How disastrous was Wednesday? The Mets had to score three in the third to push the F5 and make it 2-5-2 on games that have beaten the line by at least 4% last nine. The A's (+154) had a two run home run robbed in the 9th tied at three and were walked off in the bottom of the inning. As for daily fantasy, the pitcher punting strategy returned negative points, while the Cleveland/NYY stack (11 combined run total) returned just six runs combined (Yankees still in T8 as this is being posted). That's okay though, because we win everything on Thursday with two big dogs below.
I'll be out of the house for most of the afternoon on Thursday, but hopefully will finish at least daily fantasy notes before that. May not be able to do any minor updates after that though.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Athletics @ Rays
Kyle Muller is making his first start of the year, but has thrown as many as 73 pitches in relief and 48 in his last outing, facing 16 batters for the fourth time this year. There should be a good four inning expectation here (60-65 pitches). What he does with those innings? Muller has just a 17.3 K% and has allowed 9.3% Barrels/BBE, but also has a league average 10.5 SwStr% and has only walked 5%. Estimators ranging from a 3.86 SIERA to a 4.34 FIP outpace his ERA by a bit more than half a run on average with three of his 16 runs unearned. Pitch modeling believes his command (105 Pitching+) improves the stuff (87 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 102 (25.6 K%, 7.0 HR/FB)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 3.55
Tyler Alexander is not confirmed at this point. The Rays have chosen to use an opener in nearly half his appearances, including last time out when he came in to face 28 Royals, allowing eight runs with a pair of home runs and barrels. Alexander has allowed 18 barrels (10.7%), while striking out exactly three or four batters in nine of his 10 appearances. Like Muller, he doesn’t walk many (5.8%) with a low strikeout rate (18.1%), but with a 28.5 GB%, Alexander’s estimators are less impressive (4.38 SIERA – 5.48 FIP), even if all are still well below his 6.06 ERA. Pitch modeling is a different story. Alexander receives PitchingBot grades above 55 on his four-searm, sweeper and cutter (2.95 Bot ERA), three pitches the A’s are bottom half of the league against. Although, you could say that about all pitches except for sinkers and changeups.
Opp wRC+: 87 (18.6 K-BB%)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.53
Update 12:30 EST: Pitching changes here. Alexander gets an opener and Muller gets a season on the bench, unless Harris is just an opener?
Royals @ Twins
Brady Singer has only three starts where he’s allowed more than a single earned run and while the 83.8 LOB% merits some regression, his 17.6 K-BB% does justify estimators mostly in the mid-threes. He’s doing that despite a 90.1 Z-Contact% and 10 SwStr% because of his elite 20.1 CStr%., moving the sinker around either armside to RHBs or up against lefties. The only pitch he throws more is the slider (44%), which only receives a 47 PB grade. With all that contact in the zone, Singer has also allowed 8.9% Barrels/BBE with a 39.9% hard contact rate, which pushes the xERA up to 4.34. One thing Singer won’t want to do is throw his four-seamer (11.9%, -1.2 RV/100, 31 PB grade), as the Twins are the top fastball hitting team in the league (0.94 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 10
B30: 4.42
Chris Paddack has allowed more than two runs just three times over 10 starts, but also has only three quality starts because he’s competed six innings once, seven innings once and eight innings once. The strikeouts are a bit hit or miss (no pun intended), as 40% of them have come in just two of his starts against the White Sox and Mariners. This may not be a start where we’re likely to see him punch out very many, but Paddack hardly walks anyone either (4.1%), which helps him generate estimators all at least one-quarter of a run below his 4.39 ERA, despite 9.9% Barrels/BBE and a 41.4% hard contact rate. Here, PItchingBot loves the fastball (41.5%, 1.3 RV/100, 61 grade) and the Royals are bottom third of the league against the pitch (-0.35 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 97 (18.9 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.05
Update 12:30 EST: Singer out, Lynch in.
