Finished one LAA pen meltdown of a sweep on Thursday. I'm actually glad that's the one that lost because I forgot to post the game writeup here on Wednesday night. On the DFS end, Flaherty pitched well, but that was about it and everyone had him. We have 15 game to get to on Friday, including a 13 game DFS slate. A few more write ups to go, but five plays on the board already.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Reds @ Cubs
Graham Ashcraft has just a 9.1 K-BB% and even just a league average ground ball rate over his last six starts (43.5%), allowing hard contact on 44.9% of batted balls on the season. Pitch modeling believes he has great stuff (113 Stuff+), but uses it in suboptimal ways (98 Pitching+, 4.25 Bot ERA). All estimators are within half a run of his 4.67 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 96 (73 L7 days)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.37
Javier Assad has exceeded a six percent strikeout rate in just one of his last eight starts (9% against the Pirates), yet he’s struck out more than four three times in that span with a high of eight Cardinals last time out. With a 6.2 SwStr% and 92.3 Z-Contact% on the season, his 22.4 K% (3.61 K/SwStr) is incredibly unsustainable, which makes estimators ranging from a 3.50 xERA to a 4.13 SIERA unsustainable as well, never mind the 2.17 ERA (.242 BABIP, 87.2 LOB%). Pitch modeling gives him an 88 Stuff+ grade and 4.81 Bot ERA. Not a single pitch receives a PB grade above 45. Assad throws a sinker (44 grade) 34.8% of the time, more often than any other pitch. This is a pitch the Reds have had their second most success against (0.17 wSI/C) and are just outside the top third of the league in terms of run value against.
Opp wRC+: 81 (27 K%)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.37
That strikeout percentage for the Reds above is a bit deceiving. The healthier lineup they are running out there now against RHP includes just four batters above a 21.5 K% against RHP since last year. DraftKings has already posted strikeout props for most pitchers for Friday and I’m getting a jump on what I think is a bad number (u4.5 +125). Reread the first sentence of Assad’s blurb above. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 12:45 EST: Temps in the 70s, though a bit of a discrepancy on the nearly double digit wind direction (in from right, out to left or across the field), though no discrepancy on the very pitcher friendly Bill Miller behind the plate. PCA in for Busch. Smallest of gains (1%) on Assad K prop. All I wanted to do was avoid the pitcher friendliest umpire there, but nope.
Cardinals @ Phillies
With just a 17.9 K% and 43.5% hard contact rate, Miles Mikolas doesn’t have an estimator below four, despite a 5.2 BB%. The pitch modeling numbers are also around average when adding location factors in (100 Pitching+, 3.70 Bot ERA). He’s actually been a bit unfortunate this year with a 64.8 LOB%.
Opp wRC+: 109 (20.3 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.96
Aaron Nola has seven quality starts, five of at least seven innings. With a 16 K-BB% and 6.1% Barrels/BBE, but 9.8 SwStr% and 90 Z-Contact%, most of his value is in the workload this year. Estimators ranging from a 3.41 dERA to a 3.79 FIP are a bit above his 3.04 ERA. Also with marginal pitch modeling statistics, the curveball (31.3%, 1.4 RV/100, 69 PB grade) is the key to his arsenal and a pitch the Cardinals have struggled against (-0.26 wCU/C).
Opp wRC+: 107 (134 L7 days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.3
Update 3:15 EST: Temps around 70 with a light wind in from left. The pitcher friendly Doug Eddings presides behind the plate. The Cards are treating this as old timers game with Crawford and Carpenter replacing Winn and the injured Nootbaar. This is a pretty hefty line move (Cards now +168) for a pitcher who has been more good than great in Nola this season. After their recent hot streak, the Cardinals are now only two points behind the Phillies in wRC+ against RHP with similar defenses. The Phils do have a bullpen edge too, but this is just a bit too much.
Rays @ Orioles
Seven straight for Aaron Civale without a quality start, allowing 30 runs (29 earned) in 33.2 innings over that span. Four straight single digit SwStr rate games bring his season down to 9.1% and start to bring his 23.4 K% into question, but he gets a lot of called strikes (19.2%) and with 11 of 13 barrels leaving the yard, non-FIP estimators are more than a run and a half below his 5.72 ERA (63.9 LOB%), running as low as a 3.73 xFIP. Pitch modeling thinks he’s actually the problem because he throws six different pitches, with half of them grading below 45 (PB), including the cutter (30.2%, 0.5 RV/100, 42 grade). Civale throws no pitch more and only one team punishes cutters more than the Orioles (2.00 wFC/C). We could note that he’s been gaining velocity, but not to any great effect yet.
