Wasn't expecting 11 on Thursday. Still have a couple to go. Had a good feeling about Wednesday and it mostly paid off. Started off early in the day by actually holding in a game that was 99% to win and then an easy F5 win in St Louis on a line with a 3.75% gain. If it weren't for Peterson crapping the bed, daily fantasy lineups could have cashed too. Good vibes to keep it going.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Braves @ Orioles
From the I Don’t Buy Into Any of the Shit These Pitchers are doing division, the lesser offender, Reynaldo Lopez, has at least struck out 15 of his last 48 batters and has a 12.0 SwStr% on the season. Only four of his 13 barrels have left the park though, and he’s stranded 85.2% of his runners. Tight 3.70 (xFIP) – 4.02 (dERA) range for the rest of his estimators. Pitch modeling takes a bit of a dump on Lopez too. I shouldn’t phrase it that way. They think he’s average, rather than a superstar (100 Pitching+, 4.09 Bot ERA). The slider (29.4%, 2.3 RV/100, 45 PB grade) is playing better than it appears to be and could be a problem here (O’s 0.3 wSL/C is sixth best in baseball).
Opp wRC+: 114 (119 Home, 129 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.64
Cole Irvin has a 16.7 K% (7.3 SwStr%) and has allowed 10% Barrels/BBE. His saving graces are a 4.7 BB% and that just six of his 20 barrels have left the yard because the Orioles were tired of the AL East bombing their crappy pitching and moved the left field wall back to Washington. A tight range for his non-FIP estimators too (4.20 xFIP – 4.64 dERA), while Stuff+ really does dump on him (82), though PitchingBots cedes grades above 50 to all of his offering with a 3.60 Bot ERA. Either way, the 2.87 ERA is fraudulent.
Opp wRC+: 105 (50 L7 days)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.97
Update 12 EST: Near 90 degrees with winds just below 10 mph out to left. Surprised Adley is catching this day after night. Murphy out. Stowers in for Mountcastle. Braves playing Kelenic against the lefty with a normal platoon split.
Nationals @ Tigers
The Nationals were originally going to skip Patrick Corbin’s turn in the rotation, but the Tigers were looking so forward to facing him that they decided to relent. He’s down to a 13.8 K% with 10.4% Barrels/BBE and 48.4% hard hit rate. All of his estimators are above four and a half with a 6.92 xERA higher than his 6.15 ERA. Pitch modeling believes he has one good pitch, a cutter he throws 16.4% of the time (-1.1 RV/100, 58 PB grade). If you’re Patrick Corbin and clinging to your major league life with a single pitch that might be above average, wouldn’t you throw it more? But it has a negative run value. ALL HIS PITCHES DO! Maybe it helps that the Tigers are fourth worst in the league against cutters (-0.93 wFC/C), but they’re bad against all pitches (except fastballs).
Opp wRC+: 82 (48 L7 days)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 3.85
Casey Mize also has a 43.2% hard contact rate, but at least he keeps half of his on the ground with a MUCH more impressive 14.8 K%. With the high ground ball rate though, all of his estimators are below his 4.73 ERA and below four and a half, some more than half a run so, though remaining above four. The Nationals are the opposite of the Tigers. They stink against fastballs (-0.46 wFA/C is seventh worst) and PitchingBot thinks Mize has a good one (41.2%, -0.4 RV/100, 57 grade). Pitch modeling seems to like Mize more than he deserves overall (108 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 92 (85 Road)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.79
I may think Mize is a bit over-valued by pitch modeling, but he’s certainly better than Corbin and the Tigers have a far better defense too. Give me the baseball bengals -125 F5. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 12:15 EST: Near 90, double digit wind in from left. A few lower lineup changes for the Nats. 2.77% gain on DET F5.
Yankees @ Royals
Nestor Cortes has struggled against defense offenses, but dominated poor offenses at home. In road starts, he’s allowed at least three runs to everyone except the Angels without a quality start. He has a competent 15.9 K-BB% on the road since last year, which is fine, but certainly a dip from his overall 19% mark this season. The hard contact rate is getting up there too (45% with 8.7% Barrels/BBE), though with a 27.9 GB% and 44.5% Z-O-Swing%, he somehow has a 3.30 xERA that’s his only estimator below a 3.68 ERA. RHBs now have a .323 wOBA and .301 xwOBA against him since last year too. PithingBot likes the command (3.51 Bot ERA) with grades between 54 and 56 on virtually everything. Well, not virtually, actually everything he’s thrown more than 1% of the time.
