A bit of house keeping to start. This week could be a bit hectic due to some family medical appointments. I actually have something every Wednesday and/or Thursday for the rest of the rest of the month.
I also want to call attention to an excellent Fangraphs article from last week that illustrated the inefficiencies of relying on a metric such as Stuff+ without at least adding location and even that doesn't get all the way there because it doesn't factor in tunneling. Stuff+ or raw PitchingBot grades (which I never use) are probably best utilized for new pitchers or new pitches if we're trying to discover their potential outcomes when they are located and tunneled most optimially.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Reds @ Pirates
Five long relief outings, 90 pitches last time out for Carson Spiers. A 13.8 K-BB%, 33.9 GB%, three barrels and just a 30.5% hard contact rate, the 26 year-old has a 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) and was 26th in the organization in the Fangraphs Reds list in April. A 17.6 K-BB% over 46.2 AAA innings this season, Spiers projects as more of a swing man type. He’s thrown five pitches at least 12% of the time with PitchingBot really liking the sinker (19%, 3.7 RV/100, 68 grade) and sweeper (23.4%, -3 RV/100, 62). He has an 89 Stuff+ grade, which improves to a 102 Pitching+ and 3.74 Bot ERA over 19.1 innings.
Opp wRC+: 81 (25 K%)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.51
A 30.8 K-BB% with four home runs on just four barrels against Paul Skenes. The only minor flaw being a 40.3% hard hit rate, but less than 65% of the batters are making contact, that’s not so much of an issue and not even that far below average. Skenes already has a 112 Pitching+ mark that matches his 112 Stuff+ with every pitch he’s thrown more than 20 times receiving a PitchingBot grade above 60. The one the Reds struggled with most is the slider (17.9%, -2.4 RV/100, 63 PB grade). They are the third worst offense against sliders (-0.74 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 88 (26.4 K%)
DEF: -15.5
B30: 4.26
DFS Notes: A nine game slate starts a half hour early and includes three domes, two almost always closed. Five of the six outdoor spots include temperatures near 90, several with a strong wind blowing out as well. The result is that nearly one-third of the board reaches five implied runs tonight with just five below four.
We start with temps near 90, but perhaps the least wind effected open air game tonight. The Reds are fourth from the bottom (3.59) with the Pirates (4.91) just below five runs. Paul Skenes is my top pitcher on the board and I’m rostering him on both sites. The Pirates are letting him go deeper than expected, at least six innings in four of last five starts and above 90 pitches in all five, hitting 100 twice. The projected Cincinnati lineup only has four above a 22 K% v RHP since last year, but just one below 20%. Maybe Spiers is a fine SP2 for $6.6K on DK against a bad offense. That’s not the direction I went in though. I really don’t know enough about him to feel more strongly either way. What we do have, in a small sample, is LHBs owning a .352 wOBA and .327 xwOBA against him so far and Oneil Cruz (130 wRC+, .205 ISO v RHP since last season) is my DK SS. Reynolds (118, .208) plays here too. Suwinski (110, .233) would need to move up in the order. McCutchen (113, .145) is fine by virtue of the leadoff spot for a top offense.
Padres @ Phillies
Better pitch modeling than results for Randy Vasquez through eight starts. A 108 Stuff+ mark drops to a 102 Pitching+ with a 3.73 Bot ERA without a single pitch grade (he throws six of them) below 49. However, he’s allowed three runs in fewer than seven innings in both quality starts, while a 15.4 K%, 45.7 Z-O-Swing% and 9.7% Barrels/BBE translate into a 5.93 xERA that’s exactly a run worse than Vasquez’s 4.93 ERA. The good news is that he rarely walks anyone (4.1%) and has generated more popups (nine) than home runs (eight). Contact neutral estimators run about a half run better than actual results.
Opp wRC+: 106 (20.6 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.35
Cristopher Sanchez allowed four earned runs in a game for only the second time this year (and never more) in Boston last time out. The 12.6 K-BB% and 90.7 Z-Contact% are worse than average, but the contact profile is elite (59.5 GB%, 6.0% Barrels/BBE). Just one of those 13 barrels has left the park all year, an impressive feat, considering the ball park. Non-FIP estimators range from a 3.13 xFIP to a 3.82 xERA with pitch modeling chipping in a 103 Pitching+ mark and 3.30 Bot ERA. The sinker (47.8%, -0.6 RV/100, 58 PB grade) is what the Padres have to worry about. They are the worst offense in the majors against sinkers (-1.18 wSI/C) and just struggled against a sinker heavy Mets rotation this weekend.
