Nearly made it all the way through on Monday night. That's what happens when lineups get in early and all pitchers are confirmed early for the next day. Just five more pitchers + DFS notes to get to on Tuesday morning/afternoon.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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Cardinals @ Marlins
Lance Lynn’s last three starts have lasted a total of 12.1 innings. With a 12.3 K-BB% and 8.7% Barrels/BBE, a 3.93 FIP is actually his lowest estimator this year. A 4.46 dERA his worst.
Opp wRC+: 86 (86 Home)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.07
Roddery Munoz posted his second quality start against the Mets (first against the Rockies). Up to a 14.4 K-BB%, it was the first he failed to allow a barrel in five starts. It was the first time he failed to allow two, but still had a 58.3% hard contact rate, bringing his season rate to exactly 50% with 17.2% Barrels/BBE.
Opp wRC+: 103 (89 Road)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.81
Update 3:35 EST: Arenado out. Carpenter in. Six LHBs against Munoz (> .400 wOBA, .xwOBA).
Reds @ Pirates
Five runs over Nick Lodolo’s last 18 innings, three quality starts and up to a 19.4 K-BB% on the season with his worst estimator a 3.70 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 103 (25.2 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.41
Eight runs over eight innings against the Dodgers and Cardinals, yet Bailey Falter’s 3.86 ERA is still well below estimators that all exceed four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 96 (10.6 K-BB%)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.13
Mariners @ Guardians
Bryce Miller has allowed 11.9% Barrels/BBE, not very noticeable because 12 of his 26 barrels have left the yard, nine of 13 on the road. With a 17.4 K-BB%, a 4.01 xERA is Miller’s only estimator more than half a run removed from his 3.48 ERA, though all are around a quarter run or more above it.
Opp wRC+: 103 (18.3 K%, 109 Home)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.80
Triston McKenzie has allowed 14 runs with eight home runs on nine barrels (14.8%). His 15.5 K-BB% over this span actually dwarfs his 6.0% prior to it. All estimators are more than half a run above his 4.10 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 99 (27.8 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 2.91
Even with the contact profile being potentially exposed on the road, Miller still more than a run better than McKenzie, according to my weighted estimators. With the Guardians only having a four point wRC+ edge v RHP and defenses a wash, I don’t think SEA should be the F5 dog here, though I’m avoiding tangling with the top pen in the game. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 3:45 EST: Ty France back. Eight LHBs for Cleveland. Only 0.48% gain SEA F5.
Padres @ Phillies
Over his last seven game starts, Michael King has a 23.5 K-BB% with a 21% hard contact rate.
Opp wRC+: 105 (109 Home)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.51
Not only did Aaron Nola get thumped by the Red Sox (eight runs), but is now sitting on just a 15.3 K-BB% on the season. He’s in the unfamiliar predicament of having all estimators exceed his 3.48 ERA, but none by more than half a run. Blame the park for 12 of his 17 barrels leaving the yard, resulting in a 3.97 FIP. Mentioned yesterday was the fact that the Padres are the worst offense in baseball against sinkers (-1.15 wSI/C) and Nola has a pretty good one (20.9%, 1.2 RV/100, 63 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 121 (18.5 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 2.91
I like San Diego's F5 price (+132), but the Phillies are tied with the Guardians for best pen estimators in baseball L30 days.
Update 4:20 EST: Low 80's, 10 mph wind out to CF. Hitter friendly Moscoso behind the plate to cap it all off. The Padres reward my faith in them by sitting Tatis and Kim tonight. Still a massive 6.9% gain on F5. Although, I expect that to climb a bit north before first pitch.
Diamondbacks @ Nationals
Slade Cecconi has strong pitch modeling numbers, including 64 grade four-seamer (55.4%, -1.6 RV/100), a pitch the Nationals are 11th worst in the league against (-0.24 wFA/C), but a 4.41 xERA is his only estimator below four and a half and that’s with 11.2% Barrels/BBE.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 16.5
B30: 4.69
Jake Irvin has allowed five runs over his last 30.1 innings, five quality starts, and has non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.57 xFIP to a 3.79 dERA and xERA, mostly due to his ability to throw strikes (4.6 BB%).
