I don't know why creating a new folder on One Drive to save my files in seems like it might have worked, but I spent a good portion of the day doing that and reconfiguring connections between sheets. You don't need to be bored by that though. Got 60% through the board tonight and am planning on resuming DFS notes in the afternoon if there are no more unpleasant surprises.
As for Tuesday, gained 3% on lines with Pirates (F5), Royals (F5) and Giants. A push and two losses. This is supposed to be the skill part of the game that leads to profit, yet it's now a season and a half of getting pulverized when I'm far ahead of the line movement. Is there some kind of prize for that or is the prize that you go broke?
The season in a nutshell:
13 unit upswing 4/27 - 5/10
8.5 unit downswing 5/11 - 5/14
10 unit upswing 5/15 - 5/30
12 unit dowsing since 5/31
3-6-2 last 11 gains of 3% or more on the closing line.
2-5-2 on the season on gains of 5% or more.
Is the process wrong? Should I be looking for something else? A season and a half of this (although I didn't keep as specific records last year) is starting to seem like a sizeable sample. From the time I started tracking last season from the break until the end of the season, 8-21-2 on gains of 3% or more.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open @ mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Rockies @ Twins
Austin Gomber has been thumped for eight runs over seven innings since eight innings of one run ball in Oakland. With just a 9.5 K-BB%, his best estimator is a 4.35 xFIP. With decent command, he’s able to turn a 78 Stuff+ grade into a 97 Pitching+ one and 4.17 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.90
Thought Pablo Lopez was back on track when he threw seven one-run innings in Houston two starts back, but he followed it up with his third effort of six runs or more in his last four starts. He’s a bit unfortunate with six home runs and only five barrels, but the 12.2 K-BB% over this span is well below his season rate (20.7%). It should help that the Rockies are the fourth worst offense (-0.61 wFA/C) against fastballs (39.2%, 1.4 RV/100, 56 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 78 (26.1 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.26
Update 12:10 EST: Rain potential. Double digit wind in from right field. Vazquez in for Jeffers.
Blue Jays @ Brewers
Chris Bassitt has allowed just seven runs over his last 30.2 inning in efforts against the Rays, White Sox (2x), Pirates and A’s. Six of those came against the Rays and Pirates in just 10.2 innings. This is a different beast and his only saving grace may be that the Brewers generally only line up four LHBs (.364 wOBA, .350 xwOBA vs Bassitt since last year) against RHPs. With just seven home runs on 16 barrels, all non-FIP estimators exceed four.
Opp wRC+: 117 (123 Home)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.35
Tobias Myers was last seen throwing eight one-hit innings at the Tigers, despite a 5.0 SwStr%. He didn’t miss any bats with his fastball, but a great changeup helped him induce hard contact on just four batted balls without a barrel. That knocks his barrel rate down to 9.2% on the year. Both Bassitt and Myers have a 13.2/13.3 K-BB% and pitch modeling metrics just below average.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.2 K%)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.55
Where is the Toronto advantage that keeps them at pick’em in this game? You want to say it’s Bassitt’s average contact profile? Fine, but even then it’s nowhere near enough to overcome being on the road against a much better offense and bullpen thus far.
Update 12:20 EST: Roof open. 85 degrees. Vlad Jr., Jansen, Turner, Kiermaier out. Dunn in for Hoskins gets MIL to SIX LHBs against Bassitt.
Astros @ Giants
Worms take cover! This is going to be a ground ball affair. That’s where 63.9% of Framber Valdez’s contact has gone, allowing him to generate a 50.3% hard contact rate with just 4.4% Barrels/BBE. Partially because he pitches in the AL West, he’s succeeded against mostly poor offenses this season with a 3.53 ERA that’s within half a run of all estimators.
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: 5
B30: 3.66
Logan Webb has only kept 55.8% of his contact on the ground with a 53.4% hard contact rate, but more impressive 15.2 K-BB%. Still, his xERA is 4.79, 1.4 runs above any other estimator, never mind his 2.92 ERA. This should be a good matchup for Webb’s changeup though (35.6%, 1.4 RV/100, 61 PB grade). The Astros have been the fourth worst offense against changeups (-1.07 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 113 (18.9 K%)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.26
Update 1:40 EST: Astros find a way to get four LHBs in against Webb, who has a slight reverse split since last year. Have a borderline lean towards HOU u3.5 (-125), but Webb has allowed a lot of hard contact this year and the park may play slightly more hitter friendly during the day, when defenses aren't at their sharpest, early mid-week.
