A pair of 12 game DFS slates to start the week become 11 game slates with the Chicago PPD and DH. It was a nice run for a couple of weeks, but it's been a rough run the last few days. I won't even blame the stunt DK pulled by listing Gavin Stone, yet setting the line for Yamamoto, as that game is currently tied in the seventh and would be a nice one to grab to end the day. I'm 60% through Tuesday with six more and DFS notes to come in the morning/afternoon.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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Phillies @ Mets
Aaron Nola has just a 15.9 K-BB% with his 3.67 ERA pitching to one-third of a run of all estimators. He also has just a 98 Stuff+ grade, but 104 Pitching+ and two 60 or better grading pitches (PB) when including command (sinker & curveball combine for 52.6% of pitches thrown).
Opp wRC+: 104 (20.3 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.51
Looking at Jose Butto’s pitch modeling, you’d think he were the worst pitcher in the league. Along with just an 87 Stuff+ (89 Pitching+) grade, not a single one of his offerings reaches a 45 PitchingBot grade when including command. I find it hard for a pitcher to strikeout 25.2% of batters being this bad. The 12.6 BB% is a problem, but his worst estimator is a 4.33 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 115 (114 Road, 140 L7 days)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.38
Update 11:45 EST: Still no Realmuto, but Schwarber back. Temps low 70s, double digit wind out to left. Diaz back to back days (44), Ottavino too (25). For Phils, Alvarado (20) and Kerkering (19) back to back, while Stram (36) and Hoffman (18) off yesterday following back to back.
Nationals @ White Sox
Williams and Flexen were covered yesterday, so Mitchell Parker is expected to get one of the games on Tuesday. The great outing in Houston appears to be a high point, not the expectation, but he’s not walking anyone (4.7%) and estimators run only as high as a 3.63 SIERA, despite a 91 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 52 (22.6 K-BB%, 6.2 HR/FB)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.59
Erick Fedde has followed up striking out 20 of 55 Twins and Rays with striking out five of 46 Cardinals and Guardians with as many walks. Non-FIP estimators (seven home runs on 10 barrels) run from a 3.66 dERA to a 3.71 SIERA. Yup, 0.05 points. We can certainly say he’s better than when he left the league, but he may not be able to sustain the 23.4 K% with just an 8.4 SwStr%, though he does have a perfectly average 100 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -12
B30: 4.48
Update 11:45 EST: Game One is yesterday's matchup. Replaying WAS at the same price (-122).
Update 3:15 EST: Playing the Nationals (-108) in game two. Small sample or not, the White Sox are atrocious against LHP and even if you think Fedde is the better pitcher here (estimators suggest differently), the Nationals still have every other advantage.
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Chris Bassitt is still carrying a career high 10.6 BB%, which still results in all of his estimators below a 5.06 ERA, but none by a full run. The Orioles should be able to exploit his platoon issues (LHBs > .350 wOBA & xwOBA since last season).
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 14.5
B30: 4.04
Kyle Bradish has struck out 14 of 43 batters with a 54.5 GB% and 18.2% hard contact rate through two starts (106 Stuff+). However, projections actually slightly rose for an ERA/FIP combo about a quarter run below four.
Opp wRC+: 92 (20.9 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.76
Update 5:15 EST: Springer & Turner still out. Played the under on Bassitt's K prop (4.5 +120). He has a 1.2 K-BB% against LHBs this year and will face six.
