Only a 13 game daily fantasy slate to cover on Friday. I also just noticed there are only three games on Monday, so a full day on Friday, but then not much more content here for the next three days.
Played just one game on Thursday and I probably only have to tell you it went to extra-innings to imply the result. I'd be having a terrific year if I just cashed out every play after the ninth inning. Hmm...that's an idea.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Marlins @ Phillies
Twenty-seven year old Kyle Tyler has thrown 22.1 major league innings since 2021 and 73 of the 90 batters he’s faced have come in a relief role. In 45 innings at AAA, he had a 9.4 K-BB% and has projections around five.
Opp wRC+: 110 (118 Home)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.59
Seven inning quality starts with a total of two runs allowed (one earned) in each of Cristopher Sanchez’s last two starts. Amazing that just one of 13 barrels (5.1%) has become a home run in this park, but a 3.69 xERA is his only estimator above three and a half. Sanchez exceeds a 55 PitchingBot grade on both his changeup and sinker, while the Marlins are just terrible against every pitch anyway.
Opp wRC+: 67 (66 Home)
DEF:--0.5
B30: 2.94
Update 3:20 EST: Upper 79s with an 11 mph wind out to left. Not waiting for lineups today. Too much to do. Phillies are in and they're dropping like flies...Phil..lies? Schwarber and Harper join Realmuto on the IL. The actual lineup averages an exactly even 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year. The first five are still regulars. Welp, Marlins just in. No LHBs. Myers bats fourth. Sanchez another start behind the plate.
Nationals @ Rays
Mitchell Parker has come out of nowhere to turn himself into a perfectly respectable starting pitcher. He’s benefited a bit from an 8.4 HR/FB (seven of 17 barrels), but with estimators ranging only as high as a 4.10 SIERA and dERA.
Opp wRC+: 104 (25.4 K%)
DEF: -18
B30: 3.63
PitchingBot still gives Zach Eflin grades above 55 on all four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time (the Nationals are near bottom of the league in everything except sinkers), while the command pushes a 93 Stuff+ mark up to a 104 Pitching+. He’s only had five starts where he’s issues a walk and only once more than one. All estimators are more than one-third of a run below his 4.20 ERA (69.9 LOB%).
Opp wRC+: 94 (20.5 K%)
DEF:--2.5
B30: 3.72
Rangers @ Orioles
After striking out 17 of the 44 AAA batters he faced, Max Scherzer struck out four of 16 Royals on 57 pitches, though he did face 19 batters in his last rehab start. Scherzer had just an 8.8 SwStr% and as per Statcast, he was sitting at 92.9 mph, nearly a full mph down from last year. Projection systems see him as…an average pitcher. If healthy, he may have a bit more left in the tank than that, but if 93 mph with an average or worse SwStr% is what he’s going to be now, maybe not.
Opp wRC+: 118 (20.5 K%, 122 Home, 163 L7 days)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.60
Albert Suarez has recorded one sixth inning out with a 4.6 K-BB% over 28 innings since being reinserted into the rotation. On the positive he’s allowed just five barrels (5.5%) with a 34.1% hard contact rate and three of them were against Atlanta. With just two of his eight barrels on the season turning into home runs, a 4.19 xERA is Suarez’s closest estimator to a 2.70 ERA (79.8 LOB% too). The one weapon Suarez does have in his arsenal is the changeup (18%, 2.7 RV/100, 63 PB grade), his only above average pitch with just an 88 Stuff+ mark (96 Pitching+) and the Rangers are susceptible to changeups (-0.35 wCH/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 90 (19.8 K%, 87 Road)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.35
DFS Notes: A 13 game Friday night slate includes four protected environment with rain potential in a few spots, but mostly moderate weather across the board with the warmest spots in the state of Missouri, as it’s been for the entire week. Eleven of 26 teams are between 4.25 and 4.5 implied runs with five between 4.75 and 5.25 runs. Seven teams fall below the four run mark with only the Twins, the hottest offense in the league, below three and a half.