Athletics @ Padres
A 12.3 K-BB% over 20.1 innings for Hogan Harris and average contact profile with estimators ranging from a 3.83 xERA to a 4.22 xFIP. He generated 17 whiffs against the Rays in his first actual start of the season and the fastball gets a 65 PitchingBot grade, though just a 6.6 SwStr% against the Jays last time out.
Opp wRC+: 94 (17.7 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.28
Michael King has allowed just two runs over his last 17 innings with an 18.2 K-BB%, increasing his season mark to a comfortable 15.5% to go along with a 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s allowed 13 home runs, but just 15 barrels. All non-FIP estimators are within half a run of his 3.58 ERA. King’s 93 Stuff+ score works up to a 101 Pitching+, while every one of his offerings receives a PitchingBot grade above 50.
Opp wRC+: 93 (26.7 K%)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.32
Update 1:45 EST: Azocar in for Profar. Cameron in for Rooker. I'm a bit tempted to play OAK F5 (+182) with all the money coming in on SD, moving the line in their favor, but it's only been a couple of starts for Harris.
Braves @ Orioles
Spencer Schwellenbach makes his third major league start having struck out nine of 45 Red Sox and Nationals with three walks, a pair of home runs, just one barrel, but a 53.1% hard contact rate. PitchingBot likes the fastball (29.5%, 66 grade) and cutter (20.8%, 63) and a 105 Pitching+ mark improves a 97 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 114 (121 Home, 144 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.88
Cade Povich makes his second major league start, having walked four Blue Jays with just two strikeouts, but two barrels (10.5%) his only two hard hit batted balls. Projections have Povich around four and a quarter runs. The 24 year-old lefty is a strong pitching prospect with a 50 Future Value grade. Fangraphs recently added him to their Top 100. Povich has a 23.4 K-BB% over 56.2 AAA innings. He has had issues with control, but has a 60 FV command grade.
Opp wRC+: 105 (63 L7 days)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.98
Update 4 EST: Upper 70s with a light wind out to left, but Bill Miller is super pitcher friendly. O's going old school with Hays & Urias in for Wesburg and Cowser. Harris leading off against a lefty with Riley dropped to fifth.
Nationals @ Tigers
Jake Irvin has surprised people with a 4.7 BB% driving a 16.7 K-BB% and has thrown eight quality starts in his last 11 without anything too unsustainable surrounding it. There is the fact that just six of 19 barrels have left the park this year, but non-FIP estimators range from 3.56 xFIP to a 4.13 xERA. He’d do well to increase his sinker usage (16.6%, 67 PB grade) against the fifth worst offense in the league against that pitch (-0.74 wSI/C).
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -12.5
B30: 4.08
Reese Olson’s 19.1 K-BB% over his last two starts has increased his season rate to a league average 13.4%. He’s also allowed 13 of his 30 runs on the season over these 9.1 innings, due to a .500 BABIP, but also a 55.9% hard contact rate. What’s been driving Olson’s success this year is a 52.8 GB%. His 3.43 ERA is now within half a run of all estimators, though with below average pitch modeling metrics (93 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+, 4.67 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 2
B30: 4.02
Update 3:50 EST: 80 degrees, but near 10 mph wind in from right. Baddoo adds a fifth LHB against Irvin's wide split. Gallo sits for Meneses, giving the Nats five RHBs. Olson does not have a reverse split.
Cubs @ Rays
Here we have Javier Assad’s 3.71 K/SwStr when nobody else on the board reaches three. Average is just above two. He’s struck out 33 of his last 119 batters with a 6.1 SwStr%. Assad also has an 87 Stuff+ grade without a single PitchingBot grade above 45.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: -8
B30: 3.97
Aaron Civale has recorded just a pair of sixth inning outs over his last nine starts with a league average 13.4 K-BB% and 47.9% hard contact rate. The result is a 4.83 FIP and 4.25 xFIP over this span. Sure, it’s a bit unfortunate that eight of 11 barrels (7.7%) have left the yard, but season numbers that include four strong starts before the skid still have Civale’s worst estimator as a 4.03 dERA, but we seem to be past that point right now.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.02
Update 4:35 EST: Cubs reshuffle lineup, but same players. Going to continue to die on this hill against Assad (3.71 K/SwStr season, 4.55 L30 days). Under 4.5 (+140) DK.
