The laptop made it through another day. Windows willing, I'll finish up the last three games early on Thursday. No daily fantasy content with just a pair of night games and no later updates on game once lineups are out, as I'll be out of the house most of the afternoon.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Diamondbacks @ Nationals
Pitch modeling has liked the fastball all along (49.6%, -0.4 RV/100, 56 PB grade), a pitch the Nationals struggle against (-0.29 wFA/C) is bottom third of the league, to go along with a 102 Pitching+ score, but Ryne Nelson has followed up recently with three outings of at least five innings and two runs or less over his last five starts (Dodgers, Giants, White Sox). However, he has a 5.9 K-BB% and 45.4% hard contact rate over this span with 12.2% Barrels/BBE, while he was smashed by the Padres two starts back, so it’s not as if there’s been any consistent improvement. His season stats produce estimators all below Nelson’s 5.49 ERA, a 5.04 xERA the only one not more than two-thirds of a run below with 9.5% Barrels/BBE. Allow that much hard contact (44.5%) without missing bats (15.8%) and there’s going to be trouble.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 16.5
B30: 4.66
Mackenzie Gore has allowed a single earned run with at least seven strikeouts in four of his last five starts, including the last two since his blowup against the Mets. Four of his seven walks over this five game span also came in that start. His breakout season includes a 21.1 K-BB% and average contact profile, producing a 3.24 ERA that’s below all non-FIP estimators (six home runs, 14 barrels), ranging only as high as a 3.69 xERA. Gore adds strong pitch modeling numbers, including 114 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ scores with a 3.33 Bot ERA and 68 grade fastball (54.5%).
Opp wRC+: 123 (19.8 K%)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.56
Mariners @ Guardians
Luis Castillo’s seven strikeouts against the White Sox were his most in over a month. Overall, his 18.6 K-BB% is his worst number since his last full season in Cincinnati, which is only slightly problematic when you’re a barrel prone pitcher (9.3%) and we see that in estimators ranging only from a 3.57 FIP to a 3.69 xFIP, a bit higher than his 3.32 ERA, which is probably the park effect. Castillo’s 103 Pitching+, 3.93 Bot ERA and PitchingBot grades between 49 and 55 on all his pitches, illustrate a closer to average pitcher. This is a concerning matchup only in the sense that the Guardians can exploit a 50 points split with seven or eight LHBs.
Opp wRC+: 103 (18.2 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.82
Logan Allen does have three quality starts over his last six and seven of his last nine starts have come on the road. However, with a mere 10.2 K-BB%, 46 Z-O-Swing%, 9.7% Barrels/BBE and 47% hard contact rate, Allen’s 5.30 ERA meets his 5.38 FIP and 5.11 xERA with contact neutral estimators around four and a half. He has a frightening 77 Stuff+ grade that only improves to a 91 Pitching+ one. Like Castillo, Allen’s even larger split can be exploited with a near entire lineup of RHBs.
Opp wRC+: 93 (27 K%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 2.98
Rays @ Twins
Zack Littell has struck out just seven of his last 71 batters with a 5.9 SwStr%. Sure, Baltimore twice and Atlanta, but he ain’t facing creampuffs here either. The Braves pounded his poorly located pitches for seven runs. Sometimes a 3.9 BB% can hurt you, but it only helps estimators when it conjures a 17.5 K-BB%. Estimators ranging from a 3.63 FIP to a 4.09 dERA are almost half a run below his 4.24 ERA. An 83 Stuff+ grade that works up to a 100 Pitching+ confirms Littell is a command over stuff guy, but in this instance, the splitter (22%, -0.7 RV/100, 67 PB grade) should find some success against the Twins (-0.92 wFS/C).
