Some medical appointments could interfere with posting schedules this week, though hopefully that will only mean post-DFS notes updates, Thursday may be the most difficult, but not a concern on a four game slate (eight games in total). Got an early start with only two night games on Monday and finished all 15 on Tuesday. DFS notes to come.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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Dodgers @ Mets
A lot going on here with the double header pulling this game off the main DFS slate. And it looks like the Dodgers are flip flopping pitchers, so Tyler Glasnow starts in Game One with Stone (covered yesterday) in Game Two. After allowing four runs to Cincinnati two starts back, Glasnow followed up with a 57.1% hard contact rate and three more runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks. He’s struck out 14 of 42 with two walks and a 15.5 SwStr% though, so it appears to be just a bit of variance. Glasnow has occasionally had a tendency towards hard contact (up to 40.4% this year), but with such tremendous skills behind it (26.8 K-BB% this year) that it’s often not an issue. In fact, his 3.09 ERA is a half run above all estimators with just a 72.2 LOB%. With a 117 Stuff+ grade (107 Pitching+) and 65 grade fastball (3.29 Bot ERA), expect him to trend back towards stardom.
Opp wRC+: 104 (117 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.63
Tylor Megill returned from the IL for just his second start of the season one week ago with a strong effort against the Guardians, striking out seven of 21 batters with a pair of walks and just two earned runs allowed. The new cutter and splitter combined for five whiffs on 23 swings with only one in play, but the Guardians mostly just spit on a lot of splitters out of the zone too with the Dodgers likely to do the same. Megill also averaged 96 mph on the 43 four-seamers he threw though, so if he can hone his new secondaries, while retaining the velocity…well, I feel like we’ve been down this road before with him. PitchingBot gives the cutter a 39 grade and the splitter is near the minimum at 21, but I’m guessing a lot of that is location on the latter with a 113 Stuff+ grade over a pair of starts as well. I’m not set up for double headers and won’t be covering Jose Quintana in Game Two.
Opp wRC+: 117 (112 Road)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.05
Like yesterday, I have a small lean towards the Mets, where the line ended up moving towards them, but won’t act here either for similar reasons of uncertainty surrounding Megill right now. I’ve seen him stimulate interest and then fail to live up to the upside before.
DFS Notes: Temps in the 80s with a winds above 20 mph out to right field. I still have this game projected slightly below eight runs. Line movement towards the Mets again. Some minor irritations in the batting orders. The Dodgers have replaced both Miguels from yesterday's lineup against Megill with a pair of different RHBs (Pages & Taylor). The Mets have decided to catch Nido in Game One, despite Stone having the reverse split and Glasnow not having one. Though defense is more important and maybe Mendoza needs that pairing with Megill.
Red Sox @ Orioles
In the case of Brayan Bello, his ERA (4.04) meets estimators both below (contact neutral) and above (contact inclusive) right in the middle. The 13.7 K-BB% is league average, the 41.1% hard contact rate, a bit above. The Boston fans were probably looking for a bit more from Bello and they may find some of their expectations met in pitch modeling numbers with his 104 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ grades, along with a 3.53 Bot ERA, which includes a 55 grade sinker (40.6%). The Orioles are the second worst offense against sinkers (-1.36 wSI/C), which I feel is something also noted yesterday, before they went out and creamed Cooper Criswell’s. We also noted Criswell’s platoon issues and can say the same about Bello (LHBs .369 wOBA, .331 xwOBA since last year).
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.7 K%)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.26
While Grayson Rodriguez has the shiny 3.20 ERA and 26.6 K%, I feel like he’s underperformed expectations too and that starts with a 10.4 BB% and 42% hard hit rate, which thrusts all non-FIP estimators at least two-thirds of a run above actual results with a 3.86 SIERA the only one below four. However, as was the case with Bello above, pitch modeling absolves some of these issues with a 118 Stuff+ grade, though 104 Pitching+. His 3.01 Bot ERA includes a 60 grade slider (16.2%), a pitch the Red Sox are sixth worst against in baseball (-0.66 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 98 (78 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.33
I have a lean towards the Sox again, at the current price of +134, but after the O’s pummeled Criswell on Monday, I’m paying more attention to Bello’s platoon issues here. Also, though they have nearly the same estimators, I have more confidence in Gray-Rod to be better (and he has better pitch modeling numbers) than Bello.
