We start the week off with a massive Monday board that includes 14 games and 12 on the daily fantasy slate with nearly half of it on the west coast. In fact, it’s one of three DFS slates with at least 12 games this week. Made it through 11 of them, most in depth, with just three more to go on Monday.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Blue Jays @ Orioles
We start with two pitchers who’s performance has decline since last season and are both set to regress. Berrios is likely to be hit harder and certainly was by the Phillies in his last start. They homered twice and put eight runs on the board before Berrios was done, yet he still has a 2.86 ERA that’s more than a run and a third lower than any of his estimators and just a 95 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 104 (117 Home)
DEF: 14.5
B30: 4.21
Corbin Burnes has struck out no more than six in seven straight starts and exactly six in four of them (14.4 K-BB%). His 2.83 ERA is below, but within a run of estimators ranging from a 2.99 xERA to a 3.58 FIP. Despite this, his 119 Stuff+ and 110 Pitching+ grades still only drop to 118 and 109 if you remove his stellar Baltimore debut and his 12.5 SwStr% since is slightly higher than his 12.2% on Opening Day. In other words, I’m far less concerned about Burnes than Berrios, but still curious. He’s also in a slightly troubling spot for his reverse split, facing a predominantly right-handed lineup that’s been hitting the ball better of late.
Opp wRC+: 94 (123, 15.7 K% L7days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.00
Update 4 EST: Springer, Turner, Jansen, Kiermaier out for Toronto. Line movement towards Baltimore.
Marlins @ Tigers
And now we have a pair of post-hype prospects, neither of whom started the season in their teams’ respective rotations. Sixto Sanchez has been shelled for 10 runs over 10.2 innings in three starts, striking out just eight of 51 batters with four walks. This includes a 7.3 SwStr% and 42.1% hard contact rate, while his fastball has averaged 96.3 mph, 96.2 and then 93.0 in starts in Atlanta, against Colorado and in Oakland. Yikes with a 92 Stuff+ grade in those three starts!
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.00
Matt Manning is not as far removed as his top prospect status at six months older than Sanchez and his 93.5 mph fastball is actually his best season average by 0.2 mph. After shutting out the Mets over 5.2 innings, despite walking four and striking out three, he’s struck out seven with two walks in both subsequent starts, allowing four runs to each the Twins and Cardinals in home starts. His 99 Stuff+ & 100 Pitching+ grade suggest a perfectly average pitcher, as does a 4.24 ERA that’s within one-third of a run of all contact neutral estimators. With three home runs on four barrels and a 30.4% hard hit rate, his FIP and xERA run about a half run above and below, respectively.
Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: -2
B30: 3.96
Update 4:15 EST: No Detroit lineup yet. Might be the warmest game (mid-70s), but double digit wind in from right. Some bottom of the order changes for Marlins. Scott 39 pitches Sunday. Lange 27.
Rays @ Red Sox
Consistency hasn’t been as much of a virtue of Zach Eflin’s as it was last year. He has four quality starts with a total of two earned runs, but has allowed 19 runs over his other 22.1 innings. The two things he has done consistently is throw strikes (2.0 BB%) and push deeper into games than most Tampa Bay pitchers. Of course, those things correlate. However, the strikeout rate is down exactly seven points (19.5%) and the swinging strike rate almost two (9.3%). His sinker is down 0.7 mph, but has a higher whiff rate than last year (12.9% to 19.3%). The curve, cutter and sweeper have all seen minor reductions in whiff rates, but still all grade well above average. In fact, the lowest PB grade on any pitch he’s thrown (four of them) is 57. It’s more about the location and command (105 Pitching+) than the stuff (96 Stuff+). All estimators are within one-third of a run of his 3.75 ERA with a 3.44 xERA (6.4% Barrels/BBE) the furthest removed.
Opp wRC+: 98 (88 Home)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.53
It continues to amaze me that Kutter Crawford has a below average cutter (49 PB grade) and continues to throw it 32% of the time. Does he think he’s obligated to throw it? What if he was named Meatball Crawford? Four straight quality starts in which he’s seen his ERA rise to 1.77 are the result of not only a 16.4 K-BB% and strong contact management, in which he’s allowed a 95+ mph EV on just 30.2% of his contact, but he’s also induced an incredible 14 infield flies already. That said, just two of his nine barrels have left the park and he’s stranded 83.3% of his runners. He also has 107 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ grades, despite PitchingBot only grading his four-seamer (56, 30.4%) above average.
