Tuesday was a great night if you're into closing line value. If actual results are more your thing, then at least the daily fantasy recommendations played well, especially if you came back for late updates like the one mentioning the open roof in Texas in a game that turned in 11 runs.
As for Wednesday, it's only half way there. There's a lot of work to do in the morning/afternoon and we're still waiting on some pitcher confirmation, so it might run a bit later than usual.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open @ mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Toronto hasn’t confirmed a pitcher for tomorrow with rumors they may skip over Bassitt. He was covered yesterday and if it’s Yusei Kikuchi, he’s gone at least six innings in six straight starts, has a FIP (2.59) and xERA (2.79) matching 2.64 ERA without a single estimator reaching four and a half. His pitch grades (66 fastball, 70 curve) from PB are incredible, resulting in a 2.64 Bot ERA, 110 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 138
DEF: 14.5
B30: 4.14
Kyle Bradish has struck out 14 of 43 batters with a 54.5 GB% and 18.2% hard contact rate through two starts (106 Stuff+). However, projections actually slightly rose for an ERA/FIP combo about a quarter run below four.
Opp wRC+: 92 (20.6 K%)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.88
Update 11:35 EST: It is Kikuchi. Springer back. Westburg bats leadoff.
Marlins @ Tigers
Trevor Rogers is down to a 17.2 K% with a 47.7% hard contact rate with estimators ranging from a 4.29 xFIP to a 5.35 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: -14.5
B30: 3.97
Casey Mize’s 3.58 ERA matches his 3.59 FIP, while his xFIP (3.98), dERA (3.99) and xERA (3.99) all match each other with only his SIERA (4.19) above four. This, despite a 16 K%, though pitch models really like what he’s been throwing (112 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: -1
B30: 4.02
Update 11:45 EST: Around 70 degrees w/ 10 mph wind out to right center, but slightly pitcher friendly umpire. Carpenter in for Greene. Marlins 72/87/82 wRC+ Rd/v RHP/L7 days...came close to playing their team under.
Pirates @ Brewers
Martin Perez has allowed at least three runs in fewer than six innings in four of his last five starts. With just a 7.9 SwStr%, his strikeout rate is down to 18.6% with a 46.9% hard contact rate that pushes his xERA above five. He’s been fortunate that just three of his 11 barrels (8.4%) have left the yard, but all non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.60 ERA. He gets non absolution from pitch modeling either (78 Stuff+ grade), including a 45 grade cutter and 42 grade sinker from PitchingBot, two pitches the Brewers have smashed early on (0.68 wFC/C & 0.4 wSI/C).
Opp wRC+: 90 (117 Home, 133 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.36
Robert Gasser struck out four of 20 Cardinals over four shutout innings with two hits and no walks in his major league debut. Not only did he have a 12.7 SwStr%, but he only allowed a single hard hit ball. The 45 Future Value grade 25 year-old has a 60 FV grade on his slider, cutter and command (Fangraphs) and has increased his strikeout rate at AAA in each stint (26.1%, 28%, 33%), though that last number is just over 12 innings. The low arm slot is expected to make the stuff play up, but it’s also a concern that he’ll be an extreme fly ball pitcher that could struggle against RHBs. Projection systems have him around four and one-third runs after his first start.
Opp wRC+: 111
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.21
I don’t see any reason why the Brewers shouldn’t rough up Perez, the poor defense behind him and the overworked bullpen that follows. Playing over 4.5 (+112). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
Update 12:45 EST: Roof open generally increases the run factor from 94 to 98 on average, but at just 65 degrees, maybe not so much. Hoskins remains out, Yelich out for Brewers. No movement on their run total. Pittsburgh seems uninterested in producing a lineup less than a half hour before first pitch, so maybe...everybody out?
Nationals @ White Sox
These teams will be playing virtually the entirety of their three game series in a 24-hour span. Who knows how bodies will respond to this. The White Sox could even make Patrick Corbin (6.6 K-BB%, 48.3 Hard%, 5.91 ERA, 5.97 xERA, 81 Stuff+) look good.
