One more game to go, 11 in the bank, and there's not even a line on it yet with Justin Steele just getting confirmation as I type this at 11:30 EST. That leaves three unconfirmed pitchers for Monday (via MLB.com), including Steele's opponent, which looks like another bullpen game for the Giants, who may or may not feature Spencer Howard.
I know I say this frequently, but then rarely end up missing posts, but I really do have a busy week coming up and will certainly miss one day this week (maybe two), but am not sure which days those will be. Likely one of Tuesday/Wednesday and/or one of Thursday/Friday.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Guardians @ Orioles
Tanner Bibee had a respectable 24.6 K% over his first nine starts with an 11.2 SwStr%. He jacked that up to a 28.3 K% (24.2 K-BB%) with a 15.2 SwStr% over his next four. His last two against the Mariners and Reds? A 53.5 K% (48.8 K-BB%) and 17.4 SwStr%. Sure, two of the three highest strikeout rates against RHP, but you can only dominate the teams on the schedule that you’re supposed to. Bibee has also allowed four home runs over his last six starts, but with two barrels and a 31.3% hard contact rate. All estimators are below his 3.65 ERA with a 107 Pitching+ grade. All PitchingBot grades are above 50 for the season and 54 or better over this six start stretch.
Opp wRC+: 119 (119 Home, 161 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.09
More walks (four) than strikeouts (two) in his debut against the Blue Jays, followed up by striking out six Braves without a walk, but then Cade Povich walked five Yankees with a single strikeout, Swinging strike rates were 8%, 15.7% and 4.3%. His 50 Future Value grade and 94th prospect ranking, both via Fangraphs, illustrates the potential, backed by a 23.4 K-BB% at AAA this season. Pitch modeling is not seeing it in the majors so far (85 Stuff+, 94 Pitching+). Povich has a 44 grade fastball (PB) against the eighth best fastball hitting team in the league (0.22 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 113 (140 L7 days)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.61
Phillies @ Tigers
Aaron Nola bounced back from a beating in Fenway (eight runs) with the worst version of a quality start (three in six) against the Padres. Nola’s 15.8 K-BB% is his worst mark since his rookie season and just 13.4% over his last six starts. With a league average ground ball rate and contact profile, all estimators are above, but within half a run of his 3.54 ERA. The .246 BABIP is a career low by more than 30 points. His 105 Pitching+ grade is a career low, but the sinker is still an elite pitch (20.6%, 1 RV/100, 64 PB grade) with which he can punish Detroit (-1.29 wSI/C is worst in baseball). The sinker and curveball (32.2%, 1.1 RV/100 68 PB grade) are Nola’s only PB grades that have improved.
Opp wRC+: 91 (24.3 K%, 36 L7 days)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 2.96
The strikeouts may never come (15.2%, 7.9 SwStr%), but Mize keeps enough of his bad contact (42.4 Hard%) on the ground (48.9 BB%) without giving out too many free passes (6.3%) that his ERA (4.44) and estimators are all below four and a half. Mize has only even completed five innings twice in his last six starts, but his 108 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ marks on the season are only down to 106 and 102 over this span.
Opp wRC+: 109 (165 L7 days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.76
Mariners @ Rays
Bryan Woo has had velocity and strikeout fluctuations over his last few starts, lasting just 17 batters in Cleveland last time out, striking out two or fewer batters for his third time in four starts. It was the first time he failed to go six innings in five starts and the three runs ties a season high allowed, but Woo has also only exceeded 80 pitches just once. Is he injured? Are the Mariners just being cautious? Do they not want opposing offenses to see too much of his fastball heavy arsenal? That shouldn’t be an issue against the Rays, who are a bottom third of the league offense against both sinkers (26%, 3.4 RV/100, 73 PB grade) and four-seamers (52.9%, 1.7 RV/100, 57 PB grade). Woo still has an excellent 106 Pitching+ score and 2.86 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 96 (144 L7 days).
