Only a few more to get to in the morning. However, this may be my last publication for awhile. I've identified several games below that will probably make me want to quit.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Braves @ Red Sox
Spencer Schwellenbach struck out five of 22 Nationals (11.4 SwStr%) with a walk, home run, barrel and 46.7% hard hit rate. He had thrown just 13 innings above A ball (36.4 K-BB% in AA) and projects for an ERA around four on average. This, from the only thing I could find written about him on Fangraphs in February…
“Schwellenbach was a college two-way player (shortstop and closer) whose pro career was delayed by a TJ and sidetracked in 2023 by a shoulder issue. He sits in the mid-90s, has a plus slider, and is a healthy season and a more consistent changeup away from profiling as a mid-rotation type.”
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.80
Nick Pivetta has struck out three or fewer in three of his seven starts, but eight or more in each of the other four, including nine of 21 Tigers last time out. The four-seamer/sweeper approach really works best for him and that fastball (49.1%) currently has a 68 PitchingBot grade. Important because the four-seamer is one of only two pitches (splitter being the other) that the Braves struggle against (-0.22 wFA/C is just outside the bottom third of the league). Eight of Pivetta’s 11 barrels (12.1%) have left the park this year, which is a bit unfortunate, but also a lot of barrels. A 3.96 xERA meshes well with Pivetta’s 4.08 ERA, but all other estimators are lower (25 K-BB%). The pitch modeling for Pivetta is just insane. It includes a 142 Stuff+ that is 11 points ahead of Jared Jones, who leads the league among qualified pitchers. His 111 Pitching+ score is just a point behind Jones’s lead as well.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: -4
B30: 3.37
Where talking about a potentially volatile pitcher and a virtually unknown one. I’ll take my chances with the latter at nearly even money as at home (-106) without any major Atlanta edges. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 12:25 EST: Hittin weather in Boston (80s w/ double digit wind out to left center). O'Neill back, Wong out. No movement (0.46% gain) on BOS ML.
Cardinals @ Astros
Blanco only has a quarter run estimator edge on Mikolas and the Astros only have a seven point wRC+ edge against RHP. Both pitchers have below average pitch modeling metrics.
Opp wRC+: 113/106
DEF: -1/4
B30: 3.89/3.62
Update 12:35 EST: Tucker remains out. Winn sits.
Reds @ Rockies
Graham Ashcracft has a 112 Stuff+ score with a 53 graded slider (PB) that really makes you wonder what he’s doing with a 17.9 K%. He’s allowed 17 runs over his last 24 innings and all estimators are within half a run of his 4.76 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 81 (25.9 K%)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.37
Dakota Hudson has allowed three runs over his last 13 innings against the Dodgers and Phillies. Sell high. All non-FIP estimators exceed h is 5.02 ERA (0.8 K-BB%) with just an 86 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 85 (26.8 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.77
Update 12:45 EST: 90 degrees, 10 mph wind in from left. Bryant remains out.
Giants @ Diamondbacks
Jordan Hicks can pop a big K game, but generally sits around four of five per start. His 12.8 K-BB% is more palatable with a 53.3 GB%. Still, the Giants have only let him go beyond five innings just once over his last nine starts. They can afford to do that with the third best bullpen estimators in the league over the last 30 days. A 111 Stuff+ grade is more about the way he’s able to keep most his contact on the ground. Estimators more than a run above his 2.70 ERA are still all below four.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.10
Jordan Montgomery called his fastball batting practice last time out and his season PitchingBot scores of 37 and 44 on his four-seam (14.9%) and sinker (33%) seem to agree. Even with the Mets running a 50% hard contact rate against him in that start, he still has allowed just 5.3% Barrels/BBE this year. He’ll need to improve on a 14.4 K%, but a 10.0 SwStr% suggests that’s very probable, even if adjustments are needed.
Opp wRC+: 108 (63 L7 days)
DEF: 13
B30: 3.80
Update 1:20 EST: Roof closed. No SFG LU yet. ARI has complied with our wishes, sitting Marte, Moreno and Walker. Gain of 3.36% on SFG ML & half a run on the Under.
Mets @ Nationals
Luis Severino has a 106 Stuff+ grade and 61 grade sinker (20.1%, 1.7 RV/100). Talking heads are elated that he’s pitching to contact this year (20 K%, 10 K-BB%, 51.1 GB%) and it’s starting to bite him with 16 ERs over his last 29 innings with just a 5.5 K-BB% and 46.4 GB%.