Marlins @ Tigers
A 4.54 ERA for David Weathers is within one quarter run of all contact neutral estimators (9.7 K-BB%), but his FIP and xERA stretch just over five (9.3% Barrels/BBE). By pitch modeling, however, he has completely average potential (98 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+, 4.10 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: -14.5
B30: 3.93
Reese Olson hasn’t allowed a home run yet, but has also only allowed six barrels (5.5%) with 54.5% of his contact on the ground, despite a 45.5% hard contact rate. It’s not terrible when your worst estimator is a 4.02 xFIP, yet his pitch modeling is worse than Weathers (91 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+, 4.85 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 89 (20.3 K%)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.14
Rays @ Red Sox
Aaron Civale’s 93.3 Z-Contact% Is worst on the board by more than a full point. The result has been eight home runs on 11 barrels (8.9%). Yet, he’s also getting a 20.2 CStr% (also best among those with more than two starts), which has helped support a 17.3 K-BB% that generates estimators ranging from a 3.64 xFIP to a 4.44 FIP, all well below his 5.88 ERA (62.5 LOB%). Civale hasn’t completed five innings in four straight starts and has been held below 85 pitches in three straight. Pitch modeling is in slight disagreement with a 98 Stuff+ grade (102 Pitching+), but 4.60 Bot ERA, featuring a sinker (19.2%) and four-seamer (13.4%) with grades in the mid-20s.
Opp wRC+: 98 (88 Home, 66 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.35
Nick Pivetta was rudely greeted back to a major league mound by the Braves last week (three home runs, one strikeout). Was it the matchup or the rust? He does have a 20 K-BB% over three starts, but that’s mostly because he’s walked just a pair of batters, while allowing five barrels (11.4%). Pitch modeling absolutely loves what Pivetta has thrown so far this season (130 Stuff+, 78 grade curve and 58 grade four-seamer via PitchingBot).
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -2
B30: 3.79
DFS Notes: An 11 game slate includes nearly half either indoors, on the west coast or both, where the east coast games actually have the warmer temperatures, though weather, in general, shouldn’t be too impactful overall. Eight of 22 teams sit between 4.5 and 4.9 run totals with nobody reaching five. It’ll be interesting to see which of the studs players are paying up for tonight, if paying up for pitching at all because there are some low priced arms with a bit of upside in great spots too. Some tough decisions tonight.
Boston is probably the top run environment on the slate with a 117 Run Factor (Statcast 3y) and temps around 70 with a double digit wind blowing out towards left center. This takes both pitchers off my board, especially considering how rusty Pivetta looked just back from the IL. Both offenses are at 4.5 implied runs and there are some bats from both sides that capture intentions. LHBs have a .324 wOBA and .314 xwOBA against Pivetta since last year. He was better than that late in the year, but this is too strong a spot to ignore Josh Lowe (136 wRC+, .207 ISO since RHP since last year). He has a 128 wRC+ since returning from the IL. There are some decent values throughout the top half of this projected lineup. LHBs are also within a point of a .315 wOBA/xwOBA against Civale since last year, so average and then enhanced by the environment. Wilyer Abreu (160, .208) is one of my top overall bats and values on the board. Rafael Devers (131, .239) is my top 3B play and a strong value too. Jarren Duran (118, .193) is a top OF bat. Adam (24) and Cleavinger (38) two of last three.