Opp wRC+: 100 (132, 8.2 K-BB% L7 days)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.61
DFS Notes: To start with, five of 12 are protected environments tonight with Arizona already announcing roof closure for the entire series against the Reds. Temps are almost universally in the 60s across the board with San Francisco being the only place where they might be lower. Wind blowing out might be a factor in some parks and there may be one possible washout (Chicago). There’s also the questions of just who the hell is pitching in San Francisco tonight. Stone is listed (MLB.com & DraftKings), but beat writers are saying Yamamoto. If they’ve made a mistake, this is one time I’d expect sportsbooks to refund bets with it not being a scratch situation. Hopefully we’ll get clarity in time for the DFS slate to lock. No team reaches five implied runs, but a quarter of the board gets to four and a half with the Astros coming the closest to five.
Starting in Boston, I’ll only mention temperatures outside the 60s, but a 10 mph wind towards the monster could mitigate some of the cooler temperature effects. This may remain the most hitter friendly environment on the slate, but there’s enough upside in Elfin and this Boston lineup to consider him one of the top pitchers and values on the board. He actually matches up pretty well with another pitcher in the same price range, but with a higher upside spot in a better park, but you could opt to play both on DraftKings or Kutter Crawford with both teams here at 4.25 implied runs. More interested in pitchers than bats here, you still can’t ignore Devers (131 wRC+, .238 ISO v RHP since LY) and Abreu (156, .205) in this environment. Both exceed a 160 wRC+ L30 days. Batters from either side are below a .290 wOBA/xwOBA against Crawford since last year, but Lowe (136, .206) is fairly affordable here. Again, more interest in reasonably priced quality pitching on a tough slate than bats.
Update 4:20 EST: Rosario, Jackson, Siri in for Paredes, Rortvedt, DeLuca adds more Ks for Kutter. Jansen (53) has pitched three days in a row, Martin (21) two.
Phillies @ Mets
Groundballer (61.8%) Cristopher Sanchez has struck out just nine of his last 67 batters (4.2 SwStr%) with seven walks. He’s allowed 43.1% hard contact over this span, but just a single barrel. His sinker velocity remains up nearly two mph from last season, which led to a spike in strikeouts to start the season, but it now has a lower whiff rate (9.7%) than last season (10.7%). The sinker remains an above average pitch over these last three starts (53 PB grade, 102 Stuff+), even if the overall arsenal has suffered (93 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+). This is a reduction of five points from his season grades. For the season, all non-FIP estimators are above his 3.22 ERA, running only as high as a 3.64 xERA that matches his 3.63 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 89 (18.6 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.66
Sean Manaea stifled his rising walk rate, issue just a single free pass to the 24 Cardinals he faced last time out. The problem was that he compiled the same amount of strikeouts. Early season hype after beating up on a pair of poor offenses has turned into a mere 1.8 K-BB% over his last five starts. The good news is that he hasn’t allowed a barrel in three straight starts (31.9 Hard%), but with just a single home run allowed all year, his best estimator is a 4.48 xERA that’s over a run above his 3.31 ERA. Manaea has a paltry 86 Stuff+ grade with Pitching Bot grading only his sinker (33.8%, 59 grade) above 40.
Opp wRC+: 120 (114 Road, 146 L7 days)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.25
Sanchez may not be at his best right now, but Manaea hasn’t been since his first two starts and there’s a big gap between offenses right now, even considering the lack of strikeout for the Mets against LHP. (PHI -122 F5) (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
DFS Notes: Wind blowing out to left 10-15 mph here with both teams at 3.75 implied runs in one of the most negative run environments in the league. That said, neither pitcher is pitching well enough to earn much interest. RHBs have a .328 wOBA, .325 xwOBA against Sanchez since last year. The cheaper right-handed Mets, which includes J.D. Martinez (138 wRC+, .290 ISO v LHP since LY) and either Taylor (72, .174) or Bader (123, .208), whomever plays, could have some value here. I’d throw in a right-handed stack or two in multi entries. Merrifield and Rojas are the only pair in the projected Philly LU below a 119 wRC+ or .186 ISO v LHP since last year, but Phillies are more expensive than Mets. Everyone in the projected lineup has at least a 95 wRC+ L30 days though with Castellanos the low man.
