A smarter person would have taken a day or two off and fixed everything that needed to be fixed after the One Drive fiasco, where I had to make new folders for my spreadsheets. But no, I want to try and do everything all at once, which is virtually impossible when you want to get in depth on 15 baseball games. I'm trying to reroute connections and write up baseball games at the same time. Hopefully I got about halfway through tonight. I didn't even count. There will be notes for every game, though I can't promise DFS notes for Friday. I will try.
Thursday's results:
DFS Pitching - Good
DFS Hitting - Very bad
3-0-2 needing a comeback to win a game where our pitcher was no-hitting the Yankees for seven innings, while the F5s went 2-0-2. Have had a good feeling the last few days and it's paid off. Let's stay on track.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Cardinals @ Cubs
Kyle Gibson has struck out 21 of his last 73 batters (Reds & Rockies, but also Astros) with a 19.2 K-BB% over that span, bringing his season rate up to 11.6%. He’s also allowed just a pair of barrels and 35% hard hit rate over his last four starts. The fourth team on this run would be the Orioles. He’s throwing a few more curveballs (13%) and a few less changeups (4.9%), but that wouldn’t seem like it’s making that much of a difference. His SwStr% is up over two points to 13% over these four starts (15.5% last three), but I can’t figure out what’s going on. The sweeper is the main whiff pitch (44.2%), but that’s actually slightly lower than last year (47.1%). Statcast has a 50% whiff rate on the 69 curveballs he’s thrown this year though. I can’t tell you if it’s sustainable (well, not 50%, but overall improvement) or not.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.80
Wicks returned from a forearm injury to strike out two of 13 Reds in relief. In three rehab starts, he struck out 11 of 35 AAA batters. Wicks posted a 16.5 K-BB% in five starts before hitting the IL. His velocity was up in his return, which will probably dip back to his normal range in relief. Lots of upside, but a lack of command. What he does have is a great fastball (45.2%, 0.2 RV/100, 63 PB grade) and what the Cardinals have struggled to hit is left-handed pitching and fastballs (-0.64 wFA/C is third worst in MLB).
Opp wRC+: 82 (19.4 K%, 7.5 HR/FB)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.84
I went back and forth on this, due to Gibson’s newfound swing and miss and Wicks having just returned from the IL, but ultimately St Louis’s futility against heaters pushed it over the edge. They may be better than their 82 wRC+ against LHP too, but probably not league average. The Cubs should probably be a larger favorite even if Gibson is a bit better than originally projected. Cubs -108 because there is no F5 line available yet. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 1:50 EST: Near 10 mph wind in from CF, temps low 70s. Gibson avg 24 BF per game, 22.9 K% (12.2 SwStr%) L5 starts - CHC LU avg 23.7 K% v RHP since last year, CHC 23.9 K% v RHP this year. Looks closer to a coin flip to me (o5.5 +132 FD). 3.03% gain on CHC ML. Cubs o3.5 (-125) or Cubs F5 -124 are viable alternatives at this point.
Yankees @ Red Sox
Luis Gil has a run of seven straight quality starts with a total of five runs allowed, when the Dodgers got to him for three over 5.2 innings. Gil has been a revelation with a 30.7 K% and hard hit rate, but also an 11.9 BB%. If you believe he can sustain the contact profile, a 2.64 xERA is still more than half a run above his 2.04 ERA. If not, contact neutral estimators are a full run higher than his xERA. Maybe we meet in the middle, a bit below three and a half. Gil’s 112 Stuff+ grade works down to a 101 Pitching+ with the walks, but his best PitchingBot grade is a 56 slapped on his changeup.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.90
By contrast to Gil, Brayan Bello has allowed 20 runs over his last 26.2 innings with just a 9.7 K-BB% (11.9% season) and 45.3% hard hit rate, but 59.3% of his contact on the ground. A 4.64 FIP nearly matches a 4.78 ERA with nine of 12 barrels leaving the park. The xERA also stretches above four (4.31), but contact neutral estimators are not much higher than Gil’s. In fact, Bello’s 3.48 Bot ERA is half a run better than Gil’s (3.93) and his 105 Pitching+ is four points higher (104 Stuff+). Bello receives a 58 PB grade on his sinker (40.1%) and 57 on his slider (28.7%).
