In Monday's special Memorial Day edition of "What the Hell is Wrong With This Guy?", we cover 22 pitchers, several of them broken or just not themselves this season, without DFS notes, due to the day game heavy schedule.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Red Sox @ Orioles
The only questionable aspect of Cooper Criswell’s performance is an 8.1 SwStr% that’s not befitting of a 23.9 K%. He has a 20.4 CStr% that’s best on the board today and that SwStr rate is up to 11.2% over his last three starts. Pitch modeling is also a big fan of his work with PitchingBot issuing a 53 grade or better for each of the three pitches he throws more than 15% of the time, including a 62 grade sinker (28.7%, 2 RV/100), which is a pitch the Orioles have greatly struggled against (-1.36 wSI/C Is second worst in MLB), along with a 107 Stuff+ grade (102 Pitching+). Criswell doesn’t often go deep in games, but did throw 100 pitches two starts back and face a season high 22 batters last time out, while an elite CStr%, strong individual pitch metrics and an increasing SwStr% all suggest he may be able to sustain his current strikeout rate and 18.3 K-BB% and thus, all non-FIP estimators below three and a half. A large platoon issue for Criswell last season (LHBs .442 wOBA) has been overcome this year (LHBs .271 wOBA), through increased usage of his cutter against them (11.9 Whiff% 2023, 35.7 Whiff% 2024). Yet, this is the pitch PB doesn’t like (15%, 1.5 RV/100, 42 grade), which Baltimore has been best in the league against (2.38 wFC/C). I guess we’ll which prevails.
Opp wRC+: 99 (20.5 K%)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.38
It’s pretty easy to figure out how Cole Irvin is keeping it together and that’s with just four of his 11 barrels leaving the park, having only pitched in one power friendly park all season (Cincinnati). Teams don’t generally send pitchers to the bullpen if they expect them to continue pitching well, but that’s exactly what the Orioles did to Irvin when Bradish and Means returned to the rotation. They knew his 3.15 ERA was unsustainable without a single non-FIP estimator below four and mere 16.4 K% (7.3 SwStr%). He does do one thing well and that’s not issuing free passes. He has just a 4.4 BB% on the season after walking just one of his last 91 batters, but pitch modeling is in agreement with estimators on this one. An 83 Stuff+ grade only climbs as high as a 96 Pitching+ one, even with the elite control. Statcast increases RHBs from a .314 wOBA to a .353 xwOBA against Irvin since last season.
Opp wRC+: 97 (28.9 K%, 7.9 HR/FB)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.28
Irvin will have his home park to save his ass this afternoon, but there’s still more than half a run in estimators separating these two pitchers as well as nearly a full run in estimators separating bullpen’s over the last month. I believe that overcomes the defensive edge for the O’s, even if the underlying metrics suggest their two point gap in wRC+ against RHP should be a bit more. I’ll take +136 here and not even wait for an F5 line. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for smaller, but earlier info dumps like this.)
Update 11:45 EST: In the 80s with double digit wind out to left-center. O'Neil and Santander are out. Dom Smith adds a second LHB against Irvin. DK added BOS +140 last night. Has since dropped back down slightly to +136.
Royals @ Twins
Alec Marsh continues to just throw everything right over the heart of the plate and escape with not only a league average 13.7 K-BB%, but very little hard contact (6.3% Barrels/BBE, 37.3 Hard%). Go ahead and look as his Baseball Savant heat maps. Pitch modeling tells us it’s all very average too (99 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, 4.32 Bot ERA) with every one of his pitches between a 44 (slider 18.7%) and 54 (sinker 13.7%) PB grade. Maybe it’s because he throws four different pitches between 10 and 20% of the time along with his four-seam (37.6%)? Non-FIP estimators (three home runs on eight barrels) all are very averagely just above four too. Average isn’t a 2.72 ERA though (.252 BABIP, 77.1 LOB%, 5.7 HR/FB).
