All eight games completed on Sunday night. Just the right size for a daily fantasy slate too. I've updated my park factors for the second time this season (each month) and while there aren't any large moves from month to month, it's interesting to see which directions some parks are moving in. For example, Seattle now has a three year run factor of 81 with the roof closed, but 85 with it open. There has previously been no difference. This is a slight issue because information on the roof status in Seattle is impossible to get. Not like the Diamondbacks, who list it days ahead of time on their website (closed for the entire series against the Giants). Miami is another roof that's tough to find info for, but not as big of a deal because it's rarely ever open. Seattle, on the other hand, may play more games with it open than closed. Then again, if the league isn't going to be transparent on baseballs, whey should we expect more info about roofs?
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Brewers @ Phillies
Unconfirmed Bryse Wilson is. (I don’t know why I’m speaking like Yoda.) Four straight outings with a home run, but also only four barrels over that span (6.3%), while the Cubbies roughed him up pretty good last time. Wilson lasted just four innings, striking out a single batter. Below average (10.1 K-BB%, 8.6 SwStr%, 45.7% hard contact), but fine as a fifth starter fill-in, swingman type with estimators ranging from a 4.43 SIERA to a 5.00 FIP/dERA, if they can keep him to just twice through the order. Wilson’s fastball (15.1%, -2.7 RV/100, 45 PB grade) will be tested against the top fastball hitting team in the majors (0.72 wFA/C). It would be smarter to throw more curveballs (16.6, -0.3 RV/100, 55 PB grade), his only above average pitch, though the Phillies are top third of the league against them too (0.47 wCU/C).
Opp wRC+: 108 (20.6 K%, 115 Home)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.50
Zach Wheeler is coming off six two-hit innings, striking out nine of 21 Giants in his last start. He’s been up to 96 mph last three starts too, matching last year’s velocity. Estimators all above his 2.32 ERA, but less than a run so, a .237 BABIP is regression worthy and his 7.5 HR/FB would be a career low, but a continuous elite contact profile (6.0% Barrels/BBE, 34.6% hard hit rate) consistently keeps his home run rate below the league average, even in one of the most power friendly parks.
Opp wRC+: 120 (108 Road, 113 L7 days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.08
DFS Notes: Exactly half of an eight game slate has the potential to be indoors with the possibility of rain in three of the other four spots, but more likely the nuisance kind than game altering. The one area without any rain risk (Los Angeles) has the coolest temperatures on the board. Despite plenty of good pitching on the board, three teams reach five implied runs (Coors + PHI) with three more above four and a half and eight below four.
Philadelphia is the highest risk spot on the board and the rain is hit or miss, leaning more towards miss and play through at the current time. Temperatures around 80 with a light breeze in from center field, this is a near run neutral, but very power friendly park. Assuming Bryse Wilson (still apparently not yet confirmed), the Phillies are just above five implied runs (5.05). LHBs have a .367 wOBA and .375 xwOBA against Wilson since last year and Bryce Harper (148 wRC+, .222 ISO v RHP since LY) is my top bat on the board tonight with Kyle Schwarber (117, .262) not far behind. Unfortunately, Brandon Marsh pulled up with a hamstring injury on Sunday night, but Bryson Stott (102, .152) is a top FD value for $2K less than on DK and Kody Clemens (102, .208) would be a top value on either site. Despite the tough matchup in a tough park, Zach Wheeler is still a top three arm for me tonight (Brewers 3.45), but also the most expensive and not the pitcher I would be paying up for. The Philly pen has been moderately worked over the weekend with almost everyone of note working at least twice, but only Kerkering (32) above 30 pitches.
Update 4:50 EST: Dahl replaces Marsh. LHP Koenig opens for Wilson. PHI has the clear SP edge, but MIL has a 12 pt wRC+ edge against RHP & the far better defense. This line is a bit high (+168).
Mets @ Nationals
This is a fun matchup and though I generally am not in favor of daily fantasy contests starting before 7 EST, I’m glad these two guys are on the main slate (though I’ll make no determination on their value until Monday afternoon). Of Tyler Megill’s two new pitches, the splitter (8.8%, 2.2 RV/100, 63.6 Whiff%, 26 PB grade) has been much more successful than the cutter (13.7%, -0.6 RV/100, 22.2 Whiff%, 44 PB grade), despite the difference in PitchingBot grades. In fact, PB really doesn’t like any of Megill’s offerings, except for a fastball (53.8%, 1.2 RV/100, 26.5 Whiff%, 52 PB grade) he’s throwing 96 mph again. With a 110 Stuff+ grade, but 97 Pitching+ and 4.98 Bot ERA, I think it’s more a matter of command at this point, which has resulted in a 9.4 BB%, 46.9 Z-O-Swing% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE, but three of his six walks came in his first start (18 BF) with just three (46) since returning from the IL. How bad can the command be though, with a 31.3 K% and 12.1 SwStr%? Now giving batters several different looks, Megill’s estimators through three starts run only as high as a 3.71 xFIP.
