This may be the single most difficult day of baseball I've ever had to write up. Probably punishment for missing Tuesday. I started with six TBD pitchers on MLB.com at 7 PM EST. Instead of decreasing, that number had increased to eight less than two hours later with not only already confirmed pitchers swapping, but several best guesses by Roster Resource being off too. The baseball gods also decided to add a double-header in the meantime.
I'm not sure how I'll handle updates for Wednesday and whether I'll be able to manage daily fantasy notes or not. It depends on how many games remain on the slate and how many pitchers are swapping in or out. There are still five TBDs on MLB.com as of 11 PM EST and they're not even the same ones we started with. What a mess.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Mariners @ Rays
George Kirby hasn’t allowed more than two runs in five straight starts, completing seven innings twice in that span. He’s registering a 21.3 K-BB% and 35.5% hard contact rate, but 9.2% Barrels/BBE, which has accounted for 26.3% of his hard contact, though only 11 of his 25 barrels have left the park because Seattle. Yet, all estimators are still below, but within one-third of a run of his 3.47 ERA, while flourishing with 106 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades, along with a 3.18 Bot ERA. All PItchingBot grades are in the 50s or 60s, capped off by a 67 grade sinker (23.2%, 1.1 RV/100), which should be a major asset against the Rays (-0.5 wSI/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 96 (96 Home)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.37
The tremendously talented Ryan Pepiot simply has not been able to command his pitches in Atlanta and Pittsburgh his last two times out, resulting in seven runs over eight innings, but more importantly, seven strikeouts and walks each, along with four barrels. Now up to 10.1% Barrels/BBE on the season with a 19.3 K-BB%, all non-FIP estimators (11 home runs on 17 barrels) are more than half a run below his 4.61 ERA. It’s no surprise that pitch modeling seems him as the better talent than Kirby (118 Stuff+), but lesser command, though even a 104 Pitching+ is quite complimentary. A 3.70 Bot ERA is supported by a 70 grade changeup (21.8%, -3.9 RV/100), which has over a 50 point gap between its wOBA (.371) and xwOBA (.316). It’s likely a pitch the Mariners won’t like seeing (-0.55 wCH/C is fifth worst MLB).
Opp wRC+: 99 (27.9 K%, 95 Road)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.83
I have neither F5, nor team totals available as of this writing, so I guess I’m going with the full game under here. Each team’s offensive numbers are slightly sub-par both against RHP and Hm/Rd, while facing a pair of talented pitchers. The Mariners possess a strong defense and bullpen, where the Rays are not below average in either aspect. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 12:20 EST: Welp, missed the update on this game because I was so busy re-arranging pitchers, half of whom may end up rained out anyway. I've never seen such a mess of a board. No daily fantasy notes today. Will, but will try to make some sense of the confusion below.
Pirates @ Reds
So this is a frustrating game. To start with, we HAD six teams who have yet to confirm a starter as of the time of this writing (7 EST). That’s 20% of a full board. To add to the frustration, Andrew Abbott’s name was just pulled from MLB.com and swapped to TBD. That’s seven pitchers unconfirmed on Tuesday night. We’ll come back to it if there’s something worth coming back to, though there probably won’t be. It's likely a bullpen effort for the Pirates.
Opp wRC+: 86 (83 Home)/95 v LHP (55 L7 days)
DEF: -19.5/-5.5
B30: 4.13/3.32
Update 12:35 EST: 81 degrees, 8 mph in from right. There may be rain. Ortiz starts for Pittsburgh. Ashcraft returns from the IL for the Reds, who sit Candelario, among a few others.
Phillies @ Tigers
Spencer Turnbull makes his first start since April, when they booted him for…get this…Taijuan Walker. Now, Walker is injured again and Turnbull is back. Only 19 of his 51.1 innings have come from the pen, but nine of his 16 runs. He’s thrown three innings on several occasions, remaining somewhat stretched out. With a 17.9 K-BB%, estimators ranging from a 3.43 SIERA to a 3.88 xERA are well above his 2.63 ERA (.242 BABIP, 82.7 LOB%) with quality pitch modeling metrics (113 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 3.71 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.3 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 2.86
No line on this game yet either, but it sounds like it could be Keider Montero, possibly behind an opener. He struck out five of 19 Pirates in his only major league start about a month back. He only walked one with two barrels. Nearly 24 years old, Montero carries a 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) with an above average fastball, but average at best secondaries and poor command. Montero has a 10.7 K-BB% at AAA. He was Detroit’s 22nd ranked prospect (again, Fangraphs) back in January, projected eventually as a reliever, due to his lack of an above average arsenal, aside from the fastball. Projections call for something slightly above four and a quarter, which, ironically is how his actual performance worked out first time out.
