My knowledge of the inner workings of a computer are pretty much limited to the power switch, but even I know that you're not supposed to see a screen that alternates flashing black and then blue with desktop icons disappearing and reappearing upon boot up. Second reboot stabilized things enough to complete the day's work, but I have no idea what is going to happen once I flip on Wednesday morning. As such, my mid-season break could come a bit earlier than expected and this could be my last post for awhile. I just lost a great tech guy last year too, when he closed shop. I'm guessing it's a Windows issue, but who knows? It's always something, right?
Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox +184 were a night savor on Tuesday after some insufferable F5 hijinks. Right now, I'm just hoping for the opportunity to post the last six games, along with DFS notes. Fingers crossed.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open @ mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Tigers @ Braves
Tarik Skubal struck out just a pair of Astros in his last outing, but held an 11.9 SwStr%. He’s recorded seventh inning starts in half his 14 starts with all estimators below three. Skubal takes a 58 grade fastball (32.6%, 2.4 RV/100) against an Atlanta offense that has struggled to hit fastballs this season (-0.09 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 106 (111 Home & L7 days)
DEF: 1
B30: 4.05
I’m usually the Reynaldo Lopez party pooper, but even I can’t deny that he’s struck out 23 of his last 69 with a 14 SwStr%. A 17.7 K-BB% with all estimators below four, but still an 85.8 LOB% and 5.4 HR/FB that are going to regress. Just four home runs on 14 barrels. Lopez doesn’t have a pitch graded above 54 (PitchingBot) and the two that do receive 54 grades (fastball, curveball) are the only two pitches the Tigers are above average against (0.32 wFA/C & wCU/C).
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.79
Update 11:40 EST: Mid-80s, double digit wind in from left. No Vierling. Keith bats second.
Reds @ Pirates
Hunter Greene walked five for the third time in seven starts last time out. He’s down to a 15.1 K-BB%, but continues to manage contact well (5.2% Barrels/BBE, 33.3% hard hit rate). Estimators range from a 3.12 xERA to a 4.36 xFIP with his now 10.7 BB%. Pitch modeling still believes in his arm (124 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+, 3.49 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 83 (24.9 K%)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.42
I finally boarded the Mitch Keller train just in time for it to derail last time out. The results weren’t awful (four runs, six innings, no walks, four strikeouts), but snapped a string of six straight quality starts. His 15.4 K-BB% is somehow more impressive than Greene’s. Expectations. Estimators from a 3.60 FIP to a 4.23 dERA. Very similar.
Opp wRC+: 87 (26.4 K%)
DEF: -15.5
B30: 4.08
Update 11:50 EST: 90 degrees, light breeze in from right. Reds empty the bench, but who are they really missing with a below average offense anyway? Line has moved because of this and hate going against it, but with starting pitching, offense and defense all about even, Reds (+116) pen estimators 2/3 run better L30 days and rested.
Cardinals @ Marlins
Kye Gibson last four starts: 24.2 IP – 97 BF – 7 ER – 3 HR – 8 BB – 27 K
Still has a 4.78 xERA. Additional estimators are more than half a run lower, but more than half a run above his 3.44 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 85 (86 Home)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.23
Maybe a bullpen game?
Opp wRC+: 103 (v RHP)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.88
Update 12 EST: Chirinos gets the start. Career 12.8 K-BB%. 8.8% in 66 AAA innings this year. Chisholm out.
Padres @ Phillies
It’s nice to see that Matt Waldron can still pitch effectively when the knuckleball is not all that. Last four starts: 26.1 IP – 97 BF – 4 ER – 0 HR – 4 BB – 18 K – 32.9% hard contact rate. The xERA (3.38) and FIP (3.36) are well below contact neutral estimators (4.00 SIERA, 4.11 xFIP).
Opp wRC+: 108 (114 Home)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.61
Ranger Suarez has pitched at least seven innings four times and has allowed a total of one run in those four starts. His numbers just dance off the page (21.8 K-BB%, 51.4 GB%, 5.5% Barrels/BBE, 34.1% hard contact) and he throws (31.8%, 1.1 RV/100, 59 PB grade) what the Padres hate: sinkers (-1.24 wSI/C is worst in the league).
