The hair loss did not come from the games I expected it to come from on Wednesday, but occurred none the less. Three one unit plays, all F5. The Orioles took an early 2-0 lead, but pushed. The Mets & Nats scored a total of two runs through five, losing o5.5, but went on to put up six runs in the top of the sixth. Lastly, a split of the games that gained more than five percent on the closing line, winning the half unit on Pittsburgh, but losing to the Angels with Dylan Cease. Still below .500 on those large gainers (more than four percent).
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Orioles @ Blue Jays
The rumor is that Cade Povich might make his debut here. The 24 year-old lefty is a strong pitching prospect with a 50 Future Value grade. Fangraphs recently added him to their Top 100. Povich has a 23.4 K-BB% over 56.2 AAA innings. He has had issues with control, but has a 60 FV command grade. Projections average out barely above four.
Opp wRC+: 94 (8.1 K-BB%, 7.0 HR/FB)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.51
Yusei Kikuchi’s velocity dropped to 94 mph two starts back in Detroit. He allowed five runs in just three innings without striking out a single batter. Back up to 95 mph last time out, he struck out just four of 25 Pirates and allowed six runs (five earned) over 5.1 innings. The biggest difference was a 10 point increase in his swinging strike rate in the second start. Even with these two outings, Kikuchi sustains an 18.4 K-BB% and maintains non-FIP estimators all below, but within one-third of a run of his 3.66 ERA. The reason for the FIP below three is that only six of 18 barrels (9.0%) have led to home runs. Pitch modeling really likes Kikuchi (108 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+, 2.80 Bot ERA with a 67 grade fastball and 65 grade slider).
Opp wRC+: 134 (16.6 HR/FB)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.25
Royals @ Guardians
Only three times this season has Brady Singer allowed more than a single earned run. While that comes with an 83.8 LOB%, he has generated 50.9% of his contact on the ground with an impressive 17.6 K-BB%. Singer has a poor 90.1 Z-Contact%, but the elevated sinker is enabling an elite 20.1 CStr%, which allows him to sustain a 25% strikeout rate with just a 10.0 SwStr%. He has below average pitch metrics, including an 87 Stuff+ grade, 95 Pitching+ and 4.23 Bot ERA with that sinker (40.9%, 2.2 RV/100) his only above average pitch (52 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.1 K%) (incl. Tue)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.61
PitcherList recently wrote a great article on the decline of Tanner Bibee’s fastball this year. Not so much velocity, but in shape. There’s been some improvement in recent starts and as a result, he’s struck out 21 of his last 75 batters (14.5 SwStr%). With an 18.9 K-BB%, all estimators are within a quarter run of his 3.74 ERA with strong pitch modeling indicators (102 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 3.17 Bot ERA, 65 grade changeup).
Opp wRC+: 99 (19 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.02
Mariners @ Athletics
Bryan Woo’s velocity dropped further last time up, following up a single strikeout with just two. He did throw six shutout innings, but it was also the Angels. A 4.4 SwStr% last two starts.
Opp wRC+: 99 (26.5 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.57
J.P. Sears has allowed at least four runs six times this year, as well as every other start for his last seven. The good news is that he’s allowed a run or less in alternating starts and that’s what’s up next. In all seriousness, all estimators are above his 4.01 ERA, though pitch modeling is encouraging with a 3.39 Bot ERA and 62 grade sweeper (31.3%, 2 RV/100. The Mariners are the third worst offense in baseball against sliders (-0.66 wSL/C). Unfortunately, it’s not a true bat missing pitch for Sears (18.2 Whiff%), which accounts for his 16.3 K%.
Opp wRC+: 98 (25.6 K%
DEF: -8
B30: 3.88
Dodgers @ Pirates
Walker Buehler tied his season high with seven strikeouts against the Rockies, but also more than doubled his walk total with four. His velocity is in line with his last two active seasons, but Buehler isn’t really elevating his fastball. In fact, he’s not really throwing it anywhere consistently. A solid 16.2 K-BB% with just a 33.3% hard contact rate (5.6% Barrels/BBE) through five starts with marginal pitch indicators (99 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 3.99 Bot ERA). There’s still some work to do.