Cubs @ Brewers
Jameson Taillon has been shelled for 13 runs (eight earned) over his last 14.1 innings, striking out just nine of 70 batters with a 7.8 SwStr% that now matches his season rate (7.9%). He allows a low rate of walks (6.7%) and barrels (6.3%), though still doesn’t have a single estimator within a run of his 2.58 ERA and only his xERA (3.65) below four. His velocity is dropping as well, now 1.2 mph below last year. Taillon’s pitch metrics are still the same over this span with just an 89 Stuff+ grade, but 104 Pitching+ and 3.59 Bot ERA when including location.
Opp wRC+: 119 (119 Home)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.32
Colin Rea exists with numbers very similar to Taillon (15.5 K%, 7.6 SwStr%) with the only major difference in Barrels/BBE (9.4%). Even their hard hit rates are within two percentage points of each other though. Rea does have a 43 Z-O-Swing%, which may be leading to those more frequent barrels though. Pitch modeling does not like him as much either (84 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+, 4.39 Bot ERA) with only his curveball (6.1%) reaching a 50 PB grade.
Opp wRC+: 96 (91 Road, 54 L7 days)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.43
Giving Taillon credit for having weighted estimators about half a run better than Rea, due to a slightly better walk rate and contact profile, we’re still left with very large offensive and defensive edges for the home team with the bullpens a wash. Will take the full game line (-110) with a much better price than F5. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 12:45 EST: Roof open, which increases the run environment close to neutral on average, but still below 70 degrees. Sanchez in for Chourio, Crow-Armstrong in for Suzuki, which gets and extra LHB in against Rea, who does have a large split, but still a modest 1.75% gain on MIL.
Astros @ Mariners
When you find a pitcher with a 24.3 K%, 11.8 SwStr% and 6.2% Barrels/BBE, but 11.3 BB%, you’d expect pitch modeling to like the stuff, but not the command of it. For SpAghetti somehow, it’s quite the opposite. He has a mere 78 Stuff+ grade, but 98 Pitching+ and 3.42 Bot ERA. He exceeds a 20% whiff rate on five pitches, but it’s the slider with the highest whiff rate (43.2%) that gets the second worst PB grade (46). Arrighetti also has a good fastball (40.7%, 57 PB grade), despite it’s -1.6 RV/100. That’s important because the Mariners are a bottom quarter of the league offense against heaters (-0.37 wFA/C). Estimators (3.90 FIP – 4.55 xERA) are all more than two runs below Arrighetti’s 6.93 ERA (.394 BABIP). It’s crazy that three of his four home runs and four of his seven barrels came in one start in Yankee Stadium and he hasn’t walked more than three in a start with that double digit walk rate, but he also doesn’t have a single quality start.
Opp wRC+: 96 (29 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.73
Logan Gilbert has failed to post a quality start in just two of his 11 tries this season and has three straight, despite striking out just five of his last 48 batters. I’m willing to give him a break since one as in the Bronx and the second against a low strikeout Washington offense. He’s still boasting a 17.4 K-BB% on the year with a 3.59 SIERA his only estimator more than half a run above a 3.06 ERA. It’s also weird that Gilbert was pulled at 81 and 78 pitches in those starts in New York and Washington just because he reached six innings. Like I said, they were quality starts. Gilbert’s 121 Stuff+ is third best in the league, but despite a 7.0 BB%, that drops down to a 101 Pitching+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 114 (18.2 K%, 92 Road)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.69
Tigers @ Red Sox
Five straight quality starts for Jack Flaherty, who is up to a 29.6 K-BB% and has allowed just seven barrels (4.7%). All estimators below three. His 98 Stuff+ grade is more than a bit surprising, only rising to 104 Pitching+ with a 3.57 Bot ERA. Throw the slider (29%, 1.1 RV/100, 57 PB grade) against the Red Sox (-0.57 wSL/C is bottom quarter of the league).
