No, I did not get very far tonight. In fact, I came very close to skipping the entire day. I've been working with Microsoft support all day on still unresolved One Drive issues on the same day Fangraphs decides to unveil new player pages with some kinks in the early going. Also have a few teams who haven't confirmed a starter for Tuesday yet (attrition is hitting pitching staffs hard) with the potential for three making their first major league start (two their debut). Still have half the board to go, but here's something. Better than nothing.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal,.
Braves @ Orioles
Max Fried looked down at the work he had done. He saw few walks (7.6%) and lots of weak (30.5% hard contact rate, 4.6% Barrels/BBE) ground balls (61.2%). It made him happy, so then he said, let there be strikeouts. And there were. Punching out 28 of his last 85 batters, the strikeout rate is up to 23.1% with a 14.5 SwStr% over this span. All estimators are within half a run of his 2.93 ERA. At least seven innings in six of his last eight.
Opp wRC+: 131 (120 Home, 147 L7 days)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.88
Albert Suarez has yet to complete six innings, but has only allowed more than two runs just once in six starts. Including his bullpen work, a 14.0 K-BB% and 3.6% Barrels/BBE are comparable with Fried’s work, though nearly half the ground ball rate (36.4%), Suarez has contact neutral estimators around four with an xERA a full run lower. Pitch modeling is not impressed with the pure stuff (87 Stuff+). PitchingBot only exceeds a 47 grade on his changeup (17.3%, 3.4 RV/100, 65 PB grade). Literally, all of his other pitches have exactly a 47 grade. It’s enough to post a 98 Pitching+ and 4.08 Bot ERA with command factored in.
Opp wRC+: 100 (63, 17.4 K-BB% L7 days)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.98
Seems odd to say, but the O’s have a pretty large offensive edge on the Braves here and Suarez may be able to keep it close enough that it, along with their defensive edge, may matter. I’ll certainly take the red hot O’s as a home dog here (+122) and even considered bumping up to a unit and a half.
Update 3:15 EST: Continue to run great. I back the O's, Gunner sits against a lefty with a reverse platoon. Still gained 1.68%.
Nationals @ Tigers
Mitchell Parker most recently struck out just two Braves, but allowed only three hits and two runs over seven innings. Not what they used to be, but still impressive. All estimators below four.
Opp wRC+: 82 (52 L7 days)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 4.08
Kenta Maeda left his last start after two pitches (abdomen). His best estimator is a 4.70 SIERA. The fastball is a meatball (26.3%, -2.8 RV/100, .473 wOBA, .457 xwOBA, 37 PB grade), but the Nationals don’t hit those (-0.46 wFA/C is seventh worst).
Opp wRC+: 93 (87 Road)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.02
Update 3:40 EST: Near double digit wind in from center.
Cubs @ Rays
Jameson Taillon has been hammered for 21 runs (16 earned) over his last 25.1 innings. A 3.67 xERA (5.5% Barrels/BBE) is the closest estimator to his 3.47 ERA and the only one below four. LHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year with RHBs below .290. This three best graded secondaries (sweeper, curveball, cutter) are pitches the Rays have trouble hitting.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: -12
B30: 3.97
Zach Eflin has one quality start over his last six, but retains estimators below his 4.14 ERA (and below four) with a 1.5% walk rate. However, his best graded secondaries (cutter, curve) are pitches the Cubs hit well.
Opp wRC+: 98 (9.9 BB%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.02
Guardians @ Reds
Triston McKenzie has struck out 21 of his last 75 batters with eight home runs, just seven barrels, but that’s still 15.6% of his contact, with a 46.7% hard contact rate. On the season, McKenzie has a 13.1 BB% with 11.4% Barrels/BBE and all estimators are more than half a run above his 4.16 ERA (.247 BABIP, 82.6 LOB%). All pitch grades (PB) are below 40 to go along with a 5.99 Bot ERA and 92 Pitching+ score.
Opp wRC+: 87 (26.5%) (Incl. Mon)
DEF: 3
B30: 2.98
Nick Martinez is expected to be the most significant part of a bullpen effort against the Guardians and considering the way they normally construct their lineup, I would be more than a bit surprised if it didn’t start with a LHP. (And it’s Suter.) Martinez has a 17.6 K%, but has walked just 2.8% of batters with an exceptional contact profile (3.0% Barrels/BBE, 30.1% hard hit rate), posting a 2.95 xERA and 3.15 FIP that are well below his 4.13 ERA,, which is in line with contact neutral estimators. Martinez has also traditionally pitched much better in relief than in a starting role, but this is a bulk role, so who knows? The cutter (20.5%, 64 PB grade) could be a weapon against the Guardians (-0.9 wFC/C is fourth worst MLB).
Opp wRC+: 103 (18.6 K%)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.28
Update 3:30 EST: Jim Wolf leans pitcher friendly.
