Baseball is the most volatile sport and therefore the most humbling, I believe. The best teams/pitchers never win all of their games against the worst teams/pitchers. This volatility allows me to know that I'm going to be wrong several times each day, often more than I'm right if I'm playing more underdogs or looking for lesser owned daily fantasy plays. I'm really bad at self-promotion due to this constant humbling. Maybe if I specialized in another sport or area, where the expectation is to be right most or almost all of the time, I'd be better. But I'm just a guy who spends a lot of time reading about and researching baseball. In writing these game/pitcher breakdowns, I'm hoping I'm giving readers enough good information to make their own optimal decisions, not necessarily following mine.
The long winded point I'm trying to get to is that I've been doing this for almost two months now and the good news is that there's been little to no reader attrition. Page views and website statistics tell me there's virtually no drop off in readership, but it's starting to become stagnant. This is a bit disappointing because I was hoping readership would be growing at a faster pace than this and I know, just like social media followers, these things come in bursts. It has to grow in order to continue though. I can be patient and love doing this, but it is very time consuming and that I'm going to need to see some sort of sustainable growth within the next month or so, nearing the All-Star break. At which point, I'll actually have some time to learn the inner workings of the content creation software better and produce better daily posts. Anyway, that's what's been going through my mind the last few days. If you like it, tell your other baseball watching friends. Now, onto the baseball.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Padres @ Braves (G1)
Dylan Cease broke a string of seven straight starts with at least six innings pitched, six of them quality starts of two runs or less, when the Rockies got him for three runs in 5.2 innings in San Diego. Let it be known that the second run of that game scored on his last batter of the game, while the reliever let that runner come all the way around from first with two outs. It was still the fourth time in five starts he’s struck out at least eight and with a single walk last time out, dropping him to an 8.2 BB% to go with the a 32.7 K%. The contact profile is a bit perplexing with plenty of barrels (10.7%), but little hard contact (33.9%). In fact, the barrels, of which he’s allowed just a pair over his last three starts, account for 31.7% of his hard hit rate. Cease still has just a single estimator reaching three (3.20 xFIP) with one of the best one-two steps (fastball/slider) in the game, generating a 120 Stuff+ grade. The Braves have been banged up. It sounds like D’arnaud could return Monday and I’d assume he catches the first game with theses two teams also playing the Sunday night game. Austin Riley remains a question mark and the Atlanta offense has suffered from their omissions.
Opp wRC+: 105 (97 wRC+, 27.6 K% L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.39
After starting the season with four straight quality starts, Reynaldo Lopez has recorded just a single sixth inning out over his last three with a mere 11.9 K-BB% and four of his six barrels on the season allowed. We can see the decline in his pitch modeling, which now grades only the curveball he throws 10.1% of the time as better than average (56 PB) with every other pitch receiving a 45 or 46 grade in addition to just a 96 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ grade. Just a pair of his barrels have left the yard with all non-FIP estimators tightly between a 3.72 xERA and 3.91 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 119 (19.7 K%, 116 Road, 119 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.48
Even taking Lopez’s season numbers at face value, despite the fall off over his last three starts, where in the world is any Atlanta edge in this game? With no first five line available and San Diego one of the top pens in the league over the last month anyway, I’m jumping the early line that has the Padres a dog (+105), which I don’t expect to be the case by Monday morning. DraftKings is not charging extra to play “listed pitchers” here. I don’t know if it’s the new policy yet or just an outlier, but I’m certainly taking advantage of it in this instance. (Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network to get early info dumps like this one, well before publication.)
Update 11:45: Lineups exactly as projected. ATL now down to a 103 wRC+ v RHP. Phil Cuzzi appears to be the umpire for the first game. Pitcher friendly. Not as much line movement as I expected (1.22% gain).