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -3
B30: 4.13
Nick Pivetta strikeouts by start: 10 – 3 -1 – 8 – 8 – 3
The 26 came against the Mariners, Rays and Cardinals. The 7 came against the A’s, Braves and Brewers. No discernable pattern here. After a 19 SwStr% in his first start against the Mariners, he’s been between 8.6% and 12.2% in each of his other five. He seems to have completely abandoned his cutter (10.8%) after his third start in favor of more fastballs (49.4% season, 62.2% last three), but that encompasses a pair of his eight strikeouts affairs plus just three against the Brewers. By PB grades, the fastball (68) is superior to the slider (51), but the Tigers are one of the top fastball hitting teams in baseball (0.51 wFA/C). Stuff+ (138) and Pitching+ (110) absolutely love what Pivetta is doing. Aside from the strikeouts, he’s not walking anyone (4.2%), but has allowed too many barrels (12.3%), producing a 4.17 xERA that matches his 4.20 ERA. Additional non-FIP estimators run as low as a 3.09 SIERA. With Carpenter’s injury, the Tigers may only be running out three LHBs, which could help Pivetta here.
Opp wRC+: 100 (123 L7 days)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.22
DFS Notes: A four game slate, all outdoors with some cooler temperatures includes a pair of teams above four and a half implied runs, a full run above the rest of the field. In stuff I have no time or patience for today, there have been three pitching changes to an eight game board, though only one for tonight’s DFS slate.
We start at Fenway, generally the most hitter friendly environment on this slate, temperatures that dip below 60 with a light wind in from left field make it more manageable and with the sheer amount of strikeouts in the Boston lineup (six above 23% v RHP since last season), Jack Flaherty Is my unquestioned top starter and perhaps the top value on either site as well. He’s in both my FD and DK single entry lineups. With both teams at 3.75 implied runs, I’m not super high on bats here, especially with Flaherty cutting down on issues with LHBs this year (.295 wOBA), but Duran (126 wRC+, .212 ISO v RHP since LY) and Abreu (156, .232) are fine, though Devers (138, .257) might be a bit cost prohibitive. Pivetta is a highly volatile, high upside arm. The Tigers have a 119 wRC+ and 16.1 HR/FB over the last seven days. If considering LHBs, I’d consider the LHBs (Perez 108, .191 & Greene 129, .190) first. LHBs have a .323 wOBA and .319 xwOBA against Pivetta since last year.
Update 4:15 EST: Flaherty has beaten his K prop on DK (6.5 -145) seven of 10 starts. Only two in BOS LU < 22 K% v RHP since last year.
Diamondbacks @ Mets
After starting the season with a velocity decrease, Zac Gallen is back up to 93.4 mph in May, just 0.2 mph off last year’s average, though his K-BB was at 19% both before and since the start of May, the same for a nearly 11% swinging strike rate. His pitch modeling numbers haven’t budged much either, but that’s not necessarily good news, as Gallen has just a 96 Stuff+ grade and 98 Pitching+ one on the season. PitchingBot offers a 4.86 ERA with only his curveball (26.4%, 55) graded above 45. The only other pitch he throws more than 11% is the fastball (49.8%) that received that 45 grade though. Aside from the 19.4 K-BB%, Gallen has had some issues with contact (48.7% of it hard). This registers a 3.92 xERA that is the estimator furthest from his 3.12 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 102 (84 Home & Alonso likely out)
DEF: 17
B30: 4.10
Christian One Spot Scott only excelled in his start against the Giants after he stopped trying to throw every pitch to each RHB in the exact same glove side edge spot. The sweeper usage was back up to 18.1% after abandoning it in his previous two starts (7.1%, 11%), but it was also Scott’s most fastball heavy start (68.1%), resulting in a season low 5.3 SwStr%. All four of his pitches are between a 20% and 27.7% whiff rate, so that may have been an aberration, dropping him to a 12.1 SwStr% (78.4 Z-Contact%) on the year. Despite just a 5.4 BB% and 6.2% Barrels/BBE that includes a 16.7 IFFB%, there are some command issues, that have likely led to a 45.2 Z-O-Swing% that’s worst on the day. Estimators all below a 3.97 ERA run as low as a 3.30 xERA. Pitch modeling sees Scott as an average pitcher (100 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+, 4.16 Bot ERA), but PB does like the fastball (55 grade).