Opp wRC+: 98 (115 L7 days)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.53
Joe Ryan snapped a streak of three straight games with a homer allowed (six barrels) last time out when he shut out the Nationals (one barrel) over seven innings on three hits. As always, the skills are beautiful (23.2 K-BB%) with elevated 93.8 mph fastballs a full mile and a half per hour faster than last year, not resulting in fewer barrels (9.2%, 8.5% last year), but a better ratio of home runs to barrels (84.2% last year, 46.6% this year), resulting in a 2.78 xERA that correlates more closes with his ERA (3.15), FIP (3.01) and other estimators that run only as high as a 3.17 xFIP. Despite a 94 Stuff+ grade, his ability to locate his pitches results in a 104 Pitching+ grade and 2.70 Bot ERA with three pitches graded above 60 and none below 57 (PB). His last game against Washington was the best single game velocity average of his career (94.5 mph) and while the Royals are red hot, they struggle against fastballs (-0.24 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 99 (18.5 K%, 165 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.10
Update 12 EST: Ugly weather, below 70. Frazier in for Velazquez against an occasionally power prone RHP with a reverse split.
Blue Jays @ White Sox
The White Sox have neither the quantity, nor quality of LHBs necessary to exploit Chris Bassitt’s expanding platoon issues (LHBs .362 wOBA, .349 xwOBA since last year). As such, he shut them out over seven innings last time out, but still needed a .238 BABIP to do it with just four strikeouts (27 batters faced). Without a barrel, he knocked his season rate down to 8% and his hard hit rate below 40% with just a 28.6% hard contact rate against Chicago. Bassitt is still looking at a 10 K-BB% that generates estimators all within one-third of a run of his 4.39 ERA. Having thrown at least eight pitches more than 40 times this year, I’m not even going to venture into pitch modeling beyond his overall 96 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ grades (4.06 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 77 (7.8 HR/FB)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 4.03
Nick Nastrini may be no better than anyone else the White Sox are throwing out there with a 5.95 dERA his only estimator below seven through three starts, but they’re better off at least trying to find this out, rather than continuing to give the ball to cooked veterans they’ll be receiving nothing for at the trade deadline. Since striking out five of 20 Royals in his first start, while walking just two, Nastrini has walked 11 of 43 Phillies and Blue Jays in road starts, striking out just three. He’s allowed five barrels (11.9%), but just 12 hard hit batted balls overall (28.6%) and with a 10.5 SwStr% that’s 3.5 points ahead of Bassitt’s. A 45+ Future Value arm (FG), Nastrini had an 18.7 K-BB% over 29.2 AAA innings before the callup. PitchingBot does not assign a grade above 40 to anything he’s thrown more than 10 times at the major league level and a 99 Stuff+ grade drops to 90 Pitching+ with all the walks. There may be something there, but Nastrini may need to cook a little more before he’s ready.
Opp wRC+: 98 (20 K%, 124 L7 days)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.14
Update 12:15 EST: Near 70 and near 15 mph wind out to center. LHB Vogelbach in for Turner gives the Blue Jays three from that side. Lots of Ks bottom of the CWS LU.
Guardians @ Rockies
Xzavion Curry takes Carlos Carrasco’s spot in the rotation. He’s only walked one of 37 batters, but has also only struck out five with three barrels and 18 hard hit batted balls (58.1%). He’s thrown 104.1 previous major league innings with a 7.2 K-BB% and 43.6% hard contact rate. RHBs have smashed him through most of those innings (.359 wOBA, .365 xwOBA since last year), which would be problematic against the Rockies if many of their RHBs were actually good.
Opp wRC+: 81 (18.6 K-BB%, 8.1 HR/FB)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.02
Austin Gomber slow balled the A’s into oblivion last time out and has now allowed just two earned over his last 26.2 innings. His K-BB has only increased to 13.1% over this span, giving him a 10.1% mark on the season without any major changes in a contact profile that’s issued 9.6% Barrels/BBE. Gomber’s best estimator is a 4.14 ERA that’s nearly a run and a half above his 2.76 ERA (.232 BABIP, 87.8 LOB%), while his 78 Stuff+ grade only climbs to a 97 Pitching+ mark with a 4.12 Bot ERA his best estimator. What worked against the A’s may not succeed against the Guardians.
Opp wRC+: 128 (15.3 HR/FB)
DEF: 6
B30: 5.19
Update 1:15 EST: Neutral weather, but hitter friendly umpire (Wegner). Molina in for Gomber. RHP, but CLE keeps Fry, goes w/ 7 LHBs. In 16.2 IP, Molina has a reverse split w/ RHBs > .400 wOBA, xwOBA, LHBs just below .350. Molina has throws three plus innings four times with as many as 57 pitches and could go four or so, but the question is whether they want him to with a 2.7 K-BB% and 48.3% hard contact rate. Irony, but my weighted estimators for both pitchers come out to exactly 4.81. My line moved slightly in Cleveland's favor with this swap, but the actual line didn't move much.
