I'll be out of the house most of Thursday afternoon, but think I can get to DFS notes for five games first. It's actually a pretty interesting board with Tyler Glasnow sitting $1K more than Jared Jones. I wonder if it'll be possible to jam in both on DK. We'll find out.
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Yankees @ Twins
Clarke Schmidt completed six innings for the first time this year last time out and it was 6.2 shutout innings at the Trop. It’s beginning to look like a bit of a breakout for him with an 18.4 K-BB%, but if you’ve been paying attention to pitch modeling, PitchingBot has loved what he’s throwing since last season. In fact, a 40 grade sinker (23.9%) is his only below average pitch via PitchingBot to go along with a 113 Stuff+ grade. Despite a .330 BABIP, all of Schmidt’s estimators are more than half a run above a 2.95 ERA, due to an 84.3 LOB%, but only his xERA (4.21) reaches four. He still has some issues with LHBs (.368 wOBA, .350 xwOBA since last year) that the Twins might be able to exploit. The only two offenses he faced with a strong left-handed presence (BAL, CLE) compiled eight of the 15 walks he’s allowed.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 7
B30: 3.62
Joe Ryan is coming off one of his best outings of the season, working a season high seven innings in Toronto, going three full times through the lineup with seven strikeouts and now walks. He’s produced an outstanding 24.9 K-BB%, while slightly increasing his ground ball rate (35.4%) and decreasing his hard hit rate (35.7%) with a 1.3 mph increase in velocity. The barrel rate remains 8.5%, but whereas 84% of them left the park last year, a more realistic 55% have turned into home runs so far this season. The result is that Ryan has just one estimator above his 3.21 ERA or even above three (3.33 dERA). His worst graded pitch this year is the splitter (24.7%, 31.6 Whiff%, 57 grade), driving a 2.01 Bot ERA and while he has just a 94 Stuff+ grade, that increases to a 106 Pitching+ grade with superior command this season.
Opp wRC+: 126 (9.8 K-BB%, 15.8 HR/FB)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.76
Update 11:35 EST: Stanton and Jeffers out.
Mets @ Phillies
With what Jose Quintana is throwing (83 Stuff+), his command needs to be exceptional to have quality outings and that just hasn’t been happening much of late. With PitchingBot (4.69 ERA) grading only his curveball (20.7%, 52 grade) above 46, Quintana has allowed 18 runs over his last 20.2 IP and that includes eight innings of one run ball against the Cardinals. He’s already allowed almost as many barrels (10) as last year (12) and his 46% hard contact rate is a career high, while his 5.4 K-BB% is also a career low and the first time he’s been in single digits since his rookie season. All of Quintana’s estimators are above four and a half, including a 6.24 xERA that stretches far above his 5.44 ERA. Quintana doesn’t have a real split, but that’s because batters from either side are within four points of a .315 wOBA and two of a .350 xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 116 (114 Home)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.56
Taijuan Walker is down almost a mile and a half per hour, chucking 91 mph heaters at opponents through three starts, turning a 7.9 SwStr% and 93.6 Z-Contact% into a 19.5 K% with just four of 11 barrels leaving the park. That’s right, 20% of his contact has been barreled! As a result, a 4.43 SIERA is Walker’s only estimator below a 4.82 ERA, while PitchingBot doesn’t give him a single pitch grade above 42 to go along with a 5.42 BotERA and 88 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.5 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.52
The weather is supposed to be a bit warmer in Philly on Thursday and while I don’t want to deal with either of these bullpens, I’ll take the over all day long with these two pitchers matching up against a pair of capable offenses and marginal defense. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
DFS Notes: Cool temperatures, dipping into the high 50s in some spots, among the four outdoor parks on the slate with the worst effects likely in Boston. There is one offense above five implied runs tonight, one more above four and a half and only one more even above four, which will make things kind of interesting and difficult when you are very likely paying up for a pitcher tonight.
A bit below 70, but a double digit wind blowing in from right center in Philly puts a slight dampener on my F5 over, but the Phillies still have the third best run total on the board (4.24) with the Mets right in the middle at 3.76. No surprise, Brandon Nimmo (138 wRC+, .219 ISO v RHP since LY) is my favorite Mets bat. Since I’m paying up for pitching, I’m more interested in the latter half of the Philly lineup, due to affordability. Everyone in this projected lineup, except for Merrifield and Rojas, exceeds a 120 wRC+ and .180 ISO against southpaws since last season. That includes Sosa and Pache, very cheaply.