Opp wRC+: 94 (94 Home)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.27
Patrick Corbin has a 58 grade cutter (16.7%, -1.2 RV/100). Everything else is 46 or lower with a 79 Stuff+ grade. With just a 13.8 K% and 48.1% hard contact rate, all estimators are above four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 109 (117 Road)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 4.05
Update 1:30 EST: Temps near 80 w/ near 10 mph out to left. Could be a delayed start, but played o5.5 (+104) F5, adding weather to the above information.
Brewers @ Phillies
Andy Ashby is projected to make his second start of the season. The first one did not go well (3.2 IP – 8 R – 4 ER – 2 BB – 2 K – 58 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 118
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.63
Aaron Nola has faced at least 24 batters in eight of his last nine with five outings of seven innings or more. For once, his 3.03 ERA is a half run below all estimators. Nola’s curveball (32%, 1.6 RV/100, 70 PB grade) matches up well with the Brewers (-0.48 wCU/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 119
DEF: -1
B30: 3.03
Update 1:40 EST: Rain could cut this game short. Hitter's weather (around 80 w/ near 10 mph wind out to left), but slightly pitcher friendly umpire. Realmuto sits day game.
Royals @ Guardians
Only three times this season has Brady Singer allowed more than a single earned run. While that comes with an 83.8 LOB%, he has generated 50.9% of his contact on the ground with an impressive 17.6 K-BB%. Singer has a poor 90.1 Z-Contact%, but the elevated sinker is enabling an elite 20.1 CStr%, which allows him to sustain a 25% strikeout rate with just a 10.0 SwStr%. He has below average pitch metrics, including an 87 Stuff+ grade, 95 Pitching+ and 4.23 Bot ERA with that sinker (40.9%, 2.2 RV/100) his only above average pitch (52 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.1 K%) (incl. Tue)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.61
Logan Allen is likely to work behind Nick Sandlin. He has a pair of seven run outings over his last five, but also a pair of six inning shutout starts. The overall numbers are not very pretty. A 12.0 K-BB% is nearly league average, but with a 9.4 SwStr%, a 44.2 Z-O-Swing% that’s second worst on the board and 47% hard hit rate. A bit unfortunate that 12 of 18 barrels (9.7%) have left the yard, Allen still has an xERA (4.95) nearing five, but still nearly a run below his 5.83 ERA with contact neutral estimators in the low to mid-fours. As far as pitch modeling goes, Allen adds a below average sweeper (17.4%, -2.1 RV/100, 38 PB grade) and changeup (17.5%, 0.6 RV/100, 45 PB grade) to a 79 Stuff+ score. The Royals are a top third of the league offense against both pitches.
Opp wRC+: 109 (19 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.02
DFS Notes: A nine game Wednesday slate includes three protected environments with one or two potential rain spots and mostly minor weather effects otherwise. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley, the Cubs are the only team to reach five implied runs, the Yankees the only other team above four and a half with seven teams below four. I believe there’s a clear top pitcher on this board, who we should be building around, with at least a couple of interesting SP2 options.
We start in the spot with the most rain concern, which could shorten the game. Temps otherwise in the 70s with a double digit wind out to center, making the park likely play more neutrally than normal. We didn’t need the weather concern to avoid pitchers in this game. Batters from either side of the plate are within seven points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Allen, but with the opener, I’m pretty much avoiding Royals here. Witt (127 wRC+, .235 ISO v LHP since LY) is fine, but not my favorite SS tonight. LHBs have a .338 wOBA and .356 xwOBA against Singer since last year. Steven Kwan (115, .120) is a strong outfield value, who has a 220 wRC+ L30 days. Ramirez (210) and Fry (247) are above the 200 mark over that span too, both also exceeding a 120 wRC+ against RHP since last year also. The Guardians are upper middle of the board at 4.42 implied runs with the Royals middle bottom (4.08). Clase threw 20 pitches last night, but should be available again.
Update 3:25 EST: CLE going with an ALL LH LU. KC doesn't look like they're setup for Allen to follow an Opener. Three LHBs.
Update 4:55 EST: PPD. 8 game slate.
Dodgers @ Pirates
James Paxton was pulled after three innings and 50 pitches in a planned abbreviated start that nobody knew about. He struck out three of 12 Mets…good, right? With a 2.0 SwStr%. Paxton has an atrocious 1.4 K-BB% despite not walking anyone in three of his last four starts. In comparison, the contact profile (8.2% Barrels/BBE, 40.3% hard contact rate) is fine. A 5.22 xERA is Paxton’s only estimator within two runs of his 3.29 ERA. His pitch metrics feature a 39 grade curveball (25.6%, 0.1 RV/100) and 44 grade four-seam fastball (62.5%, 0.7 RV/100), along with a 73 Stuff+ score.