Opp wRC+: 102 (116 Home, 126 L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.49
Albert Suarez started three games in April, but was then moved to the pen until six days ago, when facing 15 White Sox, but needing 80 pitches to do so. He throws his 95 mph heater 58.4% of the time and none of his other three pitches even 20%. The pitch has a positive run value (1.2 RV/100), but below average grade (45 PB). The changeup (17.7%, 3.4 RV/100, 67 PB grade) could be an interesting pitch if he threw it more. Suarez merits just an 87 Stuff+ grade, but has only walked 7% with three barrels (3.7%), generating a 2.76 xERA, but additional non-FIP estimators around four, which we’d expect to increase in a starting role.
Opp wRC+: 94 (87 Road, 70 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.39
DFS Notes: On a 13 game slate that includes five domes and one troublesome spot in Kansas City, most other parks should play close to their true nature with only a pair of west coast parks reaching much below 70 degrees and little wind effects. A pair of offenses above five implied runs with four more reaching four and a half with exactly half the board below four. There are plenty of pitching options on this slate without a clear top arm (especially with Cease at risk), including some pitchers in great matchups that I normally wouldn’t consider otherwise. I don’t even think you have to worry about ownership here, though I haven’t run through the games with my DFS thinking cap on yet. Let’s see where it goes.
In the 70s with a light breeze in from left in Baltimore, the Rays are on the bottom half of the board (3.71) with the Orioles on the top half (4.29). On the O’s side of things, LHBs have a .314 wOBA and xwOBA against Civale since last year. I like Henderson (144 wRC+, .293 ISO v RHP since last year) as a top overall bat, though not the top SS. Civale hasn’t been at his best lately, so some Baltimore stack exposure in mult entry is necessary. I really have no feelings about Suarez here, but am not on Rays bats. The Tampa Bay pen has all been heavily used in recent days, while Baltimore is rested.
Update 4:30 EST: Arozarena sits.
Pirates @ Blue Jays
Bailey Falter has yet to be confirmed and can you really blame the Pirates? While he has four quality starts, three of at least seven innings, over his last six, he’s done so with just a 9.5 K-BB%, 10.3% Barrels/BBE and 50% hard hit rate over that span. Season estimators are all more than a run above his 3.55 ERA and pitch modeling doesn’t grant him a single above average offering with 84 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 98 (8 K-BB%, 7.5 HR/FB)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.17
Jose Berrios has nine quality starts, four of at least seven innings with a league average 13.2 K-BB% and 45.7% hard hit rate. His best estimator is a 3.81 dERA that’s nearly a full run above a 2.94 ERA (87.7 LOB%), but Berrios receives league average pitch metrics when location is included (100 Pitching+, 3.84 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 84 (90 Road)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 4.43
DFS Notes: A neutral park with the roof closed (98 Run Factor Statcast) that moves up to 104 on average with the roof open, the Blue Jays are near the top of the board (4.79 run total) with the Pirates (3.71) more than a run below. Still assuming Falter here, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 xwOBA against him since last year. Davis Schneider (192 wRC+, .402 ISO v LHP since LY) is a top bat and value on either site. Danny Jansen (122, .263) is my favorite catcher. Top half stacks look great here if you can afford them. Andrew McCutchen (109, .143) has some value with a 140 wRC+ over the last month, as does Bryan Reynolds (114, .208). Batters from both sides of the plate have a .328 xwOBA against Berrios since last year. I don’t hate Berrios in this spot either. Only one projected Pittsburgh batter is below a 20% strikeout rate against RHP since last year.
Update 4:45 EST: I've seen one twitter account mentioning an open roof, which be a small boost to bats. No Varsho against the LHP. I've played the over on the team total for the Jays (4.5 -105). With estimators closer to five than four for Falter and a bottom third of the league defense and L30 day pen estimators. TOR may have a 99 wRC+ v LHP, but 105 at Home and 124 L7 days.
Tigers @ Red Sox
After a brief tick up, Kenta Maeda his having trouble cracking 90 mph again and struck out just one of 18 Blue Jays in his return to action after a two and a half week hiatus. Down to a 15.8 K% and 10.3% Barrels/BBE, Maeda’s best estimator is a 4.81 SIERA. The problem is that he’s still using the fastball (26.8%, -1.8 RV/100, 37 PB grade) to set up the splitter (29.9%, -1.9 RV/100, 51 PB grade), but batters are just smashing the former first. You know who likes fastballs? The Red Sox (0.34 wFA/C is top five). That’s who.
