Finally got around to looking at some of the new bat speed stuff on Statcast. There is some interesting stuff there, though as I suspected and confirmed through reading some correlation articles, they really don't give us anything that improves much upon what we already have in Barrels and hard hit rates. I might try to incorporate it some of it at some point because what I do like is that they make it easier to run splits than with their other leaderboards. Hopefully, they'll all be moving in that direction soon. It probably also helps to know which pitchers are being squared up or "blasted" too often, if that information differs from Barrels and hard hit rate.
About two-thirds of the way through it. A short Monday recap, finally won a game that beat the closing line by more than four percent, though it wasn't easy. Cardinals jumped out to a five run lead and Sonny Gray hadn't allowed a hit on 60 pitches through five. Two errors, a home run and an infield hit later and it's 5-3 with Gray out of the game. The Gray/Houck lineup with the Rengifo/Otto Lopez IF & STL outfield did well though.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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Mets @ Guardians
Adrian Houser returns to the rotation after a pair of unimpressive two inning relief outings. His best estimator is a 5.20 FIP and that’s only because a pair of his nine barrels have left the park (5.74 xERA). He’s walked six more batters (23) than he’s struck out (17) and doesn’t have a single offering reaching even a 45 PitchingBot grade (5.10 Bot ERA, 93 Stuff+). LHBs, of which he’ll likely face at least seven, exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Houser since last season.
Opp wRC+: 96 (18.9 K%, 112 Home, 115 L7 days)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.9
Carlos Carrasco has an 8.1 K-BB% that looks like Cy Young next to Houser. With eight of 10 barrels leaving the yard, his WORST estimator is a 5.34 FIP. That doesn’t mean he’s been good. His best estimator is a 4.58 xFIP. Just better than Houser. Carrasco doesn’t have a single offering reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade (5.07 Bot ERA, 94 Stuff+). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 104 (20 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 2.95
I had not envisioned backing Carlos Carrasco at any point this year, but here we are. He’s been the far better bad pitcher than Houser and the Guardians have a much better bullpen with Diaz struggling, while not really having a deficit in any area of play. (Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps before publication.)
Update 3:25 EST: Hitter friendly weather, umpire. Curry in for Carrasco. Don't think it makes much of a difference. Line increase (2.73% gain on Cleveland). Mets add Taylor and Vientos for Bader and Baty.
Padres @ Reds
Joe Musgrove hit the IL (elbow) after his best start of the season, striking out nine Reds. He hasn’t pitched since May 1st and does not appear to have pitched in a rehab game. Those nine strikeouts brought Musgrove up to a 20.1 K% on the season, but with a 12.4 SwStr%, which will hopefully help drop some estimators below four eventually.
Opp wRC+: 78 (27.2 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.5
While Andrew Abbott has only allowed more than two earned runs in one start this year (four in Texas), that’s more a byproduct of a .245 BABIP and 88.1 LOB%, as he’s struck out just 20.1% of batters faced on an even less impressive 8.3 SwStr% and 41.9 Z-O-Swing%. He does have a 2.77 xERA with just a 31.8% hard contact rate, but he doesn’t’ have another estimator within a run of his 3.06 ERA. Pitch modeling validates the concerns with a 93 Stuff+ grade (96 Pitching+) and 4.42 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 88 (9.7 K-BB%, 9.8 HR/FB – though probably worse after Sale)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.63
Update 4:50 EST: Bogaerts remains out. Some guy with a hard name to pronounce leads off for the Reds.
Giants @ Pirates
The strikeouts are down (18.7 K%, 7.1 SwStr%, 92.7 Z-Contact%) and he’s now walked 10 of his last 98, but Logan Webb still has just a 6.8 BB% and 58.4 GB%. The problem, aside from the lack of strikeouts, is a 50.8% hard hit rate that produces a 4.85 xERA. With just two of 12 barrels leaving the park, non-FIP estimators range from a 3.33 xFIP and dERA to a 3.55 SIERA. Well, basically, those ARE all his estimators. Pitch modeling still loves Webb (113 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+) and his changeup (36.2%, 59 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 80 (82 Home)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.26
Martin Perez has allowed at least three runs in fewer than six innings in five of his last six starts, including nine for the Brewers last time out. He has similar peripherals (18.2 K%, 7.3 SwStr%, 6.4 BB%) to Webb with a 45.7% hard hit rate, but just a 41.4 GB%. His best estimator is a 4.25 xFIP with a 5.45 xERA topping it all off. Perez also has just a 71 Stuff+ grade (95 Pitching+, 4.75 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 102 (20.5 K%, 146 L7 days)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.11
The kids are alright. At least from San Francisco’s point of view. Luis Matos has been tearing it up, lessening the team’s injury concerns. Fairly large edges all around for the Giants here (42 point Stuff+ gap!), but I’m showing slightly more value on the F5 line (-130).