Phillies @ Red Sox
Four straight quality starts for Zach Wheeler (27.1 IP – 5 R) and six with at least seven innings this year. With a .238 BABIP, all estimators, even contact inclusive ones (34.2% hard hit rate), are more than half a run above a 2.23 ERA (20.3 K-BB%) with contact neutral ones above three. The 8.2 BB% is his highest since 2017 and he’s been below six percent since the pandemic. Pitch modeling is in line with estimators (103 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+, 2.78 Bot ERA). LHBs have a .313 wOBA and .316 xwOBA against him since last season.
Opp wRC+: 102 (126 L7 days)
DEF: 1
B30: 2.94
Kutter Crawford has allowed 22 runs (20 earned) over his last 28 innings. Regression can be a bitch sometimes, though we don’t expect it to smack this hard. Crawford has a 13.1 K-BB% over this span that’s just two points below his 15.1% rate on the season. His hard hit rate remains around league average and below 40% over this span too. The biggest difference? A 52.3% strand rate. What are you going to do? Contact neutral estimators are half a run above his 3.51 ERA, while xERA (3.64) and FIP (3.42) are in line. Crawford has similar Stuff+ (107) and Pitching+ (105) grades to Wheeler.
Opp wRC+: 107 (20.2 K%)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.36
Small gaps between offense and defense, while we’re talking about the best and sixth best pen estimators in the league over the last 30 days. The biggest gap is starting pitcher and while Wheeler has a significant edge, I don’t think it’s enough to make the Phillies, off their trip to London, this big a road favorite in Boston (+140).
Update 3:55 EST: Yoshida back, O'Neill out. Castellanos bats second with Realmuto out. A 1.43% gain on BOS ML.
Marlins @ Mets
Perhaps I got a bit enamored with the upside of both of these pitchers in previous starts and failed to remember what it looks like when either or both lose their command and how often it has happened in the past. In fact, both have below average pitch modeling metrics when command is included. Jesus Luzardo was hammered by the Rays for nine runs last time out and has struck out just six of his last 49 batters with four walks and barrels (10.3%) with a 48.7% hard contact rate. He’s down a 14.7 K-BB% on the season, which isn’t much better than average, allowing 10.6% Barrels/BBE. That said, a 4.45 xERA is still well below Luazrdo’s 5.30 ERA (61.5 LOB%) with contact neutral estimators even half a run lower than that. Pitch modeling suggests the same. An average pitcher is not so bad, even if we had higher hopes for Luzardo.
Opp wRC+: 121 (19.2 K%) (Incl. Mon)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.61
Tylor Megill walked three Nationals, struck out four, allowing five runs (four earned) and looked like the 2023 version of Tylor Megill. He did this with a 6.9 SwStr% because batters refused to chase his poorly placed secondaries (21.2 O-Swing%). Perhaps we’ll still have to live with the downs, which would be okay if there are still going to be games like the one he pitched against the Dodgers. Four starts in, Megill has a 16.1 K-BB%, having allowed seven barrels (three last start). Estimators are all over the place, while a 109 Stuff+ score drops to a 95 Pitching+. PitchingBot grades only the fastball (52.4%, 51 grade) above 40 when command is factored in.
Opp wRC+: 88 (74 Road)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.40
Update 3:45 EST: Alvarez back. Line movement towards Mets.
Rockies @ Twins
Five more shutout innings on three hits for Cal Quantrill and his splitter (35%, 2.9 RV/100, 48 PB grade) in St Louis, but he also walked four with a single strikeout after walking two Dodgers with a single strikeout in his previous effort. Down to a 7.0 K-BB%, solid contact management posts a 3.99 xERA that’s nearly half a run above Quantrill’s 3.58 ERA, but half a run below all other estimators. He just doesn’t have the stuff to strand 79.3% of his runners (94 Stuff+ & Pitching+, 4.69 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 100 (Incl. Mon)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.90
Louie Varland allowed eight barrels (13.8%) with a 50% hard contact rate and 10.3 K-BB% before his last April demotion. He has since posted a 16.5 K-BB% over 40.2 AAA innings with 60% of his contact on the ground. Some Minnesota beat writers have expressed surprised at his recall, due to poor performance (5.31 ERA) at AAA.
Opp wRC+: 78 (26.1 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.26
Update 3 EST: Near 80 degrees w/ 10 mph out to CF, playing MIN o4.5 (-122) again.