We start in Baltimore with temps around 80 and a near 10 mph wind blowing across the field. I’m out on both these pitchers. I don’t think Scherzer looked as good as “experts” proclaimed in his return and there are some things we’ll need to see before trusting him. Meanwhile, Suarez offers low upside in a low upside matchup. The Orioles sit in that middle range (4.40) with the Rangers closer to the bottom (4.10). The Orioles also have the second best bullpen estimators in baseball over the last 30 days behind Suarez, so we’re unwilling to look at Texas bats for the most part. Scherzer’s not really a pitcher we want to attack either, although you can run on him. Perhaps a Baltimore stack or two in multi entry in case he is a bit washed, but there’s not really much of a DFS takeaway from this game.
Update 4:35 EST: O's have gifted Scherzer a lineup without Rutschman, Westburg or Kjerstad. Heim sits for Texas.
Yankees @ Blue Jays
Marcus Stroman does not have a single PitchingBot grade above 50 and even his best pitch grade is a slurve he throws just 12.1% of the time. Add this to 94 Stuff+ and 93 Pitching+ grades and one begins to wonder how he’s posting a 3.15 ERA. It’s not the 7.1 K-BB%, which matches his rate of barrels per batted ball. Part of it’s the 50.2 GB%, but even that’s a career low for him. It’s simply a .245 BABIP that’s 50 points below his career rate and 81.4 LOB% that’s more than nine points above his career rate. Stroman’s best estimator is a 4.31 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.7 K%)
DEF: 13.5
B30: 4.33
It’s rare that Yusei Kikuchi has thrown a stinker this year without a velocity drop (his velo has been highly volatile from game to game this season), but that was the case last time out against the Guardians. He’s now allowed 21 runs (20 earned) over his last 25.1 innings with his only strong starts over this span coming against the Brewers and Orioles (go figure). The difference here is that Kikuchi has done this with a .400 BABIP and seven of 12 barrels (13.8%) leaving the park. Now, that’s still a lot of barrels (9.6% on the season is too) and his 15.1 K-BB% over this run is also three points below his season rate, but the underlying numbers are still far better than Stroman’s. All of Kikuchi’s estimators are below his 4.00 ERA, ranging as low as a 3.36 xFIP and pitch modeling tells a similar story, exactly the opposite of Stroman. Kikuchi h as a fastball (47.7%, 0 RV/100) and curveball (26.6%, 0.7 RV/100) with 65 or better PitchingBot grades. Real elite pitches to go along with 111 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ scores. The curveball is also one of two pitches the Yankees are below average against (-0.08 RV/100).
Opp wRC+: 106 (9.2 K-BB%)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 4.17
Kikuchi has allowed one run to the Yankees over two starts this season (11.1 IP), striking out 16 of 43 batters in addition to the above. Stroman has pitched well against the Blue Jays too, but it’s clear who the better pitcher is here, probably by more than a run. And with current Yankee injuries, the offensive gap may be closer than season numbers too. Both teams have great defenses and bottom third of the league bullpens lately. I can’t fathom why the Blue Jays are home dogs here. I do project the F5 line higher than full game for the Blue Jays, but am forced to take +108 full game without a F5 available, unless I want to risk losing it. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: My default is to assume closed until I see different, but this is a roof that has been open frequently lately with the average run factor rising from 96 to 102 on such occasions. Both teams sit middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs. Stroman is a frustrating pitcher. He doesn’t miss enough bats and this is a lineup that doesn’t swing and miss, but he keeps the ball on the ground enough, along with his frequent good fortune. Horwitz (164 wRC+, .169 ISO v RHP since last season) is my favorite bat here, if he’s near the top of the lineup. Batters from either side are between a .293 and .329 wOBA and xwOBA against Stroman since last year and the entire Yankee rotation has fallen apart, so why not him too? You can run on Stroman and Yankee pen estimators are sixth worst over the last month. Kikuchi is volatile enough that you certainly want some Judge (205, .407) in there (RHBs .334 wOBA, .324 xwOBA since last year). The Toronto pen is also only two spots ahead of the Yankees. The question is, how banged up are the Yankees with Torres and LeMahieu receiving days off this week. The better version of Kikuchi has some value here, if you can embrace the volatility.
Update 4:45 EST: Torres and LeMahieu back. 2.54% gain on TOR.