Guardians @ Reds
Tanner Bibee has struck out 28 of his last 99 batters (15.2 SwStr%). It’s not any single pitch that’s doing it, but we noted an excellent PitcherList article that discussed the changing shape of his fastball before his last start when he decided to go 47.4% sliders and just 37.2% fastballs against the Royals. Now with a 19.4 K-BB% on the season, all estimators are within one-third of a run of his 3.73 ERA with strong pitch modeling indicators (102 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 3.29 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 87 (26.5 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 2.98
Nick Lodolo has four quality starts of two runs or less in his nine starts, but has been inconsistent overall, especially on the strikeout front with a pair of double digit efforts early on and then his third highest total of the season with seven against the Cubs last time out. The overall numbers are strong (20.7 K-BB%, 5.7% Barrels/BBE), but an 80.8 LOB% still keeps his 2.92 ERA a bit below estimators ranging from a 2.95 xERA to a 3.55 xFIP and dERA. It’s a bit too early to lean on the contact profile that establishes the lower end of his estimator range. PitchingBot (3.12 ERA, 62 grade four-seam) likes him better than Stuff+ (103 with a 98 Pitching+), but there’s really nothing bad in any of it, just how good can he be? Lodolo has improved his outcomes against RHBs this season (.272 wOBA) with an above average changeup (59 PB grade) and curveball (54 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 118
DEF: -3
B30: 3.28
DFS Notes: An eight game slate includes a pair of domes, one we already know to be closed, the other we never know. Some rain potential in Boston, along with hitter friendly weather in Missouri and this is where three of the top four offenses (via implied run total) will be playing tonight. Almost all my offense on both sites, with the exception of my DK catcher, comes from the state of Missouri tonight. The Yankees top the board by nearly a full run and are the only team exceeding five runs with five more above four and a half. Only five below four runs, including the White Sox, who don’t even reach three. There are some tough pitching decisions to be made tonight.
We start in one of two normally extremely hitter friendly parks on the slate and 80 degrees with little wind certainly keeps it that way in Cincinnati, but quality pitching keeps both teams on the bottom half of the board at exactly four implied runs. It’s a dangerous matchup for a high priced Lodolo. A lineup or two in multi-entry because he does have upside though. I have three arms virtually tied for the top spot tonight and Bibee is one of them. Tons of strikeouts in the Cincinnati lineup, who have done nothing with RHP this year. All three arms are in hitter friendly environments tonight, I flipped a coin and opted for Bibee on FanDuel and as my DK SP1. It could easily be Sanchez or even Gray. I think they, along with Miller, will split ownership tonight. RHBs have a .350 wOBA, but .307 xwOBA against Lodolo since last season. David Fry (196 wRC+, .280 ISO v LHP since last season) is just $3.2K on FD, the only strong value that stands out here among bats. Jose Ramirez (118, .232) is always fine (215 wRC+ L30 days). Kwan (110, .085) has been red hot since returning too (293). Everyone except Diaz threw at least 14 pitches for the Reds last night, though Sims and Cruz below 20 after a couple of off days. Two of the last three for Clase (37).
Update 4:30 EST: Played u5.5 Ks (+114) on FD. Lodolo 8.1, 5.6, 7.4 SwStr% L3 starts. Five of first six batters in CLE order > 17 K% v LHP since last year.
Phillies @ Red Sox
Six quality starts for Cristopher Sanchez in his last 10. None with more than two runs. He’s sustained a 2.71 ERA with a .335 BABIP because 20% of his runs have been unearned and just one of 12 barrels (6%) have become home runs. However, with a league average 13.5 K-BB% and 61.5% of his contact on the ground, non-FIP estimators range from a 3.06 xFIP to a 3.67 xERA. A 94 Stuff+ mark works it’s way up to a 104 Pitching+, while a 3.13 Bot ERA is supported by individual pitch grades that don’t slip below 53.
Opp wRC+: 96 (29 K%) (incl. Tue)
DEF: 2
B30: 2.88
Stuff+ believes Nick Pivetta is the nastiest man in the game with a 139 mark coupled with a 111 Pitching+. The fastball (48%, -0.1 RV/100) and curveball (14.4%, 2.8 RV/100) exceed 60 PitchingBot grades, though both, along with sliders, are pitches the Philadelphia offense has excelled against. Pivetta has at least eight strikeouts in four of his last five starts, including a one-hit, seven inning effort against the Braves last time out. Eight of 11 barrels (11.6%) have left the yard, but those barrels are 29.7% of his hard contact. Supported by a 25.6 K-BB%, estimators only run as high as a 3.52 xERA with contact neutral ones below three.
