quarter of a run removed from his 5.13 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 103 (19 K%, 114 Home)
DEF: -16.5
B30: 3.48
Carlos Carrasco has held the Blue Jays and Orioles to three runs over his last 11 innings with 10 strikeouts with his 93 mph average fastball velocity in these two starts a mile and a half per hour faster than his season average. Estimators ranging from a 4.32 xFIP to a 4.97 xERA are more than a quarter of a run below his 5.27 ERA (68.5 LOB%).
Opp wRC+: 75 (78 Road)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.91
Update 4:10 EST: Low 80s, light wind out to left. Rare Hedges start against a RHP. Pham out. Robert bats leadoff, Sheets fourth, Jimenez dropped to fifth.
Red Sox @ Marlins
Before his last start against the Blue Jays was suspended after just six batters faced, Kutter Crawford had allowed 29 runs over his previous 34.2 innings, though only 23 were earned and he had a 19.2 K-BB% over that span. The problem is that 13 of his 23 barrels came over this stretch too, making up more than one-third of his hard contact. Season estimators are packed tightly between a 3.83 SIERA and 4.05 xFIP, about half a run above his 3.54 ERA, mostly due to eight unearned runs in total. PitchingBot grades of 58 on both the fastball (33.7%, 0.5 RV/100) and cutter (30.6%, 0.6 RV/100) and the Marlins are the second worst fastball hitting team in the league (-0.84 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 82 (86 Home)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.70
Valente Bellozo went through the Kansas City order exactly twice with just two hits and two strikeouts. He was an “Other Prospect of Note” on the recently released Fangraphs report of the Miami system. Projections are all over the place, averaging close to five.
Opp wRC+: 102 (113 Road)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.39
Update 3:40 EST: Marlins have jettisoned Tim Anderson and rerouted the bottom half of their lineup.
Mets @ Nationals
Sean Manaea came away from his last outing with five shutout innings, despite walking five Yankees. That’s now eight of his last 42 batters after just eight of his previous 152. With a season walk rate of 10.6% now and most else being near average, Manaea has a 4.29 SIERA and xERA a bit above his 3.89 ERA to go along with his 96 Pitching+ mark (87 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 81 (7.4 HR/FB)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.49
Through five starts, DJ Herz struck out 13 of his 27 in a single start against the Marlins. It’s the only start he recorded more than 13 outs and is the driving force behind contact neutral estimators below four. None of eight barrels (12.5%) were surrendered in that start either. A Stuff+ mark of 91 (97 Pitching+), along with a 4.56 Bot ERA and no PitchingBot grades above 50 suggest we probably shouldn’t expect many more of those elite performances.
Opp wRC+: 125 (19.7 K%, 124 Road, 169 L7 days)
DEF: -14
B30: 3.46
DFS Notes: 80ish with a light wind out to left. Hitter leaning Vanover behind the plate. Nimmo out again. Same LU as Monday. Mets stopping short of saying Nimmo has a concussion.
Reds @ Yankees
Graham Aschcraft has a slightly higher Stuff+ grade (113) than Luis Gil (111). That’s both shocking and about the only thing they have nearly in common. Ashcraft drives that down to a 96 Pitching+ not with too many walks (7.2%), but by being too hittable (17 K%, 45.6 Hard%, 43.7 Z-O-Swing%). He’s allowed 27 runs over his last 33 innings and his best estimator on the season is a 4.35 dERA. Ashcraft does not want to throw his sinker (19.3%, -3.7 RV/100, 28 PB grade) against these Yankees (0.9 wSI/C is best in the league). Batters from either side have at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA agains him this season.
Opp wRC+: 123 (120 Home, 127 L7 days)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.35
Twelve runs over Luis Gil’s last 5.2 innings against the Mets and Orioles, but it really goes back even further, walking four Red Sox and allowing three in 5.2 innings against the Dodgers. Blame it on a rough patch in the schedule, but he’s sitting on a 12.7 BB% and his strikeout rate has dipped to 28% with an 11.7 SwStr%. His 3.15 ERA simply almost meets his 3.26 xERA now (contact neutral estimators reach four). This is a get right spot for him though.