DEF: 2
B30: 3.46
Fourteen of Taj Bradley’s runs surrendered were allowed in just two of his eight starts. That includes six of his nine home runs and seven of his 16 barrels. He’s allowed just a pair of barrels over his last three starts, including his second and third quality starts of the season. His 7.7 SwStr% and three strikeouts last time out against the Twins were both season lows. If he can continue to suppress hard contact like he has over his last three starts (34.8% vs 44% on the year), the 21.4 K-BB% will go a lot further. Like Woo, Bradley has a good fastball (42.2%, -0.8 RV/100, 55 PB grade), while his 112 Stuff+ works down to a 102 Pitching+, but the Mariners are exactly as bad as the Rays against fastballs (-0.21 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 98 (27.9 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.10
Pirates @ Reds
Bailey Falter authored his third quality start of at least seven innings in his last six starts last time out against these same Reds, who have been much better against LHP than RHP, but he also struck out just three of 26 batters with a 47.6% hard contact rate. I would expect much different results with the same performance in Cincinnati on Monday. Falter is riding a .242 BABIP to keep his 3.74 ERA more than three-quarters of a run below all estimators with a 9.9 K-BB%, 9.5% Barrels/BBE and 42% hard contact rate. Falter’s 90.6 Z-Contact% is tied for second worst on the board (if Paxton pitches). Pitch modeling? Nope. An 88 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+ and 4.32 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 95 (10.4 K-BB%, 81 Home & L7 days)
DEF: -19.5
B30: 4.11
Carson Spiers struggled early in his first start of the season in Pittsburgh, but ended up lasting Six innings with four runs allowed and five strikeouts, going almost three full times through the order. In 25.1 innings overall, he’s not striking out a lot of batters either (18.9%), but does have a 9.9 SwStr%, 4.7 BB% and 34.2% hard hit rate with just 5.1% Barrels/BBE. All of his outings have been at least three innings, so we can put some stock in his pitch modeling numbers, which include a 106 Pitching+ mark, 3.50 Bot ERA and 65 grade sweeper (25.1%, -1.8 RV/100), a pitch the Pirates have had little success against (-0.38 wSL/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 81 (87 Road, 74 L7 days)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.47
I’m not so sure what Spiers is (so far, so good), but I’m absolutely certain that Falter isn’t what his surface stats suggest him to be. Add in the better offense, defense and much better bullpen and this line (CIN -108) at home makes little sense. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: A nine game daily fantasy week opener includes just a single protected environment where there’s probably an equal chance of it being opened or closed (there’s a hotline to find out) and extreme weather is contained to one single state, where two games will be played tonight. Seven of 18 teams exceed four and a half implied runs with the Royals running away from the field by more than a run. Equally, seven teams are below four runs.
We start with temps in the mid-80s and a breeze out to center in the most power friendly environment in the league. The Reds and Pirates are tied for the third highest team totals at 4.75 runs. I’m buying into the home team much more than the road team here. In fact, I’m currently rostering Spiers as my DK single entry SP2 for $6.2K. Hate the environment, but he’s been better than this price tag and facing a well below average offense. That said, he has shown a large split thus far (LHBs .373 wOBA, .332 xwOBA), so Reynolds (123 wRC+, .220 ISO v RHP since last season) and Cruz (125, .205 ISO) still stand out, while McCutchen (114, .148) works out in stacks too. Alternatively, RHBs have a .315 wOBA and .346 xwOBA against Falter since last year with LHBs exceeding .350. Stuart Fairchild (107, .131) should be a nice leadoff value in a team I’m looking to stack tonight. India, Espinal and De La Cruz are the only three projected, who are below a 100 wRC+ against LHP since last season. Spencer Steer (141, .235) is the only one exceeding .200 ISO against southpaws. The Reds can run on a Falter/Grandal combination and the Pirates have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days. Bednar is IL’d and Holderman has thrown 40 pitches over the last two days.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Chris Bassitt (unconfirmed) has allowed just six runs over his last 36 innings with a 30.8% hard contact rate, just four barrels and a 16.1 K-BB%. He also has just a 9.3 SwStr%, no home runs allowed and an 87.8 LOB% over this span. LHBs continue to hit him at a .360 wOBA and .348 xwOBA clip since last season, while non-FIP estimators range from a 4.03 xFIP to a 4.16 SIERA, half a run above his 3.52 ERA. Pitch modeling confirms Bassitt’s decline with a 95 Stuff+ mark, 98 Pitching+ and 3.95 Bot ERA. Decline may still mean average pitcher in his case, which is where everything’s pointing, but he may want to cut down on the cutter (19.3%, 1.1 RV/100, 40 PB grade), especially against the Red Sox (-0.23 wFC/C is top quarter of the league).