Astros @ Mets
I’ve seen some smart people who watch more Ronel Blanco than I have heap some praise on him, but I just can’t buy in from the numbers I’m seeing. Let’s start with the 13.5 K-BB%. That’s league average with too many walks (10.2%). If that’s what you want to call him, fine. He’s managed contact well (34.9% hard hit rate), but we don’t know that will stick and still generates a 3.56 xERA more than a run above his 2.34 ERA. That’s his only estimator below four. He’s gotten there with a completely unsustainable .182 BABIP and 88.4 LOB%. Those aren’t even single season outlier numbers. They just don’t happen. Move onto pitch modeling and we have a 59 grade changeup (26.5%, .18 RV/100), but PitchingBot gives his other two pitches the same 46 grade to go along with 95 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ grades. Sorry, I’m just not seeing the above average pitcher here.
Opp wRC+: 111 (20.8 K%, 191 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.70
What’s gotten into Jose Quintana? He’s struck out 14 of his last 46 Padres and Cubs, allowing one earned run and only six hits over 12.1 innings. The command has been on point with a 32.1% hard contact rate as well in these two starts and over the last three starts, his velocity is up half a mph (90.9). Quintana can still do this when consistently hitting his spots, but that’s a very tough thing to do and much more dangerous when you don’t at his velocity. The results are what you see in his season 9.5 K-BB% and 44% hard hit rate. A 5.12 xERA is Quintana’s only estimator more than one-third of a run removed from a 4.58 ERA. As far as pitch modeling goes (82 Stuff+, 93 Pitching+, 5.10 Bot ERA)? Don’t throw your fastball (22%, -2.1 RV/100, 35 PB grade) to the Astros (0.55 wFA/C is third best in the league).
Opp wRC+: 107 (16 K%, 8.1 HR/FB, 140 L7 days)
DEF:--1
B30: 3.53
DFS Notes: Around 70 degrees with a double digit wind blowing out towards the left field pole. Both of these teams are middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs too. You know my feelings on Blanco above. He costs $9.5K and the Mets are on fire. McNeil is the only projected Met not exceeding a 135 wRC+ over the last month! LHBs have a .287 wOBA, but .347 xwOBA against Blanco since last year. I like Nimmo (139 wRC+, .218 ISO v RHP since last season) and Lindor (109, .182) here. Even when he’s on, Quintana doesn’t have enough upside for this spot. He’s likely one of the worst values on the board. Batters from either side are between a .316 and .343 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. The Mets pen is without Diaz, but has top third of the league estimators L30 days. In a negative run environment, I think Alvarez (150, .204) is an interesting one-off here.
Update 4:25 EST: Would have considered going under Quintana's K prop if Wolf (leans pitcher friendly) weren't behind the plate.
Padres @ Red Sox
Randy Vasquez has positive pitch modeling grades (108 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 3.96 Bot ERA), but poor results (4.58 xFIP to 6.78 xERA) behind a 9.0 K-BB% and 10.1% Barrels/BBE. He’s gone more than five innings twice in 10 starts and LHBs exceed a .425 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Not a great spot for him.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.92
Nick Pivetta has struck out just 13 of his last 71 batters (6.4 SwStr%), allowing 10 runs over 15.1 innings, though all four of his barrels (7.7%) have left the park. He pretty much ditched the slider in favor of curveballs against the Phillies and Reds (more LHBs?), while you could say the Blue Jays don’t strike out a lot no matter what he throws? You might think a 125 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ are great over this span, but he had marks of 140 and 111 prior to this. A 20.8 K-BB% with 9.6% Barrels/BBE, Pivetta has a 4.42 FIP that’s above his 4.06 ERA with 12 of 15 barrels turning into home runs, but no other estimators above four. As banged up as they are, it’s not like the Padres are going to offer many more strikeouts either.
Opp wRC+: 121 (18.2 K%, 140 L7days)
DEF:--3
B30: 3.51
DFS Notes: Around 70 degrees with a double digit wind blowing out towards the left field pole. Both of these teams are middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs too. You know my feelings on Blanco above. He costs $9.5K and the Mets are on fire. McNeil is the only projected Met not exceeding a 135 wRC+ over the last month! LHBs have a .287 wOBA, but .347 xwOBA against Blanco since last year. I like Nimmo (139 wRC+, .218 ISO v RHP since last season) and Lindor (109, .182) here. Even when he’s on, Quintana doesn’t have enough upside for this spot. He’s likely one of the worst values on the board. Batters from either side are between a .316 and .343 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. The Mets pen is without Diaz, but has top third of the league estimators L30 days. In a negative run environment, I think Alvarez (150, .204) is an interesting one-off here.
