With only three games on Monday, we have time and room for some extrapolation here. I'll go in order of importance, which should make everyone happier.
A new month means I've updated park factors and some league wide stats, so I may be quoting some slightly different numbers going forward. Or at least until next month. It is a bit of a surprise to see with all the complaints about batting average being down, that starting pitcher strikeouts are at their second lowest mark since 2018 (21.8%). However, despite the shift ban, a .289 BABIP for starting pitchers is also the lowest mark in, well, who knows when because I only went back 25 years.
With this also being the halfway mark of the season, I've abandoned 2023 stats in most instances (except for pitcher home/road, which is still a really small sample) and will be mostly quoting just 2024 stats going forward.
After today, we have full 15 game days for the next six days. Though I generally omit Sundays and shorten Saturday posts, I'm not sure I'm mentally and physically equipped to handle even four straight 15 game slates. Thursday may be the ideal day for a short post without a large night slate, due to the holiday. There's only one other afternoon game the rest of the week after today and that's Friday at Wrigley.
You can just skip to the game content now, as the rest is mostly personal observation at the midway point.
I think I've mentioned before that since I started keeping records around this time last season, through the end of the 2023 season, I was 12-23-4 when gaining at least 3% on the moneyline. I thought it to be an aberration, but here we are halfway through the 2024 season and...
23-27-8 gaining 3% or more
12-14-6 gaining 4% or more (14 favorites when bet, 9 dogs higher than +120)
8-11-5 gaining 4.5% or more
6-8-3 gaining 5% or more (9 favorites when bet, only 3 dogs higher than +120)
I'm betting mostly dogs, but a lot of those dogs when bet closed as favorites. I would expect a better record, maybe 55-57% on these games would be reasonable? The most ironic thing is that I've sometimes found myself avoiding plays where the line appears to have moved too much to one side because I was cautious about going against "smart money". I've abandoned that practice over the last few weeks after getting a better look at the numbers above. Not to infer that every line move is because of "smart money", sometimes it's simply the majority, but I always thought you were supposed to feel good about getting a much better line than the closing one. I'm no long so sure that it means as much as I thought.
If I had cashed out before any of these games started, I'd be much further ahead. In fact, I haven't kept records and it has to be more, but I can only recall winning one extra-inning game this season. If I had cashed out after nine every time, I'd be even further ahead. Just like F5 (F3 or F7), there should be an option for F9. Although, I assume DraftKings would charge extra vig for that.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Astros @ Blue Jays
Hunter Brown has increased his sinker usage to 21.5% over his last four starts and that seems to be what everybody is talking about, but it’s actually the other pitch he’s utilizing more over that span (cutter 25.7%) that owns the much higher run value (5.35 wFC/C). The PitchingBot grade on the sinker over that span is 53, but 57 for the cutter. Brown has allowed one run over 25 innings with a 22.7 K-BB% in over these four starts. Now up to a 16.6 K-BB% on the season, non-FIP estimators (12 home runs, 10 barrels, 32.3% hard contact rate) range from a 3.33 xERA to a 3.68 SIERA, all more than two-thirds of a run below his 4.37 ERA. Stuff+ and Pithcing+ marks are up to 104 and 103 respectively.
Opp wRC+: 101 (19.8 K%, 157 L7 days)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.95
Yariel Rodriguez has gone exactly one inning in each of his starts back from the IL. In his first, the Guardians torched him for five runs. In his second, at Fenway, the game was quickly suspended. Even when healthy, Rodriguez hasn’t exceeded 83 pitches or four innings in any of his four starts, while RHBs have smoked him for a .447 wOBA and .433 xwOBA. Bad news against Houston, right? Despite just 5.8% Barrels/BBE, a 5.78 xERA is actually his only estimator above a 5.60 ERA and that’s mostly due to a 14.1 BB% with a 42.3% hard hit rate. No estimators fall below four and a half through just 17.2 innings. He does have PitchingBot grades in the low 50s for both pitches he utilizes more than 12% of the time (slider, fastball), but both are also below -1.5 RV/100 on the run value scale.
Opp wRC+: 113 (18.8 K%, 138 L7 days)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 4.16
It certainly appears as if one of these pitchers has found his way. I’m viewing Brown as the far superior pitcher here and this is an awful matchup for Rodriguez, as he’s likely to face at least seven RHBs (if the Astros are still smart). Didn’t know if I’d find anything interesting enough on a three game board, but here we are right away (HOU -124 F5). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 12:45 EST: Roof open (Thanks to IstheDomeOpen for being back on the ball). Fresher Statcast park factors have the run environment going from just 98 to 102 when the roof opens (on average). No Altuve & the Astros add a third LHB (Alvarez/Singelton/Cabbage) against Rodriguez's massive reverse split (FML). This organization is getting dumber. They're very close to slipping into darkness again and it'll probably be much longer before they pull out this time. Still a small gain (1.16%) on F5.