Slight change of plans here, as DraftKings is offering +140 again, which I think may be worth a shot. Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps like this.
Pirates @ Tigers
Despite four straight quality starts (seven in all) and still not having allowed more than three runs all season, it’s fair to say that Jared Jones has cooled off somewhat. He’s allowed nine runs (eight earned) over his last 18 innings with 16 strikeouts (77 BF) with a mere 16.2 SwStr% (17.9% season). He has just a 14.3 K-BB% over this span (25.1% on the year). As long as he’s still missing bats at an elite rate, while his barrel and hard hit rates have actually decreased over these three starts, I’m not concerned. The velocity remains intact and Jones still dominates pitch modeling leaderboards with 132 Stuff+ and 113 Pitching+ grades. A 2.57 Bot ERA includes a 66 grade fastball (49.1%) and 57 grade slider (37.7%), the latter, a pitch the Tigers have struggled against (-0.48 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -6
B30: 4.18
Tarik Skubal allowed four runs for the third time this year (second time all were earned) in Kansas City last time out. A hot offense snapped a streak of six straight quality starts with no more than two earned runs. His strikeout rate is also down slightly over his last three starts (27.5%), though not as much as Jones, as he remains dominant with a 26.8 K-BB% and all estimators within one-third of a run of his 2.25 ERA. Skubal’s pitch modeling is strong, though not as dominant as Jones (105 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+), Skubal’s 3.06 Bot ERA includes a 56 grade heater (29.4%) and 66 grade changeup (27.3%), though that doesn’t coincide with any particular Pittsburgh weaknesses though.
Opp wRC+: 104 (25.3 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.09
I have this just about even, giving Skubal a small edge for having slightly better estimators, but slightly worse pitch modeling with the Pirates just a bit better against L/RHP. I probably wouldn’t go much lower, but think Jones is being slightly short-changed in this matchup of studs at +130.
Cardinals @ Reds
Love this matchup because I can save time. Kyle Gibson is down to a 9.3 K-BB% with his best estimator a 4.13 dERA. Cincinnati could exploit both his issues with LHBs (.348 wOBA, .352 xwOBA since last year) a 40 grade sinker (CIN 0.13 wSI/C).
Opp wRC+: 81 (27.6 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.85
Andrew Abbott has allowed just three runs over his last 19 innings, despite striking out just eight of 73 batters. He manages contact well (30.6% hard hit rate), but his 2.68 ERA/2.72 xERA are more than a run and a half below all other estimators with just a 92 Stuff+ grade. The Cardinals aren’t in as much of a position to exploit Abbott’s split issues (RHBs, .335 wOBA, .310 xwOBA since LY, LHBs < .230).
Opp wRC+: 76 (19.4 K%, 6.0 HR/FB, 120 L7 days)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.51
Athletics @ Rays
Mitch Spence is unconfirmed here. He has a 14.0 K-BB% with just 6.4% Barrels/BBE (37.2% hard hit rate), but 10.8 K-BB%, three barrels (12%) and 36% hard hit rate in two starts.
Opp wRC+: 94 (61 L7 days)
DEF: -10
B30: 3.47
Theoretically, Zach Littell doesn’t have great stuff (83 Stuff+), but he knows how to use it (100 Stuff+, 3.66 Bot ERA) with a 65 grade splitter (20.7%), a pitch the A’s have greatly struggled against (-1.48 wFS/C). Littell also has a 19.7 K-BB% and 34.1% hard contact rate.