Opp wRC+: 100 (157 L7 days)
DEF: -15
B30: 3.80
Orioles @ Yankees
Since returning to the rotation, Albert Suarez has allowed just three runs over 19.1 innings with a 10 K-BB% and 35.7% hard contact rate. Ignoring his 2.79 FIP this season with just one of seven barrels leaving the yard, he still has a 3.41 xERA, which is more than three-quarters of a run above contact neutral estimators. Pitch modeling (97 Pitching+, 4.34 Bot ERA) doesn’t suggest he’s any better than that either.
Opp wRC+: 126 (125 Home, 110 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.53
Nestor Cortes has been much better at home this year, but that’s because he’s faced some of the worst offenses in baseball at home. The Dodgers got to him for four runs in his last home start. The one thing that’s difficult to understand is his 3.24 xERA. It’s more than one-third of a run below his ERA and more than half a run below any other estimator, including a 3.76 FIP. It doesn’t make sense with a 43.7% hard contact. Regardless, his average estimator is only slightly better than Suarez’s, while his pitch modeling is a bit healthier (102 Pitching+, 3.52 Bot ERA). We should note that Cortes has a 50 point split with LHBs below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA since last year and RHBs at .322 and .299.
Opp wRC+: 124 (115 Road, L7 days)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 4.10
This may be the one American League team the Yankees don’t have a tremendous offensive edge against and the Orioles have a deeper lineup too. Give the Yankees smaller edges in starting pitching and defense, but the O’s also have a half run bullpen edge last 30 days. Think +130 is a bit high. This is going to be a tough team for Cortes to put down like he has some weaker ones.
DFS Notes: A 10 game Tuesday slate includes only a pair of domes, some rain possibilities and lots of crazy weather and winds. It’s either near 90 or below 70 just above everywhere. The Dodgers lap the field by nearly a run and a half with the Braves and Astros right around five implied runs. Six other teams reach four and a half run team totals with seven more below four runs. Tonight’s top pitchers are more ground ball than strikeout heavy and considering weather conditions, it’s tough to pick out a top guy overall. It’s tough to build lineups. I imagine my first single entry drafts won’t be my final lineups tonight.
We start with a pair of powerhouse offenses in the Bronx with the only game we find temps in the low 80s with a double digit wind blowing out toward the right field pole. The Yankees are fourth on the board with a 4.77 team run total and the Orioles half a run lower at 4.23. No interest in pitching in this game, though I would probably go under-weight on Yankees in multi-entry. Judge (187 wRC+, .356 ISO v RHP since last season) and Soto (174, .279) are carrying this offense. Verdugo (115) and Torres (107) are the only other batters in the projected lineup exceeding a 95 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Nobody except Judge and Soto exceed a 120 wRC+ either against RHP or at home since last year. Batters from either side are below a .305 wOBA and xwOBA against Suarez since last season. On the other hand, RHBs have a .322 wOBA and .299 xwOBA against Cortes. That’s near league average. I like Mountcastle (167, .277) a lot here, along with Rutschman (177, .211), Westburg (100, .162) and Santander (134, .206) and would likely go over-weight on Orioles. I think Cortes is in for a rough time tonight.
Update 4:55 EST: With Rizzo out, the Yankees have a box of Uncle Ben's rice playing first. 1.98% gain on BAL.
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Tanner Houck only had a six inning, three run quality start against the Phillies at Fenway. He’s failed to complete six innings only twice this season and each time by a single out and it was only the fourth time all year he’d allowed even three earned runs in a game with a high of four. He’s pitching deep into games with a 20.4 K-BB% and 4.0% Barrels/BBE and a 3.24 xERA his only estimator above three. In regards to this particular matchup, the slider (42%, 2.3 RV/100, 64 PB grade) stands out against the predominantly right-handed Blue Jays, who are eighth worst in the league against such pitches this year (-0.46 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.2 K%)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.40
Nine of the 24 Brewers to face Chris Bassitt over five innings reached base and he stranded every single one. Four of them were walks. With a 12.6 K-BB%, all non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his ERA, while he could have trouble in this matchup in two instances. First, LHBs have a .362 wOBA and .349 xwOBA against him since last season. Second, Bassitt’s second most thrown pitch is the cutter (18.8%, 1.3 RV/100, 40 PB grade). The Red Sox are one of just 12 offenses with a positive run value against cutters (0.1 wFC/C).