Dodgers @ Mets
Gavin Stone broke a string of four straight quality starts with exactly a run allowed in each when the Diamondbacks tapped him for four last time out. Stone actually improved his 7.1 K-BB% going into that outing to 8.2% afterward. Even with a strong contact profile (31.6% hard hit rate, 6.3% Barrels/BBE) all non-FIP estimators (four home runs on 10 barrels) are more than half a run above Stone’s 3.60 ERA. PitchingBot gives him a 4.52 ERA, while Stone also has just 95 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 105 (21 K%, 129 L7 days)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.62
Tylor Megill returned from the IL for just his second start of the season one week ago with a strong effort against the Guardians, striking out seven of 21 batters with a pair of walks and just two earned runs allowed. The new cutter and splitter combined for five whiffs on 23 swings with only one in play, but the Guardians mostly just spit on a lot of splitters out of the zone too with the Dodgers likely to do the same. Megill also averaged 96 mph on the 43 four-seamers he threw though, so if he can hone his new secondaries, while retaining the velocity…well, I feel like we’ve been down this road before with him. PitchingBot gives the cutter a 39 grade and the splitter is near the minimum at 21, but I’m guessing a lot of that is location on the latter with a 113 Stuff+ grade over a pair of starts as well.
Opp wRC+: 119 (115 Road)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.96
If Megill is still averaging 96 mph and can find more strikes with the splitter, the Mets may have decent value as +130 home dogs in this one. But, of course, if not, the Dodgers could just wait him out and crush the heater.
Update 1:25 EST: Chaotic weather, rain + winds near 20 mph whipping across the field. Pair of Miguels (Rojas & Vargas) in for Kike & Pages (all four RHBs). Vientos in for Baty. Stone slight reverse split. Line movement towards Mets, so I wasn't the only one thinking the above on Megill.
Update 1:35 EST: PPD
Cardinals @ Reds
Just six home runs for Lance Lynn this year (10 HR/FB), but 15 barrels (9.8% is the same as last year) and he’s now down to an 12.5 K-BB%. With just an 82 Stuff+ grade (92 Pitching+), he doesn’t’ have a single average pitch (46 four-seam via PB is his best grade) and LHBs have a .349+ wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year (RHBs .310+ too).
Opp wRC+: 80 (27.6 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.63
Nick Lodolo is making his second return from the IL this season and it’s been a mixed bag over his six starts with three of the first four dominant, but three of the last four sub-par. Overall, he has a 24.3 K-BB% (still 20.2% last four), though six of his seven barrels (8.3%) have come over his last four starts and he has a pair of games above 50% hard contact in his last three. Estimators are all below, but within half a run of Lodolo’s 3.34 ERA. The Cardinals have really struggled against curveballs (-0.44 wCU/C) and fastballs (-0.87 wFA/C), both bottom third of the league marks, the latter second worst among all teams. These are Lodolo’s most frequently thrown pitches (77.5% combined) with 56 and 58 PB grades respectively.
Opp wRC+: 76 (19.6 K%, 6.1 HR/FB)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.67
The pure numbers say Reds, but Lodolo is making his first start off the IL, the Sunday night game between the Cubs and Cardinals is in doubt, which could change Monday’s pitching matchup and I don’t think the Cardinals are as bad as their surface results against LHP.
Update 1:35 EST: Near 80 with near 15 mph wind out to left, slightly countered by pitcher leaning umpire (Barrett). Line movement towards Reds. Shoulda listened to the numbers?
Nationals @ Braves
Mitchell Parker has only a pair of quality starts, the most recent in his last start with three runs over six innings against the Twins, but still maintains a 15.7 K-BB% after his dominant shot out of the gate against the Astros and Dodgers. Parker is up to a 43.4% hard hit rate, which generates a 3.68 xERA that’s the worst of his estimators, all above his 3.32 ERA. He’s probably not this good and pitch modeling suggests such (89 Stuff+, 4.34 Bot ERA), but that’s not to say he shouldn’t have a spot in this rotation and he’s done well with it so far.
