Wrote up just a few games for Saturday, but left room for more because I don't know what I'll have time for in the late morning/early afternoon. A full second run through? DFS notes? I don't know. And since this isn't a job that someone's paying me to do, I don't have to stress over it. I'll certainly let readers know where things stand early on, but I'm just not sure yet. Hope the info on these three games is helpful.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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Pirates @ Blue Jays
Rays @ Orioles
Tigers @ Red Sox
Nationals @ Guardians
Diamondbacks @ Mets
After struggling in 3.2 innings out of the pen against the Dodgers, Blake Walson shut out the Marlins over 4.2 innings, striking out four of 20 with one walk. The 35+ Future Value (Fangraphs) nearly 23 year-old is what they used to refer to as a junk baller or crafty lefty. The fastball (44 PB grade) may be the worst pitch in his arsenal with just a 30 FV grade via Fangraphs. Walston has thrown 185 innings at AAA with a single digit K-BB%, but tends to generate a lot of popups. Projection systems average out around four and a half on him.
Opp wRC+: 92 (87 Home)
DEF: 15
B30: 3.83
After posting a double digit walk rate in five of his first six starts (14.1%), Sean Manaea has walked exactly one in each of his last four (4.5%), pushing his K-BB into double digits (11.5%). With just three of 11 barrels leaving the yard, but a fairly average contact profile otherwise, Manaea’s best non-FIP estimator is a 4.20 xERA that is still more than a run above his 3.16 ERA, which is built on that low home run rate. The sinker is fine (39.8%, 2.7 RV/100, 54 PB grade), but is the only pitch that is. The cutter (12.1%, 0.5 RV/100, 30 PB grade) could be problematic though because in addition to Arizona’s prowess against LHP, they crush those (1.98 wFC/C is second best).
Opp wRC+: 116 (18.7 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.18
I’m giving credit to Manaea for being one-third of a run better than Walston’s projections. Maybe Walston is even a little worse. Hard to deny the 24 point edge for Arizona against LHP though, along with their massive defensive edge and minor bullpen one now too. (ARI +114) (Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
Padres @ Royals
Twins @ Astros
Athletics @ Braves
Rangers @ Marlins
Michael Lorenzen has thrown at least six innings in seven straight starts, allowing more than two runs in just one of his last five. He’s allowed just eight barrels this season (6.2%), but owns just a 6.8 K-BB%. The 3.35 ERA is the product of a .226 BABIP. A 4.34 xERA is Lorenzen’s only estimator not more than a run higher, while his 96 Stuff+ grade matches a 96 Pitching+ one. A 4.77 Bot ERA is even worse. Sorry to say, but this is still a below average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 90 (91 Home)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.52
Ryan Weathers has five straight quality starts, but has allowed just two runs (one earned) over his last 21 innings with a 19.7 K-BB% that’s brought his season rate up to a near average 12.6%. While his 3.16 ERA is not a real thing either, it’s closer to his estimators for May and his worst estimator (4.22 FIP) is still better than Lorenzen’s best one. Weathers also has matching 96 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades, but a 3.97 Bot ERA. Weathers has a 101 Pitching+ grade and 3.70 Bot ERA in May.
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: -6
B30: 3.90
So, the Texas edge here, it’s merely defense, right? I suppose the actual gap against LHP might flip the other way, but it’s still likely small, while I believe Weathers to be the better pitcher at this point with Miami the better pen. Why are the Rangers road favorites (+114)?
White Sox @ Brewers
Reds @ Cubs
In some instances, this seems like something of a breakout season for Hunter Greene, but then you realize that his walk rate hasn’t dropped any and a 17.3 K-BB% is more than three points below his career rate. The massive difference is in his contact profile, where he’s cut his barrels in half (4.3%) and dropped his had hit rate by 10 points (31.1%). This produces a 2.56 xERA that’s his only estimators below a 3.06 ERA. He’s still mostly a two pitch pitcher (fastball/slider 92.1%), throwing a splitter only 6.1% of the time. He does appear to be getting a bit more break on his slider that’s not being hit as hard and with a higher launch angle. His 16 popups generated are already twice as many as last year. Pitch modeling loves what he’s doing. Greene procures a 126 Stuff+ grade (105 Pitching+), despite the drop in strikeouts. His 60 grade fastball (57.3%, 1.5 RV/100) is something that should trouble the Cubs (-0.31 wFA/C is bottom quarter of the league).
Opp wRC+: 97 (incl. Fri)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.39
Written here on Monday, before Justin Steele’s last start…
Cause for optimism comes from pitch modeling with Steele’s 2.12 Bot ERA and 107 Pitching+, despite a 99 Stuff+ grade. The four-seam (60.5%, -1.2 RV/100, 68 PB grade) and slider (28.5%, -1.7 RV/100, 62 PB grade) still appear to be elite pitches, despite disastrous results thus far.
The results were anything but disastrous when he struck out eight of 25 Brewers over seven shutout, three hit innings last time out. His 12.9 SwStr% was Steele’s highest mark since returning from the IL. Still with six home runs on seven barrels, his 4.45 FIP matches his ERA, but remaining estimators range from a 3.21 xERA to a 3.73 xFIP, as he’s now up to an 18 K-BB%.