Opp wRC+: 85 (25.7 K%)
DEF: 14.5
B30: 4.26
DFS Notes: Before we start on this 11 game Tuesday slate with three protected environments, I need to note that Statcast searches are timing out. Not that big of a deal with only three games on Monday, but some numbers quoted are only updated through Sunday. Weather does not get too out of hand anywhere, mostly because we may lose the one spot where it does (Kansas City), while it does appear to be a wind blowing out day at Wrigley.
Outside the pair of Coors teams, the Yankees are the only other offense exceeding five implied runs, though we get nearly half the board (nine teams) to four and a half or better. The flip side to that is exactly half the board (11) below four runs.
We start with the Yankees (5.11), hosting the Reds, the lowest team on the board (3.39). Upper 70s with a light wind in from the right field pole area. Gil has a high upside matchup, but has become a bit more of a risk costing $9.5K or more. I’ve elected a different higher priced arm tonight and it’s probably already fairly obvious who my top pitcher tonight is, in another high upside spot. As mentioned, batters from either side are smoking Ashcraft this year. Judge (210 wRC+, .392 ISO v RHP) is a top bat on this board, Soto (184, .273) and check out a cheap Ben Rice (177, .095), who may be a necessary part of Yankee stacks. It’s tough to run on this combination though and the Reds actually have the third best bullpen estimators in baseball L30 days. The only interesting aspect of the other side of this matchup offensively is that the Yankees have the six worst pen estimators in baseball over the last 30 days. Consider a Cincy stack or two in multi, in case Gil self-implodes again and gets himself another early exit.
Update 3:20 EST: Blakney leans pitcher friendly. Significant line movement towards Yankees. Trevino in for Wells (five RHBs). Everyone hits Ashcraft well with little split. Stephenson back for Reds, Fraley not.
Astros @ Blue Jays
SpAghetti threw a career game in Coors last time out, striking out 10 of 24 on three hits over seven shutout innings. Not only was it his first walkless outing, but his first start with fewer than two walks. One outing spiked his K-BB from 11% to 13.5%. Estimators now ranging from a 4.14 xERA to a 4.56 dERA suggest a below average, but respectable starter. The 5.68 ERA has a lot to do with a .349 BABIP. Arrighetti’s 87 Stuff+ mark is up to a 99 Pitching+ with a 3.87 Bot ERA, which includes a 69 grade cutter (21.3%, 1.2 RV/100). The Blue Jays are the second worst offense in the league against cutters (-1.43 wFC/C).
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.9 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.92
Jose Berrios has five outing of seven innings with two runs or less over his last 14 starts, but also a .243 BABIP and 83.1 LOB% over that span. Even striking out eight of 27 Yankees last time out with his second highest swinging strike rate of the season (11.8%) only increased his season strikeout rate to 18.3% (8.2 SwStr%). Berrios has estimators (4.17 dERA – 4.96 FIP) worse than Arrighetti, but can claim some misfortune with 18 of 20 barrels (6.6%) leaving the yard. His worst non-FIP estimator is a 4.50 xERA. Berrios’s pitch modeling works out similar too with a 100 Pitching+ and 4.02 Bot ERA. His worst graded pitch is his fastball (17.1%, -0.8 RV/100, 44 PB grade), which is also the pitch the Astros do the most damage against (0.57 wFA/C is third best).
Opp wRC+: 113 (18.6 K%)
DEF: 18.5
B30: 4.17
DFS Notes: This is one of the two games we're a bit behind on with Statcast jamming. Recent park factors from Statcast have the run environment increasing from 98 to 102 with the roof open, as it has been very frequently lately. These teams ARE the middle of the board today at 4.25 implied runs and no other offense within one-quarter of a run. Either of these pitchers seem a bit too flawed against low strikeout, dangerous offenses. However, both are less than $8K on DK on a day without a lot of value. I’m not adamantly against either on this board. A very affordable (on FD at least) Spencer Horwitz (179 wRC+, .170 ISO v RHP) is my favorite bat in this game. Batters from either side are between a .300 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against both pitchers this season. Vlad (141, .165), Yordan (144, .252) and Altuve (126, .168) are other bats of interest here. All four + Turner (104, .110) exceed a 150 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Houston duo can be run on. The Toronto pair can not. Both bullpens have estimators in the last third of the league over the last 30 days. Hader (28) has thrown two of last three. Two in a row for Abreu (44).
