Things have been rather hectic since this afternoon and will continue to be the next couple of days between a minor family medical issue, my mother's 80th and a promise I made my niece, who lost her father just a couple of years ago. I'm not sure how much I'll get through either for today (Friday) or Monday and there will be no Saturday post. Hopeful to get at least through all pitcher notes (though some may be briefer than usual) and DFS notes, but I can't promise it. Some things take priority over others that are more hobby than job at this point.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Pirates @ Cubs
If you’re a baseball fan, and I’m assuming you are if you’re reading this, then you know who Paul Skenes is and what happened in his first start. He was fine, not great, showing flashes of what the hype is all about, but then all hell broke loose in the pen after he left, making his numbers look like crap. Suffice to say the outing produced a 112 Stuff+ grade with an immaculate 80 grade (PB) on the 23 sliders he threw. Projection systems are conservative at around 3.75.
Opp wRC+: 99 (121 Home, 120 L7 days)
DEF: -8
B30: 4.29
Kyle Hendricks still has a 57 grade sinker, according to PitchingBot, and 103 Stuff+ grade. He’s also managed contact fairly well (31.2 Hard%). The 8.0 K-BB% still results in a 4.45 xFIP being his best estimator, but the dude had allowed more home runs (nine) than barrels (eight).
Opp wRC+: 77
DEF: -10
B30: 3.98
Nationals @ Phillies
Jake Irvin has just a 19.6 K% and 47.1% hard hit rate that results in a 4.72 ERA that’s more than half a run above all other estimators, which are mostly within half a run of his 3.55 ERA. He’s walked just 4.3% and has some solid pitch modeling numbers (103 Pitching+, 3.16 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 114 (115 Home, 124 L7 days)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.72
Zack Wheeler is coming off his worst start of the season, walking more Marlins (three) than he struck out (two), allowing six runs in just four innings. His 6.3 SwStr% was his first time in single digits. With a 30 K% and 3.34 dERA his only estimator reaching three, the prudent thing to do is treat is as a blip unless it turns into a pattern.
Opp wRC+: 95 (87 Road, 54 L7 days)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.61
Mariners @ Orioles
Bryce Miller has home quality starts against Atlanta and Oakland, striking out a total of 19, but a stinker in Houston with just three strikeouts in between. While the new splitter has been a welcome addition (18.1%, 1.3 RV/100, 32.9 Whff%, 68 PB grade) that has helped him neutralize LHBs (.248 wOBA this year, .387 last year), he still has a contact problem (13.7% Barrels/BBE, 44.4% hard contact rate). He’s allowed four of his seven home runs and six barrels in just three road starts. Baltimore kills right-handed power, but this is a predominantly left-handed lineup against RHP. It’s only a small concern though because his xERA (worst estimator) only gets up to 3.88. Look for the .209 BABIP and 85.2 LOB% to regress.
Opp wRC+: 100 (114 Home) (incl. Thur)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.14
John Means struck out eight Reds through seven shutout innings (three hits) in his first start of the season with his 91.8 mph fastball matching previous seasons. He was down to 90.9 mph, as he got roughed up for four runs in less than five innings with just three strikeouts in Arizona last time out. Pitching Bot has not liked the slider he’s thrown so far (37 grade), while he gets an overall 83 Stuff+ grade, but 107 Pitching+ for his first two performances. He’s in a high strikeout upside spot here, but the Mariners do that a bit less against LHP and I’d want to be sure he was still healthy. He does have that right-handed power dampening park in his favor though.
Opp wRC+: 104 (26.3 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.26
DFS Notes: Full disclosure, I’m not playing any lineups tonight and don’t even have time to construct one, so I’m not sure how all of the below fits today. Five domes on a 13 game slate with Arizona already announcing a closure. Weather effects are insignificant overall with the coolest temperatures in the two California parks and Atlanta looking like the one potential rain spot. Yet, just three teams barely hit the five run mark with four more reaching four and a half with a quarter run gap to the rest of the board.
