Is DraftKings still in the business of posting baseball lines? All starters were known prior to 7 PM EST and here it is more than four hours later and they've only posted five of nine games for Thursday with no F5 lines again. Even FanDuel only has five F5 lines so far.
DraftKings is only running a four game night slate tomorrow with FanDuel starting earlier with six. I'm unsure if I'll be posting daily fantasy notes and regardless, any updates won't come until later in the afternoon due to a noon dentist appointment.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Twins @ Diamondbacks
I’ll say it just one time. It’s a David Festa for the resta us. All via Fangraphs, the 24 year-old right-hander is the fourth best prospect in the Minnesota organization and 93rd best overall with a 50 Future Value grade. Ironically, Fangraphs just posted their Twins list today. He’s a slider first pitcher, sometimes even throwing his changeup more often than his fastball with projected upside of a mid-rotation starter. Speaking of projections, averaging barely north of four isn’t bad at all, while he’s posted a 23.4 K-BB% over 59.2 AAA innings this year.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.87
Jordan Montgomery has struck out 12 of his last 45 batters, shutting down the White Sox, but then also the Phillies over his last two starts. He has a healthy 13.7 SwStr% over his last six starts, though just a 17.9 K% and 9.6 K-BB% over this span. He also hasn’t averaged below 91.9 mph in any of his last six starts after not having reached that high in any of his first six. Things are trending in the right direction and maybe we’ll start seeing some estimators drop below four and a half soon.
Opp wRC+: 123 (19.8 K%, 129 L7 days)
DEF: 20
B30: 5.09
Update 1:55 EST: Roof closed. No lineup surprises. Newman in for Suarez.
Cubs @ Giants
Seven and 10 run outings for Shota Imanaga with five home runs on nine barrels in those two starts alone. There are a pair of starts where he recorded at least 20 outs with two runs or less in between too, but we were always worried what might happen to an extreme fly ball pitcher once the wind starting blowing out at Wrigley (though his first blowup was in Milwaukee). Imanaga has now allowed 10% Barrels/BBE to go with a 21.4 K-BB%. Estimators ranging from a 3.24 FIP to a 3.87 xERA are still a bit above his 2.96 ERA. Maybe this park will be less of a home run threat, but it probably plays a bit more hitter friendly than usual during the day. Great command takes Imanaga’s 91 Stuff+ mark up to a 104 Pitching+ and produces a 3.47 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 118
DEF: -3
B30: 4.67
Jordan Hicks has walked 12 of his last 83 batters and has also recorded only one sixth inning out over his last 10 starts, but he keeps the ball on the ground (51.7%), which allows him to produce estimators ranging from a 4.01 dERA to a 4.51 xERA, despite an 11.1 K-BB%. That said, very likely regression on the 77.7 LOB% with a 3.24 ERA that’s more than three-quarters of a run below his best estimator. Hicks trends the opposite of Imanaga with a 107 Stuff+ grade working down to a 100 Pitching+ and 4.13 Bot ERA. All three pitches receive PitchingBot grades of either 50 or 51.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.5 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.47
Even a regressed Imanaga is about half a run better than Hicks, but the Giants have some dangerous right-handed power and large defensive and bullpen edges to go along with it. Home team at -102. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 2 EST: Nearly 70 degrees in San Francisco is like a heat wave. No lineup surprises. Nido in for Amaya. Superior defensive catcher. A small 1.42% gain on CHC, though F5 has moved in favor of the Cubs. As mentioned above, the bullpen is San Franc's real advantage. Back to back days for Doval & Ty Rogers, but fewer than 30 pitches each.
Braves @ White Sox
Chris Sale continues to beast, striking out eight of 18 Yankees, though only lasting five innings with one run. He has eight outings of at least seven innings and fewer than six strikeouts just once on the season. His 2.91 ERA is ABOVE all estimators. Sale has a 56 grade fastball (37.6%) and 57 grade slider (40.6%) via PitchingBot, while the White Sox are the worst offense in the league against both pitches.