Opp wRC+: 52 (22.6 K-BB%, 6.2 HR/FB)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.71
Garrett Crochet struck out 11 of 23 Guardians last time out and is up to a 29.4 K-BB% on the season with just 5.4% Barrels/BBE. He doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator reaching three.
Opp wRC+: 81
DEF: -12
B30: 4.58
Update 1:20 EST: Sixty degrees with double digit wind blowing at the right field pole. Abrams sits against a tough lefty...with a slight reverse split. No LHBs in WAS lineup. Line has increased enough that I should be considering WAS again here, but I can't play Corbin in this spot. Although, negative closing line value is what we should be attacking, considering the terrible results when the line actually moves in my favor.
Reds @ Diamondbacks
HEY HEY HEY…It’s Pfaadt Abbott!
While Andrew Abbott has only allowed more than two earned runs in one start this year (four in Texas), that’s more a byproduct of a .258 BABIP and 85.8 LOB%, as he’s struck out just 20.7% of batters faced on an even less impressive 8.0 SwStr% with a 43.7 Z-O-Swing% that’s bottom quarter of the board today. He does have a 2.90 xERA with just a 32% hard contact rate, but a 4.29 SIERA is Abbott’s only other estimator within a run of his 3.35 ERA. Pitch modeling validates the concerns with a 93 Stuff+ grade (96 Pitching+) and 4.28 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 142 (17.5 K%, 115 Home & L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.89
Brandon Pfaadt didn’t strike out a single one of the 25 Orioles he faced last time out with a 4.5 SwStr% that was the first time he was below 8%. Yet, he still has a 17.1 K-BB% and has induced more infield flies (10) than barrels (8). Estimators ranging from a 3.37 FIP to a 4.13 dERA are well below his 4.60 ERA, due to a 60.8% strand rate, which should self-correct. Here, pitch modeling confirms our enthusiasm with a 104 Stuff+ grade (106 Pitching+) and 2.71 Bot ERA, which includes a 64 grade fastball (34.4%) and 66 grade sweeper (29%).
Opp wRC+: 82 (27.1 K%)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.72
When you take the averages, Pfaadt’s estimators are around two-thirds of a run better than Abbott’s even with an ERA that’s a run and a quarter worse. Then look at the massive offensive and defensive edges the Diamondbacks should have here and ARI F5 (-142) is a game I fully expect to be punished by in the afternoon.
Update 2:50 EST: Roof closed. Carroll out. Grichuk bats second. Elly and Stephenson out. Takes away a LHB against Pfaadt's sizeable split. Gain 2.56% on ARI F5. I'm sacred.
Rockies @ Padres
It’s the Gomber King!
I know, not as good as Pfaadt Abbott.
Austin Gomber has been far from a king this year, with a 16.1 K% and 10.6% Barrels/BBE. A 4.19 dERA is his only estimator within a run of his 3.43 ERA (.248 BABIP, 84.8 LOB%), in addition to a 76 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 87 (9.2 K-BB%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.17
So Michael King has pitched seven innings of two hit ball with double digit strikeouts against the Brewers and Dodgers, but stunk against almost everyone else? Not entirely, but that’s the gist of it. With 10 of 12 barrels leaving the park, his 3.67 ERA is now pretty much in line with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.90 xFIP to a 4.27 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 79 (26.7 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.57
Update 3:20 EST: Arraez and Diaz out, both replaced by someone who bats from the same side.
Royals @ Mariners
Alec Marsh has allowed just a single run over his last 15.1 innings, but I don’t know how with his throw it down the middle and pray approach. Maybe it’s because just two of seven barrels have left the park. His best non-FIP estimator is a 4.21 xFIP.