Opp wRC+: 103 (26.4 K%. 114 L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.39
Nationals @ Braves
Jake Irvin doesn’t miss bats (19 K%, 8.8 SwStr%) and gets smashed on contact (10.2% Barrels/BBE, 45.5 Hard%), but doesn’t walk anybody (3,9%). With only six of his 18 barrels leaving the yard, he’s in an odd situation where his 4.74 xERA is more than half a run above his 3.79 ERA or any additional estimators. Pitch modeling really likes the control aspect of his game (102 Pitching+, 3.24 Bot ERA). Including location, PitchingBot grades all of Irvin’s offerings above 50.
Opp wRC+: 106 (114 Home, 114 L7 days)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.94
I don’t know. I have no idea what version of Max Fried we’re going to see. He’s allowed at least three runs five times, four times in five innings or less, but also allowed four hits or less in every other start. He even struck out a season high nine Cubs last time out without a walk, to drive his K-BB up to a still below average 11.9% on the season. Fried still dominates contact (64.6 GB%, 4.8% Barrels/BBE, 28.5 Hard%) and has all estimators within one-third of a run of his 3.38 ERA. There’s just a lot of volatility in how he’s gotten there. He actually has the same Stuff+ (98) and Pitching+ (100) grades as Irvin, but with a much higher 3.85 Bot ERA, though he throws too many pitches to get into the individualness of it all.
Opp wRC+: 78 (7.4 HR/FB)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.06
The numbers say the Nationals might be undervalued at +200 or better, but the difference in those two contact profiles is scary and I’m struggling with PitchingBot’s affinity for Irvin. The Nationals also had to use key relievers in a game they led 8-0 in the seventh on Monday.
DFS Notes: A 10 game Tuesday slate includes seven open air spots, including one with early rain potential, but not too much weather related craziness otherwise. None the less, we have four teams (a pair at Coors) around or above five implied runs with nobody else really above four and a half and 55% of the board below four. We’re also still waiting on confirmation for a pair of pitchers in Texas and San Francisco. There are some tough pitching choices to be made.
Around 80 degrees in Atlanta with a 10 mph wind out to left center, the Braves are the top offense outside Coors (5.31) with the Nationals third from the bottom (3.19). We saw a ceiling game from Max Fried last time out, but I don’t see enough strikeout upside in the Washington lineup for him to repeat that. RHBs are below a .260 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, LHBs above .320. I wonder when some team is just going to stack lefties against him. LHBs have pummeled Irvin above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA. Aside from straight stacks, I love Olson (162 wRC+, .311 ISO v RHP since LY) and Albies (108, .206) in this spot, along with Murphy (125, .228) for affordability behind the plate. Even without Acuna, Arcia is the only projected Atlanta bat below either a 100 wRC+ or .150 ISO against RHP since last season. Some heavy Washington pen usage includes Finnegan (34) two of the last three, Harvey (35) and Floro (42) three of the last four.
Update 4:50 EST: Harris leads off, Albies dropped to fifth.
Royals @ Twins
Cole Ragans is coming off of striking out a season high 12 of 23 Tigers, driving his K-BB up to 21.6% with a 14.3 SwStr% and 77.5 Z-Contact% that is third best on the day. He’s also allowed just 6.4% Barrels/BBE, generating a 3.30 xERA, matching a 3.34 ERA with all additional estimators even lower, along with a 110 Stuff+ grade and not a single pitch graded below 50 by PitchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 112 (117 L7 days)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.58
Simeon Woods-Richardson has a single quality start over his last five outings. He’s struck out just 15 of 99 batters over that span with eight of those coming in that quality, one hit start against the Mariners. A 7.2 SwStr%, 90.8 Z-Contact% and 45 Z-O-Swing% are not positive indicators, though because he rarely walks anyone (4.9%), SWR has estimators that only run as high as a 4.52 dERA. PitchingBot loves the changeup (23.6%, 72 grade), which is his worst pitch by run value (-2.2 RV/100). The control explains a 103 Pitching+ grade alongside an 86 Stuff+ one.