Upper 60s with a light wind across the field in Baltimore, I have enough questions about both pitchers that I'd hesitate to pay $9K for Miller in this spot. I would like a cheaper Means more if he didn’t have that velocity and performance dip in his last start. The Orioles also have the seventh best run total on the board (4.51) with Ryan O’Hearn (130 wRC+, .189 ISO v RHP since LY) looking like the best value, despite Miller’s improvement against LHBs with that splitter. This park hurts right-handed power enough that I’m not high on Seattle bats (3.99), but Mitch Garver (167, .168) costs just $3.1K on DK and I might have some Seattle exposure in multi entry in case Means is not in peak condition.
White Sox @ Yankees
Four walks, no strikeouts (1.9 SwStr%) first time out for Mike Clevinger (Rays). Five strikeouts (20.5 SwStr%), no walks against the Guardians. Hell if I know? The velocity is down a mph.
Opp wRC+: 127 (8.8 K-BB%, 15.4 HR/FB)
DEF: -12
B30: 4.45
Nestor Cortes has allowed either three or four runs in six of his nine starts this year, but a total of two over his other three, striking out nine in two of them. Sometimes he pops a big one (Tampa Bay and Detroit both at home), but overall, an 18.4 K-BB% results mostly in estimators in the upper threes, aside from a mind-boggling 2.70 xERA, despite a 40.6% hard hit rate, though just 6.5% Barrels/BBE. The 44.6 Z-O-Swing% is a warning sign (third worst on the day). The four-seam, cutter and sweeper (over 90% of pitches) all get low to mid-50s grades (PB) and the entire thing gets a 96 Stuff+, but 102 Pitching+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 60 (18.5 K-BB%, 6.4 HR/FB)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.53
DFS Notes: Nearly 70 degrees with a light wind in from right center in the Bronx tonight. I feel that Cortes is adequately priced (more so on DK), but do have him as one of my top five overall arms tonight in a great matchup. The White Sox (2.67) are the low team on the board by more than half a run. The Yankees have the fifth highest run total on the board (4.83) and you definitely want some exposure against a volatile pitcher. Judge (169 wRC+, .316 ISO v RHP since LY, 208 wRC+ L30 days) and Soto (167, .261, 157) are the obvious top bats, but what about Austin Wells (101, .205, 142) and Alex Verdugo (113, .184, 108) more affordably. Batters from either side are between a .307 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Clevinger since last year. Kopech had yesterday off after throwing 55 pitches the previous two days.
Rays @ Blue Jays
Odd outing for Tyler Alexander last time out. He went a season high seven innings (had gone exactly three in each of previous three outings), throwing 90 pitches (93 season high), despite allowing three home runs and six runs to the Yankees. This included six barrels (25%)! Ten of his 15 barrels (11.8%) have come in his first and last starts. The first one was against these Blue Jays. He’s also struck out more than four just once. Non-FIP estimators (nine home runs equals 60% of barrels) are all far lower than his 5.45 ERA (5.38 FIP), but only run as low as a 4.31 SIERA. The surprises are in the pitch modeling. PitchingBot grades a 51 changeup with every other pitch grading 59 or better (2.70 Bot ERA). Alexander has just a 90 Stuff+ grade, but 107 Pitching+ mark, which fits with his 6.9 BB%.
Opp wRC+: 107 (6.5 K-BB%, 8.1 HR/FB) (incl. Thur)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.99
Oh, this is easy. Let’s just copy and paste Tuesday’s blurb and note that this should be a better matchup than a predominantly left-handed Baltimore lineup would have been for him, although the Rays have been up to four LHBs this week.
“Chris Bassitt is still carrying a career high 10.6 BB%, which still results in all of his estimators below a 5.06 ERA, but none by a full run. The Orioles should be able to exploit his platoon issues (LHBs > .350 wOBA & xwOBA since last season).”
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 13.5
B30: 4.25
DFS Notes: Average Run Factor goes from 98 to 104 should the roof be open. The Rays are at 3.75 implied runs with the Blue Jays exactly a run higher, which is a bit of a surprise, though they have flashed more power against LHP. Turner, Schneider and Jansen all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .250 ISO against southpaws since last year. Springer and Kiner-Falefa area the only pair below a 110 wRC+ against LHP since last season, among those projected. Considering RHBs owning a .342 wOBA and .329 xwOBA against Alexander since last season, the entire right-handed portion of this lineup is probably fine. I’d also look at left-handed Rays. All four projected have at least a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year. I don’t fully trust Bassitt at this point and feel he’s adequately priced here too. In other words, fine, but not ideal. The Tampa Bay pen has been heavily worked this week.