Opp wRC+: 102 (25.5 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.63
Paul Skenes has struck out 30 of his first 84 batters with a 16.4 SwStr%, just five walks and three barrels (6.3%). Estimators are all within half a run of his 2.45 ERA. Both the four-seam (38.9%, 1.6 RV/100, 63) and whatever he calls his splitter (34.9%, 5 RV/100, 67) are elite graded pitches (PB), along with a 113 Stuff+ score (112 Pitching+). The Dodgers are actually bottom half of the league against fastballs (-0.11 wFA/C). The only pitch we can say that about.
Opp wRC+: 117 (117 Road, 133 L7 days)
DEF: -12
B30: 4.34
This is the game that is going to make me pull hair out and take the rest of the month off, but Pittsburgh F5 (-115).
DFS Notes: A bit less of a late rain risk, temps in the 70s with a near double digit wind in from right, both teams sit middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs. Skenes is fine around $9K. I’d have some exposure in multi entry for sure, but the workload concerns along with the tough matchup have my single entry lineups looking elsewhere. This is a rare spot that I’m really not interested in any Dodger bats. The same goes for Pittsburgh bats, as they’ll likely be seeing a lot of the Dodger pen, though certainly sprinkle some in multi-entry, just in case Paxton loses his luck box. Chapman threw 20 pitches on Tuesday.
Update 3:30 EST: Taylor in the 9 spot for Dodgers does increase strikeout expectations for Skenes, but I only project 0.3 more with just 2 PAs. It's not nothing and brings his value in line with Gilbert for me on DK and a bit ahead of him on FD. Large 5.69% gain on PIT F5. 7-8-1 on the year on gains above 4%, 3-4 on gains above 5%. Far from a sure thing.
Rays @ Marlins
Zach Eflin retains tremendous pitch modeling numbers, with all four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time graded 58 or better (PB), including a sinker (34%, -1.1 RV/100, 60 PB grade) that the Marlins could struggle against (-0.62 wSI/C is bottom quarter of the league). Eflin’s actual results are a bit more marginal than last season. He’s not walking anybody (1.6%) with two of his four walks coming in his first two starts, but with just a 17.9 K%. Estimators ranging from a 3.54 xERA to a 3.94 dERA are still below his 4.12 ERA. Eflin only has a single quality start in his last five.
Opp wRC+: 91 (91 Home) (incl. Tue)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.75
Braxton Garrett followed up his shutout in Arizona with six innings of one run ball in San Diego with just two strikeouts and a 3.4 SwStr%, but that’s probably more about the San Diego lineup than him. Through four starts, Garrett’s 4.56 ERA is more than a run above all estimators, despite a 49.3% hard contact rate with a strong 18.2 K-BB%. Garrett’s pitch modeling metrics are closer to his ERA than his estimators (88 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+, 4.09 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 106 (123 L7 days)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.59
DFS Notes: Neutral run environment, but power dampener with the roof closed, the Rays are just under four implied runs (3.95), while the Marlins hold up the bottom of the board (3.55). Eflin is my SP2 of choice for $7.5K in a strong spot and I don’t even hate him on FD, but realize he doesn’t seem to have last year’s upside. I’m lukewarm on Garrett within $400 of $8K on either site. No Miami bats on my radar, but RHBs have a .316 wOBA and .333 xwOBA against Garrett since last year. I like Yandy (173 wRC+, .249 ISO v LHP since LY) as a top 1B play on this board and Randy (170, .192) and Harold (153, .137) as strong OF values, especially on FD. Scott threw 23 pitches last night and two of the last three for Fairbanks (29).
Update 3:50 EST: Burger sits for Brujan. Gets a fifth LHB in. Eflin has a small reverse split. Rays add three LHBs (Lowes & Rortvedt). Garrett does not have a reverse split, so that's a bit befuddling.