Update 5:45 EST: Can't find any info on the roof. IstheDomeOpen posted early yesterday, but that seemed to be an aberration. HOU goes to 4 LHBs against Berrios, who has a reverse split this year. They certainly haven't gotten any smarter with recent front office moves. Still played under 4.5 Ks (+118) for Berrios. Under 10 SwStr% in 12 of 17 starts. Under this number four straight before last time out. HOU just three > 20 K% v RHP this year.
Giants @ Braves
The Cubs tagged Hayden Birdsong for three runs over 4.2 innings in his major league debut, but he kept 57.1% of his contact on the ground, while striking out five of 22 batters, though with just an 8.2 SwStr%. Despite just a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), projections are fairly aggressive for Birdsong, averaging around four and a quarter runs per nine. Some of the secondaries received grades above 50 (PitchingBot) in his first start, but the fastball (53.6%) just a 30.
Opp wRC+: 95 (109 Home, 75 L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.65
Reynaldo Lopez has completed just five innings in each of his last two starts, despite allowing just a pair of runs combined. He did walk five Cardinals, but the 93 pitches he threw against Detroit were with one walk were his most since his third start of the season. A 17.1 K-BB% is more than respectable, but not 1.70 ERA good, especially when adding in 8.7% Barrels/BBE, driving his xERA up to 3.98, matching a 3.99 dERA. Just four of his 18 barrels have left the yard. That and his 86.2 LOB% will regress. He’s certainly proven himself, but more as a middle of the rotation than top of the rotation guy. His 95 Stuff+ mark works up to a 101 Pitching+ with a 4.04 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 98 (124 L7 days)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.16
If I’m buying Birdsong’s projections here, I think the Giants (+164) are supposed to be the play. I just don’t know that I am and it’s still pretty darn close.
DFS Notes: Mid-80s with a double digit wind in from left keeps the Braves just below five runs (4.99) for the time being with the Giants in essentially a four way tie (3.51) just above the Reds near the bottom. At more than $9.5K, I feel Lopez is over-valued against a decent offense in a marginal environment at best. Birdsong doesn’t appear to do nearly enough well to be considered in this awful spot. Marcell Ozuna (160 wRC+, .306), Jarred Kelenic (130, .203) and Austin Riley (117, .162) are your top Atlanta hitters against RHP this year. They, along with Murphy (97, .130) are the only four above a 95 wRC+ L30 days. No info on Birdsong, but Bailey has a cannon and SF pen estimators are top third of the league last 30 days. With limited info, I believe I’d go underweight on Braves (with some necessary exposure) in multi entry. Although LHBs have a .330 xwOBA against Lopez this year, the Atlanta pen has the second best estimators in the league last 30 days and I have no interest in bats on this side of the equation.
Update 4:15 EST: Very pitcher friendly Doug Eddings behind the plate. Yaz back for Matos. Puts a fifth LHB in LU for SFG, which hurts Lopez slightly, but also increases strikeout rates. With Seager out for Texas, which we'll get to later, Cease and Lopez have pulled slightly ahead of the pack behind Grayson and Skubal (who also gains with an extremely pitcher friendly umpire). Fun stuff, more complicated pitching decisions. Very tempted by Giants +172.