Opp wRC+: 96 (18.1 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.06
DFS Notes: Lower 80s, but a double digit wind out to center has the Padres at 4.09 implied runs, but the Phillies second from the top at 5.41. The tough environment along with the Padres unwillingness to strike out, kills Sanchez’s upside for me. Plenty of ground balls and likely decent run prevention against a team that hates sinkers, but that doesn’t really drive daily fantasy value. Vasquez costs just $5.5K on DK, but I don’t think this is the spot to punt that SP2. LHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him and as many left-handed Phillies as you can jam in should be worth it. RHBs (.303, .320) are fine here too. I went the cheaper route with left-handed Phillies, Stott (101 wRC+, .150 ISO v RHP since last season), Marsh (136, .187) and Dahl (112, .344), the latter only costing $3K DK/$2.4K FD. I’ll explain why a bit later. RHBs have a .320 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against Sanchez since last season too. Tatis (135. .171), Machado (127, .190) and Profar (132, .174) play here too. Estrada threw 27 pitches on Sunday.
Update 4:50 EST: Turner back. Line movement towards Phils.
Cardinals @ Marlins
Sonny Gray rebounded from really just a weird fifth inning against the Rockies to strike out nine Pirates over seven four hit innings with a single run and walk. Aside from a 33 K% that’s beginning to outpaces his 12.5 SwStr%, Gray has tremendous pitch modeling numbers to go along with estimators that are all within half a run of his 3.01 ERA without extending higher than a 3.12 xERA. He has a trio of pitches graded 63 or higher (four-seam, sinker, sweeper) that the Marlins are no better than sixth worst in the league against to complement 106 Stuff+ and Pitching+ scores.
Opp wRC+: 87 (87 Home)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.96
Braxton Garrett has allowed at least five runs in four of his six starts and only two of them have been unearned. He’s recorded just one sixth inning out outside his shutout in Arizona. Despite a 2.9 BB% and 52.5 GB%, he’s allowed 8% Barrels/BBE with a 49% hard contact rate with a 93.7 Z-Contact% the primary driver of a below average 20.3 K%. The walk rate and ground balls keep most his estimators below four with the exception of a 4.26 xERA, but Garrett will have to improve the quality of his contact if he wants to regress the .323 BABIP and then have the 54.7 LOB% work itself out. Pitch modeling suggests he could have trouble doing so with an array of below average pitches (PitchingBot) and a 95 Pitching+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 78 (19.8 K%)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 3.85
DFS Notes: Domed, neutral run environment could be the Seattle of this slate. The Cardinals are at 4.07 implied runs with the Marlins second from the bottom (3.43). I don’t trust Garrett here, while Sonny Gray is my third best pitcher on the board, though the top three are very close. He’s also the most expensive arm on the slate and I like his value slightly more for only $500 more on FD. The Cardinals really don’t hit LHP well though, so I’m not all that interested in St Louis bats on this particular slate either. Helsley (82) has been worked very heavily over the last six days and Fernandez (45) three of the last four.
Update 5 EST: Burleson and Gorman out. Fermin bats second.
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
The Phillies marked only the second time in six starts that Nick Pivetta struck out fewer than eight batters. The other was Milwaukee. He’s now walked 11 of his 87 batters too, but perhaps the Blue Jays will be more accommodating to his fastball (48.6%, 0.3 RV/100, 68 PB grade)/sweeper (22.2%, 0.4 RV/100, 55 PB grade), as they are bottom third of the league against both pitches (-0.62 wFA/C, -0.42 wSL/C) and offer a predominance of right-handed batters.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.59
Yusei Kikuchi has bounced back solidly from a couple of rough outings in Detroit and against Pittsburgh with 11 innings of one run ball with 11 strikeouts against the Orioles and in Milwaukee. While he averaged a 94.6 mph heater in the previous two starts (95.6 mph on the year), he was up to 96.1 mph in the most recent starts. He has a 2.4 mph gap between single game fastball velocities this season. Three of his four bad starts were below the 95.5 mph range with only the Dodgers roughing him up a bit throwing harder than that. On the season, his 17.7 K-BB%, even with 8.8% Barrels/BBE and a 43.2% hard contact rate, registers estimators all within one-third of a run of his 3.26 ERA. While not quite matching Pivetta’s eye popping pitch modeling numbers, Kikuchi has a pretty impressive 110 Stuff+ (106 Pitching+) mark and array of strong PitchingBot individual pitch grades as well. The only problem is that the Red Sox are not bottom half of the league against any pitch, though they do have a slightly negative run value against a few.