Opp wRC+: 110 (110 Road, 157 L7 days)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.76
Update 12:40 EST: Around 80 degrees with a slight breeze out to left and rain. Montero will get an opener (Holton) .
Rockies @ Astros
Ryan Feltner has allowed 29 runs (23 earned) over his last 25.2 innings with a 16.2 K-BB% (14.3% season) and just 5.9% Barrels/BBE. His 43.5% hard contact rate over this span is five points above his season rate. Obvious culprits are Coors (four home games), a .354 BABIP, 36.8 LOB% and six home runs (just five barrels). Feltner’s 6.02 ERA is now nearly two runs above his worst estimator (4.20 FIP).
Opp wRC+: 114 (19 K%, 129 Home, 135 L7 days)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.40
SpAghetti’s first four walk game now has him posting a 12.8 BB% and 9.0 K-BB%. Estimators are all above four and a half, but also all well below his 6.36 ERA with none reaching five. In his case, a .360 BABIP is the major culprit. An 85 Stuff+ grade works up to a 97 Pitching+ with a 3.80 Bot ERA a bit more optimistic.
Opp wRC+: 82 (25.5 K%, 84 Road)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.86
Update 12:55 EST: No rain in the dome. Cesar Salad is back! Four LHBs for HOU (> .350 wOBA, xwOBA against Feltner since last year).
Marlins @ Royals
This is another game without a confirmed pitcher and I’m having trouble even finding hints of who it may be. I’ve read maybe Trevor Rogers or even a major league debut. Considering it’s the perfectly average Brady Singer on the other side, I’m not putting in too much effort here.
Opp wRC+: 98 (17.8 K%, 111 Home, 54 L7 days)/83 (5.7 BB%, 68 Road)
DEF: -11/10
B30: 3.70/4.50
Update 1:10 EST: Mid-80s with a 10 mph wind in from left. Valente Bellozo will sing the opening...I mean pitch for the Royals. He was an Other of Note on the Miami prospect list for Fangraphs this month. The changeup is the start of his arsenal, but his FG page doesn't even have future value grades. Only a few systems are projecting the 24 year-old with a 10.9 K-BB% over 20.2 AAA innings this year and those projections are all over the place between four and five.
Rangers @ Brewers
Nathan Eovaldi has sandwiched a poor effort in Seattle between a pair of strong ones against the Royals and Giants. The Rangers also let him go beyond 90 pitches for the first time in five starts last time out. He’s had some issues with control (9.3 BB%) and hard contact (43.3%), but not so much barrels (6.4%) with a 26 K% (13.7 SwStr%). Estimators ranging from a 3.26 dERA to a 3.68 SIERA and FIP are slightly above his 3.14 ERA. Considering the Rangers let him throw 98 pitches last time out, it seems he’s finally healthy and the Rangers are ready to make their push.
Opp wRC+: 114 (118 Home)
DEF: 14
B30: 3.47
This is another unconfirmed starter. Or rather another confirmed one, Colin Rea, who has been de-listed and replaced with TBD (I hate that guy) on MLB.com. Maybe it’s just an opener situation, but with five runs, two home runs and no strikeouts last time out, perhaps they should open, bulk and close for him. Rea is still rocking the .254 BABIP and 79.4 LOB% keeping his 3.62 ERA more than a run below all estimators, supported by 85 Stuff+ and 96 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 92 (19.7 K%, 89 Road)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.81
Update 1:25 EST: Open roof, 79 degrees per the hotline. This is going to be...who the hell let Dallas Kuechel into the building? Rangers 90 wRC+ v LHP only a bit worse than against RHP. No Seager. Keuchel has projections not much below five and an 8.0 K-BB% in 71 AAA innings for Seattle this yer.