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 15.5
B30: 4.35
As written above, this goes beyond just pitcher estimators, but I think Boston has several edges in this game and this is just a good matchup for one pitcher, while being a poor matchup for the other. I have F5 only a slightly better value than full game, though it’s really a coin flip, as the Red Sox have a sizeable pen edge too.
DFS Notes: The roof has been open for about a week straight, which increases the run factor on average from 96 to 102. Both teams at 3.75 implied runs are tied for the second lowest totals on the board. I generally love Tanner Houck, or at least what he’s doing this year, but feel him to be sufficiently priced at this time against a contact prone offense. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board by a pretty large margin and certainly still one of the top arms, but we may be able to get similar production for much less tonight. I don’t hate Bassitt for less than $9K only due to the number of strikeouts in the Boston lineup. However, as mentioned above, LHBs have clouted him. Duran (133 wRC+, .219 ISO v RHP since last season), Hamilton (103, .156) and Devers (137, .259) stand out here. Yoshida is the only man in the projected lineup below a 116 wRC+ L30 days and the Toronto pen has the sixth worst estimators over the last 30 days behind Bassitt. No interest in Toronto bats.
Update 5:35 EST: Weather in the area could keep the roof closed (not official yet) w/ slightly pitcher friendly umpire (Ortiz). Refsnyder & McGuire in for Hamilton & Wong keeps the L/R dynamic intact. Lots of turnover in the TOR LU. Jansen, Bichette out.
Tigers @ Braves
Casey Mize has a career high 48.9 GB% with good control (6.6 BB%), but just a 15% strikeout rate and 41.7% hard contact rate, allowing 8.1% Barrels/BBE, despite the ground balls. With just six of 18 barrels leaving the yard, all non-FIP estimators are within one-quarter of a run of his 4.43 ERA, while pitch modeling remains more optimistic. Mize owns 108 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+ marks with a 57 grade fastball (PitchingBot), that he throws 40.7% of the time. A large portion of Atlanta’s issues this year stem from their inability to hit the fastball (-0.12 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.02
Spencer Schwellenbach has struck out 12 of 68 major league batters with five walks and a 44% hard contact rate, but just a single barrel. The 10.2 K-BB% with just 2.0% Barrels/BBE projects a 3.84 xERA that’s more than half a run below other estimators ranging from a 4.43 FIP to a 4.68 dERA. That’s a pretty clear picture for such a small sample. Pitch modeling is also more optimistic here too with a 105 Pitching+ grade and 3.54 Bot ERA. Gotta remember that this is a kid (24 years-old) who basically skipped the upper minors entirely, so the Braves certainly had to see something there.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.88
The numbers tell me Tigers, but I just don’t feel confident enough in who Schwellenbach is to pull the trigger after just three starts. Both of these pitchers have better pitch modeling than results so far.
DFS Notes: Mid-80s with a wind blowing in from left around 10 mph. The Braves (5.01) are only behind the Dodgers, but far behind the Dodgers on this board with the Tigers (3.99) much closer to the bottom. Maybe the rookie is fine here in an SP2 spot for $7K against a below average offense. It’s a reasonable risk to take. Mize may even be borderline for $6K on DK. The Braves aren’t what they were. RHBs have a .390 wOBA and .380 xwOBA against Schwellenbach so far. Vierling (106 wRC+, .173 ISO v RHP since last season) is the most competent against same-handed pitching. LHBs have a .293 wOBA, but .333 xwOBA against Mize, but RHBs are at .365 and .320. Arcia is the only projected Brave below a .167 ISO v RHP since last season, Duvall the only other batter below a 100 wRC+ too. Kelenic (110, .167) would be one of my favorite values on the board out of the leadoff spot. He’s one of the few Braves hitting the ball well over the last month (130 wRC+).
Update 4:35 EST: Mize has 2 or fewer Ks in 6 of 13. A 4.0 SwStr% L4 starts. Has only exceeded 22 BF one of last six starts. Under 3.5 Ks (+130).
