Had multi-run leads in all three sides mentioned here last night (Blue Jays, Royals and Diamondbacks). Even held on to win one. Only four of the more interesting matchups below, but keeping place holders in case anything up pops up on Saturday afternoon. No daily fantasy notes with the majority of the action in the afternoon.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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Rockies @ White Sox
Fairly quickly, Cal Quantrill has estimators ranging from a 4.07 xERA to a 4.69 xERA that are below average, but not the worst in the league. Meanwhile, Cannon doesn’t have an estimator reaching four, but has a .343 BABIP.
Opp wRC+: 73 (74 Road, 50 L7 days)/80 (82 Road, 81 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5/-15
B30: 4.43/3.62
This is almost entirely about two completely inept offenses. Cannon has been fine, Quantrill has been better against poor teams with the use of his splitter, but these two offenses are awful. Give me the under (8.5 -104).
Update 12:50 EST: Upper 80s with a near double digit wind out to left-center with a very slightly hitter friendly umpire is not going to help the under. I still have the game going under the above total, but the actual line has increased half a run.
Reds @ Cardinals
Yankees @ Blue Jays
Marlins @ Phillies
Roddery Munoz has an 11.7 BB% and is allowing 15.8% Barrels/BBE with a 47.5% hard contact rate. The only positive part of his game, a 22.1 K% and 11 SwStr% are just 17.7% and 10.6% after his first two starts. LHBs exceed a .450 wOBA against him and RHBs a .400 xwOBA. With a 5.57 Bot ERA and 91 Stuff+ mark (93 Pitching+), Munoz has just a single pitch grade above 37 (sinker 46). The Phillies are near the top of the league against every pitch type, though they’re down nearly half a lineup now.
Opp wRC+: 110 (117 Home)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.60
A 22.5 K% is Aaron Nola’s lowest since his rookie season. Opponents are making contact on 90% of their swings inside the strike zone. The major positive here is both his walk rate and barrels per batted ball allowed are 6.3%. Estimators range from a 3.51 xERA to a 3.82 FIP, while Nola exceeds PitchingBot grades of 60 on both his sinker (63) and curve (69) with a 102 Stuff+ mark (105 Pitching+)
Opp wRC+: 82 (69 Road)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 2.89
The lineup the Phillies posted on Friday against a RHP averaged a wRC+ of exactly 100. Even that is 18 points better than Miami and 31 points better than Miami on the road. Add in that Nola may be more than two runs better than Munoz, who’s best estimator is a 4.67 SIERA, and I’m willing to pay a big price here, but I think I want to split my exposure between PHI F5 (-240) and a parlay somehow. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 1:30 EST: If I were not in on PHI somehow, I'd probably be on their team total or the F5 total. Gain of 3.09% on PHI F5.
Guardians @ Royals
Astros @ Mets
Framber Valdez has quality starts of at least seven innings with exactly one run in three of his last five starts. The key here is a .225 BABIP, which is a bit surprising with a 55.6 GB% and 46.2% hard contact rate. On the season, an 11.3 K-BB%, 62.3 GB%, 48.5% hard contact rate, but just 4.7% Barrels/BBE generates estimators all within one quarter of a run of his 3.68 ERA. A 111 Stuff+ mark works down to a 99 Pitching+ with a 3.87 Bot ERA. Pitching Bot grades span from 47 to 54 on his three main pitches. He’s been a bit better than average.
Opp wRC+: 122 (191 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.79
Tylor Megill is sitting on a .345 BABIP and 61.4 LOB%, but command issues are equally to blame for his 4.81 ERA. He’s walked 10.7% of batters and an inability to consistently get ahead of batters has resulted in a 46.5 Z-O-Swing%, 11.4% Barrels/BBE and 46.6% hard hit rate. Even then, a 4.45 xERA is his worst estimator by more than half a run. A 104 Stuff+ mark and 96 Pitching+ illustrate the frustrating potential here. Megill seems to be a thrower of seven pitches, but master of none right now.
Opp wRC+: 113 (18.8 K%, 143 L7 days)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.60
I’m not sure the Astros should be road favorites here. This seems like a straight up draw with very minor edges on offense and bullpen to the Mets, while the Astros have minor pitching and defense edges. It’s all very close and the Mets are at home.
Update 1:45 EST: Near 20 mph wind out to left. Only four LHBs (three for Houston). Gain of 5.59% on the Mets. Usually means we're F'd, as it did in Arizona last night.
Athletics @ Diamondbacks
Padres @ Red Sox
Nationals @ Rays
Pirates @ Braves
After the fiasco with the bullpen and the rain in Paul Skenes’ major league debut, he’s only failed to earn a quality start against the Dodgers in his next seven starts. With a 29.3 K-BB% and 6.3% Barrels/BBE, estimators range from a 2.43 SIERA to a 2.65 dERA. Pitch modeling agrees. This guy’s a stud (112 Stuff+, 110 Pitching+). His top pitch is the splitter/splinker/spelunker (30.7%, 4.1 RV/100, 70 PB grade). The Braves perform worst against splitters (-1.41 wFS/C is fifth worst in the league).
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -12
B30: 3.99
Max Fried pitches deep into games with a 14.8 K-BB%, but 60.6 GB%, 4.5% Barrels/BBE and 31.6% hard contact rate. His 3.00 ERA is just below estimators ranging from a 3.01 dERA to a 3.45 SIERA. Pitching Bot believes the curveball is the star (20.9%, -0.8 RV/100, 61). The pitch with the worst run value is the only one exceeding 54 PitchingBot grade to go along with a 4.05 Bot ERA, 97 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ marks. Luckily for him, the Pirates stink against curves (-0.52 wCU/C is fifth worst in the league).
Opp wRC+: 95 (25.5 K%, 90 Road)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.45
Fried has been great and still pales in comparison to Skenes. Despite the elite contact profile, Skenes has a better xERA by 0.7 runs. Also surprising to see that the Pirates have the same wRC+ against LHP that the Braves have against RHP. I’m not only on the Pirates F5, but I’ll go under the total F5 with each pitcher excelling in pitches the other team is awful against.
Update 2:15 EST: Gained 4.86% on PIT F5 (that's more than 3% on all three sides) plus a full run on F5 under.
Cubs @ Brewers
Dodgers @ Giants
Rangers @ Orioles
Tigers @ Angels
Twins @ Mariners
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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