Pirates @ Cardinals
A 29.9 K-BB% over his first five major league starts. What do you need to say? The fewer than 60% that have put the ball in play have a 43.5% hard contact rate, but that’s not enough to be a concern yet. He’s been above 90 pitches in four straight starts too. Skenes throws three pitches more than 18% of the time:
Four-seam: 41.4%, 0.3 RV/100, 61 PB grade, STL -0.68 wFA/C is third worst
Spiitter/Splinker: 32%, 5.1 RV/100, 66 PB grade, STL -0.42 wFS/C is bottom half of the league
Slider: 18.9%, -3.6 RV/100, 62 PB grade, STL -0.34 wSL/C is bottom half of the league
Skenes has a 113 Stuff+ score and 111 Pitching+
Opp wRC+: 104 (102 Home)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 4.50
Miles Mikolas still doesn’t walk anybody (4.7%) and strikes out even fewer now (17.8 K%, 6.9 SwStr%, 91.6 Z-Contact%), but no longer manages contact well (8.4% Barrels/BBE, 42.3% hard hit rate). Estimators range from a 3.98 xFIP to a 4.57 xERA with a 90 Stuff+ grade, but 101 Pitching+ and 3.67 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 82
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.70
One guy below three and another guy above four and the first guy is just a -120 road favorite F5? I just showed you what the Cardinals do against the elite pitches he throws too.
Update 4 EST: Massive 7.86% gain on PIT F5.
Yankees @ Royals
Marcus Stroman has struck out just two batters in each of his last two starts. The difference is that two barrels left the yard last time out and he allowed five runs to the Twins instead of the single earned run the Giants managed against him. With an 8.4 K-BB% (8.4 SwStr%, 92.7 Z-Contact%) and not even half his contact on the ground this year (48.4% & 37% last four starts), Stroman has estimators all more than a run and a quarter above his 3.04 ERA. Pitch modeling is even worse (95 Stuff+, 94 Pitching+, 4.89). The slurve that he throws 13.1% of the time is the only pitch reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 101 (19 K%, 115 Home)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.04
Brady Singer has allowed 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 19.2 innings and his BABIP over this span is an lol .397. The contact profile is getting borderline concerning with a 45.3% hard hit rate over his last five starts, but still below 40% on the year with a 16.6 K-BB% on the year that’s almost double Stroman’s with a higher ground ball rate (51.4%). Pitch modeling numbers are similar (87 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+, 4.23 Bot ERA), though Singer does have a 52 grade sinker (40.2%, 1.9 RV/100) that he’s elevating a bit this year to some success.
Opp wRC+: 128 (10.6 K-BB%, 16.5 HR/FB)
DEF: 8
B30: 4.37
Singer has twice the K-BB% and a higher ground ball rate, yet is a home dog here. I have F5 and full game for a slightly better price valued the same, but went F5 so I don’t have to deal with who’s available in each pen, extra-innings.
Update 5:25 EST: A 3.6% gain on KC F5.
Blue Jays @ Brewers
After being smacked around for five earned runs in Detroit and then at home against the Pirates, of course Yusei Kikuchi allows a single run to the Orioles with six strikeouts. In fairness, his velocity averages were 94, 95 and 95.9 mph in these three starts, as his SwStr rose from 3.6% to 13.5% to 23.6%. Averaging 95.5 mph on the season, Kikuchi has an 18.7 K-BB% with all non-FIP estimators within one-fifth of a run of his 3.48 ERA. His top of the arsenal curveball (27.6%, 0.8 RV/100, 66 PB grade) matches up well with the Brewers (-0.12 wCU/C), the only pitch they really have a negative run value against.
Opp wRC+: 93 (123 Home) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.35
The March prospect report on Carlos F. Rodriguez (Fangraphs) gave him a 40 Future Value grade and a 19th organizational ranking and a back end starter projection. The changeup already has a 60 grade (FG) and is the main weapon in his arsenal, which could make him a reverse platoon type with the potential for the slider to be above average too. Over 62.2 AAA innings this year, Carl-Rod has just a 13.8 K-BB%, while major projection systems project him a bit closer to five than four and a half on average.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.2 K%)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.55
Update 4:45 EST: Roof open. Just below 70 degrees. Turner sits for TOR.
Angels @ Diamondbacks
Jose Suarez has thrown 31.2 innings, all in relief, but has thrown more than 50 innings three times since the start of May. He’s walked 13.5% of batters faced (9.5 K-BB%) with estimators ranging from a 4.13 xERA to a 4.73 FIP well below a 6.54 ERA (60.7 LOB%). Pitch modeling illustrates below average grades in relief, which probably declines further in a starting role.
Opp wRC+: 120 (19.8 K%) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.64
By his own words, Jordan Montgomery is out there throwing batting practice sinkers (33.9%, -3.3 RV/100, .442 wOBA, .391 xwOBA, 44 PB grade on the year), allowing 14 runs over his last six innings to the Mets and Giants, walking six of 41 batters with five strikeouts. With just a 13.8 K%, his best estimator is now a 4.64 xFIP. RHBs have a .325 wOBA and .331 xwOBA against him since last year. Even an elite defense has been unable to save him.