Update 5:05 EST: Gained 1.46% on SF F5.
Rangers @ Phillies
If slider boy shuts down the Phillies too, I might have to start believing. What? He only three 33 sliders against Cleveland, but still shut them out over 6.1 innings with three strikeouts and a 73.7 GB%. Fine. The slider is his best graded pitch via PitchingBot at 46, leading an 81 Stuff+ grade overall.
Opp wRC+: 113 (20.3 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.11
Ranger Suarez broke a streak of seven straight quality starts in which he averaged seven innings when the Mets got to him for no earned runs (two unearned) over five innings and struck out only three times. Suarez still has a 21.9 K-BB%, 57.1 GB% and 28.4% hard hit rate with his worst estimator less than a run and a half above his 1.37 ERA. His 85 Stuff+ grade turns into 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 86 (73 L7 days)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.26
Update 3:45 EST: Slightly pitcher friendly umpire neutralizes slightly hitter friendly weather. Smart move by the Phils to get that extra fifth LHB (Clemens) in there. TEX lineup looks far less imposing without Garcia and Grossman batting third.
Brewers @ Marlins
Robert Gasser will be making his first road start after striking out just six of 42 Pirates and Cardinals, but with a league average 10.6 SwStr%, just one walk, no barrels and a 20.6% hard hit rate. Pitch modeling probably tells us more than estimators at this point and there he is with a perfectly average 100 Stuff+ and 3.85 Bot ERA, though his only above average pitch is the sweeper (37.3%, 58 grade).
Opp wRC+: 67 (21 K%, 6.1 BB%, 5.5 HR/FB)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.03
Best start of the season for Trevor Rogers in Detroit. He struck out six of 21 batters over five shutout innings, but still has a single digit K-BB% and 45.8% hard contact rate with his lowest estimator being a 4.22 xFIP. His 85 Stuff+ grade inspires no confidence, but a 100 Pitching+ one seems optimistic.
Opp wRC+: 105 (10.5 BB%, 17.1 HR/FB)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.89
Update 4:45 EST: Slight pitcher lean for the umpire. Monestario & Myers in the leadoff spots.
Twins @ Nationals
The Yankees barreled Joe Ryan three times in his last start. He only allowed five fly balls. In his last two starts the Blue Jays and Yankees have five barrels and a 51.4% hard hit rate. He’s not walking anybody this year though. Well, seven walks, which is the same amount of home runs he’s allowed. So, by proxy, he’s not allowing any home runs either then. His 24.1 K-BB% is 10th best in baseball. It’s not the stuff (94 Stuff+). It’s how he uses it (106 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 3
B30: 4.09
Patrick Corbin faced 23 White Sox in his last start and struck out none of them. I’m not even mad. I’m impressed. He has a 13.2 K% and 48.8% hard contact rate.
Opp wRC+: 109 (35 L7 days)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4
Red Sox @ Rays
This is a rematch from last week, where both pitchers entered a cool day at Fenway pitching well and both underwhelmed. Cooper Criswell was the larger culprit, lasting just 3.2 innings with three strikeouts and a 46.2% hard hit rate. He’s still sitting on an impressive 17.5 K-BB%, but a 7.7 SwStr% implies that it may not be sustainable. However, non-FIP estimators don’t exceed three and a half and pitch modeling loves him (106 Stuff+, 3.20 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.47
Zach Littell allowed four over five innings in that one and struck out only three as well with a 55% hard hit rate, including three barrels. Yet, he still retains an 18.8 K-BB%, 5.8% Barrrels/BBE and 33.1% hard contact. PitchingBot (3.70 Bot ERA) likes him more than Stuff+ (84).
Opp wRC+: 100 (114 Road, 113 L7 days)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.90
Update 3:35 EST: Some shuffling of the TB lineup. Still four LHBs, but more strikeouts than originally anticipated. BOS sticking with same six LHBs from yesterday. With a slightly pitcher friendly umpire too, I've played u8.5 (-118).