Opp wRC+: 94 (18.1 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 2.95
Update 12:15 EST: 90 degrees w/ light wind out to center. Turner out, Stott bats second. Cronenworth out. Phils now heavy favs and they should be.
Giants @ Cubs
This might be Spencer Howard, who has walked seven against three strikeouts over two starts.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.72
Kyle Hendricks has pitched effectively enough out of the pen last few outings (8.2 innings of scorless ball) to get another shot. In fairness, his 8.20 ERA is more than two and a half runs above all estimators, but a 5.59 xERA (7.8 K-BB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 30.6% hard hit rate) isn’t exactly good.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -5
B30: 4.39
Update 12:20 EST: Mid-90s, double digit wind out to left-center.
Diamondbacks @ Nationals
Bounce back game for Brandon Pfaadt last time out, striking out eight Angels over six one run innings, but we have to understand what he was really bouncing back from. A 64% strand rate? All estimators are still at least two-thirds of a run below his 4.38 ERA with an 18.8 K-BB%, allowing just 5.7% Barrels/BBE. A 106 Stuff+ and Pitching+, along with a 2.79 Bot ERA confirm the potential is there, while he takes a potentially elite fastball (36.2%, 1.3 RV/100, 64 PB grade) against an offense that struggles to hit them (-0.26 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 16.5
B30: 4.61
With a 14 K% and 49% hard hit rate (10.6% Barrels/BBE), a 6.81 xERA suggests that Patrick Corbin is getting off light with a 5.84 ERA and after several years of too much hard contact, I tend to believe that more than contact neutral estimators a bit below five, which he complements with a 78 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 123 (19.8 K%)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.73
It’s not that I’m so high on Brandon Pfaadt as much as the numbers believe he’s generally severely underpriced whether it’s daily fantasy or sportsbooks. I’ve played him for more than a full unit several times and will do so again here (-145 F5). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 1:30 EST: 90 degrees with a double digit wind towards the left field pole. A 7.04% and 51 cent gain on ARI F5. Insane. You could hedge at a profit now. I'm not doing any such thing. In fact, I'm adding half a unit on ARI o5.5 +105.
Mariners @ Guardians
A Woo Bibee matchup might be my second favorite of the year behind Pfaadt Abbott. It seems there’s been injury concerns about Woo all season, but he’s in there holding his velocity around 94.5 mph and has allowed just 16 hits and two walks in 33.2 innings this season with four straight quality starts. Strikeouts are down, but his 18.5 K-BB% exceeds last season, as he’s attending the George Kirby school of strikes. He’s also allowed 2.2% Barrels/BBE with a 34.8% hard contact rate. You’d think the Guardians would be a tough matchup for him, as they can regularly run out seven or eight LHBs (.337 wOBA, .314 xwOBA against Woo career), but they also don’t hit sinkers (-0.62 wSI/C is bottom third of the league) and Woo has a great one (26.7%, 3.8 RV/100, 77 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 103 (18.3 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.76
Whatever IT is, Tanner Bibee has found. He did allow four runs (two home runs) last time out, but just a single barrel and 22.2% hard contact rate, while striking out 11. The two home runs were the only hard hit batted balls against him! Now up to a 21.3 K-BB% with a 34.3% hard contact rate, Bibee’s estimators, ranging from a 3.27 SIERA to a 3.76 xERA are all below his 3.94 ERA. In his case, he throws both a changeup (18.2%, 2.4 RV/100, 66 PB grade) and slider (30.1%, 1.9 RV/100, 58 grade) that the Mariners struggle with (-0.56 wCH/C, -0.71 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 99 (27.8 K%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 2.91
The best pen in the league, two solid defenses and a pair of average offenses. Both pitchers, aside from being good, throw pitches the other team has trouble with. Generally, I’ll wait for a weather report in non-dome stadiums before playing a total, but I have this one going far enough under that a 10-15% boost won’t matter.