Update 4:30 EST: Schwarber, Realmuto, Pache out for Phils. Stott, Marsh and Stubbs in puts 4 LHBs in against Manaea. Nimmo back adds one for Mets. No Taylor. Both pitchers struggle with RHBs. Alvarado two of last three (27), Hoffman (18) and Strahm (36) two in a row.
Cubs @ Braves
The Braves have been susceptible to the splitter over a small sample (-0.30 wSP/C), but PitchingBot gives Shota Imanaga’s splitter a mere 47 grade, crediting the high heat (92 mph) for most of his success (67 grade). He’s allowed just six runs on the season, completing seven innings in each of his last two starts, allowing just 5.4% Barrels/BBE, despite just a 36.4 GB% to go with a 23.8 K-BB%. Pitch modeling gives more credit to the command (106 Pitching+) than the pure stuff (97 Stuff+). Sure, there’s going to be regression from a 1.08 ERA (.239 BABIP, 90.6 LOB%), but his worst estimator is still just a 3.54 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 121 (120 Home)
DEF: -10.5
B30: 3.98
Reynaldo Lopez is supporting a 1.53 ERA with a solid, but unspectacular 15.6 K-BB%. Maybe it’s in the contact profile. He’s only allowed five barrels (5.5%), but with a 44% hard contact rate. With only a pair of fly balls leaving the park, non-FIP estimators tightly range from a 3.72 xERA to a 4.02 dERA. PitchingBot only grades his curveball (10.2%) above average (54), while Stuff+ (96) is less impressed with his results.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -4
B30: 3.43
DFS Notes: Sixties with a 10 mph wind blowing in from left-center might be pitching weather in Atlanta and help Imanaga’s fly ball tendencies in a tough spot. Yet, it’s still tough enough that I’m a bit lukewarm on him and believe him to be adequately (though not necessarily over) priced. The Braves are expensive and barely reach four runs here. The Cubs are fourth from the bottom (3.45) and I’ll say the exact same about Lopez as Imanaga in this spot. Adequately priced, but fine on this board, where they both are probably two of the top five or six arms on a board with a clear dominant one (unless Yamamoto pitches).
Update 4:45 EST: Short in for Riley. Lopez 5 to 7 Ks each start, facing 23-24 batters per start. Cubs with near average strikeout rates against RHP. Nice price (+130) for Lopez to get six tonight. Top four CHC relievers threw between 17-26 pitches last night. Iglesias last night off after 49 pitches previous two games.
Nationals @ White Sox
Pitch modeling has liked Trevor Williams’ fastball ever since it’s inception (36.4%, 56 PB grade this year). Despite averaging only 89.3 mph with it, Williams is using it to set up his other pitches well enough to establish a league average 12.6 K-BB%, while allowing just 4.0% Barrels/BBE this season. With estimators running only as high as a 4.04 SIERA, the caveats are an 8.0 SwStr% and 82 Stuff+ grade (92 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 77 (77 Home)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.56
Since returning from a short bullpen stint, Chris Flexen has allowed just three runs over 16 innings with a 13.1 K-BB% and just 11 hard hit batted balls (26.8%, no barrels). What he’s simply done is throw fewer fastballs (31.9%) in favor of sliders and cutters. Isolating his pitch modeling grades for just these three starts results in…an 80 Stuff+ grade and every one of those secondaries graded 42 or worse by PitchingBot. His 92.9 Z-Contact% has actually risen over this span, though his 35.3 Z-O-Swing% is an improvement. In the end, it may not be sustainable, if pitch metrics are right, but a 5.06 dERA is now his only estimator above five, though all are above his 4.29 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -11.5
B30: 4.61
I’m not buying into either of these pitchers doing what they have been in recent outings, but more importantly, the Nationals have advantages in every other aspect of this game and are only small favorites here (-122).
DFS Notes: We don’t want pitchers here, but will the weather take out bats too? Rain is the problem here, not wind (6 mph in from right). The Nationals are top quarter of the board at 4.53 implied runs. Maybe a rain out with help you from having to deal with a frustrating stack. Both of these pitchers are pitching better than they should be. Right-handed batters have a .388 wOBA and .385 xwOBA against Flexen since last year with LHBs at .351, .335. Nobody here really stands out as a must roster, considering how expensive Abrams (110 wRC+, .193 ISO v RHP since LY) has gotten.