Opp wRC+: 99 (28.8 K%)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 4.21
What we don’t see above is Boston’s 113 wRC+ on the road and Toronto’s 95 mark at home. In addition to Pivetta owning slightly better estimators, along with a pen edge for Boston, I’m favoring the Red Sox (+108) and the Under (8 -106). It doesn’t hurt the latter that Toronto has one of the best defenses in the league too. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: Another domed stadium where the roof could open and perhaps push Gray past Kikuchi, but for now, he’s my number two pitcher on this board and I was able to submit a DK lineup with both he and Skenes. Strikeouts in the opposing lineup pushes him past Pivetta in terms of daily fantasy value. Only one projected Boston bat below a 23.1 K% against LHP since last year. On the other side, the Blue Jays may not hit it hard, but they do hit it often. Only three above a 19.4 K% v RHP since last season among those projected. Both teams are below four runs here.
Update 5:10 EST: Schneider leads off, Horwitz sits. Just 2 LHBs against Pivetta. Clement in for Bichette, but Clement strikes out less. No movement on BOS (0.46% gain). Gained half a run on the total. No confirmation on roof, but one Twitter mention of it being open, as it has the last few days.
Tigers @ Braves
Eighteen runs (17 earned) over Reese Olson’s last 14.2 innings. His 12.5 season K-BB% is actually up a point over this span, but with fewer ground balls (45.5%) and a 50% hard hit rate. Even with that K-BB% and 45.8% hard contact rate on the season, none of Olson’s estimators reach four due to his 52.3 GB% and only allowing 5.1% Barrels/BBE. There is some risk in his profile that isn’t absolved by pitch modeling. Olson has just one above average PItchingBot grade (slider 26.5%, 52 grade), resulting in a 4.81 Bot ERA to pair with 93 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.95
Max Fried has allowed at least three runs in fewer than six innings in six of his 13 starts, but also has six quality starts of seven innings or more with two earned runs or fewer. The dividing point seems to be good and bad offenses for the most part. The Tigers below to the latter group, so good Fried here? It amazingly all shakes down to estimators all within one-fifth of a run of Fried’s 3.20 ERA (14.7 K-BB%, 60.7 GB%, 5.1% Barrels/BBE, 30.7% hard contact). Pitch modeling for Fried is right around average though (3.91 Bot ERA, 97 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 84 (21 K%, 134 L7 days)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.89
This line appears to more based on reputation than what each team is doing this year, especially recently. Still giving Fried credit for better estimators than Olson by more than half a run, there’s just not enough separation anywhere else for them to be monster favorites.
Update 5:15 EST: Pitcher friendly Cuzzi behind the plate. No line movement at all on DET.
Giants @ Cubs
Jordan Hicks suffered from flu like symptoms in his last start, doing his club little good with three runs over 4.2 innings before being lifted. A league average 13.4 K-BB% and 54.2 GB% keeps estimators running from a 3.60 dERA to a 3.85 SIERA. We’ve known forever that Hicks has a great arm, but his 110 Stuff+ grade works down to a 101 Pitching+ (3.81 Bot ER), which certainly isn’t poor. All three pitches receive PitchingBot grades above 50.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.49
Finally hit my K prop under on Javier Assad last week, when he struck out just four of 22 Rays with his fourth highest swinging strike rate of the season (8.9%). He still has miles to go before a 6.5 SwStr% (91.3 Z-Contact%) can support a 23.1 K%, even with an 18.6 CStr% that’s above average, but not massively so. As things are, estimators ranging from a 3.94 FIP to a 4.11 SIERA are far above his 2.81 ERA (83.3 LOB%). In terms of pitch modeling, Assad doesn’t merit a PitchingBot grade above 46 on any individual offering (4.92 BotERA) to go along with an 88 Stuff+ mark (95 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -8
B30: 3.94
With Hicks now officially listed on MLB.com, it does not appear as if the Cubs have an edge in any aspect of this game. The Giants (+108) have been on par with the Cubs offensively with large defensive and pen edges.