Athletics @ Angels
No line on this game yet either, but it does look like we finally got our second confirmed pitcher, different from the one who was rumored (Davis Daniel). First, though, Joey Estes has struck out just six of his last 66 batters with seven barrels (12.7%). With a 12.1 K-BB% and 10.8% Barrels/BBE, a 4.70 xERA is his best estimator.
Opp wRC+: 90 (48 L7 days)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 4.65
Roansy Contreras is now listed as Wednesday’s starter. All 21 of his outings have come out of the pen this season, though he threw 47 pitches on the 18th. Contreras has a 12.5 K-BB% and 8.2% Barrels/BBE.
Opp wRC+: 93 (26.9 K%)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.78
Update 2 EST: 80 degrees with a near double digit wind out to left-center. Both regular catchers are out. Cameron bats leadoff for the A's. Bleday out too.
Nationals @ Padres
DJ Herz has made four starts and it’s around this time when I start looking at what a pitcher has actually done as much as projections, but one his four is such an outlier, that I can’t convince myself his actual numbers are real. Thirteen of his 26 strikeouts came against the Marlins. He’s allowed all 10 of his runs in 12 innings outside that start too. And all six of his barrels. And 19 of his 20 hard hit batted balls. While he has estimators averaging below three and a half, projections are still above four and a half and this is backed up by pitch modeling. Herz has a 92 Stuff+ (98 Pitching+) with a 4.35 Bot ERA and only one pitch (fastball) reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade and not by very much (53).
Opp wRC+: 92 (18.1 K%, 119 Home)
DEF: -18
B30: 3.58
Ten strikeouts, but four more runs against Dylan Cease last time out gives him a 6.43 ERA over his last eight starts with a .381 BABIP, 66.8 LOB% and nine of 14 barrels (11.5%) leaving the park. Too many barrels, but just a 38.5% hard contact rate over this span to go along with a 23 K-BB% that matches his season rate (23.4%). All estimators are more than half a run below his 4.14 ERA with the contact inclusive 3.59 xERA being the worst of them by one-third of a run. There’s something to the contact profile at this point, but pitch modeling still sees an electric arm (123 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 3.38 Bot ERA). Both the slider (42.3%, 0.7 RV/100, 58 PB grade) and fastball (43.5%, -0.1 RV/100, 57 PB grade) still grade strongly with the Nationals below average against either pitch (bottom 10 vs fastballs).
Opp wRC+: 95 (20.6 K%, 91 Road)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.76
Update 2:30 EST: 75 degrees, near double digit wind blowing out somewhere near the right field pole. Edwin Moscoso generally calls a hitter friendly game. Ramirez and Millas in for Rosario and Ruiz. Arraez sits against the lefty. Rosario in, Profar leadoff, Solano bats second.
Guardians @ Orioles
With his velocity up to a season high 93.2 mph, Carlos Carrasco struck out seven of 21 Blue Jays through six four-hit innings. With a 10.6 K-BB% and 7.4% Barrrels/BBE, it hasn’t been as bad as you think. Estimators ranging from a 4.31 xFIP to a 4.92 xERA are well below his 5.40 ERA, though a 90.2 Z-Contact% and 43.4 Z-O-Swing% are signs it may not last, along with the 5.03 Bot ERA without a single offering reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 118 (116 Home, 131 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.27
I want to repeat just some of what I wrote before his last start because it still seems pertinent here:
“It always feels like Grayson Rodriguez is one burst away from becoming the Ace of this staff and a serious Cy Young contender. He’s exceeded seven strikeouts just once since his first start and completed seven innings for the first time all year last time out. Just six of Rodriguez’s 12 starts have been quality starts, despite allowing more than two runs only twice. Underlying numbers include an 18.4 K-BB% are on the verge of elite with a hard contact rate (39.8%) just under 40%. A 3.60 SIERA, 3.65 SIERA and 3.68 xFIP are nearly half a run above his 3.20 ERA (79.5 LOB%), but pitch modeling already lauds his talent (120 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 2.69 Bot ERA). Gray-Rod’s worst PB grade is a 58.”
Rodriguez struck out eight of 26 Astros, but only lasted five innings and allowed seven runs. Sigh. That changeup is now a 59 and his worst PB grade. Unfortunately for him, the Guardians only struggle with sinkers, cutters and splitters and he throws none of them.
Opp wRC+: 106 (18.4 K%, 140 L7 days)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.51
Update 3:40 EST: Upper 80s, near double digit wind out to left-center. Rain potential. Naylor out. What's a Junky Noel?