Twins @ Guardians
Simeon Woods-Richardson has turned into a control pitcher (5.8 BB%) with fluctuating strikeouts (2-8-2 last three starts) and just an overall 7.9 SwStr%. A 46.8 Z-O-Swing% has led to a 45.3% hard contact rate. With just a pair of his seven barrels turning into home runs, non-FIP estimators sit in a tight 3.87 (SIERA) to 4.26 (dERA) range, all more than half a run above his 3.24 ERA and potentially rising further if the SwStr% stays so low. On the plus side, the slider (26.9%) is his only below average pitch via PitchingBot (39 grade), which includes a 70 grade changeup (25%) and 3.47 Bot ERA to go along with his 86 Stuff+, but 104 Pitching+. It’s all kind of “meh”, but has a chance to be better.
Opp wRC+: 96 (19 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.72
Triston McKenzie was at his third lowest average velocity ever (90.4 mph) for his last start and still threw the damn thing half the time and got away with it. Because it was the White Sox and the Tigers before that. I’m not buying it. He still has a 6.3 K-BB% with estimators ranging from a 4.30 xERA to a 5.13 xFIP and even though it’s been better over the last month, his pitch modeling numbers are still awful. The fastball (54.9%) is his highest graded pitch (40 PB) and guess who destroys fastballs? The Twins do (1.21 wFA/C is best in baseball by 0.49).
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 0
B30: 2.92
I’m not buying that McKenzie is good. I’m not even buying that he’s better than SWR and this is just an awful matchup for him. I’m not going to meddle with bullpens, but give me the Twins as F5 dogs all day long here. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
DFS Notes: A negative run environment (92 RF) with temps around 70 and almost no wind, I have no interest in either of these pitchers. The Guardians (4.11) don’t strike out enough. The Twins (3.89) smash fastballs. With Jose Miranda the only projected Twin below a .165 ISO against RHP since last season, I’m certainly at least one offing a few Twins in multi entry and might even have room for Julien (143 wRC+, .216 ISO v RHP since LY) in single entry. LHBs have a .328 wOBA, but .398 xwOBA against McKenzie since last year. Both Naylors and Ramirez are the only Cleveland regulars against RHP that reach a 100 wRC+ or .180 ISO against them since last year. It’s all pretty marginal on this side.
Mets @ Marlins
Christian Scott throws both a traditional slider (23.2%, 4.7 RV/100) and sweeper (20.5%, 4.5 RV/100). Pitching Bot just says slider 47 grade. I’m not sure if it’s combining both pitches or just going with the more traditional ones because the sweeper is an absolute beast and the regular slider on it’s own appears a better than average pitch too. He does have a 108 Stuff+ grade after two starts, striking out 14 of 50 Braves and Rays with a 16.8 SwStr% and just three walks. He’s allowed just a single barrel and 10 hard hit balls (30.3%). Scott has been efficient enough to pitch into the seventh inning on pitch counts in the low 90s in each start.
Opp wRC+: 85 (20.9 K%, 84 Home, 79 L7 days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.63
Jesus Luzardo struck out eight of 21 Phillies with just a single walk in his first game back from the IL. Was the injury responsible for his 10.5 BB% and 14.3% Barrels/BBE or was he just facing some beastly offenses before hitting the IL (Yankees, Braves)? Contact neutral estimators are just below four, inclusive ones like xERA closer to four and a half. Pitch modeling sees everything just about average, but I can’t tell whether we’ve been dealing with a healthy Luzardo for most of his starts.
Opp wRC+: 93 (18.6 K%)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 3.84
DFS Notes: Neither team reaches four implied runs here, even though Miami has proven to be a neutral run environment with the roof closed in recent years (102 RF). I think Luzardo is a solid value in the middle tier, but Christian Scott might be my favorite pitcher tonight and that’s not just a personal bias. He actually grades out best and would be my first choice in any type of lineup tonight. Five projected Marlins hit a 24+ K% against RHP since last year. This is just a very strong spot for a great pitching prospect. RHBs have a .319 wOBA and .320 xwOBA against Luzardo since last season and that’s just average, but J.D. Martinez (149 wRC+, .292 ISO v LHP since LY) is just too cheap and has a 131 wRC+ since joining the team. Tanner Scott had Thursday off after 39 pitches the previous two days. Diaz, Garrett and Diaz all threw more than 20 pitches on Thursday.