Opp wRC+: 97 (29 K%)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 4.33
Bryan Woo struck out just three of 15 A’s, but only allowed a single hit and walk in his season debut. Pitch modeling liked what it saw (113 Stuff+). Projections are just below four. It’ll be interesting if he can do something to fix his leak against LHBs (.386 wOBA, .336 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 95 (18.4 K%)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.25
Update 3:30 EST: Garcia out, Frazier bats leadoff. Polanco and Garver still out. Pitcher friendly umpire (Wolf). I've got the under (8 -112).
Mets @ Phillies
It sounds like the Mets are calling up Joey Lucchesi here and I hope that doesn’t mean Christian Scott is being pushed back to London on Saturday. Lucchesi has a career 15.6 K-BB%, but it’s not that simple and been a lot of up and down in the numbers. In seven AAA starts, he’s down to 7.6%, but has complained about the automatic zone being a reason for his double digit walk rate in the minors the last two seasons. That still doesn’t explain the 17.8 K%. Projection systems have him at about four and one-third runs per nine.
Opp wRC+: 115 (113 Home, 127 L7 days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.41
Ranger Suarez has seven straight quality starts, averaging seven innings per start over that span. With a 24 K-BB%, 57.7 GB% and 28.2% hard contact rate, he doesn’t have a single estimator reaching three, despite an 84 Stuff+ grade. Command is where it’s been at (103 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 93 (18.9 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.65
Update 3:45 EST: Pitching weather, 60 degrees w/ double digit wind in from right center. Vientos in for Baty, Marte dropped to sixth. Extra RHB for Mets. Schwarber, Realmuto back. Stott also in, gives Phils extra LHB. Both pitchers have shown a substantial standard split.
Rays @ Red Sox
Taj Bradley looked great in his first outing of the season, striking out seven of 24 Yankees and receving a 118 Stuff+ grade. However, he had just an 8.6 SwStr% and survived a pair of barrels along with a 46.7% hard contact rate. Bradley had a 19.6 K-BB% over 104.2 innings last year and struck out 15 of 38 AAA batters with three walks in rehab starts this year.
Opp wRC+: 97 (incl. Tues)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.22
Tanner Houck has failed to produce a quality start in just one outing. Improved command, along with and increased splitter usage have combined to drop his wOBA against LHBs over 100 points since last year (.245 - .366). While just one of his six barrels has left the park, he’s only allowed six (4.1%) with eight walks, producing a 20.1 K-BB%. The sinker (55), splitter (55) and slider (67) all grade strongly (PB) with both pitch models in agreement on his arsenal (109 Stuff+ & 108 Pitching+). The Rays have also been below average against all three of those pitches.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -2
B30: 3.68
DFS Notes: On a seven game slate with five outdoor games, conditions don’t appear to be too drastic anywhere with temperatures mostly in the 60s and barely double digit winds in some spots and also a change of rain in a couple of spots, though more delay than PPD potential. A pair of teams reach five implied runs, but the interesting thing is there is just a single team (Rangers) between 4.28 and 5.21 and the Rangers could hit five if they open the roof again. That concentrates offense in three distinct spots for the most part and it really shouldn’t be too hard to attack those spots with a lack of high priced pitching. I’m finding lineups difficult to make for the most part and I’m hoping some unexpected lineup news will help things fit a bit later on.
In the 60s with a light wind out to left in Boston. The Red Sox at 4.23 implied runs are middle of the board with the Rays at 3.77 on the bottom half. Despite the potential to be the top run scoring environment on the slate, I’m probably more comfortable with Tanner Houck than any other pitcher on the slate. I have him in both my single entry lineups on DK and FD, despite his high cost on the latter. If you’re regressing his newfound success against LHBs, then Josh Lowe (139 wRC+, .214 ISO v RHP since LY) and Richie Palacios (118, .176) on FD ($2.7K) are in play for you. The good news is that even if you are regressing his performance against lefties, this lineup is loaded with RHBs. Bradley is far too expensive on FD ($10.3K), but does have the stuff to pop for $8K on DK. I would have some exposure in multi entry. However, RHBs have a .387 wOBA and .359 xwOBA against him since last year with LHBs just below .300. I’d still likely favor the LHBs of Duran (117, .192) Devers (130, .226) and Abreu (155, .204) if playing Red Sox though. The latter is pretty reasonably priced on either site. Both of these bullpens have been heavily worked over the last week. I'm unsure who would be available for how long.