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Yariel Rodriguez returned to walk three of the nine Guardians he faced with one strikeout. He also walked three with one strikeout in his last start before hitting the IL. He hasn’t gone beyond 20 pitches or four innings in any of his starts, while RHBs exceed a .430 wOBA and xwOBA against him. With a 13.6 BB% and 42.3% hard contact rate, why not just make him a reliever?
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 15.5
B30: 4.51
Kutter Crawford has gone at least six innings in each of his last five starts, but with 23 runs over 30.1 innings. Only 17 have been earned with a 21.0 K-BB% (17.4% season). He has allowed 10 barrels (12.7%), but nine of them have been home runs to go along with a 51.4 LOB%. He actually has a .200 BABIP over this amazing span. What does all this craziness work out too? Well, a 3.59 ERA that’s below, but within half a run of all of his estimators, but pitch modeling is where it’s really at for Crawford. Along with 106 Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks, his two top pitches are the cutter (30,6%, 0.6 RV/100, 58 PB grade), naturally, and fastball (33.7%, 0.5 RV/100, 58 PB grade). Which two pitches do the Blue Jays struggle with the most? The cutter (-1.48 wFC/C is second worst) and fastball (-0.5 wFA/C is seventh worst).
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.6 K%)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.54
Update 4:30 EST: Low 80s, double digit wind out to center. Rain potential. Eight LHBs for Boston. Rodriguez's reverse split is mentioned above. Only 2 LHBs for Toronto. No split for Crawford.
Yankees @ Mets
The Baltimore Orioles punched Luis Gill in the face last time out. Their seven runs were just the second time he’s allowed more than a single run over his last 10 starts, though Gil has now gone three outings without a quality start. A bit of expected regression. The man still has a 12.4 BB% to go with his 29.3 K% and 34.2% hard contact rate. He’s generated as many popups (14) as barrels. A 2.77 ERA is not much below a 3.03 xERA, though contact neutral estimators exceed actual results by more than a run (.222 BABIP). Gil’s 112 Stuff+ grade works down to a 101 Pitching+, alongside a 4.15 Bot ERA, which both question his success with that walk rate.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 13.5
B30: 4.20
It’s been six starts since Sean Manaea has completed six innings (only three times this year). If it’s not walks (9.6%) it’s the one bad inning he can’t seem to escape. Though his velocity has been back up to 93.6 mph over this six start span (92.3 season), Manaea also has a 21.2 K-BB% over his last seven starts that far exceeds his 14.5% season rate. What’s been the issue then? A 64.6% strand rate, bringing his season rate down to 19.2%. All this to say that all non-FIP estimators reside within one-fifth or a run of his 4.16 ERA. The sinker (39.5%, 2 RV/100, 56 PB grade) is the only pitch Manaea has thrown more than 16.7% of the time and the only one exceeding a 43 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 103 (9.6 K-BB%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.45
Update 4:05 EST: Low 80s, double digit wind out to left. Rain potential. Torres out. Uncle Ben makes three LHBs for the Yankees against Manaea.
Braves @ Cardinals
So this game is now part of a double-header. Wasn’t when I started. Still looks like we’ll keep original Wednesday pitchers for Game Two as of now, but lines have been removed from the books. Chris Sale continues to beast, striking out eight of 18 Yankees, though only lasting five innings with one run. He has eight outings of at least seven innings and fewer than six strikeouts just once on the season. His 2.91 ERA is ABOVE all estimators. Sale has a 56 grade fastball (37.6%) and 57 grade slider (40.6%) via PitchingBot, while the Cardinals are the fourth worst offense against fastballs in the league (-0.65 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 75 (20.1 K%, 106 Home, 133 L7 days)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.27
Over five game starts, Andre Pallante has a 56.1 GB% with a 31.8% hard contact rate (1 barrel) with just a 10.3 K-BB%. Pallante has a 4.76/3.99 FIP/3.86 xFIP as a starter this year (.344 BABIP), but RHBs have a .411 wOBA, .342 xwOBA against him in his career (LHBs below .300) and pitch modeling wants no part of his arsenal. With 90 Stuff+ and 92 Pitching+ marks, Pallante also has a 5.44 Bot ERA without a single pitch reaching a 45 PB grade.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24 K%, 93 Road)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 4.07
Update 6:10 EST: This has turned into Elder (estimators average around five after three starts) and Liberatore (four starts, each between 14-16 batters faced). I have a lean towards STL F5 (+105), but don't feel comfortable enough to act on it in the second game of a double-header.