Opp wRC+: 93 (49 L7 days)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.07
DFS Notes: Temps around 70 with a double digit wind in from left in the only really negative run environment on the slate anyway. The Mets and Diamondbacks are bottom three offenses on this board. I’m not interested in any bats here. Gallen is my second best pitcher on the board, but I like his upside slightly less, even with Alonso out, than Flaherty’s. The Diamondbacks don’t strike out a ton, but it’s been a very marginal lineup and a struggling one against RHP. Christian Scott is my SP2 for less than $7K. I’ve slightly cooled on him, but this is still a good value. Ottavino 38 pitches last two days, Diaz IL’d, Lopez DFA’d and this bullpen is a complete mess. Walker (38) and Diekman (16) two straight as well with Reid-Foley throwing 25 pitches yesterday too. This all speaks to Scott maybe getting a pretty long leash today.
Update 4:40 EST: The most hitter friendly Alfonso Marquez presides behind the plate. Neutralizes some the run environment negativity. No Alonso, as expected. D.J. Stewart (139 wRC+, .256 ISO v RHP since LY) bats second and very cheaply. Might be one of the better values on the board now.
Nationals @ Braves
While PitchingBot grades the four-seamer (35.5%, 3.1 RV/100, 62 grade) as Trevor Williams’s only above average pitch, it’s the new sweeper (19%, 1.1 RV/100, 48.1 Whiff%, 44 grade) that’s getting a lot of the credit for his turnaround/breakout this season. He hasn’t been 2.29 ERA good with just a pair of his eight barrels leaving the yard, but he has only allowed barrels on 5.6% of batted balls and doesn’t have a single estimator reaching four with a 14.4 K-BB% that’s the second best mark of his career for any season with at least 10 starts. Williams is coming off an eight strikeout performance against the Mariners, but we should note that with the fastball/sweeper combo, theyr’e only letting him go through the order twice. He’s only exceeded 20 batters once over his last seven starts. It’s surprising to find the Braves as a bottom third offense against four seamers (-0.28 wFA/C). This might have a chance to work.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -9
B30: 3.92
Reynaldo Lopez is working with an 82.7 LOB%, while just two of his nine barrels (6.6%) have left the yard. His 14.4 K-BB% matches Williams, though his estimators are slightly worse with a lower ground ball rate (38.5%) and slightly more barrels, running as high as a 4.03 dERA. Lopez also has slightly worse pitch modeling numbers with the curveball (10.9%, 3.3 RV/100, 53 PB grade) his only above average pitch. A slider he throws 29.8% of the time gets just a 44 PB grade and is one of two pitches the Nationals have been strong against (0.24 wSL/C is top third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -6
B30: 3.99
With defenses and bullpens nearly a wash and Atlanta only 10 points better against RHP, why is Washington such a large dog when the underlying metrics suggest they may even have the better starting pitcher?