Opp wRC+: 128 (10.6 K-BB%, 16.6 HR/FB)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.34
Buying low and selling high is a common concept in sports betting and that’s what I’m hesitantly doing with these starting pitchers (BOS +136). It helps to much better bullpen estimators too.
Update 3:40 EST: Upper 70s, near double digit wind out to left, rain potential, 1.11% gain on BOS ML.
Marlins @ Nationals
This may be Max Meyer, who made three early season starts with a 16.9 K-BB% and impressive 104 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades, but 12.8% Barrels/BBE. An 18 K-BB% over eight AAA starts, that have only totaled 28.2 innings.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -8
B30: 3.63
After a one game blip, MacKenzie Gore got right back on the horse that threw him off and dominated the Braves. He has a 20.1 K-BB% with all estimators within half a run of his 3.57 ERA and an even more impressive 115 Stuff+ grade (105 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 70 (5.7 BB%, 6.3 HR/FB)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 3.83
Update 3:45 EST: Anderson gets the start for the Marlins (LHP). Chisholm bats leadoff against LHP. Meneses in for Gallo.
Phillies @ Orioles
A 22.4 K-BB%, 52% ground ball rate and 33.3% hard contact rate for Ranger Suarez. He even pitched efficiently in London. What’s not to like? All estimators below three and the sinker (31.9%, 1 RV/100, 59 PB grade) should play well against the Orioles (-0.64 wSI/C is seventh worst). An 84 Stuff+ score works up to a 102 Pitching+ (3.68 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 127 (118 Home) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 2
B30: 2.90
Two runs or less in six of seven outings for Kyle Bradish, including no run quality starts in two of his last three. There was some injury concern after he was pushed back following a difficult start against the Rays, but he quelled them by allowing a single hit in the rematch, while holding his season velocity. The 34 K% may be unsustainable with a 10.7 SwStr% and a 9.7% walk rate is a bit high. While this all may eventually push contact neutral estimators above three, but for now, all non-FIP estimators are within half a run of his 2.62 ERA, due in part to an elite contact profile (53.2 GB%, 29.2 IFFB%, 3.9% Barrels/BBE, 24.7% hard hit rate). Pitch modeling likes the early returns on Bradish as well (115 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+, 3.48 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 107 (112 Road)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.88
Update 3:50 EST: Wind may neutralize any positive temperature effects, rain possible.
Guardians @ Blue Jays
Since a pair of six inning, no run quality starts (no barrels), Logan Allen has allowed not only 12 runs over his last 13.1 innings, but five home runs on six barrels (13.6%) with a 6.3 K-BB%. Allen has also allowed a disturbing 52.6% hard contact rate over his last nine starts, only twice below 50% over this span. His 5.50 FIP matches a 5.57 ERA with a 5.16 xERA not too much lower. Contact neutral estimators (10.9 K-BB%) are in the low to mid-fours. Pitch modeling confirms much of the same (71 Stuff+, 91 Pitching+, 4.86 Bot ERA). Allen doesn’t exceed 46 on any of his pitch grades (PB).