Opp wRC+: 104 (128 L7 days)
DEF: 15
B30: 4.37
Tanner Houck failed to complete six innings for just the third time of this year last time out, all three times by just a single out. In addition to going nearly three times through the order on average now, Houck has walk (4.4%) and barrel (4.8%) rates to below five percent, to go along with a 24.2 K%, improved by his new splitter, which has drastically improved his results against LHBs. He doesn’t so much have to worry about that here though, where the slider (41.8%, 2.2 RV/100, 64 PB grade) should continue to the chosen weapon of attack against a predominantly right-handed Toronto lineup (-0.37 wSL/C is bottom third of the league). While all estimators exceed Houck’s 2.14 ERA, no complaints when a 3.30 xERA is the worst mark on your ledger.
Opp wRC+: 98 (19.4 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.61
Every edge in this game seems fairly large, aside from offense, which favors the Red Sox surprisingly. Not to me, but in regards to pre-season projections. The only one of those edges favoring the Jays is defense. No need to wait for pitch confirmation to pull the trigger on BOS -142 because I doubt the Blue Jays will come up with anything better than Bassitt.
DFS Notes: Cincy is the top power environment, but Fenway is the top run environment on the slate. It’s in the low 70s with a double digit wind blowing either left to right or out to right and that’s a big difference. The Red Sox have a 4.56 team total with the Blue Jays at 3.94. The contact prone Jays kill Houck’s value for me at a high price, despite their predominance of RHBs. Bassitt is not a pitcher I’m interested in against a predominantly left-handed lineup in this environment. You’re probably not surprised that my greatest interest here lies in left-handed Boston bats like Duran (133 wRC+, .220 ISO v RHP since last season), Abreu (147, .224) and Devers (136, .256). This entire projected lineup exceeds a 110 wRC+ over the last 30 days and Toronto has bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days with Romano and Garcia on the IL. Just about everyone in the Boston pen pitched on Sunday with Jansen (27) and Martin (33) on back to back days.
Braves @ Cardinals
Spencer Schwellenbach has held his own through four starts with nearly no experience above A-ball. Posting a 12.9 K-BB% (just about league average) with a 42.2% hard contact rate, but just a single barrel, the rookie has estimators ranging from a 3.65 xERA to a 4.49 dERA, all well below his actual 4.98 ERA (64.9 LOB%). Pitch modeling, which may stabilize faster, is encouraging (105 Pitching+, 3.54 Bot ERA), including a fastball that PitchingBot sees as special (25.6%, -4.3 RV/100, 61 PB grade), despite it’s poor results so far. St Louis might be the team to turn that around against (-0.68 wFA/C is third worst MLB).
Opp wRC+: 107 (105 Home)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.51
Lance Lynn completed five innings for the first time in four starts last time out, but it took him 27 batters and two home runs to do it. He’s allowed fewer home runs this year (nine), but his rate of home runs to barrels was always going to improve and the latter hasn’t lessened much (8.3%). What improved is his home park and what has lessened is his strikeout rate (21.7%). Lynn’s 45.7 Z-O-Swing% is third worst on the day, while his 4.08 ERA exactly matches his FIP with all other estimators above that, though only ranging as high as a 4.31 xERA. It’s better than anyone expected and better than pitch modeling thinks he deserves with an 84 Stuff+ mark (94 Pitching+) and 4.31 Bot ERA. Don’t throw the sinker (18.7%, -1.2 RV/100, 41 PB grade) against the Braves (0.24 wSI/C is fifth best in the league).