Update 4:15 EST: No surprise from the above, playing BOS o4.5 (-135).
Rockies @ White Sox
A 0.9 K-BB% just isn’t going to cut it. Even if Dakota Hudson does have a 52.1 GB% with 6.1% Barrels/BBE. All estimators within half a run of his 5.63 ERA with a 5.25 Bot ERA and 94 Pitching+ mark. LHBs exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. The White Sox have very few, but RHBs are above .325 too.
Opp wRC+: 75 (74 Home, 55 L7 days)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.53
This will be Drew Thorpe’s fourth major league start and first in Chicago. This young man lives and dies by the changeup (36.5%, 2.5 RV/100) and even that pitch only receives a 48 PitchingBot grade (all others below 35 with a 5.72 Bot ERA). He’s struck out nine of the 66 Tigers, Diamondbacks and Mariners he’s faced with 11 walks and a 53.6 Z-O-Swing%. Projection systems still have him around four and a half though.
Opp wRC+: 80 (25.7 K%, 83 Road)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.68
DFS Notes: Near 80 degrees, but with a double digit wind blowing in from around the right field pole and the most rain risk on the board, the White Sox are middle of the board (4.38) with the Rockies a bit lower (4.12). I have no interest in Thorpe here and any thoughts I had about Hudson as the lowest priced pitcher on the board in an interesting spot are washed away by the rain potential. Pham (105 wRC+, .145 ISO v RHP since last season) and an even cheaper Benintendi (81, .091) might be the most interesting bats here. LHBs are above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Hudson since last season. Benintendi, Jones, Vaughn and Rodgers all exceed a 130 wRC+ L30 days. In a small sample, LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Thorpe too, but if the changeup is what it’s expected to be, that may not last. Neither of these pitcher/catcher combinations is easy to run on and Colorado is the pen you want to attack here (fourth worst estimators L30 days, while Chicago is top third of the league).
Update 3:55 EST: Already mentioned wind blowing in in a park with a 98 neutral run factor on average. I'm playing u8.5 (+102) here. It's all about the bats. Hilliard returns for the Rockies.
Pirates @ Braves
Martin Perez returns from more than a month long stay on the IL with a groin injury and the question is why? With a 10.5 K-BB% and 46.8% hard contact rate (9.6% Barrels/BBE), estimators averaged nearly five, along with a 71 Stuff+ mark. Every pitch he’s thrown more than 10% of the time receives a PitchingBot grade below 45, while RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. He struck out four of 19 in his lone rehab start.
Opp wRC+: 109 (110 Home)
DEF: -19.5
B30: 3.99
Charlie Morton is throwing his curveball 40.4% of the time these days (0.9 RV/100, 59 PB grade) and that’ll work here because the Pirates can’t hit it (-0.52 wCU/C is bottom five in the league). Morton has otherwise allowed 19 runs (18 earned) over his last 28.1 innings and that’s with a pair of quality starts totaling a single run in there too. Beatings have come at the hands of the Yankees and Nationals (twice). His hard hit rate is up to 48.7% over this span, though still below 40% on the season. However a 10.5 BB% and 9.1% Barrels/BBE is a dangerous combination, though all estimators are within a quarter run of his 4.20 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 83 (24.7 K%)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.41
DFS Notes: Mid-80s, but a near double digit wind in from center seems like business as usual in Atlanta. The Braves top the board at 5.25 implied runs with the Pirates tied for fourth from the bottom (3.75). Morton has some value as an expensive arm here. Just four projected batters for the Pirates above a 90 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and just three above a 90 wRC+ L30 days overall. Only two below a 21 K% against RHP since last season too. Tough to run on Morton/Murphy and the Braves relievers have the third best estimators in the league last 30 days. That said, batters from either side of the plate are between a .311 and .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Morton since last year. I don’t hate McCutchen (115 wRC+ .152 ISO v RHP since last season, 124 wRC+ L30 days) or Reynolds (124, .224, 155) here. RHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Perez since last year with LHBs within two points of .310. With Bednar on the IL, Pirates relievers have bottom third of the league estimators L30 days. Stack all the Braves you can afford. All exceed a 100 wRC+ and .165 ISO v LHP since last season, but Murphy (124, .206) is the only one I landed on in single-entry. He’s around $3K and only behind Sal Perez for me at the catcher position. I found additional Atlanta bats too expensive for what I wanted to do with pitching and Boston bats seem to fit better.