Opp wRC+: 92 (92 Home, 93 L7 days)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.45
Breakout star and legit dark horse Cy Young candidate, MacKenzie Gore struck out 10 of 22 Braves in his last start and is now up to a 22.2 K-BB% on the season with non-FIP estimators all above his 2.91 ERA, but only running as high as a 3.49 xERA. This is an arsenal that pitch modeling adores (116 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+, 2.98 Bot ERA), led by a 69 grade fastball (54.3%) that the Mets should struggle against (-0.09 wFA/C is bottom half of the league). Six of Gore’s 25 runs are unearned (just look at the Washington defense), but he has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start yet (with more than three total just once).
Opp wRC+: 104 (19.9 K%)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.10
DFS Notes: Similar to Philly, some shower potential with temps around 80 and very little wind concern. Both offenses hover around four runs. On a slate with so much strong pitching, Gore takes hits for defense and catcher framing, along with facing a Mets offense that doesn’t strike out a ton. This is probably one of the few boards where he’s not very high on my radar for $9K or more. Tylor Megill, however, is my DK SP2 for $7.2K ($2.4 more on FD). More strikeouts than I thought in the current Washington order against RHP with five at 23.5% or higher since last year against pitchers from that side. As for bats, well, are you significantly regressing both arms and including last year’s statistics? Because if you are, batters from both sides are above a .315 wOBA and xwOBA, running as high LHBs’ .375 wOBA against Gore since last year. LHBs still have a .344 wOBA against Gore this year, but are otherwise no higher than .300 against either pitcher. Maybe Nimmo (110 wRC+, .132 ISO v LHP since LY), Lindor (142, .274), Alonso (132, .304) and Martinez (155, .297) get a multi-entry stack. Garrett (45) has thrown four of the last six. The Mets’ bullpen has stunk, but hasn’t been over-worked. They just can’t find anyone who can get consistent outs. Garcia (39) has thrown four of last five.
Update 4:30 EST: Torres slightly hitter friendly ump. No Abrams. Slight alterations to WAS LU actually lower the strikeout rate. Would play Waldron over Megill in his his price range, but am still planning on using both on DK.
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Grayson Rodriguez is coming off a season high 10 strikeouts against 27 Red Sox (18.9 SwStr%), but perhaps more importantly, he walked just one after issuing free passes to 11 of his previous 71 batters. The Sawx did get to Gray-Rod for four runs, but with just seven hard hit balls and no barrels, yet a home run. Rodriguez has no problem missing bats (27.9 K%, 13.4 SwStr%), but does tend to issue to many free passes (9.6%) with a mediocre contact profile. Estimators ranging from a 3.43 FIP to a 4.00 dERA are all within half a run of his 3.53 ERA. Grayson’s pitch modeling metrics are glowing with every pitch graded above average and several in the 60s via PitchingBot (2.90 ERA) along with 118 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ grades. The slider and fastball are not only two of those pitches exceeding a 60 PB grade, but also two the Blue Jays have bottom third of the league weighted run values against.
Opp wRC+: 101 (19.8 K%)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.49
One start after Kevin Gausman struck out a season high 10 Tigers (18.4 SwStr%), he punched out only three of 22 White Sox (8.0 SwStr%). Having admitted it was a mistake not to start the season on the IL, Gausman still has a healthy 18.0 K-BB%, which is his lowest mark since 2018. Down nearly a full mph, the fastball remains his best graded pitch (62 PB), but also his worst by run value (43.1%, -1.6 RV/100), as he’s leaving it out over the plate to be hammered for a .440 wOBA and xwOBA (51.3% hard hit rate). The result is a 4.70 xERA that’s more than half a run above his 4.14 ERA with all other estimators at least three-quarters of a run better than actual results. The hard contact has not shown up in home runs (just five of 14 barrels), but a .350 BABIP and 66.2 LOB%. The expectation of such would normally be regression, but the contact profile on the fastball is a problem and Gausman generally runs a high BABIP (.344 since 2022).
