The good news is I got an early start and nearly got all the way home on Thursday night. Just three more games plus daily fantasy notes to post on Friday. The bad news is that F5 lines are becoming more and more rare the night before recently. After a rough 1-3 Thursday, maybe it's not the worst thing that I only found a single line of interest on my first run through and it just happens to be the first game of the day.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Mets @ Cubs
Jose Quintana is coming off one his better games in a while, striking out six of 21 Padres over six two hit innings. There’s nothing impressive about his 8.0 K-BB% or 44.6% hard contact rate. His 4.98 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. A 91.7 Z-Contact% are 7.2 SwStr% are both second worst on the day. The worst numbers belong to a former Met that got a $68m contract. Pitch modeling numbers? Yup, those are bad too. An 82 Stuff+ only works up to a 94 Pitching+ with a 4.98 Bot ERA and no individual pitch grades above 50.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -2
B30: 3.68
Shota Imanaga has bounced back from his first bout of adversity against the Brewers and White Sox with 13.2 innings of three run ball (13 strikeouts) against the Reds and Cardinals. An incredibly impressive 22.2 K-BB% is more built upon command (104 Pitching+, 3.04 Bot ERA) than pure stuff (92 Stuff+). With just seven of his 17 barrels leaving the park with most of his starts at Wrigley with the wind blowing in so far, Imanaga’s non-FIP estimators, all more than a run above his 1.89 ERA are still pretty strong, running on as high as a 3.69 dERA. He may run a lower than normal BABIP with a 34.3 GB%, but more of those fly balls will start leaving the yard in the warmer summer months and his 81.6 LOB% should regress. And even if/when they do, he’s exceeded everyone’s expectations.
Opp wRC+: 118 (19.8 K%, 121 Road, 146 L7 days)
DEF:-10
B30: 4.40
Sure, it makes sense that Andrew Heaney is the lefty to finally shut the Mets down. By starting pitching, the Cubs have a huge edge, about a run and a half, even using the regressed numbers. However, the Mets have large edges in every other aspect of this game. The Chicago bullpen looks like the New York one did last month. This one (Mets +136) is just a little too high. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 12:25 EST: Temps near 80 with a light wind in from right probably won't have much of an effect on events, but I'm adding an over here. Cubs third worst pen estimators L30 days, bottom 10 defense. A 1.11% gain on Mets.
Rays @ Pirates
Ryan Pepiot has allowed 17 runs over his last 26.1 innings, but with a 20.7 K-BB% that matches his season number (21%) and the same rate of barrels (11.3% to 10.1%) and hard contact (42.1% to 43.7%). He’s allowed 11 home runs on 16 barrels with all non-FIP estimators at least three-quarters of a run below his 4.57 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 82 (25 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.05
Luis Ortiz (unconfirmed) hasn’t started a game yet, but has been bulking behind an opener his last few times out. He has just an 18.9 K-BB% and 91.5 Z-Contact% on the year.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.09
Update 3:55 EST: Upper 80s, insignificant wind. Ortiz gets an opener again.
Diamondbacks @ Phillies
Jordan Montgomery is coming off his best start of the season, striking out seven of 21 White Sox over five innings without an earned run. His velocity was up to 92.4 mph, tying his highest game average of the season, but still a mph below last year. His best estimator is a 4.48 FIP.
Opp wRC+: 118 (115 Home)
DEF: 19
B30: 4.45
As mentioned earlier, Taijuan Walker’s 6.9 SwStr% and 92.4 Z-Contact% are both worst on the day. To his 10.4 K-BB%, he adds 13.8% Barrels/BBE and a 51.3% hard contact rate. His best estimator is a 4.57 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF:-1
B30: 2.93
Update 3:30 EST: 90 degrees w/ near double digit wind out to right. Walker 6.9 SwStr%, 2.75 K/SwStr. Each of first six in ARI LU < 21 K% v RHP since last year. No Marte hurts, Sosa in for Stott against LHP doesn't hurt. Considering conditions, also playing the over for 1.5 units here.