Update 5 EST: Vanover leans hitter friendly. Enough to push ATL o4.5 (-140) over the top for me.
Guardians @ Royals
Triston McKenzie has allowed 21 runs over his last 26 innings with 11 home runs on 13 barrels (16.9%) over this span (45.5% hard contact rate). The odd thing is his 10.2 K-BB% is an improvement on his 7.7% season mark and he has an 83.3 LOB% during this run! It’s just that one-quarter of his fly balls are leaving the park. He even came out throwing harder than any game this season last time out (92.9 mph) and still got smoked. Some may say this must regress, but McKenzie throws just three pitches and all have PitchingBot grades below 40 to go along with a 91 Pitching+ mark.
Opp wRC+: 94 (19.5 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.68
Alec Marsh can occasionally be effective when he’s not just tossing pitches right down the pipe, but that hasn’t been nearly often enough. He’s allowed 24 runs over his last 32.2 innings and that’s despite one-hitting the Yankees and shutting them out over seven innings. Marsh has just a 59.6 LOB% and 15.5 K-BB% over this span that exceeds his 14.5% season rate. The major problem is in 14 barrels (too many meatballs) and 48.5% hard contact rate. Ditch the FIP with just nine of 22 barrels turning into home runs and we come up with all estimators within one-third of a run of his 4.40 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 105 (18.5 K%, 140 L7 days)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 4.38
Do I trust Marsh to hit his corners against the Guardians? No. However, I trust McKenzie to do anything useful even less. Giving the offensive edge, but taking some of it back on defense, I’ll side with the home team and avoid a great pen for -102 F5.
DFS Notes: Mid-80s with a near double digit wind out towards the left field pole. Both teams are tied for the fourth highest team total at 4.75 runs. While Marsh could be successful if he hits his spots, I don’t have any interest in pitching in this spot. There’s upside to risk ration does not match up favorably. Batters from either side are between a .330 to .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Marsh since last season, while only Gimenez and Fry below a 110 wRC+ among projected Guardians over the last 30 days. Royals pen estimators are also bottom third of the league L30 days with McArthur (33) working lightly in three of the last four. Kwan (126 wRC+, .139 ISO v RHP since last season) and Schneemann (118, .179) are my favorite Guardians. You certainly want some stack exposure to both offenses in multi entry. Batters from either side are between a .325 and .375 wOBA and xwOBA against McKenzie since last year too. I view Witt (125, .220) and Perez (104, .181) as top players at their position, but at a hefty price against a strong bullpen. McKenzie and Naylor can be run on though. Pasquantino (104, .201) and Melendez (96, .191) look good here too.
Update 5:05 EST: Temp increase to near 90 with 11 mph wind out to left. Lean towards teh over if I didn't already have KC. 4% gain on KC F5.
Cubs @ Brewers
Jameson Taillon got away with some very hittable pitches against a red hot Mets offense before turning it on in the middle innings and striking out a season high 10 of 27 batters. He’s allowed just three runs over his last 19 innings, while a 19.8 K-BB% over his last four starts increases his season rate to a near league average 12.8%. Even with a 34.1% hard contact rate, Taillon’s best estimator (3.64 xERA) is three-quarters of a run above his 2.90 ERA. Six of his 28 runs have been unearned. Taillon’s 88 Stuff+ works all the way up to a 105 Pitching+ (3.58 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 114 (118 Home)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.49
With five runs, two home runs and no strikeouts last time out, perhaps they should open, bulk and close for Colin Rea, yet he’s listed as the starter here. Rea is still rocking the .254 BABIP and 79.4 LOB% keeping his 3.62 ERA more than a run below all estimators, supported by 85 Stuff+ and 96 Pitching+ grades. Both of these pitchers have large platoon splits with LHBs above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against them since last season.