Opp wRC+: 97 (95 Road)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.98
DFS Notes: Temps around 90 with a near double digit wind blowing out towards the left field pole certainly enhances the hitting environment here, otherwise Schwellenbach would likely be my SP2 and would still be my second choice behind Spiers. Five projected Cardinals exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last year, four below 18%. The Cardinals (4.12) are middle of the board, as are the Braves (4.38), just a bit higher. I certainly think Atlanta bats are under-valued here, especially with LHBs owning a .375 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against Lynn since last season. Kelenic (111 wRC+, .168 ISO v RHP since last season) is one of my top OF values on the slate. With RHBs at .305, .324 against Lynn too, I certainly like Ozuna (147, .285) and Riley (120, .206) along with the LHBs. Each of the first five in the regular order exceed a 110 wRC+ over the last 30 days and Duvall is the only Brave projected below a 100 wRC+ away from home since last year. The Cardinals are another struggling pen with bottom third of the league estimators over the last 30 days. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .298 and .334 wOBA and xwOBA against Schwellenbach so far. Very limited interest in St Louis bats. Only Gorman (112, .245) exceeds a .175 ISO v RHP since last season.
Dodgers @ White Sox
James Paxton (not confirmed) at Coors? This is going to be his reckoning. All he did was throw seven innings of two hit ball with a season high eight strikeouts. The first time he’s struck out more than four since his first start. No, we don’t fear the Rockies these days, even at Coors, but their 93 wRC+ against LHP is far from the worst mark in the league. Maybe Paxton, with his K-BB up to 3.6% after that start (11.4% last seven starts, but also 0% in three of those), can be successful against another poor offense too, but he still doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half (4.64 xERA is closest to 3.65 ERA), while his 74 Stuff+ grade only works up to a 90 Pitching+ beside a 5.06 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 84 (76 Home, 70 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.75
Garrett Crochet has struck out 50 of his last 123 batters (40.7%) and is now up to a 29.5 K-BB% with a 2.59 FIP (10 home runs, 15 barrels), his only estimator not more than three-quarters of a run below his 3.25 ERA. Pitch modeling concurs with a 104 Stuff+ mark (103 Pitching+) and 2.47 Bot ERA. The cutter (26.1%, 2.7 RV/100, 69 PB grade) should be the pitch he features against the Dodgers, the only pitch they’re below average against (-0.47 wFC/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 133 (18.2 K%, 123 Road, 141 L7 days)
DEF: -13
B30: 4.08
Should Paxton be confirmed, I’ll likely take action on the Chicago side should they remain dogs, but in this case I want the confirmation first because whoever else the Dodgers might throw could very well potentially be better than Paxton and with a bullpen disadvantage, I’d like to see an F5 line too.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind in from left-center in a run neutral environment, the Dodgers are middle of the board (4.19) with the White Sox closer to the bottom (3.81). LHBs (.295 wOBA, .277 xwOBA) are a bit better than RHBs, who are below .270, against Crochet since last year. I’ll never say Ohtani (142 wRC+, .251 ISO v LHP since last year) is off the board if you can afford him, but he’s not one of tonight’s better values and I’m off Dodger bats, despite everyone projected aside from Kike and Rojas exceeding a 100 wRC+ and .180 ISO v LHP since last season. If they can knock Crochet out early or drive up his pitch count, the White Sox have bottom third of the league estimators L30 days. RHBs have a .317 wOBA and .320 xwOBA against Paxton since last season. Pham, Robert and Sosa exceed a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO against southpaws since last year.