Opp wRC+: 107 (112 L7 days)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.28
DFS Notes: The other normally extremely hitter friendly environment with temperatures around 70 and a light breeze out towards the monster doesn’t change much. The Red Sox (4.08) and Phillies (4.42) are both middle of the board offenses as well. Sanchez was my coin flip option with Bibee. He lost, but is certainly fine and maybe even a slightly better value at a lower cost, but facing a better offense moved me more towards Bibee. There should certainly be enough strikeouts for him though. Refsnyder (138 wRC+, .102 ISO v LHP since last year) and O’Neill (151, .250) are options here with RHBs owning a .322 wOBA and .327 wOBA against Sanchez since last season. LHBs are below .200. The park and the offense drops Pivetta a bit, but like Lodolo, certainly have some exposure in multi-entry. LHBs have a .316 wOBA and .318 xwOBA against him too since last year, so Schwarber (118, .269) and Harper (147, .218) are fine one offs. Two of the last three for Alvarado (55) and Strahm (41).
Update 4:15 EST: Merrifield in for Sosa, Marchan behind the plate. A crucial part of my reasoning for being a bit lower on Pivetta and Miller that I forgot to explain earlier with so many thoughts running through my head is workload. Pivetta has only faced more than 21 batters once (last start, so perhaps its about building him up), while Miller has maxed out at 25 a few times, but been below 24 BF in half of his starts. Sure, they can snap off a gem just two and a half times through the order, but they have less to work with than other arms with consistently larger workloads.
Marlins @ Mets
Braxton Garrett has allowed at least five runs in three of his five starts, but only a total of one run over his other 14 innings. You immediately want to call it a fluke with a 17.5 K-BB%, 6.2% Barrels/BBE and 58.5 LOB%. He’s only struck out five of 36 batters since going nine innings against Arizona, but this was against the Padres, who just don’t strike out and then with a 17 SwStr% against the Rays. The one glaring issue in his profile is a 48.5% hard contact rate and it’s reached 40% in each start. That said, because of the lack of barrels, his xERA is still just 3.67 with all other estimators even lower. Pitch modeling lies somewhere in the middle with an 89 Stuff+ grade that only improves to a 94 Pitching+. PitchingBot (4.25 Bot ERA) really doesn’t like anything he’s thrown more than 10% of the time much either.
Opp wRC+: 118 (19.5 K%) (incl. Tue)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.44
Despite lighting the minor leagues on fire during his rehab outings, David Peterson returned up less than a mph in his season debut and sitting exactly where he sat last year (around 92.5 mph) in his second. A 52.5 GB%, striking out just five of 50 batters (10.2 SwStr%) with three walks and a 42.5% hard hit rate isn’t showing us anything new in his case. His top three pitches all receive below average PitchingBot grades (4.96 Bot ERA), along with 96 Stuff+ and 91 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 68 (5.7 BB%, 6.4 HR/FB)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.24
DFS Notes: Low 70s with a 10 mph wind out to left should slightly enhance the offensive environment, though it still likely plays a bit negatively. I don’t hate Garrett as an SP2 for $7K, but I’d prefer to go cheaper. The Mets have had success against LHP. I like Peterson more for $6.3K. The Marlins don’t really have the personnel to hit LHP all that hard. They have a 3.41 run total that’s second lowest on the board with the Mets in the middle (4.09). Only four projected Marlins exceed an 83 wRC+ v LHP since last season with the small sample of Dane Myers best at 119. He’s not a bad value in the leadoff spot tonight. Batters from either side are between a .340 and .357 wOBA and xwOBA against Peterson since last year. RHBs have a .319 wOBA and .333 xwOBA against Garrett since last year. With the wind blowing out to left, I’d have some Mets stack exposure in multi-entry. Jose Iglesias (239, .125) is an interesting punt option at 2B. J.D. Martinez (152, .275) and Francisco Lindor (147, .276) are too cheap. Tanner Scott (31) threw two innings last night.
Update 4:50 EST: Pitcher friendly Estabrook solidifies Peterson as my SP2, but forget about those two punt plays above. Iglesias sits. McNeil the only LHB in the NYM lineup, as Bader bats second. At 119, .205, he's your sub for Myers, who is dropped in the order with Lopez batting first. He has a 32 wRC+ v LHP since last year and a 78 wRC+ L30 days. This, I don't get.
