I briefly considered skipping Wednesday, as I knew it would be a race against the clock. Still six games to go (plus DFS notes), but felt it would be better to go lighter on some games than pass over the entire day altogether.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Pirates @ Tigers
Jared Jones & Tarik Skubal were covered yesterday. There’s no line on either game at the time of this writing.
Paul Skenes struck out just three of 23 Giants in his third starts, but still had a 14 SwStr%. A 27.4 K-BB%, just a pair of barrels and 10 hard hit batted balls through his first three. PitchingBot loves all three pitches (grades above 60) with a 112 Stuff+ grade (111 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -11
B30: 4.18
Five straight quality starts for Jack Flaherty, who is up to a 29.6 K-BB% and has allowed just seven barrels (4.7%). All estimators below three.
Opp wRC+: 83
DEF: -2
B30: 4.09
Update 12:40 EST: With potential weather issues, I guess the Tigers don't want to pitch Jack Flaherty in Game Two. It's a Keider Montero. I don't know what that is. Kerry Carpenter has hit the IL.
Cardinals @ Reds
This might be Andre Pallante, who has projections just a bit above four because he’s projected as a reliever. He's a ground ball machine (69.2% career), but hasn’t started a major league game since 2022. The Cardinals sent him down to stretch him and he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out at AAA.
Opp wRC+: 81 (27.4 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.85
A 4.58 xERA is the only estimator below Frankie Montas’s 4.61 ERA. During one of his early starts, Cincinnati announcers were beaming about how good it can be for a pitcher to just pitch to contact. Montas has a 15.4 K%, but 103 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ grades with a 3.86 Bot ERA. Pitch to contact with one of the worst defenses in the league behind you. It’ll work out great.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 7.5
B30: 3.51
12:50 EST: Temps below 70, but double digit wind out to left-center. Slight pitcher lean on the umpire. Friedl back for Reds. Maile in for Stephenson. Carpenter in for Arenado gives the Cards six LHBs v Montas (wOBA & xwOBA > .370 this year).
Diamondbacks @ Rangers
Ryne Nelson’s 17.2 K% and 43.5% hard contact rate ruins the good work from his 6.1% walk rate with estimators ranging from a 3.98 FIP to a 4.93 xERA, but all are well below his 6.03 ERA. Pitch modeling still loves him (102 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+, 3.37 Bot ERA) with PitchingBot grades spanning from 52 (curveball) to 58 (changeup). He throws four-seamers 51.3% of the time and the Rangers have struggled against fastballs (-0.4 wFA/C is bottom quarter of the league).
Opp wRC+: 103 (19.7 K%)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.07
Let’s try Dane Dunning again here, who has struck out 27.8% with a 12.4 SwStr% with virtually all of his pitches increasing in whiff rate, despite a mph decrease in velocity. However, he’s also walked 10.7% of batters and allowed 14.9% Barrels/BBE with a 50.5% hard contact rate. Dunnings 5.40 xERA and 4.92 FIP are his only estimators not only above a 4.43 ERA, but not at least three-quarters of a run less than it.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 6
B30: 4.66
Update 1 EST: Roof closed. Jankowski & Duran in for Semien and Carter. Barnhart in for Moreno gives ARI a fifth LHB against Dunning (.340 wOBA, .338 xwOBA since last year).
Phillies @ Giants
Cristopher Sanchez generates lots of ground balls (59.9%) with a league average 12.7 K-BB%. He also has issues with RHBs (.333 wOBA & xwOBA since last year) and could face nine. He could have an advantage with his sinker though (48.2%, 56 PB grade) because the Giants hate those (-0.93 wSI/C is fourth worst). But is that the guys in the lineup, the guys on the IL or both?
Opp wRC+: 110 (108 Home, 124 L7 days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.13
Kyle Harrison has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over his last 15 IP. He’s down to a 13.3 K-BB%, but without any particular contact management skills (10.3% Barrels/BBE). All estimators are more than one-fifth of a run above his 3.90 ERA, while a 92 Stuff+ grade (93 Pitching+) doesn’t expect much better.
Opp wRC+: 120 (112 Road, 113 L7 days)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.27
Update 2:25 EST: Temps in the 60s. Both backup catchers in.