Marlins @ Royals
Roddery Munoz has allowed 11 home runs and 15 barrels (15.9%), facing only 127 batters. Exactly half of his contact has reached a 95 mph exit velocity. He’s struck out 23.6% of the batters he’s faced, but also walked 11%. Contact neutral estimators more than a run below his 5.76 ERA. Contact inclusive ones more than a run above. Pitch modeling leans towards the latter with a 5.54 Bot ERA (95 Pitching+) and only one PB grade above 37.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.5 K%, 111 Home, 43 L7 days)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.66
Since taking his second seven run pounding of the season (and in a span of five starts) from the Angels, Cole Ragans has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) over 43 innings with a 22.6 K-BB%, raising his season mark to 21%. Just six of 17 barrels leaving the park could be seen as a feature of his home park, where he’ll be pitching tonight, but even the more pessimistic view has all other estimators within one-fifth of a run of his 3.13 ERA. Pitch modeling is what really encourages my decisions below. Ragans (111 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+) doesn’t have a PitchingBot grade below 51, but only throws two pitches more than 13% of the time. Those would be his changeup (25.4%, 0.6 RV/100, 57 PB grade) and fastball (41.4%, 1.8 RV/100, 63 PB grade). The Marlins are pretty bad against just above every pitch, but are at their worst against changeups (-1.19 wCH/C is third worst) and fastballs (-0.86 wFA/C is second worst).
Opp wRC+: 68 (5.5 BB%, 6.9 HR/FB, 69 Road)
DEF: 16
B30: 4.54
DFS Notes: At 96 degrees and a double digit wind out to left against a pitcher who has virtually done nothing but walk batters and give up bombs, is it any wonder the Royals lap the board (5.84)? Considering the above, it’s no surprise that Ragans is my top pitcher tonight. He’s probably everybody’s top pitcher, a bit ahead of Crochet and Peralta for me. I have Ragans in single entry lineups on both sites. He’s actually cheaper than Houck on DK. That said, conditions alone could have me tossing in a top half Marlins stack or two in multi-entry, just to hedge. They still have just a 3.66 team total that’s near the bottom of the board and only one batter (Chisholm) exceeding a 90 wRC+ on the road since last season. The Kansas City pen has the third worst estimators in the league L30 days if they can get Ragans out. On the other end, I’m stacking as many Royals as I can in single entry on either site without concern for ownership. LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Munoz so far. Pasquantino (104 wRC+, .197 ISO v RHP since last season), Melendez (97, .194) and Frazier (91, .143), if in the leadoff spot, are top of the board bats tonight, as is Witt (124, .219) with RHBs at a .271 wOBA, but .395 xwOBA against Munoz. There really are no poor choices under these conditions. Tanner Scott threw 22 pitches on Sunday and has worked four of the last six (67).
Rangers @ Brewers
Michael Lorenzen has allowed just six runs over his last 17.1 innings, despite as many barrels (six) as strikeouts. He has a 2.9 K-BB% over this span, dropping his season rate to 7%, lower than his rate of Barrels/BBE (7.4%). Not only are all estimators more than a run and a half above his 3.00 ERA (.222 BABIP, 85.9 LOB%), but RHBs now have a .348 wOBA and .358 xwOBA against him since last season. Pitch modeling doesn’t help him in the slightest (96 Stuff+ & Pitching+, 4.85 Bot ERA), including a 45 grade fastball (24.5%, 1.5 RV/100) and 43 grade sinker (22.3%, -1 RV/100), a pair of pitches the Brewers are above average against.
Opp wRC+: 114 (117 Home)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.44
It looks like Freddy Peralta has rebounded with six three hit innings and eight strikeouts against the Angels, but we’ve seen this before with back to back single run outings against the Marlins and Cubs, followed by 13 runs (12 earned) over 13.2 innings prior to his last start. His 31 K% and 35.5% hard contact rates are still fantastic, but both his walk (8.5%) and barrel (10%) rates stretch a bit higher than desired. The execution has been questionable at times, but all estimators are still more than a quarter run below his 4.06 ERA. Pitch modeling suggests the command has dropped, but only just slightly and still above average (105 Pitching+ to 104). Despite results, PitchingBot still believes Peralta has a great fastball (53.5%, -0.3 RV/100, 57 PB grade), a pitch the Rangers have floundered against (-0.65 wFA/C is fourth worst in MLB).