Update 4:45 EST: Pitcher friendly umpire (Cuzzi). Hamilton adds a LHB for the Red Sox to make it five against Bradley's reverse split (yup). Rays find a way to jam in four LHBs, though Houck has neutralized his former split. Houck at least 25 BF six straight starts, Only two in TBR lineup below a 22.5 K% against RHP since last year. Playing Houck o5.5 Ks (+120).
Cubs @ Braves
Javier Assad’s 1.70 ERA is the product of a .244 BABIP, 85.6 LOB% and just two home runs (4.0 HR/FB) on nine barrels. With the wind blowing in at Wrigley throughout April, he’s only pitched in the most pitcher friendly environments so far. That said, his 3.17 xERA matches his 316 FIP with contact neutral estimators about a run higher (4.22 SIERA & xFIP). Pitch modeling is much more pessimistic with just a 90 Stuff+ grade and PitchingBot grading every offering below average.
Opp wRC+: 107 (120 Home, 118 L7 days) (incl. Tues)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.06
Charlie Morton has thrown four straight quality starts (26 IP – 97 – 5 ER – 2 HR – 6 BB – 22 K). The velocity is down a mph with the patented curveball (41.1%) dropping from a 42% whiff rate to 27.8%. PitchingBot still gives the pitch a 58 grade, but the four-seam (33.3%) just a 41 on the scale with a 91 Stuff+ mark overall. Estimators run a tight range from a 3.54 xERA to a 3.77 dERA, about half a run above his 3.14 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 96 (87 Road, 86 L7 days)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.53
DFS Notes: In the 70s with a double digit wind out to left with a small risk of rain makes this another strong hitting environment, though the Cubs are at just 3.79 implied runs. The Braves are barely second on the board at 5.21 and I’m all for attacking Assad with every top half of the order Atlanta bat you can afford here. While Assad has allowed a wOBA below .300 to batters from either side of the plate, Statcast pushes that up 20 to 40 points to .303 for RHBs and .334 for LHBs. Matt Olson (164 wRC+, .317 ISO v RHP since LY) is one of my top FD values again. Maybe THE top FD value. I have only Acuna (162, .230) ranked better overall in this lineup. Marcell Ozuna (143, .272) is more affordable on DraftKings. I think Morton is overvalued on FD ($10.7K), though viable, even if not my favorite arm, on DK ($8.4K). RHBs have a .298 wOBA, but .340 xwOBA against him since last year. Suzuki (126, .202) would be my favorite Cubs bat, though he has just an 11 wRC+ since returning.
Update 5 EST: Slightly hitter friendly umpire, but...Hoerner & Happ out for the Cubs. Acuna joins Riley on the bench for the Braves. Harris bats leadoff and is now one of my top values on the board in the OF and as strong a value on FD overall as Olson.
Yankees @ Twins
Marcus Stroman hasn’t completed six innings since his second start and has allowed either three or four runs in four of those six starts. The issues start with an 11.8 BB% and 93.2 Z-Contact%, but at least he’s still generating a lot of weak contact (34.1 Hard%) on the ground (55.7%). Having seven of his 10 barrels leave the park is also a bit unfortunate, so taking his FIP out of the equation, estimators from a 3.68 dERA to a 4.72 xERA are still mostly a bit above his 3.80 ERA (80.1 LOB%). The pitch modeling is where it all really falls apart though. Aside from a slurve he throws 11% of the time, Stroman doesn’t have another offering that exceeds a 42 PitchingBot grade (5.01 Bot ERA) and just a 94 Stuff+ (93 Pitching+) grade.