Pirates @ Cardinals
Bailey Falter’s 3.69 ERA is supported by a .213 BABIP and single digit K-BB (9.6%). The Dodgers disrupted a string of four quality starts in a row last time out when they barreled him three times (21.4%). Falter doesn’t have a single estimator within a run of his ERA, which is supported by an 85 Stuff+ grade (95 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 80 (19.2 K%, 7.6 HR/FB)
DEF: -13
B30: 4.50
Sonny Gray had no hit the Rockies through four innings in his last start when some bad breaks and a few walks knocked him out of the game in the fifth. He’s now walked seven of his last 43 batters, but still has an amazing 25.2 K-BB% on the season with all estimators below his 3.21 ERA. Along with his 105 Stuff+ and Pitching+ scores, PitchingBot is even more optimistic (2.75) with his cutter, sweeper, sinker and four-seamer all exceeding 60 grades.
Opp wRC+: 82 (24.8 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.70
While the St. Louis bullpen has a significant edge on the Pittsburgh pen, I see the larger gap between the starting pitchers and am therefore on St. Louis F5 (-168), rather than full game. With the low strikeout rate and lack of power, I feel the Cardinals’ numbers against LHP to be a bit fluky.
While the St. Louis bullpen has a significant edge on the Pittsburgh pen, I see the larger gap between the starting pitchers and am therefore on St. Louis F5 (-168), rather than full game. With the low strikeout rate and lack of power, I feel the Cardinals’ numbers against LHP to be a bit fluky.
DFS Notes: It’s 85 degrees with a light wind out to left, enhancing the offensive environment further than Bailey Falter already does for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are third from the top at 4.79 implied runs. I find myself leaning more towards them on DraftKings with Winn (96 wRC+, .162 ISO v LHP since last season) and Goldschmidt (121, .137), but also rostering Gorman (122, .224) in my FD utility spot. LHBs (.386 wOBA, .357 xwOBA) have been better than RHBs against Falter (.309, .341) since last season, which keeps Burleson (76, .122) in play from the second spot. Cards are my third favorite stack tonight. Gray is in that top group with Bibee and Sanchez, but the most expensive of the three. I don’t hate McCutchen (108, .133) or Reynolds (115, .205) in this environment. Cruz (129, .206) costs slightly more. Bot closers exceeded 20 pitches last night, but were well rested.
Update 5 EST: Cardinals have four LHBs, but probably more about necessity than Falter's reverse split. Entire bottom third of PIT order is different than I expected. Only two LHBs, but Gray doesn't have much of a split either way (xwOBA swaps his actual small standard wOBA split since last year). Changes actually increase Gray's strikeouts a bit. I'd push him slightly above Sanchez and Bibee as top overall, but will probably remain with the other two as slightly better values.
Yankees @ Royals
Both of these pitchers are making their fourth start of the season. Cody Poteet has a reasonable 11.5 K-BB% over 15.2 innings, though with just a 7.1 SwStr%. He’s allowed two home runs on four barrels, though three of those barrels were surrendered to the Dodgers last time out when he didn’t allow a run. PitchingBot grades only the sinker (27.6%, 4.6 RV/100, 57 grade) above average, but a 91 Stuff+ score improves to a 102 Pitching+ one. He seems to be a capable swing man type, which is how the Yankees are using him with Cole and Schmidt on the IL.
Opp wRC+: 101 (19 K%) (incl. Tue)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.85
The Mariners harpooned Daniel Lynch for eight runs with a 64.3% hard hit rate last time out. He’s allowed seven barrels on just 49 balls in play and 70 batters faced with just an 8.6 K-BB%. The fastball he throws 44.5% of the time has just a 40 PitchingBot grade, while the Yankees are a top 10 offense against the heat (0.26 wFA/C). Stuff+ and Pitching+ scores of just 73 and 87 respectively are as concerning as the rest of the profile.