Rays @ Twins
Aaron Civale has struck out 14 of his last 48 batters with a pair of walks, but has really been done in this year by 14 of 16 barrels leaving the park. Even then, the .310 BABIP and 70 LOB% have his 5.20 ERA above a 4.61 FIP, which is more than half a run above all other estimators itself. A 17.2 K-BB% and rather average contact profile suggest there’s still a decent pitcher in there somewhere and one who should throw his curveball (17.4%, -0.1 RV/100, 61 PB grade) at the Twins (-0.18 wCU/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 105 (117 Home, 185 L7 days)
DEF: 1
B30: 4.04
Throw out a terrible start against the Yankees and Pablo Lopez has pitched well in two of his last three starts, but why can’t you throw out those starts against Houston and Colorado too? Because they all count and that’s fine because Lopez still has a 21 K-BB%, while 14 of his 17 barrels have left the yard too. He has an even worse 65% strand rate though with a 3.35 xFIP his worst non-FIP estimator next to a 5.33 ERA. Pitch modeling is not as strong for him this year, but PitchingBot grades his changeup, slider and fastball all above all between 55 and 57, while the Rays are below average against all three pitches.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.89
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a near 15 mph wind out towards the left-field pole. The Twins (4.73) are upper half of the board with the Rays (3.77) fourth from the bottom. Pablo Lopez would be my top pitcher on the board if we weren’t concerned with PPD potential here. Keep an eye out for updates. No interest in Rays bats or Civale. With batters from either side between a .298 and .312 wOBA and xwOBA against Civale since last year, Lewis (177 wRC+, .325 ISO v RHP since last season, 252 wRC+ L30 days) is one of the top bats on the board, while I like the value in a trio of LHBs surrounding him in the upper half of the lineup, Castro (117, .172, 139), Larnach (114, .201, 105) and Kepler (123, .215, 80), should the weather cooperate. All exceed a 125 wRC+ at home since last year as well.
Update 4:45 EST: A couple of degrees cooler with a couple mph increased wind in the latest forecast, but no change to rain potential. Line movement towards Twins.
Giants @ Cubs
This matchup would have sounded more interesting if the Cubs were on the road. Steele Webb, my old band name. Ironic that both these pitchers also have reverse platoon splits, which opposing teams refuse to take advantage of. Logan Webb has thrown at least six innings in seven straight starts, the Yankees the only team to exceed three runs against him over this span. He has a 22.2 K-BB% over his last five, increasing his season rate to 15.4% with a 56.3 GB%, which is very important because 52.3% of his contact has reached a 95 mph exit velocity. This produces a 4.66 xERA that’s at least a run and a third above all other estimators, which are within one-third of a run of his 3.02 ERA. Webb has very strong pitch modeling numbers, including a 3.29 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.50
Kudos to pitch modeling for suggesting patience with Justin Steele as he struggled coming back from the injured list. His 65 slider and fastball grades from PitchingBot never wavered, leading to a 2.35 Bot ERA. The Giants are below average against both pitches, by the way. The performance finally seems to have caught up. With a 16.3 K-BB% and just 4.8% Barrels/BBE, a 3.12 xERA is in line with a 3.22 ERA, while additional estimators are about half a run higher. Seven of Steele’s 25 runs have been unearned. The Chicago defense has severely underperformed this year.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: -8
B30: 3.95
DFS Notes: With temps in the upper 80s and a near 20 mph wind out to left, I call this the slate disruptor. A lot of lineup, mine likely included, may live and die with what happens here. Normally, a pair strong pitchers, conditions dictate a 4.75 run total for each offense here, so the lean is towards offense. We mentioned each pitcher’s reverse split above. Busch, Morel, Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .180 ISO v RHP since last season. Only Busch, Happ and Suzuki exceed a 95 wRC+ over the last 30 days (all 130+ too). Happ would be my favorite Cubs bat (3-run bomb last night), should Tauchman (114, .130) be out after leaving last night’s game. Let’s see who’s in the leadoff spot if he’s out too. The Giants are unlikely to employ more than one LHB and with the wind blasting out to left, that might not be a bad choice despite Steele’s reverse split (RHBs .284 wOBA and xwOBA since last season). Ramos and Soler exceed a 160 wRC+ and .330 ISO against southpaws since last season, while Chapman (158, .218) torches them as well. Slater (111, .110) and Ramos exceed a 200 wRC+ L30 days, but we have pinch hit risk with a lack of power from the former. Bailey (114, .157), who hit a 3-run bomb to win it, is likely a top catcher option tonight. The Giants can also run on the Steele/Amaya combo, while the Chicago pen has the seventh worst estimators in the league last 30 days too. Neris, Leiter and Wesneski all threw 25 or more pitches last night, while Smyle threw 38 on Sunday. Doval has thrown 40 the last two days. My hope is that other players may not want to oppose these pitchers, no matter the weather.