Padres @ Braves
All Matt Waldron needed was the Dodgers to author one of his best starts of the season (5.1 IP – 2 ER -1 BB – 6 K). Knuckleballs are tricky. Pitch modeling doesn’t even really bother with them. His 11.4 K-BB% isn’t terrible and all estimators are at least half a run below his 5.49 ERA (63.8 LOB%), but you never know what you’re going to get from Waldron. He has just one quality start, but has allowed two or fewer in four of eight starts.
Opp wRC+: 107 (incl. Thur)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.48
Max Fried has pitched 29 innings over his last four outings with just seven hits allowed and all four of his runs against the Dodgers. The Mets did barrel him twice last time out (both outs), but he’s still allowed just eight all season (two in four starts each), keeping the ball on the ground 62.9% of the time. He didn’t generate a single ground ball on Opening Day. Fried has a 16.8 K-BB% over these four starts (11% on the year). His 3.57 ERA on the season is within one-third of a run of all estimators (0.15 points for non-FIP ones), but we might expect all those to improve, considering more recent performance. Non-sinker pitches all grade 56 or better (PB) since April 23rd, though his Stuff+ (97) and Pitching+ (100) grades remain on par with his full season numbers.
Opp wRC+: 83 (9.4 K-BB%)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.59
DFS Notes: I don’t know how concerning the weather here is, but it’s probably enough to take me off Fried. It’s not that I don’t think he can succeed here (Padres 3.39 implied runs), but it’s a lineup with strong plate discipline against a pitcher who’s upside is in ground balls and great control more than strikeouts. The Braves are the top offense on the board (5.11). It would be a shame if their bats were at risk, particularly left-handed ones (.381 wOBA, .363 xwOBA against Waldron since last year).
Athletics @ Royals
Kyle Muller is not confirmed yet. All 10 of his appearances this year and eight of his last 10 last year came out of the bullpen. Expect his 14.9 K-BB% to play down in a starting role. Batters still have a .340+ wOBA and xwOBA since last year against Muller from either side of the plate.
Opp wRC+: 89 (20.5 K%, 6.9 BB%, 6.2 HR/FB) (incl. Thur)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.22
Cole Ragans allowed seven runs for the second time this season last time out. He’s only allowed even three in one other start. The problem is that it was against a depleted Angels lineup and he only struck out three. He still had an 11.8 SwStr% and has been in double digits in every single game. There’s nothing concerning in his overall season numbers (19.7 K-BB%, 5.9% Barrels/BBE, 34.8% hard contact rate) with all estimators more than half a run below his 4.22 ERA (.333 BABIP, 68.6 LOB%). There’s nothing at issue in his 113 Stuff+ grade or 3.22 Bot ERA either, but the slider (-8.3 RV/100) and cutter (-1.9 RV/100), which make up 24.6% of his arsenal, have both been problematic with wOBA marks above .370, though both grade as average pitches via PItchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 93 (80 Road, 68 L7 days)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 4.13
DFS Notes: The Royals have the third best run total on the board (5.02) with temps near 80 and little wind. Should it be Muller, we don’t know how long he’ll pitch, but every right-handed batter and Pasquantino (108 wRC+, .206 ISO against LHP since LY) would be in play against him. Combining low cost with high priced gets you to full stacks if you want. Nelson Velazquez (127, .299) has struggled (46 wRC+ L30 days), but is so cheap. Bobby Witt (121, .217) stands out as a top bat tonight. Although I like the slightly cheaper Scott slightly more, Ragans is one of my top arms tonight and a strong value as well. The A’s have the fourth lowest run total (3.48). Abraham Toro (181, .180) would be the only Oakland bat I’d consider.