White Sox @ Blue Jays
After getting clobbered for five runs in less than five innings in St Louis, Erick Fedde hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last two starts (13 IP). He’s done this with just a 5.9 SwStr%, but without a walk or a barrel. With four quality starts in his last five and a 17 K-BB% on the season, Fedde posts estimators ranging from a 3.20 dERA to a 3.89 FIP, still well above his 2.60 ERA (.245 BABIP, 86.9 LOB%), but we have to question if even those are sustainable with just a 7.9 SwStr% (2.97 K/SwStr). One way would be to offer an elite CStr%, but his is just average at 16.9%. PitchingBot does grade his cutter, sweeper and splitter (69.8% of pitchces) between 56 and 58 with an overall 3.49 Bot ERA, but Stuff+ disagrees with this assessment (98 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+). Fedde is almost certainly a better pitcher than his Washington days, but how much remains to be seen.
Opp wRC+: 92 (20.3 K%, 8.8 HR/FB)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 4.33
Estimators ranging from a 4.08 dERA to a 4.67 FIP immediately tell us that Jose Berrios’s 2.83 ERA is a fraud (.229 BABIP, 88.6 LOB%). With just an 8.2 SwStr%, he deserves that 19.5 K% with no help from a contact profile that includes a 45.7% hard hit rate. Pitch modeling won’t do much to save him either with his top pitch a 54 grade sinker via PB (35.7%, 1.8 RV/100), but not much behind it and a 94 Stuff+ grade overall. Berrios has allowed multiple home runs in two straight starts and multiple barrels in three of his last five.
Opp wRC+: 78 (67 Road, 78 L7 days)
DEF: 14
B30: 4.17
I may not buy into Fedde’s estimators, but I’m still confident he can’t be any worse than Berrios’s underlying metrics. The biggest advantage for the Jays is defense, considering their slumping offense (50 wRC+ L7 days) and mere 14 point wRC+ edge against RHP this year. However, here I’m willing to wait a bit on an F5 line and come back later without much fear of this line moving too much, along with the White Sox owning the fourth worst bullpen estimators in baseball over the last 30 days, even if the Blue Jays are just three spots ahead.
What’s been a mere blip for you has actually been several hours since writing the above paragraph and we finally have a F5 line (+140), which means full game it is (+170).
Update 1:25 EST: Roof open increases run environment from 98 to 104 on average, but pitcher leaning umpire (Bucknor) could nullify some of that. No movement on the line.
Mets @ Guardians
Tylor Megill faced just 18 batters over four innings before hitting the IL with a shoulder issue. There was a bit of ado over the spring (20.2 K-BB% in 20.2 IP) about a pair of new pitches he’d been developing in a splitter (seven) and cutter (nine), which we saw a combined total of 16 times before his early exit. Unfortunately, PitchingBot gave them grades of 23 and 21 in such a small sample, but Stuff+ gives him a 99 overall grade for the shortened outing. Unfortunately, not enough info to deduce anything. Megill has struck out 23 of the 50 minor league batters he’s faced, walking just one with a single home run over various levels. He did strike out 13 of 33 without allowing a run over 9.1 AAA innings. I’m curious, if not excited to see what he has to offer that might be new.
Opp wRC+: 98 (18.9 K%, 118 Home, 122 L7 days)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.91
It seems as if the clock has struck midnight on Ben Lively. He’s struck out just seven of his last 50 batters faced with six walks and five barrels (13.5%) and has just a 6.5 K-BB% against any team not from Boston this year. Even with his two start dominance of Boston included, Lively’s best estimator is a 4.21 xERA that’s more than a run above a 3.06 ERA (88.2 LOB%). Pitch modeling doesn’t really absolve him either with a 3.93 Bot ERA, but 77 Stuff+ grade (96 Pitching+). LHBs have smoked him for a .360 wOBA (.357 wOBA) since last year with RHBs about 40 points lower, so we’ll see if the Mets attempt to sneak D.J. Stewart in there. J.D. Martinez was dealing with a stomach flu on Sunday.