DFS Notes: Near 90 with a near 15 mph wind out left, both teams are at exactly five implied runs, tied for the fourth highest run total. Assad was already my worst pitcher value on the board due to the unsustainable strikeout rate. If you want to be really tricky, Hicks generates so much of his contact on the ground that he could still play for less than $8K against a projected lineup that only features a trio of batters below a 23.4 K% against RHP since last year, but it’s a bit too tricky for my single entry lineups. LHBs have a .304 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against Hicks since last season with RHBs below .290. Busch, Happ, Tauchman, Bellinger all exceed a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last season and all except Tauchman exceed a .175 ISO. Tauchman still could be the best value out of the leadoff spot. His 138 wRC+ at home since last year tops the projected lineup. Batters from either side have a .325 xwOBA against Assad since last season, though RHBs have the higher wOBA. Patrick Bailey (84 wRC+, .117 ISO v RHP since last season, 118 wRC+ L30 days) is still my favorite catcher value on the board for $3.8K on DK. Wisely (43, .095, 148) would be a great value in the leadoff spot. The Assad/Amaya comb is very easy to run on. The San Francisco bullpen was heavily worked in a blowout on Sunday for some reason. Doval threw 29 pitches, Taylor Rogers (47) two of the last three and Walker (32) two in a row.
Update 5:30 EST: A 2.42% gain on SF ML. Also played Assad K prop again (u4.5 +118).
Mets @ Rangers
After blazing through his minor league rehab starts, striking out 35 of 93 batters with three walks, David Peterson dropped some velocity and has struck out only one more batters (six) than he’s walked (five) over his first 74 major league batters faced this year. He has kept 57.4% of his contact on the ground with just three barrels though. All estimators exceed Peterson’s 4.32 ERA to this point without any of the four pitches he throws more than eight percent of the time grading above 50 via PitchingBot (4.91 ERA).
Opp wRC+: 87 (94 Home, 75 L7 days)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.64
Jon Gray was lifted after 65 pitches against the Dodgers in his second appearance back from the IL Since allowing five runs in his first start of the season, Gray has a 1.53 ERA, supported by an 18.9 K-BB%, but matching 44% ground ball and hard hit rates. Not only are an 83.6 LOB% and 3.6 HR/FB (two home runs, 12 barrels) over this span unsustainable, but his approach, which is fastball/slider 90% of the time, can’t maintain these results either. It’s one thing if he’s Spencer Strider, but Gray’s pitches don’t even receive PB grades above 46 with a 97 Pitching+ mark. However, the Mets are predominantly right-handed these days (.287 wOBA, .304 xwOBA against Gray since last year), so perhaps it works out one more time.
Opp wRC+: 100 (119 Road)
DEF: 11
B30: 3.73
DFS Notes: A positive run environment with the roof closed (104 Run Factor via Statcast), probably plays as one of the better pitching environments on this slate. The Mets (4.1) and Rangers (4.4) both sit middle of this board. Peterson has shown himself to be untrustworthy in three starts, but is super cheap against a lineup that has really struggled against LHBs. The Mets have been hot and I don’t trust what Gray continues to do. However, he does continue to do it for less than $8K. Both of these pitchers are okay, not great, with some risk. LHBs have a .326 and .346 wOBA and xwOBA against Gray since last season. Nimmo (135 wRC+, .206 ISO v RHP since last season) and Lindor (107, .180) play well here, while the red hot J.D. Martinez (133, .278) remains too cheap. He, Vientos, Marte and Lindor all exceed a 140 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Gray is a pitcher who can be run on too. Batters from either side are between a .338 and .358 wOBA and xwOBA against Peterson since last year. Semien, Garcia, Grossman, Seager and Duran all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .165 ISO against LHP since last season, Duran the low man on both counts.
Update 5:40 EST: Roof closed. Stewart & Taylor in for Marte & Bader. Adds fourth LHB against Gray.
Dodgers @ Rockies
James Paxton two hit the Rangers through six innings last time out with two walks and strikeouts each. His 1.2 K-BB% still registers estimators all more than a run above his 3.92 ERA with PitchingBot grades below 45 for the only two pitches he throws more than 10% of the time (fastball, curveball). It doesn’t get any better with 74 Stuff+ and 89 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 2
B30: 3.91
Cal Quantrill allowed four runs to the Dodgers and then shut out the Cardinals in St Louis over five innings, despite four walks to one strikeout, but the splitter found its way again as he struck out five of 23 Twins with a single walk over six more shutout innings. A 3.30 ERA? No. All estimators are above four. His 8.0 K-BB% can’t support it. The 80.6% strand rate is headed for regression. However, he’s also only allowed 6.4% Barrels/BBE with a 36.6% hard contact rate. The splitter (35.6%, 2.7 RV/100, 50 PB grade) makes him better than we originally thought and this may be one of those circumstances where pitch modeling is underestimating the tunneling effect that I spoke about in the open. Fortunate for Quantrill also, it seems Ohtani has been dis-associated from Betts for the second time this year.