Opp wRC+: 99 (18.5 K%, 152 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.99
DFS Notes: Only around 60 degrees here, but with a near double digit wind blowing out to right. Neither team reaches four implied runs with the Royals (3.93) the higher of the two (Twins 3.57). Ragans is one of four arms I have right at the top of the board, but not one I chose to pay up for. It’s fine if you choose differently. There are some tough pitching choices today. I have no interest in SWR or Kansas City bats, aside from Bobby Witt (124 wRC+, .224 ISO v RHP since last year) and even he may be a bit too expensive here. Duran (54) has thrown in four of the last six games.
Blue Jays @ White Sox
Striking out a season high 10 of 21 Tigers last time out, Kevin Gausman is up to an 18.9 K-BB%. (24.6% last five starts) Generally, you just learn to live with the hard contact, but this year the 9.8% Barrels/BBE have produced a 4.89 xERA that’s the only estimator not more than a run below his 4.47 ERA. Just five of his 14 barrels have left the park, but he also has a .367 BABIP that’s only 42 points off his last six seasons. Gausman spoke about it being a mistake not going on the IL and pitching through injury, which probably explains the lack of strikeouts and 97 Stuff+ grade, but he’s now up to a 107 Pitching+ and 62 PB grades on his fastball and slider. He’s also facing the worst fastball hitting team in the league (-1.19 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 74 (7.7 HR/FB)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 4.30
Mike Clevinger’s 76.1 Z-Contact% is still second best on the board. Oh, the rest of it sucks (7.8 K-BB%, 14.8% Barrels/BBE, 86 Stuff+), but that just fascinates me.
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.5 K%, 135 L7 days)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.12
DFS Notes: Rain chances early here. Temps around 60 with a near double digit wind out to right when/if that ends early enough to play. If we get the go ahead, Gausman would be my DK SP1 for $1.7K less than on FD. He’s one of those four top arms I spoke of below, but by far the cheapest one on DraftKings. The White Sox are the bottom of the board (2.99) with the Blue Jays (4.5) ending that gap after the four five run teams. Clevinger at $5K is only attractive as a pitcher punt because of that crazy Z-Contact rate. That said, batters from either side are between a .320 and .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. I really like Schneider (133 wRC+, .198 ISO v RHP since LY) and Jansen (132, .248) here.
Update 4:45 EST: Woodford in for Clevinger.
Cubs @ Brewers
Having faced 91 batters in a starting role and 71 as a reliever, Ben Brown’s 28 K% is tough to evaluate. It’s just a bit lower as a starter (26.4%), but 10 of his 15 walks have also come in starts. The contact profile is downright terrifying no matter which role you’re talking about (11.9% Barrels/BBE, 56.4% hard contact rate). While only two of 12 barrels have left the yard (lots of early starts at Wrigley plus other pitcher friendly parks), all of Browns non-FIP estimators exceed his 3.20 ERA, but only his xERA (4.77) reaches four. Brown also has a 110 Stuff+ grade, but including location only gets his fastball (61.8%, 51) past a 48 PB grade. What are looking at here and how much does it change in a starting role are two questions that are very difficult to answer here.
Opp wRC+: 119 (126 Home)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.44
Were the Marlins just what Freddy Peralta needed to get out of a five start rut where he allowed 18 earned runs over 26 innings with a 15.7 K-BB% (23% season) or was it just an outlier start in a nice spot. Peralta struck out seven of 25 with just a single walk, but my concern would be that his 60 F-Strike% was below four of the five bad starts and a 9.2 SwStr% was below all of them. Peralta only allowed a single barrel, but is now up to 10.3% on the year, despite a mere 34.6% hard contact rate. He still has a 110 Stuff+ grade, but command problems with the fastball generates just a 51 PB grade on that pitch (101 Pitching+ overall). If he can’t command the fastball that he’s still throwing 51.3% of the time, there may continue to be problems, though perhaps not against this ice cold offense.