Update 5 EST: Senzel in for Winker adds a RHB against Flexen's reverse split, but Rosario (a LHB) bumped up to third. No change on WAS moneyline.
Pirates @ Brewers
Mitch Keller went the full nine last time out and now averages 26.25 batters faced per game start this year. That’s a lot of average work (13.4 K-BB%, 8.2% Barrels/BBE), which is great. A lot of teams would love to send an average pitcher out there three times through the lineup every five days. Estimators range from a 3.85 xFIP to a 4.66 xERA, while pitch modeling gives him a 100 Stuff+ grade (98 Pitching+) with all pitches graded between 47 and 55 (PitchingBot). Easiest analysis ever done.
Opp wRC+: 124 (121 Home, 120 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.25
Colin Rea has a 3.29 ERA, but just a 15.1 K% (7.1 SwStr%) and has allowed 10.9% Barrels/BBE (45.6 Z-O-Swing%). He doesn’t have a single estimator below five, but a pair above five. His success is the matter of an 81.4 LOB% and just five of his 14 barrels leaving the yard. Pitch modeling will not absolve Rea either with an 85 Stuff+ and not a single pitch grade reaching 50 (PB). The Pirates may not be able to full exploit his platoon issues though (RHBs .274 wOBA, .312 xwOBA since LY, LHBs > .340).
Opp wRC+: 74
DEF: 3
B30: 4.04
DFS Notes: Keller is over-priced, where the Pirates have been surprisingly bad enough that Rea might not be terrible on this slate, but not someone I’m looking to get into lineups. The Brewers at 4.26 implied runs are half a run ahead of the Pirates, but I’m more interested in individual bats here, particularly Oneil Cruz (132 wRC+, .191 ISO v RHP since LY), where there’s not a lot of value at SS. LHBs have a .348 wOBA, .359 xwOBA against Rea since last season. Reynolds (108, .203) and Suwinski (106, .228) look good here too. Yelich (142, .203) is one of the top outfield bats with LHBs at .335, .332 against Keller since last year.
Update 5:15 EST: Line movement gives Brewers (-116 F5) some value. Keller is the better pitcher, but massive offensive and defensive edges for Brewers. Wouldn't play much beyond that price though. Bednar and Chapman both off back to back games if you'd prefer full game.
Guardians @ Rangers
Tanner Bibee has allowed 10 runs over his last nine innings, striking out nine of 41 batters (9.8 SwStr%) with four barrels (13.3%). Even more problematic, they were both home starts against the Angels and Tigers. The fastball is not good (-3.5 RV/100, .504 wOBA, .437 xwOBA, 49 PB grade) and yet he throws it 44.1% of the time over secondaries like his slider (57 grade) and changeup (61). That may be the difference in his 4.91 ERA matching a 4.95 xERA rather than his 3.60 SIERA or 3.73 xFIP.
Opp wRC+: 112 (19.6 K%)
DEF: 0
B30: 2.96
Michael Lorenzon has a 4.64 ERA with a 4.47 dERA his only estimator below four and a half and not a single pitch reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade, yet the Rangers are letting him face 24 batters per game and at least that many in every start since his first. I wonder whether the Guardians will add more RHBs (generally only one against RHP), considering his reverse split since last year (RHBs > .340 wOBA & xwOBA, LHBs .283, .316).
Opp wRC+: 96 (19.3 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.24
DFS Notes: If they open the roof (rarely) this could be the top run environment on the slate, but is still pretty strong at near neutral. Both sides have 4.5 team run totals. I have next to no interest in Bibee and less than that in Lorenzen. Most interestingly will be who’s in the leadoff spot for the Guardians here. They’ll likely be a strong value play, though, as mentioned, Lorenzen has been worse against RHBs. Josh Naylor (135 wRC+, .206 ISO v RHP since LY) has been smoking (145 wRC+ L30 days), but I’m more interested to see RHBs here, if any. Corey Seager (164, .275) is probably the top SS on the board, Evan Carter (167, .307) the best value in this lineup. Batters from either side are between a .295 and .323 wOBA and xwOBA against Bibee since last year.
Update 5:25 EST: Roof closed, no Carter. Hitter friendly ump (Wegner).