Opp wRC+: 105 (106 Road, 127 L7 days)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.40
DFS Notes: Updated park run factors have Toronto at 96 with the roof closed, 102 on average with it open. Both teams are at 3.75 implied runs with a pair of potentially great pitchers on the mound. I have Grayson Rodriguez as a top three pitcher tonight, in terms of upside, even in a tough matchup. I feel that he’s more likely to hit his upside than Gausman, who’s been a bit more volatile this year. Gausman is much cheaper and worth some exposure to at $8K, though the Orioles are hitting RHP much better than they were earlier in the season. With LHBs owning a .333 wOBA and .332 xwOBA against Gausman since last year, Henderson (147 wRC+, .293 ISO v RHP since last year) is my top SS tonight. With RHBs owning a .303 wOBA, .306 xwOBA against Rodriguez since last year (he benefits from facing a predominantly right-handed lineup too), Danny Jansen (130, .239) has some FD value just above $3K. Garcia and Green threw more than 25 pitches on Sunday with the former working three of the last five days (54 pitches). Coulombe (53) has also worked three of the last five.
Update 5:55 EST: Can't find anything about the roof, which is odd because they have an account that is fairly consistent in posting hours before the game. Vogey in for Turner. Hays and Norby in for Mullins & Mateo.
Update 6:15 EST: Roof open.
Tigers @ Rangers
Seven quality starts in Tarik Subal’s last eight tries. He’s dominating the league with a 27.0 K-BB%, 29.9% hard contact rate and board bests 77.4 Z-Contact% and 29.4 Z-O-Swing%. Estimators all above his 2.01 ERA run only as high as a 2.68 dERA. With a 105 Stuff+ grade, 108 Pitching+ and 3.09 Bot ERA, every pitch grades above average, led by the changeup (27%, 0.7 RV/100, 66 PB grade) and fastball (31.4%, 2.3 RV/100, 57 PB grade), a pair of pitches the Rangers have trouble against (-0.09 wCH/C, -0.32 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 85 (15.5 K-BB%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.78
Choosing to rehab at the major league level, Nathan Eovaldi struck out just two of 14 Diamondbacks on 37 total pitches. Aside from workload issues, he’s also walked 10.4% this year, but lowed his barrel rate to 5.3% along with a 25.3 K%. Estimators tightly grouped between a 3.44 FIP/dERA and 3.80 SIERA are between a half run and a run above his 2.84 ERA (81.1 LOB%). The pitch modeling metrics are all very average, except for one littlie snippet that includes Eovaldi’s splitter (30.3%, 2 RV/100, 60 PB grade) against the Tigers (-1.85 wFS/C is fourth worst in baseball).
Opp wRC+: 99 (119 L7 days)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.61
FanDuel is listing the Tigers at -108 for the first five and the only reason I can think of that it’s not higher is that the Rangers won the championship last year. We have a Cy Young contender facing a rehabbing starter edges both offensively and in the bullpen. (Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
DFS Notes: Park run factors on average are 104 with the roof closed and 10 points higher with it open, we rarely worry about the latter once we get to June. Both teams here are at exactly 3.75 implied runs as well. The Rangers have been legitimately bad against LHP and Tarik Skubal would be my top pitcher on the board if paying up. He’s even $100 cheaper on FD tonight. No interest in Texas bats. Eovaldi is unusable due to workload issues. With his reverse split (RHBs .331 wOBA, .325 xwOBA since last year), Matt Vierling (111 wRC+, .172 ISO v RHP since last year) could be an interesting value out of the leadoff spot with two shots against Eovaldi. Foley (30) and Chafin (46) back to back games.
Update 5:20 EST: Roof closed. Baddoo & Justyn-Henry Malloy replace Vierling and Torkelson (optioned). A 2.62% gain on DET F5. Also played Eovaldi u5.5 Ks (-165). Just 37 pitches for Eovaldi in return from IL.
Cardinals @ Astros
Coming off a strong start in Cincinnati, Kyle Gibson has lowered his ERA to 3.60 with just a 10.1 K-BB% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE. You never want the latter to be a larger number than the former. The result is estimators ranging from a 4.22 xFIP to a 5.22 xERA and very poor pitch modeling metrics to boot. Gibson’s 92 Stuff+ grade rises only to 94 Pitching+ and a 5.10 Bot ERA includes an atrocious four-seamer (13.5%, -2.6 RV/100, 25 PB grade) and sinker (27.8%, 0 RV/100, 38 PB grade), which is a problem against the Astros, who are a top five offense against both pitches (0.59 wFA/C, 0.67 wSI/C).