Opp wRC+: 88 (7.6 K-BB%, 6.3 HR/FB) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.00
After Baltimore tagged him for his fourth outing of at least six runs this year, Kevin Gusman followed up by striking out 10 of the 32 White Sox he faced in a five hit shutout. The Baltimore starts was his most fastball heavy of the year (66%). The discouraging news is that his 92.6 mph average against the White Sox was his second lowest game average of the season (91.7 mph in second start) and more than a mph below his season rate (93.8 mph), but that could also be a function of throwing 109 pitches, his second highest total of the season. Gausman is up to an 18.1 K-BB%, but with 11.2% Barrels/BBE. His .318 BABIP is now in line with his career rate (.315). A 5.12 xERA is Gausman’s only estimator above a 4.00 ERA with others around half a run below. PitchingBot still likes the fastball (63 grade) and splitter (57) to go along with a 106 Pitching+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 103 (18.6 K%)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.36
Update 4:50 EST: So @IsTheDomeOpen appears to have vacated their duties. There's a marginal run environmental increase with the roof open on average, so it's a bitch not to know. We do know Doug Eddings favors pitchers.
Padres @ Mets
A pair of runs over Matt Waldron’s last 19.1 innings, although his lowest knuckleball velocity (77.2%) in five starts last time out. We noted how increased knuckler velo has led to an increase in strikeouts, but he’s now only struck out eight of his last 44 batters. While he’s increased knuckleball usage to 41.8% over his last five starts, he’s still throwing his fastball (21.9%) and sweeper (19.3%) quite often too. With a 16.1 K-BB% and 32.3% hard contact rate, Waldron features estimators all within half a run of his 3.76 ERA. That sweeper (0.9 RV/100, 64 PB grade) is something the Mets may struggle with (-0.35 wSL/C is 10th worst MLB).
Opp wRC+: 99 (95 Home) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.31
Sean Manaea was rolling for three innings in London until the fourth inning turned into a nightmare he didn’t make it out of. While he’s maintained a 17.3 K-BB% over his last six starts, Manaea has now allowed 12 runs over his last 9.1 innings with three home runs, five barrels (17.1%) and a 57.1% hard contact rate. He’s hit the 50% hard contact rate in three of his last four starts. With only six of 16 barrels leaving the yard on the year, non-FIP estimators are all within a quarter run of his 4.30 ERA. Manaea’s 86 Stuff+ grade works up to a 97 Pitching+, but there is something interesting in his PitchingBot grades and that’s the sinker (41.9%, 2.1 RV/100, 55 PB grade). That’s because the sinker is the only pitch the Padres have been below average against (-1.16 wSI/C is actually worst in MLB).
Opp wRC+: 97 (17.5 K%, 113 Road)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.86
Update 5:05 EST: Taylor in for Bader. Higashioka for Campusano. Going against line movement, but SD (-102) has every edge in this game (SP, OFF, DEF, PEN).
Rays @ Braves
Three straight quality starts for Zack Littell, though exactly three runs allowed in all three, the value here is in 3.8 BB% (18 K-BB%). His 3.63 ERA is below non-FIP estimators that run only as high as a 4.00 dERA with only eight of 19 barrels turning into home runs. Pitch modeling confirms he’s getting by on command (83 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+), but he splitter (22%, -0.2 RV/100, 66 PB grade) could do some damage against the Braves (-1.93 wFS/C is second worst in the league).
Opp wRC+: 98 (69 L7 days)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.02
Chris Sale followed up his worst outing of the season, allowing eight runs to the A’s, by striking out 10 of 27 Nationals over seven two run innings. Sale’s performance (27.4 K-BB%, 5.3% Barrels/BBE, 32.3% hard contact rate) has been the brightest spot for a disappointing team with his 3.01 ERA more than a quarter run above all estimators. The slider (40.4%, 1.8 RV/100, 57 PB grade) should remain the weapon of choice against the Rays (-0.51 wSL/C is fifth worst in baseball). Sale’s 107 Stuff+ working down to a 101 Pitching+ is a bit of a surprise.
Opp wRC+: 101 (59 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.86
Update 5:15 EST: 90 degrees, 5 mph wind out to center.
