It's nearly midnight on Monday night as I write this and I've still only gotten through nine games, despite going shorter on the five not on the main daily fantasy slate tonight. Had to do a bit of researching on some pitchers with four TBD as I started. It also seems DraftKings didn't want to post F5 lines for Tuesday's games tonight. Hoping the Giants and D'Backs can stay under 9 (tied at 2 in the 9th) to limit the damage on a rough day that included some quality pitchers getting hammered, but the knuckleballer Matt Waldon pitching well again. Or at least as well as higher priced pitchers like Rodriguez and Skubal. Meanwhile both Megill and Gore were surprisingly ineffective in Washington. Going to try to be better on Tuesday.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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Royals @ Guardians
Seth Lugo’s strikeout binge has come to an end with just eight of his last 56 batters (7.8 SwStr%). A 15.3 K-BB% on the season (9.1 SwStr%) with all estimators below four.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.1 K%)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.53
Triston McKenzie struck out nine of 24 Rockies at Coors, but also allowed four runs in just five innings. He’s allowed eight home runs on 13 barrels (14.3%) over his last six starts. A 4.60 xERA is still his best estimator. PitchingBot gives him a 6.01 ERA with all pitch grades below 40.
Opp wRC+: 98 (18.8 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 2.95
Update 3:40 EST: Warm with wind blowing in though. Some bottom half changes for both teams.
Dodgers @ Pirates
Tyler Glasnow has struck out at least eight in seven of nine (36.4 K%). He has five outings of at least seven innings with two runs or less over that span.
Opp wRC+: 81
DEF: 5
B30: 3.63
Jared Jones tasted adversity for the first time in his major league career when the Tigers tagged him for seven runs, five earned (4.8 SwStr%). The strikeouts have decreased, but he still has a 23 K-BB% and that was only his second outing of the season below a 14 SwStr%. His 131 Stuff+ and 112 Pitching+ scores are still best among qualifiers.
Opp wRC+: 117 (188 Road, 133 L7 days)
DEF: -12
B30: 4.32
Update 3:50 EST: Temps around 80 with a light wind in from center. Henry Davis is back.
Rays @ Marlins
Ryan Pepiot was much better in his second start back from the IL, striking out seven of 21 A’s over 5.2 innings of three hit, two run ball with a single walk. Pepiot has 19.4 K-BB% and tremendous pitch modeling grades (118 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+), including a 60 grade changeup (PB), a pitch the Marlins are third worst in the league against (-1.37 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 91 (91 Home)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.01
Jesus Luzardo has been below a 10.6 SwStr% just once all season. With an average of 14.6%, his 24 K% has room to grow, but he does have a below average 14.9 CStr% and has allowed 10.6% Barrels/BBE also. One of the tightest estimator ranges I’ve seen (3.65 FIP – 3.88 dERA).
Opp wRC+: 100 (25.2 K%)
DEF: -8
B30: 4.01
Brewers @ Phillies
The Brewers have not yet confirmed a pitcher. Colin Rea is suspected. His 8.1 K-BB% and 40% hard contact rate produces all estimators above four and a half. He doesn’t throw any pitch more than six percent of the time with a PitchingBot grade above 47 to which he adds an 85 Stuff+ score.
Opp wRC+: 108 (112 Home)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.48
Cristopher Sanchez has generated 59.6% of his contact on the ground, while just one of his 12 barrels (6.5%) has left the yard. Non-FIP estimators range from a 3.04 xFIP to a 3.80 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 101 (108 Road, 124 L7 days)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.13
Update 4:25 EST: Near 80 with a 10 mph wind out to left. Rea gets a left-handed opener.
Mets @ Nationals
David Peterson was up 0.8 mph in his first start of the season, though the broadcast made it sound like closer to two mph. It was otherwise a very David Peterson start. Lots of hard contact (55.6%) with a pair of barrels and three strikeouts. There was some optimism after he’d dominated his minor league rehab outings supposedly sitting 95 mph.