Opp wRC+: 106 (18.4 K%, 113 Home)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.85
If Alec Marsh pitches as he did last time out against the Mariners with fastballs up and sliders down and glove side, instead of here it is, hit it, like he’s done far too often…well, it’s the Yankees, he still might be in trouble, but it gives him a chance. He was also pumping 95 mph last time out, nearly a full mph up from his season average. A 14.7 K-BB% is above average, but too many fat pitches has led to 9.7% Barrels/BBE. Oddly, he’s only allowed more than a single barrel in three starts though. A 4.70 xERA is about a half run above other estimators, which all sit within a quarter run of Marsh’s 4.05 ERA. Pitch modeling sees similar value in Marsh and Cortes with PitchingBot grades in the low to mid-50s and a 100 Pitching+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 129 (10.6 K-BB%, 16.7 HR/FB)
DEF: 8
B30: 4.30
I give the Yankees small edges everywhere, but they’re just small and with the Royals at home, +130 seems a bit too much.
Update 12:35 EST: Lower 90s, double digit wind out to left. Stanton sits. 1.11% loss on KC.
Pirates @ Cardinals
Mitch Keller has posted six straight quality starts with a total of five runs allowed and a 17.7 K-BB% that’s two points ahead of his 15.4% season rate. He’s also allowed only six barrels and a 36.3% hard contact rate over this run, also better than his season averages. Only six of his 17 barrels have left the park this season, so we wipe away the 3.16 ERA matching 3.31 FIP and look at additional estimators ranging from a 3.85 xFIP to a 4.24 dERA, but also realize he may be improving in season. PitchingBot deems the sinker (23.2%, 0.3 RV/100, 47 PB grade) his only below average pitch. Keller’s 102 Stuff+ and Pitching+ scores over his six game run are just a bit above what they were before (100 & 98).
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: -13
B30: 4.22
Just seven of Lance Lynn’s 17 barrels (8.7%) have left the park this year as compared to 44 of 56 last year. That and a 2.8 point K-BB drop to 12.5% are the difference this year. His ERA is two runs lower than last year, but his xERA is only down half a run to 4.28. All non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above Lynn’s 3.58 ERA. He has just an 83 Stuff+ mark and a single PitchingBot grade above 50 (cutter 27.3%, -2.6 RV/100, 53 grade).
Opp wRC+: 81
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.78
Update 12:30 EST: Mid-90s, near double digit wind out to left-center. McCutchen sits. Helsley (39) back to back days.
Cubs @ Rays
Seven of Justin Steele’s 25 runs have been unearned. I don’t hate just tossing that rain soaked game against the Reds two starts back and that would leave him with a pair of seven inning outings, striking out 15 of 53 batters in Milwaukee and Cincinnati. A 16.5 K-BB% and 5.4% Barrels/BBE suggest he’s almost fully back or maybe last year was an outlier and he’s just good instead of a perennial Cy Young contender. A 3.65 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators above it and within half a run of a 3.16 xERA below it. PitchingBot still believes in Steele’s stardom with a 64 grade fastball (57.8%, -0.8 RV/100) and 65 grade slider (31.3%, -1.4 RV/100), the latter a pitch the Rays are sixth worst in the league against (-0.51 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 107 (25.1 K%)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.82
Fourteen of Taj Bradley’s 18 runs have been surrendered in just two of his six starts to the Orioles and Red Sox. Those starts are also responsible for six of his eight home runs, but just seven of his 14 barrels (17.3%). That’s just massive with 40% of his hard contact coming in barrels. There’s blowup potential here with a 30.9 GB%, but there’s also a 29.8 K%. The fastball is thrown 40.5% of the time with a negative run value (-2.4 RV/100), exceeding a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against, but PitchingBot thinks it’s a good pitch (53 grade) and that’s including location. Bradley has a 108 Stuff+ grade and 102 Pitching+, but something is going on. The pitches PB doesn’t like are the cutter (22.7%, 1.4 RV/100, 45 grade) and curve (12.2%, -1.5 RV/100, 28 grade), but neither exceeds a .300 wOBA against.
Opp wRC+: 98 (24.2 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.72
Update 4:55 EST: Tauchman back in the leadoff spot. Rays one LHB against Steele's reverse split.