Dodgers @ Mets
James Paxton brought a streak of three quality starts where he struck out just nine of 71 batters, but also walked just a pair into Cincinnati last time out. He both walked and struck out four on his way to a season high five runs allowed. Problems not fixed. We’re one-third of the way through the season, nine starts in and Paxton still has as many walks as strikeouts (0.0 K-BB%). His 74 Stuff+ grade coincides with PitchingBot grades that do not exceed 45. His best estimator is a 5.46 xFIP nearly two runs above a 3.49 ERA (.243 BABIP, 84.7 LOB%).
Opp wRC+: 94 (20.2 K%, 128 L7 days)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.63
David Peterson has a career 4.51 ERA and 4.23 FIP with a competent 14.7 K-BB%. I still had to look two, three times to make sure I was staring at projections for the correct pitcher because only ZiPS is above four. He does have a 20.9 K-BB% in a pair of AAA rehab starts, while striking out 24 of 50 with a single walk below that.
Opp wRC+: 124 (18.8 K%, 72 L7 days)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.05
I don’t want to touch a Mets bullpen that can blow any lead right now, but they’ve been ahead late in most games. The Dodgers still have the offensive edge, but Peterson is probably at least a full run better than Paxton at this point and that’s going by his career rates and still being conservative, rather than projections. Mets F5 +105 (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
Update 2:40 EST: In the 70s with a light wind out to center. Nimmo sits for Taylor, giving the Mets 8 RHBs against Paxton. A 4.71% gain on NYM F5. They're now -115. 2-5-1 last 8 line gains of more than 4%. Be afraid.
Marlins @ Padres
Written here before his last start in Arizona… In his first two starts of the season against the Mets and Phillies, Braxton Garrett has allowed 11 runs over 9.2 innings, but with just a single barrel, 55.6 GB% and 21.3 K-BB%. He hasn’t generated a lot of swing and miss (9.4 SwStr%, 92.0 Z-Contact%) and pitch modeling is not a fan of this year’s work (90 Stuff+, 91 Pitching+), but with a career 17.1 K-BB%, it’s likely he’s still working off some rust and it’s not as if the defense helps him any.
Well, rusty no more! Garrett threw a four hit shutout, striking out six of 31 Diamondbacks without a walk. Yes, that’s shutout as in nine innings. He’s up to a 20.6 K-BB% with a 63.5 GB% and just an 86 Stuff+ grade, but a 55 grade sinker (PB), a pitch the Padres have had trouble with (-1.31 wSI/C is worst in baseball).
Opp wRC+: 90 (18.5 K%)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.87
Too much to ask for Yu Darvish to dominate a third consecutive great offense. Twenty-four straight shutout innings out the window as the Yankees homered four times on five barrels. Darvish had only allowed five barrels coming into the game. His 3.04 ERA is still below a tight estimator range (3.40 xERA – 3.74 dERA). The Marlins are vulnerable to sinkers (-0.84 wSI/C) and sliders (-0.99 wSL/C), a pair of Darvish’s best pitches (56 and 61 PB grades respectively.
Opp wRC+: 88 (72 Road)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.30
Red Sox @ Orioles
Kutter Crawford has been roughed up in two of his last three outings (11 ER – 16 IP), though it seems to be BABAIP related (.360) with underlying numbers remaining strong. The regression that should be taking places is the 4.9 HR/FB with just four of 13 barrels going for home runs, which explains why all of Crawford’s non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 2.89 ERA with a 15.7 K-BB%, but just 31.5% hard contact rate.
Opp wRC+: 102 (20.4 K%, 117 Home)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.26
One start after Corbin Burnes struck out more than six batters for just the second time this season and also 11 for the second time (the first being on Opening Day), he struck out….six of 27 White Sox, who tapped him for his third three earned run outing of the season (he hasn’t allowed more). With an 18.8 K-BB% and 34.8% hard contact rate, Burnes still has great numbers with a 3.30 SIERA his worst estimator, but he’s also now up to a stunning 89.9 Z-Contact%, though his 28.9 Z-O-Swing% is best on the day. The Red Sox are bottom third of the league against cutters (-0.6 wFC/C), which should bode well for Burnes here (60 grade cutter). Both of these pitchers have slight reverse splits. Let's see if either manager loads up on RHBs.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 9
B30: 4.33
Update 3:50 EST: Temps in the 70s with a light wind out to right. Rutschman and Westburg out. Adds another RHB against Crawford's reverse split.