Update 5:45 EST: Hitter friendly Tichenor behind the plate adds to offensive environment. Bailey out. Flores bats second. Tauchman & Morel out. Horener & Busch bat first and second.
Mets @ Rangers
Luis Severino has revitalized his career with one pitch: the sinker (23.7%, 2.5 RV/100, 60 PB grade). It’s allowed him to generate a 52.3 GB% and allow just 4.4% Barrels/BBE with estimators ranging from a 3.61 xERA to a 4.40 SIERA with a 9.3 K-BB%. Severino has even faced at least 24 batters in nine of his last 10 starts, so there’s been consistency as well. There’s just one problem. The 3.12 ERA is the result of a .251 BABIP and six unearned runs. Great news for him as that the Rangers, in addition to struggling overall this year, don’t hit sinkers well (-0.91 wSI/C is third worst).
Opp wRC+: 93 (19.8 K%, 94 Home)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.68
If Severino’s results are a bit questionable, Michael Lorenzen’s 2.86 ERA is downright fraudulent. With a 6.9 K-BB% and none of the positive contact quality Severino possesses this year, all estimators are at least one and three-quarters runs worse. All above four and a half. A .232 BABIP and 85.8 LOB% are the primary culprits. Pitch modeling confirms. With a 4.80 Bot ERA, PB doesn’t merit any of Lorenzen’s offerings as above average and that’s saying a lot because he’s thrown seven different pitches this year.
Opp wRC+: 103 (119 Road)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.78
As mentioned above, Severino’s results may be questionable, but he’s still been far better than Lorenzen. The Mets have also had the much better offense. Mets F5 (-110).
DFS Notes: Expect the roof to remain closed tonight, which creates a 104 run factor (Statcast). Both teams are at 4.25 implied runs and both pitchers are overvalued. The Rangers are scuffling and Severino at least keeps the ball on the ground now. Seager (171 wRC+, .305 ISO v RHP since last season) and Smith (103, .141) are the only projected Rangers above a 96 wRC+ over the last 30 days and both are above 150 (Seager above 200). Smith may be injured. Seager is the top SS on the board, but I’d view him as more of a one-off, if you can even afford him here. The Mets have been red hot. I’d go overweight on them. RHBs have a .350 wOBA and .357 xwOBA against Lorenzen since last season with LHBs at .267, .308. McNeil and the just returned Alvarez are the only two projected bats below a 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days. A top four stack (Lindor through Alonso) would include four bats exceeding a 100 wRC+ and .175 ISO v RHP since last season with Lindor the only one below 120 and .200.
Update 5 EST: Roof closed. Jankowski in for Smith. Heim back, Smith back too. 2.17% gain on NYM F5.
Astros @ White Sox
Framber Valdez threw a complete game with eight strikeouts against the Angels and then followed that up with four innings of five run ball and a single strikeout against the Giants. Still generating a 61.1% ground ball rate, that’s actually below his career average, a 6.9 BB% is the best of any season where he’s made more than 10 starts. However, an 18.9 K-BB% is also a career worst, while he’s allowing 5.5% Barrels/BBE, despite a 47.7% hard contact rate. Estimators range from a 3.46 xFIP to a 4.04 ERA. Valdez’s sinker (51.4%) and curveball (26.4%) are barely above average by PitchingBot grades. Valdez hasn’t been a bad pitcher this year, but more solid than great.
Opp wRC+: 85
DEF: 1
B30: 4.00
Jonathan Cannon has struck out 24 of 101 batters with just five walks (18.8 K-BB%) with six barrels (8.3%), three of them leaving the yard. The 23 year-old had just a 10.1 K-BB% over 37.2 AAA innings and 10.7 K-BB% over 48.1 AA innings. He’s starting to get to the point where we may have to buy into his major league numbers though. You can’t fake an 11.6 SwStr% over 100 batters. One of those offenses was Seattle, but Minnesota, Boston and Kansas City aren’t awful. Estimators range from a 3.19 xFIP to a 4.15 xERA with a 47.2% hard contact rate, while pitch modeling doesn’t disagree there’s a pitcher in there (100 Pitching+, 3.92 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 111 (19 K%)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 3.95
Not fully buying into Cannon’s major league success, this is still a down year for Valdez, while the White Sox have the same bullpen estimators as the Astros over the last 30 days. This game is priced as if Valdez is still throwing like an All-Star this year (+180 White Sox).