Opp wRC+: 96 (60 L7 days)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.95
DFS Notes: Our first domed park is a negative run environment (94 Run Factor Statcast 3yr) with the roof closed, increasing to neutral (98) on average when it’s open, which is a possibility in Milwaukee. The struggling Cubs are tied for the fourth worst implied run line (3.33) with the Brewers in the middle of the board (4.17). Peralta is the cheapest of the top four arms on FD at exactly $10K and would be my choice there if the roof remains closed. I may have to revisit should it open, but he’d still be a strong option. He’s the second most expensive arm on DK ($10.5K), where I chose to pay down for Gausman instead. Only three in the projected Cubs lineup are below a 23.9 K% against RHP since last year They have a team 90 wRC+ on the road and are down to a 50 wRC+ over the last seven days after Monday. Brown is so volatile with high strikeout, walk and hard hit rates that I think you might be able to use him in multi entry GPPs and also have some stack exposure against him. Joey Ortiz has the top wRC+ (158) and ISO (.235) in this projected lineup against RHP since last season. RHBs have just a .252 wOBA, but .341 xwOBA against Brown (LHBs .302, .350). Yelich (142, .196) is a top OF choice. Leiter has thrown 43 pitches the last three days, Hudson 32 yesterday for the Brewers.
Update 5:05 EST: Roof closed.
Diamondbacks @ Rangers
Brandon Pfaadt pitched pretty well against a Dodger offense that sometimes struggles against good fastballs last time out on his way to a fifth straight quality start with a 20.8 K-BB% and just 2.2% Barrels/BBE over this span that brings him to 19% and 4.5% on the season. Estimators ranging from a 3.00 ERA to a 3.79 dERA sit below a 4.05 ERA with just a 61.4 LOB% on the season. Pfaadt has strong pitch model metrics, which include a 105 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+, along with a 66 PitchingBot grade on his slider and 65 on his fastball. The Rangers are another offense that’s bottom third of the league against fastballs (-0.34 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 103 (19.7 K%)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.07
Really just an educated guess on Dane Dunning here, who has struck out 27.8% with a 12.4 SwStr% with virtually all of his pitches increasing in whiff rate, despite a mph decrease in velocity. However, he’s also walked 10.7% of batters and allowed 14.9% Barrels/BBE with a 50.5% hard contact rate. Dunnings 5.40 xERA and 4.92 FIP are his only estimators not only above a 4.43 ERA, but not at least three-quarters of a run less than it.
Opp wRC+: 93 (76 L7 days)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.66
DFS Notes: The roof rarely opens, but it would be the top run environment outside Coors if it does. Near neutral, the Diamondbacks sit in the middle of the board (4.42) with the Rangers just two spots lower (4.08). Should it be Dunning, I love the top half of the Arizona order in Carroll (126 wRC+, .229 ISO v RHP since LY), Marte (114, .199), Pederson (126, .198) and Walker (118, .214). LHBs are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Dunning since last season, but RHBs get up to a .327 xwOBA too (.285 wOBA). Roof closed, Pfaadt is my SP2 for less than $8K still. Remember, the Rangers struggle against four-seamers too, as mentioned above. Pfaadt still has some blowup potential, but also plenty of upside and has been pitching well. That said, he does have a platoon split (LHBs .353 wOBA, .324 xwOBA career) and I still love Seager (174, .300) as the top SS on the board.
Update 6 EST: Closed roof. Rangers have sprung Eovaldi on us. He doesn't appear to have had a rehab start. Would be nice if they sprung a lineup on us too. Langford expected to return.
Guardians @ Rockies
Triston McKenzie allowed more than two runs for the first time in seven outings when the Mets smacked him around for an entire three last time out. There is not a single number in his profile that can make a reasonable person consider he deserves his 3.44 ERA with a 6.3 K-BB% and 11% Barrels/BBE. In fact, a 4.77 xERA is McKenzie’s only estimator below five. He does have a 101 Stuff+ grade, but just a 91 Pitching+, while PitchingBot doesn’t even reach a 40 grade on any of his three offerings. He has a 22 grade slider (21.8%) with the Rockies a top third of the league offense against those (0.23 wSL/C) because sliders are less effective at Coors. The one thing in McKenzie’s favor is that the Rockies lack the personnel to exploit his 100 point xwOBA platoon split since last year.