Athletics @ Astros
Ross Stripling was trounced by the Rangers last time out, but with only five of the 11 runs earned, his ERA only increases to 5.14 with all of his estimators more than half a run lower, dropping as low as a 3.73 FIP and 3.77 xERA, allowing just 3.3% Barrels/BBE with a 32.7% hard contact rate. He tries to mitigate a 15.3 K% with a walk rate exactly 10 points less and it seems to be working okay, except for a .359 BABIP and 57.9 LOB%. Stripling has never been a flashy type (87 Stuff+), but commands his arsenal well (100 Pitching+, 4.12 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.06
SpAghetti threw too many meatballs, as the Yankees took him deep three times on four barrels last time out, but the 12.3 BB% has been the overall larger problem for a guy who has shown an ability to miss bats (23.6 K%, 12.8 SwStr%, 78.8 Z-Contact%). Estimators range from a 4.42 SIERA to a 5.67 xERA, but pitch modeling oddly sees the command (98 Pitching+ grade) being superior to the pure stuff (66 Stuff+). The cutter (66 PB grade) appears to be the weapon in this arsenal, if there is one.
Opp wRC+: 101 (120, 9.9 K-BB% L7 days)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.74
I knew I’d be on the A’s without even looking at the line (+150) because we’re still dealing with a perception problem. The Astros have gone to LCS like six seasons in a row, while the A’s play in a sewer and hold up the bottom of the division. However, Stripling has an xERA 1.9 runs better than Arrighetti and similar contact neutral estimators too, while the Oakland offense has been perfectly league average and Mason Miller has been far better than Josh Hader.
DFS Notes: SpAghetti is volatile enough at a low price that he could pop a high strikeout game here. I would have some exposure in multi entry. Stripling is undervalued here, but does not have the kind of upside I’m looking for in a DFS pitcher here. As the top offense on the board (4.85), I believe the Astros to be adequately valued, but do consider Kyle Tucker (138 wRC+, .231 ISO v RHP since LY, 208 wRC+ L30 days) to be one of the top bats on the board with Alvarez (163, .294, 89) just a bit lower and Altuve (164, .221, 126) a top middle infield bat tonight. The other side of this is that despite their 3.65 team total, the volatility in Arrighetti make them some of the best GPP bats on the board. RHBs have a .516 wOBA, .487 xwOBA against SpAghetti. Both Rooker (136, .262, 222) and Langeliers (115, .161, 113) are in my single entry lineup tonight. I’m even interested in Brett Harris (135, .333, 126) as a cheap 3B bat.
Update 5:30 EST: No real line movement.
Cardinals @ Angels
Matthew Liberatore has done a good enough job out of the bullpen that the Cardinals are willing to give him another shot in the rotation right now. The problem is that almost all of the information we have on him this season comes as a reliever and he still only has a 10.2 K-BB% and 41.8 Hard%. The 3.54 ERA/3.40 FIP is a result of just one of four barrels leaving the yard, though his ERA matches his xERA too and estimators only run as high as a 4.01 xERA, due to a 54.7 GB%. Pitch modeling believes he’s been fine (96 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+, 4.05 Bot ERA)…as a reliever. He did face 14 White Sox in a start on the 5/5 and may be able to get through the order twice?
Opp wRC+: 105 (92 L7 days)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.51
Jose Soriano has walked just three of his last 46 batters in Pittsburgh and Cleveland, but has also struck out just nine with a 50% hard hit rate. He’s sustained a double digit SwStr% in every start this season and it would be great if he drag his walk rate (11.6%) into the single digits, but the heater is getting punished (18.9%, -2.5 RV/100, 39 PB grade, .529 wOBA, .426 xwOBA). Maybe more sinkers (33.5%, 0.9 RV/100, 52 PB grade)? The curveball is actually his best pitch (31.7%, 1.4 FV/100, 56 grade, 41.7 Whiff%) and one the Cardinals have struggled to hit (-1.1 wCU/C is fourth worst), where they’ve been average against sinkers. Soriano has to do something to improve the contact profile (10.8% Barrels/BBE) that estimates a 4.60 xERA that’s the only indicator above his 4.32 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.93
DFS Notes: I think the workload takes Liberatore out of play tonight, even in a favorable spot. Soriano is volatile enough to help out in an SP2 spot for $6.2K in a favorable spot as well. Both teams are at 4.25 runs, which is the…meh point of the slate. I like Jo Adell here (168 wRC+, .405 ISO v LHP since LY, 134 wRC+ L30 days), who should be fine even after they take Liberatore out. Hopefully he gets two shots at the lefty. Arenado (112) and Burleson (113) are the only projected Cardinals above a 100 wRC+ L30 days. Soriano has a substantial reverse split (RHBs .344 wOBA, .334 xwOBA, LHBs .265, .307). I’m not finding any particular St Louis standouts, but Soriano has enough blowup potential to include a stack or two in multi entry.