Cubs @ Braves
Despite a 1.3 mph velocity drop, Jameson Taillon has posted a 1.13 ERA through four starts. Yes, a .197 BABIP, 93.4 LOB% and 6.3 HR/FB are all due heavy regression, but he’s only allowed three barrels (4.1%) with a 32.9 Hard%. The 17 K% is a bit rough, but he’s only walked 5.3% with a 15.6 IFFB% and 28.1 Z-O-Swing% (only his opponent is better), resulting in a 2.30 xERA with additional estimators ranging from a 3.51 FIP to a 4.32 SIERA. You’re never going to buy into the xERA over contact neutral estimators over such a small sample, but it’s not something to completely ignore either, especially with all the bad swings he’s inducing. To further support all of the above, Taillon receives just an 89 Stuff+ grade, but 109 Pitching+. All five of his pitches grade above 55 with a 2.90 ERA via PitchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 106 (119 Home, 114 L7 days)
DEF: -11
B30: 4.13
As mentioned, Chris Sale tops the board with a 23.5 Z-O-Swing%, but his 79.4 Z-Contact% is also third best on the board (Reid Detmers is actually best at 79.1%). This has resulted in both a 25.9 K-BB% and 29.6% hard contact rate (4.6% Barrels/BBE). I’m no longer skeptical that Sale can retain dominance, but will he stay healthy all year? All pitches grade above average (PB) with a 110 Stuff+ grade. All estimators are below, but within half a run of Sale’s 2.95 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 133 (9.1 K-BB%)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.53
DFS Notes: Temps around 70 with slight wind (6 mph) in from right center. To start with, Chris Sale is one of the two pitchers I’m most interested in paying up for. I have him as the second best arm on the board by a smidgen. I have little interest in Cubs bats (3.33), but do like one particular Atlanta bat (4.67). Matt Olson (161 wRC+, .312 ISO v RHP since LY) has struggled (59 wRC+ L30 days), but his $3.2K price tag on FanDuel is too low to ignore against a pitcher who has allowed a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 to LHBs since last season. It’ll be harder to pay up for Braves on DraftKings, but each of the first five in their regular lineup (including Riley) have at least a 110 wRC+ and exceed a .200 ISO against RHP since 2023. D’arnaud and Ozuna hit a 180+ wRC+ over the last 30 days with Acuna (115) the only other projected Brave above 85. A.J. Minter off back to back days (27).
Update 4:50 EST: Crow-Armstrong (41.7 K% v LHP) adds another LHB against Sale (3 in total).
Yankees @ Twins
Outside of a couple of rough divisional road starts in Toronto and Baltimore, Carlos Rodon has been rolling. I mean, at least his 3.56 ERA is and his 116 Stuff+ grade suggests he’s back to form. His 15.6 K-BB% is certainly better than last year, but still not what the Yankees thought they were paying for and he’s also allowed 10.5% Barrels/BBE. His 3.96 SIERA is actually his only estimator within eight-tenths of a run of his ERA. But he still has a 61 grade fastball (PB) that he throws 55.8% of the time and that includes location. However, the top offense against fastballs? It’s the Twins (1.41 wFA/C) almost twice as proficient as the second best team (0.76 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 119 (109 Home, 110 L7 days)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.63
Chris Paddack has hit double digit strikeouts against the White Sox and Mariners over his last four starts. He also has just two in three of his other five. It’s a volatile way to get to a league average strikeout rate, but the great thing is he rarely walks anyone either way (4.8%) and has only one estimator above four (4.04 xERA). He has just a 93 Stuff+ grade, but 105 Pitching+ and the really interesting thing is his changeup. He throws it 27.8% of the time with a 70 PitchingBot grade. The only pitch the Yankees are below average against? That’s the changeup (-1.3 wCH/C) and they’re actually third worst in the league.
Opp wRC+: 124 (116 Road, 151 L7 days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.7
Those little pitch factoids along with Paddack having better estimators than Rodon really makes me like the home dogs here. They don’t have as good of an offense as the Yankees, but it’s still pretty good. I have them graded just slightly better F5 than full game, but there’s not much difference either way. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
DFS Notes: Seventy degrees, but a near double digit wind blowing in from center. I believe Rodon to be overpriced at $8K or more, but would consider a highly volatile Paddack in an SP2 spot for $6.5K, though he’s not my favorite. Both offenses sit middle of the board at 4.25 runs. The obvious Yankee bats you want may be too expensive on this slate, though with LHBs at a .368 wOBA, .342 xwOBA against Paddack since last year, I’d certainly consider Soto (170 wRC+, .266 ISO v RHP since LY) a top bat. Ryan Jeffers (154 wRC+, .269 ISO v LHP since LY, 191 wRC+ L30 days) and Carlos Correa (106, .169, 114) are the reasonably priced Minnesota bats I’m most interested in, the former maybe the top Catcher bat on the board. Although better this year, RHBs still have a .358 wOBA, .348 xwOBA against Rodon since last year.