Opp wRC+: 114 (18.7 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.91
At least six innings of one-run ball or better with either eight or nine strikeouts for Justin Verlander and you’d think he’s back if those starts weren’t in Detroit, Seattle and Oakland, while being ambushed in between in Milwaukee. An extreme fly ball pitcher (23.2 GB%) is how you have a 28.2% hard hit rate with 9.9% Barrels/BBE. The result is still just a 3.49 xERA that’s closest to Verlander’s 3.26 ERA with other estimators ranging from a 4.35 SIERA to a 5.30 dERA, due to that fly ball extreme and 15.1 K-BB%. Pitch modeling offers another massive disconnect here. By Stuff+ (123) and Pitching+ (105), Verlander is still in his prime. PitchingBot (4.51 ERA) tells a different story with all four of his pitches graded below 50.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 4
B30: 3.71
Considering Houston’s proficiency against fastballs/sinkers combined with Gibson’s inefficiencies, an over on their team total (4.5 +102) seems necessary.
DFS Notes: This roof is open less often than Texas with a three year 102 Run Factor with it closed (74 open by the way). The Cardinals are tied for the bottom spot on the board (3.45) with the Astros closer to the top (4.55). I’m concerned that Verlander’s best work has come against high upside offenses. There are five projected Cardinals exceeding a 25 K% v RHP since last year, but the other four are below 20%. Verlander is not for me in this spot for $9K. I’d go underweight with some hedge exposure in multi. Cardinal bats are almost all very average against RHP since last year. I have no interest there. Gibson does benefit some from a predominantly right-handed lineup (..294 wOBA, .330 xwOBA since last year), but LHBs are within three points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA. Tucker (150 wRC+, .253 ISO v RHP since LY) and Alvarez (166, .293) are top OF plays if you can afford them. Everyone of note in the St Louis pen worked on Sunday, but all below 20 pitches and Fernandez (33) the only one exceeding that mark working two days in a row. Abreu (40) has worked both days for the Astros.
Update 4:40 EST: Roof closed, as expected. Slight hitter lean on the umpire ( Stu Scheurwater), though HOU total (4.5) has increased from +102 to +108.
Reds @ Rockies
Regression struck a blow against Andrew Abbott with six runs and two home runs with just three strikeouts against the Cardinals. Now, he didn’t allow a single barrel in that game, which you can do and still allow home runs in Cincinnati, but Abbott still has a 3.29 ERA that’s more than a full run below any other estimator except a 3.11 xERA because he’s allowed just 32.3% hard contact. Overall pitch modeling metrics stand out as much worse than actual results too (92 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+, 4.37 Bot ERA). A .238 BABIP and 84.8 LOB% still have a long way to go.
Opp wRC+: 88 (81 Home)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.41
Ryan Feltner has alternated bad and then good starts over his last seven, so he should pitch well here. No, we know that’s not how things are expected to work, but his 11.8 K-BB% rivals Abbott’s 12.4% mark, while also managing contact well (6.2% Barrels/BBE). The difference is Feltner’s 5.86 ERA being well above estimators ranging from a 3.86 xERA to a 4.26 SIERA and FIP with a .337 BABIP and 63.9 LOB%. Although no single pitch stands out, Feltner’s overall pitch modeling metrics are better than Abbott’s (100 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, 4.24 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 81 (87 Road)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.69
The Reds have a massive bullpen edge here, but that’s it and they’re still F5 favorites on the road (COL +105).
DFS Notes: It’s 80 degrees with a breeze across the field and this is the spot tonight. Top two offenses on the board, both at 5.25 runs and I’m more interested in the home team here. It’s not that left-handed Rockies (.358 wOBA, .339 xwOBA against Feltner since last year) aren’t strong here, but they’re just not my favorite. Candelario (110 wRC+, .222 ISO v RHP since last year) and Friedl (101, .185) are my best values in this lineup. RHBs have a .329 wOBA and .301 xwOBA against Feltner since last season. I don’t absolutely hate him as an SP2 punt if paying up for Skubal either. RHBs have a .338 wOBA and .314 xwOBA against Abbott since last year. Small sample sizes, but growing larger for Bouchard (191, .367) and Goodman (196, .500) against LHP and they’re cheap! Brendan Rodgers (87, .110) is another cheap bat I’m interested in if he remains near the top of the order. Tovar (80, .183) is fine, but more expensive. Diaz, Sims and Cruz have all thrown more than 35 pitches working two of the last three days.
Update 5:05 EST: Pitcher lean on Estabrook behind the plate. McMahon and Bryant sit (Stallings & Trejo), yet a 4.49% gain on COL F5.