Opp wRC+: 107 (118 Home, 200 L7 days)
DEF: 1
B30: 4.11
Simeon Woods-Richardson has only faced more than 21 batters twice, but has now struck out 20 of his last 84 batters (12.2 SwStr%). Fastball velocity has slightly increased, but it’s been reduced reliance on his fastball and increased slider and changeup usage that’s likely responsible. The changeup (21.2%) has a chance to be his true weapon this year (65 PB grade), despite a negative run value (-2.5 RV/100) It was -3 RV/100 before his last start. Just six of SWR’s 16 barrels (9.8%) have left the park, so there should be some regression towards non-FIP estimators in the very low fours.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.61
Giving LIttell the slight edge, that’s the only edge the Rays have here, yet the Twins are such small home favorites (-120). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Astros @ White Sox
SpAghetti can miss bats (25.1 K%), but has walked exactly two or three in every single start (12.4%) with an average contact profile. A .363 BABIP and 68 LOB% have held him to a single quality start, though the Astros have let him hit 98 pitches in three of his last six starts. As you might expect, all estimators are more than a run and two-thirds below his 6.37 ERA. Arrighetti’s 84 Stuff+ grade only works up to a 98 Pitching+, but a 3.69 Bot ERA really likes the cutter (21.9%, 1.6 RV/100, 71 grade).
Opp wRC+: 77 (77 Home)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.95
With an 8.6 K-BB% and 8.5% Barrels/BBE, Chris Flexen does actually manage contact quite well otherwise (34.9% hard contact rate). Estimators ranging from a 4.66 xERA to a 4.95 dERA may be half a run below his 5.35 ERA, but still aren’t very good. Flexen’s fastball (38.4%, -1.6 RV/100, 35 PB grade) could get crushed by the Astros (0.53 wFA/C is fourth best in MLB).
Opp wRC+: 110 (18.9 K%)
DEF:-15.5
B30: 4.07
Dodgers @ Rockies
Gavin Stone has gone at least six innings in seven of nine starts, but his 3.01 ERA is a bit fluky with a 79.7 LOB%. He’s been a strong contact manager (5.7% Barrel/BBE, 33% hard contact rate) with just a 10.8 K-BB%, with estimators ranging from a 3.62 FIP to a 4.38 SIERA. That’s fine, but he’s a bit overvalued right now and pitch modeling gives us some confirmation of this (97 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+, 4.23 Bot ERA). A point of contention for Stone in this game might be his changeup (26.2%, 0.9 RV/100, 45 PB grade), a pitch the Rockies have hit well (0.92 wCH/C is sixth best in the league).
Opp wRC+: 82 (25.5 K%, 83 Home, 134 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.18
Speaking of going deep into games Ty Blach has faced at least 25 batters in five straight. However, even with a 4.1 BB% on the season, Blach posts just an 8.3 K-BB% with a moderate contact profile, projecting estimators ranging from a 4.35 FIP and xFIP to a 5.21 dERA. This is where pitch modeling disagrees. Blach has 71 Stuff+ and 92 Pitching+ marks, but a .381 Bot ERA with his three most frequently thrown pitches all receiving grades above 50.
Opp wRC+: 128 (18.6 K%, 123 Road, 121 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.81
Where do the Rockies have an edge? Well, defenses might be even, but really nowhere. It’s not even close by offense or bullpen with Stone likely half a run better than Blach too. Still, all that can be true, as it is here, and a large home dog (+205) could still have some value. That’s what I believe to be the case here.
Royals @ Athletics
Seth Lugo is three outs away from having gone at least six innings in every start this season and is averaging nearly three full times through the lineup. Two issues. Just eight of 22 barrels (7.7%) have left the yard. The perks of pitching in Kansas City. However, the 83.7 LOB% is plainly unsustainable. Lugo is backing a 2.40 ERA with a good, not great 14.8 K-BB% and 39.5% hard contact rate. Non-FIP estimators are all almost exactly a run and a half above that ERA (3.90 xERA – 3.97 dERA). What a shock! This is very similar to the pitcher he was last year and probably still is. Pitch modeling not only doesn’t help him, but thinks it’s worse (98 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+, 4.27 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 96 (26.8 K%, 105 Home)
DEF: 13.5
B30: 4.39
Mitch Spence’s 10.8 K-BB% through six starts nearly matches his season rate (12.7%), while he’s allowed 10 barrels (9.8%) with a 43.1% hard contact rate in a starting role. With just two of those barrels leaving the park, that’s a 3.69 ERA/3.31 FIP/4.29 xFIP as a starter. His season non-FIP estimators are all below, but within one-third of a run of his 3.95 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 98 (18.1 K%, 85 Road)
DEF: -8
B30: 4.51
Taking Spence’s full season estimators with a grain of salt and pushing them closer towards Lugo’s around four or even slightly higher, the A’s F5 (+120) still seems to be the play here. The fact is, Lugo is way overvalued right now.