Update 4:45 EST: 4.76% gain on Twins F5 from +110 to -110.
Pirates @ Brewers
Walking more than he’s struck out in each of his last two starts against the A’s and Angels, Quinn Priester just hasn’t shown the same stuff at the major league level that made him a strong prospect. That’s a 4.2 K-BB% through his first four starts this year and 4.0% career (71 IP). He’s allowed six home runs on seven barrels with a 49.3% hard hit rate and that’s just this year. Estimators ranging from a 4.36 dERA to a 6.85 FIP are all at least half a run above his 3.86 ERA (.232 BABIP & four unearned runs). The issue is compounded with an 89 Stuff+ grade and 5.01 Bot ERA. There’s nothing to suggest this is going to get better.
Opp wRC+: 122 (117 Home, 123 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.39
Joe Ross hasn’t been good (9.3 K-BB%, 9.4% Barrels/BBE), but it’s been better than Priester with estimators ranging from a 3.86 FIP to a 4.66 xFIP. It’s odd that he’d suddenly have a reverse split this year, as he’s still a sinker/slider guy, but here we are. He is elevating those sinkers though, so perhaps that’s where it’s at. Ross had a 90 Stuff+ grade and 4.33 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: 2
B30: 4.04
Ross has clearly been the better below average pitcher here, by about two-thirds of a run. And the Brewers have been the better offense by over 40 points of wRC+. They also have a large defensive edge, which gives them some value at -152 (F5). I’ll take the slightly better price with the chance for a push over full game, despite the better bullpen too.
DFS Notes: I don’t know the weather in Milwaukee, but I don’t think they’ve opened the roof yet. With the struggling Pirates at 3.81 implied runs, I think you can drop down to Joe Ross for your SP2 at the second lowest price on the board ($5.2K). I’ve paired him with Sale in one of my lineups. Bryan Reynolds (20.9%) is the only projected Pittsburgh bat below a 23.5 K% against RHP since last year. LHBs have shelled Priester in his short career (.428 wOBA, .423 xwOBA), but it’s enough to really like some Milwaukee bats with a 4.69 team run total. Christian Yelich (141 wRC+, .201 ISO v RHP since LY, 153 wRC+ L30 days) is one of my favorite bats on the board and I like Jake Bauers (102, .221, 166) at 1B or OF here. A sneakier name would be Joey Ortiz (141, .228, 124) as a punt infielder (2B). RHBs exceed a .320 wOBA/xwOBA against Priester too. Three days in a row for Bednar. Chapman had last night off, but 50 pitches over the weekend.
Update 5:50 EST: Roof closed. Dunn in for Hoskins. Pitching friendly umpire (Eddings). Bauers bats fifth. No PIT lineup yet.
Guardians @ Rangers
The Lively Leiter matchup just sounds interesting. Probably more than it is. Since striking out 14 of 42 Red Sox with just a single walk in his first two starts, Ben Lively has struck out 12 of 69 Braves, Angels and White Sox with eight walks. He’s allowed just a pair of long balls, but seven barrels (9.2%) and a 42.1% hard hit rate with a mere 26.3 GB%. That generates a 4.45 xERA, even with a 15.3 K-BB% that’s trending in the wrong direction. A 78 Stuff+ grade is another indicator that things are headed south, but he’s been able to turn that into a 97 Pitching+ grade that could potentially help him stick around.
Opp wRC+: 108 (19.7 K%)
DEF: 0
B30: 2.8
Jack Leiter has given every indication that his arsenal can play in this league (116 Stuff+), but he needs to control and command it better. All three of his walks came in his first start in Detroit, where he had a 62.5% hard hit rate, but 40% of his hard contact resulted in barrels in Oakland with both leaving the park. A .419 BABIP and 32.9 LOB% are laughable, but there are some adjustments necessary. Leiter has allowed five barrels to just 42 batters and while he threw 75% first strikes to the A’s, he had a 90.9 Z-Contact% in that start too. He threw a lot of pitchers over the plate, but also a lot of uncompetitive ones too with very few on the corners or edges of the strike zone. Projection systems are not kind, projecting him at an ERA/FIP combination about a quarter of a run below five.