Opp wRC+: 96 (24.4 K%)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.80
DFS Notes: The Brewers will open the roof in decent weather, but the run factor is 98 on average either way, though right-handed power increases with an open roof. The Cubs (3.99) are bottom quarter of the board with the Brewers at 4.5 implied runs. For more than $8K, I don’t trust Taillon to repeat his performance against the Mets in another tough spot and we mentioned above how LHBs punish Rea. Busch (109 wRC+, .178 ISO v RHP since last season) and Happ (124, .187) are my favorite Cubs, each exceeding a 140 wRC+ over the last month. Rea can be run on too. On the other side, LHBs have a .348 wOBA and .363 xwOBA against Taillon since last year. Yelich (140, .183) is a top outfielder on this slate with Bauers (98, .211) having some value too. RHBs have a .285 wOBA and xwOBA against Taillon over the same span. Hoskins and Contreras are the only projected Brewers below a 110 wRC+ L30 days, Taillon/Amaya can be run on and the Cubs have the fifth worst pen estimators over the last 30 days.
Update 5:45 EST: Roof closed. Monasterio/Perkins in for Bauers/Ortiz
Reds @ Cardinals
Frankie Montas has five quality starts, including three of his last five, over which he still has an ERA above four. It’s been a very inconsistent season for him, generating just a 9.0 K-BB%, but 5.9% Barrels/BBE with an 18.1 IFFB%. Having more popups (13) than barrels (12) is kind of a big deal in Cincinnati. Yet, a 4.42 xERA is Montas’s only estimator below a 4.48 ERA with a 5.09 dERA the only one running more than one-fifth of a run higher. Pitch modeling sees a perfectly average pitcher (100 Stuff+ and Pitching+, 4.12 Bot ERA with all PB grades between 48 and 54).
Opp wRC+: 106 (105 Home) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.63
Over five game starts, Andre Pallante has a 56.1 GB% with a 31.8% hard contact rate (1 barrel) with just a 10.3 K-BB%. Pallante has a 4.76/3.99 FIP/3.86 xFIP as a starter this year (.344 BABIP), but RHBs have a .411 wOBA, .342 xwOBA against him in his career (LHBs below .300) and pitch modeling wants no part of his arsenal. With 90 Stuff+ and 92 Pitching+ marks, Pallante also has a 5.44 Bot ERA without a single pitch reaching a 45 PB grade.
Opp wRC+: 87 (25.6 K%)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.88
DFS Notes: Mid-to-upper 80s with a 10 mph wind out towards the left field pole. The Cardinals are middle of the board (4.4) with the Reds closer to the bottom (4.1). I feel marginally about Montas for just $6.5K on DK. He could cover that, but have no interest in the Pallante. We spoke about his reverse split above and that makes India (108 wRC+, .156 ISO v RHP since last season) the strongest play here. He has a 186 wRC+ over the last 30 days. LHBs are at .368 and .371 against Montas with RHBs at .280 or below. Burleson (113, .175) and Donovan (128, .168) are bats of interest here. At a wRC+ of 130 and 161 respectively over the last 30 days, they’re the only projected Cardinals above 101. Montas holds runners well, but Stephenson is one of the worst throwers, so that evens out.
Update 5:20 EST: Crawford in for Siani. Donovan bats leadoff. Entire middle of the Cincinnati LU overhauled. Candelario/Fraley/Stephenson out, Martini/Marte/Maile in.
Tigers @ Angels
Seven straight non-quality starts for Kenta Maeda (25.1 IP, 20 ER, 7.1 K-BB%, 9.6% Barrels/BBE). The only positive take away is that he’s been sitting about a mph above his season average over his last three starts. The fastball remains an uncompetitive pitch (-3 RV/100, 38 PB grade) that he continues to throw more than one-quarter of the time. On a positive note, the splitter (28.6%, -0.1 RV/100), the only pitch he throws more, receives a 54 PB grade. Overall, Maeda’s 89 Stuff+ mark works up only to a 97 Pitching+ with a 4.64 Bot ERA, which is below, but fairly well in line with most non-FIP estimators. Having 11 of 16 barrels leave the park is a bit of a surprise in Detroit.
Opp wRC+: 92 (incl. Thu)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.49
Nine runs over 9.1 innings for Zach Plesac with more home runs (four) and walks (three) than strikeouts (two). He’s allows an insane 10 barrels (27.8%). That’s more than one an inning! Projection systems have him above five. In a small sample, LHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Detroit was shut out as the top projected offense last night. Let’s see what happens here.