Athletics @ Rays
Joey Estes has struck out 11 of 44 Mariners and Rockies without a walk. He walked and struck out four Astros. Those are his three starts. His 106 Pitching+ and 3.71 Bot ERA are of some intrigue.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -10
B30: 3.47
Ryan Pepiot walked four of 18 Red Sox with just three strikeouts in his return from the IL. His 6.1 SwStr% was also his lowest of the year. None the less, his 3.98 ERA remains above all of his estimators, most notably a 3.16 xERA. He’s struck out 27.7% with a 79.3 Z-Contact%, but has yet to live up to his 117 Stuff+ grade with just a 104 Pitching+ one.
Opp wRC+: 102 (Incl. Tue.)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.53
Update 4:30 EST: Soderstrom returns for A's. TB going with just 3 LHBs. Estes has a normal split so far. Estes has estimators about half a run worse than Pepiot, but, as mentioned above, has done some interesting things. OAK now has a 10 pt wRC+ edge v RHP and the better pen. Uncomfortable play at +154.
Nationals @ Braves
Mackenzie Gore was most recently seen dominating the Mariners in Washington. He actually gave up a leadoff home run, but then just three more hits, as he struck out eight of the next 25 batters he faced. Everything’s cooking now with exactly a 20 K-BB% and estimators running as high as a 3.63 xERA. In fact, that’s Gore’s only estimator more than one-third of a run above his 3.04 ERA. Pitch modeling is absolutely on board with his newfound stardom with a 117 Stuff+ (107 Pitching+) and 2.87 Bot ERA. Gore’s best pitch is a 69 grade fastball (54.8%, 0.4 RV/100) and who would have thought that the Braves were a bottom half offense against heaters (-0.27 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 115 (113 Home)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.94
Spencer Schwellenbach has thrown just 13 innings above A ball (36.4 K-BB% in AA) and only Steamer is even projecting the 23 year-old with a 45 Future Value grade This, from the only thing I could find written about him on Fangraphs in February…
“Schwellenbach was a college two-way player (shortstop and closer) whose pro career was delayed by a TJ and sidetracked in 2023 by a shoulder issue. He sits in the mid-90s, has a plus slider, and is a healthy season and a more consistent changeup away from profiling as a mid-rotation type.”
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -3.5
B30: 4.06
DFS Notes: We have a pair of domes on a seven game slate with mostly cooler weather, but little significant impact from winds or rain. The Guardians stand a full run above the rest of the slate at 6.02 implied runs with the Yankees next best at 5.02. Three more teams reach four and a half runs with a half run gap to the rest of the board, all bunched between three and a half and four. I’m having a very difficult time building lineups without punting on pitching tonight.
Probably the warmest spot on the board in Atlanta with temps near 80 plus a near double digit wind out to left center. Schwellenbach’s promotion blows my mind. You hardly even see pitchers promoted straight from AA and just about never with so few innings at that level. I have no idea what to think about him, but the Nats have a 3.85 team run total that’s middle of the board under favorable conditions with only Abrams (106 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Gallo (104, .253) above a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year and neither reaching an 80 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Braves are at 4.56 runs with only Michael Harris (100, .131) below a 105 wRC+ and .185 ISO against southpaws since last season. I’m not rostering Gore in this case, but believe in him enough to go underweight on Braves in multi entry. If not, consider LHBs with Gore’s reverse split (LHBs .378 wOBA, .361 xwOBA since last year). I expect to see a lot of a rested Altanta bullpen tonight.
Royals @ Twins
Seth Lugo has been mostly dominating poor offenses, including a five game span where he struck out 33.8% of batters with just an 11 SwStr%. The latter would be great if he could sustain it, but he has just a 9.2% rate on the season and it still only projects a strikeout rate in the low to mid-20s. In fact, he’s only exceeded an 8.1 SwStr% in one other game, his first, against the Twins. His overall numbers are still fine (15.3 K-BB%). With just six of 19 barrels leaving the yard (and Kansas City helps), non-FIP estimators only range from 3.73 (xERA) to 3.99 (dERA). The Royals have a great defense, but not strong enough to help Lugo remain two full runs better than those estimators. That’s a .245 BABIP and 89.6 LOB%, both unsustainable. Pitch modeling believes Lugo to be even more average (99 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 4.20 Bot ERA). However, the curveball is Lugo’s best pitch (14.6%, 3.4 RV/100, 58 PB grade) and the Twins are, by far, the worst offense against curveball (-1.26 wCU/C), which might explain his initial success against them.