Opp wRC+: 98 (83 Home & L7 days)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.95
It’s nine quality starts for Tanner Houck in 11 tries, while he’s faced at least 25 batters eight times. Not only is he neutralizing LHBs with his new splitter (23.6%, 1.4 RV/100, 51 grade), but Houck is becoming a workhorse for this rotation, crushing RHBs with his slider (41.8%, 2.6 RV/100, 65 PB grade) and dropping estimators no worse than a 3.23 xERA with a 19.8 K-BB% and 4.1% Barrels/BBE). Pitch modeling loves seeing Houck doing his thing (108 Stuff+ & Pitching+, 2.89 Bot ERA)
Opp wRC+: 100 (119 L7 days)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.26
While the Red Sox have the much better bullpen too, I actually have them as a larger favorite for the F5 because of the massive gap between starting pitchers. There’s a near two run gap in estimators and 20 point gap in Stuff+ grades.
DFS Notes: Temps near 70 with a near double digit wind across the field, Boston could play near where it normally does, making it the likely top run environment on this slate. That said and despite their recent hot streak, the Tigers remain on the bottom half of the board (3.76) and with Carpenter injured, they’re only running out three LHBs normally. Houck has improved against them anyway, but also still dominates RHBs (below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA since last year). Houck may be my top pitcher with Cease at risk and is currently in my DK single entry lineup. If you believe he’ll regress (and I don’t), then Perez (108 wRC+, .191 ISO v RHP) and Greene (131, .196 since LY) may appeal to you. The Red Sox are a full run higher (4.75) and Jarren Duran (125, .211) is one of my top bats on the board, along with Wilyer Abreu (153, .229). Rafael Devers (138, .256) is up there too. RHBs have the better .332 wOBA and xwOBA against Maeda since last year with LHBs at .314, .293 which still certainly plays in this environment, especially as those numbers have increased this year alone.
Update 4:15 EST: The Tigers are grasping onto Houck's previous issues against lefties, digging up McKinstry and Baddoo to give them five at the expenses of Torkelson and Baez. Doesn't change enough for me, unless the weather upgrades for Cease. In terms of line movement, Red Sox F5 up 4.32%. (Sigh, though the Nats did make it 3-5-2 last 10 with a four percent or better gain, though that was entirely due to a pitching change.)
Nationals @ Guardians
The Nationals are still letting Patrick Corbin face 24 batters per start. With a 13.2 K% and 48.8% hard contact rate, he doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half. RHBs are above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, LHBs above .330. He actually has a pretty good cutter (60 PB grade) and the Guardians have trouble with those (-0.92 wFC/C is fifth worst in baseball), but he throws it just 16.9% of the time, electing to throw his slider (45 PB grade) 28% of the time and the Guardians smoke those (0.37 wSL/C is top quarter of the league).
Opp wRC+: 121 (112 Home, 130 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.92
I struggle with Tanner Bibee. The overall package with an 18.3 K-BB% generates estimators all within half a run of his 3.99 ERA, but he’s been either dominant or gotten shelled in most of his starts. There’s been very little in between. Pitch modeling loves him (102 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 3.18 Bot ERA) with all pitches grading above average, starring a changeup (18.2%, 3.4 RV/100, 66 PB grade) that the Nationals should have trouble with (-0.45 wCH/C is fifth worst in the league).
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.04
DFS Notes: Temps near 70 with a light breeze in from left keeps Cleveland one of the more negative run environments on this board. Don’t care, you’re still hammering Corbin with Cleveland bats (4.51). David Fry (202 wRC+, .276 ISO v LHP since last year) is one of my top bats on the board, but I prefer to use Jansen at Cather, especially on DK and would play him as an outfielder. Tyler Freeman (85, .169) is a stronger DK value. LHBs are fine here too. Load up your Guardians. The Nationals have the second lowest run total on the board (2.99). Bibee is volatile and the Nats don’t strike out a ton, but he’s fine and one of the top pitchers overall on this board, just not my first or second choice. Harvey (34) and Florio (22) have both thrown back to back games, while Cleveland was off yesterday.
Update 4:55 EST: Swish Analytics now has Bill Miller listed for the umpire in this game, not the Cubs this afternoon. Seems they swapped their Millers. Good news for Bibee backers if true. Kwan is back, but it's Hedges who gets the boot against the lefty with Fry catching, which, maybe bad news for Bibee? Hedges is a great defensive catcher.