Opp wRC+: 110 (114 Home)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.71
Charlie Morton has been fine (14.8 K-BB%), maybe even better than last year (34.1% hard contact) with his 3.35 ERA below estimators ranging only from a 3.68 dERA to a 3.89 FIP. One small concern is a 91.2 Z-Contact% that’s his worst since Pittsburgh. Morton also has just a 90 Stuff+ grade (96 Pitching+) and 4.33 Bot ERA that question whether his decline has passed the average pitcher mark.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: -3.5
B30: 4.05
These pitchers have nearly the same better than average estimators (Mitchell slightly better), but below average pitch modeling numbers. The Atlanta offense is clearly superior to Washington, but how many guys are they missing now. They called Acuna crumbling to the ground in the middle of the field “knee soreness”. Washington has had the better bad defense and the bullpen isn’t far off. With the Braves struggling in Pittsburgh this weekend, the Nationals may be worth a shot (+170).
Update 1:50 EST: Hittin weather in the 80s with a double digit wind out to left. Thomas back, Meneses out. Big news for the Braves is Acuna out for the season, which forces Kelenic to play v LHP, but Riley & Murphy back. No movement (0.28% loss) on Nats.
Cubs @ Brewers
There are some problems here, the largest being that six of Justin Steele’s seven barrels have left the yard, which generates a 5.22 FIP that’s not only the closest estimator to his 5.68 ERA, but the only one above four, despite a 46.2% hard hit rate and 21.3 K% (8.2 SwStr%). Cause for optimism comes from pitch modeling with Steele’s 2.12 Bot ERA and 107 Pitching+, despite a 99 Stuff+ grade. The four-seam (60.5%, -1.2 RV/100, 68 PB grade) and slider (28.5%, -1.7 RV/100, 62 PB grade) still appear to have elite potential, despite disastrous results thus far.
Opp wRC+: 97 (125 Home)
DEF: -14
B30: 3.42
Robert Gasser has struck out just a pair of his last 51 batter and six of 71 overall. However, he hasn’t walked anyone, has a league average 10.4 SwStr%, has kept exactly half his contact on the ground and has only allowed 12 batted balls to reach a 95 mph EV (19.7%). This registers a 2.85 xERA that’s fairly close to his 2.65 ERA with contact neutral estimators like his SEIRA exactly two runs higher (4.64). Pitch modeling is not in agreement here either where Stuff+ (99) and Pitching+ (98) see something average, but PitchingBot (65 grade sweeper, 55 grade sinker, 3.46 Bot ERA) suggests the potential for something better. Gasser has a 45 Future Value grade, but a K-BB exceeding 20% over 147.1 AAA innings since 2023.
Opp wRC+: 97 (46 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.01
Update 2:05 EST: Roof closed. MIL adds a pair of LHBs to the very bottom of the LU as if, we acknowledge Steele's small reverse split, but we're not sure. Have a lean towards MIL F5, but don't fully trust recent numbers on either pitcher enough yet.
Phillies @ Giants
The Phillies are still into letting this Taijuan Walker thing happen, huh? I guess when you have the best record in baseball, you can let it fly for a few weeks, but Walker has to be testing them. Five starts in and a 4.81 SIERA is his only estimator below 5.06 ERA. And if a single digit K-BB%, 7.3 SwStr% and 93.7 Z-Contact% don’t tell you enough, consider the 14 barrrels he’s already allowed (remember, just five starts) and 45.1% hard contact rate. That’s a 6.42 ERA folks. The splitter (17.3%, -2.2 RV/100, 43 PB grade) is his only pitch breaking a 40 PitchingBot grade with Stuff+ and Pithcing+ grades within three points of 90, while batters from either side of the plate now have a .320+ wOBA and xwOBA against Walker since last year.
Opp wRC+: 105 (124, 18 K% L7 days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.12
Written before his return from the IL in Pittsburgh:
“Blake Snell struck out 17 of 28 batters (A & AAA) in a pair of rehab starts, walking just one without a single hit. Perhaps he’s ready to go. He posted a 12.1 K-BB% with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.70 xFIP to a 4.10 xERA over three starts before hitting the IL. You thought it was worse. I did too. He even had a 111 Stuff+ grade and 50% ground ball rate, but .410 BABIP and 39.6 LOB%.”