Opp wRC+: 97 (incl. Tuesday from here on)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.42
Bailey Ober has allowed four or more runs in three of his 10 starts (all on the road), but just a total of eight in his other seven combined. A 91.8 mph that generally plays well at the top of or above the strike zone can sometimes leak a bit too much into the zone and baseball happens (9.4% Barrels/BBE), but Ober has been on far more than he’s been off. A 20.2 K-BB% is proof of that, but with just a 67.5 LOB%, all estimators are well below his 4.33 ERA, with only a 4.11 dERA climbing above four. Ober has just a 90 Stuff+ grade, but 105 Pitching+. The Royals are responsible for three of Ober’s seven homers allowed, in his worst start of the season, first time out.
Opp wRC+: 97 (18.9 K%)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.05
DFS Notes: The game starts around 70 degrees before dipping with a light wind blowing in from right. Neither team reaches four implied runs. I wouldn’t normally consider paying this much for Lugo (and did not in the one lineup I built on DK), but I can see it on this slate, especially with Minnesota’s problems with curveballs and only a pair projected who are below a 24 K% v RHP since last year. I’m lukewarm on Ober in the $8K range against an offense that has already pummeled him and doesn’t strike out much. That said, conditions in a marginal park against a decent pitcher don’t have me high on any Kansas City bats either. The only ones you might want are fairly expensive. Duran has now pitched four of last five (54) and Jax (27) two straight. Stratton threw 30 pitches on Tuesday.
Update 4:45 EST: Adam Frazier hits cleanup. No Pasquatch. Only 3 LHBs against Ober's reverse split. Santana in for Buxton adds a sixth LHB and also lowers the MIN LU K rate.
Blue Jays @ White Sox
Two good (at home) and two bad (on the road) for Alek Manoah this season. The pair of road starts he was pummeled in were Washington and Detroit, where he’s allowed five of his seven barrels (11.3%), striking out 10 of 46 with six of his eight walks. With five of those barrels leaving the yard, Manaoh’s FIP is quite a bit above other estimators, which are all within one-third of a run of his 3.97 ERA, but only his 3.87 SIERA below four. It all falls apart in pitch modeling though. Manoah is assigned a mere 85 Stuff+ grade that only improves to 91 Pitching+ and a 4.81 Bot ERA with only his slider (30.3%, 53 PB grade) above a 41 grade.
Opp wRC+: 75 (77 Home, 70 L7 days)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 4.29
After a few start velocity spike where Chris Flexen allowed three runs over 16.1 innings with a 13.1 K-BB%, he’s allowed 14 over his last 13.1 with a 10.9 K-BB% that’s still better than his season rate of 9%. However, after allowing zero barrels with the increased velocity, Flexen has allowed five since. He’s not managing contact poorly otherwise (34.4% hard hit rate season), which all adjusts to estimators from a 4.58 xERA to a 4.98 dERA, well below his 5.69 ERA. Main issues are a 64.5 LOB% and that he can’t miss bats (8.1 SwStr%, 89.9 Z-Contact%). Pitch modeling suggests he’s lucky to be that good (54 Stuff+, 5.18 Bot ERA without a single one of his five pitches reaching a 50 grade).
Opp wRC+: 102 (19.6 K%, 146 L7 days)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.21
DFS Notes: Temps below 60, but a 10 mph wind out to right. I’m not paying $8K, much less $9K for Manoah here, even against the White Sox (3.65 team total). They’re not good. They’re awful, but they really don’t strike out enough for me to trust Manoah at that price. The Blue Jays (4.85) are near the top of the board. With RHBs at a .393 wOBA and .383 xwOBA against Flexen since last season, I do like Schneider (139 wRC+, .206 ISO v RHP since last year) and Jansen (130, .244) here, along with a suddenly hot Vlad Jr. (123, .181).
Update 4:05 EST: No Jansen. Varsho bats second. No great value with his 89 wRC+ v RHP since last year. Benintendi and Pham out for Fletcher and Maldonado makes Manoah a more marginal option, though still not nearly my favorite in his price range.