Angels @ Rangers
This matchup has the potential to make people pull their hair out. Tyler Anderson has a 12.5 SwStr%, yet 17.9 K%, perhaps because he’s walking 9.5% of batters. He was barely at 90 mph last season and a mph below that this year after dropping down to 88.4 mph and exactly 89 in his last two starts. Anderson is a one trick pony at this point and that trick is a 62 grade changeup (PB) that’s his only pitch with a positive run value (2.4 RV/100), which leads to better performance against RHBs, though they still have a wOBA and xwOBA within five points of .330 against him since last year. You may be able to expect more strikeouts going forward, if the velocity thing doesn’t turn into an injury, but for now, the 2.92 ERA is a byproduct of a .223 BABIP and 82.3 LOB%. He doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator below four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 88 (6.4 BB%, 8.9 HR/FB) (inclu. Thur)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.85
Andrew Heaney struck out a season high eight of 22 Rockies at Coors last time out. Strikeouts are down (22.5%), but with a 12.0 SwStr%, so are walks (5.2% career best) and home runs (9.7 HR/FB) and barrels (8.2% lowest mark of any non-Covid shortened season since 2018). He’s successfully working the heaters up with sliders and changeups down, which can be illustrated by an 82 Stuff+ grade, but 100 Pitching+ and 3.82 Bot ERA. Can he sustain this though? There’s also the issue of some whacky estimators. Or really, just one. A 4.53 dERA is above his 4.39 ERA and additional estimators ranging from a 3.77 SIERA to a 4.21 xFIP.
Opp wRC+: 112 (20.2 K%, 125 wRC+ L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.35
DFS Notes: The Rangers are the second best offense on the board tonight (5.09), which is a bit striking because they haven’t hit LHP well and Anderson has his faults, but generally isn’t the type to get beat up. You can use LHBs against him though, which means Seager (117 wRC+, .195 ISO v LHP since LY) more than Lowe (84, .101), though I wouldn’t throw him out of stacks. Semien (129, .168) is a top second base bat tonight. I don’t hate or even dislike Heaney in an SP2 spot here ($6.6K). However, Rengifo, Ward, Adell, Pillar and Neto all exceed a 115 wRC+ and .185 ISO against southpaws since last season. All plus Calhoun and Schanuel are above a 100 wRC+ L30 days and LHBs have been better (> .340 wOBA and xwOBA) than RHBs against Heaney since last season.
Brewers @ Astros
Freddy Peralta has allowed 13 runs over his last 21 innings against marginal offenses (Pirates, Rays, Cubs, Cardinals) with a 14.1 K-BB% over this span that’s well below his 23.1% season rate, although his barrel (9.6%) and hard hit (25%) rates are down from his full season numbers. If we can tease out his pitch modeling numbers for just those starts, his fastball gets a 42 PB grade, as opposed to 53 for the season with a 4.44 Bot ERA (4.09 season). He still has a 110 Stuff+ grade (112), but 93 Pitching+ (102). The conclusion is fastball command? For the season, Peralta’s 3.85 xERA is his only estimator above a 3.63 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 110 (17.4 K%) (incl. Thur)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.09
Hunter Brown pitched below an opener last time out, striking out seven of 21 Tigers without a walk, bringing him up to an 11.4 K-BB% on the season (8.0% previously). That’s essentially the issue. He’s only allowed three barrels and the 41.7% hard contact rate is not great, but not .423 BABIP bad. With three more home runs than barrels, non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.78 dERA to a 4.36 xERA are far below his 7.79 ERA (or 5.06 FIP). Throwing a 54 grade fastball 43.2% of the time with a 104 Stuff+ grade overall, sounds like there’s some bad luck involved, but the secondaries could use some work with all but the slider grading below 45.
Opp wRC+: 121 (115 Road, 147 L7 days)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.44
DFS Notes: I have too many concerns about Peralta in a low upside, difficult spot that I think he’s overpriced for tonight and I certainly don’t trust Brown in just as tough a spot. The Brewers and Astros both have exactly four run totals. I wouldn’t actually advocate stacking against Peralta. The bats you want are probably too expensive for the spot anyway. RHBs have a .375 wOBA, but .317 xwOBA (LHBs .336, .326) against Brown since last year. Joey Ortiz (145 wRC+, .229 ISO v RHP since LY) is a nice value bat. I would have some Brewer stack exposure here. Ortiz, Bauers, Contreras and Yelich all exceed a 150 wRC+ L30 days.