Update 5:45 EST: Adell bats 2nd. No Cardinals lineup.
Reds @ Diamondbacks
Graham Ashcraft has struck out just 13 of his last 97 batters with eight walks and hasn’t hit a double digit swinging strike rate since hitting it in all of his first three starts. You’re going to get ground balls (51.2%) and many of them hard hit (45.7%), but with a lack of elevated contact (6.3% Barrels/BBE). His 3.86 ERA matches a 3.86 dERA with estimators only running as high as a 4.17 FIP, but a bit higher over the last month since he stopped missing bats.
Opp wRC+: 87 (10.9 K-BB%, 8.8 HR/FB)
DEF: -11.5
B30: 3.79
Still down nearly two mph, Jordan Montgomery decreased his sinker usage to 23.2% last time out in Cincinnati. It only resulted in 39.1% ground balls and a pair of strikeouts with as many walks, but he didn’t allow a barrel with a season low 25% hard hit rate. Montgomery has just a 10.5 K% (7.1 SwStr%) on the season with all estimators within half a run of his 4.70 ERA. The sinker is his worst graded pitch via Pitching Bot (37) with his changeup the next lowest offering (48). The problem is that those two pitches have consisted of 56.3% of his offerings this season. Maybe throw more curveballs (30%, 2.3 RV/100, 58 grade) against the Reds (-0.23 wCV/C), as he did last time out (31.6%).
Opp wRC+: 85 (85 Road)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.74
DFS Notes: Roof closed is a slightly negative run environment (96 run factor Statcast). At 4.65 implied runs, I’m siding with Arizona bats, if anything here. Ashcraft keeps it on the ground, but RHBs do have a .339 wOBA, .355 xwOBA against him since last year. Christian Walker (120 wRC+, .213 ISO v RHP since LY) may be the best 1B bat and value behind Ohtani at a tougher than usual position tonight. RHBs have a .310 wOBA and .323 xwOBA against Montgomery since last year, but he can keep them off balance with more curveballs again. There’s no way I’m trusting him right now, but the Reds really aren’t that good either.
Update 6:15 EST: Line movement towards Arizona. Reds might have some value at +138 now. Teams have similar numbers against R/LHP, but CIN pen usage has been kind of heavy recently and will probably keep me off, even though they've been much better than ARI overall.
Rockies @ Padres
There’s little reason to waste much time evaluating Dakota Hudson no matter which park he’s pitching in. A -1.3 K-BB% with a 4.91 dERA his only estimator below five, despite 5.9% Barrels/BBE and a 58.6 GB% says it all. None of his pitches reach a 50 grade (PB).
Opp wRC+: 120 (20%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.81
Randy Vasquez is coming off his most efficient start at Wrigley, striking out six of 17 Cubs without a walk and just a single run, which elevated his K-BB to 14.8% through three starts. He’s actually allowed three home runs, but just a pair of barrels (5.1%), generating non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.79 SIERA to a 4.10 xERA well below his 4.50 ERA (.361 BABIP). Pitch modeling is on board (107 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+, 3.71 Bot ERA) in this small sample as well. The biggest question here is workload, as pitch counts have gone from 97 to 72 to 83.
Opp wRC+: 79 (78 Road)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.70
DFS Notes: The Rockies are third lowest on the board at 3.22 implied runs and Vasquez is probably my favorite low priced SP2 tonight. Just two batters projected for Colorado below a 25 K% against RHP since last year overrules any workload concerns I might have here. The Padres have the second highest team total (4.78) in an extremely pitcher friendly park, which says even more about Hudson. As a ground ball heavy pitcher though, you’ll likely want your San Diego exposure in stacks. Everyone projected is above a 90 wRC+ against RHP since last year, but none reach a .200 ISO, which makes stacking even more attractive here. As such, unfortunately, none make my single entry attempt right now.