Diamondbacks @ Mets
Jordan Montgomery has yet to gain back any of the 1.7 mph he’s lost off his fastball since last year. He has gone at least six innings in five of his seven starts (four quality starts), but has also only struck out more than four once. He’s now down to a 14.2 K%, but the good news is that that’s likely to increase with a 9.6 SwStr% and he’s continued to manage contact well (5.3% Barrels/BBE, 34.6% hard hit rate). While a 4.12 FIP is his only estimator more than a run below a 4.69 ERA, a 5.00 dERA is the only one above it. Pitch modeling only sees one above average pitch here (curveball 30.4%, 1.5 RV/100, 56 grade) with below average overall grades (94 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+, 4.45 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 90 (20.6 K%)
DEF: 17
B30: 3.9
Luis Severino has become a ground ball pitcher (52.4%) with his best pitch the sinker (1.9 RV/100, 61 PB grade) that he’s thrown just 18.8% of the time. With all the ground balls, he’s allowed just 4.2% Barrels/BBE, producing a 3.43 ERA that’s not too far away from a 3.22 ERA, though his contact neutral estimators are about a run higher with a K-BB sitting at 9.8%. None of Severino’s other pitches hit a 50 PB grade, despite a 3.98 Bot ERA and 106 Stuff+ grade that suggests he still has something left in the tank.
Opp wRC+: 92 (43 L7 days)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 4.20
DFS Notes: With temps in the 70s and a near double digit wind blowing across the field, Citi should remain it’s normally negative run environment true self with a pair of bottom half teams (Mets 3.85, Diamondbacks 3.65). Montgomery has managed contact well enough that I’m not attacking him here, though Alonso (127, .294) may be back. The same for Severino with his new ground ball lean, though, if we include last year’s numbers LHBs are still above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him and Corbin Carroll still has a 125 wRC+ and .227 ISO against LHP, while he costs less than $3K on FD. Pederson (126, .195) and Marte (113, .198) would be in play in that manner too. There are not enough strikeouts in this Arizona lineup to make Severino appeal to me. Montgomery’s numbers are popping here and he costs less than $8K, but I can’t figure out why and don’t trust the lack of upside here. Maybe it’s because they’re letting him go through the lineup three times. Vientos and Martinez both have 30% strikeout rates against LHP since last year though. Mets pen is still a mess with Garrett (26) and Ottavino (39) both worked two of the last three days and Diaz and Lopez gone. The D’Backs used everybody except Sewald yesterday, but just six pitches for Ginkel.
Update 4:05 EST: In addition to the negative run environment, the pitcher leaning Lance Barrett is behind the plate. The Mets have gone with eight RHBs and Montgomery does have an issue (.313 wOBA, .324 xwOBA since last year), but also takes the lowest strikeout rate on the board (McNeil) out of the lineup. Nido joins Martinez and Vientos above a 30 K% v LHP since last year if you really want to take that risk.
Rangers @ Marlins
Jose Urena still generates ground balls (53.2% in four starts), but not much else (9.2 K-BB% in four starts). His best season estimator is a 3.92 xERA that’s more than one-third of a run above his 3.53 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 89 (91 Home, 89 L7 days)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.52
I want to issue an apology. I’ve been jokingly calling this young man Six Toe and shouldn’t be doing so. I can’t even prove that it’s true. He deserves to be called by his truthful name from now on. So Sixrun Sanchez completed five innings for the first time this season last time out, but with the same pair of strikeouts and walks he’s accumulated in three straight starts now. In fact, he has just a 2.7 K-BB% on the season, hence the 6.25 ERA. He’s only allowed 5.3% Barrels/BBE and only two of those six barrels have gone out, so it could actually be worse. His best non-FIP estimator and only one below five is a 4.90 xERA. Sanchez only has a single below average graded pitch via PitchingBot, his fastball (29.6%, -1.6 RV/100, 40 grade), but just an 85 Stuff+ grade (95 Pitching+) overall.