Opp wRC+: 93 (19.7 K%, 89 Road)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.77
DFS Notes: On average, a near neutral run environment roof open or closed, Milwaukee does become more power friendly for RHBs if the roof is open. The Brewers are middle of the board (4.52) with the Rangers second from the bottom (3.48). If I can’t get to Ragans, Peralta would probably be my second choice and I only have very limited interest in Seager (169 wRC+, .300 ISO v RHP since last season) against him. Batters from either side are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Peralta since last season. While I don’t have any interest in Lorenzen, I’m not extremely high on Milwaukee bats either. As mentioned, RHBs are better than LHBs against Lorenzen. Hoskins, Ortiz and Adames exceed a 100 wRC+ and .170 ISO against RHP since last year, but there are such better environments out there today, unless the roof is open and it’s like 90 degrees. All projected except Hoskins, Contreras and Frelick exceed a 110 wRC+ against RHP since last season, but Lorenzen is tough to run on and the Texas pen has the fifth best estimators in the league last 30 days.
Athletics @ Angels
Luis Medina’s starts have been all over the place this season, much like his command. Walking five Blue Jays with just a single strikeout plays the largest part in his mere 3.2 K-BB% through four outings. An inability to get ahead of hitters has led to them just waiting for the fastball and Medina producing an 8.3 BB% with a 46.9 Z-O-Swing% that’s worst on today’s board. Contact neutral estimators exceed his 4.71 ERA by nearly a run, while contact inclusive ones are more than half a run lower. Pitch modeling only confirms what we already know. A lively arm (104 Stuff+) with poor command (94). PitchingBot gives his slider (27%, 1.3 RV/100) a 30 grade, which plays into his inability to consistently throw strikes and fail to get chases. The Angels perform better against sliders than any other pitch too (0.15 wSL/C is sixth best in the league).
Opp wRC+: 90 (56 L7 days)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 4.65
More consistent than Medina, Griffin Canning has been consistently below average with just four quality starts on the season and three or more runs in 60% of his outings. A 15.4 K% and nearly matching walk (8.3%) and barrel (8.4%) rates emit estimators all within one-third of a run of his 5.02 ERA. Pitch modeling confirms the below average tendencies with 86 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ scores, but the only outlier here is Canning’s changeup (26.2%, 2.7 RV/100, 55 PB grade), one of many pitches the A’s don’t care much for (-0.18 wCH/C is bottom third of the league). You’d think Canning would have more success than a .323 wOBA and .331 xwOBA against LHBs with this being the case though (the changeup being a platoon busting pitch and all).
Opp wRC+: 95 (26.6 K%, 84 Road, 123 L7 days)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.76
DFS Notes: Run neutral, but power friendly, temps in the 70s with a near double digit wind out to left-center. The A’s (4.24) are middle of the board with the Angels (4.76) second from the top. Medina’s volatility could work FOR him here at just $5.5K on DK. You can justify exposure to either side of this matchup. Batters from either side have a .324 to .342 wOBA and xwOBA against Medina in his career. It’s hard to pick out individual Angel bats. Logan O’Hoppe (116 wRC+, .222 ISO) is the only one projected above a 101 wRC+ against RHP since last season. His 140 wRC+ over the last 30 days is also the only above a 90 wRC+ aside from Neto (109). Medina and Langeliers are not easy to run on, though the bullpen has bottom five estimators L30 days and that’s including Miller, who hasn’t pitched in a few days. Can’t say Canning is an awful choice for $6.1K against a high strikeout lineup either, just not my first (or second choice). Batters from either side between a .320 and .331 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. Gelof, Langeliers, Rooker and Bleday all above a 100 wRC+ and .190 ISO v RHP since last season. The Angels have the second worst pen estimators L30 days.