Cubs @ Brewers
Quality starts with seventh inning outs and a total of three runs in four of Shota Imanaga’s last five, supported by a 23.5 K-BB% and sub-40% hard contact rate that’s not 0.83 ERA good, but worst estimator a 3.16 dERA good. The 93.8 LOB% will regress significantly and he can’t sustain the 4.8 HR/FB, especially when the extreme fly ball pitcher starts pitching more games at Wrigley with the wind blowing out. The stuff is just marginal (96 Stuff+), but with great command (106 Pitching+). The splitter (31.8%, 1.1 RV/100) only gets a 48 PB grade, but the 92 mph fastball at the top of the zone (58.2%, 3 RV/100) receives a 67.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 12
B30: 3.32
Bryse Wilson worked well behind an opener in Boston last time out, striking out seven of 23, allowing just a pair of runs. He’s produced a near league average 11.7 K-BB%, but with a 46.3% hard hit rate. There’s at least one and one-third run separating Wilson’s ERA (2.86) from all estimators. Pitch modeling doesn’t see anything special here (92 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+, 4.29 Bot ERA). Wilson also has a substantial platoon split with LHBs about 100 points better than RHBs (both wOBA & xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.43
DFS Notes: There are some strikeouts in a Milwaukee lineup that is better against RHP. Imanaga is the top pitcher on the board and perhaps even the best FD value, but he’s also the most expensive on either site and difficult to afford today. If you can make it work, by all means, do it. The Brewers are tied for the bottom spot (3.48), while the Cubs close the gap from four and a half runs at exactly four. That said, I’m considering punting my second pitcher with Wilson ($6K DK). Only three of the projected nine for the Cubs are below a 23.9 K% v RHP since last year. If you want to go contrarian, remember that both MIL catchers pummel LHP above a 160 wRC+ and .250 ISO since last year and with LHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Wilson since last year, certainly consider that all four for the Cubs exceed a 115 wRC+ against RHP since last year with only Tauchman (.135) below a .175 ISO. Leiter (39) has thrown in three of the last four and Peguero (37) two of the last three.
Update 4:55 EST: Roof closed. MIL will go with 3 LHBs against Imanaga, who has a small reverse split so far, but has really been great against everybody. Ortiz leads off, but just a 63 wRC+ v LHP since last year.
Guardians @ Rockies
A 23.4 K-BB% over his last two starts, Logan Allen did allow two home runs on three barrels his last time out in Los Angeles (AL). Allen had previously only struck out as many as five twice prior to this. While this recent success has pushed his K-BB to a league average 13%, issues remain in the contact profile (9.7% Barrels/BBE, 46% hard contact rate), producing a 4.94 FIP and 4.61 xERA that are closest to his 4.89 ERA with additional estimators not much above four. Allen’s 43.4 Z-O-Swing% is worst on the day and probably explains a good portion of the contact management issues. The 75 Stuff+ grade is not helping him fool anybody, nor is the 39 grade slider (PB), a pitch the Rockies are top third of the league against (0.25 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 84 (80 Home)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 2.94
Ty Blach hasn’t exceeded three strikeouts in any of his four starts, but has held the Phillies and Rangers to two runs or less, both times at Coors. The 10.5 K%, 5.4 SwStr%, 92.3 Z-Contact% and 41.2 GB% shouldn’t work at Coors (or anywhere), especially with the nine barrels he’s allowed (9.3%). His overall 4.55 ERA is in line with most estimators, a dERA and xERA above five being the exceptions. Blach has just a 69 Stuff+ grade, but a 3.85 Bot ERA on the back of a 70 grade cutter (14.7%, 1 RV/100), his only pitch reaching a grade of 50. RHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Blach since last year.
Opp wRC+: 124 (141 L7 days)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.92
DFS Notes: Temps in the 70s with a light wind out to left. In punting pitching, I’m currently paying up for Cleveland bats here. As mentioned above, RHBs have destroyed Blach. Fry (204 wRC+, .286 ISO v LHP since last year) is my favorite bat on the board with Freeman (90, .175) a great value out of the leadoff spot. I was also able to squeeze in Ramirez (119, .240). No other projected Guardian exceeds a 70 wRC+ or .100 ISO v LHP since last season. I’m actually using Logan Allen for $6.9K here. The Rockies are bad enough that everything plays here. In fact, in very small samples, Goodman (198, .538) and Bouchard (209, .379) are the only pair in the projected lineup above an 82 wRC+ against LHP since last year. At just $3.7K, I’m using the latter against my own pitcher. It is still a risk. The Rockies do have the third best team total on the board (4.98). In addition, the entire COL pen has been heavily used this week, while the Guardians are more rested.