Opp wRC+: 81 (25.8 K%, 8.1 HR/FB)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 2.90
Ryan Feltner punched out six of 24 A’s last time out, the first time he’d struck out more than four in six starts and only third time this season. Still, he doesn’t walk many (6.7%) and has managed contact well enough to generate a 3.78 xERA that matches his FIP as his lowest estimator, though all are more than a run below his 5.07 ERA (.339 BABIP, 66.1 LOB%). Feltner also has a 101 Stuff+ grade, but also a 101 Pitching+, while PitchingBot gives all three pitches he throws at least 15% of the time a grade of 50 or slightly better.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.4 K%)
DEF: 4
B30: 5.11
There is a tremendous disparity in the quality of these two pitchers, despite the perceived one in the opposite direction due to the gap in actual ERA. Feltner has been nearly a full run better with half the rate of walks and barrels, yet the same strikeout rate. It’s more than enough to make up for the offensive disparity, especially at home and with slightly better defensive numbers, which is probably the biggest shock. Rockies +120 F5 (want no part of a bullpen battle) for a full unit.
DFS Notes: Temps around 70 with a near double digit wind out to center, the Guardians are the top team on the board (5.55) with the Rockies up there too (4.95). While not considering either pitcher, I’m leaning towards going underweight on Guardians, which is certainly hinted at above. Fry (116 wRC+, .155 ISO v RHP since last season) and Freeman (96, .108) might be my favorites from this lineup, despite being the only two RHBs and Feltner having a normal, standard split with LHBs better than RHBs. The reasons being a tough Catcher position where Fry is eligible and Freeman’s affordability in the leadoff spot. Certainly have some Cleveland exposure though. I haven’t included Rockies in many lineups this year, but really like a pair of LHBs (.324 wOBA, .397 xwOBA v McKenzie since 2023). Blackmon (95, .164) and McMahon (108, .213) are a pair of top bats on this board. Beeks (41) and Vodnik (38) have thrown two of the past three days in a heavily used bullpen (which is why I played F5). Clase (33) pitched two of the last three, but not yesterday.
Update 5:30 EST: COL F5 might be the biggest gain of the year. Now -112, 7.38% gain.
Yankees @ Angels
Without a run allowed in his last two starts (both at home) against the White Sox and Mariners, Nestor Cortes now has a 3.29 ERA that’s a bit below most estimators with an 18.2 K-BB%, but the contact profile is the oddity here. With 6.2% Barrels/BBE, but a 42.7% hard contact rate, Cortes still registers 2.85 xERA and it’s not like all that hard contact is coming on the ground with a 30.6 GB%. There’s also a massive difference in his home (23.8 K-BB%, .197 wOBA) and road (11.1 K-BB%, .379 wOBA) splits this year. That probably has more to do with home starts including the Tigers, A’s, Rays and Marlins too. Pitch modeling tells us that PitchingBot (3.38 ERA) likes him more than Stuff+ (98) and Pithcing+ (103) with all of his pitches grading between 54 and 58.
Opp wRC+: 120
DEF: 9
B30: 3.74
Griffin Canning has allowed just three runs over his last 16.2 innings, despite a 2.9 K-BB%, five barrels (10%) and a 48% hard contact rate. Don’t buy it. Even with this run, his 5.05 ERA matches estimators which don’t fall below five. Canning has just a 6.7 K-BB% on the season with an 87 Stuff+ grade and Bot ERA above five as well.