Mariners @ Yankees
Bryan Woo has struck out eight of 35 batters (KC, OAK) through a pair of starts (78.6 Z-Contact%) with just two walks and a single run. He hasn’t allowed a barrel yet. Pitching Bot grades the fastball (50.4%) marginally (48), but the sinker (26.2%) gets a 66 grade, while the overall package has been strong so far (3.40 Bot ERA, 110 Stuff+). He was sitting on one of his lower fastball velocities last time out (94.6 mph).
Opp wRC+: 129 (9.1 K-BB%, 15.9 HR/FB) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.48
Increased cutter usage (27.9% to 35.5%) has helped Clarke Schmidt neutralize his LHBs issues (.376 wOBA 2023, .286 2024) and become a complete pitcher. After failing to complete six innings in any of his first seven starts, he’s not allowed a run over 14.2 innings in his last two. Now up to a 19.6 K-BB% with just a 33.3% hard contact rate, estimators run a tight 3.36 dERA to 3.72 xERA range. The cutter is his second best pitch (1.8 RV/100) via PitchingBot grade (58) with only the curveball (17.4%, 1 RV/100) grading better (65). Schmidt also carries an impressive 112 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 98 (28.9 K%)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.53
DFS Notes: On an eight game slate that includes just a pair of domes, we have weather. And I mean wind and potentially some rain. The result is a quarter of the board reaching five implied runs with more than half above four and a half. I have a clear top and second best pitcher on this board, who are not cheap, but not necessarily the most expensive on a day without Aces. And weather impacts allows me to build strong lineups as well.
We start with a game where weather shouldn’t have much of an effect at all, if the 10 mph winds keep blowing right to left with temps around 70. And we get to my top pitcher right away. Third most expensive on FD ($9.9K) and just $8.4K on DK, Clarke Schmidt has been pitching as well as, if not better than, anybody on the board and is in a high upside spot in one of the more pitcher friendly environments on the board, as luck would have it today. An average offense with a ton of strikeouts, the Mariners have the second lowest team total on the board (3.6). My interest in Seattle bats is virtually non-existent, considering Schmidt’s new prowess against LHBs. Woo is probably too expensive for the workload against a monster offense (or duo). The Yankees are the exact middle of the board at 4.6 implied runs and Woo does have a large split (LHBs .377 wOBA, .335 xwOBA career). Soto (171 wRC+, .267 ISO v RHP since LY) is a top bat if you can afford him. Two of last three for Munoz (33), while Holmes (34) got blown up last night.
Update 4:30 EST: Grisham in for Stanton gets another LHB against Woo. Still a couple of guys (Polanco, Haniger) out for the Mariners.
White Sox @ Blue Jays
Safe to say Garrett Crochet is back on track, allowing just three runs over his last four outings (22 IP), striking out 30 of 83 batters. Now sitting on a 27.9 K-BB% that’s second best in the majors among qualified pitchers, Crochet’s only estimator reaching three is a 3.27 FIP with eight of his six barrels (4.8%) leaving the park. Yes, you read that right. All remaining estimators are more than a run and a half below his 4.18 ERA. If that doesn’t get you, how about a 69 grade cutter (22.5%, 2 RV/100, 31.3 Whiff%) and 66 grade fastball (51.5%, 0.8 RV/100, 25.7 Whiff%) via PitcihngBot (2.45 Bot ERA, 108 Stuff+). Oh, and who is a bottom five offense against cutters (-2.06 wFC/C) and bottom 10 against fastballs (-0.25 wFA/C)? That would be the Blue Jays.
Opp wRC+: 97 (7.4 K-BB%, 8.2 HR/FB)
DEF: -8
B30: 4.32
Yusei Kikuchi exited after striking out nine of 20 Orioles through 4.1 innings last time out and that team has been mashing LHP this year. It’s his third time with exactly nine strikeouts this season. That plus two more with seven are mostly responsible for a 21.5 K-BB% with just 6.9% Barrels/BBE. The biggest difference between the results of the two pitchers is that just four of Kikuchi’s 10 barrels have turned into home runs. His worst estimator is still just a 3.14 SIERA, his only estimator more than half a run removed from a 2.60 ERA. Kikuchi’s three main pitches (fastball, curveball, slider) all grade 57 or better via PB (FB, CV > 60). The second worst offense against sliders (-1.29 wSL/C) and worst against fastballs by half a run (-1.45 wFA/C)? It’s the White Sox
Opp wRC+: 60 (18.6 K-BB%, 5.6 HR/FB)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.34
This one seems pretty clear to me. F5 u4.5 (-140).