Opp wRC+: 80 (24 K%, 76 Home)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.32
This will be Drew Thorpe’s fourth major league start and first in Minnesota. This young man lives and dies by the changeup (36.5%, 2.5 RV/100) and even that pitch only receives a 48 PitchingBot grade (all others below 35 with a 5.72 Bot ERA). He’s struck out nine of the 66 Tigers, Diamondbacks and Mariners he’s faced with 11 walks and a 53.6 Z-O-Swing%. Projection systems still have him around four and a half though.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24 K%, 93 Road)
DEF: -13
B30: 3.86
Update 2:25 EST: Just below 70 with a double digit wind across the field. Maldonado in for Lee. Drew Thorpe has morphed into Chad Kuhl and not because he wears shades. Kuhl has projections above five and that's about as deep as I'm willing to go on him.
Marlins @ Phillies
Trevor Rogers has allowed 10 runs over his last 29.2 innings, but his 8.5 K-BB% over this span is the same as his season rate (8.2%) with even more barrels (10.2%). It’s been an unsustainable .238 BABIP and 85 LOB% that’s been aiding him. On the season (8.2 K-BB%), his 4.90 ERA is within half a run of all estimators and below a 5.08 xERA. The one word to describe his slider (21.8%, -1.8 RV/100, 38 PB grade) would be “Yuck” and he’s in for some pain if he throws it at his normal usage rate at the Phillies (0.41 wSL/C is fourth best in the league).
Opp wRC+: 118 (117 Home, 134 L7 days)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.71
Fourteen of Zach Wheeler’s 22 runs over his last nine starts have come in two starts. He has seven starts of at least seven innings with two runs or less. He’s been above his season average 95.1 mph velocity in six of his last seven starts too. A 19.8 K-BB% and 32.1% hard contact rate produces estimators ranging from a 2.90 xERA to a 3.61 dERA, mostly about a half run above his 2.73 ERA. A .231 BABIP is about 50 to 60 points below recent seasons and his career rate. Wheeler exceeds 60 PitchingBot grades on his fastball, sinker and sweeper, while the Marlins are a bottom five offense against all five pitches, yet they were one of the teams that smoked him for six runs in the middle of May because baseball happens sometimes.
Opp wRC+: 82 (5.7 BB%, 67 Road)
DEF: 2
B30: 2.92
Update 3:35 EST: Mid-80s, near double digit wind in from left. Wheeler competes with Flaherty for top arm if you're playing on FD. RHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Rogers since last season with LHBs above .310 too. The entire Philadelphia pen pitched Wednesday, but all fewer than 20 pitches and only Soto two days in a row.
Rangers @ Orioles
After the Mets thumped him for nine runs, including his second straight start allowing nine barrels, Jon Gray bounced back to allow just four hard hit batted balls over six two hit innings against the Royals, but this was also a case of “why didn’t the Royals smoke all the of the meatballs he threw” too. Having struck out just 19 of his last 107 batters, Gray’s strikeout rate is down to 22.7% (16.3 K-BB%) and he’s now up to 9% Barrels/BBE. With just five of his 19 barrels leaving the park, a 2.96 FIP matches a 3.03 ERA, but additional estimators range from a 3.68 xFIP to a 4.30 xERA. Getting even dirtier, Gray is fastball (42.8%, -0.5 RV/100)/slider (45.4%, 1.7 RV/100) nearly 90% of the time and both pitches receive just 46 PitchingBot grades The Orioles are a top five fastball smashing team (0.53 wFA/C) and top half of the league team against sliders as well. They also generally line up with six LHBs with batters from that side less susceptible to Gray’s sliders with a .334 wOBA and .347 xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 117 (121 Home, 158 L7 days)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.57
Seven strikeouts for Corbin Burnes two starts back was just the third time he’s exceeded six this season. The 23.9 K% is disappointing, but next to a 6.1 BB% and 30.4% hard contact rate, Burnes is still producing estimators ranging from a 2.77 xERA to a 3.55 SIERA, all a bit higher than his 2.35 ERA (.252 BABIP, 80.5 LOB%, five unearned runs). Burnes is still a pitch modeling favorite (117 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+, 3.26 Bot ERA) with the cutter, slider and curve (over 80% of his pitches) all receiving PitchingBot grades between 59 and 61. While the Rangers can also line up with six from the left side often, Burnes actually has a reverse split (LHBs .227 wOBA, .251 xwOBA since last year).