Opp wRC+: 82
DEF: -4
B30: 4.20
While PitchingBot grades the four-seamer (35.1%, 2.9 RV/100, 62 grade) as Trevor Williams’s only above average pitch, it’s the new sweeper (20%, 1.6 RV/100, 46 Whiff%, 43 grade) that’s getting a lot of the credit for his turnaround/breakout this season. He hasn’t been 2.22 ERA good with just a pair of his 10 barrels leaving the yard, but he has only allowed barrels on 6.2% of batted balls and doesn’t have a single estimator reaching four with a 13.9 K-BB% that’s the second best mark of his career for any season with at least 10 starts. Williams exceeded 20 batters for only the second time in eight starts start time out.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -12.5
B30: 4.15
Update 4 EST: Low 80s, light wind across the field. Williams scratched. LHP Hertz in. No idea who he is.
Twins @ Yankees
Bailey Ober has allowed 14 of his 31 runs to the Royals in his first and last starts this season. He’s also allowed five to Cleveland and four to the White Sox, but the Royals are also responsible for 10 of his 18 barrels (11.3%) on the season as well. With a 19.8 K-BB% (though just 13.2% last three starts), Ober has estimators running only as high as a 4.18 FIP, well below his 4.89 ERA. This is a really tough spot for a guy with a 27.8 GB%, who gets in trouble when he misses with his fastball (39.1%, -1.9 RV/100, 51 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 130 (10.4 K-BB%, 16.9 HR/FB)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.19
Luis Gil had control issues at the start of the season, which he solved, but with fewer strikeouts. Now, he’s struck out 31 of his last 74 batters (16.3 SwStr%) with just five walks and a 26.3 SwStr%. It’s been the White Sox, Mariners and Angels, but that’s how a dominant pitcher is supposed to treat those teams. Gil’s worst estimator is a 3.52 SIERA, his best a 2.76 xERA. Pitch modeling gives him a 115 Stuff+ grade, but just a 102 Pitching+ one, which hasn’t really budged much over this three start run. PitchingBot grades the fastball (58.8%) and changeup (26.6%) at 56, but the slider (17.1%) just 41. I’d expected better.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: 11
B30: 3.71
DFS Notes: A 10 game slate with four domes and one game potentially at risk at Wrigley, features mostly moderate temperatures without too much wind interference, though it reaches double digits in a few spots. We have a team reaching six implied runs tonight, not at Coors, one reaching five (at Coors) and then another half run below that, six more above four and a half with seven more below four implied runs. Without much consideration for ownership, I found my initial DraftKings lineup easer to build than FanDuel, mostly due to pitching. I also found myself squarely focusing on three offenses. The top two are two cheap, but then another one in that four and a half to five range. Let’s see why.
We start with temps in the low 70s and a near double digit wind in from right center in the Bronx, where the Yankees sit middle of the board at 4.55 implied runs and the Twins (3.45) third from the bottom. I love what Gil has been doing, but he’s the top priced pitcher and not my top arm tonight. I have him slightly behind a few other guys. He’s certainly not a bad roster tonight and I would have multi entry exposure without any interest in Minnesota bats. Ober is a bit tougher. The numbers are telling me he has some value at $8K, but I personally don’t like this spot for him, though the wind blowing in helps. I have no Yankee exposure in my single entry lineups, but Aaron Judge (181 wRC+, .347 ISO v RHP since last year) is one of the top bats on the board, considering Ober’s reverse split (RHBs .325 wOBA, .317 xwOBA since last year w/ LHBs below .290).
Update 4:15 EST: Both teams add a RHB. Ober has a reverse split, Gil has none. Trevino in for Wells. Lewis back, but Jeffers and Santana out, Vazquez in too.
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Corbin Burnes still has just the two starts with more than six strikeouts, but with a 17.8 K-BB% and 33% hard contact rate, estimators ranging from a 2.84 xERA to a 3.42 SIERA are still pretty strong and pitch modeling still gushes over him (117 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+, 3.37 Bot ERA), including a 58 grade cutter (45.5%, 1.7 RV/100). The Blue Jays are the second worst offenses in baseball against cutters (-1.66 RV/100). Burnes threw six innings of one run ball against Toronto a few starts back, striking out just two with a 15% hard hit rate.