Opp wRC+: 101 (20.2 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 2.91
Padres @ Braves (G2)
Against Colorado, Randy Vasquez has the following line: 6.1 – 35 BF – 9 – ER – 1 HR – 3 BB – 2 K
Against NOT Colorado (Cubs, Blue Jays), Randy Vasquez has the following line: 9.1 IP – 39 BF – 2 ER (5 R) – 2 HR – 2 BB – 9 K
The 9.5 SwStr% suggests the 14.9 K% should improve and help estimators ranging from a 4.27 dERA to a 5.28 xERA, but it’s only four starts. Vasquez also has some strong pitch metrics, including a 55 grade fastball (PB) that’s the only pitch he throws more than 20% of the time and a 107 Stuff+ grade overall. Vasquez has a 40+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) with a nasty curveball (70 FV grade, 50 PB grade this year). Perhaps he doesn’t improve much from his current situation, but he should remain a viable back end starter.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 0.5 (using Campusano here since he caught Sunday night)
B30: 3.39
Chris Sale has struck out 28 of his last 72 batters (17.6 SwStr%) and hasn’t been below a 12% swinging strike rate in any start this year yet. He’s dominated with a 27.2 K-BB% and he’s dominated with a 50.4 GB%, 4.1% Barrels/BBE and a 28.7% hard contact rate. In fact, all estimators are within a quarter of a run of his 2.54 ERA with only his 2.57 xERA sneaking above. He’s also doing this with just two pitches, a fastball (37.9%, 0.1 RV/100, 55 PB grade) and a slider (42.2%, 2.8 RV/100, 57 grade) generating a 109 Stuff+ grade overall.
Opp wRC+: 87 (9.0 K-BB%, 116 Road, 119 L7 days)
DEF: -4.5 (Tromp here as well after Sunday night)
B30: 3.48
How about that Chris Sale returning to dominance. And how about the Padres having the defensive and bullpen edges, while I believe peripherals get them closer to average (or even better) than the wRC+ suggests against LHP. You can probably see where I’m going here. I think +190 is too high. But the difference here is I’m not locking in listed pitchers because any sort of pitching change at that price would likely benefit the Padres.
Update 4:55 EST: Bogaerts out (injured G1). Duvall in against rare RHP.
Brewers @ Marlins
Joe Ross is coming off a 23.1 SwStr% against the Pirates last time out, bringing him up to 13.4% on the season. It’s not too often that two pitch starters thrive in this league, though we’ve already covered a pair today, and it’s even less often that you’ll find a sinker/slider guy with a reverse platoon split, but that’s what we have here so far. RHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Ross this season with LHBs below .290. Is it the elevated sinker? He’s throwing his four-seamer more against LHBs, but it’s not a great pitch (40 PB grade, -3.1 RV/100). He’s thrown 53 changeups against lefties and that pitch is the only one PitchingBot grades above average (57) with a sterling 2.5 RV/100. He doesn’t break it out often, but it’s been a big reason for his success. Let’s talk about that pitch modeling again (4.20 Bot ERA, 90 Stuff+). We already mentioned everything except the changeup is below 50 (PB) and while the arsenal grades below average overall, he does have a 97 Pitching+ grade. He’s also only faced a pair of above average offenses and both the Yankees and Padres smacked him around for exactly seven runs/six earned each. His overall 11.0 K-BB% and 10.1% Barrels/BBE don’t produce estimators any non-FIP estimators below four (four home runs, 13 barrels), but they’re all below his 4.61 ERA (62.3 LOB%). The elevated sinker doesn’t produce as many ground balls (41.4% overall), but he’s facing another bad offense here.
Opp wRC+: 91 (92 Home)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.01
Ryan Weathers is coming off eight three-hit, shutout innings in Detroit after three run quality starts in LA (NL) and Oakland. One or two of those things might be impressive. The major difference is that his 10.8 BB% over his first five starts has been just 1.8% over these three. His strikeout rate (16.4%) and swinging strike rate (7.8%) have both declined, as has his zone rate (41.6%) and first strike rate (57.5%), but the chase rate is up (32.7%). I’m not sure he can sustain this newfound success. A 4.30 SIERA is his closest estimator to a 3.81 ERA (.248 BABIP) and the pitch metrics on his secondary pitches are below average.