Opp wRC+: 118 (119 Road, 126 L7 days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.74
Waiting for an F5 line because the Dodgers have a massive pen edge, but a predominantly right-handed Colorado lineup hasn’t been terrible against LHP this year and the loss of Betts closes that gap further. They already have the starting pitching edge. DraftKings doesn’t have lines on anything past the Atlanta game at 9pm on Sunday night, but I can’t imagine I won’t be on Colorado in one way or another.
Update: COL +150 - Willing to accept the bullpen deficit for better price than F5.
DFS Notes: Near 90 degrees with a double digit wind out to right field with the Dodgers in town is just not fair. Even without the Mook, they have a 6.7 team run total that’s more than a run above any other team. The Rockies are third best (5.3) with Paxton on the mound. Batters from either side between a .301 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Paxton since last year. Montero, Toglia and Amador are below a 50 wRC+ against LHP since last season and are probably the only bats I wouldn’t be high on here. Goodman (176 wRC+, .486 ISO v LHP) is my favorite bat and value play here. Dodgers are the reason I left Harper and Schwarber off my Philly stacks. LHBs have a .339 wOBA and .355 xwOBA against Quantrill last year and even though I like the Rockies for the price in this game on the moneyline, Ohtani (199, .374) is still my top bat on the board with Freeman (166, .227) not too far behind. Heyward (119, .193), Teoscar (109, .174) and even Biggio (98, .134) are nice values here with Smith (114, .163) the top catcher on the board.
Update 5:55 EST: No movement on COL ML either (0.65% gain). Ohtani bumps up to leadoff, Smith bats second. COL shuffled the entire lineup, but McMahon out vs LHP.
Brewers @ Angels
The March prospect report on Carlos F. Rodriguez (Fangraphs) gave him a 40 Future Value grade and a 19th organizational ranking and a back end starter projection. The changeup already has a 60 grade (FG) and is the main weapon in his arsenal, which could make him a reverse platoon type with the potential for the slider to be above average too. Over 62.2 AAA innings this year, Carl-Rod has just a 13.8 K-BB%, while major projection systems project him a bit closer to five than four and a half on average. Those projections increased slightly after his initial outing against the Blue Jays, which lasted just 3.2 innings. He struck out four of 19 with a single walk, but with just an 8.5 SwStr%, 23.1 GB%, though just five hard hit batted balls.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.60
Four runs (three earned) over Jose Soriano’s last 14 innings. The 10.8 K-BB% isn’t much, but paired with a 60.1 GB% that helps mitigate a 45.1% hard contact rate, Soriano doesn’t have a single estimator more than half a run above his 3.48 ERA. Although, ALL are above his 3.48 ERA. A 101 Stuff+ grade and 99 Pitching+ are a bit more optimistic than a 4.29 Bot ERA, though the sinker and curveball (67.5% of his pitches) receive grades above 50.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: -12.5
B30: 5.08
DFS Notes: Temps below 70 with a near double digit wind out to left in a run neutral, but power friendly park, probably makes it one of the better pitcher spots on the board tonight…if we were actually interested in these two pitchers. Tons of ground balls for Soriano, who has improved his control issues, but at the expense of strikeouts. The Brewers and Angels are both middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs. Rodriguez is more a necessity than an earned promotion for the Brewers. O’Hoppe (120 wRC+, .221 ISO v RHP since last year) and Moniak (104, .197) are the top two wRC+ and ISO against RHP since last season in the lineup. O’Hoppe (169) also leads the projected lineup in wRC+ last 30 days with Pillar (138) second. RHBs have a .347 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against Soriano since last season with LHBs below .300. Hosrkins, Ortiz, Contreras and Adames all exceed a 100 wRC+ with Contreras (.144) the only one below a .190 ISO against same-handed pitching since last season. The Brewers can run a bit on this combo as well. Two days in a row for Megill (29). Ben Joyce threw 42 pitches on Sunday with Strickland (39) working two of the last three.
Update 6:05 EST: No MIL LU yet. They generally run fairly late. Drury and Calhoun in for Renifo & Pillar.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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