Phillies @ Red Sox
Both of these pitchers are rolling and pitching deep into games. Seventh inning outs in four of Aaron Nola’s last five outings, all quality starts. In fact, he has six quality starts of at least seven innings this year. His K-BB (16.4%) is actually down 3.4 points from last year and nearly four points below his career rate, but his 6.1% Barrels/BBE is his lowest rate since the pandemic shortened season. Eleven of those 14 barrels have actually left the park, eight of them at home because…Philadelphia. With a .223 BABIP and 79.6 LOB%, all of Nola’s estimators run more than half a run above his 2.77 ERA, though only as high as a 3.81 FIP. Pitch modeling returns are good (106 Pitching+), but only the sinker (20.1%, 1.2 RV/100, 64 grade) and curveball (32.8%, 1.6 RV/100, 66 grade) rate above average via PitchingBot, though well above average.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 2
B30: 2.88
Tanner Houck has four seven inning quality starts in his last six attempts, has gone at least 5.2 innings in every start and only allowed more than three earned once. Six of his 24 runs are unearned though. A 20.5 K-BB% no the season with 3.9% Barrels/BBE that probably isn’t sustainable, despite 55.5% of his contact on the ground, which helps navigate a 41.6% hard contact rate. A 3.23 xERA is Houck’s only estimator above three. Add in a 108 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ with a 2.86 Bot ERA and all pitch grades above average.
Opp wRC+: 107 (20.4 K%, 112 Road)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.28
DFS Notes: A six/seven game Thursday night slate with a pair/trio of domes includes temperatures much more moderate than afternoon affairs with double digit winds blowing out in a few spots. We separate the haves from the have nots tonight with four offenses in the 4.9 to 5.0 run range, then a drop off of more than half a run with a pair of offenses and another drop of nearly three-quarters of a run for the remaining six. Even with the loss of Yamamoto, there are several quality arms to choose from. Problematically, FanDuel is including the 6:50 EST game in Tampa Bay, while DraftKings is not. I did not factor that into research and won’t be including the early game.
We start with temps in the upper 70s and a double digit wind out to left at Fenway. In an already pitcher friendly environment, this will likely play almost like Coors and with neither offense being as poor as the Rockies, it crushes the value of two good pitchers in my mind. Nola because he doesn’t miss enough bats and with Yoshida back, strikeouts in the Boston lineup are more moderate. Houck is just facing too good an offense in too tough a spot. These are the two middle teams at 4.25 implied runs each without a single offense within half a run either way. I don’t hate LHBs from either team here, despite Houck’s improvement in that area. Harper, Devers, Schwarber, Duran all exceed a 110 wRC+ and .210 ISO v RHP since last year. Boston used five relievers last night, but none reaching 20 pitches and only Booser (19) now off back to back days.
Update 5 EST: Seven LHBs against Nola, who doesn't really have a split anymore. Merrifield in for Bohm.
Marlins @ Mets
Roddery Munoz has allowed eight home runs and 11 barrels to just 85 batters. He has struck out 25.9% of batters faced, but with a 12.9 BB%, generating a 7.27 xERA through four starts. Contact neutral estimators sit around four and a third, but this is the kind of contact we can’t ignore, even in such small a sample. Munoz receives PitchingBot grades below 40 on everything but his sinker (21.4%, -0.3 RV/100, 54 grade) to go along with a 95 Pitching+ score.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -8
B30: 3.44
Just a 10.4 K-BB%, but 52% ground ball rate and just 4.4% Barrels/BBE for Luis Severino this season. The sinker has become a weapon (22.6%, 2 RV/100, 59 PB grade) and one the Marlins don’t like (-0.58 wSI/C is sixth worst), even if it is his only above average pitch (PitchingBot). Severino has a 3.90 Bot ERA and 104 Stuff+ grade to go along with estimators ranging from a 3.55 xERA to a 4.25 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 87 (46 L7 days)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.24
Marlins have the bullpen edge, so we’ll go just F5 with a steep home favorite (-174), but Munoz has been absolutely ambushed, while Severino has been fine. The Mets have decent offensive and defensive edges at home too.
DFS Notes: With temps in the 70s and another double digit wind out to left, Citi Field may play a bit closer to neutrally here. Munoz has been supplying his own power though. The Mets are currently the top offense on the board and one of my two favorite stacks tonight. Alonso, Alvarez, Nimmo, Martinez and Lindor all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .175 ISO v RHP since last season. Marte and Vientos exceed a 150 wRC+ L30 days. Did we mention LHBs are above a .450 wOBA and xwOBA against Munoz so far? RHBs .249, but .372. Severino isn’t missing enough bats to have daily fantasy value, especially with the increased weather risk. Burger, Chisholm, Sanchez all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .180 ISO v RHP since last season. Since last season, LHBs are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Severino, RHBs above .310, but those numbers have dropped this year. Edwin Diaz is back tonight, whatever that means.