Opp wRC+: 103 (19.4 K%)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.75
DFS Notes: Playing with a 102 run factor over the last three years with the roof closed, both teams reach four implied runs here with the Marlins at 4.01 and Rangers at 4.49. With RHBs within a point of a .365 wOBA and xwOBA against Urena and LHBs at .341 and .318 since last year, I have some interest in Miami bats. Better off played as a stack, due to Urena’s ground ball nature, Gordon, Anderson and Fortes are the only three projected Marlins below a 95 wRC+ against RHP since last year, adding Bell as the only other one below a .170 ISO. Chisholm on DK not-withstanding, all other Marlins are fairly cheap. On the Texas end, LHBs are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Sanchez. Corey Seager (178, .311) may be the top bat on the board and the guy I’m jamming into lineups. Leody Taveras (105, .167) is a great value out of the sixth slot. RHBs have a .367 wOBA, but .315 xwOBA against Sanchez, who was only slightly better in his last start.
Update 5:05 EST: De La Cruz sits, replaced by Rivera. Burger bats second. Nice value (105, .230 v RHP since LY).
Athletics @ Braves
J.P. Sears isn’t missing a ton of bats, though his 9.5 SwStr% and league average called strike rate deserve a bit better than a 16.2 K% and pitch modeling is high on his arsenal. PitchingBot only sees one below average offering (changeup 20%, 1.8 RV/100, 46 grade) with an excellent sweeper (32.1%, 1.8 RV/100, 62 grade) and overall 3.35 Bot ERA. Sears also has a 103 Stuff+ grade. Yet, a 4.23 xERA is his only estimator not more than half a run above his 3.88 ERA. Considering the swinging strike rate and pitch modeling, there may be more upside than estimators give him credit for.
Opp wRC+: 113 (88 L7 days)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.54
Reynaldo Lopez is working with an 82.7 LOB%, while just two of his nine barrels (6.6%) have left the yard. His 14.4 K-BB% is barely above league average with estimators running as high as a 4.03 dERA and all non-FIP ones more than two runs above his 1.73 ERA. Lopez also has below average pitch modeling numbers with the curveball (10.9%, 3.3 RV/100, 53 PB grade) his only above average pitch. Expect regression to come for his 82.7 LOB% and 3.8 HR/FB.
Opp wRC+: 102 (26.5 K%)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.98
Lopez still has estimators about three-quarters of a run better than Sears, though pitch modeling might close the gap slightly. The Braves only have moderate edges on offense (11 pt wRC+ difference v RHP) and defense, while Oakland pen estimators are nearly half a run better L30 days. You know where I’m going here (+184) against a floundering team.
DFS Notes: They start with temps near 80 and a light wind in from left. The Braves are second on the board (5.17) with the A’s close to the bottom (3.33). If Sears was showing a little bit more swing and miss, I wouldn’t mind him here. The Braves have been scuffling since Acuna went down, revealing issues across the entire lineup this season. That said, you probably need to hedge with some Atlanta exposure in multi-entry. Every RHBs + Olson exceeds a 110 and .210 ISO v LHP since last season and even Harris and Kelenic are average. It’s just that Ozuna and Olson are the only two above an 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. I’m more inclined to consider Lopez on this slate than I normally would. Although the A’s have been average against RHP, there’s still plenty of strikeouts in this lineup. That said, I still think Toro (128, .160) and Bleday (119, .191) are strong values here. Seth Brown is the only projected Oakland bat below a 100 wRC+ v RHP since last year, Schuemann the only one below a .150 ISO. They have five guys, including the two mentioned above a 130 wRC+ L30 days too. The xwOBAs against Lopez are about 35 to 40 points above actual wOBAs for both left and right-handed batters. Unfortunately, the A’s probably won’t have Miller (60 pitches last three days) with virtually everyone else in the bullpen pitching two straight days as well. This is a concern if betting the A’s too and it’s on me for not checking the box score since it was an afternoon game, but that also gives the rest of the bullpen a few more hours of rest. Yeah, they're gonna blow a late lead tonight.
Update 5:15 EST: A's jam five LHBs in there tonight. No Langeliers. Only a 0.73% loss on the A's, despite the worn out bullpen.