DFS Notes: Near 90 degrees, but a near 20 mph wind blowing in from the right field pole. The White Sox hold up the bottom of the board (3.51) with the Astros (4.99), essentially tied with the Braves behind the Dodgers. This may sound like a contradiction, but if Lopez can’t be rostered (PPD risk), Framber might be my top pitcher value among the higher priced arms tonight. It’s not that I don’t hink he can shut down the White Sox. He certainly can. I just think Cannon may be able to hold serve and I don’t hate him in GPPs for $6.2K either. RHBs do have a .283 wOBA, but .321 xwOBA against Framber since last season. Pham, Robert and Sosa all are above a 115 wRC+ and .220 ISO v LHP since last season. Framber can be run on too. LHBs have a .464 wOBA and .386 xwOBA against Cannon in a small sample with RHBs below .260. With Tucker IL’d, Alvarez (167, .295) is the only left-handed Houston bat above a 70 wRC+ against RHP since last year. His 203 wRC+ over the last 30 days also leads the projected lineup by more than 60 points.
Update 5:50 EST: Benintendi only CWS LHB. Gift from the Astros. Caratini in for Alvarez. 4.79% gain on CWS. Considered playing the under for HOU (5.5), but already have enough exposure with the White Sox. Don't know that I trust Cannon enough for much more.
Dodgers @ Rockies
The only positives we can pull from Walker Buehler’s return from Tommy John surgery so far are a 6.1% walk rate and 6.5% Barrels/BBE. He’s allowed eight home runs, but just seven barrels. However, a 19.7 K% and 7.6 SwStr% produce non-FIP estimators ranging from 3.90 xFIP to a 4.56 xERA aren’t too far below his 4.64 ERA. Pitch modeling includes a 102 Pitching+ score and 3.73 Bot ERA with PitchingBot grading only his changeup below average, so he may not be so far away. That’s from being competent, not a Cy Young contender again.
Opp wRC+: 80 (25.7 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.96
Austin Gomber has allowed 15 runs over his last 11 innings with three home runs and five barrels (11.1%). His 5.2 K-BB% over this span drops his season rate to 9.2%. With 9.9% Barrels/BBE, all estimators are above his 4.26 ERA with batters from either side of the plate exceeding a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Surprisingly, PitchingBot serves up only one below average grade on Gomber’s offerings, but it happens to be his fastball (40.7%, -0.4 RV/100, 44 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 129 (19 K%) (Incl. Mon stats rest of the way)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.61
DFS Notes: Below 70 with a near double digit wind in from right does not deter the Dodgers from having a 6.37 implied run total against Gomber. Wrigley could play more hitter friendly tonight. Unfortunately, Buehler has given us no indication that he’s worthy of your lineup, while the Rockies have a 4.63 team total. Don’t hate, Blackmon (94 wRC+, .160 ISO v RHP since last season), Jones (118, .228) and McMahon (103, .211). Blackmon has a 132 wRC+ L30 days, Jones 190 since returning. LHBs have a .434 wOBA and .346 xwOBA against Buehler so far. LHBs at .411, .396 against Gomber since last season with RHBs above .340 is more likely the reason the Dodgers have such a run total than the environment tonight. Kike, Vargas and Taylor the only three projected Dodgers below a 110 wRC+ against southpaws since last year. Kike, Pages and Rojas the only three below a .220 ISO. Kike, Pages, Taylor the only three below a 130 wRC+ L30 days. Gomber/Stallings can be run on and the Rockies have one of the worst pens in the majors too. That said, Freeman (149, .224) is the only Dodger I found room for in my single-entry lineups. The better Dodger bats aren’t particularly great bargains.