Opp wRC+: 128 (10.3 K-BB%, 16.8 HR/FB)
DEF: -8
B30: 4.12
DFS Notes: The most hitter and certainly power friendly of the four California parks today, temps are blow 70 with a light wind out to left center. The Yankees are third from the top (5.16) with the Angels in the middle (3.84). I have Cortes a notch below the top arms and too expensive for my taste here. The Angels (sans Trout) have continued to hit LHP very well, though that’s not to say Cortes is a pitcher I’m attacking here. On the other side, batters from either side are between a .318 and .329 wOBA and xwOBA against Canning. This is a spot where you could look to pay up for Judge (177 wRC+, .338 ISO v RHP since LY) and Soto (171, .277) and I love Volpe (90, .160, 140 wRC+ L30 days) as a value SS tonight.
Astros @ Mariners
Hunter Brown has thrown 48 of his 50 sinkers to RHBs over his last four starts. The pitch has been worth 4.5 RV/100 with his manager praising it for his turnaround, but consider it’s 36 PB grade and what he’s calling a turnaround is nine runs over 20.1 innings with an 11.5 K-BB%. I guess it’s better than his 1.3 K-BB% over his first four starts, but he also had a 23.1 K-BB% over a pair of starts in between with an 18.2% hard hit rate, where he allowed nine runs over 9.1 innings due to a 39.2 LOB%. Stick with the stuff you threw in those two games. I wonder if they realize that it’s a bit unlucky that he’s allowed nine home runs on just six barrels, six on just four barrels at home. So sure, throw the sinker against RHBs in his power friendly home park, but it might not return what he wants in Seattle. Or at least what we want from him. Brown actually gets PB grades of 53 and 55 on his four-seam and slider with a 104 Stuff+ grade overall, while the Mariners have a top third of the league mark against sinkers (0.28 wSI/C). They’re near the bottom of the league against four-seamers (-0.5 wFA/C). Maybe a live bet could be in order depending what he cones out throwing.
Opp wRC+: 97 (28.8 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.64
Uh, oh. Luis Castillo has allowed just a pair of earned runs in each of his last two starts (actually no more than that in eight straight, but has struck out just five of his last 49 with seven walks. Hopefully it’s as easy as looking at the opposition to figure out whats wrong, as those two starts were in the Bronx and Baltimore. Not that this is an easier spot, but at least it’s at home, where Castillo has only pitched twice over his last seven starts. Still sitting on an extremely healthy 18.9 K-BB%, the contact profile has been beaten up a bit (8.2% Barrels/BBE, 41.2% hard contact rate), but still returns just a 3.70 xERA. In fact, all estimators sit in a tight range from 3.51 (SIERA) to 3.74 (dERA) with Castillo’s 80.1 LOB% pushing his 3.30 ERA just a bit lower. Pitch modeling gives him just a 99 Stuff+ grade, but 104 Pitching+ with PitchingBot grades from 50 to 56 on all of his offerings.
Opp wRC+: 117 (17.8 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.80
DFS Notes: The most negative run environment roof open or closed, neither of these teams reach four implied runs with the Mariners (3.93) closer than the Astros (3.57). The strikeout upside and environment gives another volatile Brown some value on this slate. He costs just $6.5K on this slate and if there are roof openings in other spots, I may have to consider it tonight. Crawford (129 wRC+, .185 ISO v RHP since LY) and Raley (127, .222) are still solid values, while Raleigh (116, .226) isn’t bad either. LHBs are within five points of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Brown since last year, but he actually has a reverse split. Dylan Moore (114, .197) is the only RHB projected exceeding a 105 wRC+ both against RHP since last year and over the last 30 days. Wouldn’t hate some SEA stack hedging in multi entry if using Brown in some lineups though. Only due to the matchup, I have Castillo more in Cortes’s range (at almost the same price), a bit outside the top four. Like Cortes, I’m not attacking him either, but LHBs have a .321 wOBA, .326 xwOBA against him since last year. I don’t hate Alvarez (152, .255) or Tucker (159, .288). Munoz (29) two in a row.