Opp wRC+: 91 (19.7%, 87 Road)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.45
Update 4:30 EST: Light wind in from left, mid-80s. Santander sits. Have a slight lean towards BAL o2.5 (+124) (F5). TEX pen estimators have improved over the last month and they have a solid defense.
Yankees @ Blue Jays
The Braves and Red Sox have shelled Carlos Rodon for 13 runs over his last 8.2 innings. They put seven more barrels on the board against him (20.6%), bringing his season rate up to 10.5% (43.4% hard contact rate). Only one-third of Rodon’s contact has been on the ground and even with a 15.8 K-BB%, all estimators are above four, ranging as high as a 4.94 dERA. The good news is that pitch modeling still thinks Rodon has the goods (121 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+), including a 63 PitchingBot grade on his fastball (52.1%, 1.1 RV/100). The Blue Jays are a bottom quarter of the league offense against heaters (-0.51 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 83 (7.8 K-BB%, 5.9 HR/FB)
DEF: 14
B30: 4.10
Jose Berrios has allowed 12 runs over his last 16.2 innings, striking out just eight of 71 Brewers and Guardians. He is now facing his fourth tough matchup in a row, but catching the Yankees at the best possible time. With just a 17.5 K% and 42.4% hard contact rate, Berrios still runs a 3.43 ERA at least four-fifths of a run below all estimators, though in his cast, there is no pitch modeling absolution (92 Stuff+). The only positive is that he’s allowed six home runs over those last three starts with just four barrels.
Opp wRC+: 124 (11.1 K-BB%, 16.5 HR/FB)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.21
DFS Notes: Just a few short paragraphs today, covering the four game slate on DraftKings. One dome game, where the roof is frequently open and it increases the run environment, but the twitter account covering it has been lacking. Two games in Missouri with moderate, slightly hitter friendly weather and then a run neutral, power friendly park in Los Angeles (AL). The Yankees and Tigers top the board at a bit above four and a half implied runs with the Guardians and Royals middle of the board at exactly 4.25. All other offenses are four runs or below.
I found myself immediately rostering Flaherty as the top pitcher on the night and I fully expect most players to do the same. Without a clear second choice (I would go Rodon if forced to choose), I built a lineup that ended up DET/STL/TOR combo (which would make it hard to roster Rodon, even if I could afford him, but he’s been power prone) with enough left over for Wacha, who would have been my third choice anyway. So these things work out. I will try to add additional notes as lineups come out that may help with DFS.
Update 4:45 EST: Roof open it seems. Not confirmed, but saw two mentions. Jansen out. IKF bats second. Why bat your worst hitter second? It must be 80s night. Maybe we'll even see a sacrifice bunt. Torres, who was just getting a day off yesterday, gets another day off. LeMahieu out too. You can attack the Toronto pen, but you can't run on Berrios/Kirk. Schneider loses some value, but is still fine with the drop in the LU (RHBs .342 wOBA, .345 xwOBA v Rodon since last year, still .326 wOBA this year). Yankee pen bottom third of the league estimators L30 days too and was torched by the Mets last two nights.
Reds @ Cardinals
Andrew Abbot struck out 10 of 22 Red Sox last time out with a season high 16.7 SwStr%, only his fourth game in double digits this year. He didn’t change his pitch usage or throw at a higher velocity. He got most of those whiffs on a below average four-seamer (54.7%, 0.8 RV/100, 46 PB grade) that has just an 18.3 Whiff% (misses per swing) on the season. This latest endeavor drives his season strikeout rate up to an even 20%, though strong contact management (31.6% hard contact) generates a 3.20 xERA that’s actually below Abbott’s 3.40 ERA with all other estimators more than a run higher. With a 91 Stuff+ mark and 96 Pitching+, I don’t expect this start against Boston to be a launching pad for Abbott.