Opp wRC+: 105 (24.7 K%, 10.5 BB%, 17.1 HR/FB)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.88
DFS Notes: The weather is starting to warm up. I believe there are only a couple of spots below 70 degrees tonight on an eight game slate with three domes. We still only have a single team above five implied runs (in one of the cooler environments ironically), though nearly half the board reaches four and a half with only one other team above four, meaning half the board doesn’t exceed four runs either. None of tonight’s top pitchers are in favorable spots in terms of opposing team strikeout rates, so there will be some interesting decisions. I don’t see any pitcher being the clear favorite tonight. You could even consider paying down.
We start in a roofed, neutral run environment, according to Statcast, though still somewhat of a power dampener for RHBs. The Brewers are a top half of the board offense at 4.53 implied runs with the Marlins in the middle of the board at 3.97. In a strong matchup, Joe Ross is my favorite cheap pitcher tonight. That said, take a look at Otto Lopez (178 wRC+, .294 ISO v RHP, 165 wRC+ L30 days) as a $2.5K infielder on either site, if paying up for pitching. Weathers may not be terrible at the same price, but is not my preferred option against a lineup with some strikeouts, but also a very dangerous one. I like the pair of catchers here most: Gary Sanchez (180, .453 v RHP since LY, 181) and Contreras (182, .268, 167). The latter has opened some eyes with his top of the board standings in some of the new bat speed metrics on Statcast. Puk & Bender were up over 20 pitches on Sunday, while the Milwaukee pen was clean.
Update 4:15 EST: Brewers add a RHB with Weimer at the bottom (.367 wOBA, .342 xwOBA against Weathers since last year). Ortiz and Chourio moving on up the lineup.
Twins @ Nationals
Pablo Lopez only struck out three of 28 Yankees (7.3 SwStr%) with four barrels, but still snuck in a third straight quality start and fifth of the year, but the only when where he’s allowed more than a run. Please believe the 3.90 ERA is an aberration though. Lopez’s 24.8 K-BB% is better than last year, as is his 79 Z-Contact%, which is fifth in the majors among qualifiers. With seven home runs on 11 barrels (six of seven before his last start), all non-FIP estimators are below three. Lopez had a 57 grade changeup and 60 grade four-seam fastball via PitchingBot. Why mention those two pitches? Because Washington is bottom third of the league against both pitches.
Opp wRC+: 94 (53 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.88
Since shining in his first two major league starts against the Dodgers and Astros, Mitchell Parker has just a 15.3 K% over his last four starts. Those two starts still happened, giving him a 14.0 K-BB% overall without a single estimator reaching three, but all nearly at least half a run above his actual 3.09 ERA (78.6 LOB%). PitchingBot sees the profile as middling, which isn’t the worst thing. Parker has a 91 Stuff+, but 98 Pitching+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 110 (but 16.8 K-BB%, 9.6 HR/FB)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.86
DFS Notes: Low 70s with little wind effect, the Twins (4.52) are a top half of the board offense, while the Nationals (3.48) are closer to the bottom. We get to the first of our top arms today, in a top three run prevention spot and with a few more strikeouts now with Joey Gallo back (43.4% v RHP since LY), but also five projected who are below 20.5% v RHP since last year. That said, my top four pitchers are very close tonight and he’s right there, though currently not a part of any of my three single entry lineups. We go for another catcher from the Minnesota side (Ryan Jeffers 153 wRC+, .276 ISO v LHP since LY). It’s a strong position tonight, but I also like Carlos Correa (109, .163) as an affordable shortstop. He’s gotten his exit velocity back (102.4 top 50%, which is a new Statcast measure this year and actually the best in the projected Minnesota lineup) and has a 112 wRC+ at home since last season, which is second best in the projected lineup behind Jeffers (139). Duran two of last three, but only 23 pitches combined.
Update 3:45 EST: Slightly hitter friendly umpire (De Jesus).