Padres @ Royals
Dylan Cease has allowed 12 runs over 16.1 innings with four home runs on five barrels (10%), but also a 23.7 K-BB% that fits his season mark (23.8%). The .391 BABIP over this span has run his season mark only up to .243, yet he somehow only has a 66.5 LOB%. Sequencing gives him a 3.29 ERA that’s above all of his estimators with only two of his other 12 barrels leaving the yard. You can call these last three starts a heavy dose of regression for a pitcher legitimately having a career year. Pitch modeling absolutely adores what Cease is throwing (120 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 3.33 Bot ERA). He’s still basically throwing two pitches, but a 58 grade slider (42%, 1 RV/100) and 55 grade fastball (43%, 0.8 RV/100) are getting it done and the Royals don’t like fastballs (-0.29 wFA/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 99 (18.9 K%) (Incl. Thur)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.25
Although he’s done it against below average offenses (Mariners, Tigers, Rays), it’s safe to say Michael Wacha has found his way again with just five runs over his last 19 innings (18.3 K-BB%, 24% hard contact rate). With a league average 13.3 K-BB% on the season, Wacha has been an exceptional contact manager (5.3% Barrels/BBE, 32.1% hard hit rate) registering a 3.38 xERA that’s nearly a run below his 4.31 ERA, which only a 4.35 dERA is higher than. The 69.8 LOB% is a bit low, but the 8.2 HR/FB may be sustainable, considering the contact profile and the power dampening home park. PitchingBot loves the changeup (32.4%, 2 RV/100, 77 grade), but also sees the fastball (23.6%, -3.6 RV/100, 60 grade) as better than it’s results. Wacha has a stunning 2.95 Bot ERA, but 91 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 118 (19.4 K%)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.56
DFS Notes: This is the one game with some weather concern, though not a for sure washout. Ignoring that, temps just below 70 with a near double digit wind in from right probably makes this park the most affected by weather. Without concern, Cease would be my top pitcher on the board, despite the lack of strikeouts in the Kansas City lineup. Houck and some others aren’t far behind, but his numbers have exceptional this season, even with some struggles as of late. Wacha hasn’t been bad either, but adding that Padres having superior plate discipline to the weather risk, takes him out of play. With the Royals at just 3.48 implied runs and the Padres at 4.02, we’re not really all that concerned with bats here. Aside from Cease, this is a game we could afford to lose.
Update 5:25 EST: More optimism that this could play, I'm torn between Cease, Houck and Bibee, whom I've upgraded after lineups and umpires. No weather risk, I'd probably go with Cease. I may have to flip a three headed coin.
Twins @ Astros
Pablo Lopez has been shelled for 16 runs over his last 16 innings, including five home runs on six barrels (13.8%), but still has a 16.0 K-BB% over that span. He’s allowed 9.0% Barrels/BBE on the season, but with a 23.7 K-BB% that generates a 3.26 xERA, which is Lopez’s only estimator less than two full runs below his 5.26 ERA. The biggest problem has been a 63.6 LOB%, which makes me suspect those barrels are occurring with men on base because his 39.5% hard contact rate isn’t terrible. When it comes to pitch modeling, Lopez has a below average 97 Stuff+ grade, but 103 Pitching+ and 3.15 Bot ERA. The curveball (11.7%, -1 RV/100 42 grade) is his only PB grade below 55. Perhaps the changeup (19%, -2 RV/100, 58 PB grade) will get healthy against the Astros (-1.23 wCH/C is fourth worst in the majors).
Opp wRC+: 111 (18.7 K%, 58 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.12
Simply put, Ronel Blanco has been the beneficiary of a .200 BABIP and 92.4 LOB%. All of his estimators are more than a run above his 1.99 ERA and contact neutral ones are more than two runs. Pitch modeling gives him a 4.05 Bot ERA and 97 Pitching+ grade with an even worse 95 Stuff+. His fastball (34.8%, -1 RV/100, 45 PB grade) might be in trouble against the best fastball hitting team in the league (0.82 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 1
B30: 3.69
Blanco has a 3.16 xERA that’s his best estimator and it’s 0.1 points better than Lopez’s worst non-FIP estimator. By my weighted averages, Lopez is about three-quarters of a run better before we even get to pitch modeling. I’ll stay away from bullpens, but play the Twins F5 (-105).
DFS Notes: A domed run neutral, power friendly environment includes the Astros and Twins at exactly four runs tonight. I believe Lopez will eventually come around, but this is not the spot where I want to test it and Blanco is overpriced at $10K, especially on DK. With LHBs at a career .295 wOBA, but .338 xwOBA against him, I’m actually playing Kirilloff (126 wRC+, .192 ISO v RHP since LY) at first base for just $3.5K on DK. Every LHB in the projected lineup exceeds a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO v RHP since last year, though some have struggled this year, especially Julien (48 wRC+ L30 days). Lopez has had some vulnerability to LHBs since last season, but Statcast takes away exactly 40 points of that. I think Alvarez (161, .284) and Tucker (149, .250) are too expensive here.