White Sox @ Tigers
With a 16.3 K-BB%, estimators ranging from a 3.30 dERA to a 3.64 SIERA only run slightly higher than Erick Fedde’s 3.09 ERA, though sustainability of those are in question with an 8.4 SwStr% and league average CStr%.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.5 K%)
DEF: -15.5
B30: 4.01
Jack Flaherty hasn’t allowed a run in three straight starts (16.2 IP), but that dates back to May due to back issues. His June velocity (92.5 mph) is more than a mph down from his previous season average (93.8) and while his 12.0 SwStr% is lower too (14.7% previously), it’s nothing to complain about. Season estimators are all more than one-third of a run below his 3.01 ERA. Health is the only question.
Opp wRC+: 77
DEF: 1
B30: 3.88
Update 3:15 EST: 80s w/ light breeze in from RF, Torres behind the plate, leans hitter friendly. Colt Keith bats 2nd. If I had more certainty about Flaherty's back healthy, I may have played the under.
Braves @ Yankees
Five of Chris Sale’s last six starts have been seven inning quality starts with no more than two runs and then there was the eight runs against the A’s. With a 26.7 K-BB%, 49.3 GB%, 5.3% Barrels/BBE and a 32% hard contact rate, forget about a comeback, this may be the best season of Sale’s career. All estimators are more than a quarter run below his 2.98 ERA. All four PichingBot grades are between 54 and 56 with a 3.38 Bot ERA. A 107 Stuff+ mark surprisingly works down to a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 106 (9.3 K-BB%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.45
None of Carlos Rodon’s three barrels allowed (20%) left Fenway, but the Red Sox did get him for five runs. Allowing 9.6% Barrels/BBE with an above average 16.5 K-BB% Rodon has estimators ranging from a 3.93 SIERA to a 4.57 dERA are all more than half a run above his 3.28 ERA. The 80.6% strand rate is a bit high, but Stuff+ actually like his arm (120 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+) more than Sale.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: 14.5
B30: 4.20
DFS Notes: Weather is mostly moderate on a 10 game slate that includes three protected environments. A chance of rain in a few spots. The only two offenses exceeding five are at Coors tonight with five more above four and a half runs and nearly half the board (eight) below four.
We start in the low 80s with a near double digit wind blowing in from near the right field pole. It’s a surprise to find both of these offenses below four implied runs on the bottom half of the board until you see who’s pitching. I’m confident enough in calling Sale my top pitcher today and a good value even as the highest priced arm. I’m rostering him in single entry on both sites and feel that the mighty Yankees might keep ownership reasonable too. I think Rodon is fine too in this spot, not because he’s exceeded expectations so much, as that the Braves aren’t what they’ve been in the past, though they do have a 136 wRC+ over the last week. Rodon seems a better value on DK ($8.6K). Rodon still allows quite a bit of hard contact though and I’d probably play a few Atlanta lineups where not playing Rodon. Kelenic (90 wRC+, .155 ISO v LHP since last season) would still be a decent value within $200 of $3K if in the leadoff spot. Albies torches lefties (160, .202) and Judge is in play against any LHP (200, .409). Aside from Weaver, a Yankee pen with below average estimators over the last 30 days has been fairly heavily worked against Baltimore.
Update 3:45 EST: Verdugo sits against a LHP (J.Jones), Gleyber sits too (Cabrera). Only 2 LHBs against Sale, but no split. Also slightly increases strikeout rates.
Red Sox @ Reds
Kutter Crawford appears to be emerging from his struggles, going six innings in four straight and striking out 17 of his last 47 batters with two straight quality starts. Most importantly, his cutter, a below average pitch last year, is now his top offering (30.5%, 0.2 RV/100, 58 PB grade) and he just so happens to be facing the worst offense in baseball against cutters (-1.5 wFC/C). With a 17.3 K-BB%, 34.6% hard contact rate and almost as many infield flies (18) as barrels (20), all estimators are above, but within half a run of Crawford’s 3.54 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 84 (26.3 K%)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.59
The regression monster seems to have located Andrew Abbott and is closing in on him with 13 runs over his last 22 innings, pushing his ERA up to 3.42, where’s actually above his 3.32 xERA (31.4% hard hit rate), but more than a run below all other estimators above four and a half. Lord knows how he survives in that park with an 18.3 K% and 33.8 GB%. Pitch modeling doesn’t seem to understand it either (96 Pitching+, 4.52 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 106 (28.1 K%, 115 Road, 149 L7 days)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.48
DFS Notes: This is the most hitter friendly weather with temperatures in the low 90s (no real wind), potentially playing GAB like Coors. Both teams are at 4.75 implied runs and Abbott is the pitcher I’m attacking here. RHBs have a .336 wOBA and .313 xwOBA against him since last season, although Refsnyder (138 wRC+, .102 ISO v LHP since last year), O’Neill (171, .306) and Rafaela (107, .211) are the only RHBs projected above a 100 wRC+ against LHP since last season. However, Dalbac and Gonzalez (below 70) are the only two projected not above a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days, while this is also a great comb for the Red Sox to steal another nine bases on. O’Neill is the only batter I have projected above Judge on this board. On the other end, I think the Reds are overvalued here. With batters from either side of the plate between a .280 and .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Crawford since last year, there is value in having some exposure to Cincinnati bats in this environment. Only Stephenson is below a 98 wRC+ and .145 ISO against RHP among those projected, but I also think Crawford is extremely undervalued for less than $9K against a below average offense overall here and especially against an offense that hates cutters. He may be my top pitching value on the board and among those fighting for the third spot overall behind Sale and Cease. He’s my clear DK SP2 and I wouldn’t mind playing him on FD either.