Red Sox @ Rays
The addition of a splitter (22.5%, 0.9 RV/100, 54 PB grade) that solves Tanner Houck’s platoon problem (LHBs .366 wOBA, 10.8 K-BB% 2023, .252 wOBA, 14.5 K-BB% 2024) to an already dominant slider (43.3%, 2.2 RV/100, 65 PB grade) has brought Tanner Houck from fringe starter status to early Cy Young contention (19.6 K-BB%, 55.6 GB%, 3.7% Barrels/BBE). With most of his hard contact (44.4%) on the ground, Houck still generates a 3.39 xERA, which is his only estimator above three. He’s also gained the trust of his manager, being sent out for the sixth with more than 90 pitches last time out for his sixth and seventh strikeouts before being lifted. He’s averaging three full times through the order (27.1 BF) over his last seven starts.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.54
Taj Bradley has looked fairly sharp in his first two starts back (22.7 K-BB%), though the contact profile hasn’t been ideal (22.2% Barrels/BBE, 51.9% hard hit rate), especially last time out in Boston (33.3% Barrels/BBE, 58.3 Hard%), which also registered a significant velocity drop off (95.3 mph) from his first start (97.3 mph). In fact, it was the second lowest single game velocity average of his career and just a bit concerning because I do believe it was a cold night in Boston. Hopefully, his fastball (41.5%, -1.4 RV/100, 39 PB grade) comes back to life in accordance with his 51 grade cutter (23.3%) and 71 grade splitter (21%). Bradley has a 104 Stuff+ grade, but 4.57 Bot ERA through a pair of starts.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 0
B30: 4.04
DFS Notes: Our second domed spot includes a pair of offenses at 3.75 implied runs. Houck is one of my four top arms and in one of my two DK single entry lineups. I do have some concern that this same lineup just saw him, but not too much. Considering his improvement against LHBs, I have no interest in Tampa Bay bats. There are some strikeouts in this Boston projected lineup (four > 27% v RHP since last year), but Bradley is certainly too expensive on FD ($10K). He’s $2K less on DK, but may be one of the most volatile pitchers on the slate, considering the velocity drop last time out and how much the Rays like to limit starter workloads. That said, there really aren’t any Boston bats of interest here either.
Update 3:55 EST: Slightly pitcher friendly umpire (Carapazzo). Arozarena out, but Brandon Lowe is back. Five LHBs for TB. Boston adds a couple of lower order LHBs (Hamilton, McGuire), giving them six. Bradley has a reverse split. Some line movement towards the home team signifies little concern about Bradley's velo drop last time out in the cold weather.
Mariners @ Yankees
Logan Gilbert has failed to record seventh inning outs in just one of his last seven outings and that was two starts back in Minnesota (4 IP – 8 ER), following that up with the only other time he’s allowed more than two runs in that span (6.2 IP – 3 ER v KC). While Gilbert’s 19.9 K-BB% in 2021 and 2023 is just a bit better than his 19.3% mark so far this season, the contact profile has been better this year (7.6% Barrels/BBE, 37.5 Hard%) than either of those seasons. The result is a 3.11 xERA that nearly matches his 3.07 ERA and 3.05 dERA with additional estimators almost half a run higher (.226 BABIP). If you want more consistency, how about a 54 PB grade for each of the three pitches he’s thrown more than 15% of the time (four-seam, slider, cutter) and an even more impressive 122 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 128 (9.1 K-BB%, 15.9 HR/FB)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.41
Marcus Stroman shut out the Twins over six innings last time out, despite walking one more (three) than he struck out (two) and a 52.6% hard hit rate with a 47.4 GB%. With just an 8.1 K-BB%, Stroman has just a single estimator below four (3.78 dERA) and a pair of contact inclusive ones (xERA, FIP) that are closer to five. He still does not have a single PitchingBot grade reaching 50 with only his slurve or curve (49) above 42. Stuff+ coincides with a 94 grade and 92 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 98 (28.8 K%, 122 wRC+ & 23 K% L7 days)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.37
DFS Notes: Close to 70 degrees with a wind just below 10 mph blowing in from the right field corner should help pitching a bit here. I don’t know if any lineup has enough strikeouts to make me consider rostering Stroman for more than $8K (and it’s a few less for the Mariners recently). Neither of these teams get to four implied runs tonight, which is really a credit to how well Gilbert has pitched this year, but he’s just behind my top four tonight, along with one other pitcher. I’d expect him to be very low owned on a slate you probably don’t have to worry much about pitcher ownership on. This is a rare spot where I think Yankee bats are too expensive across the board. I’m not enamored by Seattle bats either, as Stroman keeps the ball on the ground.