Opp wRC+: 94 (10.1 K-BB%)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.49
DFS Notes: A five game Saturday night slate (only on DK) includes one dome, one concerning spot and only one spot where it gets much above 60 degrees. The Dodgers top the board at 4.96 implied runs with the Phillies and Mariners barely reaching four runs behind them. This is a really tough slate with a lot of good pitching, including the only likely positive run environment on the slate in Philly tonight.
We start with some pitching weather at Wrigley that includes some rain that could push the game back a few hours, but hopefully not a full day. Temps around 60 with a near double digit win in from right. Both pitchers are fine, preferring Greene slightly because the Reds have shown quality plate discipline against LHP. The Reds have the lower run total (3.29) with the Cubs still below four (3.71). Bats are very unattractive here. It’s a five game slate, but considering the quality of pitching along with the environment, I can’t find anyone to highlight here. Leiter is the only top half of the Cubs pen arm who didn’t throw at least 20 pitches last night. The top four on the Cincinnati depth chart all threw as well with only Cruz above 20 pitches though.
Angels @ Mariners
Reid Detmers has allowed 36 runs (35 earned) over his last 36.2 innings. He’s done this with a 21.5 K%, 9.3 BB% and 11.9% Barrels/BBE. He’s also done this with a 13.1 SwStr% and a decent 37.3% hard contact rate. Over this span, Detmers has a 3.37 Bot ERA with all of his pitches receiving above average grades including a 62 curveball and changeup that are better than their full season grades. If that sounds crazy, he also has near average 97 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades. What in the world is going on over this span? A .349 BABIP, 54.5 LOB% and nine of his 14 barrels leaving the park. On the season, a 4.10 FIP is Detmers’s only estimator not more than two runs below his 5.76 ERA. I won’t say he’s been unlucky, but it does look he should have the skillset to turn it around.
Opp wRC+: 96 (25.6 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.78
I like Bryce Miller. His new splitter has done wonders in solving his issues with LHBs (.277 wOBA this year, .387 last year). He’s thrown seven quality starts of two runs or less and has some tremendous pitch modeling numbers (112 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+, 2.71 Bot ERA), including that 72 grade splitter that the Angels have trouble hitting (-0.41 wFS/C). While his estimators run a nice, tight range from a 3.71 SIERA to a 4.25 FIP, they’re almost all worse, each one of them, worse than every single one of Detmers’s estimators. Not by much, but just that they is a shock, no?
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.70
You probably see where I’m going here. It’s insane how remarkably similar these teams are in this matchup, yet the Angels are +145 dogs.
DFS Notes: The only place we don’t have to worry about weather effects is the most negative run environment in the league. As you can see from the above, I think Detmers has some value at $6.5K and am strongly considering him for my SP2 spot in a great spot. However, the Mariners are one of three teams to reach four implied runs and Detmers certainly has blowup potential, so cases can be made for exposure to either side of this matchup. RHBs are within two points of a .315 wOBA and xwOBA against Detmers since last year with LHBs above .335. J.P. Crawford (124 wRC+, .115 ISO v LHP since LY) may be my favorite value on the board and I’d even consider using him in lineups with Detmers. Mitch Garver (155, .150) and Dylan Moore (132, .264) are very affordable too. We can say the same for the other side too. The Angels are at just 3.38 implied runs and we love what Miller is doing with his splitter, but Angels are cheap with Calhoun (109, .172) and Rengifo (103, .158) looking like the best values. Munoz (56) has thrown four of the last six days. Garcia and Moore threw 20+ pitches last night.
Cardinals @ Phillies
Sonny Gray has gone four starts without authoring a quality starts and was pulled after 74 pitches and five shutout innings against the Cubs last time, despite striking out eight of 18 batters. He hasn’t hit 90 pitches in any of the four in fact. Aside from the questionable workload, the numbers suggest he’s having the best season of his career with a 26.6 K-BB%, 34.1% hard contact rate and only his xERA (3.00) reaching three. PitchingBot (2.35 Bot ERA) grades everything he throws average or better including a four-seamer, sinker, cutter and sweeper all well above 60.
Opp wRC+: 109 (20.3 K%) (incl. Fri)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.85
It’s not often a 22.5 K-BB% is the inferior rate in a matchup, but that’s what Ranger Suarez is dealing with here, along with a similar contact profile (4.6% Barrels/BBE, 31.4% hard contact rate), but no single estimator reaching three. Suarez’s ground ball rate (53.8%) is 10 points higher than Gray’s and he’s failed to complete at least six innings just once in his last 10 starts. Ranger is more command (102 Pitching+) than stuff (84 Stuff+), but does have a 60 grade sinker via PB.