Opp wRC+: 105 (109 Home, 122 L7 days)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.59
Pablo Lopez has struck out 26 of his last 68 batters with just 13 hits and two walks over 17.1 innings, making it surprising that six have found a way to cross the plate in that span. He’s up to a 27 K-BB% (77.4 Z-Contact%) and 6.4% Barrels/BBE on the season with all estimators at least three quarters of a run below his 3.89 ERA, due to a 67.4 LOB%. Individual pitch metrics aren’t as shiny as last year, but every pitch he’s thrown more than 10% of the time gets an above average PB grade (3.01 Bot ERA) with just a 99 Stuff+ grade, but 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 125 (8.8 K-BB%, 16 HR/FB)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.85
I perceive a large difference between these two pitchers even though they have the same ERAs. Estimators are more than a run and a half apart and pitch modeling hates Stroman. I think it’s more than enough to make up for smaller Yankee offensive and defensive edges. (MIN -128 F5)
DFS Notes: This is the game with the most weather risk, though not likely entirely prohibitive. Temps around 70 with a double digit wind in from right. I have Lopez graded with Valdez as the second or third best pitcher son the board behind Houck, due to the matchup. Soto (170 wRC+, .265 ISO v RHP since LY) is fine here in a contrarian way (LHBs .317 wOBA, .281 xwOBA against Lopez since LY), but this is not a pitcher I feel comfortable attacking. The Yankees have just a 3.76 team run total with the Twins at 4.24. LHBs have a .297 wOBA, .335 xwOBA against Stroman since last year. I like attacking him with Julien (145, .218), Larnach (120, .203) and Kepler (130, .229), though I’m not nuts about the environment. With the high walk rate and Z-Contact%, they could bunch together some damage.
Update 5:10 EST: Only minor change here is Trevino in for Wells gives Lopez just 4 LHBs to face. Also a massive 4.18% gain on MIN F5. Already pushed ARI with the strong closing line value in a game they led with two outs and two strikes w/ nobody on in the fifth. Can only assume the line value continues to be murder here.
Guardians @ Rangers
His velocity creeping back up to the 92 mph range over his last two starts, Carlos Carrasco has completed six innings (and even seven last time out) for the first two times this year. He’s allowed all seven of his home runs on eight barrels (10.7%) over his last four starts, in which his 10.3 K-BB% is 2.4 points above his season mark. He hasn’t been good without a single estimator below four and a half, including a 5.05 Bot ERA (96 Stuff+ & Pitching+) and doesn’t have a single pitch reaching an average 50 PitchingBot grade, but it hasn’t been as big a disaster as I anticipated and even better than last season, which is an admittedly very low bar (6.7 K-BB%).
Opp wRC+: 109 (19.9 K%) (incl. Tues)
DEF: 0
B30: 2.73
Jon Gray’s approach has turned into…here’s a slider, here’s another slider and here’s another slider. Somehow, it’s worked. He has a 19.3 K-BB% (25% over his last six starts). He has three straight quality starts with four runs over 21 innings. His 2.36 ERA matches his 2.35 FIP with just two of 10 barrels leaving the yard, but none of his estimators reach four. He also has an 82 Stuff+ grade, a 46 slider grade (PB) and 41 four-seam grade. Those two pitches make up 87.2% of what he’s thrown this year. He’s also faced a ton of bad offenses, aside from Atlanta, with a substantial split (LHBs .325 wOBA, .343 xwOBA since last year) and I think tonight might be the night it comes back to bite him. The Guardians can regularly send up to eight LHBs out there and are less likely to chase and whiff on those sliders.