Tigers @ Royals
Reese Olson is coming off eight shutout innings against the Marlins, allowing just three hits, striking out six of 26 without a walk and 12 of 20 batted balls on the ground. A 13.8 K-BB% is merely league average, but a 12.5 SwStr% with a league average 16.2 CStr% suggests a 1.72 K/SwStr should improve. Even if he doesn’t and his 2.09 ERA significantly regresses (.246 BABIP, no home runs), his worst estimator is still a pretty strong 3.78 SIERA because 55.4% of his contact has been on the ground. Pitch modeling is not so much of a fan though (4.81 Bot ERA, 91 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 96 (18.5 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.90
Michael Wacha authored his third and fourth quality starts of the season last two times out, most recently holding the Mariners to a single run over six innings (seven strikeouts, two walks) in Seattle. With a 12.7 K-BB%, Wacha’s thing has been contact management this year (6.0% Barrels/BBE, 33.8 Hard%), resulting in a 3.67 xERA and 3.83 FIP being his only estimators below four, though only a 4.79 dERA surpasses his 4.71 ERA. Pitch modeling continues to love the changeup (32.8%, 2.7 RV/100, 76 PB grade), but nothing else (89 Stuff+). However, the Tigers are a bottom five offense against changeups (-0.77 wCH/C), though they clocked him for a season high two home runs and three barrels last time out.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.17
DFS Notes: With temps around 80 and a light wind out to left, this might be the most hitter friendly spot on the board tonight, though this park is not power friendly at all. Never the less, both teams are at exactly four and a half runs here and I think there is justification for exposure to both sides of either matchup here. Olson is just $6.9K on DraftKings, but I like the matchup for Wacha ($6.6K) a bit more because the Royals don’t strike out much (only three projected > 21.5% v RHP since LY). Wacha is in one of my DK lineups. If not rostering pitching here, Bobby Witt (119 wRC+, .215 ISO v RHP since LY) is my top SS and Vinnie Pasquantino (108, .207) a nice 1B value, especially on FD, despite RHBs being below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Olson since last year. LHBs have a .258 wOBA, but .348 xwOBA and I’d venture a guess that has something to do with the tough power alley for LHBs in Detroit. On the other side, batters from either side are between a .296 and .322 wOBA and xwOBA against Wacha since last season. Where I don’t have him, I have some Greene (135, .196), Carpenter (136, .231) and Perez (149, .246) sprinkled in and actually all three in my lone FD single entry.
Update 5:05 EST: Urshela and Fermin in for Veirling and Velazquez does slightly lower strikeout rates for both lineups. I have Olson and Wacha about equal DK values now.