Tigers @ Astros
Ten of Tarik Skubal’s 13 starts have resulted in quality starts of two earned runs or less (one with two unearned runs too). He’s failed to strike out at least six just once (though exactly that many six times). With a 26.2 K-BB% and 32.1% hard contact rate, Skubal’s worst estimator is a 2.66 SIERA. Houston has really struggled with changeups (-0.97 wCH/C is fourth worst in MLB) and Skubal has a great one (26.5%, 0.6 RV/100, 68 PB grade) to go along with 105 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 110 (15.7 K%) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.96
Four runs over Hunter Brown’s last 18 innings, striking out 23 of 70 batters with just five walks. The 11.4 SwStr% over that span pushes his season rate up to exactly 10%. The big change has been more sinkers (13.8%) and fewer sliders (4.3%) over his last four starts. That makes no sense, until you realize his sinker (22.2%) has a higher whiff rate than his slider (16.3%). Brown has surrendered 11 home runs, but just nine barrels (5.2%) on the season, the biggest difference between his 5.58 ERA, 4.86 FIP and additional estimators not exceeding four. Pitch modeling thinks Brown has decent stuff (104 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.98
Athletics @ Twins
Mitch Spence has allowed just nine runs over 26 innings in starting role, but with just an 11.3 K-BB% and somewhat below average contact profile (8.5% Barrels/BBE, 40.2% hard hit rate). However, only one of those barrels has left the yard, producing a 2.95 FIP/4.24 xFIP line. Pitch modeling grades over this span are quite average though (101 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+, 3.83 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 103 (110 Home, 142 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 4.61
SWR has struck out 12 of his last 44 batters with a 16 SwStr%. Necessary to illustrate because he’d struck out nine of his previous 80 batters with a 6.6 SwStr%. Fastball velocity has slightly increased, but it’s been reduced reliance on his fastball and increased slider and changeup usage against Pittsburgh and Houston that’s likely responsible. The changeup (20.8%) has a chance to be his true weapon this year (68 PB grade), despite a negative run value (-3 RV/100).
Opp wRC+: 92 (27 K%)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 4.09
Update 5:30 EST: Lews, Jeffers out. Davis in for Toro. Schuemann bats leadoff.
Reds @ Brewers
This pair of de-facto “Aces” haven’t been very Ace-like in recent outings. A career low 16.2 K-BB% doesn’t feel any worse than normal because his 5.1% Barrels/BBE and 34.2% hard hit rates are large reductions too. However, in his last two games against the Cubs (nine runs), Greene allowed three barrels with a 50% hard contact rate and is facing another opponent that knows him well. Pitching in Cincinnati, seven of his 10 barrels have left the yard. Milwaukee isn’t as power friendly, but is no power killer either. A 3.02 xERA is actually more than half a run below Greene’s 3.61 ERA and makes some sense, considering his 124 Stuff+ grade. However, that drops down to a 103 Pitching+ and if you don’t believe he can sustain the contact profile improvements, which aren’t as sticky as strikeouts and walks, then he has contact neutral estimators above his ERA, running as high as a 4.24 xFIP.
Opp wRC+: 116 (121 Home)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.37
Freddy Peralta walked five Tigers last time out and has allowed at least three runs in fewer than six innings in three of his last five starts. However, his previous five games leading up to Detroit included a 28.2 K-BB%. An incredible 16 of his 26 walks have come in three blow up games. He still holds an elite 22.7 K-BB% with a 33.3% hard contact rate, despite 10.1% Barrels/BBE. Those barrels push his xERA up to 3.81, Peralta’s only non-FIP estimator within a half run of his 3.95 ERA. He’s a bit better than that, as his 109 Stuff+ grade and 103 Pitching+ (the same as Greene) suggest.
Opp wRC+: 87 (26.7 K%)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.50
It’s funny. Peralta and Greene’s SIERA and xERAs basically inverse each other, but Peralta somehow has an xFIP exactly a run better than Greene. That, along with large offensive and defensive edges have me siding with the home team F5 (-132).
Update 5:40 EST: Roof open, 69 degrees, probably same 98 run factor as with it closed. 5.51% gain on MIL F5.