Tigers @ Twins
Tarik Skubal is coming off a bounce back start, three hitting the Phillies over seven innings with seven strikeouts, after allowing four earned runs in each of his road starts in Atlanta and Houston. Certainly a tough stretch he can be forgiven for, but this is another difficult test for him. Skubal’s 24.2 K-BB% and 31.2% hard contact rate produce estimators ranging from a 2.69 FIP to a 2.95 dERA that aren’t quite as good as his 2.32 ERA, but this is no doubt a Cy Young contender, who has recorded seventh inning outs in exactly half of his 16 starts. He’ll be taking his fastball (32.1%, 2.2 RV/100, 59 PB grade) up against the best fastball hitting team in the league (0.83 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 125 (19.9 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.66
With increased slider usage over his last six starts comes an increase in strikeouts (23.1%) for Simeon Woods-Richardson. Now up to a perfectly average 13.5 K-BB% on the season, 10.3% Barrels/BBE are still a problem with 11 of his 20 barrels coming over his last five starts, though they account for a staggering 39% of his hard contact over that span. Fortunate that just six of those barrels have left the park all season, SWR has a near 3.64 FIP matching 3.41 ERA with remaining estimators ranging from a 4.14 xERA to a 4.32 xFIP. Great command drives an 86 Stuff+ score up to a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 88 (82 Home, 43 L7 days)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.74
As great as Skubal is, and I’ll give him credit for being a full run better than the very average SWR, you can’t win if you can’t score and the Twins have just as large an offensive edge (maybe larger) than the Tigers do starting pitching. Add in the defensive edge with bullpens a near wash and I make the home team a slight favorite here (MIN +102). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a five mph wind out to left in a slightly positive run environment (102 on average park factor via Statcast), we have both teams below three and a half and four implied runs. Skubal is my second ranked pitcher on this board, but a more marginal value in a tough spot. He’s fine, just not the pitcher I chose in my single entry lineups. Ownership may be a good reason TO choose him. On the other side, I did elect to use SWR as my SP2 on DK in a much better matchup. It was a close choice between him at $7.2K or paying up for an SP2, but he allows me to do what I want on offense a bit better. He’s shown a bit more upside recently. If not using him, LHBs have a .259 wOBA, but .323 xwOBA against him this season. Greene (152 wRC+, .238 ISO v RHP) and Perez (98, .133) are bats of interest. At 152 and 87, they have the top two wRC+ marks in the projected lineup over the last 30 days. Simply another reason to favor SWR. RHBs have a .264 wOBA and .281 xwOBA against Skubal this year and there are a couple of Twins worth considering in Correa (168, .267) and Lewis (203, .318) and maybe even Margot (135, .137). This lineup has been punishing LHP this year. I don’t hate a contrary stack in multi entry. Farmer and Jeffers are the only projected batters below a 130 wRC+ L30 days.
Update 4:45 EST: As mentioned in an earlier update, the most pitcher friendly Bill Miller behind the plate enhances both pitchers. Skubal nearly catching Grayson for the top spot and SWR a more clear SP2 choice for me now. Also a massive 6.25% gain on the Twins, who are now clear favorites in this game. I've gained 6% or more on nine sides this year: 4-2-2 on the previous eight, so maybe we've found the number to strive towards.
Padres @ Rangers
Dylan Cease has struck out 19 of his last 45 batters (Brewers and Nationals), but it was only in his last start against the Nats that he put it all together with seven shutout innings on a single hit, having allowed at least three runs in seven of his previous eight starts. The thing is, with a .381 BABIP and 66.8 LOB% over that span, things were always extremely likely to turn around. Nine of Cease’s 15 barrels also left the yard over that span, while he now hasn’t allowed any over his last two starts either. Even with 10.8% Barrels/BBE on the season, a 3.40 xERA is Cease’s closest estimator to a 3.84 ERA that should regress further with a 31.3 K% and 7.5 BB%. Along with a 123 Stuff+ score and 107 Pitching+, Cease takes his fastball (43.5%, 0.1 RV/100, 57 PB grade) up against the third worst fastball offense in the league (-0.65 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 90 (19.7 K%, 94 Home)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.90
Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his eight home starts this year. In fact, 17 of his 28 runs have been surrendered in just five road starts. His overall 16.0 K-BB% is a bit better than last season, but then worse than any other year since 2019. With a 49.2 GB%, he’s allowed just 6.2% Barrels/BBE. A 3.42 dERA is Eovaldi’s only estimator not below a 3.45 ERA with others ranging as high as a 3.97 FIP with nine of his 12 barrels leaving the yard. Eovaldi’s 17.5 K-BB% on the road since last season is quite a bit better than his road mark. Stuff+ only gives him a 98 mark this season, but that works up to a 104 Pitching+ to go along with a 3.78 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 123 (18.2 K%, 108 Road, 136 L7 days)
DEF: 16
B30: 3.82
Eovaldi’s been fine, but Cease has been about a half run better. Pair that with the San Diego offense being far better and San Diego should be the favorite in this game, despite Texas’s home field and defensive edges.