Update 5:10 EST: Wind out to left has increased to above 15 mph. Torrens in for Alvarez.
Athletics @ Twins
We’ve seen the entire Luis Medina experience in two starts. He struck out six Braves with a single walk and no runs, following it up by walking six Blue Jays with one strikeout and six runs allowed. Dangerous, but inconsistent with his command. We can see the story in his pitch modeling through two starts, which offers a 102 Stuff+ grade, but 90 Pitching+ without a single PitchingBot grade reaching 50 when factoring in location.
Opp wRC+: 102 (109 Home, 144 L7 days) (incl. Wed)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.34
Four home runs and six barrels in Houston two starts back have done a number on Joe Ryan’s contact profile (10.9% Barrels/BBE). However, all non-FIP estimators are below his 3.30 on the season by less than a quarter of a run. Ryan also has seven inning quality starts with two runs or less in four of his last six starts. Along with a 104 Pitching+ grade (98 Stuff+), Ryan has a 2.52 Bot ERA featuring a pair of 65+ grade pitches in his sweeper/slider and fastball. The splitter, the only other pitch he really shows, is at a mere 56. The A’s are near the bottom of the league against everything except changeups.
Opp wRC+: 94 (27.1 K%, 85 Road)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.12
DFS Notes: Near 80 degrees with a near double digit wind out to right. The Twins (4.94) are just behind the Mets and my second favorite stack on the board. Very simple tonight. The A’s are second from the bottom (3.09). Joe Ryan is my top pitcher on the board and SP1 on DK. I’d probably be playing him FD too. Slight interest in Toro (108 wRC+, .144 ISO v RHP since last year) and Soderstrom (70, .124), the second really a catcher punt, at two tough positions tonight, though Ryan’s reverse split (RHBs .331 wOBA, .303 xwOBA since last year), likely helps him a bit with wind direction. Rooker (133, .245) is fine also. Every projected Minnesota bat has at least a .150 ISO v RHP since last season with only Miranda (94) below a 100 wRC+. Batters from either side are between a .326 and .344 wOBA and xwOBA against Medina in his career. He could pile up strikeouts or walk the park. Minnesota bats are better employed as part of a stack. The only Oakland arm that matters, Miller has thrown just seven pitches the last three days, but guys beneath him have been heavily used this week.
Update 5:20 EST: Ump leans hitter friendly (DeJesus). Kirilloff and Miranda out. Castro hits leadoff.
Angels @ Diamondbacks
Four quality starts for Griffin Canning over his last seven outings, having not allowed more than three runs in any of them. His 7.0 K-BB% over this span is the same as it is on the season (6.9%), while his 43.8% hard contact rate is a smidge higher. Heavy lifting done by a 91.7 LOB%. On the season, Canning has a 4.65 ERA that’s below every single one of his estimators to go along with an 86 Stuff+ grade and 5.18 Bot ERA. The worst of his pitches is the fastball he leans on (32.4%, -1.1 RV/100, 29 PB grade) and he’s facing number one offense in baseball against heaters (0.66 wFA/C). He can choose to throw fewer, but he won’t choose to thrown none.
Opp wRC+: 96 (107 Home, 134 L7 days)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.91
With 13 runs over his last 18.1 innings, Brandon Pfaadt is up to a 4.60 ERA that’s nearly a run above all of his estimators, running only as high as a 3.70 dERA. With an 18.8 K-BB% and just 5.6% Barrels/BBE (35.8% hard hit rate) the answer is simply sequencing (61 LOB%). Perhaps he needs something that can better handle LHBs (.342 wOBA this year), but maybe not so much against the Angels. The 62 grade heater (36.1%, 0.9 RV/100) and 66 grade sweeper (29.8%, -1.9 RV/100) should be fine, along with his 105 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 17
B30: 4.31
These pitchers have the same ERA, but Canning’s best estimator is more than a run above Pfaadt’s worst. Arizona has a larger offensive edge than their numbers against RHP seem and you couldn’t find teams on further ends of the defensive spectrum. Arizona has the bullpen edge too, but I’m finding more of an edge in the lower F5 price.
DFS Notes: Closed roof, slightly negative run environment, though the Diamondbacks reach 4.91 implied runs with the Angels at 3.59. As you might infer from the above, I believe Pfaadt to be under-priced. He is my DK SP2. The Angels lack quality LHBs to attack his platoon issues. Batters from either side are between a .314 and .331 wOBA and xwOBA against Canning since last season. If I could add a third stack, it would be Diamondbacks. Still pretty straight forward today. The top four in their standard order against RHP all exceed a 110 wRC+ with a .190+ ISO against RHP since last season.