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: 17
B30: 4.40
Update 5:50 EST: Roof closed. Perdomo back.
Athletics @ Padres
J.P. Sears has dropped his four-seam rate over five points to 26% over his last five starts, the results being a 10.4 K-BB% that matches his 10.7% season rate, but a drop in hard contact rate (33.3% last five vs 39.8% season). The best of these starts may have been last time out against the Mariners with just three hits and eight strikeouts. With a .239 BABIP, estimators ranging from a 4.13 xERA to a 4.85 dERA exceed his 3.93 ERA. PitchingBot really likes Sears (3.43 Bot ERA) with the changeup (49) his only below average graded pitch. This should be a real challenge for him.
Opp wRC+: 94 (17.7 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.28
Randy Vasquez is another pitch modeling favorite (107 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+, 3.74 Bot ERA), but it hasn’t come close to matching actual results via either ERA (5.40) or estimators (4.35 dERA – 5.43 xERA). He doesn’t walk anybody (3.4%), but doesn’t miss bats either (14.3 K%). LHBs exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Both of his quality starts, including last time out, came with three runs allowed in fewer than seven innings.
Opp wRC+: 93 (26.7 K%)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.32
White Sox @ Mariners
Twenty-three year-old Drew Thorpe was the sixth ranked Chicago prospect with a 50 Future Value grade in a January Fangraphs scouting report. Part of trades for Soto and Cease, Thorpe already has above average command and an elite changeup (another reverse split?), which usually projects a high floor. Projection systems are a bit below four and a half on average with a 17.4 K-BB% over 60 AA innings this year. Thorpe will reach the majors without having pitched in AAA.
Opp wRC+: 98 (27.6 K%)
DEF: -15
B30: 4.02
Bryan Woo has now allowed a run over his last 12 innings, striking out eight of 40 batters without a walk. In fact, he hasn’t walked a batter since his second start. He was up to 67.1% fastballs in his last start (Oakland), though 53.2% on the year and it’s not going to hurt to load up on that pitch (56 PB grade) against the White Sox either (-0.94 wFA/C is worst in the league). Woo has also allowed just a pair of barrels (both in Washington). A 2.08 xERA is still a run above his 1.07 ERA. A .165 BABIP, 85.2 LOB% and 2.4 HR/FB are all completely unsustainable, though I don’t think he reaches the worst of his estimators range at a 4.00 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 79 (78 Road)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.93
Update 5:55 EST: It appears as if Woo has been scratched and Jonathan Diaz (LHP) will start.
Astros @ Giants
Ronel Blanco has allowed eight runs over his last 10.1 innings, striking out eight of 44 batters with five walks. Down to a below league average now 12.4 K-BB% on the year, there’s nothing supporting his 2.78 ERA with a 3.52 xERA (35.1% hard contact) his only estimator below four. The .201 BABIP and 84.8 LOB% are completely unsustainable and pitch modeling confirms estimators with below average Stuff+ (96) and Pitching+ (97) marks with a BotERA (4.11) above four too.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.66
While Jordan Hicks also has a 12.9 K-BB% and a higher 42.2% hard contact rate than Blanco, he compliments it with a 54.2 GB% that’s 15 points higher and better pitch modeling numbers, which include a 110 Stuff+ grade, 101 Pitching+ and 3.74 Bot ERA. While Hicks also has estimators a run above his 2.89 ERA (four unearned runs), none of his reach four.
Opp wRC+: 113 (18.8 K%)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.26
Houston has the offensive edge, even with Tucker out, but one pitcher has one estimator below four, while the other has none reaching that mark. Give me the home team (-104) with the better pen too.
Update 6:05 EST: No lineups, but a 3.15% gain on SFG.
Rangers @ Dodgers
Do I have to?
Less than 10 hours to game start and the Rangers still haven’t confirmed a starting pitcher, though it’s thought to be Dane Dunning, who has an impressive 26.9 K% this season, but a 10.8% walk rate and 14% Barrels/BBE with a 48.8% hard hit rate. Contact neutral estimators are within one-third of a run of his 4.09 ERA with a FIP (5.00) and xERA (5.25) much higher. LHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. He’s gone eight starts without completing six innings and four without recording a sixth inning out. With an 85 Stuff+ score and 94 Pitching+, Dunning doesn’t have a single pitch above a 47 PB grade (sinker).
Opp wRC+: 117 (123 Home)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.70
It’s all finally falling apart for James Paxton with 15 runs over his last 15.1 innings. With a 1.3 K-BB%, all estimators are still more than a run above his 4.19 ERA. He hasn’t completed five innings in three straight starts and has atrocious pitch modeling stats (74 Stuff+, 89 Pitching+, 5.04 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.74
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
=VLOOKUP(B9,Main!E:Y,19,FALSE)
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