Pirates @ Rockies
Maybe Luis Ortiz with an opener? He has an 8.2 K-BB% with 10.1% Barrels/BBE and threw 58 pitches in his last relief appearance. I can’t explain his 3.57 xERA with that profile. Estimators run as high as a 4.89 xFIP.
Opp wRC+: 77 (26 K%, 78 Home)
DEF: -13
B30: 4.05
Since striking out 10 Rays in his first home start of the year, Ryan Feltner has struck out a total 12 batters in four home starts since. He has just a 5.7 K-BB% at home since last season, where the focus appears to be on ground ball reliance (48.6%). He has a career 6.9 K-BB% at home (12.7% on the road). Overall on the season, his 6.2 BB% and Barrels/BBE projects a 3.67 xERA two runs below Feltner’s 5.74 ERA. All estimators are at least a run and a half below actual results. Pitch modeling believes him to be very average (98 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+, 4.17 Bot ERA), but that just doesn’t appear to be the case at home. LHBs have a .362 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against him since last year with RHBs below .320.
Opp wRC+: 80 (25 K%, 85 Road)
DEF: 8
B30: 4.76
Update 6:15 EST: Ortiz behind an opener. Nolan Jones back in action. With nearly neutral weather Coors only 25% above average run environment. Pitcher estimators low fours, but both offenses are massively below average. COL even has an above average defense. This total is too high (u11 -105).
White Sox @ Diamondbacks
Chris Flexen has allowed five runs over his last 15 innings with just a 10.2 K-BB%. He has allowed 8.7% Barrels/BBE this season, but has also limited hard contact fairly well (34.2%). That makes Flexen’s 4.40 xERA the best of his estimators. In fact, he’s generated more popups (18) than barrels (17). I’ve never seen a man so hated by pitch modeling though, especially Stuff+ (55), which does work its way up to a 93 Pitching+ that’s still subpar, like his 5.17 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 95 (107 Home, 131 L7 days)
DEF: -18
B30: 4.15
Ryne Nelson has allowed six runs over 18.2 innings against the Dodgers, Rangers and Giants before the Padres clubbed him for six last time out. With just a 14.2 K% and 9.2% Barrels/BBE, bats are going to have to find a lot of gloves for things to go consistently right for him and while the Diamondbacks may have the best defense in the league, it’s not that good. He doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half, though pitch modeling seems to enjoy what its seeing from him (101 Pitching+, 3.88 Bot ERA, 55 grade fastball).
Opp wRC+: 77 (76 Road)
DEF: 18
B30: 4.43
It’s rare that I’ll play a large favorite based mostly on offense and defense, but that’s what we have here. If you go by estimators, Flexen may be slightly better than Nelson. By pitch modeling, Nelson is the better pitcher by a larger margin. I’m willing to call it a wash, but the offensive and defensive edges are so big here, I’m willing to back the home team (-158 F5).
Update 6:25 EST: Roof closed. Pham back. Grichuk and Barnhart in for McCarthy & Moreno. Flexen reverse split.
Royals @ Dodgers
If you haven’t watched the recent PitcherList video breakdown of Cole Ragans’ last start against the Mariners, it’s a good 20 minutes spent and illustrated that the slider may be back. If that’s the case, the league may need to look out. Now up to a 30.2 K%, 14.4 SwStr% and 77.3 Z-Contact%, Ragans doesn’t have a single non-FIP estimator more than one-fifth or a run removed from his 3.08 ERA. Six quality starts of two runs or less in his last eight starts. Have of his 28 runs this year have come in two outings in LA (AL) and Baltimore. Pitch modeling just wants more with a 109 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+ and 3.48 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 132 (19 K%)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.49
Gavin Stone has allowed two runs over his last 17.2 innings against the Mets, Rockies and Yankees, striking out 19 of 71 batters with four walks. He only really had an above average SwStr against Coloardo though (17.3%). His contact profile has been superb (5.8% Barrels/BBE, 32% hard hit rate), while an 11.4 K-BB% is a bit lacking. He’s leaned into a few more sinkers and sliders these last three starts, at the expensive of changeups, but none of those teams has more than three or four LHBs, so it could have been matchup dependent. We could say the same for the Royals though. We still have to note that Stone’s 2.93 ERA is mostly the product of an 80.5 LOB% and just five of 12 barrels leaving the yard. Non-FIP estimators are all more than a run above his ERA and pitch modeling sees the same thing. Average (98 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+, 4.28 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 101 (18.8 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.85
Ragans may be as much as a full run better than Stone by my weighted estimators, which include Bot ERA. Add in the Kansas City defensive edge and I think that wipes away most of the Dodger offensive edge here, which I don’t think is as large as the numbers suggest, considering KC’s lower strikeout rate against RHP.