DFS Notes: Roof closed, as it just about always is at this time of year, Texas has a 102 run factor in the latest Statcast numbers. Both teams are at 3.75 implied runs. There are a group of pitchers behind my top two that Cease is a part of, along with Eovaldi just a bit lower, but the major turnoff here is that neither of these offenses strike out. Of course, Cease is the more attractive of the two with San Diego clearly the better offense this year, but also the more volatile of the two. With wOBA and xwOBA against either of these pitchers from either side of the plate capping out at a league average .310, I really have little interest in offense here. Just nothing really jumps out here and the Texas bullpen is extremely well rested and pitching well.
Update 5:30 EST: Roof closed, as expected. As mentioned in another update, Seager's absence gives Cease a boost, also slightly pitcher leaning umpire in Ortiz.
Phillies @ Cubs
Twenty-five year old Michael Mercado makes his first major league start. Pitching both as a starter and out of the pen in the minors, he made 10 AAA starts this year (14 appearances overall) and has a 10.9 K-BB% over 47.1 innings. He was projected as a middle reliever with a 40 Future Value grade in January by Fangraphs because he made only two starts in 52 appearances in 2023, but the Phillies decided to re-convert him back into a starter after coming over from Tampa Bay in the off-season. Major projection systems aren’t very high on him either, averaging a quarter run below five.
Opp wRC+: 96 (24.6 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 2.77
Just 20.1 of Hayden Wesneski’s 45 innings have come in a starting role this season. We’ll have to consider his 14.9 K-BB% overall may dip and he’s already allowing 10.3% Barrels/BBE. Contact neutral estimators are closer to his 3.60 ERA, below four, while contact inclusive ones are above four and a half. Mixed reviews from pitch modeling with a 90 Stuff+ grade (98 Pitching+) and 3.42 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 111 (109 Road, 113 L7 days)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.19
DFS Notes: Its 80 degrees with a 10-15 mph wind out to left-center. This is hitting weather, but not the most insane we’ve seen at Wrigley by a long shot. As such, the Cubs (4.94) and Phillies (4.56) are upper half of the board offenses, but not exactly very top of the board. The weather does make the decision to avoid either of these pitchers easier though. Mercado would seem like a pitcher you want some exposure against in this spot, but this is a very marginal lineup with only Busch (128, .195), Suzuki (121, .201) and Happ (124, .192) above either a 102 wRC+ or .175 ISO against RHP this year. They’re also the only three above a 105 wRC+ L30 days. Stubbs is not Realmuto, but a strong arm as well and the Phillies have the top pen estimators in baseball L30 days. I’d probably go under-weight on Cubs in multi. Alternatively, RHBs have a .316 wOBA, but .371 xwOBA against Wesneski this year with LHBs at .263, but .302. Considering the Cubs have a bottom five pen by L30 days estimators and you can run on Amaya (though less a Nido/Wesneski combo), I’m more in on Phillies here and the absence of some guys makes them easier to stack. Marsh (151, .196), Turner (133, .119), Bohm (152, .201), Stott (101, .131) and Clemens (139, .333) are top choices here.
Update 5:15 EST: As mentioned, Nido a bit tougher to run on than Amaya. Small detail. Dahl adds a fifth LHB against Wesneski's reverse split this year. They're good, but never accused the Phillies of being all that progressive.
Rays @ Royals
Zack Littell’s greatest strength is his control, walking just 4.3% of batters faced and, in the process, increasing his 82 Stuff+ grade to a 100 Pitching+. Despite the lack of walks, Littell has gone beyond six innings just once this year and has gone three straight starts without exceeding five. Pitch counts are all over the place, so it seems as if the Rays are limiting him by innings. Allowing 9.2% Barrels/BBE with a 17.7 K-BB%, Littell’s estimators are all within half a run of his 4.17 ERA with only his dERA (4.18) being higher.