Red Sox @ Cardinals
After missing nearly a month, Brayan Bello returned to strike out a single National on a season low 7.4 SwStr%. The 13.9 K-BB% over six starts is fine, but non-FIP estimators (all five barrels have left the park) ranging from a 3.46 xFIP to a 3.84 dERA exceed his 3.13 ERA (.230 BABIP). PitchingBot gives all his pitches a 50+ grade and the entire arsenal receives a 102 Stuff+ grade and 107 Pitching+. Slightly above average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 99 (122 L7 days) (incl. Thur)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.38
Five straight starts without more than two earned runs for Kyle Gibson with the five innings he pitched last time out the first time he’s gone fewer than six in that span. His 12.0 K-BB% is a bit better than his season 10.0% mark over that span, in which he has a perfectly average contact profile. Gibson does have an interesting 12.9 SwStr% over his last four starts, but also has four starts with three barrels allowed (each of first three starts). He doesn’t have a single season estimator within half a run of his 4.67 ERA (.248 BABIP), but he has actually been better recently and there are some metrics backing it up. Season pitch moding…yikes (5.08 Bot ERA, 91 Stuff+). Gibson has a 4.96 Bot ERA and 91 Stuff+ over his last four starts…hmm.
Opp wRC+: 98 (24.4 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.57
DFS Notes: Bello is probably a bit too expensive here as a decent pitcher in a marginal spot. Both teams here are at exactly four implied runs too. If Gibson is going to sustain that swinging strike rate, there should be enough strikeouts in this Boston lineup to make him playable as an SP2, but it’s not something I’m forcing my way into. That said, LHBs are still above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Wilyer Abreu (150 wRC+, .211 ISO v RHP since LY) and Devers (134, .245) are the attractive bats here. Bello does have a split too (LHBs .361, .326), so left-handed Cardinals, almost all with a 100+ wRC+ v RHP since last year, but below that mark overall for the last 30 days, are fine. Janson (30) two of last three.
Tigers @ Diamondbacks
With a 27.2 K-BB% and 32.2% hard contact rate, Tarik Skubal has a 2.02 ERA that matches his FIP (2.01) and xERA (2.12). Contact neutral estimators expect some regression, but even then only barely hit two and a half. Here are some other crazy numbers: 15.2 IFFB% - 78.1 Z-Contact% - 26.4 Z-O-Swing%. Skubal has allowed more than two earned runs only once this season, while every pitch he’s thrown more than five percent of the time is graded 55 or better via PitchingBot with 106 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 136 (17.7 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.84
Things haven’t been great from a results standpoint for Ryne Nelson. He has just a single quality start all season and only one other start with fewer than three runs and that’s because he left it after two shutout innings with an injury. The 16.4 K% and 47.3% hard hit rate combine for a 4.92 xERA that’s less than half a run below his 5.33 ERA, but with just a 5.2% walk rate, contact neutral estimators are just more than a run better than actual results and Nelson is a pitch modeling favorite. The worst pitch he throws more than five percent of the time is a 53 grade cutter and both models are in agreement on him (105 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+). Hey, those are the same grades as Skubal!
Opp wRC+: 92 (86 Road, 78 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.70
I’m not saying Nelson is comparable to Skubal, but it may be a bit closer than the nearly two run separation in their estimators. The Diamondbacks have been incredibly good against LHP and have the lineup to sustain something close to that, while the Tigers have been awful. Arizona also has one of the best defenses in the league and their bullpen estimators should improve with Sewald back.
DFS Notes: I don’t imagine I’ll be saying no to Skubal often this season and he’s still a top three arm on the board tonight, but probably the one I like least among the three in the toughest spot. This is a legit lineup against LHP, full of RHBs with power (five > .190 ISO v LHP since LY). That said, the D’Backs have a 3.76 team run total and I’m not jumping Skubal either. Nelson is just $6K in a strong spot. I stop short of advocating for him, but there should be enough strikeouts in this lineup if it’s a risk you want to take. The Tigers have a 4.24 team total and Riley Greene (135 wRC+, .201 ISO v RHP since LY) is the most attractive bat (LHBs > .360 wOBA and xwOBA v Nelson since last season).
