Just a few games of interest for Saturday. No daily fantasy notes. I've left place keepers in case more games of interest pop up in the afternoon.
A marginal Friday. At 3-3 with the Dodgers o4.5 currently in play late Friday night. Sandoval just exited the game early with an arm injury (third inning). I don't know whether that helps or hurts. The Angels have the worst bullpen estimators in baseball last 30 days, but Strickland just came in with 1st & 2nd one out and cleaned up Teoscar and Freddie with no damage.
On the daily fantasy front, pitchers did their jobs. Sale was great against the Yankees and Crawford paid off his price tag, but Boston and Seattle bats (two of my top value stacks) scored two runs each.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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White Sox @ Tigers
Giants @ Cardinals
Mets @ Cubs
Rays @ Pirates
Royals @ Rangers
Wacha faced 13 batters in the low minors, striking out six of them in his only rehab outing. He had just a 12.7 K-BB% with tremendous contact management (5.9% Barrels/BBE, 33.2% hard contact rate) before hitting the IL end of May. Contact neutral estimators were within one-third of a run of his 4.24 ERA with his FIP and xERA a bit more than half a run below. Despite a 99 Pitching+ mark (91 Stuff+), Wacha has a pair of elite pitchers (though not necessarily by run value), generating a 2.97 Bot ERA. The fastball (23.4%, -3.2 RV/100, 61 PB grade) and changeup (32.3%, 2.1 RV/100, 79 PB grade) are both pitches the struggling Rangers have had issues with (-0.66 wFA/C is fourth worst, -0.15 wCH/C is ninth worst).
Opp wRC+: 93 (19.7 K%, 54 L7 days) (did not get a chance to update for Friday)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.53
Jon Gray was hit so hard by the Mets last time out (nine runs, three barrels, 20 batters) that there were allegations of pitch tipping. There’s also the fact that he throws a 45 grade fastball (42.7%, -1.1 RV/100) and 46 grade slider (45.1%, 1.7 RV/100) and not much else (82 Stuff+, 4.68 Bot ERA). He’s somehow turned that into a 16.5 K-BB%, but is now up to 9.2% Barrels/BBE with a 45.1% hard contact rate that projects a 4.61 xERA (his only estimator above four). Additional estimators are around one-quarter to one half run above Gray’s 3.31 ERA. LHBs are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, which should surprise without a pitch that can neutralize them.
Opp wRC+: 98 (64 L7 days)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.74
I believe Wacha to be slightly better than Gray at this point and we probably won’t get the full five innings (+130) out of him and may have to deal with an inning or so of bullpen work, which is Kansas City’s only real disadvantage in this game. Similar offensive and defensive numbers.
Diamondbacks @ Phillies
Twins @ Athletics
Red Sox @ Reds
Seven runs over Nick Pivetta’s last 11 innings, striking out just eight of 51 with five walks, but was against a good Philadelphia offense and a contact prone Toronto one. Pitch modeling believes this is the baddest man in baseball (137 Stuff+, 110 Pitching+) with sweeper, curveball and fastball grades all above 55 (PitchingBot). The Reds also happen to be a bottom three offense against the former two secondaries. On the season, a 20.9 K-BB%, but 9.2% Barrels/BBE produce a 3.83 xERA matching his 3.83 ERA with contact neutral estimators about half a run lower. Those barrels are a concern in this park, but he Cincinnati offense has been awful and only has an 11.5 HR/FB in this park.
Opp wRC+: 84 (26.3 K%, 80)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.66
Seven shutout innings at Coors, striking out nine for Frankie Montas. The two before that and the two after that were 18.1 innings with 14 runs. Montas has allowed just 5.9% Barrels/BBE, despite a 41% ground ball rate. However, with an 8.7 K-BB%, a 5.24 dERA is the outlier on estimators otherwise within one-fifth of a run of his 4.62 ERA. Pitch modeling is a bit more optimistic, seeing Montas as a perfectly average pitcher (100 Pitching+, 4.11 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 105 (115 Road)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.51
Better starter and better offense, both not by a small margin and better defense makes me wonder how the hell BOS is only -118 F5. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Orioles @ Astros
Blue Jays @ Guardians
Jose Berrios has thrown 11 quality starts, five of seven innings with two runs or less. The problem is that he has stranded 86.1% of his runners with a .260 BABIP. He has just an 11.2 K-BB% and 42.4% hard contact rate. Give his tremendous defense some credit, but he doesn’t have an estimator below four. Pitch modeling is only slightly more optimistic with a 3.98 Bot ERA and 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 105 (18.3 K%, 113 Home)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 4.51
Like his counterpart, Ben Lively has estimators more than a run above his 3.02 ERA. The only exception is a 3.62 xERA and it doesn’t make sense with 8.2% Barrels/BBE and a 42.9% hard contact rate, when all his other estimators exceed four, but I’ll count it same as the others. Lively’s 14.2 K-BB% is actually better than the league average for starting pitchers, but pitch modeling isn’t buying in so much (75 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+, 4.41 Bot ERA). PitchingBot does like the sweeper though (20.3, 1.9 RV/100, 58 PB grade) and it’s a pitch the Jays have struggled against (-0.32 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 98 (19.2 K%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 2.90
Estimators don’t see any difference between these two starting pitchers. Even giving Berrios the slight edge for pitch modeling, Cleveland has the better offense, a competitive defense and a massive bullpen edge. The Guardians have the best pen estimators in baseball over the last rolling month, while the Blue Jays are fifth worst. CLE -120.
Mariners @ Marlins
Braves @ Yankees
Charlie Morton is still posting a 24.8 K% with a 20 SwStr% last time out and a 13.6% rate over his last seven starts. The problems are a 9.8 BB% and 8.9% Barrels/BBE.Estimators all within one-third of a run of his 3.91 ERA suggest he’s not done yet, while the fastball (28.9%, -1.6 RV/100, 41 PB grade) is his only below average pitch. Six quality starts of two runs or less over his last 10 starts.
Opp wRC+: 125 (16 HR/FB, 124 Home)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.39
Marcus Stroman has struck out just eight of his last 98 batters with 11 walks, but actually has a 7.1 inning quality start and 5.2 shutout innings jammed in there. He has just a 6.7 SwStr% over his last 10 starts. With just a 6.5 K-BB% on the season, he doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half. Success is being completely driven by a .255 BABIP and 81.2 LOB%. Good for the Yankee defense gobbling up his ground balls (50.2%), but that ERA is in no way sustainable with the support of current peripherals. Pitch modeling wont’ save him either. A 94 Stuff+, 93 Pitching+ and 5.05 ERA. Pitching Bot assigns every pitch a below average grade.
Opp wRC+: 99 (136 L7 days)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.29
The Yankees have a large defensive edge here and certainly still an offensive one as well, but don’t look now because here come the Atlanta bats. Then we get to the pitching. Atlanta pen estimators are nearly a run better last 30 days and Morton’s worst estimator is still more than a quarter run better than Stroman’s best. I’ll take the dogs (+124).
Brewers @ Padres
Nationals @ Rockies
Angels @ Dodgers
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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