Update 5:35 EST: Gain of 1.4% on MIN F5.
White Sox @ Brewers
Erick Fedde has thrown at least six shutout innings in three of his last four starts with a five run effort against the Blue Jays, striking out only a pair, in between. Much improved since returning from overseas, estimators ranging from a 3.40 xERA to a 3.87 FIP are still well above his 2.80 ERA (.244 BABIP, 83.6 LOB%) and we also have to consider a 7.9 SwStr% with just a league average CStr% may have trouble holding up Fedde’s 22.1 K% over the long haul. Pitching Bot (3.60 ERA) likes him a bit more than Stuff/Pitching+ (97, 100).
Opp wRC+: 118 (122 Home) (incl Thur)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.24
The Brewers have not yet Tobias Myers hit 85 pitches yet and only once above 65 since his first start. While he’s stranded 88.5% of his runners, six of his seven barrels (10.9%) have also left the yard, generating a 5.77 FIP, but ERA matching 4.43 xERA. Myers has also walked a few too many, while his 24 K% is not well supported by an 8.8 SwStr%. If we’re looking to pitch modeling to tell us more, well, it doesn’t. Stuff/Pitching+ believes him to be below average (95, 98), while PitchingBot (3.63 ERA) likes his two most frequent pitches (four seam 36.7%, 61 grade, cutter 27.6%, 57 grade). Myers has shown a reverse split so far with RHBs smashing him for a .350+ wOBA and xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 74 (70 Road, 63 L7 days)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.68
DFS Notes: The Brewers will open the roof with decent weather, as they did yesterday. The average run factor increases from 94 to 98 when they do so. The White Sox have a 3.48 team total with the Brewers more than a run higher (4.52). The White Sox are bad, but don’t strike out a ton and Myers has too much of a workload concern with a below average SwStr%. I expect him to be more popular than he should be here. While I’m not completely sold on Fedde, batters from either side are between a .276 and .313 wOBA and xwOBA against him since returning. I’m not seeing any exception values for the Brewers, but don’t hate Yelich (139 wRC+, .193 ISO v RHP since LY) or Bauers (93, .210). The Milwaukee pen has been banged up and heavily used this week. You may see a lot of lesser relievers.
Update 6:55 EST: Roof open, but just 68 degrees. Late MIL LU, Hoskins back. Played Fedde u4.5 Ks (+124) and MIL o4.5 runs (+104).
Rockies @ Dodgers
Dakota Hudson gets away from Coors, but it won’t feel like it, facing the Dodgers in a near neutral environment. Still generating ground balls (55.9% with just 6.4% Barrels/BBE), a 43.6% hard hit rate and 0 K-BB% washes away most of the good that does with all estimators below, but within half a run of his 5.54 ERA. None of the three pitches Hudson throws more than 15% of the time reaches a 45 PitchingBot grade with a 5.16 Bot ERA that matches estimators.
Opp wRC+: 119 (126 Home & L7 days) (incl. Thur)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.77
Aside from six shutout innings with just three hits and seven strikeouts against Cincinnati, Walker Buehler has been showing plenty of rust. The velocity is in line with his 2022 and 2021 averages, but he’s only struck out a total of 10, while allowing exactly three runs in fewer than six innings in each of his other three starts against the Marlins, Padres and Reds again. Buehler has allowed just three barrels with a 30.4% hard hit rate, but has just a 7.4 SwStr%, which is four points below his career rate. Tough to trust. PitchingBot likes the sinker (14.6%, 4.6 RV/100, 57 grade) and cutter (19.2%, 3.3 RV/100, 57 grade) the most, but everything else appears below average, which actually coincides with the run values on his pitches for once. With just a 3.8 BB% so far, Buehler’s 96 Stuff+ grade turns into a 100 Pitching+ one. Great matchup, but can you trust him?
Opp wRC+: 82 (25.9 K%, 8.3 HR/FB)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.79
DFS Notes: They’re not at Coors and it’ll barely reach 60 degrees at Dodger Stadium with no wind to speak of, yet the Dodgers still top the board by a decent margin at 5.74 with the Rockies on the bottom (2.76). Buehler has not shown enough to be trusted even in the best matchups yet. He could pop a big one, but that’s not my expectation of the thing most likely to happen at this point. You’re pretty much never playing Colorado bats outside Coors either. Shohei (203 wRC+, .370 ISO v RHP since last year), Betts (166, .234) and Freeman (164, .222) are some of the top bats on the board, in that order, but Ohtani’s recent hammy issues led me to jam Seager over him, while he’s my choice over Betts as well and once I went in the direction I did, Freeman wasn’t affordable. Nobody else in this projected lineup exceeds a .190 ISO against RHP since last season, but LHBs are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Hudson since last season with RHBs above .325.