DFS Notes: In the 70s with a light wind out to center. Ray Kerr sounds like a hitter, no? A 25.9 K-BB% in 13.1 innings. He has a 16.1 SwStr% and has worked up to 72 pitches, but has allowed five barrels (12.5%). I’m fine with using him here for less than $3K. In fact, he’d probably be my second choice for SP2, but only three in projected Washington LU above an 18.5 K% v LHP since last year. RHBs have a .374 wOBA and .347 xwOBA against Kerr too. Small sample, but small slate. A 3.54 team total for the Nats, but I like Lane Thomas (143 wRC+, .217 ISO v LHP since LY) and Nick Senzel (165, .275), both very reasonably priced. The Braves are the top team on the board (4.96) and though I’m playing the Nationals on the moneyline, I’m still stacking Braves because everything has a price. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .270 wOBA against Williams this year, but still between a .337 and .351 wOBA and xwOBA since last year. The fastball/sweeper combo doesn’t seem like it’s going to continue to dominate LHBs. Orlando Arcia is the only projected Brave below a 100 wRC+ v RHP since last year and Kelenic (who costs $3.1K or less) is the only other one below a .175 ISO. Michael Harris (111, .177) and Matt Olson (163, .310) are top values. Hunter Harvey more than 50 pitches over the last six days. Minter, Johnson and Bummer all threw more than 20 pitches on Wednesday.
Update 4:55 EST: Get to test the 4%+ line movement record against (2-5-2 L9). Obviously, the pitching change was responsible for the 4.45% gain, but with Washington's 81 wRC+ against LHP, I'm not even so sure this is a major downgrade.
Yankees @ Angels
If you look at the pitch modeling metrics, Carlos Rodon is fully back to dominance with a 119 Stuff+ grade, 3.49 Bot ERA and 62 grade fastball (55.3%, 1.9 RV/100) and this is supported by his 2.95 ERA. Only, we’re smarter than ERA and see just a 22.2 K% with a 43.3 Z-O-Swing% and 9.7% Barrels/BBE (44% hard hit rate). His estimators run from a 4.11 SIERA to a 5.00 dERA. The 87.2 LOB% is not only completely unsustainable, it’s borderline ridiculous minus the borderline part.
Opp wRC+: 118 (21 K%)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.59
Finally bought into what Patrick Sandoval was selling and he got smashed by the Guardians with all three of his barrels leaving the yard. He’s allowed five barrels over his last two starts, but only 10 on the year (6.1%) with a 23.1 K% that’s higher than Rodon’s. You know what else is better than Rodon’s? All of his estimators, ranging from a 3.89 xFIP to a 4.02 SIERA. Tight range, huh? Way below his 5.60 ERA because his strand rate is 25 points less than Rodon’s with a .348 BABIP. Rodon does have the superior pitch modeling numbers, but Sandoval’s 99 Pitching+ is only three points less. Just stay away from his fastball and sinker because they Yankees smash those and his grade in the low 40s, but he only throws them 31.9% of the time anyway. It’s the sldier (26.2%) that merits his best PitchingBot grade (58).
Opp wRC+: 103 (10.4 K-BB%, 8.6 HR/FB)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.75
I don’t believe the gap between the offenses against LHP is real, but the only significant edge the Yankees have is on defense. Why are they such large road favorites? ERA?
Update 12:20 EST: Did not realize I had forgotten to post this game last night. The line has only dropped slightly though.
DFS Notes: Temps below 70 with a light wind out to left center. The Yankees are just behind the Braves with a 4.84 team run total and the Angels at just 3.66. However, believing that Rodon is slightly overvalued and the LAA offense slightly undervalued against LHP, I’m interested in cheap bats here. RHBs have a .344 wOBA and .348 xwOBA against Rodon since last year and still a .324 wOBA with eight home runs this year. Luis Rengifo (178 wRC+, .222 ISO v LHP since last year) might be my favorite value on the board. Pillar, Ward, Adell and Neto all exceed a 125 wRC+ and .190 ISO against southpaws since last season too. A sneaky second stack to pair with the Braves and a high priced pitcher. RHBs have a .333 wOBA, .337 xwOBA against Sandoval since last year (LHBs below .290). Aaron Judge (193, .388) is the top batter on the board, but I’d have to move down to Kerr to afford him. Clay Holmes has thrown back to back days, but just 22 pitches overall.
Update 6:40 EST: Mescoso hitter friendly umpire. No Rizzo.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
Add comment
Comments