Opp wRC+: 91 (24.3 K%, 84 Road)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.84
DFS Notes: We begin the west coast portion of our slate in the low 70s with a light wind out to left-center. The Tigers are at 4.5 runs again, despite being shut out under similar conditions last night. The same for the Angels, who actually put up five on Flaherty. We have two of the worst pitchers on the board here, but the Tigers have the fourth best bullpen estimators in the league over the last 30 days. RHBs are within four points of a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Maeda since last year though. O’Hoppe (112 wRC+, .215 ISO v RHP since last season) is the most interesting bat here, but below a few other catchers. Riley Greene (141, .209) is the only projected Tiger above a 105 wRC+ or .175 ISO v RHP since last season and only one above an 88 wRC+ L30 days (141). Non the less, Plesac does not appear to be a major league caliber pitcher anymore and the Angels have the third worst pen estimators over the last 30 days. I think you need to have some exposure to Detroit bats here and Keith (74, .096) is probably my favorite value purely by virtues of matchup, cost and spot in the order.
Update 6:35 EST: Tigers lagging again. Pillar & Guillorme in for Sano & Calhoun.
Athletics @ Diamondbacks
J.P. Sears is up to a 5.04 ERA with a matching 4.96 FIP and that’s with just 12 of his 27 barrels (9.9%) leaving the park, which he can probably thank Oakland for. The strikeout rate is down to 12.2% over his last six starts (3.6 K-BB%) and 15.4% on the season. In fact, a 5.80 dERA is the only estimator more than one-third of a run removed from his ERA. Sears has an excellent sweeper (29.7%, 0.7 RV/100, 62 PB grade) and that could work against Arizona (-0.9 wSL/C is third worst in baseball), though, on the other hand, they hammer LHP.
Opp wRC+: 114 (107 Home)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 4.76
Since being punished by the Angels, Slade Cecconi has allowed one run over nine innings to the Nationals and Phillies. He’s only completed six innings once over his last seven starts and has an 18.5 K% on the season (7.6 SwStr%) with 10.7% Barrels/BBE, but a 4.1 BB% is holding all non-FIP estimators more than four-fifths of a run below his 5.74 ERA. That’s because 12 of his 18 barrels have left the yard, along with a 66.4 LOB%. Pitch modeling is very high on Cecconi (104 Pitching+, 3.00 Bot ERA), grading his fastball (55.2%, -1.3 RV/100) at 66, while Oakland is a bottom quarter of the league offense against heaters (-0.52 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 93 (26.7 K%)
DEF: 19.5
B30: 5.03
The Diamondbacks (-142 F5) have the worst bullpen in the league over the last month and I want no part of it, but massive offensive and defensive edges here, while Cecconi has estimators more than half a run better than Sears too.
DFS Notes: We already know the roof is closed (if only they all could be like the Diamondbacks), which gives us a slightly negative run environment (96). Cecconi is cheap enough in a high enough upside spot to take a few shots with if you want to stack Braves on DK. Sears is just $5.6K and…meh. RHBs are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and the Diamondbacks are third from the top at 4.8 runs. Suarez and Herrera are the only pair of projected Diamondbacks below a 100 wRC+ v LHP since last season. Marte, Grichuk and Walker all exceed 125 and a .225 ISO as well. The former two also exceed a 175 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Sears is one of the worst holders of runners and the Oakland pen has the second worst estimators in the league last 30 days. Miller has pitched just once all week though. RHBs exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Cecconi since last year with LHBs above .310 and Arizona the worst bullpen estimators in the game last 30 days. That’s right. Worst pens in the league right here in this game. However, Cecconi does hold runners well. Rooker, Langeliers and Gelof are the right-handed A’s exceeding a 100 wRC+ and .220 ISO v RHP since last season.
Update 5:55 EST: Some bottom of the lineup hijinks for both teams. Massive 5.86% gain on ARI F5.