Opp wRC+: 80 (86 Home, 70 L7 days)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.63
While Bailey Falter has five quality starts, three of at least seven innings, over his last seven, he’s done so with just a 10.1 K-BB%, 9.2% Barrels/BBE and 47.7% hard hit rate over that span. Season estimators are all more than a run and a quarter above his 3.22 ERA and pitch modeling is not a fan with 84 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 129 (18.5 K%)
DEF: -12
B30: 4.37
DFS Notes: A large for a Thursday seven game slate does not feature a single dome with conditions almost universally hitter friendly, aside from the late game. No significant weather issues either. A pair of teams reach five implied runs with nearly half the slate above four and a half and only four below four.
We start with the top offense on the board with the Dodgers (5.25) and the Pirates (3.75) third from the bottom. Mid-70s with a near double digit wind out to left. I believe Bailey Falter to be one of the worst pitching values on the board and Walker Buehler may not be too far behind. He’s not there yet. Who even knows if he ever gets there? Maybe one or two lineups in multi entry. Andrew McCutchen (109 wRC+, .139 ISO v RHP since LY) has a 132 wRC+ over the last 30 days. RHBs have a .300 wOBA against Falter since last year, LHBs .380, but Statcast closes that gap to .339 and .350. Ohtani (134, .235) is the top bat on the board. Mookie (180, .303) is the top shortstop. Freddie (150, .220) and Will (159, .257) are tops at their position too. Kike is the only projected Dodger below a 99 wRC+ against southpaws since last season. He, Pages and Rojas the only ones below a .200 ISO. Big win for the Pirates last night, but Bednar (23), Holderman (19) and Chapman (46) have all worked consecutive days.
Update 4:30 EST: Barnes in for Smith.
Braves @ Nationals
Reynaldo Lopez struck out eight of 24 A’s with a 16.1 SwStr% last time out, but is working with an 82.8 LOB%, while just two of his 10 barrels (6.6%) have left the yard. His 15.5 K-BB% is above league average with estimators running as high as a 3.85 SIERA and all non-FIP ones nearly two runs above his 1.73 ERA. Lopez also has below average pitch modeling numbers with a 96 Stuff+ grade and 4.20 Bot ERA. Expect regression to come for his 82.7 LOB% and 3.6 HR/FB.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.75
Mitchell Parker only has three quality starts, but has not allowed more than three runs in a start yet. His 15.3 K-BB% is virtually the same as his opponent’s with more contact on the ground (47.3%) and similar contact management as well. If fact, they have nearly the same estimators with Parker’s only reaching as high as a 3.72 SIERA. The difference is that Parker is stranding runners at a reasonably sustainable rate (74%), while five of his 11 barrels have left the yard. Pitch modeling is very similar too. Both have a Bot ERA just above four with below average Stuff+ scores, but nearly average Pitching+ ones.
Opp wRC+: 112
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.90
I don’t see the gap between Lopez and Mitchell being large enough for this line (+156) in Washington. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a light wind out to center. The Braves are third from the top (4.99) with the Nationals fifth from the bottom (4.01). I think Lopez is sufficiently priced above $9K, while Parker may be a decent value just above $7K. The Braves are not as fearsome this year and he’s pitched well. Albies (163 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Ozuna (167, .315) are my top bats from this game, but I would consider going under-weight on Braves tonight. There are certainly plenty of situations to attack.
Update 4:40 EST: Meneses in for Roasrio. Anderson in for Kelenic. A 3.68% gain on WAS ML.
Twins @ Yankees
Pablo Lopez recovered from a two start stumble, allowing just a single run over seven innings in Houston, striking out six of 28 batters. His 17.2 SwStr% was Lopez’s highest mark since Opening Day and he got 12 whiffs with his four-seamer. Only half of Lopez’s starts have been quality starts, despite an elite 23.1 K-BB%. All non-FIP estimators are at least a run and three quarters lower than his 4.84 ERA with a 67.5% strand rate and 12 of 15 barrels (7.9%) leaving the park. Perhaps not as much as last season, but pitch modeling is still pretty darn high on Lopez. Or at least the command of his arsenal with a 104 Pitching+ score and 3.17 Bot ERA. Let’s try this again and see if it sticks. Lopez has a strong changeup (19.4%, -1.9 RV/100, 59 PB grade). This is the only pitch the Yankees are below average against (-0.33 wCH/C). As a matter of fact, they’re bottom third of the league.