Nationals @ Padres
Patrick Corbin has allowed just a pair of runs over his last 10.1 innings against the Diamondbacks and Tigers walking five of 43 batters, but also striking out 11. In his previous outing, he was pitching well against the Mets, who smash LHP, until it got away from him in the sixth and some stranded runners score. He allowed just a pair of runs in Cleveland the start before that. An 11 K-BB% over his last four starts is nothing to shout about, but nearly doubles his previous season rate. Problematically, Corbin has allowed 10 barrels (16.4%) with a 49.2% hard hit rate over this span. This has boosted his season xERA up to 6.67, Corbin’s only estimator above his 5.60 ERA. The failings are consistent with 78 Stuff+ and 93 Pithcing+ grades, while PitchingBot grades one above average pitch (58 grade cutter), though with a more optimistic 4.30 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 95 (17.9 K%, 122 Home, 131 L7 days)
DEF: -18
B30: 3.38
Matt Waldron has allowed just 10 runs over his last 49.1 innings with an 18.4 K-BB% (14.7% season), coinciding with the increased velocity on his knuckleball (77.7 mph vs 76.7 prior). Knuckleballs don’t always obey their commander though, which is why it’s so important that Waldron has a more traditional arsenal in his back pocket, including a 66 grade sweeper (19.4%, 1.6 RV/100. Knuckleballers are hard to evaluate because pitch modeling does not include them and they sometimes break estimators too. With a 32.1% hard contact rate, Waldron has a 3.46 ERA matching 3.46 FIP and 3.57 xERA, though contact neutral estimators half a run higher.
Opp wRC+: 95 (20.5 K%, 125 L7 days)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.71
I’m not buying on Corbin, but I am buying on this bullpen and San Diego being in their lesser split against LHP, which is the same as Washington’s wRC+ against RHP. Thus, I think +190 may be a bit too much.
DFS Notes: Temps around 70 with light wind across the field in one of the more negative run environments in the league. The Padres (4.72) are still fifth from the top of the board with the Nationals holding up the bottom (3.28). My problem with Waldron (only problem) is the lack of strikeouts for Washington (five below 20% against RHP since last year with only two reaching 25%). It’s the knuckleball though, so who knows? I’m certainly not interested in Washington bats here. RHBs have a .369 wOBA and .385 xwOBA against Corbin since last season with RHBs at .329 and .360 too. Cronenworth (80 wRC+, .113 ISO v LHP since last year) looks like the only poor value here. Arraez (94, .060) is the only projected Padre below a 115 wRC+ L30 days overall. Solano, Machado, Profar, Kim, Tatis all have a 120+ wRC+ against southpaws since last year, but only Kim (.194) exceeds a .180 ISO. All nine projected Padres exceed a 100 wRC+ at home since last year. You can run on Corbin all you want, especially with Ruiz behind the plate. Remember that the Nats have a top pen though. Back to back days for Finnegan (36) though.
Cubs @ Giants
Four quality starts over Justin Steele’s last five, three of more than six innings, all with fewer than three earned runs. In fact, only four of his 10 runs allowed over this span have been earned. A 17.3 K-BB% is a bit below last season and the 41.4 GB% is eight points down, but he continues to manage contact well (4.3% Barrels/BBE) with estimators ranging from a 3.02 xERA to a 3.68 SIERA fairly close to his 3.16 ERA. Both Steele’s slider (30.9%, -0.6 RV/100) and fastball (58.5%, -0.2 RV/100) exceed PitchingBot grades of 60, while the Giants have negative run values against both pitches, including a bottom quarter of the league mark against the former (-0.51 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 118 (20.5 K%) (incl Sun)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.45
Still no confirmation on three pitchers that were missing last night. This is probably a bullpen game, which may or may not feature Spencer Howard, who’s 4.86 ERA is within a half run of all estimators.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.60
DFS Notes: Below 60 seems to be the norm in San Francisco, along with San Diego, one of the more negative run environments in the league. The Cubs (3.85) and Giants (3.65) are both near the bottom of the board. I have no idea who the Giants are throwing behind the opener and there’s no way I’m touching Howard if they guaranteed me five innings. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against him since last year with LHBs below .250 this year. My gut tells me to just forget this matchup exists. Trying to figure out why my numbers don’t like Steele so much, you only have to look at the strikeout rates in the projected San Francisco lineup. Slater and Ramos exceed 26% against LHP, probably right at the top, but then it’s Soler (24.1%) and Estrada at 21.9% with everyone else below 21%. It’s an average of 20% exactly. Ramos and Soler exceed a 160 wRC+ and .300 ISO vs LHP since last year with Flores and Chapman above 120 and .190. This is a tough lineup in a pitcher friendly environment. I may forget this whole game exists for daily fantasy purposes.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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