Twins @ Yankees
Chris Paddack has allowed four or more runs in four of his 11 starts, but no more than two in any of the other seven. He allows too many barrels (10.6%), while the strikeouts are hit or miss with the potential for more (20.3 K%, 10.7 SwStr%), but he doesn’t walk many (4.5%) and that’s the key to estimators ranging from a 3.89 SIERA to a 4.35 FIP, all below his 4.57 ERA. The most interesting aspect of this matchup is in the pitch modeling. Paddack has just an 89 Stuff+ grade, but 105 Pitching+, but more specifically a great fastball (41.6% 1,2 RV/100, 60 PB grade) and elite changeup (27.8%, -0.8 RV/100, 72 PB grade). The one pitch the Yankees are below average against? They have the seventh worst weighted run value against changeups (-0.28 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 130 (10.4 K-BB%, 16.9 HR/FB)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.21
Carlos Rodon has seven quality starts in his last 10 tries and while he has a 17.1 K-BB% over this span (15.1% on the year), key numbers here are a .245 BABIP and 81.8 LOB% (85.3% on the year). In fact, with the 9.4% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed a 4.08 SIERA is Rodon’s only estimator not more than a run above his 3.09 ERA and they range as high as a 4.85 dERA. Again, looking at pitch modeling, Rodon has a startling 119 Stuff+, but just a 102 Pitching+. The star of his arsenal is no doubt the fastball (54.8%, 1.7 RV/100, 62 PB grade), but he’ll be facing the top fastball hitting team in the league (0.64 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 11
B30: 3.86
The Yankees have all the edges here, but aside from offense, they’re all small, yet they’re a large favorite. I’ve elected full game (+160) over F5 due to the better price. This game will likely have me pulling out whatever hair I have left after the fifth inning in Pittsburgh.
DFS Notes: Temps in the 70s with a near 10 mph wind that appears to be blowing in from right, but could easily change direction just a bit to move across the field. As mentioned, the Yankees (4.84) are one of just two offenses above four and a half runs with the Twins (3.66) close to the bottom of the board. I’ve already noted that I favor the Twins on the moneyline at last night’s price and think Paddack can be a decent upside, high risk SP2 for less than $7K, but not the direction I went. Rodon is also fine at $8.4K, but probably sufficiently priced on FD. That said, there aren’t any major Minnesota standouts for me, while Judge (182 wRC+, .348 ISO v RHP since last year) and Soto (174, .282) remain top bats. LHBs have a .331 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against Paddack since last year. RHBs have a .345 wOBA, but .311 xwOBA.
Update 5:30 EST: Vanover leans slightly hitter friendly. 1.54% gain on MIN.
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Albert Saurez has a league average 14 K-BB% with just 10 of his 34.1 innings out of the bullpen. He’s also only allowed four barrels (4.2%) and while a 1.57 ERA is unsustainable (.242 BABIP, 83.3 LOB%, 2.6 HR/FB), estimators only run as high as a 4.10 dERA. Suarez has just an 88 Stuff+ grade, but league average marks in Pitching+ (98) and Bot ERA (4.15).
Opp wRC+: 101 (19.5 K%)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.53
Jose Berrios has only failed to post a quality start twice all season, but with just a 13.7 K-BB% and 43.6% hard contact rate, an 87.3 LOB% is doing most of the heavy lifting. All estimators are more than a run above his 2.78 ERA. His pitch modeling grades are only slightly better than his counterpart with a 92 Stuff+ grade (100 Pitching+) and 3.88 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 107 (20 K%)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.07
DFS Notes: Run factor according to Statcast moves from 96 to 102 with the roof open, so watch for that news. The Blue Jays are middle of the board at 4.11 runs with the Orioles (3.89) closer to the bottom. Suarez is actually $200 cheaper on FanDuel. Not enough strikeouts in the Toronto lineup to play him on DK tonight. Berrios is sufficiently priced at the least. I lack interest in Toronto bats with Suarez holding RHBs to a .231 wOBA and .262 xwOBA (another reason to favor Baltimore tonight). Gunnar Henderson (147 wRC+, .292 ISO v RHP since last year) is top SS tonight (LHBs .314 wOBA, .322 xwOBA against Berrios since last season). The Toronto pen is a bit short again with Romero hitting the IL.
Update 5:20 EST: A 3.7% gain on BAL F5. Unfortunately, "Is the Dome Open" is really slacking on roof info this week.
Tigers @ Rangers
Kenta Maeda has allowed 10.7% Barrels/BBE with just a 17.1 K%. He’s served up at least five earned runs in four of his nine starts and though his 6.25 ERA is more than a run above all non-FIP estimators (10 home runs on 14 barrels), all are still above four and a half. The splitter is still fine (29.7%, -1.1 RV/100, 53 PB grade), but not so much the fastball he throws to set it up (26.3%, -2.8 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .450, 37 PB grade). Maeda’s 4.62 Bot ERA is still better than all his other estimators.