Update 4:15 EST: Refsnyder out, four LHBs against Abbott (why?). Gonzalez bats second. Stephenson & Martini sit for Reds. Have added BOS -115 F5 (not available last night) and BOS o4.5 (-120) based on information above. Both team totals have decreased, Boston 1/8 run, CIN 3/8.
Forgot to mention, O'Neill my HR boost on DK.
Blue Jays @ Guardians
Yariel Rodriguez made four marginal starts in April before hitting the IL with a back issue. Posting a 22.2 K% with just 6.4% Barrels/BBE, but also an 11.1 BB% and 44.7% hard contact rate. A 4.07 dERA is his only estimator below a 4.11 ERA. He has a 23 K-BB% over 20.1 innings without any outing lasting more than four innings. A reverse split, RHBs exceeded a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him prior to the injury.
Opp wRC+: 104 (18.1 K%, 110 Home)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 4.41
With just an 8.8 K-BB% and league average contact profile, Carlos Carrasco doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half, but all are more than half a run below his 5.80 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 against him since last season.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.2 K%)
DEF:5.5
B30: 3.01
DFS Notes: Low to mid-80s with a light breeze in from center. Cleveland has become a much more pitcher friendly par in recent seasons, though these are certainly two pitchers I have no interest in. The Guardians are upper half of the board at 4.64 implied runs with the Blue Jays just two spots behind (4.36). As mentioned, RHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Rodriguez, so Cleveland may maneuver a bit here, but is still likely to be predominantly left-handed. LHBs are at a .312 wOBA and xwOBA, though they’ll likely be facing plenty of a Toronto bullpen with the fifth worst estimators in the league over the last 30 days. Gimenez (94) has the lowest wRC+ against RHP since last year among projected Cleveland batters, but again, they normally line up seven or eight against most RHP. Fry has a 112 wRC+ and .152 ISO against same-handed pitching since last year. Batters from either side above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Carrasco since last season and while Cleveland has the best bullpen in all the land, there’s still more than enough reason to attack Carrasco here. Horwitz (137 wRC+, 109 ISO v RHP since last season) and Vlad (119, .172) are my two favorite Jays. Both exceed a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Cade Smith (57) has thrown three of the last five.
Update 4:35 EST: Significant lineup changes here. CLE does add three RHBs against Rodriguez and the Toronto pen, but Fry is NOT one of them (Freeman, Rodriguez, Hedges). Horwitz out, Schneider bats leadoff and my lineups need to be reconfigured again.