Opp wRC+: 81 (19.1 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.28
DFS Notes: As mentioned, the top run environment on the slate, slightly better with temps near 80, though no wind to speak of. The Phillies are slightly above four runs with the Cardinals at 3.34. Suarez has been so good and gets so much contact on the ground, that I don’t know what to do with St Louis bats. It’s the most hitter friendly environment on the board, but the Nolans are the only projected bats exceeding a .140 ISO v LHP since last year with Gorman the only one above .160. The workload for Gray scares me off him, but I do like some Philly bats here, despite Gray holding batters from either side below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since last year. LHBs are at exactly .286 (both wOBA and xwOBA). Schwarber (117 wRC+, .265 ISO v RHP since last year) and Harper (149, .224) are the top bats here, but very expensive. Brandon Marsh (137, .191) has the next best wRC+ and ISO among those projected. Man, what a tough board. Why am I doing this to myself?
Yankees @ Giants
Cody Poteet made a strong start in Cleveland a month and a half ago (6 IP – 1 ER – 1 HR – 0 BB – 4 K), which encapsulates all of his major league work for the season so far. The 29 year-old has thrown just 64.2 major league innings (11.2 K-BB%, 9.2% Barrels/BBE). He has a 20 K-BB% over seven starts at AAA and has occasionally flashed interesting numbers at that level. I believe the word we’re looking for here though, is serviceable.
Opp wRC+: 102 (67 L7 days) (incl. Fri)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.78
Four straight quality starts for Logan Webb, over which he’s allowed six runs (four earned) in 26 innings with a 17.5 K-BB%, but an increase in hard contact rate (64.3%). Webb is now up to a 52.8% hard contact rate and even with 56.9% of it on the ground, the results is a 4.65 xERA. The K-BB increase is great and brings him up to 14% on the season, generating contact neutral estimators below three and a half that are still well above his 2.74 ERA because just two of his 15 barrels have left the yard. The defense and the park are doing some work here. Last year was the first time Webb ever had a hard contact rate eclipse 40% (45.5%) and pitch modeling still loves him (111 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+, 3.41 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 129 (10.1 K-BB%, 16.6 HR/FB)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.13
DFS Notes: Temps not above 60 with a 16 mph wind out to center that is mostly neutralized by the park and with both teams at 3.75 implied runs, I think we have to look for offense here. I think we have to attack the unknown in Poteet on this slate. Yaz, Estrada, Chapman and Soler all with at least a 98 wRC+ and .170 ISO against RHP since last year and those are the only four in the lineup that reach either mark. Estrada, Chapman, Bailey, Ramos, Wisely all above a 110 wRC+ L30 days. Despite how well Webb is pitching, I think the hard hit rate makes him attackable too. Aaron Judge (179, .344) has been spitting fire with a 296 wRC+ L30 days and hit a pair of long balls last night. Juan Soto’s (172, .277) 173 over that same span pales in comparison. Anthony Volpe (92, .160) is also above a 140 wRC+ over the last month and Webb has been worse against RHBs (.295 wOBA, .314 xwOBA since last year).
Rockies @ Dodgers
Dakota Hudson shut down the Dodgers last night, so Cal Quantrill should dominate, right? Eight of nine quality starts for him, only above three runs in the first one. Quantrill even has a 19.7 K-BB% over the last five, bringing his season rate up to…exactly 10%. He’s generating over half his contact on the ground (51.3%) over this quality start run with a perfectly average contact profile in terms of authority. What’s going on here? Spiltters (34.4%) three times as often as last year. The pitch has a 28.3% whiff rate, 3.1 RV/100 and 51 PB grade. It’s not the greatest pitch of all time, but it’s the best one he throws more than 10% of the time and has made him a respectable pitcher. Estimators ranging from a 3.86 dERA to a 4.39 FIP are all above his 3.53 ERA (79.6 LOB%), but this is what we call an Ace in Colorado.
Opp wRC+: 118 (122 Home) (incl. Fri)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.64
Yoshi Yama has an impressive 23.1 K-BB% with estimators ranging from a 2.65 dERA to a 3.40 xERA all below his 3.51 ERA, but with 8.8% Barrels/BBE and a hard hit rate in the mid-40s (43.8%), there are still some issues with the fastball he’s throwing 37.8% of the time (.342 wOBA, .382 xwOBA). The curve (24.9%, 63 PB grade) and splitter (26%, 55 PB grade) are still superior pitches, but if he can’t consistently locate his hittable fastball better, he’s going to continue to be good instead of great (which is what the Dodgers thought they paid for), as illustrated by his 3.53 Bot ERA and 100 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 83 (88 Road)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.79
DFS Notes: Temps around 60 with a near double digit wind blowing out to center. Stack your Dodgers, right? LHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Quantrill since last year. Well, the splitter has relegated LHBs to a .296 wOBA that’s lower than RHBs (.304) against him this year. I think you go underweight here and don’t even really hate rostering Quantrill as your SP2, though Yamamoto is still my top pitcher in this great spot and I’m not rostering Colorado bats despite his fastball issues. Shohei (201 wRC+, .368 ISO v RHP since LY), Betts (164, .232) and Freeman (163, .220) look great on the surface, but are all very expensive. Heyward (114, .186) might work as a value play, but as mentioned, I think I’d go underweight in favor of San Francisco tonight. It’s just a crazy five game slate that I’m really sorry I took the time to write about now.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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