Mets @ Nationals
Stranding 80.4% runners through his first five starts, David Peterson has been able to manufacture the illusion that he’s been a perfectly competent arm with 52.4% of his contact on the ground, but despite the more than half mile per hour gain to his fastball, that really couldn’t’ be much further from the truth. Despite all the ground balls, opposing batters have still generated 8.3% Barrels/BBE on a 45.2% hard contact rate. He hasn’t induced a single pop up yet. He’s also sitting on a career low 16.5 K% and 9.2 SwStr%, while sitting on the same yearly 10.7 BB%. You can’t even pinpoint the issue because whiff rates are down on every single pitch. In addition to every single estimator being above four and a half, Peterson has a 5.03 Bot ERA with only his curveball (7%, -3 RV/100, 52 PB grade) exceeding a 48 PB grade with 93 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ grades in agreement.
Opp wRC+: 81 (7.4 HR/FB)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.54
After bombing against the Mets five starts back (six runs, 4.1 innings) MacKenzie Gore quelled any concerns by shutting down the Braves and Marlins (three runs, 12 innings, 17 strikeouts), but was then touched up by the Diamondbacks (five innings, four runs). However, Arizona is one of the top offenses against LHP and two of the runs were unearned, while he struck out seven with just two walks. Then, last time out, the Padres got him for five more with three walks and one strikeout. He’s only allowed three barrels with a 33.7% hard contact rate over this five start span and in both cases (Mets & Padres) it was a lack of command (seven walks) that punished him. Self-inflicted damage. Still sitting on a 19.1 K-BB% with just 6.3% Barrels/BBE on the season, I elect to continue buying in here until there’s a more definitive pattern. A 3.13 FIP is Gore’s only estimator more than one-fifth or a run removed from his 3.60 ERA, while pitch modeling adores him (115 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+, 3.46 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 126 (19.7 K%, 124 Road, 195 L7 days)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 3.62
A few things going on here. First is the greatly anticipated call up of James Wood, which is a bit odd that they’re not waiting for a RHP to do this against, but LHBs have a .346 wOBA and .363 xwOBA against Peterson this year anyway. Second, Peterson is nearly a run below all h is estimators. Lastly, while the New York bullpen actually has the sixth best estimators over the last 30 days, Diaz is still out, Drew Smith just hit the IL and virtually everyone else was heavily used this weekend even before the Mets got into an extra-inning game against the Astros on Sunday that included a multi-hour rain delay. I think the Nationals can get to an over-valued pitcher and over-worked bullpen for more than a few runs here (over 3.5 -130).
Update 3:50 EST: No Nimmo. Bader bats second. Wood bats sixth in his debut. WSH o3.5 is still -130.
Brewers @ Rockies
I don’t know what criteria the Brewers use in deciding when to use an opener for Bryse Wilson, but it seems to be every other start over his last eight outings. The last two times the Brewers opened for him, Wilson has allowed zero runs over 11.1 innings afterward (Rangers, Reds), but when he starts games himself, Wilson has allowed 12 runs over nine innings (Tigers, Padres). I assume they’re looking for a platoon edge (LHBs .378 wOBA, .381 xwOBA v Wilson this year), but aren’t likely to find one with the Rockies fairly well balanced in the upper half of their lineup right now. Wilson has just a 10.6 K-BB% on the season with 45.2% hard contact rate, generating estimators ranging from a 4.37 SIERA to a 4.88 FIP, almost all more than a half run above his 3.89 ERA (.254 BABIP, 79.3 LOB%). As far as pitch modeling goes, the curveball is interesting (15.7%, -1.2 RV/100, 57 PB grade), especially against the Rockies (-0.58 wCU/C is tied for fifth worst), but that’s also his only above average pitch (by PB grade) to go along with 92 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 78 (25.6 K%, 83 Home, 28 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.75
Following eight innings of one run ball in Oakland, Austin Gomber has allowed 24 runs over his last 23 innings with just a 13.9 K% and 12.8% Barrels/BBE, accounting for one-third of his hard contact. In fact, on the season, barrels (10.6%) account for 28% of his hard contact (38%). That’s problematic, especially at Coors. Gomber has had a tough run of opponents over this span (Dodgers twice, Cardinals, Twins, Astros), but four of those starts were on the road. On the season, all estimators are above four and a half and within one-third of a run of his 4.63 ERA. On a positive note, what Gomber lacks in pure stuff (80 Stuff+), he mostly makes up for in command (97 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 94 (12 K-BB%)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 4.48
Update 5:40 EST: Wilson gets another opener. No MIL LU yet.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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