Rays @ Red Sox
A pair of converted relievers here, Zack Littell is a command and control guy. He’s walked multiple batters in three of his starts, but none in the other five for a 3.7% rate to go along with elite contact management so far (4.5% Barrels/BBE, 29.9 Hard%). And he also misses more than enough bats with a 12.3 SwStr% and 24.1 K%, which has been the biggest surprise in his game. Pitch modeling suggests he’s not doing it with pure stuff (84 Stuff+, but 100 Pitching+). His slider has been the best pitch by run value (34%, 3 RV/100), but has just a 26.9 Whiff%. The splitter (21.8%, -0.9 RV/100) has been the top graded pitch (65 PB) and gets the most whiffs (38.1% of swings). The whiff rate is up on both pitches this year though. Littell’s 3.02 ERA matches his 2.99 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.22
Cooper Criswell supposedly has the better stuff (104 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+) and similar 24.8 K%, but it’s not going to be sustainable with a 7.3 SwStr%. He’s only walked 5.0%, but the stuff shows up more in a 24.8 Z-O-Swing% and 3.49 xERA that’s only slightly above a 3.26 SIERA. One-third of his nine runs have been unearned and the 84.1 LOB% will regress, but he’s left himself some room below four for when that strikeout rate begins to drop. The 65 grade sinker hitting the arm-side edge and diving below the zone appears to be his strength, even if it only averages 89 mph. The Rays are bottom half of the league against sinkers (-0.32 wSI/C).
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -2
B30: 3.68
DFS Notes: Mid-50s with a 10 mph wind in from center field likely makes this park play much less hitter friendly than usual. Both teams sit middle of the board at 3.75 runs. With some strikeouts in a pair of average lineups against RHP, I’m fine with pitching here and think Littell might be a sneaky contrarian play here if you want a bit more offense. Considering Criswell’s large split (LHBs .350 wOBA, .375 xwOBA since LY), Josh Lowe (137 wRC+, .212 ISO v RHP since last season) is really the only Ray I’m interested in, though Richie Palacios (120, .174) is fine on FD too. Littell actually has a reverse split (RHBs .332, .316), which further limits my interest in Boston bats here.
Pirates @ Cubs
This is a rematch from last Friday in which Jared Jones faced a career high 27 batters in only 86 pitches, striking out just four, despite an 18.4 SwStr%. His 18.7 SwStr% on the season isn’t the most notable thing. It’s that he’s only been below 15% in a single start. Pitch modeling tells you that he should dominate the Cubs and rack up more strikeouts this time. Both of Jones’s key pitches (slider 35.8% and fastball 49.9%) grade well (59 and 68 respectively via PB) and not only do the Cubs struggle with sliders (-0.26 wSL/C), but they are the worst offense in the majors against fastballs (-1.45 wFA/C) by a large margin (-1.14 is second). Jones has the best Stuff+ (135) and Pitching+ (115) grades in the league. Jones might allow too much hard contact (10.3% Barrels/BBE, 43.6% hard hit rate) if he didn’t have a 27 K-BB%. Estimators ranging from a 2.61 SIERA to a 3.47 FIP (eight home runs on 12 barrels) aren’t too far above his 2.68 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -7
B30: 4.31
Justin Steele allowed two barrels (13.3%), three home runs and a 60% hard hit rate against Pittsburgh and has just a 6.3 SwStr% in two games back, resulting in a 5.3 K-BB%. He looked much better in his first game before being hurt and still has strong pitch grades, including a 67 grade heater (67.9%) and 75 grade slider (27.8%), despite the latter’s mere 15.2 Whiff% and .382 xwOBA. The entire package gets a 109 Pitching+. Maybe we shouldn’t expect him to repeat last year’s success, but all non-FIP estimators are about half a run below a 4.73 ERA and likely to improve, according to pitch metrics.
Opp wRC+: 109 (9.9 BB%, 15.5 HR/FB)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.06
I’d rather their be an F5 line so I don’t have to deal with bullpens, but am willing to play the Pirates at +120 before it goes away. Even if Steele were pitching better, Jones has been the best pitcher in the league and the Pirates are actually hitting LHP, though Steele is part of the reason why. They also have the better bad defense when their right-handed lineup is on the field.
DFS Notes: Certainly not the worst Wrigely weather we’ve seen, but slightly pitcher friendly with temps in the mid-60s and a light breeze (5 mph) out to left. Both teams are middle of the board at 3.6 (Pirates) and 3.9 (Cubs) implied runs. Jared Jones is my top value arm tonight. I have him pretty close to Glasnow overall. My only real concern is workload (and a bit that the Cubs just saw him). The fastball should dominate though. I think the price tag ($7.3K on DK) is a good enough reason to bet on Steele to rebound. He’s easily my top choice beyond the arms costing more than $8K. I have little interest in Cubs bats, but if you want to go super contrarian, I’ll mention that Jones does have a slight reverse split (RHBs .282, .324) and Suzuki, who homered last night, has hit RHP well (129 wRC+, .210 ISO since LY). Andrew McCutchen (120 wRC+, .156 ISO v LHP since LY) is too cheap on FD ($2.8K), but Steele has a reverse split too (RHBs .285, .288).
Athletics @ Astros
I keep thinking Joey Estes is left-handed because the name Estes makes me think of Shawn Estes, a LHP, who rose to fame with the Giants, but briefly pitched for the Mets. The thing is, he was on the mound the first time Roger Clemens had to make a plate appearance against the Mets after throwing the bat at Piazza. The guy wasn’t even on the team then, but all this fell on him and he failed massively, throwing a pitch well behind his back. Anyway, this means nothing, but I have a little extra time to BS with only six games.