Opp wRC+: 101 (19.7 K%)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.57
Bowden Francis is expected to return from the IL and “pitch in some capacity” in this game. Two starts and a few relief appearances (14.2 innings) into his season, he has a 14.7 k-BB% with contact neutral estimators below four, but 16.3% Barrels/BBE and nearly half his contact reaching a 95 mph EV, making for contact inclusive estimators reaching six.
Opp wRC+: 106 (20.1 K%)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.10
DFS Notes; Late word that the dome was open last night, increasing the average run factor from 96 to 102 via Statcast three year. The Orioles (4.76) are fifth from the top with the Blue Jays (3.74) fifth from the bottom. Burnes isn’t pitching poorly and he consistently goes deep into games. He’s a top three arm for me and a guy who still can pop double digit strikeouts, though he’s only been above six twice. It’s not a great spot for a guy not striking out a lot of hitters, but I’d have some exposure in mult-entry. The other side of this is Burnes’ reverse split (RHBs .296 wOBA, .307 xwOBA since last year) against a predominantly right-handed lineup. Schneider (137 wRC+, .207 ISO v RHP since LY) and Jansen (127, .236) may still have some sneaky value on FD, but it’s not where I’m going. This looks like an opener situation with both Francis and Trevor Richards. I’m not nuts about it. Gunnar Henderson (147, .292) is a top of the board bat, but just my second best overall shortstop tonight.
Update 4:30 EST: Vogelbach bats cleanup, takes Kiermaier's place. Hays & McCann in, O'Hearn & Mullins sit.
Braves @ Red Sox
Max Fried has pitched at least seven innings in five of his last seven starts. Sometimes there are runs, sometimes strikeouts, sometimes walks, but always ground balls (63% on the year). Fried continues to dominate contact (4.3% Barrels/BBE, 28.6% hard contact rate), but with just a 12.6 K-BB%. Estimators are all above his 2.97 ERA, but by less than half a run. Pitch modeling sees it as half a run worse than that with just a 3.98 Bot ERA, 98 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 95 (28.4 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.92
Kutter Crawford has allowed at least four runs against the Rays, Brewers and Orioles over his last four. Two of the most powerful offenses in the league and his K-BB (13.4%) is down just two points from his season rate over this span with a reasonable 39.7% hard contact rate. The main culprit appears to be a 59% strand rate. With about half the ground balls, Crawford has a better K-BB (15.4%) than Fried with just a 33.5% hard contact rate. The FIP (3.30) matches the ERA (3.29) with just five of 15 barrels leaving the park, but additional estimators ranging from a 3.70 xERA to a 4.19 xERA suggest average pitcher. They have a similar Bot ERA (4.05), but Crawford has superior Stuff+ (106) and Pitching+ (104) grades.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: -4
B30: 3.35
It’s rare that I’ll jump on a team that is not a massive dog when they have the clear starting pitching and offensive deficit, but Crawford’s not bad and the Atlanta offense doesn’t match last year’s, while the Red Sox (+142) are at home with edges on defense and in the bullpen.
DFS Notes: Temps in the 60s with a light wind in from right will make Fenway play slightly more negatively, but still one of the better run environments in the league. The Braves are middle of the board (4.47) with the Red Sox (3.53) fourth from the bottom. Fried should pitch deep into the game with lots of ground balls and has some value in this matchup against a high strikeout lineup. I have him as my fifth best arm overall, a bit behind Gil. I don’t have much interest in either side of the Crawford/Braves matchup here. Just three Atlanta regulars against RHP exceed a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days and just three strike out less than 22.9% of the time against RHP since last year, though all except Arcia are above a .150 ISO against them.