Opp wRC+: 96 (19.5 K%, 111 Home)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.78
Brady Singer posted just his fourth quality start in his last 14 last time out with seven innings of one run ball against the Marlins. Despite a 50.4 GB%, Singer has still allowed 9.7% Barrels/BBE. Even with a 15.7 K-BB%, a 3.57 xFIP is his only estimator within half a run of a 3.12 ERA (80.7 LOB%) with an xERA leaking all the way up to 4.68 (his only estimator above four). Along with an 86 Stuff+ score (95 Pitching+), PitchingBot only gives Singer’s sinker (39.1%, 0.6 RV/100, 52 PB grade) a grade reaching 50. Whether by wOBA or xwOBA, LHBs are more than 100 points better against him this year.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 16
B30: 4.14
DFS Notes: Temps near 90 with a double digit wind out to left-center gives the Royals and Rays both 4.75 team run totals. If that didn’t already kill pitching here, the threat of rain finishes the job. It may also put bats at risk too though, which is a shame. These are two very stackable offenses. LHBs have a .323 wOBA and .329 xwOBA against Littell this year and are within five points of .380 against Singer. RHBs also have a .349 wOBA and .315 xwOBA against LIttell. Virtually everyone in either of these lineups except Loftin (44 wRC+ v RHP) and Walls (61) make sense here. Both of these pitchers hold runners well though, but the Royals have a bottom third of the league pen last 30 days. B.Lowe (112, .219), J.Lowe (111, .202) and Witt (147, .230) are top of the board bats should this game play.
DFS Notes: Temp increase to a bit above 90, but still seems a toss up to play. Would lean towards the over in a vacuum.
Brewers @ Rockies
Dallas Keuchel pitching in Coors in 2024 would almost be comical if the Rockies weren’t so bad, though they’re not quite as hideous against LHP. He hasn’t exceeded a 5.0 K-BB% since 2020 with an 8.0% mark at AAA getting him back to the majors. Projections average just below five after the struggling Rangers, who haven’t done jack against LHP this year, smacked him for five runs over four innings in his season debut.
Opp wRC+: 89 (24.9 K%, 83 Home)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 3.88
Ryan Feltner has allowed at least four runs in six straight starts, though eight of the 33 have been unearned and he’s done so with a 14.1 K-BB% and 49.1% ground ball rate with five barrels (4.7%). Aside from the defense, get a load of these numbers: a .340 BABI, 39.4 LOB% and six home runs (remember, just five barrels). Feltner’s 5.82 ERA this season is at least a run and three quarters above every single non-FIP estimator, including a matching 4.05 xERA and SIERA. With a 13.6 K-BB%, he’s allowed just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. Feltner has a 102 Pitching+ grade. Get this poor bastard out of Colorado.
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.43
DFS Notes: Low 80s with a near double digit wind in from left-center, this is still the top offensive spot on the board with the Brewers (5.9) and Rockies (5.6) the top two teams on the board and I’m much more interested in the latter. To start with, Feltner might be a decent pitcher and has held RHBs to a reasonable .312 wOBA and .296 xwOBA this year. LHBs are at .382, .339, but the Brewers don’t have many of those. However, everyone in the projected lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ v RHP this season with everyone except Frelick and Turang between a .165 and .191 ISO. Yelich (153, .173) is the obvious top bat here. Colorado has the third worst bullpen estimators L30 days. All their top relievers (if such a thing exists) have been used two of the last three days. Keuchel holds runners well (a lot of practice), but Milwaukee has bottom quarter of the league pen estimators L30 days too. Toglia, Jones and Doyle don’t exceed a 75 wRC+ against LHP this year. Every other projected Rockie is above 100. Diaz, Jones and Doyle are below a .135 ISO against LHP this year. Every other projected Rockie is above .200. Rodgers (152, .236) may be the top bat on the board tonight. He leads the projected lineup with a 157 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Jones is the only Colorado bat I’d even consider avoiding tonight. I have Rodgers, Stallings (181, .333), Tovar (114, .207) and Doyle in both single entry lineups tonight with Goodman (133, .441) on DK as well.
Update 5:05 EST: Line movement towards home team and better pitcher. Mitchell & Monasterio in for Hoskins & Ortiz does add a fifth LHB against Feltner's sizable split.
Angels @ Athletics
Jose Soriano threw eight innings of two run ball at the Diamondbacks on June 12th before hitting the IL. His best feature is a 60.1 GB%, yet he’s still allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE with a 45.1% hard contact rate. Estimators between a 3.67 dERA and 3.97 SIERA are close to half a run above his 3.48 ERA with just a 10.8 K-BB%. Pitch modeling sees a perfectly average pitcher with the curveball (27.5%, 0.1 RV/100, 57 PB grade) his only strongly above average pitch and one of many the A’s struggle to hit (-0.58 wCU/C is sixth worst).