Mariners @ Marlins
Seven of George Kirby’s 15 outings have gone at least six innings with one run or less. Striking out more batters than average with elite control, a 21.4 K-BB% with an average contact profile produces estimators all at least a quarter run below his 3.54 ERA. The two Rangers Kirby walked last time out was the first time he’s walked more than one since his first start. He posts matching 106 Stuff+ and Pitching+ scores with a 3.19 Bot ERA and all pitches above a 50 PitchingBot grade
Opp wRC+: 86 (5.8 BB%, 88 Home)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.83
Trevor Rogers seems to finally be finding his path in 2024, allowing just eight runs over his last 23.1 innings, but with just a 6.3 K-BB%. That’s only marginally worse than his 7.6% season rate that comes with a 44.3% hard contact rate. Rogers has a 90.2 LOB% over the four start span that brings his season rate up to 70.3% and his 5.09 ERA within half a run of most estimators ranging from a 4.47 xFIP to a 5.3 xERA. Rogers may be best served offering the Mariners a heavy dose of changeups (23.4%, -1.3 RV/100, 62 PB grade), as the Mariners are fifth worst in the league against them (-0.59 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 93 (27 K%)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.70
DFS Notes: Roof generally closed, Miami is more neutral run environment than past seasons. Kirby’s 19.3 K% on the road has him in line with Crawford and a couple of others for me, fighting for that third overall spot and still a solid value for less than $10K. The Marlins are bottom of the board at 3.3 implied runs with the Mariners smack in the middle (4.2). LHBs have a .295 wOBA and .299 xwOBA against Kirby since last year and one would imagine that increases slightly on the road. I don’t hate Chisholm here (125 wRC+, .232 ISO v RHP since last year) and maybe even Sanchez (115, .189), but have no interest in any other Miami bat. On the other hand, RHBs have a .352 wOBA and xwOBA against Rogers since last year, while Garver (151, .178) and Moore (122, .257) may be two of my favorite values on the board. Crawford (127, .132) is also a top SS value with LHBs above .310 against Rogers too. Rodriguez (129, .160) should be included in bats and Bliss (110, .222) is a sneaky bat for wrap arounds. Stanek and Thornton exceed 20 pitches yesterday and have thrown two of the last three days.
Update 4:25 EST: The most pitcher friendly Bill Miller behind the plate, pushes Kirby past Cease for me. May have to reconfigure pitching, but Sale still #1 overall and Kutter my favorite value. May even give Rogers some value below $5.5K. Only a slight dip in valuation of SEA bats.
Royals @ Rangers
The good times have stopped rolling in June for Brady Singer, as he’s allowed 13 runs (11 earned) over 15.1 innings, striking out just 12 with five of seven barrels (12.7%) leaving the yard. Singer has a 16.2 K-BB% on the season, but with just a 9.4 SwStr% and 90.7 Z-Contact%, he has to rely on a 20.2 CStr% for a lot of his strikeouts, but then batters do swing and often make contact, they are barreling 9.9% of that contact. The result is a 4.77 xERA that’s more than half a run above his 4.16 FIP and contact neutral estimators closer to thee and a half. Singer had some success embracing elevated sinkers earlier in the sesason, but is down to 86 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ grades with that sinker (39.6%, 0.6 RV/100, 51 PB grade) his only above average pitch via PitchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 94 (19.7 K%)
DEF: 13.5
B30: 4.45
Nathan Eovaldi authored his first poor start back from the IL, walking four Mariners over three innings with four runs. Only four of his 11 starts have been of the quality variety, despite allowing more than two runs just three times. Eovaldi has simply failed to exceed 90 pitches six times, as the Rangers try to keep him as healthy as possible. A 9.8 BB% is offset by a 26 K%, 50 GB% and 5.8% Barrels/BBE. A tight range of estimators (3.41 dERA – 3.69 SIERA) are about a half run above his 3.15 ERA (80.5 LOB%). Pitch modeling is only slightly less enthusiastic, turning out a 103 Pitching+ (98 Stuff+) and 3.84 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 98 (19.1 K%)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.72
DFS Notes: A 104 park run factor (Statcast) with the roof closed and it almost always is mid-season, the Rangers (4.02) are mid-board with the Royals third from the bottom (3.48). They have a team 64 wRC+ over the last week, but Eovaldi’s workload, along with the lack of strikeouts, kills the value for a $9K price tag. Always Witt (127 wRC+, .222 ISO v RHP since last year), but otherwise not a strong attack spot. Remember, Eovaldi has that reverse split (RHBs .328 wOBA, .322 xwOBA since last year). Singer may be one of the worst values on the board against a struggling, but contact prone Texas offense. With LHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Singer since last year, always Seager (171, .303), one of my top overall bats, but little else. Smith (106, .148) matches Seager’s wRC+ above 170 over the last month, but nobody else besides Langford even stretches above 85 over this span. The Royals do have bottom five bullpen estimators over the last 30 days though.