Opp wRC+: 75 (20.1 K%, 7.4 HR/FB, 134 L7 days)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.47
When the balls find gloves, Miles Mikolas (18.4 K%, 4.6 BB%) is going to be fine. He’s gone at least six innings in six straight starts with just a 32% hard hit rate, lowing his season rate below 40% (39.5%), generating a 4.02 xERA that matches both his xFIP (4.02) and FIP (4.06). The problem is an ERA more than half a run higher (4.68), the result of a 66.9 LOB%. Excellent command runs an 88 Stuff+ mark up to a 101 Pitching+ with a 3.66 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 86 (25.9 K%)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.96
Update 5 EST: Mid-80s, slight breeze in from right-center. Gabe Morales slight pitcher lean. Cards just a pair of LHBs against Abbott, who has a 60+ point split. Martine & Marte (back from suspension) in for Fraley and Candelario. Cards can run on Abbott/Stephenson. I still like the top three RHBs (Winn, Contreras and Goldy) here. Helsley (56) has worked three of last four.
Guardians @ Royals
Despite only completing six innings three times this year, Ben Lively has turned himself into a much more productive pitcher than anyone thought he’d be. A league average 13.8 K-BB% and near average contact profile promotes estimators ranging from a 3.72 xERA to a 4.39 FIP that are mostly a run above his 3.03 ERA with an 87.3 LOB%. We need to watch a strikeout rate that is down to 17% over his last five starts (9.4 K-BB%) in conjunction with some poor pitch modeling grades, including a 74 Stuff+ mark, 95 Pitching+ and 4.44 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 93 (19.5 K%, 109 Home, 45 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.51
Michael Wacha may be a best case scenario for a guy like Drew Thorpe. An elite changeup (32.5%, 1.8 RV/100, 79 PB grade) should make the fastball (23.1%, -3 RV/100, 61 PB grade) play better, though you can tall from the run value that that’s not the case. Another issue here is that Cleveland hits both of those pitches well. Wacha made a successful return from nearly a month long IL stay, striking out five of 19 Rangers, allowing only a single run over five innings. His 13.2 K-BB% nearly matches Lively, the difference being that Wacha has been more successful in contact management (6.0% Barrels/BBE, 35.5% hard hit rate), resulting in just slightly better estimators ranging from a 3.59 xERA to a 4.52 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 106 (18.4 K%, 105 Road, 152 L7 days)
DEF: 15
B30: 4.39
Update 5:15 EST: Mid-80s, wind blowing across the field. Estabrook is a pitcher friendly umpire. Guardians just six LHBs. Gimenez bats sixth, Schneemann second. Despite the changeup, Wacha does not have a reverse split since last year. Very little split at all, but Statcast gives him a very minor reverse one (less than 10 points). Scheemann (135 wRC+, .189 ISO v RHP) becomes a great value. Only on Wacha here because he's second cheapest. Tough to run on, but KC pen sixth worst estimators L30 days after Wacha's gone. Cleveland pen is not one you want to attack, although they were heavily worked before having yesterday off for the most part. Two of last three for McArthur, but only 25 pitches.
Tigers @ Angels
After concerns arose about Jack Flaherty’s back issues, justified by a drop of more than a mph in velocity over his last three starts (92.6 mph vs 93.8 mph previously), he at least somewhat quelled them by striking out eight of 24 White Sox while increasing 0.7 mph on average from his previous start (though still more than half a mph below his season average). He also had previously competed six innings in all but one start, while not doing so once over this three start stretch. Flaherty is still sitting on a 29.3 K-BB% on the season with just 6% Barrels/BBE allowed. His 2.92 ERA is above all estimators and by more than half a run on some that are contact neutral. Pitch modeling is buying into command (104 Pitching+) over stuff (96 Stuff+) with the slider and curveball generating whiff rates above 40%.
Opp wRC+: 91 (59 L7 days)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.55
Davis Daniel threw 12.1 major league innings over three long relief appearances in 2023 with as many walks as strikeouts. The 27 year-old 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs), 16th ranked prospect for the Angels has been delayed by injuries projects to be a swing man of some type. In 76 innings at AAA, he has a respectable 16.9 K-BB%.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.3 K%, 86 Road)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.73
Update 6:30 EST: No DET LU, but closing the book on Thursday. Sano in the cleanup spot increases strikeouts for Flaherty further. Low 70s, near double digit wind out to left-center.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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