Opp wRC+: 98 (18.8 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.36
DFS Notes: Should the roof be open again, this could be the top run environment on the slate and I would be attacking both pitchers. As is, I don’t really want to use Gray against LHBs, though I understand that he is fairly cheap on DK ($7.5K). With his numbers quoted above against lefties, I think the Cleveland lineup already has value with the roof closed on FanDuel. I’m only playing a couple of singe entries tonight, but would definitely go overweight on Cleveland in mult entry, despite their 3.75 run total. With the Rangers at 4.75 implied runs and batters from either side above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Carrasco since last season, all aboard the Texas train. Nathaniel Lowe (135 wRC+, .173 ISO v RHP since LY) is my favorite 1B value behind Olson. Seager (164, .278) is the top SS on the board yet again. Even a min-priced Jankowski (100, .071) has some punt value here. Unfortunately, Evan Carter is not expected back yet. Back to back days for Clase (33).
Update 5:35 EST: Roof closed (ugh) and CLE adds to RHBs (3 total) to make it a bit easier on Gray, especially handing him an automatic out in Hedges at the bottom. I may have to reconsider his daily fantasy value tonight.
Athletics @ Astros
Aaron Brooks? THEE Aaron Brooks? Who has thrown 9.1 innings in this league since 2019 and is 34 years old? Sure is. Projections around four and a half assume just 30 innings with four starts and nine relief appearances and it’s probably too conservative. He has an 11 K-BB% over 107 AAA innings for the Padres and A’s over the last two seasons.
Opp wRC+: 108 (17.3 K%) (incl. Tues)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.21
Averaging just 92.3 mph on his sinker last time out, Framber Valdez is now down 1.6 mph from last year on average, which could be responsible for his career low 18.9 K%. However, a 10.8 SwStr% is still exactly in line with his career and the league averages and contact has been on the ground 61.6% of the time. That’s led to just 3.4% Barrels/BBE, despite a 48.3% hard hit rate that’s better than only his 2020 shortened season mark. This generates a 4.21 xERA that’s more than half a run above all other estimators, ranging from a 3.33 xFIP to a 3.68 FIP. We have a bit of conflict with Stuff+ giving him a 114 grade, but that drops down to a 101 Pitching+, while PitchingBot, which includes command/location still sees his best pitch as a 48 graded sinker.
Opp wRC+: 99 (18 K-BB%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.48
DFS Notes: I’ve already mentioned that I think Framber is the second best arm on the board, along with Lopez, but that’s more a function of the slate and matchup than his own performance this year, which has declined. The A’s are the low team on the board (3.22) by a quarter run, but I wouldn’t be afraid to roster some cheap bats here. RHBs have a .289 wOBA, but .322 xwOBA against Valdez since last season. I’m looking at Toro (198 wRC+, .191 ISO v LHP since LY) as a top value at a tough second or third base position tonight and Rooker (142, .254) and Ruiz (118, .160) in the outfield. Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez and Diaz all have a 130+ wRC+ and .175 ISO against RHP since last season. Tucker (206) is the only one of them reaching a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days. He may be the top overall bat on the board (Brooks is tough to project), but with the top run total on the board (5.28), stack’em up as affordable. Both Miller and Hader threw two innings last night, while Pressly, Abreu and Montero have all pitched two nights in a row.
Update 5:35 EST: Ruiz bats at the bottom of the lineup, killing his value.
Cardinals @ Angels
Lance Lynn has allowed just three barrels with a 25.4% hard hit rate over his last four starts. He’s allowed two home runs over his last six starts. So problem solved, right? Not really, because he has just a 7.2 K-BB% over this six start span. The 10.1% walk rate is the second highest of his career with estimators ranging from a 4.24 xERA (despite 10.7% Barrels/BBE) to a 4.36 SIERA about half a run above his 3.79 ERA. His overall barrel rate is actually up from last year (10.4%). It’s just that they’re not leaving the yard at a ridiculous pace, pitching in mostly power dampening parks and weather conditions this year. With such poor pitch grades (83 Stuff+, 4.95 Bot ERA, all pitches graded below average), it’s not something you can really trust to continue.