Update 4:45 EST: Roof closed, as expected. Jankowski adds sixth LHB against Singer. KC goes six RHBs against Eovaldi's reverse platoon. Some of these managers are learning.
Orioles @ Astros
It always feels like Grayson Rodriguez is one burst away from becoming the Ace of this staff and a serious Cy Young contender. He’s exceeded seven strikeouts just once since his first start and completed seven innings for the first time all year last time out. Just six of Rodriguez’s 12 starts have been quality starts, despite allowing more than two runs only twice. Underlying numbers include an 18.4 K-BB% are on the verge of elite with a hard contact rate (39.8%) just under 40%. A 3.60 SIERA, 3.65 SIERA and 3.68 xFIP are nearly half a run above his 3.20 ERA (79.5 LOB%), but pitch modeling already lauds his talent (120 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 2.69 Bot ERA). Gray-Rod’s worst PB grade is a 58, while the changeup (19.4%, 1.5 RV/100, 60 grade) is the pitch to feature against the Astros (-0.86 wCH/C is fourth worst).
Opp wRC+: 110 (18.8 K%)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.67
Nearly 23 year old Jake Bloss is Houston’s second rated prospect (Fangraphs) with a 50 Future Value grade and a very recent scouting report giving him mid-rotation potential. He has the chance to have three above average pitches (fastball, slider, curve) with questionable command. He’s only had eight starts at AA (80.2 innings as a pro since last year’s draft overall), his first stop with a single digit walk rate (7.9%). It does all seem a bit rushed, but Houston is desperate with so many pitching injuries. Steamer is the only major projection system even appearing on his Fangraphs page with a 4.79 ERA/4.89 FIP combo.
Opp wRC+: 115 (114 Road)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.80
DFS Notes: Like Texas, a 102 park run factor with the roof closed, as it almost always is mid-season, the Orioles are fourth from the top (4.75) against a potentially over-matched pitcher making his debut with the Astros (3.75) bottom half of the board. We have nothing to work off of for Bloss, but aside from the top two, O’s are mostly moderately priced, all with at least a 95 wRC+ against RHP since last year among the regulars. Urias is the low man with a .137 ISO. Cowser (66) and Mullins (75) the only two below a 130 wRC+ L30 days. Rodriguez fits among that Kirby, Crawford grouping because this is a very tough matchup. I still think he’s playable here, but I’d have him behind the guys I’ve mentioned so far in terms of value, though maybe in line with Cease ($10K) on DK. LHBs have a .326 wOBA and .321 xwOBA against him since last season. Alvarez (169 wRC+, .299 ISO v RHP since last year) as a one off here is fine. He has a 200 wRC+ L30 days. Hader, Pressly and Abreu have all worked back to back days, between 25 and 30 pitches, enhancing Baltimore bats further tonight.
Update 4:55 EST: No official word, but would be shocked if roof were open. Bottom of the LU changes for both teams. Luperfido & Cabbage (Pena out) add four LHBs against Rodriguez, but two massive strikeout rates, makes him a better value too. I'd put Gray-Rod on par with Cease tonight now. So many decisions. Mateo and McCann in for Cowser and Urias.
Nationals @ Rockies
After a rude introduction to the league from the Mets, DJ Herz was slightly better against the Braves before striking out 13 of the 19 Marlins he faced with a 21.4 SwStr%. This will be his first road start. Unfortunately, pitch modeling does not see that as a sign to come with 94 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ marks and a 4.27 Bot ERA with only fastball (55.3%, 0.8 RV/100, 52 PB grade) receiving an above average PB grade. Herz has just a 40+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs), while the changeup 70 current and future value, expected to be the star of his game.
Opp wRC+: 89 (84 Home)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.45
Dakota Hudson hasn’t allowed more than four runs in nine game starts and only that many twice, despite just three quality starts over that span, the primary reason being that while he’s allowed a 41.5% hard contact rate over this span (41% season), only 3.8% of that contact has been barreled (5.3% season). Even with a 51.6 GB%, that’s unlikely to be sustainable. On the season, Hudson’s 4.89 ERA matches a 4.90 FIP with additional estimators slightly above five. Problematically for Hudson, he throws his sinker most often (32.5%, 0.4 RV/100, 39 PB grade) and that’s the only pitch the Nationals have been above average against (0.25 wSI/C is sixth best in the league).