Twins @ Mariners
Bailey Ober has found “it”, striking out 18 of his last 55 batters, throwing his first two quality starts in over a month, both against Oakland. So, has he really found “it” or has he found Oakland? His 19.5 SwStr% over this span brings his season rate up to a healthy 13.1% with a 19.1 K-BB% to go with 9.8% Barrels/BBE. With 14 of 22 barrels leaving the yard, estimators ranging from a 3.68 SIERA to a 4.19 FIP average above half a run below his 4.50 ERA. Significant park upgrade for him here, where it should be a bit easier to keep his fly balls in the yard, while the Mariners (-0.52 wCH/C is fourth worst) should be susceptible to his elite changeup (24.5%, -0.6 RV/100, 69 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 98 (28 K%) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.81
Logan Gilbert not only has four straight quality starts, but has allowed just five runs (four earned) over 29.2 innings in them with a 25.7 K-BB%. That’s one out shy of at least seven innings in all four and eight innings in each of his last two. He’s faced four of the worst offenses in the league over this span (A’s, White Sox, Rangers, Marlins) and gets a severely tougher test here, but you can only ask for a pitcher to dominate the teams he’s supposed to and Gilbert has done just that. Season estimators are all above his 2.71 ERA, but below three and a half (.233 BABIP), while pitch modeling really likes what it sees. A 118 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+, along with a 3.47 Bot ERA and all PitchingBot grades between 55 and 60 are independent of opponent.
Opp wRC+: 108 (107 Road, 150 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.74
DFS Notes: The most negative run environment in baseball roof open or closed, the problem is that it’s more negative with it closed, but they never tell us. Regardless, the Mariners (3.67) and Twins (3.33) are the only two offenses below the A’s (3.7) and I’m going pure pitching here. These are my top two pitchers on the board and does it surprise you that I have Ober slightly higher. His sub-$9K cost on DK allows me to roster both of these pitchers too. Interestingly, Rojas is the only batter projected from both sides below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year and he’s at 96. He and France are the only pair below a .160 ISO over the same span, but the worst split for either pitcher is Ober vs RHBs since last season (.322 wOBA, .308 xwOBA), though he and Jeffers are harder to run on. Both teams have middle of the road pens, but starting pitching in a great environment is what we’re interested here, Ober in an extremely high upside matchup.
Update 5:15 EST: Slightly hitter friendly DeJesus behind the plate. Haniger in for Raley plays towards Ober's reverse split. Vazquez/Margot in for Jeffers/Buxton (all RHBs). Still have Ober, Gilbert top two pitchers on the slate.
Dodgers @ Giants
Landon Knack has not allowed more than two runs in any of his five starts, but has only gone beyond five innings once. A .183 BABIP and 91.7 LOB% are doing most of the heavy lifting on a 2.10 ERA with just a 9.8 K-BB% and 47.3% hard contact rate. Oddly, because he’s generated more popups (five) than barrels (four) a 3.27 xERA is his only non-FIP estimator below four and a half. Pitch modeling doesn’t hate him with a 100 Stuff+ mark (97 Pitching+) with a 54 PitchingBot grade on both his fastball (44.6%, 1 RV/100) and slider (25.4%, 0.9 RV/100).
Opp wRC+: 96 (incl. Thu)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.67
A 20.9 K-BB% over his last seven starts raises Logan Webb’s season mark to 15.7%, though he’s allowed 15 barrels (11.4%) with a 48.5% hard hit rate over this span. With more than half his contact on the ground, Webb is still running just a 3.33 ERA during this run, but a quarter of his non-ground ball contact has been barreled. On the season, that leads to a 4.33 xERA that’s nearly a run above all other estimators, which are within half a run of his 3.16 ERA. Just five of 27 barrels have left the park, which is one of the perks of playing half your games in San Francisco. Pitch modeling likes what Webb is throwing (112 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+), including PitchingBot grades exceeding 60 on both his changeup (35.1%, 0.8 RV/100) and sweeper (21.6%, 0.8 RV/100).
Opp wRC+: 117 (120 Road)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.49
DFS Notes: Temps below 60 with a near double digit wind out to left is just normal San Francisco evening weather. The Dodgers and Giants both sit at 3.75 runs. Knack costs $8K on DK. No thank you. Webb seems appropriately valued at $9K. Great environment and a substantial increase in K-BB%, but too much hard contact in a difficult spot. The Giants have the fifth best pen estimators over the last 30 days, while the Dodgers are upper half of the league. Ohtani (204 wRC+, .381 ISO v RHP since last season) is the only interesting bat in this game, despite Webb’s reverse split (RHBs .296 wOBA, .314 xwOBA since last season with LHBs below .300).
Update 6:45 EST: Wade back. Soler bats leadoff. Wisely dropped to eighth.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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