It was worse in Pittsburgh. He struck out five (14.9 SwStr%), but walked four and had a 44.4% hard contact rate without making it out of the fourth inning. Snell has yet to complete five innings and is down to a 10.4 K-BB% and 107 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 119 (116 Road, 141 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.24
Two quality bullpens, but I’ll take a pair of strong, hot offenses to pummel a pair of struggling pitchers, one whom I don’t expect anything out of this season. We’re getting plus money on 4.5 F5.
Update 2:20 EST: With temps below 60, the F5 total has moved from -105 to 4.5 even money. Significant line movement towards the Giants.
Marlins @ Padres
Trevor Rogers has allowed 25 runs (22 earned) over his last 25 innings and that’s counting five shutout innings in Detroit two starts back. He has generated exactly half his contact on the ground, but with a 47.8 Hard% and 8.1 K-BB%, estimators range from a 4.27 xFIP to a 5.30 xERA. He’ll also be tacking his 34 grade slider (20.7%, -4 RV/100) against one of the top slider hitting teams in baseball (0.55 wSL/C is third best in baseball).
Opp wRC+: 83 (19.1 K%)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.93
Michael King has allowed nine runs over his last 12 innings, despite striking out 13 of 52 batters with just four walks. It’s been feast or famine with him (and also five unearned runs), allowing three or more runs six times, but just a total of three runs over his other five outings. Aside from a 10.6 BB%, which his just 8% after walking 10 of his first 37 batters, King’s numbers are great. He’s struck out 25.5% with a 34.5% hard contact rate. An astounding 12 of his 14 barrels have left the park, but all of his non-FIP estimators are below a 4.28 ERA. Pitch modeling sees him as an average pitcher as well with a 93 Stuff+ grade, but 100 Pitching+, along with a 3.95 Bot ERA with pitch grades ranging from 48 (changeup) to 54 (sweeper).
Opp wRC+: 88 (73 Road)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.39
Update 3:35 EST: Below 70 degrees, near 10 mph wind blowing across the field.
Astros @ Mariners
The Angels shelled Framber Valdez for eight runs (three home runs on two barrels) last time out, which gives him a pair of stinkers (including one against the Mariners), wrapped around a pair of seven inning gems against the Tigers and A’s. He has another 7.2 shutout innings against the Blue Jays in his second start of the season, but there might be some problems here .Starting with the good, he’s generating 65.3% of his contact on the ground, which keeps his barrel rate low (4.1%), despite a 49.2% hard hit rate. In fact, all five of his barrels and home runs have come in those two starts against the Angels and Mariners. His strikeout rate is a career low 19.9%, though his 11.1 SwStr% and 17.3 CStr% are both within 0.3 points of his career averages. His sinker velocity is down 1.5 mph from last year, but considering the 111 Stuff+ grade, it’s not how hard he’s throwing it, but where he’s throwing it 101 Pitching+ and 4.12 Bot ERA. In fact, PitchingBot does not hand out an overall grade above 50 (curveball) with the sinker earning a 49 overall grade. The contact neutral estimators remain more than a run below his 4.32 ERA because of all the ground balls and even his xERA is only 3.92. Things should eventually be okay, but it feels like he has some fixes to make before that happens.
Opp wRC+: 95 (26.2 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.60
Bryce Miller has allowed 16 runs (15 earned) over his last 23.1 innings with six home runs on nine barrels (12%). Nine of his 17 strikeouts over this span came against the A’s, but the other teams he’s faced in this run have been the Astros, Orioles and Yankees, all on the road. Letting Miller off the hook for that difficult run, he’s still running a 17.3 K-BB% on the season, but is now up to 13.3% Barrels/BBE on the year with a 44.9% hard contact rate. However, he pitches in Seattle, where only three of his 10 home barrels have turned into home runs, though estimators ranging from a 3.69 SIERA to a 4.47 FIP (eight home runs on 11 barrels on the road) are all a bit above his 3.53 ERA. Contrary to Valdez, Miller’s worst PitchingBot grade is 53 (sinker) with a 3.07 Bot ERA and 112 Stuff+ grade (104 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 116 (18 K%)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.87
Update 4:55 EST: No lineups or umpire here yet, but adding the under (7.5 -112), mostly because it's the most negative run environment in baseball. As shown above, only three of Bryce Miller's 10 barrels at home have left the yard.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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