DFS Notes: And as you can probably tell from the above, my second favorite pitcher comes from this game. Kikuchi and Crochet are the top two priced pitchers on the board (though not exorbitant on DK), but I like the value of the former much more in a much better matchup. The White Sox (3.5) are the low team on the board here. The Blue Jays get to 4.7 implied runs and while I think that’s a bit much with RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Crochet since last year, I’m concerned about the lack of upside in the lineup (eight below an 18.5 K% v LHP since LY), I have slight interest in Davis Schneider (197 wRC+, .434 ISO v LHP since LY) at reasonable cost. Two of last three for Garcia (32).
Update 5:15 EST: No official word on the roof, though there are some pics on Twitter of it open. Would hurt the F5 under, but the price for u4.5 has risen above -200.
Tigers @ Royals
Casey Mize has an impressive 110 Stuff+ grade and 3.59 Bot ERA with only single below average graded pitch (curveball 8%), but the proficiency shows up more in his walk (5.5%) and ground ball (52.1%) rates. However, he’s barely squeaking by with a 17.5 K% and 45% hard hit rate. While all estimators are above his 3.50 ERA, none reach four. Mize has four quality starts in his last six and has only allowed more than two earned once since his first start.
Opp wRC+: 96 (18.4 K%) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.92
A little birdie told me that Alec Marsh has been locating better and not just tossing it right down the middle and praying, as he’s struck out seven in each of his last two starts with a total of five hard hit batted balls in LA (AL) and Seattle. Those are two very strikeout prone teams, but we can check this via Statcast game logs. Welp, no. He mixed his pitches well, but was still either right down the middle or uncompetitive on a lot of his pitches, most even. It’s another decent spot, but beware the Tigers. The young cubs have begun to roar. Wait, no, the cubs are another team. Batters from either side are above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Marsh since last year.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.26
DFS Notes: In the 70s with a double digit wind out to right field turns a positive run environment into a more power friendly one (for LHBs at least). Both teams are at 4.9 implied runs here with conditions killing any thought I have about low upside pitching in marginal matchups anyway. Bobby Witt (119 wRC+, .215 ISO v RHP since LY) is my second best SS (RHBs .337 wOBA, .311 xwOBA v Mize), but Mize does keep batters from both sides grounded above 50% of the time, which narrows my interest in Royals outside of a full stack. Marsh is the pitcher I’d rather attack with affordable bats from either side (see above for his splits or lack of). Greene, Perez and Carpenter all exceed a 130 wRC+ and .190 ISO v RHP since last year and 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days. And aside from Greene on DK ($5.4K), all are reasonably priced and probably too cheap on FD. Two of last three for Lange (39).
Update 5:25 EST: So, a pair of pitchers with slight reverse splits and both managers have added a LHB (Frazier & McKinstry) to their lineup.
Braves @ Cubs
Another rematch from last week, Charlie Morton was spanked by the Cubs, not recording a fourth inning out, just one start after three hitting the Mets with seven strikeouts over seven innings. Overall, he’s been fine (14.6 K-BB%), maybe even better than last year (33.1% hard contact) with his 3.52 ERA below, though within half a run of all estimators. One small concern is a 90.4 Z-Contact% that’s his worst since Pittsburgh. Morton also has just a 91 Stuff+ grade (98 Pitching+) and 4.23 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 96 (9.9 BB%) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.86
Javier Assad struck out seven of 23 Braves over six shutout innings last Wedneday. He still doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator (two home runs, nine barrels) within a run and a half of his 1.49 ERA, but I have to admit, a 3.09 xERA is not so bad and even his worst estimator, a 4.00 SIERA, is better than league average. Now, for the bad news. It’s probably not sustainable with just a 6.4 SwStr% (3.39 K/SwStr%) and 92.5 Z-Contact% (second worst today). Pitch modeling is not buying in either (89 Stuff+). Assad’s top graded pitch is a sinker he throws most often (30.8%), but with just a 47 PB grade.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -9
B30: 3.65
DFS Notes: Only mid-80s with a 25 mph wind out to left at Wrigley. Any pitching ideas I didn’t have anyway are even deader now. The Braves are the top team on the board (5.7) with the Cubs third (5.1). With Statcast reversing Morton’s actual split last year, let’s just say that all batters are between a .299 and .336 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Amaya and Swanson are the only pair in the projected Chicago lineup, which may now be back to full strength, below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year, though the latter (94 wRC+, .153 ISO) is my top value SS on DK at just $2.8K. Tauchman (115, .140) is a great value too for less than $4K. Aside from Amaya, there really are no poor choices here. Similar can be said for the Braves outside of Zack Short and Orlando Arcia. Travis D’Arnaud (81, .163) is the only other projected bat below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last season, but he’s also one of just two (Ozuna) above a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Matt Olson (163, .313) is my top FD value ($3.3K). The entire top half of the Atlanta pen pitched in the double-header yesterday, but only Jimenez more than 20 pitches.