Opp wRC+: 105 (120 Road)
DEF: 8
B30: 4.30
DFS Notes: Upper 80s with a double digit wind out to left and the Yankees top the board at 5.77 runs with the Royals fourth best at 4.73. All the Yankees you can afford and then Royals where you can not. I’m jamming Judge (202 wRC+, .407 ISO v LHP since last year) and Stanton (118, .260) everywhere I can. RHBs have a .323 wOBA and .339 xwOBA against Lynch since last year with LHBs .269, but .335, so Soto (142, .197) is fine too. I opted to go with Volpe (120, .190) over Witt (128, .222) and also added Torres (129, .201) on FanDuel. RHBs are at .311 and .422 in a small sample against Poteet with LHBs at .220, but .313. Witt is the top SS if you can afford him, but with Judge and Stanton, I could not. Garcia (78, .079), Loftin (81, .055), Perez (106, .181) and Velasquez (114, .286) are all part of my single entry lineup on one of both sites. It’s more about the environment than anything else here. Though Nick Anderson threw 34 pitches, the top of both pens had the night off in a blowout on Tuesday.
Update 5:30 EST: Carlos Torres behind the plate enhances the offensive environment a bit further. Royals leaning into the Poteet reverse split with seven RHBs.
Angels @ Diamondbacks
Erratic is the best word to describe Jose Soriano’s performance. He’s pushed his walk rate into single digits with a 5.8% rate over his last four starts, but he also has just a 16.5 K% over that span, maintaining a 10.8 K-BB% on the season. He’s also sustained his 45% hard contact rate on the season over this run. A 59.6 GB% is keeping all estimators within one-third of a run of his 3.64 ERA. Pitch modeling doesn’t tell us anything more interesting, except a 41 grade fastball (18.4%, -0.7 RV/100) that he doesn’t want to throw against the Diamondbacks (-0.66 wFA/C leads the league).
Opp wRC+: 96 (107 Home, 134 L7 days) (incl. Tue)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.91
Ten home runs on 14 barrels (10.9%) for Slade Cecconi with just an 11.8 K-BB% registers a 5.76 FIP that nearly meets his 5.66 xERA, but the barrels constitute 30% of his hard contact, pushing his xERA below four. That’s his only estimator below four and a half. However, pitch modeling tells us a completely different story, including a 64 grade fastball (56.5%, -1.1 RV/100) leading a 3.02 Bot ERA and 104 Pitching+ score. I don’t see how with just a 7.7 SwStr% and 47 Z-O-Swing%, but maybe he has more potential than it seems.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 17
B30: 4.31
DFS Notes: A closed roof might make this the second most negative run environment on the slate (always Seattle). Marginal pitching keeps the Diamondbacks at 4.57 implied runs, but the Angels at just 3.93, more due to their recent offensive futility than anything Cecconi has done. Cecconi is a reasonable SP2 option, just not the one I chose, while I’m out on Soriano’s decreasing strikeout rate against a lineup that doesn’t strike out a lot. No LAA bats appeal to me, especially with Taylor Ward being banged up. Just slightly more on the Arizona side of things with the top projected three all above a 110 wRC+ and .190 ISO against RHP since last year, but Soriano actually has a reverse split (RHBs .346 wOBA, .323 xwOBA with LHBs below .300), so perhaps the D’Backs will shake things up tonight.
Update 6:15 EST: Suarez sits. Soriano estimators close to, but under four. D'Backs hit fastballs well, as mentioned above, 107 wRC+ at home & 134 L7 days. Angels not only one of the worst defenses in the league, but only the Rockies have worse estimators L30 days. Playing ARI o4.5 (+105). No Angels LU yet.
White Sox @ Mariners
Do the White Sox have another pitcher on their hands? Jonathan Cannon has struck out 17 of 76 batters with just four walks (17.1 K-BB%) with five barrels (9.1%), two of them leaving the yard. The 23 year-old had just a 10.1 K-BB% over 37.2 AAA innings and 10.7 K-BB% over 48.1 AA innings though. LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him so far.
Opp wRC+: 98 (27.6 K%) (incl. Tue)
DEF: -15
B30: 4.13
The Royals rocked Bryce Miller for seven runs with a 47.4% hard hit rate (48.6% last nine starts). The splitter is successfully neutralizing LHBs for the most part (.292 wOBA), but he’s only thrown it 15.1% of the time over his last eight starts now (20.5% first five). The fastball (44.2%, 0.5 RV/100) does have a 59 PitchingBot grade and the White Sox are the worst fastball hitting team in the league (-0.96 wFA/C). No surprise there, but something is getting hit hard and it appears to be the slider (.445 wOBA, .452 xwOBA) and sweeper (.353 wOBA, .249 xwOBA), though he appears to be a bit unlucky on that latter pitch. Maybe he should ditch the sinker (19.9%, .330 wOBA, .398 xwOBA, 55 PB grade) too? They can’t all be great pitches (all above a 50 PB grade, 2.84 Bot ERA), if he’s getting hit this hard, yet he also posts a 112 Stuff+ mark (103 Pitching+). Estimators are within one-third of a run of his 3.81 ERA (16.7 K-BB%).