Update 3:50 EST: Low to mid-80s, very little wind and Doug Eddings behind the plate, couldn't ask for a better umpire to enhance the under, which has dropped half a run. Seven LHBs for Woo to face. large movement towards Cleveland. Almost too much on the F5.
Orioles @ Yankees
Cade Povich made his second major league start a week ago and his effort against the Braves (6IP – 0 R – 0 BB – 6 K) was much better than against the Blue Jays (5.1 – 6 ER – 4 BB – 2 K). The fifth ranked prospect for the O’s (Fangraphs) is a back end top 100 prospect (94) with a 50 Future Value grade. He’s only allowed nine hard hit batted balls (25%) with an 11.6 SwStr% after posting a 23.4 K-BB% over 56.2 AAA innings this year.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.90
Gerrit Cole has struck out 19 of 44 batters without a walk over a pair of AA and one AAA rehab starts. Last year’s Cy Young winner had his lowest K-BB (21.2%) since his Pittsburgh days, but he allowed five fewer barrels with 13 fewer home runs than the year before with the same hard contact rate. In other words, the stuff he couldn’t so much control was better. Maybe the reason Cole has projections around three and a half. He was thought to be still a few starts away after his most recent minor league start, throwing just 68 pitches with reduced velocity.
Opp wRC+: 78 (26.1 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.26
DFS Notes: An eight game slate includes the same pair of domes as Tuesday, but weather much less of a factor overall on Wednesday. It’s a pitching heavy slate, illustrated by the Dodgers nearly a run and a half above the field and then the Brewers the only other offense above four and a half implied runs, half a run above every other team.
We start with a bit above 80 degrees and a double digit wind blowing right to left in the Bronx. A small change in direction could alter the run environment. Aaron Judge left last night’s game after being hit by a pitch in the hand. Not a Mookie Betts situation, but probably not in the lineup tonight? The Yankees are middle of the board at 4.11 implied runs with the O’s third from the bottom (3.39). The issue with Cole as alluded to above. At least $9K against a great offense in a game where he’s likely to be limited. And he was throwing with reduced velocity in his most recent rehab outing. Doesn’t mean he’ll do so here, but we don’t need to take that risk on this board. Povich for $5.8K without having to face Judge as a LHP…hmm. Maybe. Bats of interest here include Henderson (149 wRC+, .294 ISO v RHP since last season), who is now matchup proof and Soto (145, .193). LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Povich so far with RHBs below .240. Both these batters exceed a 170 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Update 4:45 EST: No Judge, but Yankees leaning into the small sample reverse split from Povich with four LHBs. Mateo in for Westburg. Significant line movement towards O's considering Judge and likely Cole limitations.
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
We have a pair of struggling pitchers here. Brayan Bello has allowed 14 runs (13 earned) over his last 15.2 innings and is sitting on just an 11.6 K-BB% with a 42% hard hit rate on the season. However, with 10 of 14 barrels leaving the park, non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.76 xFIP to a 4.24 xERA are more than three-quarters of a run below his 5.00 ERA with a hefty 54.9 GB%. Bello has strong pitch modeling metrics, including a 104 Stuff+ grade, 105 Pitching+ and 3.43 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19 K%, 98 Home)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.45
Kevin Gausman sandwiched a dominant shutout against the A’s between poor starts against the Orioles and Guardians (both at home). He combines an 18.4 K-BB% (his worst mark since 2019) with a 43.2% hard contact rate and 10.8% Barrels/BBE to post a 4.94 xERA that’s his only estimator not more than half a run below a 4.08 ERA. Gausman’s pitch modeling offers a 97 Stuff+ grade, which works up to a 106 Pitching+ and 3.70 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 104 (115 Road, 148 L7 days)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.40
I’ve got Gausman nearly half a run better than Bello, along with Toronto’s defensive advantage. However, just as on Tuesday, the Red Sox have been the better offense by not really a small margin and have the far better bullpen. I’ll take plus money here (+116).