Yankees @ Angels
The tremendous Luis Gil has struck out 22 of his last 46 batters. It’s the Mariners and White Sox, but that’s what you’re supposed to do with those teams. He’s also registered five straight quality starts with a TOTAL of two runs allowed, facing the Rays, Astros and Orioles in that span too. Gil’s walk rate is down to a manageable 8.8% during this run, his season rate still at 13.1%. The strikeout rate is up to 31.7%, which may not be sustainable with an 11.7 SwStr% and 16.1 CStr%, but he’s also been an elite contact manager (39.2 GB%, 21.2 IFFB%, 5.8% Barrels/BBE, 29.2% hard contact). That said, even his 2.78 xERA and 2.93 FIP are well above a 2.11 ERA. He won’t maintain a .203 BABIP. However, his 114 Stuff+ suggests he’s capable of dominance. That mark has dropped to 107 in May, but his Pitching+ has increased to 104 with a 3.16 Bot ERA this month.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.59
With a 17.1 K% and 10.1% Barrels/BBE, Tyler Anderson doesn’t generate a non-FIP estimator within two runs of his 2.52 ERA. The changeup plays (34.5%, 2.4 RV/100, 61 PB grade) and is the one pitch the Yankees are below average against (-0.21 wCH/C), but that doesn’t support a .209 BABIP and 84.5 LOB%. Batters from both sides exceed a .350 xwOBA (.320 wOBA) since last year.
Opp wRC+: 103 (10.4 K-BB%, 9.4 HR/FB)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.75
DFS Notes: If I’m going to punt pitching, why not go all the way and stack Yankees (5.02) along with Guardians. I’m completely prepared to be utterly frustrated by Anderson’s changeup, but he certainly has regression coming at some point and batters from either side are between a .321 and .356 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. I’ve paired Judge (192 wRC+, .392 ISO v LHP since 2023) with Volpe (122, .195), Torres (131, .204) and LeMahieu (116, .149), the latter pair below $4K on DK. At 3.48 implied runs, the Angels are tied at the bottom of the board. Gil is my second best pitcher on either site, my second best value behind Imanaga on FD and even a better DK value than Imanaga at a full $1K less. The same advice here too. If you can pay up, go for it. Matt Moore (36) has thrown three of last four. Luke Weaver (67) had thrown a lot of pitches over the last four days.
Update 5:50 EST: Guillorme and Calhoun reduce the LAA LU strikeout rate from Paris/Pillar. No NYY LU yet.
Astros @ Mariners
Justin Verlander has thrown quality starts four times in seven tries. However, he’s only done it twice with more than four strikeouts and those were in Detroit and Oakland. The good news is that this is another sweet spot for him, but there are some red flags here, starting with a 9.2 SwStr% and 43.1 Z-O-Swing%. He has allowed hard contact on just 30.2% of batted balls, but with just a 25.2 GB%, 10.3% of them have been barrels. As said, this is another park where that might play, but beware that a 3.78 ERA is his only estimator below four and a half. Verlander has been a FIP breaker in the past, but can he sustain that odd contact profile this year? Stuff+ thinks so (122 with a 104 Pitching+ grade), but PitchingBot (4.48 ERA) grades all four pitches between 44 (curveball 22.5%) and 51 (changeup 7.9%). RHBs now have a .314 wOBA and .311 xwOBA against Verlander since last season.
Opp wRC+: 96 (29 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.73
George Kirby’s velocity has been up and down (most recently down), while he’s struck out just 19 batters over his last five starts (15.7%, 8.7 SwStr%), in which he’s allowed 15 runs over 30 innings. That includes seven shutout innings at home against Kansas City. He’s also allowed 10 barrels (10.2%) over this span. He’s still not walking anyone (just two over this span), but something is off here, though Kirby still has a 109 Stuff+ grade in May, his Pitching+ has dropped to an even 100 (106 season). Estimators are above four for the month, but still half a run or more below his 4.33 ERA for the season (68 LOB%).
Opp wRC+: 114 (18.2 K%)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.69
DFS Notes: In a protected, extremely negative run environment with a lot of upside, I’m fine with paying for Verlander if that’s as much as you can afford, though I’m off Kirby here, whether I can afford him or not. This is a tough spot for a struggling pitcher, even if both teams are at just 3.5 implied runs. That said, I have difficulty recommending bats here, especially with Verlander's reverse split. Pressly threw 31 pitches last night and Abreu (50) in three of the last five, so Verlander could be pushed here. Munoz (29) pitched in two straight before last night and Stanek (36) three of the last four.
Update 5:35 EST: No Houston LU yet, but Mariners leaning into Verlander's reverse split with Garver in for Raleigh, though still 4 LHBs.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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