Opp wRC+: 92 (85 Road)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.69
DFS Notes: A bit below 80 with a near double digit wind in from center, yet these are the only two teams exceeding five implied runs. If you believe in Herz more than pitch modeling, he costs $6.3K on DraftKings, though the Rockies have been slightly better against LHP, due mostly to Stallings (131 wRC+, .253 ISO v LHP since last season) and Goodman (146, .436). Bouchard (174, .324) is another bat to watch here. Jones (117, .176) and Stallings have been the best Colorado bats over the last month (> 130 wRC+). LHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Hudson since last year with RHBs at .319 and .348. The top half of the projected lineup looks strong (if Abrams back). Winker and Abrams top the projected lineup with a 107 wRC+ v RHP since last season. Thomas, Rosario and Abrams exceed a .175 ISO. Winker, Thomas and Abrams exceed a 110 wRC+ L30 days. The Rockies have the second worst pen estimators last 30 days too. Three of the last five days for Kinley (73).
Update 6:20 EST: Ruiz out.
Twins @ Athletics
Chris Paddack lasted 13 batters against the A’s in his last start with two more barrels and home runs than strikeouts (none). It was the sixth time in 14 starts he’d allowed four runs or more, but two runs or less in every other start. The 16.1 K-BB% exceeds expectations, though the contact profile is a problem (10% Barrels/BBE, 42.3% hard hit rate). While the fastball (42.5%, -0.5 RV/100, 60 PB grade) has been a great pitch and one Oakland normally struggles to hit (-0.5 wFA/C is sixth worst) and while the changeup grades even stronger (25.8%, -0.8 RV/100, 72 PB grade), it’s been ineffective in handling LHBs (.350 wOBA, .354 xwOBA since last year).
Opp wRC+: 96 (26.6 K%, 127 L7 days) (incl. Thu from here on)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.82
Just one quality start over Joey Estes’s first seven with a 14.1 K-BB%, but some of the same issues that plague Paddack (11.1% Barrels/BBE, 44.4% hard contact), yet a 4.25 xERA is his only estimator below four and a half. LHBs exceed a .390 wOBA and xwOBA against him. A 19.4 GB% may play well enough in this park, but it’s not something estimators generally reward. Estes owns an impressive 106 Pitching+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 107 (163 L7 days)
DEF: -8
B30: 4.47
DFS Notes: Low to mid-60s with a slight wind out to center seems standard for Oakland. Red hot Minnesota bats middle of the board (4.47) with the A’s near the bottom (3.53). Paddack is a bit more expensive than I’d expect (> $8.5K) and fine here, though probably sufficiently priced on DK. Mentioned above, Paddack’s issues against LHBs. Bleday (124 wRC+, .190 ISO v RHP since last season) the only one of note here. Toro (103, .139) has been struggling and out of the lineup. This is a tough combo to run on too. We’ve also mentioned Estes’s issues with LHBs. Everyone in the projected Minnesota lineup has at least a 100 wRC+ v RHP since last year with only Martin below a .160 ISO. Tough combo to run on here also, but the Oakland pen has the seventh worst estimators in the league last 30 days with Miller having Thursday off after throwing 28 pitches Tuesday and Wednesday. Nearly every important Minnesota reliever has thrown at least two of the last three days, but only 25 pitches for Duran who sat yesterday.
Update 5:40 EST: Kepler, Buxton, Jeffers out. Just three LHBs vs Estes.
Brewers @ Padres
Colin Rea has allowed just seven runs (six earned) over his last 28 innings and has a 15.4 K-BB% over his last 22.1 innings, a major improvement on his now 9.3% season rate. Rea has also allowed 9.8% Barrels/BBE, but with a sub-40% hard contact rate, producing estimators that are all more than a run above his 3.29 ERA, ranging as high as a 5.16 xERA. We’re likely looking at regression for a .256 BABIP and 80.5 LOB%. Pitch modeling is not impressed with what he’s throwing (85 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 120 (18.7 K%)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.67
The A’s are the only team Dylan Cease hasn’t allowed at least three runs to over his last seven starts, while the Mets punished him for a season high seven, including four barrels last time out. LHBs have a .354 wOBA against him over this span. Three more barrels in that Oakland start immediately prior drives his season rate up to 11.8%. A 3.81 ERA is Cease’s closest estimator to a 3.95 ERA with all others below three and a half. The three walks issued to the Mets were only his fourth start with that many, the five strikeouts tying a season low done several times. Aside from the barrels, Cease owns a 22.6 K-BB% and fantastic pitch modeling marks, including 122 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ scores and PitchingBot grades above 55 on his fastball and slider, although he may need a better neutralizer for LHBs.