DFS Notes: Missed the roof opening last night because @Isthedomeopen didn’t post until seven minutes AFTER first pitch, while another account suggested there were storms in the area. Anyway, a 96 run factor increases to 102 on average with the roof open, according to Statcast three year park factors as of the beginning of June. The Blue Jays are middle of the board at 4.23 implied runs with the Red Sox closer to the bottom (3.77). Just because I took the Red Sox here doesn’t mean we can find the prices at which going the other way in daily fantasy might be profitable and that starts with Gausman as a high risk option who I still think has upside against a strong, but strikeout prone offense. That price for him is less than $8.5K, but that’s probably more a multi-entry thing where you’d like to have some exposure. Not enough strikeouts in the Toronto lineup for a volatile pitcher like Bello without the same upside. It does behoove him to be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup, but LHBs have a .377 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against Bello since last year and Spencer Horwitz (131 wRC+, .117 ISO v RHP since last season) is cheap and second base eligible on DK. Beware this has been one of the tougher bullpens in baseball though, behind Bello. Alternatively, you also want some red hot Boston exposure in multi against Gausman with LHBs up to .331, .329 against him since last season. Yoshida is the only projected Boston bat below a 120 wRC+ L30 days. This combo can be run on and the Toronto pen has been near the bottom of the league over the last month. Three of last four for Jansen and Bernadino, but less than 30 pitches overall for each. Three of last four for Pearson (36) too.
Update 4:35 EST: Both lineups are in, but I don't anticipate any roof info from the one account dedicated to only that. Turner bats second, Jansen fifth. A 2.05% loss on Boston and somehow I feel more confident in that than the over 7% gain on ARI F5.
Rays @ Twins
Taj Bradley most recently struck out 11 of 27 Cubs over seven innings (two runs, none earned). He had been cutting down his curveball usage, but also cut out the cutter in this game, going almost exclusively heater/slider, an approach that I’m not sure will work as well against a more left-handed heavy Minnesota lineup. An elite 24.0 K-BB%, but also 14.7% Barrels/BBE, though none over his last two starts, Bradley has a 4.28 FIP and 4.41 dERA that meet his 4.23 ERA, but a 3.01 SIERA and 3.12 xFIP project what is possible if he can carry his recent contact profile forward. Stuff+ (113) and Pitching+ (103) concur, though Bot ERA (4.52) seems to side with the overall contact profile, which means he needs to continue to locate better.
Opp wRC+: 107 (118 Home, 200 L7 days – had to double check that one) (Incl. Tue from here on)
DEF: 1
B30: 4.11
Seven inning quality starts with two runs or less in FIVE of his last SEVEN starts for Joe Ryan! What does he think this is? The 80s? A 20.8 K-BB% over this span is actually lower than his season rate (22.7%), while his rate of barrels (12.4%) and hard contact (43%) are higher than their season rates as well. There’s a .212 BABIP and 86.8 LOB% that need to regress, but on the season, all estimators are within one-third of a run of his 3.24 ERA. It’s not the stuff (98 Stuff+), it’s how he uses it (104 Pitching+). All PitchingBot grades exceed 55 (2.61). The Rays have been below average against basically every pitch type too.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.61
DFS Notes: It’s 70 degrees with a light wind right to left in or left to right, one or the other in Minnesota. The Twins are smack middle of the board at 4.2 runs with the Rays second from the bottom at 3.3. I have Ryan as the second best overall arm on this slate, but not the best bargain on a star studded board. Bradley has a ton of upside, but also a lot of risk. I’d have a mult-entry lineup or two, but not a ton against the hottest offense in a long time. Ryan has a 25 point reverse split by xwOBA, 50 by wOBA since last season, but I have no interest in Tampa Bay bats. Tough pen behind him and Jeffers has a good arm. Reverse split for Bradley too (RHBs .366 wOBA, .358 xwOBA, LHBs .300, .296). Royce Lewis (172 wRC+, .318 ISO v RHP since last season) is the man here if you can afford him. Martin is the only projected Twin below a .160 ISO against RHP since last season with Santana (96) the only one below a 100 wRC+. Bradley can be a power friendly pitcher, but is tough to run on. The Tampa pen has been heavily used, including Fairbanks (54) four of six and Adam (66) three of five. Same for the Twins with Duran (44) three of five, Jax (59) four of six and Alcala (36) two of three.