According to Fangraphs, Joey Estes is a 40 Future Value prospect with a plus fastball and potentially strong command amid marginal other offerings…fifth starter stuff. He has a 13 K-BB% over 61 innings at AAA last year and this season combined. Projection systems have him about a quarter of a run below five before and after striking out five of 17 Mariners with a 14.8 SwStr%, no walks, two hits and a home run, but three barrels and a 58.3% hard contact rate in his first start of the season. Pitch modeling thinks the arsenal was pretty marginal, which isn’t the worst thing. We’ve talked about plenty of pitchers they’ve liked less.
Opp wRC+: 108 (17.3 K%)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.21
Cristian Javier walked four of the 13 Tigers he faced, while three of the other nine barreled him and another two reached a 95 mph EV. He didn’t strike out anyone. I would say it ruined his ratios, but he had just a 7.4 K-BB% in four starts before hitting the IL. Estes average projection is Javier’s best estimator, a 4.75 xERA, The 91.3 mph he averaged against those 13 Tigers was his worst game average velocity on record too. Pitch modeling thinks he still has something in the tank ((112 Stuff+, 62 grade changeup PB), but with just a 96 Pitching+ grade and 4.70 Bot ERA and none of his other pitches reaching a 45 PB grade.
Opp wRC+: 102 (26.1 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.48
Estes could hit his projections and still be better than Javier has been through five games. Then there’s also the possibility that Javier still is not right. We don’t have enough to say either arm is going to be these things going forward, but it leads me to split a unit on the A’s (+172) and over (4.5 -122) F5 each.
DFS Notes: Aside from cheap Phillies, this neutral, protected environment is where I’m grabbing most of my bats from. You could surely bet on Javier to rebound for $7.8K, but I think Steele to be closer and the better, cheaper choice. The A’s have a 3.65 team total that’s third from the bottom, but still pretty close to middle of the board totals barely higher. You want a stunner? Soderstrum (small sample) and Brown are the only two projected A’s below a 115 wRC+ against RHP since last year. Brown and Gelof are the only ones below a 110 wRC+ L30 days. You’ve read Abraham Toro’s name here a lot and I think he’s the top second base value again (128 wRC+, .169 ISO v RHP since LY, 134 wRC+ L30 days) and my catcher is coming out of this lineup as well. Rooker (138, .260, 207) and Bleday (115, .174, 141) are cheap as well. On the other side, cheap A’s and Phillies get me to a Houston stack, even with expensive arms. The Astros top the board at 5.35 implied runs. Tucker (141, .233, 215) and Alvarez (160, .290, 84) are top bats. Singleton (58, .095, 100) is my first base choice. Estes has faced just 34 LHBs since last season, but they’ve smoked him (.445, .426). Therefore, I like Luperfido (107, .038, 111) as another super cheap OF bat. Everyone outside Dubon seems like at least a solid value here.
Reds @ Dodgers
Rumors are either Nick Martinez or a bullpen game or possibly a little bit of both. He’s faced five batters (21 pitches) since the 5/9. Martinez has strong pitch modeling numbers, including 103 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ grades with a 64 grade changeup (20.6%) and 67 grade cutter (22.4%). He’s walked 3.4%, while allowing just 3.6% Barrels/BBE (29.7% hard contact rate). Martinez has also only struck out 16.9%, but with a 10.9 SwStr%. The thing is though, his stuff plays up out of the bullpen, where he’s thrown 12.1 innings this year, and down in the starting role (21 IP). Throw out the FIP with a 3.8 HR/FB pitching in Cincinnati, but what to make of other estimators ranging from a 3.69 xERA to a 4.93 dERA? Even taking them at face value, the Dodgers should be a massive favorite whenever we get a line.
Opp wRC+: 128 (137 Home)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.82
Tyler has pitched at least seven innings with double digit strikeouts in four of his last six starts. He’s already halfway to his career high in innings pitched (120). Aside from a 117 Stuff+ grade, the interesting thing is that his fastball (54.6%, 2.1 RV/100) is the only strongly above average grade PitchingBot hands out (64) to anything in his arsenal. All estimators are within one-third of a run of Glasnow’s 2.53 ERA with a 26.7 K-BB%. Yes, even his dERA is under three.
Opp wRC+: 84 (26.7 K%)
DEF: 11
B30: 3.38
DFS Notes: Suter appears to be the opener here. I still expect to see a lot of Martinez and will make my decisions accordingly. It’s about 60 degrees here with very little wind. The Reds are the low team at 2.54 and Glasnow is the top pitcher on the board, not very far ahead of Jones and about $1K more expensive. The Dodgers have a 4.96 team total that’s nearly a half run behind the Astros, but more than half a run above any other team. The problem, aside from who they’re going to be facing for how long, is cost. Shohei Ohtani (210 w RC+, .279 ISO v RHP since LY, 230 wRC+ L30 days) is still a top bat, but will be facing a lefty (Suter) for at least one PA. Martinez has a normal standard split (LHBs .332 wOBA, RHBs .279 since LY), but virtually none via Statcast (.312, .304). I think Betts (166, .238, 170) and Freeman (164, .219, 160) are the only other bats worth paying up for here and the latter more so on FD.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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