Update 4:45 EST: Hitter leaning ump (De Jesus) counters some of the pitcher friendly weather. No movement (0.35% gain) on BOS.
Tigers @ Rangers
Jack Flaherty is one inning shy of having pitched six innings in all 11 of his starts with a .320 BABIP and 19.1 HR/FB the reason his 3.46 ERA is at least two-thirds of a run above all estimators. He’s somehow allowed nine home runs on seven barrels (4.3%, 34.2% hard hit rate) to go along with a league topping 30.2 K-BB%, nearly two points ahead of the next best qualified pitcher. He’s struck out exactly nine in three straight starts, though pitch modeling believes the command (104 Pitching+) to be better than the stuff (97 Stuff+). Pitching Bot gives his fastball a 56 grade (40.5%, -0.7 RV/100). The Rangers are bottom third of the league against fastballs (-0.35 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 105 (19.4 K%) (Incl. Mon)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.80
Dane Dunning walked four Diamondbacks in his last start, didn’t allow a single run. His 3.94 ERA is within a quarter run of contact neutral estimators (16.2 K-BB%), but well below his FIP (4.74) and xERA (5.12) with an awful contact profile (13.3% Barrels/BBE, 47.8% hard contact rate). Pitch modeling is in agreement with the latter set of estimators (85 Stuff+, 5.44 Bot ERA). Dunnings best PitchingBot grade is 44 (sinker) with no other offering even reaching 40.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 6
B30: 4.41
DFS Notes: Slightly positive run environment with the roof closed (104), which jumps to 114 on average when it rarely opens. Both teams are tied for the sixth lowest run total tonight (3.75). Jack Flaherty is tied for my top DK arm with Burnes, but my clear top value among the expensive arms tonight. On FanDuel, I have him tied with Imanaga for the top spot with all three at similar value, but I opted to go with Flaherty again. That’s partially due to rain risk, partially because, well, flip a coin. Flaherty has been striking out more batters than Burnes. They both have tough matchups. Should we get the go-ahead in Chicago, I may flip to Imanaga on FD. Corey Seager (177 wRC+, .310 ISO v RHP since LY) is still my top SS on the board. LHBs have a .340 wOBA and .338 xwOBA against Dunning since last year. The Tigers only have a few, but I like Greene (134, .194) a little bit. LeClerc threw 25 pitches yesterday.
Update 6:10 EST: Bottom of the lineup swaps for the Tigers.
White Sox @ Cubs
After a few start velocity spike where Chris Flexen allowed three runs over 16.1 innings with a 13.1 K-BB%, he’s allowed 16 over his last 18.1 with a 9.2 K-BB% that’s still better than his season rate of 8.6%. However, after allowing zero barrels with the increased velocity, Flexen has allowed five since. He’s not managing contact poorly otherwise (35.5% hard hit rate season). Estimators range from a 4.42 xERA to a 4.83 xFIP, well below his 5.50 ERA. Main issues are a 66.4 LOB% and that he can’t miss bats (8.6 SwStr%, 89.1 Z-Contact%). Pitch modeling suggests he’s lucky to be that good (55 Stuff+, 5.20 Bot ERA without a single one of his five pitches above a 50 grade).
Opp wRC+: 97 (Incl. Mon)
DEF: -11.5
B30: 4.20
It finally happened. Shota Imanaga got smacked in Milwaukee. He was barreled three times (two home runs), but has also allowed seven barrels over his last three starts (14%). A 21.2 K-BB% is generally going to limit the damage, but there is concern about his high fastball at 91.9 mph with the weather heating up. All non-FIP estimators are more than a run above his 1.86 ERA still, adjusting only as high as a 3.56 dERA though. As we mentioned about the fastball (56.9%, 2.5 RV/100, 66 PB grade), it’s more about command (105 Pitching+) than pure stuff (93 Stuff+). The White Sox are the worst offense against fastballs by the way (-1.04 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 71 (71 Road & L7 days)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.47
DFS Notes: Hopeful that we have a window to play between storms, but temps in the upper 70s with a double digit wind out to left makes it a hitter friendly spot. The Cubs top the board at 6.18 implied runs, though the White Sox still bring up the rear at 3.32, which explains my interest in Imanaga. On the other side, I’m stacking Cubs in single entry. RHBs are above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against Flexen since last year, LHBs .330+. Morell (104 wRC+, .209 ISO v RHP since last year), Swanson (95, .153), Suzuki (126, .207) and Tauchman (115, .133) make both my FD & DK lineups, only Suzuki on DK ($4.6K) not fairly cheap. Happ (124, .185) just missed the cut. Bellinger (119, .208) is fine too, but the most expensive bat in this lineup.