Update 4:55 EST: Swanson bats eighth.
Update 6 EST: Playing Olson for FD Dinger Tuesday promo (+250), fully expecting to at least get my original wager back.
Orioles @ Cardinals
Kyle Bradish has looked good in three starts back, but the Orioles are babying him a little bit because he still has a partially torn UCL. They’ve not let him go beyond 90 pitches yet, but the results have been great (18.1 K-BB%, 20% hard hit rate) and pitch modeling is on board (108 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+). I do want to note that while shoulder issues may show up in velocity, elbow injuries show up in control/command and he has walked two in each start (9.8%).
Opp wRC+: 103 (140 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.29
Just six home runs for Lance Lynn this year (11.1 HR/FB), but 14 barrels (10.2% is the same as last year) and he’s now down to an 11.4 K-BB%. With just an 82 Stuff+ grade (92 Pitching+), he doesn’t’ have a single average pitch (46 four-seam via PB is his best grade) and LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year (RHBs > .310).
Opp wRC+: 99 (20.5 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.68
DFS Notes: This is another tremendous hitting spot (mid-80s, near 20 mph wind out to left)…if the rain holds off. Workload already kills Bradish and weather even interests me in some St Louis bats (4.2 runs), namely Nootbaar (132 wRC+, .190 ISO v RHP since last year) and Donovan (118, .160). LHBs have a .274 wOBA and .305 xwOBA against Bradish since last year. The Orioles (5.0) are fourth on the board. Bombs away on Lance Lynn, weather permitting. Mountcastle, Mullins and Mateo are the only three projected O’s below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year, although they’ve been struggling a bit this year. Gunnar Henderson (144, .293) is a top three bat for me, Ryan O’Hearn (130, .190) a top value. Three of last four for Romero and King.
Update 5:30 EST: Pitcher friendly umpire. Still looking at rain potential ending this early. I'm to embrace the risk for DFS purposes. Westburg and Cowser move up, Mountcastle down and Santander out for Stowers.
Update 6:15 EST: I've actually moved off of Cardinal bats in this game, not due to weather, but better values in DET OFers & replaced Donovan with Vierling on DK. I still have O'Hearn in single entry lineups on both sites.
Angels @ Astros
A single run over Griffin Canning’s last 11.2 innings against the esteemed teams from Missouri comes with just eight strikeouts and five walks. That 6.4 K-BB% drags his season mark down to 7.9%. He also allowed four barrels in these last two starts and 15 (10.2%) on the year. A 5.78 dERA is Canning’s only estimator more than one-third of a run outside his 5.21 ERA. Pitch modeling doesn’t like him one bit either (5.00 Bot ERA, 86 Stuff+). How about a 38 grade fastball (32.4%, -1.6 RV/100) against an offense that smashes fastballs (0.62 wFA/C is second best in the majors)?
Opp wRC+: 114 (17.9 K%, 131 Home, 138 L7 days)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.96
After not making it out of the second inning against Detroit in his first start back from the IL, Cristian Javier turned in a gem against the A’s, striking out eight of 21 with just three base runners over six shutout innings. I also wrote this before that last start, “The 91.3 mph he averaged against those 13 Tigers was his worst game average velocity on record too”. It was 91.0 against the A’s. I’m not convinced he’s out of the wood yet. A 3.93 xERA (28.7% hard hit rate) is his best estimator with a 12.4 BB% over six starts. All other non-FIPs are above five. Pitch modeling offers a 113 Stuff+ grade, but again, that walk rate…a 97 Pitching+ grade. PitchingBot sees a 63 grade changeup (27.7%), but everything else below a 45 grade.
Opp wRC+: 96 (126 L7 days)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.65
I don’t know if Javier is trustable, but I do think the Astros are going to score some runs here. A hot team that has been hammering the ball at home against below average pitcher and bad defense, let’s go o4.5 (-130).