Orioles @ Cardinals
Dean Kremer has been very erratic in recent starts. He’s hit double digit strikeouts twice over his last four, walked at least three in three of his last five He also has three quality starts, six unearned runs and 17 barrels allowed in the season, which is a stunning 34.7% of his hard contact. Also, while Kremer has a healthy 25.3 K%, that comes with just a 9.2 SwStr%, but he may be able to keep most of those gains by sustaining a strong 19.2 CStr%, though you’d rather have the swings and misses. All contact neutral estimators are within half a run of his 3.72 ERA, but, as you would imagine, all those barrels register a 5.24 xERA. Kremer also has just an 89 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 104 (159 L7 days)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.36
Back to back stinkers for Sonny Gray in Milwaukee and LA (AL). It’s been 11 runs in just as many innings with four home runs on five barrels. The good news is that most of that damage took place in Milwaukee, while the Angels laid a BABIP beating on him (.438), while also striking out nine times and making hard contact just four times (23.5%). Gray has otherwise been magnificent this year (27.1 K-BB%, 34 Hard%) with a 3.36 xERA his only estimator above a 3.05 ERA. Pitch modeling absolutely adores Gray as well. The curveball (18.9%, 1.8 RV/100, 52 PB grade) his only pitch below a 56 grade with an overall 2.16 Bot ERA and 97 Stuff+, but 107 Pitching+ grade that only five qualified starters exceed.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.51
DFS Notes: It’s 80 degrees with a light wind out to left here. St Louis has improved to a neutral run environment (102 Run Factor Statcast 3yr) in recent seasons and I think the warmer temperatures in St Louis the last few seasons has something to do with that. That is the case here tonight with the Cardinals the lone offense between four and four and a half runs (4.14), but the Orioles on the bottom half of the board (3.86). Sonny Gray is one of my top four arms tonight and I think he might be the least rostered. I have him in both my FD single entry and one of my DK single entries, even pairing him with Houck. He appeared to pitch well last time out, despite the Angels putting some runs on the board and the O’s are down to a 101 wRC+ v RHP this year. Henderson (142 wRC+, .288 ISO v RHP since LY) is my only Baltimore bat of interest, but not a great DK value at least. On the other side, the Cardinals are on fire and I’m not a believer in Kremer (LHBs .337 wOBA, .371 xwOBA since last year) and with all those barrels, this might be my favorite stack of the night (left-handed Cardinals). I’m taking a shot with Nootbaar (132, .190) in all three lineups, Donovan (119, .161) in two and Burleson (100, .157) in one and don’t hate Gorman (116, .242) either.
Update 4:40 EST: Hays in for Mountcastle. Massive 4.6% gain on Cards. Just 3-6-1 with closing line value greater than 4% on the year though, losing three of last four.
Angels @ Astros
We mentioned Pablo Lopez’s 79 Z-Contact% being fifth best among qualifiers above (Dylan Cease is at 79.5%, by the wawy). Well, Reid Detmers is one of the four pitchers above him (78.9%). Stunning that he can do that and still be smashed for 27 runs (26 earned) over his last 27.2 innings. That’s because since his first two starts, he’s had a much closer to league average 84.3 Z-Contact% and it’s not only contact, but barrels (11 over his last five starts), In addition to that, his K-BB has dropped to 11.8% over that span (27.2 innings, five starts), but he did strike out seven of 25 Cardinals with just a pair of walks last time out and has been above a 15 SwStr% in three straight starts. What is the point I’m trying to get at here? His profile is complete chaos and the crazy thing is that he doesn’t have a single estimator reaching four (3.29 dERA – 3.86 FIP). Detmers has just 98 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades but also a Bot ERA below four (3.65). Let’s talk about the changeup a bit though. He throws it only 16.3% of the time, but it’s not only his best and only positive pitch by run value (1.2 RV/100), it’s also his top graded pitch (PB grades all his pitches higher than 50 incidentally) at 60 and also the pitch the Astros have had the most trouble with (-1.2 wCH/C is fourth worst in MLB).
Opp wRC+: 123 (16.8 K%)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.11
Back to back seven inning outings with a total of two runs against the Tigers and A’s doesn’t tell us too much about Framber Valdez’s state, though he did completely dominate a slumping Oakland team (13.4 SwStr% with a 50% hard hit rate, but just a single batted ball off the ground). The great news is that his velocity was back up after a drop off in Detroit. Exactly 66% of his contact on the ground, has helped hold opponents to just three barrels (3.0%), despite a 49.5% hard hit rate. The 13.7 K-BB% is just average, though a 3.56 xERA is still his only estimator more than half a run above Valdez’s 2.95 ERA. Pitch modeling throws a stink on all of it though. Let’s start with the good news here and that’s a 113 Stuff+ grade, but it drops down to a 100 Pitching+ one and a 4.22 Bot ERA is represented by an entire arsenal without a single 50 grade pitch. The sinker (51.6%) gets up to 49 and the curveball (27.4%) is at 46, but you’d certainly expect better from someone thought to be one of the better pitchers in the league.