Brewers @ Angels
Tobias Myers has allowed a single run or less in five of his eight starts, but a total of 13 over 12.1 innings over his other three. A 13.5 K-BB% is perfectly league average and while he’s allowed a few too many barrels (9.7%), that comes with a perfectly average 37.2% hard contact rate too. Eight of 11 barrels have left they park, but non-FIP estimators ranging from a 4.07 dERA to a 4.59 xERA, exceed a 3.76 ERA due to a .238 BABIP and 84.2 LOB%. Myers has below average 93 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.70
A 7.0 K-BB% with 8.2% Barrels/BBE and a 43.3% hard hit rate matches Griffin Canning’s non-FIP estimators all within half a run of his 4.76 ERA. In fact, they all exceed that ERA. Including the FIP with 13 of 20 barrels turning into home runs. Canning has an above average changeup (26.2%, 2.5 RV/100, 54 PB grade), but a fastball (32.3%) grade below 30 via PitchingBot (5.14 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: -12.5
B30: 5.15
DFS Notes: Temps near 70 with a near double digit wind out to left-center. Run neutral, power friendly for this park. The Brewers are a 4.56 implied runs and could be a forgotten offense on this slate. The Angels (3.94) are closer to the bottom of the board. With 14 innings over his last two starts, Myers has exceeded five innings for the first two times in his career. That, and a $6.5K price tag on DK might work on this slate. Canning is so cheap ($5.5K) that you almost have to consider it. (I didn’t say roster, I said consider.) RHBs have a .333 wOBA and .375 xwOBA against Myers so far with LHBs below .300. O’Hoppe (119 wRC+, .219 ISO) is the only competent Angel against same-handed pitching since last season. Batters from either side are between a .319 wOBA and .330 xwOBA against Canning since last season and I may like Milwaukee stacks more than most on this slate. Hoskins (119, .220), Oritz (138, .189), Contreras (116, .144) and Adames (101, .197) can all do damage against same-handed pitching, while Yelich (140, .187) has nearly returned to his MVP ways (140 wRC+ L30 days). The Angels have the worst bullpen estimators in baseball by half a run over the last 30 days. Estevez (42), Garcia (37) and Moore (37) have all been heavily worked the last three days as well.
Royals @ Athletics
Alec Marsh one-hit the Yankees over seven innings, striking out seven last time out, while his Statcast game log features another effort with improved command, staying away from the middle of the plate and peppering the edges. Marsh has allowed only a pair of his 18 barrels (9.5%) over his last two starts, while improving his K-BB to 15.5%. All estimators remain above his 3.63 ERA, but only a 4.44 xERA by more than half a run and that too, could improve, should his improved command remain.
Opp wRC+: 93 (26.8 K%)
DEF: 15
B30: 4.53
Like his counterpart in this affair, Hogan Harris allowed too many barrels (10.3%), but with a league average 13.9 K-BB%. Command has improved enough to register a 101 Pitching+ score and stunning 3.00 Bot ERA with every pitch grading above 50 via PitchingBot, including a 65 grade fastball (60.4%, 0.9 RV/100), which should find some success against the Royals (-0.4 wFA/C is 23rd in the league).
Opp wRC+: 103 (17.7 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.60
DFS Notes: Barely 60 degrees, but a near double digit wind out to center. The Royals (4.21) are bottom half of the board with the A’s (3.79) even lower. Marsh is my preferred SP2 ($7.6K) and I might even consider using him on FD for less than $9K. Let’s see how far he can take this. Six of nine projected A’s exceed a 27.5 K% against RHP since last season. If not buying into his more recent work, batters from either side are still between .323 and .357 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, which may make Rooker (130 wRC+, .243 ISO v RHP since last season) the most interesting bat. He’s one of four projected A’s (Soderstrom, Bleday, Andujar) even above a 75 wRC+ L30 days (all four above 110). Kansas City also has bottom five bullpen estimators L30 days behind Marsh. On the other end, Harris is a bit more expensive than other low priced rookie arms tonight and in a tougher spot against a lineup that doesn’t swing and miss much. Another reverse split with LHBs at a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him career, but RHBs still a healthy .327 wOBA and .335 xwOBA, while the A’s also have bottom five pen estimators behind him, though Miller hasn’t pitched the last three days. Witt (131, .223) is never a bad choice and has a 193 wRC+ L30 days, but Blanco (126, .227) and Velazquez (98, .198) are the only other projected Royals above a .170 ISO against LHP since last season.
Update 6:10 EST: Fermin in for Blanco. Schuemann bats leadoff with Toro out.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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