DFS Notes: Despite the neutral run environment, the Astros (5.5) have the second highest team total and are our last five run offense tonight. That is because batters from either side are between a .307 and .337 wOBA and xwOBA against Canning since last year with Statcast slightly reversing an actual reverse split. Altuve, Alvarez and Tucker all exceed a 140 wRC+ and .210 ISO v RHP since last year with the latter owning a 210 wRC+ over the last 30 days, one of just four projected Astros above 100 over that span. I feel Houston bats are at least sufficiently priced here as weather in now more hitter friendly environments was not factored into pricing. The entire top half of the Angels' pen has thrown two of the last three days.
Update 5:45 EST: McCormick back. Pillar in against a RHP. Price on HOU total (4.5) has moved from -130 to -140.
Rockies @ Athletics
Five quality starts with a single run or less over Cal Quantrill’s last six starts. He’s done this with a 7.5 K-BB%, but no special contact profile indicators, aside from a 54.8 GB% over this span. With a 44.6 Z-O-Swing% that’s second worst on the DFS main slate (Lynn), Quantrill has estimators all above four for the season and over this six start run. His 94 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades, along with a 4.42 Bot ERA, also illustrate a below average pitcher. LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 101 (64, 25.3 K-BB%, 7.1 HR/FB L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.46
Aaron Brooks liked his return to the majors so much, he stuck around for 28 Astros and was pretty good, striking out five of 28 with three runs over seven innings. PitchingBot even gave the sinker (15) and changeup (17) grades above 60 with a 99 Stuff+ overall. An 11 K-BB% over 107 AAA innings for the Padres and A’s over the last two seasons doesn’t seem to indicate a quality starter and his projections have worsened his first start, above four and a half, but that’s likely because they had him more in a relief role prior.
Opp wRC+: 82 (26.3 K%)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.57
DFS Notes: We finish with the two coolest spots on the board (weather wise), easily making Oakland the most pitcher friendly environment on the board, which, I’m fine with posting up Brooks in an SP2 spot if you want to take that risk in a great spot against the Rockies on the road. Heck, even Quantrill might be worth a shot at $6K. Both teams are bottom half of the board, though the A’s reach 4.3 runs with a light wind out to right center and temps in the 60s. With Quantrill’s split (see above), Toro (134 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP since LY) remains a great value.
Update 5:55 EST: Add one of the most pitcher friendly umpires to what might already be the most negative run environment on the board. J.D. Davis gets a start against a RHP. Bryant back, Montero out.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Brandon Pfaadt followed up not striking out any of 25 Orioles with a season low 4.5 SwStr% by dropping nine of 25 Reds, allowing just two hits and walks each over seven innings. Up to an 18.3 K-BB%, Pfaadt also has more infield flies generated (10) than barrels (8). Estimators ranging from a 3.06 xERA to a 3.91 dERA remain below a 4.17 ERA (63.4 LOB%). PitchingBot really likes Pfaadt (2.67 Bot ERA, 65 grade fastball, 67 slider), who has above average Stuff+ (104) and Pitching+ (106) grades too.
Opp wRC+: 121 (129 Home)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.54
Gavin Stone has four straight quality starts with exactly a run allowed in each. He’s also struck out just 13 of 99 batters and allowed seven of his eight barrels this year over this span. With just a 7.1 K-BB% on the season, a strong contact profile (31.2% hard hit rate) is the only thing keeping a pair of his estimators (FIP, xERA) barely below four and more than half a run below contact neutral estimators. PitchingBot gives him a 4.53 ERA, while Stone also has just 95 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 91 (10.7 K-BB%, 8.7 HR/FB)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.33
Don’t want any part of these bullpens, but the peripherals show that Arizona is probably a better lineup than their 91 wRC+ against RHP. They also have the better defense, while Pfaadt’s estimators are a full run better than Stone’s. I’ll put the back in D’Back for +126 (F5).
DFS Notes: With temps around 60, but a near double digit wind out to right center, the Dodgers fall just below five runs (4.9) with the Diamondbacks at just 3.8. That said, the pitcher I’d have more interest in for an SP2 spot, would be Pfaadt at just $7.1K. It’s high risk with some upside, but he does have some issues with LHBs (.356 wOBA, .327 xwOBA career). Always Shohei (205 wRC+, .373 ISO v RHP since LY) if you can afford him. He may not be my top bat considering conditions across the board tonight, but he’s still probably top five. Three of last four for Hudson.
Update 6:10 EST: Dodgers do Pfaadt a favor adding Vargas for Heyward, giving him just three LHBs to contend with. Gain 2.48% on D'Backs F5.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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