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: -7
B30: 3.66
DFS Notes: Upper 60s with a light wind blowing across the field in a pitcher friendly environment, the Brewers are second from the bottom at 3.39 implied runs with the Padres middle of the board (4.11). As mentioned several times, Cease is my number two overall arm tonight, but not one of my favorite DK values at exactly $10K on both sites. Both teams are above average home/road and v RHP this year by wRC+, but neither exceeds a 90 wRC+ over the last week. There are not a lot of LHBs in the Milwaukee lineup currently, so Cease’s .328 wOBA and .312 xwOBA against them since last season can’t be exploited. RHBs have a .289 wOBA, but .311 xwOBA. Not an environment I want to attack Cease in on this board anyway. Rea may be my second worst value on the board behind Abbott, consider the low strikeout rates in the San Diego lineup. Yet, the environment also hurts Padres bats with none exceeding a .199 ISO v RHP since last season. If you don’t like Rea, stacking is likely the answer, rather than one offs with moderate power. Only Peralta is below a 99 wRC+ v RHP since last season among those projected. Rea could be run on. Nearly every San Diego reliever has worked two of the last three days, but Suarez only 22 pitches with yesterday off. Estrada has thrown nearly 100 pitches over the last five days.
Update 6:45 EST: Closing Friday out. New MIL lineup again. They've been laggers out on the west coast all week. Campusano in original LU was scratched. I've moved from Sale to Kirby on DK LU with pitcher friendly umpire, but remained Sale on FD. Ending up on SEA stacks too in single entry.
Angels @ Dodgers
Four quality starts with a total of four runs over Patrick Sandoval’s last four starts, but 20 runs over 20.1 innings in the other four. No consistency. Sandoval also has a 50 point split favoring RHBs since last year, despite the changeup (28.7%, 0.1 RV/100, 53 PB grade) being his highest graded pitch. Overall, he has an average 13.7 K-BB%, but has managed contact well (5.3% Barrels/BBE, 36.6% hard hit rate), producing estimators ranging from a 3.82 FIP to a 4.14 xERA all more than a run below Sandoval’s 5.24 ERA. You can blame a poor defense for that, but also a .342 BABIP and 64.9 LOB%. The Dodgers have only one pitch weaknes, the cutter, and Sandoval doesn’t have one.
Opp wRC+: 133 (18.4 K%)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 4.96
Landon Knack gave the Dodgers four starts before Buehler returned and now returns with Buehler hitting the IL again. A competent 12 K-BB% with just 6.8% Barrels/BBE, but 49.2% hard hit rate still produced a 3.52 xERA that’s his only estimator not more than a run and a half above his 2.61 ERA (.196 BABIP, 89.9 LOB%). Pitch modeling sees serviceability here too, but not much more (101 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+, 4.68 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 3
B30: 3.93
DFS Notes: Mid-70s is one of the warmer Dodger Stadium games this year with a near double digit wind out to center. Sandoval could have value in the right spots, but not here. Knack costs more than $7K. The Dodgers are the top offense outside Coors (4.92) with the Angels closer to the bottom (3.58). No Angels bats stand out. They’ll like be facing a lot of the Dodger pen. Love Dodger bats if you can afford them. Already mentioned Sandoval’s RHB problem, despite the changeup and the only two LHBs who play against LHP smash southpaws too. Kike (81) is the only below average Dodger bat against LHP since last year. He and Rojas (.140) the only pair below a .185 ISO against them. Pages (170, .185) and Vargas (117, .250) may be my favorite Dodger values. Freeman, Teoscar and Vargas all exceed a 170 wRC+ L30 days. Angels have the worst pen estimators in baseball last 30 days and it’s not even close. The Dodger pen has been heavily used the last few days, but only Vesia for more than 30 pitches.
Update 6:25 EST: Smith out. Still playing LAD o4.5 (-115) against the worst bullpen in the league.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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