Marlins @ Padres
Jesus Luzardo struck out just four of the 26 Brewers he faced last time out, but still threw eight shutout innings with a 16 SwStr%. In fact, in three starts back from the IL, he’s allowed just a pair of runs against the Phillies over 19.2 innings, striking out 19 of 70 (17.2 SwStr%) with just a single walk and two barrels (4%). It’s been exceptional against good offenses. With his velocity down below 95 mph in each of these starts and 94.1 in his last start (95.5 for the year, 96.7 last year), is he intentionally sacrificing something for better control/command? He’s hasn’t altered his fastball usage much (46% against the Brewers). It may make some sense because Luzardo has just a 93 Stuff+ in May vs 100 in March/April, but 103 Pitching+ vs 97 prior. Luzardo seems to have found something here.
Opp wRC+: 88 (18.8 K%, 8.8 HR/FB)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.87
Matt Waldron’s last three starts have been against the Dodgers and then in Atlanta and Cincinnati. He entered this stretch with a 5.82 ERA, 11 barrels (9.6%) and 33.3% hard contact rate with a 10.3 K-BB%. He completed this stretch with a 2.81 ERA, just one barrel and 25.7% hard contact rate with a 26.2 K-BB%. WTF? He did mix up his pitches a bit more in Cincinnati, but hasn’t done anything significantly different overall. Maybe the knuckler is just knuckling better? There are no pitch grades for it. PitchingBot really loves the sweeper though (18.4%, 66 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 89 (73 Road)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.30
DFS Notes: Temps in the low 60s with no wind issues. This is already one of the most negative run environments in baseball. However, the lack of strikeouts in the San Diego order and their ability to work pitchers makes Luzardo a reasonable, but more marginal roster for exactly $8K on DK. I may move here should one of those two roofs open or the rain be too risky in Chicago though. The Padres are at just 3.67 implied runs with the Marlins one-third of a run lower. Waldron is another interesting SP2 choice for just $6.2K. Miami bats have been improving, but there are five projected above a 23.5 K% v RHP since last year. Waldron has a 50 point wOBA, 100 points xwOBA standard split since last year and the knuckleball is volatile, but he has other pitches. I don’t have much interest in Miami bats in this spot. I have no interest in Padres. A strong plate discipline, but low power offense, this is the type of offense you want to stack and I’m certainly not doing that against Luzardo, the way he is pitching…especially in this environment. Bender (33) two of last three. Suarez (36) two in a row.
Phillies @ Giants
Zach Wheeler has struck out just 13 of his last 76 batters with eight walks, though with a 12 SwStr% and a pair of seven inning, two run outings in there. It’s odd that his velocity has ticked up over this span, but could this be the inverse of what Luzardo is doing? Is Wheeler suddenly trying too hard to regain some lost velocity? It wouldn’t make sense, as he was dominating without it anyway. He still has a 20.2 K-BB%, allowing 6.4% Barrels/BBE with just a 34.3% hard contact rate. Estimators are all above his 2.53 ERA, but run only as high as a 3.44 dERA. PitchingBot (2.63 ERA) continues to love him with grades above 60 on his fastball, sinker and sweeper, alongside a 103 Stuff+ grade and 109 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 104 (123 L7 days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.13
No pitcher confirmed. Rumors it might be Spencer Howard, who has projections around four because they expect him to be a reliever. Do you know he’s still only thrown 115 career innings (10 K-BB%). He’s starting at AAA with a 32.2 K% over 39.2 innings.
Opp wRC+: 112 (113 Road, 116 L7 days)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.27
DFS Notes: Temps below 60 in a park designed to neutralize the near 15 mph wind out to center tonight. The Giants lost another body yesterday (Wade) and are near the bottom of the board (3.04) with the Phillies near the middle of the board (4.46). Sure, stack your Phillies against Howard, who only threw three major league innings last year and none yet this season. Wheeler is the last of the big four tonight, but the most expensive pitcher on either site. I have less than no interest in Giants’ bats tonight. Doval (70) has thrown in four of the last six. This San Francisco pen has been heavily used and may have trouble covering nine innings tonight. It just makes it tough when you don’t know which pitchers the Phillies will be facing in a tough environment.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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