Update 4:55 EST: Vazquez in for Jeffers. Just as good a throwing arm. Bottom third of TB lineup shuffled a bit, only slightly increases strikeout rates for Ryan. Still view him behind Ragans, ahead of Peralta overall. Both team totals have increased a bit.
Mets @ Rangers
Sean Manaea followed up a pair of rough ones with five innings of one run ball and seven strikeouts (one walk) against the Padres. A 22.7 K-BB% over his last six starts, 12.9% Barrels/BBE over this span gives him a 5.04 ERA/4.04 FIP that’s actually above his season numbers. On the season, all estimators are within one-third of a run of his 4.11 ERA with below average pitch modeling.
Opp wRC+: 87 (59 L7 days)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.65
The north/south approach was working for Andrew Heaney until it wasn’t. Six runs over his last 10.1 innings, A solid 15.2 K-BB% this season comes with fewer strikeouts and walks than normal, but the real improvement has been in his lowest barrel rate (7.2%) since 2015, though with a 42% hard contact rate that’s his third highest. Sustainable with a 35 GB%? Who knows? A 4.84 dERA is Heaney’s only estimator more than one-third of a run removed from his 4.19 ERA. Stuff+ degrades him to 81 with a 98 Pitching+, though all PitchingBot grades are average or better (3.86 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 119 (19.3 K%, 123 Road, 164 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.79
DFS Notes: A 104 park run factor with the roof closed, which it nearly always is after May. Both teams at 4.25 implied runs are actually tied for the fourth highest total on this board and the Mets have been SMASHING LHP. I’m not interested in either pitcher from this game and would certainly go overweight on the Mets in multi-entry. Grossman (154 wRC+, .197 ISO v LHP since last season) is one of my favorite OF values on the board against Manaea (RHBs .314 wOBA, .330 xwOBA since last season). Semien (135, .179) is a strong second base option where affordable. They are two of just four projected Rangers (Seager, Langford) above a 90 wRC+ L30 days. The Mets pen has been a lot tougher recently with Diaz seeming to return to form. Heaney has about a 20 point reverse split, but with all batters above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. I wonder if it’ll be McNeil or Iglesias tonight. The latter has a 172 wRC+ since being recalled. In fact, the entire projected Mets lineup exceeds a 110 wRC+ over the last 30 days and only Alvarez is below a 109 wRC+ against LHP since last season. Lindor (147 wRC+, .276 ISO) and Martinez (156, .287) are my favorite Mets and in both my single entry lineups. First draft at least. Yates (21) and Robertson (31) threw in a loss last night. Leclerc (27) two of the last three. No Mets reliever has thrown more than 15 pitches last two days except for Ottavino.
Update 5:05 EST: Roof closed. Smith in for Taveras adds third LHB against Manaea.
Astros @ White Sox
More cutters and sinkers at the expense of four-seamers has been the formula for his recent success, although it probably doesn’t hurt that he’s been throwing half a mph harder too. Brown has a 28.4 K-BB%, 60.7 GB% and 28.6% hard contact rate over this run. His season totals include 11 home runs, but just nine barrels. All non-FIP estimators are more than a run below his 5.00 ERA and improving. Brown has a 105 Stuff+ mark and 104 Pitching+ over his last four starts.
Opp wRC+: 77 (77 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.95
Garrett Crochet has allowed nine runs (either earned) over his last 53 innings with a 32.5 K-BB% (29.8% season) and 31.3% hard contact rate. Just as importantly, he’s not faced at least 24 batters in three straight starts after having done that exactly once prior to that. With 10 of 13 barrels leaving the yard, a 2.72 FIP is his only estimator not more than half a run below his 3.16 ERA. Fastball (54.9%) and cutter (24.8%) PitchingBot grades exceed 65.