Update 5:50 EST: Some news here and very little of it good. In addition to the forecast dropping temps to the low 70s with that wind out to left dropping under 10 mph, storms are also forecast to hit mid-game. Imanaga is a massive risk, which is a shame because the White Sox K rates have increased with Robert Jr. back (for Pham) and Maldonado in. Cubs bats may have to be rethought at some point to. Hoerner hits leadoff with Tauchman out for Busch.
Cardinals @ Astros
Andre Pallante generates ground balls (68.8% over 192 career MLB innings), but not much else (5.8 K-BB%). He struck out four of 22 Reds in his first start (5.8 SwStr%) with three walks. In 16 innings this year, he’s allowed hard contact at a 45.3% rate, but just three barrels (5.7%). Pitch modeling metrics are subpar (95 Stuff+, 92 Pitching+). PitchingBot gives his fastball a 50 grade (57.9%), but nothing else even above a 31 grade.
Opp wRC+: 113 (19 K%) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.89
SpAghetti struck out a career high eight of 23 batters (14.4 SwStr%) on six shutout innings with two hits last time out…in Seattle. He can miss bats (25.5 K%, 12.1 SwStr%) and has even improved his contact profile (6.5% Barrels/BBE, 38.7 Hard%), but still walks far too many (11.5%). That said, all estimators are more than a run and a half below his 5.98 ERA (.375 BABIP, 65.8 LOB%). Positive regression is looming. Pitch modeling is conflicting with a 79 Stuff+ grade and 97 Pitching+ one, but a 3.65 Bot ERA led by a 67 grade cutter (21.9%, 2.3 RV/100).
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 4
B30: 3.62
DFS Notes: Generally always closed roof, the park has a 102 run factor as such. The Cardinals just reach four runs (4.04), while the Astros (4.96) are third from the top. Pallante is a daily fantasy killer. So many ground balls that you pretty much have to stack and have some good BABIP luck against him. That’s not where I’m going, but certainly plenty of Houston exposure in multi-entry. RHBs have a .403 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against him since last year. Basically everyone except Pena (87 wRC+, .098 ISO v RHP since last year) and Abreu (70, .109) should be in play. On the other end, I mentioned that I smelled positive regression in the air for SpAghetti, who has been pitching better. He’s my top value under $8K on DK and my SP2. It’s not even close. If you’re not buying into the regression, batters from either side are between a .321 and .363 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Cardinal exposure in multi would be fine, even as a hedge in lineups without SpAghetti. Gorman (121, .252) stands out most. Romero (44) and Kitteridge (28) back to back days, as well as Montero (30). Hader two of three (25) and four of six (68), Abreu (40) two of three also.
Update 5 EST: Roof closed. Caratini replaces Tucker.
Reds @ Rockies
Let’s accentuate the positive first. Frankie Montas is still throwing some quality stuff (103 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, 3.85 Bot ERA) with the splitter (20.3%, -0.6 RV/100) and sinker (16.4%, 4 RV/100) both reaching a 55 PB grade. The results are not there though. Montas has just a 7.2 K-BB% and Barrels/BBE. One isn’t bad, the other atrocious. His 4.60 ERA is below all of his estimators. Which are you going to believe? Ideally, for him, the Rockies have few LHBs (.387 wOBA, .378 xwOBA since last year). RHBs are below .300.