Opp wRC+: 114 (20.5 K%, 123 L7 days)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.63
DFS Notes: Roof almost always closed in Houston makes it a power friendly, but run neutral environment. The Angels have the lowest team total on the board (3.28), but I group Valdez with Gilbert, slightly behind the top four. He’s just not missing enough bats to pay up for this year and the Angels haven’t been terrible recently. They’ve been one of the best offenses against LHP. With RHBs at a .285 wOBA and .318 xwOBA against Valdez since last year, I think Rengifo (167 wRC+, .214 ISO v LHP since LY), Ward (145, .209) and Adell (149, .370) are all viable here, if they can get any lift. There’s enough good pitching here that we don’t have to both with Detmers, even if you’re expecting heavy regression. The Astros (4.72) have the second highest run total, but, expecting regression for Detmers, I’m considering going underweight on high priced bats here. The exception might be the LHBs (.372 wOBA, .342 xwOBA v Detmers since last year). Both Tucker (162, .281) and Alvarez (148, .200) hammer LHP and are two of my top bats on the board. Altuve (127, .160) is also the top second baseman, while Pena (145, .168) is fine at SS too. Essentially, have some exposure to the top half of this lineup, but consider going under projected ownership for stacks. Abreu (35) two of last three and Garcia (33) two in a row, but the rest of both pens should be available.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Eight of Slade Cecconi’s 20 strikeouts came in a single start in Seattle. It’s been unfortunate that all five of his barrels have left the park and he’s only allowed hard contact at a 35% rate, resulting in a 2.97 xERA that’s his only estimator below a 5.27 ERA with others ranging from a 4.66 SIERA to a 5.3 FIP. Pitch modeling is more supportive of the contact profile though, giving his four-seam and changeup (72% of his pitches) both grades above 60 (PB) with a 100 Stuff+, but 105 Pitching+ grade. If you really want something to think about, a 0.09 wFA/C is the second worst mark against any pitch for this Dodger offense.
Opp wRC+: 123 (92 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.67
Yoshi Yama has allowed three home runs on four barrels over his last two starts and has now allowed three barrels in three separate starts (10% overall). We’ve talked in the past about how a fastball he’s not consistently elevated has been vulnerable, but it’s still a 53 grade pitch (PB) with a positive run value (1.3 RV/100). Let’s talk about the curveball (25.4%) a bit. It’s his second whiffiest (?) pitch at 32.9%, but at -0.6 RV/100, batters have a wOBA and xwOBA above .370 against it. Yet, PitchingBot believes it’s his best pitch (64 grade) in an arsenal that projects a 3.60 Bot ERA and 101 Stuff+ (106 Pitching+). The meat of the matter though, is that even with so many barrels, a 22.3 K-BB% registers a 3.44 xERA, which happens to be the worst of his estimators.
Opp wRC+: 89 (11.1 K-BB%, 8.6 HR/FB)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.33
DFS Notes: Coolest spot on the board with temps around 60, but near double digit wind out to right center and the Dodgers are the only team to reach five implied runs (5.2) with the Diamondbacks the second lowest team on the board (3.3). It looks like there might be a left-handed opener for Cecconi, which makes total sense, but Ohtani (206 wRC+, .375 ISO v RHP since LY) is still the only batter I have ranked ahead of Kyle Tucker tonight. He’s actually the only Dodger I’ve paid up for, but I have some Betts (165, .238) and Freeman (163, .217) affection too. RHBs have a .333 wOBA, .307 xwOBA against Yamamoto, but I’m not on any Arizona bats. Yamamoto is one of my top four arms, but I don’t currently have any lineups rostering him, due to Arizona’s tough plate discipline stats. Vesia 27 pitches Sunday, Thompson 31.
Update 6:10 EST: Rojas in for Lux. DMcCarthy moves up the order for Arizona.
Overall, I've moved from Wacha to Olson on one DK lineup, although Pasquantino would be my top first baseman overall after Ohtani. I now have Tucker (batting 2nd) almost exactly equal to Ohtani as the top overall bat and Mookie Betts just ahead of Witt as the top SS. I've also switched out Correa for Pena in one lineup. My outfields are mostly comprised of left-handed Cardinals or left-handed Tigers.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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