Opp wRC+: 92 (27.1 K%, 102 Home)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.43
Mitch Spence has now pitched about two-thirds of his innings in a starting role, so we can be a bit more confident in his overall numbers, especially considering many of his relief outings were three innings or more. In several ways, he nearly mirror’s Soriano with a 14.3 K-BB% and nearly half his contact on the ground (48.8%), yet still 8.3% Barrels/BBE with a 42.7% hard contact rate. In fact, he has very similar estimators, ranging from a 3.59 dERA to a 3.79 SIERA, xFIP and xERA. All are more than half a run below his 4.35 ERA though, because he’s only stranded 68.7% of his runners. Pitch modeling believes him to be average as well, or actually slightly better (102 Pitching+, 3.50 Bot ERA) with both his curveball (10.5%, -4.1 RV/100) and slider (38.2%, 0.3 RV/100) receiving PitchingBot grades or better. The slider is actually the only pitch the Angels are top half of the league against.
Opp wRC+: 94 (94 Home, 129 L7 days)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.93
DFS Notes: Near 80 degrees with a near double digit wind out to right is what passes for massive hitting weather in Oakland. Both teams are at 3.75 implied runs. I feel like Spence may have a bit more upside than Soriano and is a bit cheaper, making him a very reasonable SP2 in a good spot. Oakland starts with a 94 park run factor, so only moves up to neutral with this weather (if that). Ironically, LHBs have a .308 xwOBA against both pitchers this season and so do RHBs against Spence with RHBs owning a .312 xwOBA against Soriano. Both pitchers are marginal run holders, while O’Hoppe is the easier catcher to run on and both pens have bottom five estimators over the last 30 days (A’s worst in MLB, despite Miller, who seems to rarely pitch anymore). I really like Soderstrom (118 wRC+, .212 ISO v RHP this year) and Bleday (122, .185) as value plays here.
Update 6 EST: Drury in for Sano drops K rate for Spence, further enhancing SWR as SP2 choice.
Orioles @ Mariners
It seems the seven runs Houston laid on Grayson Rodriguez a couple of starts back were an aberration. He still struck out eight and it’s the only time over his last five starts he’s allowed more than two runs, completing at least 6.2 innings in three of them. And Gray-Rod shut down a pair of good offenses in the Guardians and Phillies wrapped around the Astros. With an 18.5 K-BB% and average contact profile, all estimators are within one-fifth of a run of his 3.72 ERA with some of the best pitch modeling grades in the league. A 119 Stuff+ mark turns into a 107 Pitching+ with a 2.74 Bot ERA. Rodriguez’s worst PitchingBot grade is 58 with three pitches exceeding 60, including a slider, changeup and four-seamer the Mariners, all of which the Mariners are bottom third of the league against.
Opp wRC+: 96 (28.4 K%, 67 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.54
George Kirby has allowed eight runs over his last 37 innings with a 25.5 K-BB%, raising his season rate to 22%. A certain Cy Young contender, the park helps hide the 9.2% Barrels/BBE with only nine of 27 barrels leaving the park. Kirby’s 3.35 ERA still matches his xERA with his SIERA, xFIP and dERA all within one-tenth of a run as well. Kirby’s pitch modeling isn’t as strong as Rodriguez, but 106 Stuff+ and Pitching+ scores with all PItchingBot grades exceeding 50 is impressive in its own right. The only problem is that Baltimore only has a vulnerability to sinkers (-0.31 wSI/C is bottom half of the league) though that is Kirby’s best pitch (23.1%, 1.2 RV/100, 68 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 119 (20.2 K%, 119 Road, 142 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.81
DFS Notes: Yesterday, I learned that the Mariners open the roof about three-quarters of the time. We never really know before-hand, but that makes me switch my default to open here, where as I usually default to closed in every other park and then go from there. Up until recently, it hasn’t mattered, but most recent park factors move the run factor from 81 to 85 on average with it open, still the most negative run environment in baseball. I, along with half the slate I expect, love Grayson Rodriguez in the highest upside spot on the board. He is, by far, my top pitcher and value on the board tonight. Ownership is the biggest issue here. I expect strikeouts to keep his floor high here no matter what. I like Kirby too and for $8.7K on DK had a tough decision to make between he, SWR or even Spencer, but the offensive flexibility the lower priced arms offered won out (for now at least). The Orioles are so good that I expect Kirby my go under-appreciated in a great environment. He’s a great contrarian play tonight and certainly someone I’d probably look to go over-weight on in multi-entry if I saw projections below 20-25% for him. Offensively, my interest is very limited to Henderson (184 wRC+, .339 ISO v RHP this year) and maybe O’Hearn (135, .190). LHBs are within four points of a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Kirby this year. The elephant in the room is that RHBs are within three points of a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Grayson, but LHBs are below .265. No projected Mariner bat exceeds a 97 wRC+ v RHP this year, unless they decide to add more RHBs and even then, who scares you? You absolutely can’t run on Grayson either (you can on Kirby a bit). The Mariners have middling pen estimators L30 days, while Baltimore is top third of the league.