Opp wRC+: 81 (25.9 K%, 81 Home) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.37
Over his last three home starts (TEX, PHI, CLE), Ty Blach has the following line: 18.2 IP – 74 BF – 5 R – 2 HR – 3 BB – 9 K
It looks like he’s pitched pretty well against some great competition. However, his swinging strike rate has maxed out at 8.5% in these three starts, while he’s allowed five barrels with a hard hit rate in the low-40s. The real hero here has been some great strand rates. On the season, a 4.9 BB% is doing most the work for a 7.1 K-BB% with a 4.15 ERA that’s below all non-FIP estimators, though none reach five. Pitching Bot sees him about average even (3.94 Bot ERA) with one standout pitch (cutter 13.9%, -1.2 RV/100, 64 grade), but with just 73 Stuff+ and 93 Pitching+ grades. RHBs are above a .390 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 96 (9.7 K-BB%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.77
DFS Notes: Nearly 80 with a double digit wind in from left, but it’s Coors. The Reds (5.57) are behind only the Cubs with the Rockies (4.93) fourth on the board. Montas at $6K almost looks interesting with his pitch modeling, but I’m not buying into Blach’s recent home success for a minute. Considering the splits mentioned above, Blackmon (93 wRC+, .161 ISO v RHP since last year) and McMahon (106, .207) look strong here, while Cincy bats are just far too cheap going against the left-hander. Stephenson (111, .183) and Fairchild (117, .147) make both of my lineups (assuming the latter in the leadoff spot or close to it), while Candelario (116, .183) is my DK third baseman. Spencer Steer (134, .266) is actually expensive.
Update 5:15 EST: Bryant remains out.
Padres @ Angels
Adam Muzar is a 23 year-old 45 Future Value grade prospect (FG) with the potential for an above average slider. A scouting report from January suggested a back of the rotation type with great control, but some command issues inside the zone. In 19 AAA innings, he has a 17.7 K-BB%, but allowed four home runs. Projection systems average around four and a quarter runs per nine.
Opp wRC+: 88 (38 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.45
One starts after getting smashed by Cleveland for eight runs with as many walks as strikeouts (four), Patrick Sandoval was back in control against the Yankees, allowing just a pair of runs over six innings with seven strikeouts. A .331 BABIP and 63.3% LOB are responsible for a 5.34 ERA when estimators run only as high as a 4.10 xERA (6.3% Barrels/BBE). The 10% walk rate is a bit of an issue, but returns a league average 13.8 K-BB% when paired with a solid strikeout rate. Pitch modeling sees Sandoval as perfectly average (99 Stuff+ & Pitching+, 4.12 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 92 (17.7 K%)
DEF: -11
B30: 4.27
DFS Notes; Close to 70 with a five mph breeze out to left in a run neutral, but power friendly environment, both teams sit middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs and I’m about similarly interested in this game. Middle of the board. I like what Sandoval is doing, but this is a tough offense to rack of daily fantasy points against. Mazur would be slightly interesting if he weren’t already $7.7K on DK. If you wondered how the Angels were making it work with that offense, wonder now more because they’ve stopped hitting. RHBs do have a .330 wOBA and .337 xwOBA against Sandoval since last year. Solano (124 wRC+, .121 ISO v LHP since last year) is a decent value play. Tatis (139, .175) a strong overall one with Profar (124, .168) somewhere in the middle of both.
Update 6:35 EST: No meaningful changes.
Mariners @ Athletics
After allowing five runs in two straight road starts and four more in his previous road start, George Kirby got back on track at home against the Astros with six innings of one run ball and eight strikeouts. In fact, he’s allowed at least four runs in four of six road starts this season and has just an 18.6 K% on the road since last season, more than five points below his home strikeout rate. It takes a lot to buy into home/road splits, but this is a significant difference. His .343 xwOBA on the road is much higher than his overall or home numbers too over this span. Overall, Kirby has a tight estimator range from a 3.35 FIP to a 3.57 xERA more than half a run below his 4.08 ERA and pitch modeling grades him better than that (3.24 Bot ERA, 105 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+) with the lowest PB grade on any pitch he throws more than 10% of the time at 54. Love Kirby, concerned with his road issues.