Opp wRC+: 108 (15.5 K%)
DEF: -15.5
B30: 4.07
DFS Notes: Mid-80s with a light wind in from the right field pole here. Both teams are a bit below four implied runs. I regret laying off Crochet last time out due to workload concerns. Now that that issue has been resolved, the problem is that the Astros just don’t strike out. I actually have Hunter Brown graded ahead of him in this spot (barely). In fact, for less than $8K, I have Brown as one of the top bargains on this board and would use him on both sites. I expect to see a lot of ownership on DK, but that’s fine. He’s my SP2. Alvarez (148 wRC+, .205 ISO v LHP since last season) and Altuve (138, .164), Robert (119, .291) and Pham (107, .147) are the only bats I’m even entertaining thoughts of here and probably not for very long, although Brown’s reverse split is reversed by Statcast.
Update 5:15 EST: Slight temp and wind increase, but no directional change. Team totals slightly decreasing. Alvarez out again. Hummel replaces. All RH LU for HOU. Crochet has the slightest reverse split. Problem is that it's still a low K lineup. Large F5 move towards CWS w/ Alvarez out.
Dodgers @ Rockies
Bobby Miller has a 36 K%, but 12 BB% and 11.5% Barrels/BBE through three starts before hitting the IL. He made four rehab starts, the last two at AAA, striking out just six of 42 batters with five walks and seven runs. The Dodgers think he’s ready to go though. Or perhaps they don’t have a choice with Yamamoto hitting the IL. Pitch modeling gave his early season work a 126 Stuff+ grade, but 101 Pitching+, while only the changeup (18.8%, 41 grade) was below a 55 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 82 (83 Home, 134 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.18
Here we go again. Ryan Feltner has struck out 15 of his last 46 batters (Pirates & Cardinals) mirroring an early April stretch where we thought he might be onto something before a stretch of five starts where he struck out 16 in total. Feltner has more than doubled his curveball usage over his last five starts, three at home (I guess Coors doesn’t kill breaking balls like it’s supposed to anymore). With a 14.2 K-BB% on the season, including an average contact profile, Feltner’s non-FIP estimators (12 home runs, 17 barrels) are all more than one and a half runs below (and below four) his 5.71 ERA. Will he hold the gains this time?
Opp wRC+: 121 (123 Road, 121 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.81
DFS Notes: Below 70 with a near double digit wind out to left. The only question is how many Dodgers you can afford at 6.2 runs (Rockies 4.3 are third best) and my answer, unfortunately, was NOT Ohtani (201 wRC+, .373 ISO v RHP since last season). LHBs have a .371 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Feltner since last year and maybe he’s better now? I was able to roster Freeman (168, .228), Heyward (123, .198) and Biggio (98, .133) on one site or both though. RHBs are at .317, .291 against Feltner. Lux is the only projected Dodger below a 100 wRC+ L30 days and we’re happy to attack the bullpen behind Feltner. No, we’re not rostering Miller tonight. He does have a reverse split in his short career (LHBs below a .265 wOBA and xwOBA), so I might have a COL stack just in case in multi, we’re not really interested in home bats here either. They’ll likely only see Miller twice. Kinley (50) two of the last three, while Beeks threw 29 pitches on Tuesday.
Update 5:35 EST: Smith sits, Pages hits cleanup. Blackmon sits. Just five LHBs against Miller's reverse split. Wasn't it just a week ago that the Rockies only had like three LHBs at all?