Dodgers @ White Sox
After allowing eight runs over his first eight innings, Gavin Stone has allowed 19 over 72 since, but it’s not that easy. His 3.04 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 3.53 FIP to a 4.31 SIERA. He has managed contact well (5.4% Barrels/BBE, 32.5% hard hit rate), but with just an 11.5 K-BB%. Pitch modeling sees him as something in between, close to average, as well with a 96 Stuff+ grade (100 Pitching+) and 4.22 Bot ERA with all PitchingBot pitch grades between 46 and 53.
Opp wRC+: 75 (74 Home, 48 L7 days)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.60
Erick Fedde has the same 3.05 ERA as Stone, but slightly better estimators ranging from a 3.39 xERA to a 3.77 SIERA. He has managed contact nearly as well (7.2% Barrels/BBE, 35.4% hard hit rate), but with a better 15.9 K-BB%. The question here is if his 8.6 SwStr% can continue to support a 22.1 K% or will his estimators drift closer to Stone’s? It was even more questionable before he spiked an 18.3 SwStr% against the Cubs a few starts back, only his third game above an 11 SwStr%. Fedde’s PitchingBot grades range from 44 to 55 with a 3.82 Bot ERA and 94 Stuff+ mark (101 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 118 (122 Road, 126 L7 days)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.97
Update 4:50 EST: Low 70s, double digit wind across the field. Will Smith, Eloy JImenez out. Played o5.5 Ks (+145) for Stone. Beat this 4 of L5, avg 24 BF per game. Six in CWS LU 22+ K% v RHP since last season.
Twins @ Diamondbacks
Simeon Woods-Richardson has struck out 22 of his last 88 batters (12.8 SwStr%) to raise his strikeout rate to 20.7% (13.9 K-BB%) and he seems to have done this by increasing his slider usage to 33.7%. The pitch has just a 43 PB grade, but 1.7 RV/100 and 24.7 Whiff% that’s better than either of the other two pitches he throws more than 10% of the time. He may want to increase his changeup usage (20.7%, -2 RV/100, 66 PB grade) against the Diamondbacks, the worst team in baseball against changeups (-1.42 wCH/C). Just six of SWR’s 19 barrels (10.6%) have left the park this year, Thus, a 3.26 ERA is more than three-quarters of a run below non-FIP estimators ranging from a 4.07 xERA to a 4.27 xFIP. Those should reduce a bit if he can continue to strike out batters at even a league average rate going forward.
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.9 K%, 110 Home)
DEF: 11
B30: 3.79
Ryne Nelson has struck out just 15 of his last 121 batters and eight of those came in one start against the White Sox. With just a 15.1 K% and 9.5% Barrels/BBE (43.2% hard contact rate), all of Nelson’s estimators exceed four and a half, though all are still below his 5.18 ERA. It remains so difficult to see why pitch modeling favors him with a 102 Pitching+ mark and 3.82 Bot ERA, which includes a 57 grade fastball (49.8%, -0.2 RV/100.
Opp wRC+: 107 (142 L7 days)
DEF: 19
B30: 5.02
Update 6:20 EST: Roof closed. Nothing chaotic going on here.
Cubs @ Giants
I started my write ups with neither pitcher from this game confirmed via MLB.com. One has been confirmed (Hayden Birdsong), but was not the pitcher originally listed by Roster Resource (Mason Black). It will be his major league debut with just nine innings above AA. Roster Resource was also listing Imanaga for this start, but just switched to Hayden Wesnescki because the other pitcher was named Hayden too? MLB.com is still TBD. Perhaps back to this tomorrow.
Update 6:50 EST: Below 60 degrees. Pair of Hayden's on the mound. Wesneski started three games earlier in the season. Birdsong projects a bit below four and a half. A 40 Future Value arm (Fangraphs), just nine innings above AA. Has run strikeout rates above 30% everywhere, but also double digit walk rates. His projected future is in the bullpen. The Giants have scrambled the bottom of their order. Villar & Matos are back.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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