Opp wRC+: 129 (10.2 K-BB%, 16.8 HR/FB)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.15
Marcus Stroman is on a four start quality start streak with just three runs over 26.2 innings, over which he has an 8.2 K-BB%, 41.9 GB%, .176 BABIP, 92.2 LOB% and just one of his five barrels has left the park. Giving him credit for being a solid contact manager this year, more so than in the past, the ground ball rate is going in the wrong direction and he had just a 9.1 K-BB% on the season. All estimators are at least one and one-third of a run above his 2.73 ERA (that means none below four) and it seems that the better his results, the worst his pitch modeling indicators. Stroman has matching 95 Stuff+ and Pitching+ scores with a 4.79 Bot ERA with only his slurve (12.9%, 0.3 RV/100, 53 PB grade) above a 47 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 11
B30: 3.88
DFS Notes: Temps near 80 with a light wind out to left center. The Yankees are middle of the board (4.56) with the Twins fourth from the bottom (3.94). You’re paying more than $8K for BABIP with Stroman. His upside is six or seven strikeouts? Tough spot, but Lopez is good enough to have some value here for less than $9K. I have him a bit ahead of the other Lopez as the third or fourth best pitcher on the board. Larnach (113 wRC+, .206 ISO v RHP since LY) may be a decent value. Miranda (.147) is the only projected batter below a .165 ISO against RHP since last year. Judge (182, .350) and Soto (174, .281) are always fine. Lopez has a standard split, but RHBs are below .275. Judge is just that good. The good thing about Minnesota never beating the Yankees is that the top of their pen is rested, but so are the Yankees.
Update 5 EST: Cabrera & Grisham in for LeMahieu & Verdugo. Lewis & Jeffers out for MIN. Added small play on MIN at +130.
Cubs @ Reds
Javier Assad has struck out 26 of his last 92 batters…with a 5.7 SwStr%, while also walking 12. He has one single game above a 9.0 SwStr% all season, but has a 23.2 K%. That’s just not possible with a 6.2 SwStr% (3.74 K/SwStr) even with the BEST CStr% (his is 19.3%). There’s just absolutely no way he can sustain estimators ranging from a 3.70 xERA to a 4.10 SIERA, never mind his 2.27 ERA (85.8 LOB%). This might be the most fortunate pitcher I’ve ever seen and there are several of them on this board. It’s confirmed by pitch modeling, which registers an 88 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ with a single PItchingBot graded pitch above 44.
Opp wRC+: 85 (26.7 K%)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.68
We can consider giving Hunter Greene a mulligan for walking five Cubs on a rainy night at Wrigley under hitter friendly conditions otherwise. But it’s the fourth time that he’s walked at least four this season. A 10.2 BB% is now the worst of his career with a career low 25.9 K% too. The upside is that he’s cut his barrel rate in half (4.5%). It’s not the pitches that have changed, but the shape of the ones he was already throwing. The fastball is dropping less and the slider is, well, sliding more. And batters are making worse contact, as illustrated the 18 infield flies he’s generated, already matching a career high. Estimators range from a 2.86 xERA more than half a run below Greene’s 3.44 ERA to a 4.22 xFIP more than three-quarters of a run above with the reduced 15.7 K-BB%. Whether it’s strikeouts or weak contact, Stuff+ (125) still loves what this man Is throwing and PitchingBot loves the fastball (57.2%, 1.1 RV/100, 59 grade). The Cubs are a bottom third of the league offense against fastballs (-0.3 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.18
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a 10 mph wind out to left in the already most power friendly park in the world. This is your top hitting spot, but I’m still comfortable using a pitcher here and his name is certainly not Assad, who I consider to be the worst pitching value on the board. How is he compiling his strikeouts? Time clock violations? The Cubs (4.56) are middle of the board, the Reds just above and fourth from the top (4.94). I have Greene essentially tied with Lopez as either the third or fourth best arm on the board, but certainly a better value on DK for $1.7K less. Six projected are above a 23.5 K% v RHP since last year for the Cubs with moderate power. I’m willing to trust Greene’s newfound contact management here. I may end up sorry. I think Friedl (104 wRC+, .190 ISO v RHP since LY) is a great value for the Reds. Statcast brings LHBs up to a .327 xwOBA and RHBs to a .317 xwOBA against Assad since last year. Back to back days for Neris (37) and Wesneski (29). Also for Cruz (21).