Angels @ Mariners
Exactly four earned runs in four of Jose Soriano’s nine starts, but a total of two in his other five (though three unearned in one). Control issues appear to have been solved with a 7.6 BB% and 16 K-BB% over his last five starts. He’s allowed just four barrels over this span, but also a 46.3% hard contact rate that’s in line with his 45.4% season still. Even with a 12.8 K-BB% on the season, a 3.68 ERA, 3.61 xFIP and 3.58 xERA match Soriano’s 3.61 ERA. It’s interesting that Soriano’s Stuff+ grade has dipped over this five start run (101), but his Pitching+ grade has improved (100), while his Bot ERA has only improved to 4.12.
Opp wRC+: 93 (29.3 K%) (incl. Thur)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.78
Bryan Woo posted his second straight quality start without a walk in Washington last time out (first was in the Bronx), but struck out just a single National (2.9 SwStr%). He also experienced a velocity drop. Averaging 94.1 mph, it was his second lowest velocity average for a start ever, which is pretty important for a guy who throws fastballs and sinkers 75.7% of the time. He had completely dominated the Yankees and Royals prior, striking out 12 of 40 with a 17.9 SwStr% and just five hits. The Nats also registered the first two barrels against Woo this year, who has also only walked a pair in his four starts. There’s a lot to like here (104 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+, 2.68 Bot ERA) if Woo is healthy.
Opp wRC+: 94 (81 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.70
DFS Notes: The most negative run environment in the league features a pair of interesting arms, if we could be sure both were healthy. Neither team reaches four implied runs with the Angels near the bottom (3.14). Woo is not a pitcher I want to attack, especially in this park, but he costs $9K and the velocity drop with a single strikeout last time out scares me off him, for tonight at least. It’s a shame after how dominant he was in the Bronx. Soriano is a different story. This is a great matchup for a pitcher who has been looking good of late. He’s not only my SP2 on DK, but I’m using him in my FD single entry for less than $8K. That obviously means I’m off of Seattle bats, but if not using him or Seager, Crawford (127 wRC+, .183 ISO v RHP) is a decent value.
Update 6 EST: Pillar in for Adell. Doesn't really help the LAA offense, but lower strikeout rate.
Yankees @ Giants
Marcus Stroman has allowed a single run over his last 19.1 innings with an 18.8 K-BB% over his last 13.1 IP. Generating more than half his contact on the ground (51.4%), let’s congratulate him for reaching a 10.1 K-BB% (92.6 Z-Contact% is behind only Civale today) and even dropping a single estimator below four (3.79 dERA), still more than a run above Stroman’s 2.76 ERA (.250 BABIP, 84.3 LOB%). There’s certainly some regression coming, even if a lot of his most recent work is legit, but pitch modeling still hates him. With a 4.82 Bot ERA, only the curveball/slurve (12.8%, 0.3 RV/100, 53 PB grade) reaches 50 and that’s paralleled by 95 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.59
Jordan Hicks has a league average 13.3 K-BB% and has allowed just three runs over his last 15 innings with a 16.7 K-BB%. He generates even more of his contact on the ground (53.4%) with all of his estimators also more than a run above a 2.33 ERA, but none reaching four. Pitch modeling actually likes him (112 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, 3.81 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 128 (20 K%, 16.5 HR/FB)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.14
Whether it’s estimators (half a run) or pitch modeling (full run of Bot ERA, 17 points by Stuff+), Hicks has been the superior pitcher. While the Yankees have the better offense and defense, the Giants likely have the better bullpen too. Yet, they’re a home dog here (+118).
DFS Notes: It’s below 60 in San Francisco, but isn’t it always. The Giants are at 3.48 implied runs with the Yankees reaching 4.02, but never Stroman. At least, never again. At best he generates ground balls. The guy has a .135 BABIP and perfect strand rate over his last three and hasn’t struck out more than six in a start since April and only twice this year. I’m not really into attacking a more talented ground baller in this environment either. Your best bet against him is walks and BABIP piling up. Still not challenging the Yankees with him either.
Update 7:05 EST: Pair of lineups just in under the wire. Cabrera & Grisham in for Stanton and LeMahieu. No movement on SFG ML.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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