Opp wRC+: 99 (26.5 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.45
Mitch Spence has a league average 12.7 K-BB% against 55 batters in a starting role and 14.3% mark overall this year with all estimators within one-third of a run of his 3.52 ERA, dropping as low as a 3.18 xERA. Pitch modeling seems to like what he’s throwing too (3.28 Bot ERA, 102 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades), including a 62 grade slider (40.8%, 0.8 RV/100), a pitch the Mariners struggle against (-0.6 wSL/C is fifth worst in MLB). Actual projections for Spence are about a half run above estimators, just slightly above four.
Opp wRC+: 94 (28.5 K%)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.93
I don’t think the A’s have the better offense against RHP, but it’s closer than most people expected. I don’t think Spence’s estimators are the same three and a half that Kirby’s are, but he does seem to legitimately struggle on the road and the Mariners struggle with sliders, Spence’s top weapon. I’ll take the A’s at a decent price at home (+138).
DFS Notes: Temps near 80 with a near double digit wind out to right center. Oakland has increased to a 96 RF according to Statcast three year and this weather could actually push it into hitter friendly territory. I think Kirby is going to be popular here and he’s fine for less than $9K on DK, but we have a year and a third telling us there’s something different on the road. Still a high upside matchup and I’m going to be wrong plenty of the time here. I don’t dislike Spence here in a great spot, but it’s not as pitcher friendly an environment as you’d expect and I still like Arrighetti more. The Mariners (4.17) are middle of the board with the A’s (3.33) second from the bottom. Note that seven of nine projected A’s have a wRC+ greater than 100 against RHP since last year with seven also above a .150 ISO, while batters from either side are slightly above a .300 xwOBA against Kirby. I’m still not very interested in attacking him, but it’s something to note. Crawford (126, .184) is the only real Seattle value. Mason Miller hasn’t pitched in four days.
Update 6:40 EST: Garver in for Raleigh. Gives SEA a fifth RHB. Spence slight reverse split in a small sample.
Giants @ Diamondbacks
While Kyle Harrison has successfully eliminated his biggest problem while coming up through the ranks with just a 7.8 BB%, he’s not missing bats (21.2 K%, 9.3 SwStr%) as he used to and he’s not missing barrels either (11.3%). In fact, he’s allowed eight barrels over his last two starts (22%) and now has a 4.82 xERA that’s one of two estimators (4.87 dERA) more than a half run above his 4.15 ERA, which matches a 4.14 SIERA. Pitch modeling gives him a 91 Stuff+ grade (93 Pitching+), while PitchingBot grades only the fastball (63.9%, 1.2 RV/100, 50 PB grade) as average.
Opp wRC+: 120 (19.4 K%) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.10
Twenty-two year old Blake Walston (35+ FV grade via FG) has struck out nine of 37 batters, but with just a 7.6 SwStr% and five walks. A May scouting report from Fangraphs calls him an emergency starter/long reliever type, who barely throws 90 mph, but may have the potential for an above average slider. Projection systems have him around four and a half on average.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: 13
B30: 3.80
DFS Notes: Roof closed, this is a slightly negative run environment (96). Both teams are still at 4.75 runs, on the top half of the board. No interest in either pitcher and I’m really not sure what to do with Walston here. There is some value in an opposing offense having less in formation for a pitcher, but scouting reports are not friendly. RHBs have a .324 wOBA and .337 xwOBA against Harrison in his career with LHBs even higher. I really like Ketel Marte (158 wRC+, .252 ISO v LHP since LY) at second base and Grichuk (143, .214) for value. I’d also go overweight on Arizona stacks in mult-entry. Tyler Rogers (26) has thrown back to back days.
Update 6:30 EST: Ramos bats leadoff. Moreno bats second again. McCarthy in for Carroll.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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