Opp wRC+: 96 (19.2 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.36
DFS Notes: A solid run environment even with the roof closed (106 Run Factor) as it almost always is, the Rangers are near the top of the board at 4.62 implied runs with the Guardians not too far below (4.38). This is probably not the spot where I expect Leiter to break out with neither offense offering enough strikeouts to risk either pitcher here. I think Tyler Freeman (76 wRC+, .104 ISO v RHP since LY, 99 wRC+ L30 days) could be a great value if still leading off in a good environment against a pitcher with command issues. Gimenez, Ramirez and J.Naylor are your Cleveland bats above a 100 wRC+ and .180 ISO against RHP since last year. Naylor, Ramirez and Will Brennan are the only three projected who exceed a 100 wRC+ L30 days. On the other side, with LHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Lively since last year, Seager (163, .274, 62) is the top SS on the board tonight and I like Evan Carter (167, .307, 80) if he’s back in the lineup. Nathaniel Lowe (135, .168, 145) costs just $3.1K on FD.
Update 5 EST: Open roof increases run environment on average from 106 to 114. Should compete for Fenway for top offensive spot on the slate. Carter remains out and Brennan out for the Guardians. A RHB added in each instance (Duran, Fry).
Athletics @ Astros
J.P. Sears has allowed multiple home runs in three of his last seven starts. He’s allowed a total of one run in his other four starts combined. The seven home runs match up with a slight barrel issue (9.5%). This is a bit of a problem with a 17.8 K% (10.8 K-BB%), but he does have a near league average 10.3 SwStr% that suggests some improvement with a league average CStr% too. He also has a 104 Stuff+ grade with PitchingBot only seeing the changeup (47 grade) as below average.
Opp wRC+: 125 (17.1 K%)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.13
If you believe Ronel Blanco can sustain a rate of 5.3% Barrels/BBE, then his 2.86 xERA is still more than half a run above his 2.23 ERA. If not, then his below league average 11.9 K-BB% emits additional estimators ranging from a 3.92 dERA to a 4.28 SIERA. On top of that, Blanco has just a 96 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grade that suggests results are way out of line. We already know that .183 BABIP and 89.7 LOB% are unsustainable.
Opp wRC+: 102 (130 L7 days)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.77
Blanco has an 11.4 BB% and the A’s take their walks (9.8% v RHP). I’ll say what I wrote yesterday again. A perception issue is jacking this line up. The Astros are still better, but not this much better (+170) and if it’s close late, Oakland might be the bullpen you want.
DFS Notes: Roof generally closed, this is a neutral run environment, where either pitcher is a tough roster with Blanco particularly overpriced. Despite Oakland’s 3.66 team run total, LHBs have a .307 wOBA, but .335 xwOBA against Blanco in his career. I have Toro (125 wRC+, .168 ISO v RHP since LY, 137 wRC+ L30 days) and Tyler Soderstrom (57, .116, 206) as top values at tough positions tonight. J.J. Bleday (117, .176, 155 ) costs less than $3K on FD. With batters from either side between a .315 and .361 wOBA and xwOBA against Sears, I have Jeremy Pena (147, .167, 153) a potential top SS value, having moved up in the order. Bregman and Diaz are the only pair projected who are below a 125 wRC+ or even 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year. They are two of three, along with Alvarez, below a 110 wRC+ or even 90 over the last 30 days.
Update 4:30 EST: Pitcher friendly umpire (Estabrook). Oakland has added some higher strikeout rates to the bottom half of the lineup, but 2.96% gain on Oakland.