Update 6:30 EST: Hitter friendly Moscoso behind the plate. Would certainly like to thank Washington for only writing three LHBs into his lineup tonight. A 5.26% gain on ARI F5 gives us more than a 4% gain on all three F5s tonight.
White Sox @ Mariners
Garrett Crochet has allowed six runs (five earned) over his last 41 innings with a 30.6 K-BB%. An incredible 17 of his 29 runs this year were allowed in one horrendous three start stretch, long since forgotten. With just 5.6% Barrels/BBE, Crochet’s 2.30 ERA is a full run below his 3.33 ERA (72.8 LOB% is too low for his stuff). In fact, his worst estimator is still more than half a run below his actual ERA. Crochet compliments these metrics with strong pitch modeling, including 105 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades and a 2.51 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 96 (26.1 K%)
DEF: -15
B30: 4.13
The five runs Luis Castillo allowed to the Royals last time out was the first time he allowed more than four since his third start of the season, but the signs might have been there. He has just a 7.4 K-BB% over his last five starts with 10 barrels (11.6%). Potentially hidden by the park, LHBs now have a .321 wOBA and .323 xwOBA against him since last season. Castillo still has strong season numbers with an 18.2 K-BB% and an estimator range only from 3.62 (SIERA) to 3.72 (xFIP), but not nearly as strong as Crochet’s. His 99 Stuff+ and 3.89 Bot ERA don’t really compare either.
Opp wRC+: 73 (134 L7 days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.71
Liked this one above, so let’s try it again. These pitchers have the same ERA, but Castillo’s best estimator is 0.86 runs above Crochet’s worst. CWS +140 F5.
DFS Notes: My only problem with Crochet in the most negative run environment in the league is that he the White Sox haven’t allowed him to surpass six innings since his second start. No matter the pitch count, he’s generally gone after six. The Mariners also strike out a bit less against LHP. I still have him not too far behind Ryan and virtually tied with Castillo, who’s recent struggles to miss bats pushed me more towards the Ryan/Pfaadt combo. Either pitcher should really be fine here and perhaps the White Sox help Castillo rediscover his groove. They’re the bottom offense on the board (2.99) with the Mariners at 3.51 runs. No interest in bats. The top of both pens have been pretty heavily used with Munoz injured and Kopech throwing 83 pitches over the last five games.
Update 5:45 EST: Two top pitchers down. Hancock in for Castillo. Raleigh sits. 14.46% gain with the pitching change on CWS F5.
Rangers @ Dodgers
Michael Lorenzen has allowed five runs over his last 30 innings with a 6.8 K-BB% (7.1% season), .221 BABIP and 92.9 LOB%. On the season, his 3.05 ERA is more than a run and a half below all estimators. Absolution most certainly does not come in the form of pitch modeling with a 4.81 Bot ERA and not a single pitch grade reaching 50 (PB).
Opp wRC+: 120 (128 Home, 163 L7 days) (incl. Wed)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.85
Yoshinobu Yamamoto magically turned into Michael Grove this morning, but overnight Dodger backers were not impressed. A former starter, make no mistake, this is a bullpen game. Grove hasn’t thrown more than 28 pitches in an outing since April. His one game start this season lasted 10 batters.
Opp wRC+: 98 (19.3 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.85
DFS Notes: In the 60s with a slight wind out to right center, the Dodgers still reach 4.92 implied runs with the Rangers at 3.58, which seems a bit low for a bullpen game. Then again, we don’t know who’s going to pitch, so it’s hard to recommend Texas bats outside Seager (177 wRC+, .312 ISO v RHP since last season). Not really telling you much you don’t know today, but that’s’ the way this slate shapes up. Stack your Dodgers, but right-handed Dodgers with Lorenzen’s reverse split (RHBs > .350 wOBA and xwOBA since last year, LHBs < .310). The big three exceed a 160 wRC+ and .220 ISO v RHP since last season. They’re fine for any matchup, but Teoscar (110, .177) and Smith (116, .165) gain value. Due to cost and less hitter friendly weather than other spots, the Dodgers would be my fourth choice among the top stacks. The Dodger pen is pretty clean. They can throw whoever they want. The Rangers threw each of their top three arms in a close win last night with Yates (23) and LeClerc (32) exceeding 20 pitches.
Update 6:20 EST: Barnes in for Smith.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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