Update 5:10 EST: PCA in, Busch out. Added Assad u4.5 Ks (+120). That SwStr% just can't support that strikeout rate, even with an above average CStr%. Also added CIN o4.5 (-122) for partially the same reason, along with park, weather & their 157 team wRC+ L30 days.
Rockies @ Cardinals
After quality starts in eight of nine for Cal Quantrill, only above three runs in the first one, I had to finally look into what he was doing. Quantrill even has a 19.7 K-BB% over the last five, bringing his season rate up to…exactly 10%. He’s was generating over half his contact on the ground (51.3%) over this quality start run with a perfectly average contact profile in terms of authority. What’s going on here? Spiltters (34.4%) three times as often as last year. The pitch had a 28.3% whiff rate, 3.1 RV/100 and 51 PB grade. It’s not the greatest pitch of all time, but it’s the best one he throws more than 10% of the time and has made him a respectable pitcher. Estimators ranging from a 3.86 dERA to a 4.39 FIP are all above his 3.53 ERA (79.6 LOB%), but this is what we call an Ace in Colorado.
That is the gist of what I wrote before he faced the Dodgers. He struck out one batter and allowed four runs in less than five innings. So much for that idea. He’s also facing the fourth best offense against sinkers tonight (0.64 wSL/C) and Quantrill throws his 39.8% of the time (-2 RV/100, .475 wOBA, .408 xwOBA, 39 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 107 (104 Home, 109 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.79
Sonny Gray has allowed 18 runs (16 earned) over his last 26.2 innings to drive his ERA up to an even three. He also has a 25.0 K-BB% over this span that’s just two points less than his season mark. The key numbers are nine of his 12 barrels (8.8%) over this span and a 60.7 LOB%. He’s also faced the Phillies, Orioles and Brewers. A 3.04 xERA is Gray’s only estimator above his 3.00 ERA and this is a strong matchup for him according to pitch modeling (105 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 2.52 Bot ERA). Gray has a 64 grade cutter (14.6%, 1.2 RV/100). The Rockies are the third worst offense in the league against cutters (-1.1 wFC/C). Gray has an even better fastball (22.7%, -2.5 RV/100, 70 grade). The Rockies are only seventh worst against those (-0.42 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 79 (26.1 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.93
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a double digit wind blowing out towards the right field pole. The Cardinals (4.54) are middle of the board with the Rockies (2.96) pulling up the rear. Sonny Gray is my top pitcher on the board and one of the top values too. I was able to roster both he and Greene on DK. The way I did that was stacking Cardinals. Quantrill has shown he’s still vulnerable against good offenses and the Cardinals have been that over the last month. Even Goldy (113 wRC+, .173 ISO v RHP since LY) is up to 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days. LHBs (.349 wOBA, .358 xwOBA) are a bit better than RHBs (.314, .337) against Quantrill since last year. Gorman (121, .254) is my top Cardinal bat. Burleson (105, .167) and Donovan (117, .153) top values. Herrera (116, .092) might be the value catcher tonight too. All four + Winn exceed a 115 wRC+ L30 days. Romero (51) and Kitteridge (44) three of the last four days. The entire top end of the Colorado pen is either off back to back days or above 20 pitches last night.
Update 5:25 EST: Donovan loses value dropping to sixth, Winn gains leading off. With hitter friendly weather, above average offense and COL worst pen L30 days, played STL o4.5 (+110).