Opp wRC+: 101 (19.6 K%) (incl. Tue)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.71
A 51.1 GB%, but still 8.9% Barrels/BBE for Jose Urena over five starts, including seven (14.6%) over his last three. Just a 7.1 K-BB% in a starting role produces a 3.24 ERA/4.85 FIP/4.34 xFIP line with an 88 Stuff+ grade and 4.74 Bot ERA suggest there’s very little left in the tank. RHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Urena since last year.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 6
B30: 4.37
DFS Notes: A positive run environment with the roof closed (104) turns even more so (114) when it rarely opens. The Tigers sit middle of the board at 4.01 implied runs with the Rangers third from the top (4.49). With RHBs above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Urena since last year and LHBs above .320 too, Matt Vierling (109 wRC+, .171 ISO v RHP since last year) may be the top value at 3B if back in the leadoff spot. Riley Greene (135, .199) is the top overall bat in the lineup. Corey Seager (176, .308) is a top bat on this board and you certainly want some Texas stack exposure against Maeda, who is actually worse against RHBs (.343 wOBA, .330 xwOBA) since last season. The Detroit bullpen is banged up and has been worked a bit this week, though nobody in particular stands out.
White Sox @ Cubs
Erick Fedde has struck out 14 of his last 52 batters against impressive Baltimore and Milwaukee offenses, but with just a 6.9 SwStr% and seven walks. His 22.8 K% on the season is unlikely to be sustainable with a 7.8 SwStr% and league average called strike rate. This would increase Fedde’s estimators ranging from a 3.41 dERA to a 3.78 SIERA even further away from his 3.12 ERA (81 LOB%). Pitch modeling doesn’t add or subtract anything from the equation.
Opp wRC+: 97 (119 L7 days) (incl. Tue)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.37
After a hot start, Jameson Taillon has allowed 16 runs (11 earned) over his last 20.1 inning with a mere 13.8 K% and 43.2% hard contact rate. With just 5.4% Barrels/BBE on the season, a 3.54 xERA is still more than half a run above Taillon’s 2.84 ERA, but with a now single digit 9.0 K-BB%, additional estimators all exceed four. Six of his 20 runs have been unearned. The good news is that Taillon can attack the White Sox with an elite sweeper (14.8%, 1.4 RV/100, 67 PB grade), as Chicago is the worst offense in baseball against sliders (-1.33 wSL/C). Taillon has good enough command that his 89 Stuff+ score turns into a 104 Pitching+ grade and 3.56 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 75 (73 Road)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.68
DFS Notes: Temps in the 70s with a 10 mph wind out to right puts the Cubs on top of the board (5.25), but the White Sox are still the White Sox (3.75). Fedde might be the worst value on this board for more than $8K and Taillon sufficiently priced, considering conditions at Wrigley. The White Sox are more a don’t score offense than strike out a ton one. With LHBs smoking Taillon for a .360 wOBA and .370 xwOBA since last season, I think Lopez (80 wRC+, .071 ISO v RHP since last year) and Sheets (90, .147) are reasonable values/punts, if needed. Ian Happ (125, .187) is my top Cubs value with Suzuki (124, .205) and Bellinger (119, .207) looking strong too. Fedde really doesn’t have much of a split.
Update 5:40 EST: Carapazza slight pitcher lean. Tauchman back at the top of the lineup. PCA sits.
Padres @ Angels
Dylan Cease has allowed 15 runs over 21.2 innings with four home runs on six barrels (9.2%), but also a 22.7 K-BB% that fits his season mark (23.4%). The .377 BABIP over this span has run his season mark only up to .251, yet he somehow only has a 64.9 LOB%. Sequencing gives him a 3.46 ERA that’s above all of his estimators with only two of his other 12 barrels leaving the yard. You can call these last four starts a heavy dose of regression for a pitcher legitimately having a career year. Pitch modeling absolutely adores what Cease is throwing (121 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 3.35 Bot ERA). He’s still basically throwing two pitches, but a 58 grade slider (42.3%, 0.6 RV/100) and 56 grade fastball (42.9%, 0.8 RV/100) are getting it done and the Angels don’t like fastballs (-0.21 wFA/C is bottom half of the league).