Cardinals @ Angels
Sonny Gray is coming off his worst start of the season. The Brewers took him deep three times on four barrels. At this point, all of his estimators are above a 2.29 ERA, but only a 3.09 dERA and 3.32 xERA run above three. A 27.6 K-BB% would be third best in baseball among qualifiers and while he doesn’t throw anything that PitchingBot gives worse than a 52 grade to (2.34 Bot ERA), it may be more about the command (106 Pitching+) than the stuff (96 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 1
B30: 3.47
Reid Detmers has been smoked for 18 runs over his last 15.2 innings with five home runs on seven barrels (13.5%), but those barrels account for 36.8% of his hard contact over this span and he’s maintaining a near average 12.3 K-BB%. Pitch modeling grades every pitch he throws 60 or better over this span as well, where he has 95 Stuff+ and 96 Pithcing+ grades that are nearly average. It’s been bad, but should get better. On the season, a 4.11 FIP is his worst estimator by more than one-third of a run.
Opp wRC+: 61 (19 K%, but 4.5 HR/FB)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.86
I think I’ve talked (or written) myself out of taking either the Angels moneyline or going under the Cardinals total here. For the first, I’m not sure this lineup can score enough to win against Gray and for the latter, the low strikeout rate in the small sample size for the Cardinals is more concerning than Detmers’ recent numbers, which are due for regression.
DFS Notes: Low 60s with a near double digit wind out to left center, the Cardinals have a 4.02 team total with the Angels down at 3.48. It’s really pitching or nothing here. Sonny Gray may be my least favorite of the high priced pitchers, but I still consider him third best arm on the board. I’m a bit surprised that Detmers is still above $8K here. It’s a decent spot, but not a ton of strikeouts for him. Goldschmidt and Gorman are the only projected St. Louis bats above a 100 wRC+ against southpaws since last year, Gorman the only one above a .180 ISO and Arenado the only bat above a 100 wRC+ L30 days. Herrera (75 wRC+, 118 ISO v LHP since LY, 93 wRC+ L30 days) is cheap enough for a catcher punt here.
Update 6 EST: No Herrera or Nootbaar. Winn bats leadoff. Pillar and Tucker in for Moniak and Neto.
Reds @ Diamondbacks
Hunter Greene allowed just his third home run and fifth barrel of the year last time out and has just a 30.4% hard hit rate. It seems as if he’s solved that issue at least, but his 16.8 K-BB% is not only a career low, but his first time below 20%. He’s had a couple of games where he’s filled up the strike zone with unhittable pitches, but his overall F-Strike rate is down to 59.2% from 64.5% in his first two seasons. After a five stretch start where he walked just eight of 122 batters, he’s walked nine of his last 47, including five Diamondbacks last time out. The good news is his 2.61 xERA is more than three runs below a 3.38 ERA that is an exact match for his FIP, but contact neutral estimators include a 3.79 SEIRA and 4.17 xFIP. Pitch modeling still loves what he’s throwing (129 Stuff+, but 104 Pitching+). PitchingBot doesn’t grade a pitch below 50, including a 61 grade fastball.
Opp wRC+: 90 (10.5 K-BB%, 115 Home & L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.89
Eight of Slade Cecconi’s 17 strikeouts came in a single start in Seattle. He’s walked five of his last 41 batters since (including in Cincinnati) with just six strikeouts. It’s been unfortunate that all four of his barrels have left the park and he’s only allowed hard contact at a 32.2% rate, resulting in a 2.71 ERA that’s his only estimator below a 4.15 ERA with others ranging from a 4.39 SIERA to a 5.07 FIP. Pitch modeling is more supportive of the contact profile though, giving his four-seam, curve and changeup (76.8% of his pitches) all grades above 60 (PB) with a 100 Stuff+, but 106 Pitching+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 82 (27.1 K%)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.72
DFS Notes: Slightly negative (96 Run Factor) with the roof closed, both sides still sit middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs. This is a tougher spot than the 90 wRC+ against RHP suggests, which you can see in the other numbers for the Diamondbacks. Cecconi is in a high enough upside spot for an SP2 gamble, though, again, not my favorite cheapie. Will Benson (134 wRC+, .238 ISO v RHP since LY) is the cheap Cincy bat that sticks out here. LHBs have a .321 wOBA, .316 xwOBA against Cecconi career. I’m just leaving the entire other side of this equation alone. Diaz (39), Pagan (29) and Cruz (46) all back to back games though.