Update 6:25 EST: Hitter friendly umpire (Marquez)
Royals @ Mariners
Elevating sinkers arm side to opposite handed batters has continued to lead to success for Brady Singer, who has had just one start with more than two runs allowed, two with more than one. He’s struck out 25.1% of batters faced with a 10.8 SwStr% and 90.1 Z-Contact%, but 20.8 CSTr%. They’re taking a lot of those high sinkers for strikes. Who knows if that can continue? He’s still keeping 55.5% of his contact on the ground too. Pitch modeling is not on board, crediting him with just an 85 Stuff+ grade (94 Pitching+) and a 48 grade (PB) on both his sinker (41.3%) and slider (42.2%).
Opp wRC+: 95 (29.1 K%)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 4.45
George Kirby has struck out just seven of 42 in Houston and Minnesota since striking out 12 of 24 Diamondbacks at home. The Twins also homered three times on four barrels. Kirby still has a 22.8 K-BB% with only 32% of his contact reaching a 95 mph EV, producing just a single estimator (3.91 dERA) not more than three quarters of a run below his 4.15 ERA (66.7 LOB%). Including command (106 Pitching+), PitchingBot grades all of Kirby’s pitches from 51 (curve) to 58 (slider), which are actually slightly below last season’s marks.
Opp wRC+: 97 (18.1 K%)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.37
DFS Notes: I like both pitchers in the most pitcher friendly park in the league, but actually favor Singer here because of the matchup. The Royals aren’t a great offensive team, but rarely strike out. The Mariners strike out a ton. Just three projected are below a 28 K% v RHP since last year. I’m playing matchups rather than pitchers tonight with Singer & Vasquez. The Mariners are just below four runs (3.83) with the Royals the low team on the board (3.17). I still like Josh Rojas here (181 wRC+ L30 days) and Cal Raleigh (151), but that’s about it.
Dodgers @ Giants
Three straight quality starts with three runs over 20 innings for Gavin Stone, in which he’s walked just three of 74 batters, but also only struck out 11 with six barrels (10%). The improvement is strictly the product of a .175 BABIP and perfect strand rate. He has a 3.96 Bot ERA and 99 Stuff+ (102 Pitching+) over that span. Improving to an average pitcher is not nothing, but he now has a 3.55 ERA without a non-FIP estimator below four.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 11
B30: 3.65
Jordan Hicks keeps the ball on the ground (55.8%) and that’s about it. He’ll have efforts where he walks batters and some where he doesn’t. The same with the strikeouts, but he’ll keep the ball on the ground. He’s only had one start all year (last time out at Coors) with less than half of his contact on the ground. His sinker & splitter, which make up three quarters of his pitches, both receive a 54 PitchingBot grade and the entire arsenal merits a 118 Stuff+ grade, though the command issues drop it down to a 102 Pitching+. Despite just a 10.9 K-BB%, a 4.10 SIERA is his only estimator above four.
Opp wRC+: 131 (11.6 BB%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.64
Yes, I’m concerned that Hicks could walk the park here, but every single one of his estimators is better than Stone, as well as his pitch modeling. The Dodgers have a large offensive edge and their defense has been surprisingly strong, but that alone shouldn’t be enough to make them such large road favorites here (SFG +160).
DFS Notes: So now DraftKings Sportsbook is listing Stone, but giving a K prop for Yamamoto, while listing the latter in DFS games. Rerunning the numbers with Yamamoto, he’s the best pitcher on the board and I’m probably jamming him into my lineup above Singer. I haven’t made it work yet. However, from a betting standpoint, I still think the Giants have some value at -160, though I would scale my bet back from a full unit to half. Ohtani (206 wRC+, .379 ISO v RHP since LY) is the singular Dodger bat I’m most interested in with a tough environment and ground ball pitcher, but Hicks does have blowup potential with all the walks The Dodgers have a 4.30 team total. I would have some stack exposure, but not too much.
Update 6:35 EST: Yaz leading off. With Yamamoto official now, the line increases 1.42% on the Giants, which makes me suspicious that DraftKings knew he was pitching, but was taking bets with Stone listed anyway.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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