Padres @ Angels
Matt Waldron has increased his knuckleball usage (40%) and velocity (78.3 mph in May), greatly increasing it’s whiff rate in May (34.1%). Over his last three starts (in Atlanta and Cincinnati and against the Marlins), Waldron has struck out 25 of 72 batters with just four walks (13.2%), allowing just three runs over 17.2 innings. He’s also allowed no barrels with just a 19% hard contact rate over this span. Pitch modeling does not deal with knuckleballs, which is a shame because I’d love to see how they handle this one. The result is that their inaccurate for Waldron (81 Stuff+) and not very trustable, though he now has a 3.67 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 91 (58 L7 days)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.36
Sometimes it’s the changeup (34.6%, 2 RV/100, 37.4 Whiff%, 58 PB grade) that gets Tyler Anderson through, but last time out it was plain luck that he walked six Yankees, but allowed just a single solo home run. It wasn’t a barrel, but he’s allowed just eight home runs and 19 barrels, so he’s still getting the better of that deal. A .211 BABIP and 87 LOB% are due for massive regression, but Anderson’s 17.1 K% on a 12.0 SwStr% is likewise unsustainable, so a significant increase to his 2.47 ERA, though perhaps closer to his contact inclusive estimators (4.60 xERA, 9.9% Barrels/BBE) than his contact neutral ones (5.04 SIERA). That changeup is Anderson’s only pitch grade reaching 50 to go along with a 94 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 89 (17.9 K%)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.13
DFS Notes: Coolest spot on the board with temps below 70 and a light breeze out to left. L.A. is a slightly positive run environment (102 RF), but very power friendly. I’m on Waldron with the hard knuckler here on either site for less than $8K. Facing a struggling, below average offense, he gets you to the stacks you want (PHI, COL, CIN), especially pairing him with Megill on DK. The Angels are at 3.97 implied runs without a standout bat. How do you know who can hit a hard knuckleball anyway? The Padres are closer to the top of the board (4.53) and I’m thinking this might be the spot where Anderson gets smacked by regression. RHBs are above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Anderson since last year, RHBs above .340. Solano (128 wRC+, .123 ISO v LHP since last year) is the cheapest decent bat here. Tatis (139, .173) is one of my top bats tonight, but Arraez (100, .064) is not far behind him. Machado (124, .184) and Profar (123, .169) are strong here too. Why is Kim (131, .206) so low in the order? Two of last three for Garcia (43) and Moore (41).
Update 6:35 EST: No SDP LU yet. Small thing, but Paris batting 9th increases strikeout rate and adds fifth RHB. Waldro has a large split (RHBs below .285 wOBA and xwOBA since last year).
Giants @ Diamondbacks
Spencer Howard is suspected, but not confirmed to pitch the bulk of this game or at least more innings than anyone else. He struck out four of 16 Phillies (14.3 SwStr%) without a walk or a run (five hits and five hard hit batted balls) in his only action this season. Howard also has just a 10.5 K-BB% in 119 career innings with projections around four a bit light because they’re probably more for shorter stints of relief than four to five innings.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 8
B30: 3.20
Ryne Nelson’s best work of the season was a game he didn’t start against the Dodgers on May 22nd. He followed up with his seventh non-Quality start and sixth with at least three runs in Texas. Even with a mere 9.6 K-BB%, his 6.02 ERA is well above estimators ranging from a 4.26 FIP to 4.82 xERA (.384 BABIP). If you buy into his pitch modeling (3.70 Bot ERA, 99 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+), especially PitchingBot grades of at least 50 on all of his pitches, you’re probably hairless now.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 16
B30: 4.05
DFS Notes: Slightly negative run factor (96) with the roof closed as the website tells us it will be. Still don’t know what’s going on with the Giants, but the Diamondbacks have a 4.77 team run total. Basiing the analysis on Howard, who has fewer than 10 innings pitched over the last two seasons, RHBs are above a .400 wOBA/xwOBA against him with LHBs below .200. We know the numbers won’t stick to that extreme, but if RHBs are better against him, Walker (120 wRC+, .215 ISO v RHP since LY) would be the top play here. Batters from either side are between a .335 and .367 wOBA and xwOBA against Nelson since last year. Estrada (109, .172), Soler (104, .201) and Yaz (114, .210) are the only three projected Giants above a 100 wRC+ or .180 ISO v RHP since last season. Chapman, Bailey, Matos and Wisely all exceed a 110 wRC+ L30 days. Justin Martinez threw 26 pitches on Sunday, Doval 32 and Walker (33) two in a row.
Update 6:25 EST: A lot going on here. Conforto back, Wisely bats leadoff with Matos out. Both have some value in this spot. The Giants also open for Howard with the lefty Miller again. D'Backs respond by swapping Moreno and Carroll in the lineup. I'm also playing the under. Slightly pitcher friendly w/ roof closed. ARI 91 wRC+ v RHP. Both good defenses (ARI best in MLB). SFG top five pen estimators L30 days.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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