Update 6:20 EST: Steer out for Reds. Marte & Moreno out for D'Backs.
Rockies @ Padres
Sandwiched in between four quality starts where he’s allowed just a pair of runs over 25.2 innings, Cal Quantrill was also blown up for six runs by Houston with a pair of homers, strikeouts and walks. The 3.94 ERA is a byproduct of a .259 BABIP and 80.1 LOB% with just a 7.2 K-BB%. Estimators ranging from a 4.13 xERA to a 5.02 xERA are all some degree higher and more reflective of his 94 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades. PitchingBot gives his main pitch, the sinker (39.9%) a 36 grade, the main component of a 4.43 Bot ERA, but every other pitch receives an above average grade (52 to 59). A 43.6 Z-O-Swing% is fourth worst on the day.
Opp wRC+: 120 (19.7 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.17
Velocity up (1.2 mph over last year) and walk rate down (8.6%), Dylan Cease has been mostly pure domination in a San Diego uniform (32.4 K%, 14.9 SwStr%, 79.3 Z-Contact%). He has allowed 12 Barrels (11.1%) with some luck involved in just two of them leaving the yard, but that’s also accounted for a whopping 32.4% of his 34.3% hard contact rate. Thus, a 2.79 xERA is only a half run above Cease’s 2.26 FIP, which nearly matches his 2.19 ERA. Other estimators only run as high as a 3.55 dERA. The slider (40.6%, 2.1 RV/100) gets a 57 PB grade, the fastball (43.4%, 0.3 RV/100) a 54 grade, the overall result a 3.44 BOT ERA and 120 Stuff+ grade (106 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 79 (77 Road)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.57
DFS Notes: Temps around 60 with little wind in an already pitcher friendly environment makes Dylan Cease the top pitcher on the board, just ahead of Chris Sale. I would prefer to pay up for him on FanDuel, but find equal value in either with a $1K difference on DraftKings. I was able to make a lineup with both and a bunch of cheap bats mentioned throughout. The Rockies have a 2.37 implied run line that’s far and away the lowest total on the board. Blackmon (15.9%) and Diaz (23%) the only pair in the projected lineup below a 25 K% v RHP since last year. The Padres (4.63) don’t strike out, but don’t have a ton of power (nobody projected exceeds a .190 ISO v RHP since LY). Arraez (138 wRC+, .117 ISO v RHP since LY, 112 wRC+ L30 days) is probably the singular bat I’d pick out, though I’d otherwise stack with these tendencies, though LHBs (.356 wOBA, .366 xwOBA) are better than RHBs (.312, .341) against Quantrill since last season. Beeks back to back (40) and Lawrence (37 yesterday) may be unavailable.
Royals @ Mariners
Michael Wacha produced his first quality start in four attempts last time out, but it still involved three runs (two earned) and five walks. He did strike out six of 27 Angels, but has just a 19.4 K% on the season (16.4% L30 days) and hasn’t hit a double digit SwStr% since his second start. PitchingBot still gives the changeup (33.1%) a 78 grade to go along with a 2.7 RV/100, but the curveball, sinker and cutter that make up 41.8% of his tosses are all below average. However, despite the 89 Stuff+ grade, Wacha has a 98 Pitching+ grade and 2.82 Bot ERA. With a 7.9 BB%, the control issues last time out seem an aberration and all estimators suggest results (5.15 ERA) should get better with estimators ranging from a 3.80 FIP to a 4.80 dERA (.331 BABIP, 65.7 LOB%).