Opp wRC+: 93 (incl. Tues)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.47
Griffin Canning threw 5.2 shutout innings at the Royals last time out to lower his ERA to 5.75, but struck out just three of 22 batters. With a 7.9 K-BB% and 10.8% Barrels/BBE, his best estimator is still just a 4.91 SIERA. He has just an 84 Stuff+ grade and 5.04 Bot ERA, but the changeup (22.9%, 2.1 RV/100) is graded above average at least (54). Throw some more of those?
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -4
B30: 3.9
DFS Notes: The Cardinals are at 4.28 implied runs with the Angels at 4.12 with temps in the 60s and a double digit wind out to center in a run neutral, but power friendly park. I’m completely on board for exposure to both sides of either one of these two matchups. However, Lynn may be a bit too expensive, still more than $8K on DraftKings. Canning is the cheapest starter on the board there. I don’t love it, but he’s currently my SP2 in a favorable spot, though the Cardinals do have a team 114 wRC+ over the last week to raise their wRC+ against RHP to 98 this year. I’m also not afraid of attacking Canning where I don’t have him, like in my FD lineup. Matt Carpenter costs the minimum there and leads the team with a 133 wRC+ last 30 days. He’s also been batting leadoff occasionally. Lars Nootbaar (126 wRC+, .179 ISO v RHP since LY) is a cheap OF bat. Batters from either side are between a .310 and .333 wOBA and xwOBA against Canning since last season. Helsely (30) has pitched two of the last three and Romero has gone beyond 20 pitches in three of the last four .
Update 6:35 EST: Despite an earlier start time (9 PM EST), neither team has decided to bless us with a lineup yet. No umpire information either. I'm able to get in a Braves stack on FD if Carpenter remains in the leadoff spot.
Dodgers @ Giants
Bullpen game. Maybe some Ryan Yarbrough, who last threw 18 pitches three days ago and 15 the day before that? There really doesn’t appear to be anyone else on the active roster capable of much length, who hasn’t been used a bit in recent days.
Opp wRC+: 95 (using Yarbrough so LHP) (incl. Tues)
DEF: 11
B30: 3.38
Over his last seven starts, Logan Webb has five quality starts with at least seven innings in each. He got smoked for nine runs in 7.2 innings in the other two in Boston and Philadelphia and there are some issues in his profile. The good is that he’s sustaining a 6.2 BB% and 59.8 GB% around his career averages. The bad is a career low 18.6 K% and 7.5 SwStr% with a career worst 50.3% hard hit rate. He’s still only allowed 10 barrels (5.9%) with all the ground balls, but the wOBA and xwOBA on the changeup (38.8%) are up substantially with a five point reduction in whiff rate. It still gets a 57 PB grade and a Webb has a 113 Stuff+ grade overall, but just a 104 Pitching+, suggesting he may not be locating it as well as previous seasons. It does seem to be the same pitch in shape and mostly located at the very bottom of the zone, so I can’t tell what’s going on without spending a good amount of time on it.
Opp wRC+: 128 (188 Road)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.44
DFS Notes: Temps just below 60 makes this the likely coldest spot on the board. I hate bullpen games. They offer nothing from a daily fantasy perspective. No pitchers and difficult to attack due to unknown matchups. The Giants have a 3.48 team run total that’s second worst on the board and…blegh. I don’t hate Webb here. He’s less than $8.5K and the Dodgers do have an 87 wRC+ and 26.4 K% over the last seven days even after last night’s 10 run outburst. The Dodgers have just a 4.02 implied run line. I’d one off Ohtani (209 wRC+, .381 ISO v RHP since last year) against almost anybody, but am not otherwise really interested in Dodger bats here.
Update 6:30 EST: This is Elieser Hernandez and not a bullpen game. He's been regularly pitching around five innings in the minors, but hasn't pitched in the majors since 2022.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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