Opp wRC+: 78
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.71
DFS Notes: The most negative run environment in the league roof open or closed, I’m assuming a lot of players will be on Miller with the White Sox bringing up the bottom of the board (2.87). I’m going a bit underweight and his splitter the reason against a predominantly right-handed lineup. As stated above, he’s been allowing an excessive amount of hard contact. I could certainly be wrong here though, so you do you. The Mariners have the fifth highest run total (4.63), which certainly tells you what the market thinks of Cannon’s small sample of major league work versus his minor league record. There are certainly enough strikeouts to make him an SP2 option for $6K in the best environment. Cal Raleigh (116 wRC+, .221 ISO v RHP since last year) is the only bat I’ve rostered outside the state of Missouri in single-entry and he was the last player inserted into my DK lineup. Crawford (127, .187) should be a fine value too. LHBs at .514 wOBA, .424 xwOBA against Cannon so far with RHBs below .280. Munoz came back for one outing and seems to be injured again, while Stanek (41) is off two in a row, so perhaps that even helps push Miller further. Kopech was off last night, but threw 61 pitches two of the three days before with Brebbia (47) working three of the last four.
Update 6:20 EST: No Robert takes some of (or a lot of) the hard hit out of the CWS lineup. A few pitchers have gained during this last run through, making pitching decisions even more difficult. Garver in for Haniger.
Rangers @ Dodgers
MLB.com is still not listing Jon Gray here. He returned from a short IL stint to strike out four of nine Giants in relief on Saturday. The 17.2 K-BB% is impressive, though all non-FIP estimators (two home runs, 12 barrels) are at least a run and a third above his 2.12 ERA, while pitch modeling is not on board at all. PitchingBot sees everything Gray throws as below average, including his slider (45.6%, 2 RV/100, 46 PB grade). His 83 Stuff+ grade works up to a 98 Pitching+. LHBs exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Gray since last year. He can’t just keep throwing sliders and fastballs (41.7%, 0.1 RV/100, 43 PB grade). He’s not that good and the Dodgers are top third of the league against both offerings, including third best against sliders (0.45 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 121 (129 Home, 168 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.97
Walker Buehler has allowed exactly three earned runs in five of his six starts, but has only faced one even decent offense (Padres). PitchingBot grades all five pitches he throws more than 10% of the time at 50 or better with a 99 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+, so it appears he’s been a bit unfortunate and you can see it in his home runs. He’s allowed seven, but just five barrels (5.7% with a 34.5% hard contact rate). The 15.3 K-BB% is fine, but not what you eventually want from Buehler, especially the lackluster 7.5 SwStr%, but his 4.82 ERA is at least three-quarters of a run above all non-FIP estimators.
Opp wRC+: 98 (19.6 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.68
DFS Notes: In the 60s with a light wind out to center, the Dodgers are the second team on the board (4.88) with the Rangers third from the bottom (3.62). I’m certainly not trusting Buehler here, even at $8K. Maybe one or two multi-entry just in case, but I’m also going to say the same about the Texas lineup, especially Seager (176 wRC+, .308 ISO v RHP since last year) in his homecoming. LHBs have an absurd .443 wOBA, but .312 xwOBA against Buehler this year, but RHBs are at .314 and .343. The Dodgers are only my fourth favorite offense here, due to the environment in other spots, but that really extends to LHBs too. Gray has a nearly 40 point split with both wOBA and xwOBA and it’s not a surprise for a guy going fastball/slider nearly 90% of the time. Ohtani (198, .365) has been slumping and may be playing through injury, but only really needs one leg to be average. Freeman (165, .224) and Heyward (119, .195) are other noteworthy lefties, though Teoscar (111, .178) and Mookie (162, .230) are fine here too.
Update 6:35 EST: No TEX LU yet, but Buehler has only beat tonight's K prop against the Rockies & Reds. Not a lot of strikeouts generally for the Rangers. Biggo immediately slots in ninth to add a fifth LHB against Gray. Will probably be an All-Star in a Dodger uniform.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
Add comment
Comments