Reds @ Dodgers
Frankie Montas is a tough eval this year. He had a pair of starts in the middle of April where his velocity dropped two mph and he hit the IL after allowing five runs in 2.2 innings with six walks and a strikeout. He’s returned throwing 95.9 mph and 95.5 mph and did struggle in San Francisco, but dominated Arizona. In fact, outside those two short starts with the injury involved, he’s thrown 27.1 innings allowing 13 runs (nine earned) with six walks and 23 strikeouts (116 BF). It’s not head of the rotation stuff, but it’s out of whack with estimators that are all above his 4.20 ERA. The interesting thing is the 101 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades, along with a PB grades above 50 on the three pitches he throws most often.
Opp wRC+: 127 (137 Home)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.82
I said I was dying on a hill against Paxton, so of course he pitches his best game of the season against the Padres without a single walk after giving them eight free passes last time out. His 10.5 SwStr% was his second best mark of the season, but he still allowed two more barrels (eight in his last four starts equals 44% of his hard contact over that span). He still has a -1.2 K-BB% with not a single non-FIP estimator below five and a half to go along with a 74 Stuff+ grade (89 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 90 (11.4 K-BB%)
DEF: 11
B30: 3.39
This is problematic because I have several things popping here and a pair of them are slightly contradictory. It’s the Reds +180, F5 o4.5 (-130) and the Dodgers o4.5 (-130) because I do have the Dodgers favored closer to -150 in a high scoring first half. There’s a massive gap in offense and defense, but even if I’m trusting Montas’s full season estimators, he’s still almost a run better than Paxton. I’ve decided the first and last cancel each other out and only to play the F5 over.
DFS Notes: Doesn’t go above 60 degrees with a light 4 mph breeze out to center. The Dodgers (4.92) just miss five runs with the Reds at just 3.58. Paxton costs more than $8K, which is just ridiculous. I have little interest in marginal Cincinnati bats, as strange as that sounds to say in this spot. The one many army is up to $6.1K on DK. LHBs are above .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Montas this year with RHBs below .300. The entire LAD lineup, aside from Lux, exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO v RHP since last year. The top three + Muncy are above 135 and .215. They’re also very expensive.
Rockies @ Giants
Ryan Felter has a 14.3 K-BB%, but 18 of his 40 strikeouts came in two games. He hasn’t exceeded four in any of his other starts, which includes his last four in a row. All seven of his barrels (5%) have also come in three starts, while he’s actually been a solid contact manager (3.23 xERA). This, despite a 44.1 Z-O-Swing%. With a .346 BABIP and 64.4 LOB%, his 5.30 ERA is one and one-third runs above all estimators. Pitch metrics see him as a perfectly average arm (4.00 Bot ERA, 100 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+), but his only above average pitch is a 56 grade slider (PB) that actually is his worst pitch and only negative one (more than 3.5% usage) by run value (-1.1 RV/100).
Opp wRC+: 97 (92 Home, 87 L7 days) (incl. Thur)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.21
Five walks for Kyle Harrison in two of his last three starts, a span over which 12 of his 17 walks this season have been issues (16.7 BB%, 2.8 K-BB%). The zone rate has dropped from 47.2% (first five starts) to 40.5% over this span. He still has a 13.4 K-BB% on the season with estimators ranging from a 3.87 FIP to a 4.38 dERA half a run to a run above his 3.42 ERA (80 LOB%). Pitch modeling sees Harrison as below average (4.43 Bot ERA, 91 Stuff+) with the fastball (64%, 50 PB grade) his top graded pitch.
Opp wRC+: 77 (83 Road)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.36
DFS Notes: The second lowest total on the board belongs to the Rockies (3.2). The small sample of Sean Bouchard (262, .458) is the only one in the COL projected lineup to exceed a 92 wRC+ against LHP since last season. The Rockies are so hot, they have a team 107 wRC+ L7 days. (Yes, that’s sarcasm.) All that said, a suddenly walk happy Kyle Harrison, who did have minor league control issues, is too expensive for my taste here. I’m not sure Feltner has the upside I thought he might earlier in the season, but he’s been a fine contact manager and faces a depleted lineup in a favorable park with temps below 60. If you really want to go cheap on your SP2, he’s just $5.5K. The Giants have just a 3.8 team total and I have no particular affinity for any of their bats here.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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