Update 6:10 EST: Quite a bit going on here. Julio dropped to seventh by Mariners. Kjerstand in for Mountcastle. More importantly, Moscoso is a hitter friendly umpire. I've moved Skubal slightly higher than Grayson overall. BUT still find Grayson the top value on the slate. At least among the top arms.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Following a pair of quality starts with a total of three runs allowed over 13 innings, Ryne Nelson failed to get out of the fourth against the Twins. Go back before those quality starts and he failed to get out of the fourth against the Padres after another 7.2 innings of two run ball. Inconsistency, a 15 K% and 10.4% Barrels/BBE are a terrible combination. He threw five shutout innings at the Dodgers last time he faced them, but I’m not sure we should expect the same results here. A 4.45 FIP (nine home runs, 25 barrels) is his only estimator below four and a half, though all are more than half a urn below a 5.69 ERA (.346 BABIP, 66.7 LOB%). I don’t know why PitchingBot still loves the fastball (50%, -0.5 RV/100, 57 grade) with a 3.84 Bot ERA overall.
Opp wRC+: 118 (121)
DEF: 16
B30: 4.83
As alluded to below, Bobby Miller has walked six of 37 batters since returning from the IL with just three strikeouts, while his velocity has dropped nearly a mph and lower in his second start than his first. With a 13.8 BB%, 11.1% Barrels/BBE and 46.3% hard hit rate through five starts, all estimators exceed four, but are more than four-fifths of a run below his 6.75 ERA. Miller’s 121 Stuff+ mark works down to a 98 Pitching+ with a 4.43 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 99 (20.6 K%, 100 Road, 99 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.84
Full notes on this game on Tuesday, but Miller hasn’t hit his K prop (u 4.5 +104) since his first start of the season and has walked more than he’s struck out in each of his two starts back from the IL. He’s also facing a low strikeout lineup after failing to beat this number against the Rockies and White Sox his last two times out.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind out to center is hitting weather in Los Angeles. The Dodgers sit at 4.99 implied runs against Nelson with the D’Backs at just 3.51. I’d certainly challenge the latter with an Arizona stack or two against the unstable Miller at this point and there’s no way in hell I’m trusting him against a contact prone offense. If you want to take one or two shots at $8K or less, probably fine in multi. He does have some pedigree. LHBs have a .474 wOBA and .386 xwOBA against him this year in five starts. RHBs at .325 and .366. You can run on Miller. The Dodger pen has middling estimators L30 days, should they get involved early. But, should they get involved early, it’s likely the bottom of the pen the D’Backs are facing. RHBs are at .423 and .369 against Nelson, which may actually help him here, though LHBs are at a healthy .328, .340 too. Shohei (213 wRC+, .388 ISO v RHP) still a top bat on the board. Freeman (180, .242) and Teoscar (113, .188) stand out too. Lux and Smith are the only projected Dodgers below a 100 wRC+ L30 days. Nelson is tough to run on, but Arizona has the second worst bullpen estimators over the last 30 days.
Update 6:20 EST: No ARI LU yet. Mantiply opens for Nelson. Not a bad idea, yet run totals for both teams have increased. Wind up to nearly 10 mph out to right center. Slightly hitter friendly ump in Scheurwater.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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