Opp wRC+: 88 (38 L7 days)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.45
It’s hit or miss with Jose Soriano, allowing exactly four runs for the fourth time in his last seven starts (just one combined over the other three). His 11.4 K-BB% over this span fits his 11.8% season rate, but striking out three Mariners last time should be an automatic demotion to the minor leagues. Jose Soriano has estimators nearly all within one-third of a run of his 3.86 ERA without any reaching four, due to a 57.7 GB%, but now he faces the toughest team to strike out in the league. Nothing stands out in his pitch modeling. It’s all very average.
Opp wRC+: 119 (18.9 K%)
DEF: -11
B30: 4.27
Both pitchers have struggled in recent outings, but Cease is more a matter of sequencing and has estimators more than half a run better, while these two offenses are going in different directions. I’m choosing the better F5 line (-135) over the bullpen edge here.
DFS Notes: Temps near 70 with a light wind out to center in a run neutral, but power friendly environment. The Angels are down to an 88 wRC+ against RHP and 37 wRC+ over the last seven days and recent struggles, due mostly to strand rate, are keeping Cease’s price around $10K, despite other factors suggesting a career year in a great spot. He’s my unquestioned top pitcher tonight and a strong value. The downside is that I expect him to be popular. The Angels are tied with the Marlins for the lowest run total on the board (3.55) with the Padres fourth from the top (4.45). Soriano is volatile, which can occasionally mean upside, but I don’t think there’s enough of it against this offense. My interest in bats here lies in Tatis (115 wRC+, .188 ISO v RHP since last year) as a top OF bat with Soriano holding a reverse split (RHBs .343 wOBA, .326 xwOBA) and Arraez (143, .116) as a strong FD value. Garcia (64) and Moore (58) have thrown three of the last five days.
Update 6:45 EST: No SDP LU. Gain of 5.79% on F5. Two nice gains and two giant gains today. Let's see how they do.
Mariners @ Athletics
Logan Gilbert has allowed 19 runs over his last 120 innings with just a 17.5 K%. The good news is that he still has a 13.1 SwStr% over this span, so that should turn around, as should a 61% strand rate. Looking at the larger picture, Gilbert has posted a 17.2 K-BB% on the season with estimators ranging from a 3.24 dERA to a 3.63 FIP all within about one-third of a run of his ERA. Gilbert has a 121 Stuff+ score, but appears to lack great command, despite the 6.7% walk rate. I say this because of his 102 Pitching+ grade and none of his offerings receiving a PitchingBot grade higher than 55. Good, but not great.
Opp wRC+: 99 (26.5 K%, 115 Home)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.48
Joey Estes is still working eight earned runs allowed in Houston off his 6.10 ERA. With as many walks as strikeouts (four), it was a poor start, but he’s struck out 16 with just two walks around it, resulting in a 16.1 K-BB% that’s just a point below Gilbert’s mark. He’s also only allowed four barrels, three of them in his first start. Estimators are a bit all over the place, from a 3.44 xERA to a 5.74 dERA, but his 107 Pitching+ score is better than Gilbert’s and includes a 65 grade slider (17%), which is a pitch the Mariners have struggled with (-0.6 wSL/C is fifth worst in baseball).
Opp wRC+: 95 (28.5 K%)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.87
The good news is that I won’t have any hair left to pull out by the time the A’s (+136) lose.
DFS Notes: Oakland has played more neutrally in recent seasons, assisted by temps in the low 70s with a light wind out to left tonight. My hope is that Gilbert will take away some of Cease’s ownership. He’s my second best arm on the board, quite a bit behind Cease, a bit ahead of Skenes and Rodon, certainly playable in a high upside spot. The A’s are essentially tied for the bottom spot (3.56) with the Mariners fifth from the top (4.44). While I don’t have much interest in Oakland bats, I think there’s justification for exposure to either side of the other matchup. Estes would be the next pitcher in line for me, if I dropped below Eflin in an SP2 spot. There’s a top of upside in this Seattle lineup for him and he’s shown skills far better than his ERA through four starts. That said, LHBs do own a .420 wOBA and .390 xwOBA against him so far. Crawford (126 wRC+, .185 ISO v RHP since LY) and Raleigh (115, .221) are top values at their position tonight. Nearly the entire Seattle bullpen pitched last night, only Thornton exceeding 20 pitches, Stanek (39) three of the last five and Munoz leaving with a leg injury on a play at the plate.
Update 6:35 EST: No movement on OAK ML. A's leaning into Gilbert's reverse split with 7 RHBs.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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