Orioles @ Yankees
While there’s still a significant gap between Cole Irvin’s 3.03 ERA and non-FIP estimators (more than a run), PitchingBot has jumped aboard this train. Every pitch grade above 50 with a 3.57 Bot ERA. Some conflict with an 82 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+. Back to those estimators, he’s walked just 4.6% of batters, but with a 17.9 K% (7.4 SwStr%) and 9.5% Barrels/BBE. Just six of those 21 barrels have been home runs because Baltimore, but that’s three of three barrels in just five road starts with Cincinnati the only power friendly park he’s pitched in all year. This would be the second.
Opp wRC+: 106 (125 Home) (incl. Wed from here on)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.67
Luis Gil has walked five of his last 46 batters with 11 strikeouts. We knew his crazy pace wouldn’t last and a 12.0 SwStr% should have been a partial tipoff that he was going to have trouble sustaining a strikeout rate above 30%. A 12.4 BB% is a problem, a hard contact rate less than three points above his strikeout rate (30.4%) is not. A 2.71 xERA is Gil’s only estimator not more than a run above his 2.03 ERA with contact neutral estimators above three and a half. Gil’s 112 Stuff+ mark works down to a 101 Pitching+ and his 4.01 Bot ERA doesn’t include a PitchingBot grade above 55 on any of his three pitches.
Opp wRC+: 115 (114 Road, 115 L7 days)
DEF:14.5
B30: 4.20
Giants @ Cardinals
This is the Rickwood game, of course. I have no idea how this park will play, but we have a pair of pitchers who keep the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time. Keaton Winn struggled in his return from the IL, striking out seven of 22 Rangers, but also allowing seven runs with just a 33% ground ball rate and 58.3% hard hit rate. He has a better all-around outing against the Angels, recording the bare minimum quality start (six innings, three runs), striking out six of 25. For a guy with a 51.6 GB%, Winn sure allows a lot of barrels (9.1%) and that’s because exactly half his contact has reached a 95 mph exit velocity. With just a 12.0 K-BB%, he has contact neutral estimators around four, but a 4.69 FIP and 5.28 xERA creeping closer to his…yikes…6.66 ERA. The 58.7 LOB% should resolve to a better number. Winn has strong Stuff+ (112) and Pitching+ (103) metrics, but just a 4.02 Bot ERA. The splitter (40.3%, -0.3 RV/100) is, by far, his top graded pitch (58 PB) and also an offering the Cardinals have trouble with (-0.61 wFS/C), but then again, so has most the league.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 10
B30: 3.76
With 59.1% of his contact on the ground, only 3.4% of Andre Pallante’s contact has been barreled, though more problematically for him is a 7.4 K-BB% and 92.6 Z-Contact%. He hasn’t allowed a barrel with only 18 hard hit batted balls over 17.1 innings as a starter win an improved 11 K-BB%. With a 92 Stuff+, 93 Pitching+ and 5.13 Bot ERA, Pallante doesn’t have a single PitchingBot grade above 47.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF:-3
B30: 3.98
Brewers @ Padres
Sometimes and opener, sometimes now, Bryse Wilson has posted a 3.84 ERA that’s more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 4.44 SIERA to a 4.83 dERA. With a high pitch count of 91 (done twice), Wilson has just a 9.8 K-BB% and 44.7% hard contact rate (8.0% Barrels/BBE). The .257 BABIP and 78.1 LOB% seem somewhat regression worthy. The arsenal includes a 92 Stuff+ grade (97 Pitching+) and 4.38 Bot ERA with only one above average offering (curveball 16.7%, -0.3 RV/100, 57 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 119 (18.6 K%, 117)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.52
Adam Mazur has walked 13 of the 61 batters he’s faced with just eight strikeouts (7.8 SwStr%). On the positive end, he hasn’t allowed a barrel and only 13 hard hit batted balls (32.3%). Moving quickly through the system, the 23 year-old with a 45 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) has not been below a 16.1 K-BB% at any level and even that was A ball. He’s never had a walk rate above 5.1%, but with a 45 Future Command grade.
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: -7
B30: 3.63
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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