Brewers @ Angels
Freddy Peralta has a 5.50 ERA/4.51 FIP over his last 10 starts with an 18.3 K-BB% (22.3% season) with nine of 14 barrels (10.3%) leaving the yard and a 30.9% hard contact rate. The absolute culprits here are that home run rate (15.8 HR/FB), .323 BABIP and 68.8 LOB%. He did have a pair of one run outings back to back in there and the sample size is getting large enough for concern, but the underlying numbers stil caution against it. He still has a 106 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+ over this span with PitchingBot grades above 50 on his fastball and slider.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 11
B30: 3.64
The Great Houdini…I mean Tyler Anderson has allowed exactly one run in five of his last six, despite a 1.9 K-BB% and 8.8% Barrels/BBE. How’s a .227 BABIP and 92.2 LOB% sound? Almost as ridiculous as his .225 and 87% season rates. Also, just 10 of 24 barrels have turned into home runs pitching in one of the most power friendly parks in the league. The changeup (35.2%, 1.8 RV/100, 58 PB grade) is still a great pitch, but his only above average one (47 grade fastball with everything else below 40) and all estimators more than two runs above his 2.58 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: -12.5
B30: 5.02
DFS Notes: Just below 70 with a light wind out to center is normal for this power friendly, run neutral environment. I hear you. You’re sick of failing against Tyler Anderson, but I can’t not tell you that the Brewers are my third favorite stack tonight behind the Mets and Dodgers. They have the second highest total on the board (4.88) with the Angels (3.62) fourth from the bottom. I can’t see this offense beating on Peralta, but I’ve said that about a lot of offenses that have recently. He’ll likely be under-owned and I project him as a better value on FanDuel for just $100 more and the third best overall arm on this slate. Politely declining Angels bats here. RHBs have a .324 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against Anderson since last season and LHBs about 25 points higher. Love Sanchez (146 wRC+, .364 ISO v LHP since last season) and Contreras (162, .225) here and it hurts you can only roster one on DK. Ortiz (100, .122) in the leadoff spot would be another great value play. Yelich (102, .124) and Adames (102, .173) rate well here too. This is a great running spot for Brewers too, while the Angels own the worst pen estimators in baseball last 30 days by more than half a run.
Update 6:45 EST: Closing the book on today. No Angels lineup. Three LHBs against Anderson's reverse split. Line movement towards Brewers.
Royals @ Athletics
Eight of nine quality starts for Cole Ragans, including the Dodgers last time out. The slider appears to be working as the weapon it was intended to be again, thus Ragans has increased its usage above 10% over the last month. With a 21.7 K-BB% and average contact profile, all non-FIP estimators (six home runs, 16 barrels) are within 0.12 runs of his 3.14 ERA. That’s precision. The weapon against the A’s should be the fastball (42.1%, 2 RV/100, 62 PB grade), the sixth worst offense (-0.56 wFA/C) against heaters.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.7 K%)
DEF: 13.5
B30: 4.39
The Luis Medina experience includes the following K:BB ratios over his first three starts: 6:2, 1:5, 3:1
That’s the gimmick. Live arm. Potentially all over the place. A 102 Stuff+ grade, but 94 Pitching+ and 5.22 Bot ERA. Early contact neutral estimators nearly match the 5.87 ERA with a 3.41 xERA (3.9% Barrels/BBE).
Opp wRC+: 98 (19.1 K%)
DEF: -11
B30: 4.51
DFS Notes: With temps below 60 and a near double digit win blowing out to center, the Royals are tied for the fourth highest run total (4.25) with the A’s (3.3) second from the bottom. First, the easy part. On a board full of studs, Cole Ragans is my top pitcher on the board and the guy I have on both sites in a strong, high upside spot. I have him projected just over seven strikeouts, top mark on the board. The volatility of Medina is not necessarily bad here for $5.5K. You could do it, but I’d much rather pay up for the comfort of Brown in a much better matchup. Not a lot of Ks in this KC lineup. Batters from either side are between a .320 and .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Medina since last year. Tough park and Witt (126 wRC+, .219 ISO v RHP since last year) is probably still fine, but more expensive than some potentially better choices tonight. The Oakland bullpen aside from Miller is attackable, but Medina/Shea are a tough combo to run on. Miller threw 10 pitches last night on several days of rest. Erceg (44) and Adams (42) three of last five.
Update 6:30 EST: Pair of LHBs (Bleday, Soderstrom) against Ragans' reverse split. Team totals have dropped a quarter run each (half run in total).
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
Add comment
Comments