Opp wRC+: 97 (29 K%)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 4.33
Outside of blowup starts in Milwaukee (three home runs) and Minnesota (eight runs) last time out, Logan Gilbert has authored six quality starts with more than a single run only once , recording seventh inning outs in every single one. He’s dropped his four-seamer 10 points (31%) and begun throwing a cutter (19.1%). It’s been merely another average pitch, but gives his other pitches another look to tunnel off of, helping his slider (29.3%, 2.2 RV/100, 55 PB grade) and curveball (6.3%, 4.3 RV/100, 64 grade) dominate in support of a 19.6 K-BB% and estimators ranging from a 3.13 xERA to a 3.54 dERA just a bit above his 2.94 ERA (.226 BABIP).
Opp wRC+: 95 (18.4 K%)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.25
DFS Notes: The Royals are at 3.14 implied runs, the Mariners 3.83 in the most negative run environment in baseball. Gilbert is my fourth best pitcher tonight with the Royals being tough to fan, but he’s not as expensive as the three better arms tonight, which I think makes him more viable than Gray. No KC bats for me tonight. Rojas (107 wRC+, .122 ISO v RHP since LY, 176 wRC+ L30 days) and Raleigh (118, .228, 155) are fine, but I’m not as high on them as usual in this spot. LHBs have a very average .306 wOBA and .311 xwOBA against Wacha since last season, which the environment dampens. Munoz back to back days, but just 26 pitches.
Update 5:25 EST: Bottom of KC lineup has some Ks in it.
Dodgers @ Giants
Three straight quality starts with three runs over 20 innings for Gavin Stone, in which he’s walked just three of 74 batters, but also only struck out 11 with six barrels (10%). The improvement is strictly the product of a .175 BABIP and perfect strand rate. He has a 3.96 Bot ERA and 99 Stuff+ (102 Pitching+) over that span. Improving to an average pitcher is not nothing, but he now has a 3.55 ERA without a non-FIP estimator below four.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 11
B30: 3.54
Keaton Winn has been shelled in starts at Philly and Coors last two times out (4.1 IP – 27 BF – 12 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 1 K). That’s driven his ERA up to 5.63, but a 4.95 xERA is his only estimator within a run and a half. He’s only struck out 18.5% of batters, but generates tons of ground balls (56.8%) with a near league average 9.9 SwStr%. The confirmation that he’s better than his results are a 112 Stuff+ grade (105 Pitching+) and 60 grade splitter (42.4% usage) via PitchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 126 (114 Road)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.67
This is basically a repeat of last night, though Winn doesn’t have the walk concerns Hicks does. He was smoked in two tough spots and still has estimators that average nearly half a run better than Grove. Bullpens are very comparable here too. The Dodgers have a large offensive edge and a moderate defensive one (which is a surprise), but I don’t see that being enough to make them sizeable road favorites.
DFS Notes: The Giants are at 3.89 runs, but the Dodgers top the board at 4.89, despite the negative run environment with temps below 60. Keaton Winn is the cheapest arm on the board ($5K), but not terrible. He also has a reverse split (RHBs .330 wOBA, .348 xwOBA since LY). I think Dodger bats are overpriced here and would go underweight, although Gavin Lux is the only projected Dodger below a 100 wRC+ or .150 ISO v RHP since last year. They’re just too expensive and Winn keeps the ball on the ground in a tough park. Batters from either side are between a .344 and .366 wOBA and xwOBA against Stone since last year, but again, it’s a tough park and I think he’s improved somewhat, even if I think sportsbooks are too high on him tonight. I have little opinion either way on his DFS value for $7.9K. Doval (31) has thrown back to back games.
Update 6:10 EST: Bailey still out. I must be mis-reading the Giants. Up to +160. The 3.56% loss is probably biggest of the season.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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