Red Sox @ White Sox
It’s 10 quality starts for Tanner Houck in 12 tries, while he’s faced at least 25 batters nine times. Not only is he neutralizing LHBs with his new splitter (24%, 1.7 RV/100, 50 grade), but Houck is becoming a workhorse for this rotation, crushing RHBs with his slider (42%, 2.8 RV/100, 66 PB grade) and dropping estimators no worse than a 3.35 xERA with a 19.3 K-BB% and 4.2% Barrels/BBE). Pitch modeling loves seeing Houck doing his thing (108 Stuff+ & Pitching+, 2.90 Bot ERA). His other pitch, the sinker, isn’t too bad either (30.4%, -0.2 RV/100, 57 PB grade). The White Sox are the worst offense in the league against sliders (-1.33 wSL/C) and fifth worst against sinkers (-0.79 wSI/C).
Opp wRC+: 75 (76 Home)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.38
Jake Woodford struck out four of 20 Blue Jays in his first start with an 8.1 SwStr% and 64.3% hard hit rate. Over 189 career innings, he has just a 7.2 K-BB% with a 42.6% hard contact rate. He has an 11.7 K-BB% over 49.2 AAA innings this year.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -10
B30: 4.37
DFS Notes: Only 70 degrees, but a near 20 mph wind out to center. The White Sox remain second from the bottom (3.29) with the Red Sox (5.21) below only the Dodgers. Considering conditions and that the White Sox are more don’t score than strike out a ton has me more Gray than Houck tonight. He’s still my second best arm and probably a solid value. If I had the extra salary on DK, I’d pay for him ahead of Greene. The Red Sox are my primary stack to go with the Cardinals secondary above. Duran (128 wRC+, .215 ISO v RHP since last year), Valdez (100, .207), if batting second again, and Devers (141, .267) are three of the top bats on the board, all above a 120 wRC+ L30 days. Refsnyder (82, .100) and O’Neill (94, .187) are fine too. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .320 wOBA against Woodford in his career. Back to back days for Brebia (30). Boston pen is well rested.
Update 5:35 EST: DeLoach leads off.
Diamondbacks @ Padres
Slade Cecconi has allowed exactly six runs in three of his seven appearances, but a combined five runs over his other four. His 12.1 K-BB% is nearly league average, as is his 36.3% hard contact rate, but he’s still allowed 10.6% Barrels/BBE with a 44.6 Z-O-Swing%. The main problem is that nine of 12 barrels have left the yard, producing a 5.70 FIP that’s very much in line with a 5.59 ERA. All other estimators are more than half a run lower, including a 3.70 xERA. Cecconi has somehow combined a .212 BABIP with a 63.4 LOB% with all those home runs. Pitch modeling favors the command with a 103 Pitching+ score and 3.04 Bot ERA. It’s funny that by run value (1.4 RV/100) the slider is Cecconi’s only positive pitch, but by PB grading, it’s his only one below average (48).
Opp wRC+: 119 (19 K%)
DEF: 16
B30: 3.88
Randy Vasquez probably doesn’t deserve his 5.74 ERA either. His K-BB is just 10.8%, but you can argue he’s due to increase his 15% strikeout rate with a 9.5 SwStr%. He also has the worst Z-O-Swing on the board (46.4%), which is part of the reason for a 5.39 xERA that’s Vasquez’s only estimator not below five. Much like Cecconi, pitch modeling is optimistic, starting with 107 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+ grades. PitchingBot also offers grades above 50 on all three pitches he throws more than 12% of the time.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.49
DFS Notes: Coolest spot on the board with temps in the mid-60s without wind that matters in already the most negative run environment on the board. The contact prone nature of the San Diego lineup doesn’t leave Cecconi with much value. The Diamondbacks are the same to a lesser degree. If you’re looking to punt SP2 for Dodgers or whatever, I don’t hate Vasquez here. Both the D’Backs (4.14) and Padres (4.36) are bottom half of the board offenses tonight. The top three for the D’Backs all exceed a 110 wRC+ and .190 ISO v RHP since last year, while LHBs have a .392 wOBA and .420 xwOBA against Vasquez since last year. The reason I don’t mind him is that nearly the entire rest of the Arizona lineup is likely to be right-handed (unless they sneak in the suddenly hot Pavin Smith). Batters from either side are between a .314 and .324 wOBA and xwOBA against Cecconi career, leaving me not interest in San Diego bats under these conditions.
Update 5:55 EST: Pavin Smith is in, but for the LH McCarthy. Machado & Campusano out, Wade & Higashioka in.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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