Update 7 EST: 5.36% gain on KC F5
Rangers @ Mariners
The north-south approach appears to be working for Andrew Heaney. He’s not striking out as many batters (21.7%), but has significantly reduced his walk rate (5.6%) and barrels (7.3%), despite increasing his rate of hard contact overall (42.9%). He’s throwing the same pitches at the same usage levels and even decreased more than a mph this year, but he appears to be locating the better to avoid the barrel of the bat. Heaney’s Stuff+ grade has dropped to 81 from 103 last year, but his Location+ has improved from 100 to 103. A 4.64 dERA is his only estimator more than one-third of a run removed from a 4.06 ERA, but I can’t tell you why because they don’t give out the formula to their secret sauce.
Opp wRC+: 93 (27.2 K%) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 9.5-
B30: 3.64
The five runs Luis Castillo allowed to the Royals last time out was the first time he allowed more than four since his third start of the season, but the signs might have been there. He has just a 7.4 K-BB% over his last five starts with 10 barrels (11.6%). Potentially hidden by the park, LHBs now have a .321 wOBA and .323 xwOBA against him since last season. Castillo still has strong season numbers with an 18.2 K-BB% and an estimator range only from 3.62 (SIERA) to 3.72 (xFIP). His 99 Stuff+ and 3.89 Bot ERA are a bit underwhelming as well.
Opp wRC+: 98 (19.4 K%, 61 L7 days – watch for Seager’s status after scratch on Thursday)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.79
Update 7:15 EST: Just three LHBs against Castillo is a gift from the Rangers. Considered going under their team total, if not for Castillo's struggles of late.
Angels @ Giants
Sometimes you’ll find a guy who’s ERA doesn’t match estimators, but there’s something in the pitch modeling supporting results. Not the case at all for Tyler Anderson, who’s 2.63 ERA is more than two runs below ALL estimators and unsupported by below average 94 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ grades. His 4.26 Bot ERA would be his best estimator by over one-third of a run. Anderson has just a 6.1 K-BB% with 9.9% Barrels/BBE. It’s generally a REALLY bad sign when the second number is higher than the first. About the only good thing we can say is that his 11.6 SwStr% strongly suggests his 16 K% has to improve somewhat. So then his estimators are only a run and a half worse than his ERA?
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.4 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.79
Three outings, 13.1 innings, Spencer Howard hasn’t completed five innings yet, but does have a competent 11.3 K-BB%, even if the contact profile is a mess (9.8% Barrels/BBE, 48.8% hard contact). He dominated AAA with a 22.6 K-BB% over 39.2 innings, so we’re not concerned with the contact in such a small sample yet. Howard has just an 87 Stuff+ grade, but that works up to 99 Pitching+ with a 4.24 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: 7.5
B30: 3.18
Maybe starting pitching is a wash, but Howard’s numbers are slightly better. The Giants have the better offense, defense and bullpen though, by not small margins. (-134).
Update 7:10 EST: Angels going 6 RHBs. Howard has shown reverse split tendencies. Lefty masher Nick Ahmed returns and must be behind the 3.06% gain on SF ML.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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